description: a financial crisis that started in 1997, affecting various Asian economies by causing currency devaluations and financial collapse.
224 results
by Russell Napier · 19 Jul 2021 · 511pp · 151,359 words
way - a beginner’s guide Part Two: The road to devaluation Part Three: Devaluation and crisis Part Four: The bottom Publishing details Praise for The Asian Financial Crisis 1995–98 A combination of applied and highly practical economics that through reality bridges the gap between policy theory and actual implications and results, but
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book charts the battle between the new financial capitalism and the various other forms of capitalism that existed then and still exist across Asia. The Asian financial crisis was for many a victory for financial capitalism over the various forms of Asian capitalism. This book will explain why in fact there was
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confrontation in 1998 that left them with significantly undervalued exchange rates and benefiting from the new debt-charged consumption growth of the developed world. The Asian financial crisis set the scene for an age of debt in the developed world and this brought crises that have forced developed governments to confront financial capitalism
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that were ultimately unacceptable to both peoples and their political representatives. When the history of the 21st century is written, it will begin with the Asian financial crisis of 1998, which created global financial conditions that created the age of debt and triggered a structural shift to a new form of social capitalism
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understand this and instead a focus on what most investors call ‘the fundamentals’ that led so many people to lose so much money in the Asian financial crisis. These fundamentals are all derived from analysis of the operations, likely profitability and balance sheets of individual companies. The reasoning goes that a company’s
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For all but the exceptional investor, some consideration of macro factors proved to be essential in assessing the future returns from financial assets. In the Asian financial crisis one learned quickly which macro factors counted and which didn’t. Too late for many, the focus shifted from the ‘miracle’ of high economic
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dominant cultural misconception. A key precept behind the Asian economic miracle was a belief that it was founded on something called Asian values. What the Asian financial crisis revealed was that the Asian values foreign investors believed underpinned the Asian economic miracle were very different from the Asian values perceived by Asians themselves
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impact that was having, directly and indirectly, on the outlook for economic growth and financial stability. If I didn’t know it already, the Asian financial crisis taught me that equity investors need to be very aware of what is happening in credit markets and particularly foreign currency borrowing by the local
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negative direct economic, social and political consequences from this age of debt will likely plague the global outlook for at least another generation. How the Asian financial crisis established the foundations for this new age of debt relates to the policy choices of the Asian authorities that were a direct consequence of the
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It was the perfect storm for the financialisaton of the global economy that brought riches to the few and deep uncertainty to the many. The Asian financial crisis taught many lessons to investors, peoples and policy makers who confused a credit bubble with an economic miracle. It is the greatest of ironies that
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of the developed world. How very different societies and financial systems coped with that inflow, and then its outflow, is the story of the Asian financial crisis. When foreign investors allocated capital to Asian equity markets they did not do so based upon the best opportunities for returns; instead they had to
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in there being a contraction in the supply of money below the potential growth rate. The story of how the Asian economic miracle became the Asian financial crisis is how the managed exchange rates forced many Asian countries from monetary and economic feast to famine. The problem for most of Southeast Asia
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the reality of such a huge change in the monetary system for which investors were entirely unprepared. How the Asian economic miracle turned into the Asian financial crisis was primarily related to how those capital flows slowed and then stopped coming. Working for a stockbroking company in Asia from 1995 to 1998, I
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towards the end of 1996. What I could not have foreseen in June 1995 was that those problems would be big enough to create an Asian financial crisis and, through the political responses to that crisis, change the world of finance for a generation. High quality and low valuations: everyday low prices
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basis was something that I never considered. Rather than warn of the dangers of too much debt and financial engineering, the policy reactions to the Asian financial crisis set up the perfect environment for the asset traders and their financiers to ply their trade on an even grander scale. The “whirlpool of
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The huge amounts of foreign currency debt issued by Asian banks and non-financial corporations was the greatest revelation for almost all investors during the Asian financial crisis. That it came as such a shock was remarkable. There was macro data available for foreign investors on the level of foreign currency debt outstanding
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ideals had chosen a mechanism to enact them that continues to act to destroy them. There were key lessons for politicians to learn from the Asian financial crisis, but they were ignored in Europe and the consequence was a series of financial crises that continue to create a dangerous political backlash that
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usually by fixing the price of something, actually create the uncertainty for the investor that repels capital. The administrative measures that were implemented during the Asian financial crisis acted more to repel than attract capital. This was a major problem when the stability of the exchange rates, given the large current account deficits
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also a dangerous one. The unlisted private sector is a key part of the economy and trends in that sector are always important. In the Asian financial crisis, tracking trends in the unlisted corporate sector was particularly important. In the form of capitalism that then existed, particularly in Southeast Asia, the families
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Korea 7 34 Singapore 6 25 India 3 60 China 0 200 Macau 0 1 Vietnam 0 4 Asia’s economic miracle turned into the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98. In that crisis, many people lost large percentages of their wealth and some lost all of it. However, economic growth did
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of Asia Baa3 −72% Almost all investors are trained to look for bargains when share prices fall precipitously. Even at the earliest stages of the Asian financial crisis, precipitous falls had already occurred. It proved to still be a very bad time to buy equities in general, and bank equities in particular. These
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committed to save the shareholders who were made to take the risk, having taken some substantial rewards of the ownership of equity capital. Throughout the Asian financial crisis there were significant amounts of wishful thinking, probably because detailed analysis to establish value was so difficult. Much of what passed for analysis was trying
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be a blessing in disguise as the company did not find itself holding a dangerous inventory of securities with the attendant credit risk when the Asian financial crisis broke out. However, the company always had ambitions to increase its primary issuance business and decided that it would be good for the research
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February 1998, US$230bn of public funds were mobilised to provide capital for the banking system. The Japanese banking crisis was not caused by the Asian financial crisis, but the growing realisation that the banks would also face major losses on their Asian loan books accelerated the country’s own banking crisis.
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of last week represent revulsion in the absence of banking distress. A study of financial history proved to be very useful to investors during the Asian financial crisis. While some investors thought that something like this had never happened before, others picked up their financial history books. Kindelberger’s classic, Manias, Panics &
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the combined wealth of the four richest men in China exceeded the entire market capitalisation of the Chinese A Share Index in January 1998. The Asian financial crisis represented a hiatus in wealth creation in the region and in particular in China. Availability bias meant that investors in 1998 were focused on that
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continues during that period. Between 23 December 1997 and 12 January 1998, the baht, peso, won and ringgit all reached their lows for the Asian financial crisis. The IMF’s arrival had reduced the prospects of a resort to the monetary printing press and default on foreign currency obligations as the likely
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their US dollar liabilities. The ability to persuade or cajole the bankers into such action was one of the most important actions that prevented this Asian financial crisis from spreading to become a global financial crisis. This turning of the tide of these key capital flows met an incoming flood of new
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exchange rate, this allowed South Korea to also export deflation. The social capital system, with its prevalence to overproduction, did not just survive the Asian financial crisis, but was bolstered by the accelerated entry into the global trading regime of China. What we did not know in 1998 was just how China
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politically dangerous the consequences of such adaptation would become. That the social capital system of North Asia did not collapse or significantly reform in the Asian financial crisis has played a crucial role in dampening inflation and depressing interest rates in the rest of the world. The result was that the other form
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that adaptation produced social changes and financial fragilities that would one day be dangerously exposed. There have been a series of deflationary episodes post the Asian financial crisis which have brought the developed world to the edge of financial collapse and resulted in very material losses for equity investors. Outside of the United
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is delayed due to the flirtation with monetary profligacy and the institutional inertia of implementing the correct legislation. It is a key lesson from the Asian financial crisis for portfolio investors that exchange rates can stabilise in a crisis long before equity prices. I had written in January 1998 that the Asian exchange
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prospect of a run to banknotes from deposits, but often the sums guaranteed are small and local business owners are not reassured. When the Asian financial crisis erupted only South Korea and the Philippines had comprehensive bank deposit guarantee schemes in place. Had there been greater confidence in the deposit as a
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ring, sometimes for years, after the price of equities had bottomed. That markets are amoral is often forgotten and, as we have discovered since the Asian financial crisis, a fact that has major political ramifications. One hundred years after Fashoda 28 July 1998, Regional The scramble for Africa bewildered everyone, from the humblest
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bankers would work. Global policy makers, fearing a global financial collapse, would now act aggressively to reflate the global economy as the ramifications from the Asian financial crisis were increasingly threatening the stability of their own financial systems. Mr Schmidt goes to Singapore 7 August 1998, Global In spite of their high rhetoric
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7 arrived, but of course it did arrive and once again credit flowed freely throughout Asia. Credit officers received some very potent signals during the Asian financial crisis that they were not to forget. That the IMF, supported by developed world governments, could help to reduce their losses in offshore foreign currency lending
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LTCM, but more importantly the interest rate cuts that followed soon after, changed the world. The new financial architecture, which was the legacy of the Asian financial crisis, meant that cheap credit would be abundant as Asia’s booming foreign exchange reserves and lower export prices depressed developed world inflation and interest rates
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That debt boom was a direct consequence of choices made by politicians in response to, and in the aftermath of, the Asian financial crisis. Asia’s massive accumulation of foreign currency reserves The Asian financial crisis built the foundations for the age of debt in myriad ways. Most importantly, it convinced emerging market policy makers, particularly
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level of US$21bn. Reserves had grown strongly since the devaluation and, much to many people’s surprise, had continued to rise through the Asian financial crisis; but evidently the buffer to protect China from a collapse that could subject the country to external diktat was considered too low. From the end
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Cambodia 1 19 Pakistan 1 13 Sri Lanka 2 7 The growth in the foreign reserves of Asia ex China from the end of the Asian financial crisis to the end of 2019 has been US$3,205bn. While Japan has led that rise in reserves, the emerging markets of Asia have
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the initial investment, the vast bulk of it relates to the exchange rate intervention that has been the cornerstone of Asian economic policy after the Asian financial crisis. It was those policy choices, made unilaterally and without the agreement of any of those countries’ trading and business partners, that fuelled the age
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again. The mental scarring among central bankers runs deep and it manifests itself as a fear of deflation from whatever source it comes. From the Asian financial crisis onwards, the world’s central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, fought a battle to prevent deflation. That much of that deflation came
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more favourable conditions to promote financial engineering and to establish the age of debt. That the new financial architecture created from the fires of the Asian financial crisis led to the age of debt is clear if we look at the counterfactual. What would have happened had Asia, including China, moved to
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to all. Progress was not in a straight line and not overnight, but gradually fewer states pursued mercantilist policies. The key legacy of the Asian financial crisis is that Asian nations did consider that the wealth of their nations could only be secured by the mercantilist policy perhaps still best summed up
by Xavier Cirera and William Francis Maloney · 14 Jun 2017 · 373pp · 109,964 words
are giving way for political freedoms previously unthinkable in the country. * * * The growth and development of these countries stunned so many that, during the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the once-celebrated “East Asian Miracle” was said to be “no more than a mirage,” with suggestions that the chickens had finally come home to
by Paul Krugman · 30 Apr 2012 · 267pp · 71,123 words
the past sounds very much like famous last words. Actually, to some of us they sounded like famous last words even at the time: the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 and the persistent troubles of Japan bore a clear resemblance to what happened in the 1930s, raising real questions about whether things
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, Sharron, 6 anti-Keynesians, 26, 93–96, 102–3, 106–8, 110–11, 192 Ardagna, Silvia, 197–99 Argentina, 171 Arizona, housing bubble in, 111 Asian financial crisis of 1997–98, 91 asset-backed securities, 54, 55 auction rate securities, 63 Austerians, 188–207 creditors’ interests favored by, 206–7 supposed empirical evidence
by Aaron Brown and Eric Kim · 10 Oct 2011 · 483pp · 141,836 words
Wall Street abuses such as the Orange County bankruptcy, nor the non–Wall Street financial firms like Enron, nor the damage overseas as with the Asian financial crisis, nor the ones that entered more people’s homes like the Internet stock collapse and the mutual fund timing scandal. First, let me reiterate that
by Maneet Ahuja, Myron Scholes and Mohamed El-Erian · 29 May 2012 · 302pp · 86,614 words
he loved, where there were essentially no veterans let alone experts. Interesting things began to happen. Just before Weinstein joined Deutsche, there was the 1997 Asian financial crisis, where Korean banks verged on collapse. Then Thailand couldn’t pay its debts. Then a few months later, Russia defaulted on its debt, indirectly leading
by Adam Tooze · 15 Nov 2021 · 561pp · 138,158 words
Angola, 156, 161, 256, 258–59 Anthropocene, 22–23, 47, 189, 292 Argentina, 156, 158, 163, 171, 260, 265 Armenia, 267 artificial intelligence (AI), 235 Asian financial crisis (1990s), 3 Asian flu pandemic (1957–1958), 45 Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), 206 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), 206–8 AstraZeneca, 238–39
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, Mario, 130, 178, 182, 285, 286, 288 Dutch State Treasury Agency, 283 Duterte, Rodrigo, 11, 83 East Africa, 102, 189 East Asia, 5, 233 East Asian financial crisis (1997), 156 Eastern Europe, 190, 280 East-West conflict narrative, 68 Ebola, 30–31, 35, 46, 52, 236, 247 Ecuador, 8, 71, 161, 163–64
by Scott McCleskey · 10 Mar 2011
, 48 taxpayers’ funds collateralized, 39 American Association of Retired Persons (AARP), 105 American Bankers Association, 58, 61–62 Anti-Trust Division of Justice, 17–18 Asian financial crisis, 16 asset backed securities (ABSs), 32–33, 36, 181 Associated Press, 87, 171 Australia, 97, 136 B Bank for International Settlements, 38, 43, 185 Bank
by Kwasi Kwarteng · 12 May 2014 · 632pp · 159,454 words
proud’ of his adoption of an ‘expansionary fiscal policy’. This policy, in his opinion, had ensured that China ‘not only overcame the impact of the Asian financial crisis, but was able to use the opportunity to achieve unprecedented economic growth’.37 In a sense, the Chinese had acted more consistently with Keynesian principles
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and the New World Order, London, 2011, p. 125. 26Krugman, Depression Economics, pp. 144, 141. 27Xiao-Ming Li, ‘China’s Macroeconomic Stabilization Policies Following the Asian Financial Crisis: Success or Failure?’, Asian Survey, vol. 40, no. 6 (November–December 2000), pp. 938–57, at p. 938. 28Economist, ‘East Asia’s Whirlwind Hits the
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finances à la Haye: Les Douze ont progressé vers l’union monétaire’, 1 December 1991. Li, Xiao-Ming, ‘China’s Macroeconomic Stabilization Policies Following the Asian Financial Crisis: Success or Failure?’, Asian Survey, vol. 40, no. 6 (November–December 2000), pp. 938–57. Los Angeles Times, ‘Fears of Dot-Com Crash, Version 2
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-Mexican Mining Association, 56 Annan, Lord, 172 Antwerp, 20, 22 ‘Spanish fury’, 12 Archivo General de Indias, 19 Argentina, 84–5 army, payments to, 26 Asian financial crisis, 289–93, 296 ‘assignats’, 5, 45–8, 50 Atahualpa, 15–17 atomic bombs, 153, 192 Attlee, Clement, 175 Attwood, Thomas, 54 austerity, 342–3, 356
by Joseph E. Stiglitz · 15 Mar 2015 · 409pp · 125,611 words
advice of the White House Council of Economic Advisers (which I led from 1995 to 1997), and this more than anything else led to the Asian financial crisis. Few policies or actions have greater culpability for that Asian crisis and the global financial crisis of 2008 than the deregulatory policies that Mr. Summers
by Paul Krugman · 28 Jan 2020 · 446pp · 117,660 words
they say in New Jersey, you got a problem with that? 4 Bubble and Bust THE SUM OF ALL FEARS DOES ANYONE STILL REMEMBER THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS OF THE late 1990s? With everything that has happened since, it can seem like ancient history. Yet for those who followed it, it was a
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