Dunning–Kruger effect

Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models
by Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann
Published 17 Jun 2019

As a coach, you should keep in mind the Dunning-Kruger effect and be aware of where your team members are along the curve. When you are working with people who have less expertise, help them properly recognize their level of abilities so they don’t become overconfident, but at the same time praise their learning progression so they don’t become discouraged. It’s a balancing act. As they get closer to the middle of the curve, they will need more and more encouragement as their confidence plummets. And don’t forget to also keep the model in mind when you are learning a skill yourself. While the Dunning-Kruger effect explains what happens psychologically across the whole learning curve, it is often used to refer to just the first spike, i.e., the phenomenon where low-ability people think they are high-ability, unable to recognize their own skill level (or lack thereof) in a particular area.

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First is impostor syndrome, in which someone is plagued with the feeling that they are an impostor, fearing being exposed as a fraud, even though in reality they are not. Surveys indicate that 70 percent of people become inflicted with impostor syndrome at some point in their careers. Have you? Dunning-Kruger Effect When people fall victim to impostor syndrome, they dismiss their successes as luck or deception and focus on their failures or fear of failure. This constant focus on failure can lead to high stress and anxiety, and negative behaviors like overexertion, perfectionism, aggression, or defeatism.

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Explain that small failures are expected when you are operating out of your comfort zone. This explanation can help people recharacterize mistakes as learning opportunities. Connect them with other peers or mentors who have faced impostor syndrome. A second model to consider is the Dunning-Kruger effect, named after social psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger. This model describes the confidence people experience over time as they move from being a novice to being an expert. You usually make a lot of progress when you start out learning something, because there is so much new to learn.

The Intelligence Trap: Revolutionise Your Thinking and Make Wiser Decisions
by David Robson
Published 7 Mar 2019

Not only did the participants get better at what they did; their increased knowledge also helped them to understand their limitations.7 Since Dunning and Kruger first published their study in 1999, the finding has been replicated many times, across many different cultures.8 One survey of thirty-four countries – from Australia to Germany, and Brazil to South Korea – examined the maths skills of fifteen-year-old students; once again, the least able were often the most over-confident.9 Unsurprisingly, the press have been quick to embrace the ‘Dunning?Kruger Effect’, declaring that it is the reason why ‘losers have delusions of grandeur’ and ‘why incompetents think they are awesome’ and citing it as the cause of President Donald Trump’s more egotistical statements.10 The Dunning-Kruger Effect should have an upside, though. Although it may be alarming when someone who is highly incompetent but confident reaches a position of power, it does at least reassure us that education and training work as we would hope, improving not just our knowledge but our metacognition and self-awareness.

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Lee, C. (2016), ‘Revisiting Why Incompetents Think They Are Awesome’, Ars Technica, 4 November 2016, https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/11/revisiting-why-incompetents-think-theyre-awesome/. Flam, F. (2017), ‘Trump’s “Dangerous Disability”? The Dunning?Kruger Effect’, Bloomberg, 12 May 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-05-12/trump-s-dangerous-disability-it-s-the-dunning-kruger-effect. 11 Fisher, M. and Keil, F.C. (2016), ‘The Curse of Expertise: When More Knowledge Leads to Miscalibrated Explanatory Insight’, Cognitive Science, 40(5), 1251?69. 12 Son, L.K. and Kornell, N. (2010), ‘The Virtues of Ignorance’, Behavioural Processes, 83(2), 207?

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The legal system, for instance, is notoriously plagued by bias – and in response to this research, the American Judges Association has now issued a white paper that advocated mindfulness as one of the key strategies to improve judicial decision making, while also advising each judge to take a moment to ‘read the dials’ and interrogate their feelings in detail, just as neuroscientists and psychologists such as Feldman Barrett are suggesting.50 Ultimately, these findings could change our understanding of what it means to be an expert. In the past, psychologists had described four distinct stages in the learning curve. The complete beginner is unconsciously incompetent – she does not even know what she doesn’t know (potentially leading to the over-confidence of the Dunning?Kruger effect we saw in Chapter 3). After a short while, however, she will understand the skills she lacks, and what she must do to learn them; she is consciously incompetent. With effort, she can eventually become consciously competent – she can solve most problems, but she has to think a lot about the decisions she is making.

Know Thyself
by Stephen M Fleming
Published 27 Apr 2021

Cross (1977); Alicke et al. (1995). In a phenomenon known as the Dunning-Kruger effect, after its discoverers, overconfidence biases are most pronounced in those who perform poorly (Dunning, 2012; Kruger and Dunning, 1999). Kruger and Dunning propose that low performers suffer from a metacognitive error and not a bias in responding (Ehrlinger et al., 2008). However, it is still not clear whether the Dunning-Kruger effect is due to a difference in metacognitive sensitivity, bias, or a mixture of both. See Tal Yarkoni, “What the Dunning-Kruger Effect Is and Isn’t,” [citation needed] (blog), July 7, 2010, https://talyarkoni.org/blog/2010/07/07/what-the-dunning-kruger-effect-is-and-isnt; and Simons (2013). 10.

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See Tal Yarkoni, “What the Dunning-Kruger Effect Is and Isn’t,” [citation needed] (blog), July 7, 2010, https://talyarkoni.org/blog/2010/07/07/what-the-dunning-kruger-effect-is-and-isnt; and Simons (2013). 10. Ais et al. (2016); Song et al. (2011). 11. Mirels, Greblo, and Dean (2002); Rouault, Seow, Gillan, and Fleming (2018); Hoven et al. (2019). 12. Fleming et al. (2014); Rouault, Seow, Gillan, and Fleming (2018); Woolgar, Parr, and Cusack (2010); Roca et al. (2011); Toplak, West, and Stanovich (2011); but see Lemaitre et al. (2018). 13. Fleming et al. (2015); Siedlecka, Paulewicz, and Wierzchoń (2016); Pereira et al. (2020); Gajdos et al. (2019). 14. Logan and Crump (2010). 15. Charles, King, and Dehaene (2014); Nieuwenhuis et al. (2001); Ullsperger et al. (2010). 16.

The Knowledge Illusion
by Steven Sloman
Published 10 Feb 2017

Ray Dalio quote: Interview with Fareed Zakaria, April 27, 2015. CONCLUSION: APPRAISING IGNORANCE AND ILLUSION ignorance documentation: D. Dunning (2011). “The Dunning-Kruger Effect: On Being Ignorant of One’s Own Ignorance.” Ed. J. M. Olson and M. P. Zanna, Advances in Experimental Social Psychology 44: 247–296. “We’re not very good”: David Dunning in interview with Errol Morris, New York Times Opinionator, June 20, 2010. Dunning-Kruger effect: J. Kruger and D. Dunning (1999). “Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments.”

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If you’re relatively accident free, then you might think you’re a pretty darn good driver because you’re unaware that some people can also drive in the city, in emergency situations in all kinds of weather, in mud, on ice, and even on the beach. Relative to people with such broad experience driving, your skills may be quite limited. Expertise means that you have skills as well as knowledge about what constitutes being skilled. Ignorance means you have neither. This pairing explains what is commonly known as the Dunning-Kruger effect, that those who perform the worst overrate their own skills the most. The effect is found by giving a group of people a task to do and then asking them how well they think they’ve done on the task. Poor performers overestimate how well they’ve done; strong performers often underestimate their performance.

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See chaos theory consequences vs. values arguments, 182–87 contribution of individuals example of group thinking, 122 Copernicus, Nicolaus, 198–99 counterfactual thought, 64–65 Galileo’s experiments with dropping different weights, 65–66 imagining scenarios to figure out likely outcomes, 66 crowdsourcing expertise, 146–50 ox’s weight example, 148 Pallokerho-35 Finnish soccer club example, 148 prediction market, 149 user ratings, 148 crows ability to reason diagnostically, 62 CRT (Cognitive Reflection Test), 80–84 bat and ball problem, 81 lily pad problem, 81–82 machines and widgets problem, 82 crystallized intelligence, 202 cult communities, 260 cultural values and cognition, 160–63 reconciling conflicting beliefs, 161–62 “Science Mike” (Mike McHargue), 160–62 cumulative culture, 117–18 curse of knowledge, 128, 244 curving bullets example of physics, 69–70 Dalio, Ray, 253 Damasio, Antonio, 103 decentralized collaborative activity, 149–50 Bitcoin, 150 block chain technology, 150 Ethereum, 150 decision-making, 103–05, 240, 241, 248–49, 250–53 deficit model of science attitudes, 157–60 Dehghani, Morteza, 185–86 Descartes, René, 87 de Soto, Hernando, 244–45 DeVito, Danny, 45–46 Dewey, John, 216 diagnostic reasoning, 58–62 crow example, 62 lethargy example, 59–61 diSessa, Andrea, 71 disgust, feelings of, 104–05 division of cognitive labor, 14, 109–11, 120–21, 128–29 area of expertise example, 120 car analogy example, 207–08 in the field of science, 222–23 household finances, 247 wine expert example, 120 dogs Cassie example, 49–50 Pavlovian conditioning, 50–51 doorway example of optic flow, 99–100 driving ability example of ignorance, 257–58 Dunbar, Robin, 113 Dunning, David, 257–58 Dunning-Kruger effect, 258 Eastwood, Clint, 172 economics of science, 227–28 education application of classroom learning, 216–17 becoming a car mechanic example, 219–20 expressing desire to learn that which is unknown, 221 financial issues, 240–41 history of Spain example, 220 Ignorance course, 221 illusion of comprehension, 217–18 just-in-time, 251–52 learning to accept what you don’t know, 220–21 mathematical abilities of Brazilian children, 215–16 peer, 230–31 purpose of, 219–21 teaching science, 222, 225–32 Einstein, Albert, 199 embodied intelligence, 91–93 embodiment, 102 emotional responses that influence decision-making, 103–05, 240 engagement as a human concept, 117 environment, knowledge of your personal, 94–96 Ethereum, 150 expertise and crowdsourcing, 146–50 in scientific matters, 226–27 to understand community issues, 188–89 explanation foes and fiends, 237–39 advertising, 239–40, 241–42 Band-Aids example, 237–38 skin care example, 239–40 vesting service letter example, 243–44 explorers’ self-confidence, 263 eyesight.

The Internet Is a Playground
by David Thorne
Published 24 Mar 2010

Remember to cut inside of the line to ensure the right size. Step 6 Insert the packet into the hole you have just cut until the bevel is flush with the picture. Step 7 And there you are. Your homemade fine art scanning device is complete. Scott Dunning-Kruger effect poster boy When not appearing as poster boy for the Dunning-Kruger effect, Scott divides his time between eating and “writing” on his beige blog, attempting to prove to the world that everything I write is fake. From: Scott Redmond Date: Friday 17 September 2010 2:11 p.m. To: David Thorne Subject: Fake Davey Davey Davey.

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Kilda Swamp Shannon asks a favor after denying me petty cash Hello, my name is Lucius, and I am a straight man Love letters from Dick, Rove’s biggest fan Life-size Lucius™ free cutout doll Guns, baseball caps, and pickup trucks: 3 weeks in the USA Belly messages pretending to be a girl on the Internet Mr. Carganovsky extreme stuntman to the max Mr. Carganovsky’s lawyer writes a letter That Tuesday and why I was not at work Hello, my name is Jason, and I own a MacBook Pro Write me a speech and don’t be a dickhead about it Dear Jason a guide to fine art scanning Scott Dunning-Kruger effect poster boy Hello, my name is John, and I ride a bicycle Hello, my name is Josh, and I live in New Zealand Bees are attracted to yellow—it is a scientific fact Barnesyfan67 online dating profile Lesley the adventurous, outdoors type JEREMY P. TARCHER/PENGUIN Published by the Penguin Group Penguin Group (USA) Inc., 375 Hudson Street, New York, New York 10014, USA Penguin Group (Canada), 90 Eglinton Avenue East, Suite 700, Toronto, Ontario M4P 2Y3, Canada (a division of Pearson Penguin Canada Inc.)

Evil by Design: Interaction Design to Lead Us Into Temptation
by Chris Nodder
Published 4 Jun 2013

This behavior—unskilled individuals suffering from illusive superiority, whereas skilled individuals suffer from illusive inferiority—is now known as the Dunning-Kruger effect. Dunning and Kruger’s studies used tests of logical reasoning, grammar, and humor, but the same effect holds across other domains, at least for a Western audience. There are several online activities that are open to anyone to participate in, but which require some serious skills to actually succeed at. One of the most obvious areas is online financial trading. Although it’s probably true that you could observe the Dunning-Kruger effect in action with simple stock trading sites, the most fun occurs on sites that broker trades in the derivatives market: options and futures.

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By warping or removing our capacity to use these reference points of what’s rationally correct, companies can set new anchor points for us that make us think it’s OK to do things we’d otherwise consider spiteful or selfish. Another way that people are separated from reality is in terms of the level of mastery they feel. Counterintuitively, as the Dunning-Kruger effect demonstrates, it takes at least a degree of skill to know that you aren’t very skillful. Without understanding their true level of skill, people can easily get drawn in to working with systems they do not truly understand. It’s easy for companies to convince us that we can win by downplaying luck and emphasizing the skill and mastery we already think we have, even when we don’t.

Going Dark: The Secret Social Lives of Extremists
by Julia Ebner
Published 20 Feb 2020

The same study found that individuals who think that bin Laden was already dead when US special forces raided his Abbottabad compound in 2011 are also more likely to believe that he is still alive.26 These individuals possess what psychologists call a ‘conspiracy mentality’: if you believe in one conspiracy theory, you are also more likely to believe in other conspiracy theories, even if they contradict one another.27 People with fewer years of education are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories. If you know very little about a subject, you are more likely to have high confidence in your knowledge and judgement. This is known as the Dunning–Kruger Effect, or ‘Mount Stupid’.28 (Il)logical deductions can of course go on and on and on, rendering conspiracy theories bottomless: there are even conspiracy theories about conspiracy theories. To the Swiss-German historian Daniele Ganser the term ‘conspiracy theorist’ is a ‘political battle cry’ invented by the CIA – an unlikely scenario considering that Austrian-born philosopher Karl Popper used the term in 1940, seven years before the CIA was created.29 On 8chan, users can post questions to Q, as if approaching an oracle:30 What is the big secret in Antarctica?

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Sutton, ‘Dead and alive: Belief in contradictory conspiracy theories’, Social Psychology and Personality Science 3, 2012, pp. 767–73. 27S. Moscovici, ‘The conspiracy mentality’, in C. F. Graumann and S. Moscovici (eds), Changing Conceptions of Conspiracy (New York: Springer, 1987), pp. 151–69. 28David Dunning, ‘Chapter Five: The Dunning–Kruger Effect: On Being Ignorant of One’s Own Ignorance’, Advances in Experimental Social Psychology 44, 2011, pp. 247–96. Available at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780123855220000056. 29See https://twitter.com/danieleganser/status/824953776280854528?lang=en. 30See https://8ch.net//qresearch//res/4279775.html#4280231. 31See https://www.qanon.pub. 32Kyle Feldscher, ‘QAnon-believing “conspiracy analyst” meets Trump in the White House’, CNN, 25 August 2018.

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The Art of Scalability: Scalable Web Architecture, Processes, and Organizations for the Modern Enterprise
by Martin L. Abbott and Michael T. Fisher
Published 1 Dec 2009

By being a better leader, you will get more out of your organizations and your organizations will make decisions consistent with your vision and mission. The result is greater scalability, more benefit with less work (or rework), and happier shareholders. Taking Stock of Who You Are Most people are not as good a leader as they think. We make this assertion from our personal experience, and while relying on the Dunning-Kruger effect. Through their studies, David Dunning and Justin Kruger witnessed that we often overestimate our abilities and that the overestimation is most severe where we lack experience or have 67 68 C HAPTER 4 L EADERSHIP 101 a high degree of ignorance.1 With very little formal leadership training available in our universities or workplaces, we believe that leadership ignorance abounds and that as a result, many people overestimate their leadership skills.

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In their book Resonant Leadership, Richard Boyatzis and Annie McKee discuss the three components necessary for change in individuals as mindfulness, hope, and compassion.2 Mindfulness here is the knowledge of one’s self, including feelings and capabilities, whereas hope and compassion help to generate the vision and drivers for change. Unfortunately, as the Dunning-Kruger effect would argue, you probably aren’t the best person to evaluate where you are today. All of us have a tendency to inflate certain self-perceived strengths and potentially even misdiagnose weaknesses. Elite military units strip a potential leader down to absolutely nothing and force him to know his limits.

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Designing to be disabled architectural principles, 201 markdown functionality, 282–283 Designing to be monitored, 470–471 Destructive interference communication breakdown, 105–106 in dysfunctional organizations, 212 Detection, incident management, 136–138 Diagnosis, incident management, 138 Dining philosophers problem, 394 Dirty cache data, 381 Disaster recovery, data center planning, 496–497 Distributed object caches, AKF Scale Cube for databases, 360 Documentation, crisis management activities, 154 Dot com bubble, 427 Downtime costs, of scalability failure, 114–117 DRIER (Detect, Report, Investigate, Escalate, Resolve) process, incident management, 138–139, 146–147 Dunning, David, 67 Dunning-Kruger effect, 67–68 Dysfunctional organizations, 211–213 E EBay, crisis management case studies, 152, 505–506 Ecommerce AKF Scale Cube for applications, 350–351 AKF Scale Cube for databases, 370–372 Educating executives, 111–112 Educational mismatch, communication breakdown, 106 I NDEX Efficiency, influences of organizational design, 44 Ego, role in leadership, 71 Elevation, data centers, 486 Employee reviews, leadership, 69 Employees.

Heart of the Machine: Our Future in a World of Artificial Emotional Intelligence
by Richard Yonck
Published 7 Mar 2017

Enard W., Przeworski M., Fisher S.E., Lai C.S., Wiebe V., Kitano T., Monaco A.P., Pääbo S. “Molecular evolution of FOXP2, a gene involved in speech and language.” Nature 418, 869–872 (August 22, 2002). 12. Today we refer to such overconfidence as the Dunning-Kruger effect, a form of cognitive bias. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect. 13. Christiansen, M.H., Kirby, S. “Language evolution: consensus and controversies.” TRENDS in Cognitive Sciences, Vol.7 No.7. July 2003. 14. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. “The neural and cognitive correlates of aimed throwing in chimpanzees: a magnetic resonance image and behavioural study on a unique form of social tool use,” January 12, 2012, vol. 367 no. 1585 37–47. 15.

The Glass Half-Empty: Debunking the Myth of Progress in the Twenty-First Century
by Rodrigo Aguilera
Published 10 Mar 2020

Nearly everyone has encountered at least one colleague who merely by the fact that he (yes, usually a he) behaves like a bigger expert than he is tends to climb the corporate ladder faster. Such behavior has been particularly noted among less competent individuals who tend to be more self-deluded about their own abilities. This phenomenon, known as the Dunning-Kruger Effect,28 basically has it that illusory superiority is strongest among those of lowest competence in whatever activity is being assessed. In contrast, people of moderate competence are more aware of their limitations, while those of high competence both recognize their abilities but also recognize the inherent complexity of the issues which results in them knowing that they don’t know everything.

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In short, the stupider someone is the more convinced they are that they’re right about everything, an embarrassing spectacle that almost everyone who has been on social media over the past few years has surely encountered on an alarmingly regular basis. And though debating Twitter and Facebook trolls might be frustrating and futile, what’s more worrying is when the Dunning-Kruger Effect is found in environments that actually matter. Like the workplace or in politics, where incompetent but supremely self-assured individuals are perceived to be more authoritative and tend to nab the promotions and get voted into office. The current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue (and at time of writing, 10 Downing Street) being by far the best examples.

Doing Data Science: Straight Talk From the Frontline
by Cathy O'Neil and Rachel Schutt
Published 8 Oct 2013

But what we probably should focus on, or at least emphasize more strongly, is how students behave when they don’t know the answer. We need to have qualities that help us find the answer. Speaking of this issue, have you ever wondered why people don’t say “I don’t know” when they don’t know something? This is partly explained through an unconscious bias called the Dunning-Kruger effect. Basically, people who are bad at something have no idea that they are bad at it and overestimate their confidence. People who are super good at something underestimate their mastery of it. Actual competence may weaken self-confidence. Keep this in mind and try not to over- or underestimate your abilities—give yourself reality checks by making sure you can code what you speak and by chatting with other data scientists about approaches.

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directed edges, Kyle Teague and GetGlue discrete derivative operators, A Baby Model distance metrics (k-NN), Similarity or distance metrics–Similarity or distance metrics sensitivity of, Some Problems with Nearest Neighbors distant reading, Franco Moretti distribution, Populations and Samples conditional, Probability distributions Gaussian, Probability distributions joint, Probability distributions named, Probability distributions normal, Probability distributions distributive crowdsourcing, Background: Crowdsourcing domain expertise vs. machine learning algorithms, Thought Experiment: What Are the Ethical Implications of a Robo-Grader? Dorsey, Jack, About Square Driscoll, Mike, The Current Landscape (with a Little History) Duhigg, Charles, A Bit of History on Data Journalism Dunning-Kruger effect, Cultivating Soft Skills dyads, Terminology from Social Networks, A First Example of Random Graphs: The Erdos-Renyi Model E eBay, Recommendation Engines: Building a User-Facing Data Product at Scale, The Dimensionality Problem edges, Kyle Teague and GetGlue, Terminology from Social Networks ego networks, Terminology from Social Networks Egyptian politics thought experiment, Thought Experiment eigenvalue centrality, Representations of Networks and Eigenvalue Centrality social networks and, Representations of Networks and Eigenvalue Centrality electronic health records (EHR), Research Experiment (Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership), Research Experiment (Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership) embedded methods, Example: User Retention engaged users, Challenges in features and learning entropy, Selection criterion conditional, Entropy feature selection and, Entropy specific conditional, Entropy epidemiology, Epidemiology–Closing Thought Experiment academic statistics and, Modern Academic Statistics confounders in, Stratification Does Not Solve the Confounder Problem–What Do People Do About Confounding Things in Practice?

Attack of the 50 Foot Blockchain: Bitcoin, Blockchain, Ethereum & Smart Contracts
by David Gerard
Published 23 Jul 2017

Attorney’s Office, Southern District of New York (press release), 6 November 2014. [77] Nate Raymond. “Texan gets one-and-a-half years in prison for running bitcoin Ponzi scheme”. Reuters, 21 July 2016. [78] Justin O’Connell. “Lawyer Reveals Details About the Man Behind Bitcoin’s $4.5 Million Ponzi Scheme”. Motherboard, 18 December 2015. [79] Wikipedia: Dunning-Kruger effect. From which another name for bitcoins, “Dunning-Krugerrands.” [80] “Risk of Bitcoin Hacks and Losses Is Very Real”. Reuters, 29 August 2016. [81] Kyt Dotson. “Third Largest Bitcoin Exchange Bitomat Lost Their Wallet, Over 17,000 Bitcoins Missing”. SiliconAngle, 1 August 2011. [82] Coinabul. “10 Questions with Zhou Tong”.

The Joys of Compounding: The Passionate Pursuit of Lifelong Learning, Revised and Updated
by Gautam Baid
Published 1 Jun 2020

The wiser we become, the more we realize how little we know. A lesser-known (and one of my all-time favorite) equation from Albert Einstein rings true: “Ego = 1 / Knowledge. More the knowledge lesser the ego, lesser the knowledge more the ego.” The deeper one dives into any field, the more humble one generally becomes (also known as the Dunning-Kruger effect). By demonstrating intellectual humility and acknowledging what we don’t know, we place ourselves into a beneficial position to learn more—thus, the dawning of wisdom. True expert knowledge in life and investing does not exist, only varying degrees of ignorance. This is not a problem to solve; it is simply how the world works.

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Martin on, 244; Munger on, 244; overdiversification, 244; risk and, 117–118; sufficient, 246 diversity, Internet and, 291 dividend pay-outs, Fisher on, 217 dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP), 367 Dobelli, Rolf, 75 dog stock, 337 Dollar, US, total real returns on, 274 do-nothing syndrome, 135 dopamine, 270, 348 Doren, Charles Van, 16–17 Dorsey, Pat, on competitive advantage, 221 do-something syndrome, 137 doubt, 53–54 Dow Jones, 54, 88–89, 105 Dow Jones Industrial Average, 220–221, 273 downside volatility, 276 DRIP. See dividend reinvestment plan Druckenmiller, Stanley, 233 Drucker, Peter, 226; on efficiency, 247 dry powder, 299 due diligence, Buffett on, 174 Duhigg, Charles, 359; on habits, 360 Duke, Annie, 341 Dunning-Kruger effect, 51 DuPont analysis, 221 durability, 163–164 Durant, Ariel, 15 Durant, Will, 15, 42 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), 162, 191 earnings per share (EPS), 98, 162 Easterlin, Richard, 84 EBITDA. See earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization economies of scale, 99 Edge, The, 200 Edison, Thomas, 31, 304 education, 47, 82 Education of a Value Investor, The (Spier), 46 ego, 338–340; Einstein on, 51–52; Fisher on, 339 egotism, on Wall Street, 55 Eicher Motors, 309, 326, 346 Einhorn, David, 244 Einstein, Albert, 35, 36, 70, 155; on compound interest, 2, 349; on curiosity, 325; on ego, 51–52; on knowledge, 51–52; on simplicity, 73 Eisner, Michael, 4–5 elementary reading, 16 Ellis, Albert, 35 Ellis, Charles D., 175 emergency funds, 254–255 emerging markets, Munger on, 301–302 emerging moats, 213 Emerson, Harrington, 19 Emerson, Ralph Waldo, 52, 230 emotional arousal, 137, 275 emotional intelligence, 59, 157–158 empathy, in investment, 184–186 employee cost, 130 Endersen, Laurence, 50, 146 End of Accounting, The (Lev & Gu), 312 enterprise value (EV), 191 envy, 135, 339–340; Buffett on, 338 EPS.

The Behavioral Investor
by Daniel Crosby
Published 15 Feb 2018

Jason Zweig shares that participants in one ambiguous study reported 68% certainty in their ability to determine whether a drawing had been created by an Asian or European child. Likewise, college students reported 66% certainty that they could name which US states had the highest graduation rates. In both cases, the actual results were at or below chance levels. A related concept, perhaps my favorite in all of psychology, is what is known as the Dunning-Kruger effect. To put their findings indelicately, David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University found that dumb people are too dumb to know how dumb they are.34 Their inquiry into the subject was inspired by the case of McArthur Wheeler, a bank robber who attempted to disguise his identity by covering his face in lemon juice.

Transport for Humans: Are We Nearly There Yet?
by Pete Dyson and Rory Sutherland
Published 15 Jan 2021

Wherever you are in the world, you will underestimate your chance of getting divorced, being in a car accident or suffering from cancer while overestimating your chance of living a long life or having talented children.3 We are also over-optimistic when it comes to our own abilities, the quality of our plans and our tools for success. Psychologists call this the Dunning–Kruger effect. This is universal and has little to do with intelligence or experience. Consequently, seasoned government officials and politicians are as vulnerable to this effect as anyone else is. One US study tested 600 officials to compare what they thought they knew about climate change and their actual knowledge of it as evaluated in a test.4 Concerningly, the most experienced officials were also the most overconfident, leading them to oppose highly effective risk-reduction policies such as improving agricultural practices to reduce methane levels or protecting coastal settlements from rising sea levels.

The Willpower Instinct: How Self-Control Works, Why It Matters, and What You Can Doto Get More of It
by Kelly McGonigal
Published 1 Dec 2011

Willpower Diet Willpower Workout ZZZZZZZZZZ willpower instinct pause-and-plan response Wolfgang Koehler Primate Research Center women, and chocolate Woods, Tiger would-be entrepreneur writer challenges voice of self-criticism Yale University School of Medicine yoga 1 This bias is not unique to willpower—for example, people who think they are the best at multitasking are actually the most distractible. Known as the Dunning-Kruger effect, this phenomenon was first reported by two Cornell University psychologists who found that people overestimate their abilities in all sorts of areas, including sense of humor, grammar, and reasoning skills. The effect is most pronounced among people who have the least skill; for example, those with a test score in the 12th percentile would, on average, estimate themselves to be in the 62nd percentile.

Disrupted: My Misadventure in the Start-Up Bubble
by Dan Lyons
Published 4 Apr 2016

is an actual question that HubSpot’s twenty-something managers ask job candidates during interviews, according to reviews posted on Glassdoor, a website for job seekers. Also: “What does your desk look like? What would you put on it?” The thing about bozos is that bozos don’t know that they’re bozos. Bozos think they’re the shit, which makes them really annoying but also incredibly entertaining, depending on your point of view. Shrinks call this the Dunning-Kruger effect, named after two researchers from Cornell University whose studies found that incompetent people fail to recognize their own lack of skill, grossly overestimate their abilities, and are unable to recognize talent in other people who actually are competent. Cranium is a classic example. He was one of the first five employees at HubSpot, and in his mind, HubSpot is a huge, important company.

Beginners: The Joy and Transformative Power of Lifelong Learning
by Tom Vanderbilt
Published 5 Jan 2021

In the clumsily self-conscious early stages of skill learning, it can be hard to remember to take note of your surroundings. But progress will come. Just enjoy the moment; take it all in. THE BEGINNERS’ ADVANTAGE Even as your skills and knowledge progress, there is a potential value to holding on to that beginner’s mind. In what’s come to be known as the Dunning-Kruger effect, the psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger famously showed that on various cognitive tests the people who did the worst were also the ones who most “grossly overestimated” their actual performance. They were “unskilled and unaware of it.” This can certainly be a stumbling block for beginners.

How to Talk to a Science Denier: Conversations With Flat Earthers, Climate Deniers, and Others Who Defy Reason
by Lee McIntyre
Published 14 Sep 2021

I talked to Cornelia Betsch on the phone, and she was interested in the possibility of working with me to try to set up a future experiment. Notes 1. James H. Kuklinski et al., “Misinformation and the Currency of Democratic Citizenship,” Journal of Politics 62, no. 3 (August 2000), https://www.uvm.edu/~dguber/POLS234/articles/kuklinski.pdf. 2. This is called the Dunning-Kruger effect. I discuss it in Post-Truth, 51–58. 3. A telephone survey is surely not as personal as a face-to-face encounter, but it is more personal than interacting with subjects only online. Kuklinski’s work involved a half-hour phone conversation with each of his participants. That is a long time to be on the phone with someone. 4.

The Personal MBA: A World-Class Business Education in a Single Volume
by Josh Kaufman
Published 2 Feb 2011

The more a person actually knows, the better their ability to self-assess their capabilities, and the more likely they are to doubt their capabilities until they have enough experience to know they’ve mastered the subject. According to David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University, Charles Darwin’s famous quip “Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge” is literally true. They explain the “Dunning-Kruger effect” as follows:1. Incompetent individuals tend to overestimate their own level of skill. 2. Incompetent individuals fail to recognize genuine skill in others. 3. Incompetent individuals fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy. 4. If they can be trained to substantially improve their own skill level, these individuals can recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill.

Principles: Life and Work
by Ray Dalio
Published 18 Sep 2017

; “Are we going to try to convince each other that we are right or are we going to open-mindedly hear each other’s perspectives to try to figure out what’s true and what to do about it?”; or “Are you arguing with me or seeking to understand my perspective?” 27 Psychologist and science journalist Daniel Goleman originally coined this term in Emotional Intelligence. 28 Some of this may be a result of what is called the Dunning-Kruger effect, a cognitive bias in which low-ability individuals believe that they are in fact superior. 4 Understand That People Are Wired Very Differently Because of the different ways that our brains are wired, we all experience reality in different ways and any single way is essentially distorted.

Engineering Security
by Peter Gutmann

There’s a well-documented phenomenon in psychology in which people have an unrealistically positive opinion of themselves, often totally unsupported by any actual evidence. This phenomenon is sometimes known as the Lake Wobegon effect after US humorist Garrison Keillor’s fictional community of the same name, in which “the women are strong, the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average”, or more formally the Dunning-Kruger effect in which unskilled people, unable to recognise their own lack of skill in an area and therefore to determine whether they’ve performed well or not, make poor decisions based on an overestimation of their own abilities [355], and is something that’s uniformly present across people from all age groups, races, education levels, and socioeconomic statuses [356].