David Spiegelhalter Concepts

The Art of Statistics: How to Learn From Data

by David Spiegelhalter · 2 Sep 2019 · 404pp · 92,713 words

Copyright Copyright © 2019 by David Spiegelhalter Cover design by Chin-Yee Lai Cover image © by IAISI/Getty Images Cover copyright © 2019 Hachette Book Group, Inc. Hachette Book Group supports the right

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12 How Things Go Wrong CHAPTER 13 How We Can Do Statistics Better CHAPTER 14 In Conclusion DISCOVER MORE ABOUT THE AUTHOR GLOSSARY ALSO BY DAVID SPIEGELHALTER NOTES To statisticians everywhere, with their endearing traits of pedantry, generosity, integrity, and desire to use data in the best way possible Explore book giveaways

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-score can also be defined in terms of a population mean μ and standard deviation σ, in which case zi = (xi–μ)/σ. Also by David Spiegelhalter The Norm Chronicles Notes INTRODUCTION 1. The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver (Penguin, 2012) is an excellent introduction to how statistical science can

The Art of Statistics: Learning From Data

by David Spiegelhalter · 14 Oct 2019 · 442pp · 94,734 words

History of Brexit From Brentry to Backstop Kevin O’Rourke Our Universe: An Astronomer’s Guide Jo Dunkley The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data David Spiegelhalter Chinese Thought: From Confucius to Cook Ding Roel Sterckx This is Shakespeare Emma Smith THE BEGINNING Let the conversation begin … Follow the Penguin twitter.com

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Books is part of the Penguin Random House group of companies whose addresses can be found at global.penguinrandomhouse.com. First published 2019 Text copyright © David Spiegelhalter, 2019 The moral right of the author has been asserted Cover by Matthew Young Book design by Matthew Young ISBN: 978-0-241-25875-0

Covid by Numbers

by David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters · 28 Oct 2021

DAVID SPIEGELHALTER AND ANTHONY MASTERS Covid by Numbers Making Sense of the Pandemic with Data Contents ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 1 Introduction THE VIRUS 2 How did the pandemic develop?

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are the projections from epidemic models? 27 What is going to happen in the future? 28 Postscript GLOSSARY NOTES INDEX About the Authors Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS OBE is Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication in the Centre for Mathematical Sciences at the University of Cambridge. His

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History of Brexit From Brentry to Backstop Kevin O’Rourke Our Universe: An Astronomer’s Guide Jo Dunkley The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data David Spiegelhalter Chinese Thought: From Confucius to Cook Ding Roel Sterckx This is Shakespeare Emma Smith What We Really Do All Day Jonathan Gershuny and Oriel Sullivan

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the Penguin Random House group of companies whose addresses can be found at global.penguinrandomhouse.com. First published by Pelican Books in 2021 Text copyright © David Spiegelhalter, Anthony Masters, 2021 The moral right of the authors has been asserted Cover by Olg Kominek ISBN: 978-0-241-54108-1 This ebook is

The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant From Two Centuries of Controversy

by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne · 16 May 2011 · 561pp · 120,899 words

akin to a philosophy—even a religion or a state of mind—than to a true-or-false scientific law like plate tectonics. According to David Spiegelhalter of Cambridge University, “It’s much more basic. . . . A huge sway of scientists says you can’t use probability to express your lack of knowledge

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the late 1980s on different aspects of the same problem. While Smith and Gelfand were developing the theory for MCMC in Nottingham, Smith’s student, David Spiegelhalter, was working in Cambridge at the Medical Research Council’s biostatistics unit. He had a rather different point of view about using Bayes for computer

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) 14. 19. Savage (1956). 20. Lindley in Erickson 49. 21. Savage in Fienberg (2006) 16–19. 22. Schrödinger 704. 23. Savage in Erickson 297. 24. David Spiegelhalter interview. 25. Robert E. Kass interview. 26. Anonymous. 27. Maurice G. Kendall 185. 28. Kruskal in Brooks, online. 29. Savage in Lindley letter to author

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. 14. W. Keith Hastings interview. 15. S. Gelfand interview. 16. Robert and Casella (2008). 17. Gelfand et al. (1990). 18. Gill 332. 19. Kuhn. 20. David Spiegelhalter interview. 21. Spiegelhalter, Abrams, and Myles. 22. Taylor and Gerrodette (1993). 23. Raftery interview. 24. Paul R. Wade interview. 25. Blackwell in DeGroot (1986a). 26

I Think You'll Find It's a Bit More Complicated Than That

by Ben Goldacre · 22 Oct 2014 · 467pp · 116,094 words

the real UK variation, from nine to thirty-one, may actually be less than you’d expect from chance. Then Barden sent his blog to David Spiegelhalter, a Professor of Statistics at Cambridge, who runs the excellent website Understanding Uncertainty. Spiegelhalter suggested that Barden could present the real cancer figures as a

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this BMJ paper, unplanned pregnancy wasn’t really associated with slower development. Pretending otherwise is just silly. Bicycle Helmets and the Law1 Ben Goldacre and David Spiegelhalter, British Medical Journal, 12 June 2013 We have both spent a large part of our working lives discussing statistics and risk with the general public

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Medicine to do our MSc in Epidemiology. Bicycle Helmets and the Law 1 This is an editorial I wrote for the British Medical Journal with David Spiegelhalter about the complex, contradictory mess of evidence on the impact of bicycle helmets. Like most places where there’s controversy and disagreement, this is a

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-fold-variation-in-uk-bowel-cancer.html Understanding Uncertainty: http://understandinguncertainty.org/ Spiegelhalter suggested that Barden: http://pb204.blogspot.com/2011/09/im-grateful-to-david-spiegelhalter-of.html Comparing Institutional Performance: http://medicine.cf.ac.uk/media/filer_public/2010/10/11/journal_club_-_spiegelhalter_stats_in_med_funnel_plots.pdf

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permission of Matt Parker 6. © Rick Strange/Alamy 7. © Ady Kerry/Alamy 8. Paul Barden, http://pb204.blogspot.co.uk/2011/09/im-grateful-to-david-spiegelhalter-of.html 9. The Life Picture Collection via Getty Images 10. © CBW/Alamy 11. © Everett Collection Historical/Alamy 12. © Pictorial Press Ltd/Alamy 13. © Bettmann

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Doctorow, Evan Harris, Muir Gray, Rob Manuel, Tobias Sargent, Anna Powell-Smith, Tjeerd van Staa, Robin Ince, Fiona Godlee, Trish Groves, Tracy Brown, Sile Lane, David Spiegelhalter, Ute-Marie Paul, Roddy Mansfield, Amanda Palmer, Rami Tzabar, George Davey-Smith, Charlotte Wattebot-O’Brien, Patrick Matthews, Amber Marks, Giles Wakely, Andy Lewis, Suzie

Choked: Life and Breath in the Age of Air Pollution

by Beth Gardiner · 18 Apr 2019 · 353pp · 106,704 words

it’s hard to take them the way they’re intended, to resist twisting the frightening figures into something that speaks to us more personally. David Spiegelhalter is a professor of the public understanding of risk at Cambridge University, so he knows that better than most. Estimating pollution deaths is tricky, he

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America.12 None are arrived at by counting individual cases; like Walton’s, they’re all derived through complex statistical modeling. Even if you tried, David Spiegelhalter says, it would be impossible to compile a body-by-body tabulation, since pollution—unlike, say, a heart attack or stroke—is not a cause

Messy: The Power of Disorder to Transform Our Lives

by Tim Harford · 3 Oct 2016 · 349pp · 95,972 words

report cards look good—namely, finding healthier patients rather than improving their medical skills. A further irony is that when two statisticians, Harvey Goldstein and David Spiegelhalter, looked at the report card data, they concluded that the main determinant of patient survival rates wasn’t the surgeon’s skill—they were all

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under Tony Blair, Gwyn Bevan, has made much the same case for ambiguous or unpredictable targets in the UK’s National Health Service. So has David Spiegelhalter, one of the UK’s leading medical statisticians. And so has Andrew Dilnot, the head of the UK Statistics Authority.24 U.S. bank regulators

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Sector,” International Journal of Public Administration 18, no. 2–3 (1995), pp. 277–310, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01900699508525011. 12. Harvey Goldstein and David Spiegelhalter, “League Tables and Their Limitations: Statistical Issues in Comparisons of Institutional Performance,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A 159, no. 3 (1996), DOI

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Weakens Control,” British Medical Journal 328, no. 7440 (March 13, 2004), p. 598, DOI: 10.1136/bmj.328.7440.598; Sir Andrew Dilnot and Sir David Spiegelhalter both advocated the use of randomly chosen measures in personal conversations with the author. 25. “The Volkswagen Scandal: A Mucky Business,” The Economist, September 26

Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach

by Stuart Russell and Peter Norvig · 14 Jul 2019 · 2,466pp · 668,761 words

directed polytree of clusters in which message passing was used to achieve consistency over variables shared between clusters. A similar approach, developed by the statisticians David Spiegelhalter and Steffen Lauritzen (Lauritzen and Spiegelhalter, 1988), is based on conversion to an undirected form of graphical model called a Markov network. This approach is

Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World

by Tom Chivers · 6 May 2024 · 283pp · 102,484 words

going to stop false test results distorting the figures.”6 What had happened was that one of them had misinterpreted an interview with Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, a cheerful statistician who spent a lot of time on national TV and radio during the pandemic patiently explaining testing accuracy or vaccine efficacy. They

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2.8 percent. We say these things as though they’re facts about the world. Bayes turned that around. For Bayes—to quote Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, the former president of the Royal Statistical Society, the former Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University, and surely the owner

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the Macarena; Andy Grieve sang a repurposed medieval students’ drinking song, “Gaudeamus Igitur,” along with another future president of the Royal Statistical Society, Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter; there was a “Bayesians in the Night” to the tune of “Strangers in the Night”; a “Like a Bayesian” (“Like a Virgin”). And so on

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. 46. Thomas Simpson, Miscellaneous Tracts on Some Curious, and Very Interesting Subjects in Mechanics, Physical-Astronomy, and Speculative Mathematics (London: John Nourse, 1757), 64. 47. David Spiegelhalter, The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data (New York: Pelican, 2019), 306. 48. Stigler, The History of Statistics, 180. 49. Spiegelhalter, The Art of Statistics

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Songbook, ed., Carlin and Bradley, Yumpu, 2006, 37, https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/read/11717939/the-bayesian-songbook-university-of-minnesota. 111. Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Twitter, 2022, https://twitter.com/d_spiegel/status/1555822628996259840. 112. Ibid. 113. Aubrey Clayton, personal conversation, 2022. 114. Maurice Kendall and Alan Stuart, The Advanced

Drugs Without the Hot Air

by David Nutt · 30 May 2012 · 605pp · 110,673 words

chapter be interpreted as saying anything different. But how harmful? As harmful as drinking five pints of beer? As harmful as getting on a motorbike? David Spiegelhalter, a professor of risk communication, has calculated that taking an ecstasy pill is 27as dangerous as riding a motorbike for about 6 miles or a

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Committee, URL-160. 27 as dangerous as riding a motorbike for about 6 miles or a push-bike for 20 miles• Cambridge Ideas – Professor Risk, David Spiegelhalter, URL-11, December 10th 2009 28 not at all clear that governments are especially influential on whether or not someone tries a drug• Drugs Policy

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. The longer the habit continues, the more the risks increase, particularly after the age of 30, as the body becomes less able to repair itself. David Spiegelhalter has calculated that 10each cigarette takes 11 minutes off your total lifespan, based on the fact that a 30 year old smoker of 30 cigarettes