Science Fictions: How Fraud, Bias, Negligence, and Hype Undermine the Search for Truth
by Stuart Ritchie · 20 Jul 2020
their name – and that the people who make important decisions can easily keep in mind. When they published a major paper in 2010, the economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff thought they’d hit the stylised-fact jackpot. For two years, politicians had been frantically trying to address the fallout of the
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‘working paper’ for a while (as is normal in economics, as we’ll see in the final chapter), but it was eventually officially published as Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, ‘Growth in a Time of Debt’, American Economic Review 100, no. 2 (May 2010): pp. 573–78; https://doi.org
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/bet075 6. Reinhart and Rogoff admitted the Excel error, though they didn’t agree with the critics on many of their other points: Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, ‘Reinhart-Rogoff Response to Critique’, Wall Street Journal, 16 April 2013; https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/04/16/reinhart-rogoff-response-to- critique
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studies Stapel’s environmental studies randomisation Randy Schekman Reagan, Ronald recommendation algorithms red grapes Redfield, Rosemary Reflections on the Decline of Science in England (Babbage) Reinhart, Carmen Rennie, Drummond rent-seeking replication; replication crisis Bargh’s priming study Bem’s precognition studies biology and Carney and Cuddy’s power posing studies chemistry
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't
by Nate Silver · 31 Aug 2012 · 829pp · 186,976 words
a financial crisis—everyone trying to figure out who owes what to whom—can produce hangovers that persist for a very long time. The economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, studying volumes of financial history for their book This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, found that financial crises typically
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more than House B, which has a kitchen with no gadgets. But you don’t know what the price of a house should be.” 86. Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, “The Aftermath of the Financial Crisis,” Working Paper 14656, NBER Working Paper Series, National Bureau of Economic Research, January 2009
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. http://www.bresserpereira.org.br/terceiros/cursos/Rogoff.Aftermath_of_Financial_Crises.pdf. 87. Carmen M. Reinhart and Vincent R. Reinhart, “After the Fall,” presentation at Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Jackson Hole Symposium, August 2010. http://www.kcfed.org/publicat/sympos/2010
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Recession rec.sport.baseball, 78 Red Cross, 158 Red River of the North, 177–79 regression analysis, 100, 401, 402, 498, 508 regulation, 13, 369 Reinhart, Carmen, 39–40, 43 religion, 13 Industrial Revolution and, 6 religious extremism, 428 religious wars of sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, 2, 6 Remote Sensing Systems, 394
Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider’s View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead
by Kenneth Rogoff · 27 Feb 2025 · 330pp · 127,791 words
on international macroeconomic and financial issues. It is not that I ever believed my ironically titled 2009 tome This Time Is Different (co-authored with Carmen Reinhart), which was seven years in the making, would permanently awaken the world to the risks of debt-fueled financial and spending excess. Countless readers enjoyed
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hyperinflation in the 1970s-1990s. Eventually, the dollar loses Europe but gains much of Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Sources: Based on Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Kenneth S. Rogoff, “Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes,” in Handbook of International Economics, vol. 6, ed. Gita Gopinath, Elhanan Helpman, and Kenneth Rogoff (
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This forced the banks to cut back on lending in other areas, thereby considerably amplifying the economic cost to the country as a whole.33 Carmen Reinhart and I discussed the Japanese experience in the context of other post-war financial crises in our 2009 book This Time Is Different. There is
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and programs. Could the yen ever have become a challenger to the dollar? Remarkably, in the exchange rate classification I developed with Ethan Ilzetzki and Carmen Reinhart, which was used to construct the map in figure 1 (in chapter 1), not a single one of the 186+ countries in the world chooses
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range of astute observations,22 though at the time this view was still way outside the consensus among business economists. At the beginning of 2008, Carmen Reinhart and I presented a scholarly paper at the American Economic Association meetings in New Orleans in which we identified concrete quantitative markers for a financial
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Greek debt did not lead to an immediate stampede out of all southern European debt. He mentioned a short thought piece I had written with Carmen Reinhart in 2010 that argued that very high debt is associated with lower growth.28 I said that although I believed that to be true as
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fall in the dollar would actually be a relief, though easier to digest if it happened slowly. It was an interesting insight; my IMF colleague Carmen Reinhart had written a very influential, and now quite famous, paper with Guillermo Calvo emphasizing exactly this issue. The paper, entitled “Fear of Floating,” argued that
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the freedom offered to the chief economist, it still felt too constraining. At the same time, I was very excited about my research project with Carmen Reinhart on eight centuries of debt, inflation, and financial crises—research that ultimately led to our 2009 book This Time Is Different, which improbably reached number
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Japan –59 Zimbabwe (1970–2009) 419,999,831,580,067,000,000,000,000,000 Venezuela (1970–2024) 82,409,318,181,818,100 Sources: Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, “The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 119, no. 1 (February 2004): 1–48; Ethan Ilzetski
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, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff, “Exchange Rate Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 134, no. 2 (May 2019): 599–646.
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that the IMF began to include more nuance in its characterization of exchange rate regimes to better fit reality. In an article published in 2004, Carmen Reinhart and I showed that virtually half the countries that reported to have a flexible exchange rate arrangement in their official pronouncements to the IMF had
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in regulatory failures, failures that all the borrowing from abroad would inevitably amplify; that epiphany came later while I was working on my book with Carmen Reinhart ahead of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. Still, it seemed Panglossian to just assert that the U.S. current account was not telling us
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their trades, including the exact time stamp, the quantity of bitcoins traded, and the fiat currency used to make the trade, Clemens Graf von Luckner, Carmen Reinhart, and I investigated whether this trade information could be used to determine whether bitcoins are being used for transactions in general and international transactions in
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not over the next decade. And even if very high debt does not contribute to inflation pressures, it can create other problems. In 2010, when Carmen Reinhart and I first conjectured that very high debt might affect growth, it caused a firestorm of criticism. The controversy continues to this day, mainly in
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; it was not a particularly large audience, perhaps sixty to seventy people including a couple of young journalists. My presentation focused on a research paper Carmen Reinhart and I had written back in January 2008, which (as mentioned in chapter 4) pointed to flashing red lights suggesting that the United States might
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Didn’t Know About Henry VIII,” Time, June 24, 2009. 3. Kenneth Rogoff, The Curse of Cash (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2016). 4. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2009). 5. Kenneth Rogoff, Barbara Rossi, and
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Quarterly Review, June 2024, 9. 10. See McGuire, von Peter, and Zhu, “International Finance Through the Lens of BIS Statistics,” table 6C. 11. Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Kenneth S. Rogoff, “Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes,” in Handbook of International Economics, vol. 6, ed. Gita Gopinath, Elhanan Helpman, and Kenneth S. Rogoff
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of Invoicing Currency in Global Trade: New Evidence,” Journal of International Economics 136 (May 2022): 677–719. 14. Figure 1 is updated from Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff, “Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 134, no. 2 (May 2019): 599–646
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(October 2024). 18. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, International Migrant Stock (New York, United Nations, 2019). 19. Rong Qian, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff, “On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crises: Elusive or Illusion?,” in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, ed. Daron Acemoglu and Michael Woodford
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Texas. Peter Baker and Susan Glasser, The Man Who Ran Washington: The Life and Times of James A. Baker III (New York: Doubleday, 2020). 16. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2009). 17. Kenneth Rogoff, “Time-Series Studies
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Reserves” (COFER), IMF Data (International Monetary Fund). 10. Like figure 1, figure 6 is based on the algorithm and data set (updated) from Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff, “Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 134, no. 2 (May 2019): 599–646
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. 11. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook (April 2024). 12. Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Kenneth S. Rogoff, “Why Is the Euro Punching Below Its Weight?,” Economic Policy 35, no. 103 (July 2020): 405–460. 13. Data source for
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Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle?,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2002, no. 2, 147–209. 22. Stephen Mihm, “Dr. Doom,” New York Times, August 15, 2008. 23. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, “Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison,” American Economic Review 98, no. 2 (May
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ways that were not later open to Ireland. 27. For example, Kenneth Rogoff, “The Euro’s Pig-Headed Masters,” Project Syndicate, June 3, 2011. 28. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, “Growth in a Time of Debt,” American Economic Review 100, no. 2 (May 2010): 573–578 (and 2013 online errata). 29. Kenneth
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Investment Conference (London, July 26, 2012). 31. Chris Miller, Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology (New York: Scribner, 2022). 32. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, “Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten,” in Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, ed. Stijn Claessens
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World Tables (Groningen Growth and Development Centre). 7. Here, I am defining the dollar bloc as in figure 1, using the algorithm from Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff, “Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 134, no. 2 (May 2019): 599–646
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later, in 2014, President Obama appointed Fischer as vice chair of the Federal Reserve, a position he served with great distinction. 7. Guillermo Calvo and Carmen Reinhart, “Fear of Floating,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 117, no. 2 (May 2002): 379–408. Chapter 7. The People’s Bank of China 1. Menzie Chinn
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Peter Henry, “The Global Infrastructure Gap: Potential, Perils, and a Framework for Distinction,” Journal of Economic Literature 61, no. 4 (December 2023): 1318–1358. 21. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2009). 22. The importance to the U
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recessions” in the context of Japan. Richard Koo, Balance Sheet Recession: Japan’s Struggle with Uncharted Economics and Its Global Implications (New York: Wiley, 2003). Carmen Reinhart and I provided a large multicountry database that allows one to not only examine all the qualitative features of financial crises but also compare quantitative
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and Broad Dollar Movements in Explaining Daily Exchange Rate Changes,” Staff Report No. 828 (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, November 2017). 4. Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and I conjectured in 2020 that the low volatility of major currency exchange rates was just a manifestation of the fact that so many central
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rise sharply (and so it has—in the case of the yen and even the renminbi, far more than we might have guessed). Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff, “Will the Secular Decline in Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive COVID-19?,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2020, no. 1, 279
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(Fall 1995): 73–96. 14. Maurice Obstfeld, “The Logic of Currency Crises,” Cahiers économiques et monétaires 43 (1994): 189–213. Chapter 12. Hyperinflation 1. See Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2009), chap. 12. 2. A partial list
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-up to the sanctions. Dany Bahar et al., “Impact of the 2017 Sanctions on Venezuela: Revisiting the Evidence,” policy brief (Brookings Institution, May 2019). 10. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, “Venezuela’s Spectacular Underperformance,” Project Syndicate, October 13, 2014. 11. Vanessa Buschschlüter, “Venezuela Crisis: 7.1 Million People Leave Country Since 2015
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, 1999): 157–166. 4. Currency conversions and per capita GDP for Indonesia (series: CCUSSP02IDM650N and NYGDPPCAPKDIDN), FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). 5. See Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2009). The chaos surrounding Indonesia’s 1966
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company Headlong. 2. Joseph Stiglitz, Globalization and Its Discontents (New York: Norton, 2002). 3. “Criticism for the Buenos Aires Consensus,” MercoPress, November 2, 2003. 4. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, “The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 119, no. 1 (February 2004): 1–48. When one
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norm, worked with Buzan on the world mind games, among other projects.) 10. Reinhart and Rogoff, “The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements”; Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff, “Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 134, no. 2 (May 2019): 599–646
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23, 2023. 21. Jonathan Wheatley and Adrienne Klasa, “Cryptocurrencies: Developing Countries Provide Fertile Ground,” Financial Times, September 5, 2021. 22. Clemens Graf von Luckner, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Kenneth S. Rogoff, “Decrypting New Age International Capital Flows,” Journal of Monetary Economics 138 (September 2023) 104–122. 23. From my correspondence in December
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for figure 12: “Balance on Current Account, NIPA’s” (series: NETFI) and “Gross Domestic Product” (series: GDP), FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). 2. Carmen Reinhart and I argued that these massive deficits, along with the concomitant run-ups in housing and equity prices, should have been recognized as signaling that
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the United States was at high risk of a financial crisis, and indeed the global financial crisis followed a year later. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, “Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison” (paper presented at the American Economic Association
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Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic,” special issue, Economic Policy Review (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) 28, no. 1 (June 2022): 93–113. 11. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2009). 12. Richard Posner, “Economists on the
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Kydland and Edward Prescott, “Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans,” Journal of Political Economy 85, no. 3 (June 1977): 473–492. 9. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, “Shifting Mandates: The Federal Reserve’s First Centennial,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 103, no. 3 (May 2013): 48–54. 10
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Japan’s Seductive Widow-Maker Trade,” Project Syndicate, October 5, 2023. 13. Julian Nowogrodzki, “Cash for Catching Scientific Errors,” Nature, August 19, 2024. 14. Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, “Growth in a Time of Debt,” American Economic Review 100, no 2 (May 2010): 573–578 (and 2013 online errata). Writing in
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error (and only one), though that particular issue happened to be of only minor quantitative significance. Moreover, a much more complete version of the paper—Carmen Reinhart, Vincent Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff, “Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes Since 1800,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 26, no. 3 (Summer 2012): 69–86, had no
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Farhi and Matteo Maggiori, “A Model of the International Monetary System,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 133, no. 1 (February 2018): 295–355, and Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff, “Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 134, no. 2 (May 2019): 599–646
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(Governor, Reserve Bank of India), 24, 229 Ramaswamy, Vivek, 258 ransomware, 193 Reagan, Ronald (President, United States), 19, 215, 221, 257 real (Brazil), 140, 142 Reinhart, Carmen, 6, 40, 48, 55, 57, 160, 164, 193, 279, 286, 307 n.4 “Fear of Floating,” 80–81 This Time Is Different, ix, 38, 82
Paper Promises
by Philip Coggan · 1 Dec 2011 · 376pp · 109,092 words
, for example, the Austro-Hungarian Empire defaulted or rescheduled its debt five times. In their magisterial study of the subject, This Time Is Different,15 Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff describe a cycle of sovereign defaults, with peaks in the Napoleonic Wars, the 1820s through to the 1840s, the 1870s to the
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, all the while receiving less than usual from their overpriced holdings.’1 It is not just investors who are fooled. Policymakers can be too. As Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff put it, ‘Debt-fuelled booms all too often provide false affirmation of a government’s policies, a financial institution’s ability to
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of countries to follow prudent financial policies proved no more permanent than the willingness of most January revellers to follow their New Year’s resolutions. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff recount that sovereign default has occurred in a number of waves, starting with the Napoleonic Wars.1 In the 1840s cycle, nearly
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did manage to reduce their debt burdens after the Second World War, under the auspices of the Bretton Woods system. In a March 2011 paper, Carmen Reinhart and Belen Sbrancia argue that the success of this debt-reduction programme was down to ‘financial repression’.12 Domestic investors such as pension funds were
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. 13 Ian Mortimer, The Perfect King: The Life of Edward III, the Father of the English Nation, London, 2006. 14 Macdonald, A Free Nation. 15 Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different, Princeton, 2009. 16 All quotes from Ron Chernow, Alexander Hamilton, London, 2004. 17 From ibid. 18 Homer and
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the New Global Currency, New Haven, Conn., 2008. 7. BLOWING BUBBLES 1 Jeremy Grantham, ‘Night of the Living Fed’, GMO Quarterly Letter, October 2010. 2 Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different, Princeton, 2009. 3 Richard Duncan, The Dollar Crisis, rev. edn, New York, 2005; Richard Duncan, The Corruption of
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lower returns. 10 See Peter Morris, ‘Private Equity, Public Loss?’, Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation, July 2010. 10. NOT SO RISK-FREE 1 Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different, Princeton, 2009. 2 Alexander Sack, quoted in ‘Unfinished Business: Ten Years of Dropping the Debt’, Jubilee Debt Campaign
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, 2009. 12 Eamonn Butler, ‘Ludwig von Mises – A Primer’, IEA Occasional Paper 143, 2010. 13 Richard Duncan, The Corruption of Capitalism, Hong Kong, 2009. 14 Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different, Princeton, 2009. 15 This policy might not have worked. Emerging markets might not have wanted to absorb so
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21st Century, rev. edn, New Haven, Conn., 2010. 11 A long-standing deal has seen Americans head the World Bank and Europeans the IMF. 12 Carmen Reinhart and Belen Sbrancia, ‘The Liquidation of Government Debt’, NBER Working Paper 16893, March 2011. 13 Russell Napier, ‘Bretton Woods on Speed’, CLSA research note, November
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Lines: How Hidden Fractures Threaten the World Economy, Princeton, 2010. Reid, Michael, Forgotten Continent: The Battle for Latin America’s Soul, New Haven, Conn., 2007. Reinhart, Carmen and Rogoff, Kenneth, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton, 2009. Shiller, Robert J., Irrational Exuberance, Princeton, 2000. Skeel, David A. Jr
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(QE) Quincy, Josiah railway mania Rajan, Raghuram Rand, Ayn Reagan, Ronald real bills theory real interest rates Record, Neil Reformation, the Reichsbank Reichsmark Reid, Jim Reinhart, Carmen renminbi Rentenmark rentiers reparations Republican Party reserve currency retail price index retirement revaluation Revolutionary War Ridley, Matt Roberts, Russell Rogoff, Kenneth Romanovs Roosevelt, Franklin D
Expected Returns: An Investor's Guide to Harvesting Market Rewards
by Antti Ilmanen · 4 Apr 2011 · 1,088pp · 228,743 words
). Figure 17.4. Sustained inflation only became pervasive in the 20th century: Median inflation rate (5-year moving average) for all countries, 1500–2010. Sources: Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff (2008), “This time is different: A panoramic view of eight centuries of financial crises,” NBER working paper 13882, March 2008
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), “This time is different chartbook: Country histories on debt, default, and financial crises,” NBER working paper 15815. Reproduced by permission of Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff. During the gold standard (Britain adopted it in 1717, other developed countries in the 19th century), inflations and deflations took turns
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amply rewarded, Treasuries may provide neither safety nor performance in the coming decade. Figure 27.6. Global perspective on inflation and external default histories. Source: Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff (2008), “This time is different: A panoramic view of eight centuries of financial crises,” NBER working paper 13882. Reproduced by
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permission of Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff. Figure 27.7. Sovereign CDS spreads, July 2007–July 2010. Source: Bloomberg. Finally, the last innings of the debt supercycle
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am grateful to Michael Afreh (Nomura), Andrew Ang, David Blitz (Robeco), Giuliano de Rossi (UBS), Eric Falkenstein, Kenneth Froot, Robin Greenwood, Campbell Harvey, Sharon Kozicki, Carmen Reinhart, Matti Suominen, Arthur Warga, and Mungo Wilson for sending me some of their research data. I also thank Professors Kenneth French, Morris Davis, Amit Goyal
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-Term Asset Return Study: From the Golden to the Grey Age, Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research. Reinhart, Carmen M. (2010), “This time is different chartbook: Country histories on debt, default, and financial crises,” NBER working paper 15815. Reinhart, Carmen M.; and Kenneth S. Rogoff (2008), “This time is different: A panoramic view of eight
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centuries of financial crises,” NBER working paper 13882. Reinhart, Carmen M.; and Kenneth S. Rogoff (2009), This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of
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Financial Folly, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Reinhart, Carmen M.; and Kenneth S. Rogoff (2010), “From financial crash to debt crisis,” NBER working paper
The Shifts and the Shocks: What We've Learned--And Have Still to Learn--From the Financial Crisis
by Martin Wolf · 24 Nov 2015 · 524pp · 143,993 words
these unexpected economic developments, crisis-hit countries have been forced to struggle with worse fiscal positions than they had previously imagined. As the work of Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, both now at Harvard University, has shown, fiscal crises are a natural concomitant of financial crises, largely because of the impact on
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below, into premature retrenchment. Nobody should be surprised by the huge fiscal deterioration that followed the crisis. In their seminal book, This Time is Different, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff argue that: ‘Declining revenues and higher expenditures, owing to a combination of bailout costs and higher transfer payments and debt service costs
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had too much public debt, even though the ratio of debt to GDP has remained below its average of the past three centuries. Research by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, both at Harvard University and celebrated as authors of This Time is Different, a justly influential book on financial and fiscal crises
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. The preface to Why Globalization Works discusses my intellectual history. See ibid., pp. ix – xviii. 10. On the frequency of financial crises since 1980, see Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2009) pp. 73– 5. 11
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Charles P. Kindleberger and Robert Z. Aliber, Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, 6th edn (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2011). 7. See Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2009), pp. 231–2. 8. International
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.imf.org, Box 1.1. The data exclude discretionary tightening. So they are likely to exaggerate the net effect of discretionary policy on deficits. 48. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2009), p. 231. See also Table 14
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. 12, 11 July–4 August 2013, pp. 20–22, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2013/jul/11/how-austerity-has-failed/?pagination=false. 23. Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, ‘Growth in a Time of Debt’, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 15639, January 2010, www.nber.org. 24
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: Unconventional Monetary Policy after the Crisis’, Andrew Crockett Memorial Lecture, Bank for International Settlement, 23 June 2013. http://www.bis.org/events/agm2013/sp130623.pdf. Reinhart, Carmen M. and Kenneth S. Rogoff. This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2009
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). Reinhart, Carmen M. and Kenneth S. Rogoff. ‘Growth in a Time of Debt’, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 15639, January 2010. www.nber.org.
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European Commission, Michael Pettis of Peking University, Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Raghuram Rajan, governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Carmen Reinhart of Harvard University, Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University, Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University, Hans-Werner Sinn of CESifo, George Soros, Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University
Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance
by Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Mihm · 10 May 2010 · 491pp · 131,769 words
most visible proponents of behavioral economics; Joseph Schumpeter, the grand theorist of capitalist “creative destruction”; and economists of a historical bent, from Charles Kindleberger to Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. Their disparate strands of thought inform our idiosyncratic approach to understanding crises. When Markets Behave Badly Crisis economics is the study of
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up to the recent disaster, its spirit of inquiry animates much of our thinking. So too does it animate the systematic and rigorous work of Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. In This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (2009), these two economists assembled a massive collection of historical data on
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sector. The recession wasn’t driven by monetary tightening; it was a “balance sheet” recession driven by a staggering accumulation of debt. Recent research by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff suggests that a “balance sheet” recession can lead to a weak recovery, as every sector of the economy “deleverages” and cuts down
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and debate. Academic colleagues who have influenced my thoughts on international macroeconomics and financial crises include—among many others—Jeff Sachs, Paul Krugman, Ken Rogoff, Carmen Reinhart, Nassim Taleb, Raghu Rajan, Jeffrey Frankel, Richard Portes, Joe Stiglitz, Niall Ferguson, Robert Shiller, Hyun Shin, Barry Eichengreen, Willem Buiter, Simon Johnson, Bob Mundell, Joseph
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, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Federal Reserve Board, online at http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2007/200720/200720pap.pdf. 18 “This time is different”: Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2009). 20 Before the rise
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Philippe Jorion and Gaiyan Zhang, “Credit Contagion from Counterparty Risk,” Journal of Finance 64 (2009): 2053-87. For historical parallels, see Graciela L. Kaminsky, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Carlos A. Vegh, “The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 17(2003): 51-74. 117 “It must be a very long
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. 195 ratings agencies’ rise: The following account relies heavily on Richard Sylla, “An Historical Primer on the Business of Credit Ratings,” in Richard M. Levich, Carmen Reinhart, and Giovanni Majnoni, eds., Ratings, Rating Agencies, and the Global Financial System (Boston: Kluwer, 2002); Matthew Richardson and Lawrence J. White, “The Rating Agencies: Is
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Crises.” In Richard Portes and Alexander K. Swoboda, eds., Threats to International Financial Stability. London: Cambridge University Press, 1987, 10-58. Felton, Andrew, and Carmen M. Reinhart, eds. The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century. A VoxEU.org Publication. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 2008. Online at http://www
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. “Credit Contagion from Counterparty Risk.” Journal of Finance 64 (2009): 2053-87. Kaminsky, Graciela L., and Carmen M. Reinhart. “On Crises, Contagion, and Confusion.” Journal of International Economics 51 (2000): 145-68. Kaminsky, Graciela L., Carmen M. Reinhart, and Carlos A. Vegh. “The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 17 (2003
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2005. Online at http://www.nber.org/papers/w11728. Subsequently published as “Has Finance Made the World Riskier?” European Financial Management 12 (2006): 499-533. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. “Growth in a Time of Debt.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper no. 15639, January 2010. Online at http
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too-big-to-fail firms see also self-regulation; specific regulatory agencies Regulation D Regulation T Regulation Z (Truth in Lending) regulatory arbitrage regulatory capture Reinhart, Carmen renminbi, Chinese Republic (Plato) repurchase agreements (repos) Reserve Primary Fund reverse auction r evolving-door appointments Ricardo, David risk: aversion to Basel accords and counterparty
The Curse of Cash
by Kenneth S Rogoff · 29 Aug 2016 · 361pp · 97,787 words
where long-run growth is headed, especially since slow growth periods almost invariably follow deep systemic financial crises (as documented in my 2009 book with Carmen Reinhart).4 Even if real interest rates eventually do rise a couple of percentage points to more normal levels, it is now clear that they can
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markets that seem to be doing just fine. Yet it is exactly toward the end of long booms that risks start becoming the greatest, as Carmen Reinhart and I emphasize in our 2009 book on eight centuries of financial crises.5 Beyond that, crafting good financial regulation is not easy, and there
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., and John C. Williams. 2000. “Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Era.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 32 (4): 936–66. Reinhart, Carmen M., Vincent Reinhart, and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2015. “Dealing with Debt.” Journal of International Economics 96, suppl. 1 (July): S43–S55
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. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2002. “The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation.” NBER Working Paper 8963 (June). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of
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First Centennial.” American Economic Review 103 (3): 48–54. ———. 2014. “Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes.” American Economic Review 104 (5): 50–55. Reinhart, Carmen M., and M. Belen Sbrancia. 2015. “The Liquidation of Government Debt.” Economic Policy 30 (82): 291–333. Rey, Hélène. 2013. “Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global
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-frequency identification (RFID) chips, 166 RAND Corporation, 49, 69 real-time clearing, 67, 92, 94–95, 102–3, 115 Reifschneider, David L., 133, 244n11, 245n17 Reinhart, Carmen M., 122, 177, 243n3, 245n18, 255n10 Reinhart, Vincent, 243n3 reverse money laundering, 4, 80 Rey, Hélène, 207 Ricardian equivalence, 246n25 Robinson, James, 70 Rockoff, Hugh
EuroTragedy: A Drama in Nine Acts
by Ashoka Mody · 7 May 2018
often led initially to large inflows and later to financial problems.”137 Sims also warned of the risk of sovereign defaults. In August 2003, economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff noted that Greece and Portugal belonged to the small club of “serial defaulters.”138 Both had defaulted on external creditors multiple times
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.” Lehman’s failure, he said, was necessary to return to a leaner and more effective financial system. Rogoff was basing his comments on research with Carmen Reinhart, his colleague while at the IMF and now an economics professor at the University of Maryland. They had recently established through careful historical analysis that
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, and by lowering default risk, the write-off reduced the interest rates the government had to pay on its debt to private creditors.93 Economists Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch have documented that such benefits of debt forgiveness have applied in a large number of cases. They report that in the 1920s
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, February 10. http://ec.europa.eu/archives/commission_ 2010-2014/rehn/documents/cab20130213_en.pdf. references 597 Reinhart, Carmen, Kenneth Rogoff, and Miguel Savastano. 2003. “Debt Intolerance.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1: 1–74. Reinhart, Carmen, and Christoph Trebesch. 2016. “Sovereign Debt Relief and Its Aftermath.” Journal of the European Economic Association 14
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and, 457 in Portugal, 293 productivity growth and, 396 taxation and, 3 3 percent rule and, 89b Yellen and, 221 Rehn, Olli, 274, 289–290 Reinhart, Carmen, 184, 185, 213, 415 Renzi, Matteo call for less austerity, 350–353 Draghi’s meeting with, 360–361 effort at preventing Italy’s crisis, 386
House of Debt: How They (And You) Caused the Great Recession, and How We Can Prevent It From Happening Again
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the United Kingdom, in particular—experienced the largest decline in growth during the recession. Another set of economic downturns we can examine are what economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff call the “big five” postwar banking crises in the developed world: Spain in 1977, Norway in 1987, Finland and Sweden in 1991
…
have significantly accelerated the slow economic recovery if he had better addressed the overhang of mortgage debt left when housing prices collapsed.”23 In 2011 Carmen Reinhart concluded that “a restructuring of U.S. household debt, including debt forgiveness for low-income Americans, would be most effective in speeding economic growth.”24
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World Economic Outlook: Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain, April 2012. 16. Mervyn King, “Debt Deflation: Theory and Evidence,” European Economic Review 38 (1994): 419–45. 17. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, “Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison,” American Economic Review 98 (2008): 339–44. 18
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. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009). 19. Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor, “When Credit Bites
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, “Resolving Debt Overhang: Political Constraints in the Aftermath of Financial Crises,” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, forthcoming. 23. Ibid. 24. These are financial crises defined by Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff. Chapter Twelve 1. See Heidi Shierholz, Natalie Sabadish, and Nicholas Finio, “The Class of 2013: Young Graduates Still Face Dim Job Prospects
…
–9, 44–45, 192n20; inflation in, 153–62; levered-losses framework of, 46–59, 134, 170; risk sharing and, 168–87. See also Great Recession Reinhart, Carmen, 7–8, 142 renegotiation of mortgages: Chapter 13 bankruptcy cram-downs and, 146–47, 202n37, 203n44; FHFA failures in, 140–42; MBS servicers and, 137
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