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Flash Crash: A Trading Savant, a Global Manhunt, and the Most Mysterious Market Crash in History

by Liam Vaughan  · 11 May 2020  · 268pp  · 81,811 words

LLC. Cover image by Jun / iStock / Getty Images Cover design by Gray318 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Vaughan, Liam, 1979– author. Title: Flash crash : a trading savant, a global manhunt, and the most mysterious market crash in history / Liam Vaughan. Description: First edition. | New York : Doubleday, [2020] Identifiers: LCCN

of controversial methods and who, in the American government’s reckoning, had helped precipitate the most dramatic market collapse in recent history, the so-called “Flash Crash” of 2010. The Americans had been monitoring Sarao from afar for months, reading his emails, tracing his assets, interviewing his associates, and observing his

the United Kingdom today on U.S. wire fraud and commodities fraud and manipulation charges in connection with his alleged role in the May 2010 ‘Flash Crash,’ ” the DOJ statement said. Sarao “used an automated trading program to manipulate the market,” it went on, earning “significant profits” and contributing to a “

drop in the U.S. stock market.” For a multitude of reporters and finance professionals, the announcement was shocking and bizarre. For one thing, the Flash Crash—that apocalyptic half-hour spell when markets around the world collapsed before bouncing back again, and stocks temporarily changed hands at 0.0001 cents—had

hole, the government was under pressure to reassure the public that it had matters under control. Throughout the next day and into the weekend, the Flash Crash dominated the press, and the consensus was that the rise in algorithmic trading was to blame. “High-Speed Trading Glitch Costs Investors Billions,” wrote the

CFTC portion was given to Cyrus Amir-Mokri, an urbane former partner at the elite law firm Skadden, Arps. The goal was to get the Flash Crash investigation wrapped up as quickly as possible while demonstrating that they’d taken the matter seriously. Amir-Mokri formed a team of around twenty attorneys

the afternoon of the crash, the majority of HFT firms had either shut down or joined the selling frenzy, pushing prices down further. “During the Flash Crash, the trading behavior of HFTs appears to have exacerbated the downward move in prices,” Kirilenko and his colleagues wrote. “We believe that technological innovation is

market makers in a given stock to provide quotes at all times, regardless of conditions. The stipulation was supposed to help prevent events like the Flash Crash by guaranteeing there was always somebody willing to trade, but, as ever on Wall Street, some dealers had found a way around it by leaving

s 60 Minutes aired a segment on the “math wizards” who secretly controlled the market, and scarcely a day passed without reports of another “mini flash crash” involving unexplained blips in stocks like Cisco Systems and the Washington Post Company. On December 8, 2010, two months after the CFTC and SEC published

their report, the Senate’s Banking Committee held a hearing titled “Stock Market Flash Crash: Causes and Solutions.” Kicking off the proceedings, the Democrat Carl Levin said: “Today U.S. capital markets, which traditionally have been the envy of

latest, fastest technology. Our regulators are riding the equivalent of mopeds going 20 miles per hour chasing traders whose cars are going 100.” As the Flash Crash had demonstrated, regulators weren’t just unable to monitor in real time what was going on in their markets. Even seven months on, the SEC

pose it.” “It’s not a naïve question at all,” Schapiro replied. “It’s sort of the fundamental question we’re all grappling with.” The Flash Crash had laid bare the regulators’ limitations, but more than that, it had awoken the wider population to the fact that the entire structure of the

a cult following on Twitter by posting charts and videos that he said showed spoofing and other forms of cheating. A few weeks after the Flash Crash, Hunsader and his colleagues were scouring data when they noticed that some exchanges were intermittently being bombarded with huge volumes of orders in short bursts

s mind the reason was clear: it was a whitewash. He persuaded Waddell & Reed to send him its trading records and published his own alternative Flash Crash report that vindicated the Kansas City fund manager and said it had been made a scapegoat for the HFT industry. “Why would SEC regulators deny

just stopped meeting up,” recalls one elderly committee member. On the fourth floor of the CFTC, one unlikely glimmer of resistance still flickered. After the Flash Crash report, Kirilenko had been promoted to chief economist, and, with little budget at his disposal, he focused on attracting students from the best universities to

discussing some new Viking metal band.” When Mr. X called and told Stevenson that he’d uncovered evidence of manipulation on the day of the Flash Crash, the lawyer was skeptical. For one thing, he estimates he takes on about one case for every fifty inquiries he receives. “You don’t

completed or partially filled trade. Kirilenko and his colleagues had relied on TCR to identify Waddell & Reed’s errant algo in the days after the Flash Crash, and had used it as the foundation of their joint report with the SEC. But modern trading was as much about canceled orders as consummated

all conversations around Sarao had an unspoken subtext: How would it look if the CFTC turned around and suggested that spoofing had helped cause the Flash Crash, when three years earlier it published a report that didn’t even mention it as a factor? By fall 2013, the team had verified

Nav. CHAPTER 20 ◼ MINDGAMES The clock was ticking for Jessica Harris and her colleagues at the CFTC. More than four years had passed since the Flash Crash, and the agency was subject to a five-year statute of limitations, meaning if they were going to charge Sarao for his actions that day

to execute and there is no clear business motivation for wanting those orders to execute,” he concluded in a report. On the subject of the Flash Crash, he was more circumspect. Resisting pressure from the CFTC to tie the day’s events to Sarao, Hendershott would only note, somewhat tortuously, that “

the layering algorithm contributed to the overall Order Book imbalances and market conditions that the regulators say led to the liquidity deterioration prior to the Flash Crash.” Having a renowned finance professor testify that Sarao’s trading was consistent with spoofing was helpful, but there were still some big holes in the

how useful the criminal authorities’ powers could be. At this point, Commodity Exchange Act violations were rarely charged as felonies, but the reverberations of the Flash Crash were felt around the world. “I wanted the deterrent effect of putting an actual human being in jail,” says Goelman. “It’s much more effective

Meanwhile, Goelman, the new head of enforcement, was navigating more political waters. Throughout the investigation, the CFTC had been aware that linking Sarao to the Flash Crash might leave the agency open to criticism, and with Nav’s arrest looming, such considerations came to the fore. “You’re faced with a choice

-up to Sarao’s arrest, there had been extensive discussions at both the CFTC and the DOJ about how much emphasis to place on the Flash Crash. Some argued that pinning the events of May 6, 2010, on Sarao was unnecessary and risked weakening the whole case, particularly since the “disruptive

office sent out a release with the headline “Futures Trader Charged with Illegally Manipulating Stock Market, Contributing to the May 2010 Market ‘Flash Crash.’ ” Sarao was duly dubbed the “Flash Crash Trader,” and much of the subsequent debate about his innocence or guilt disregarded the hundreds of other days he was trading. The prosecutors

, busy preparing for trial, discounted the media’s fixation with the Flash Crash as an unfortunate sideshow, but the truth was, for Nav, it was profoundly important. Historically, spoofers and manipulators were handled civilly, with fines or

prove. It looks like grandstanding.” His comments reflect a schism that opened up in the days after the arrest between the authors of the original Flash Crash report and those involved in Nav’s case. Andrei Kirilenko, one of the leaders of the 2010 probe, rejected the notion that Sarao had any

bearing on the Flash Crash at all. Speaking to the Wall Street Journal, the economist described the impact of Sarao’s layering orders as “statistically insignificant” and pointed out that

said, it was “highly unlikely that, as alleged by the United States Government, Navinder Sarao’s spoofing orders, even if illegal, could have caused the Flash Crash or that the crash was a foreseeable consequence of his spoofing activity.” Four years after the spoofing rules came into force, questions were once again

had an interest in the integrity of the marketplace. Among the independent trading community, Nav’s reputation didn’t turn on whether he caused the Flash Crash or the ethical merits of spoofing. To the dwindling army of day traders, Nav was nothing short of a god, the lone trader who took

junior, Joel Smith, took on Sarao’s case, they planned to attack the DOJ’s assertion that the trader had anything to do with the Flash Crash, arguing in a pretrial hearing that the association was unsubstantiated and would make it impossible to get a fair trial. Since then, the Americans had

March 23, 2016, the judge approved Sarao’s extradition. “I note this case has attracted much publicity under the banner headlines of involvement in the Flash Crash,” he wrote, but “complaint of involvement in this emotively named event is but a small part of the conduct alleged here.” On the subject of

may have treated markets like a computer game, she said, but “that does not impact the seriousness of what happened” on the day of the Flash Crash. “Your actions contributed to abusing the integrity of the market, something that’s essential to maintaining a healthy economy.” Kendall was adamant that Sarao face

own reporting, I relied extensively on the work of academics, authors, lawyers, finance professionals, and fellow journalists, particularly in the sections on HFT and the Flash Crash. They are cited in the notes. Before I wrote a word I read Michael Lewis’s Flash Boys, Scott Patterson’s Dark Pools and The

Michael Maiello, Daily Beast, April 22, 2015. “I don’t know about computers”: Marcus Leroux and Harry Wilson, “British Trader Accused of Sparking Wall St ‘Flash Crash’ from West London Semi,” The Times (London), April 22, 2015. CHAPTER 1: WORK WELL UNDER PRESSURE “Wanted. Trainee Futures Traders”: Classified ad in the Evening

Wall Street? More Like Hound of Hounslow,” Daily Mail, April 23, 2015. “prankster” who “got away with things”: Camilla Turner, James Titcomb, and Gordon Rayner, “Flash Crash Trader a ‘Prankster Who Always Got Away with It,’ Friends Say,” Daily Telegraph, April 22, 2015. burgeoning number of arcades: The terms “trading arcade” and

million. CHAPTER 5: RISE OF THE ROBOTS The term is somewhat vague and ill-defined: A. Kirilenko, A. Kyle, M. Samadi, and T. Tuzun, “The Flash Crash: The Impact of High Frequency Trading on an Electronic Market,” Working Paper, October 1, 2010. The first HFT firms: Getco—the Global Electronic Trading Company

Plunge,” by Herbert Lash and Jonathan Spicer. Waddell & Reed’s flagship investment vehicle was: E. S. Browning and Jenny Strasburg, “The Mutual Fund in the ‘Flash Crash,” Wall Street Journal, October 6, 2010. Normally, the firm’s head trader: Jenny Strasburg and Jeanette Neumann, “As Markets Sank, Waddell Traders Were at an

“Preliminary Findings,” CFTC and SEC, May 18, 2010, www.sec.gov. “no evidence to suggest”: Carey Gillam, “Waddell & Reed Says Not Cause of May 6 Flash Crash,” Reuters, May 17, 2010. “Who puts in a $4.1bn order without a limit price?”: Courtney Comstock, “Read the Email an HFT Chairman Is Forwarding

Around About Firm That Caused Flash Crash,” Business Insider, October 4, 2010. CHAPTER 12: MILKING MARKETS Nav signed up for a plan: The dividend scheme was later closed down by HMRC,

Post Company: The Washington Post Company changed its name to the Graham Holdings Company in 2013 after it was acquired by Jeff Bezos. “Stock Market Flash Crash: Causes and Solutions”: A video of the hearing is available on https://c-span.org. To remedy the issue: As of November 2019, the

. The SEC undertook its own review: The SEC had actually already begun an overarching review of the equity market structure in January 2010, before the Flash Crash. funneled donations to their political allies: “Emanuel’s Rare Political Reach Fuels Fundraising Machine,” Chicago Tribune, February 2, 2015. Within the CFTC itself: Bart

“splash crash” was coined by John Bates, a senior director at Progress Software and an adviser to the CFTC, to describe a situation whereby a Flash Crash–type event spills over into markets and asset classes around the world with potentially catastrophic effects. The CME and other exchanges: The CME increased the

offering to pay them on the full amount. CHAPTER 21: WHERE’S THE MONEY, NAV? “Nav was always going to be the kind of person”: “Flash Crash Trader ‘Potentially Legendary’: Rossi,” Bloomberg, April 24, 2015. Wandsworth houses roughly 1,700 inmates: Wandsworth Prison information, www.justice.gov.uk. Nav’s funds

Molehill,” Streetwise Professor, April 24, 2015, www.streetwiseprofessor.com. After analyzing e-mini and SPY trading data: Eric Aldrich, Joseph Grundfest, and Gregory Laughlin, “The Flash Crash: A New Deconstruction,” January 25, 2016. Aldrich is at the Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz; Grundfest is at the School of Law

. the complaint alleged that Garcia: IXE and Garcia declined to comment on a detailed list of facts sent to them in advance of publication of Flash Crash, including on the allegations made by the Mongolian Central Bank. Martha Forcucci, a spokesperson for the company, described the facts as “tendentious.” Greenberg and

. He then pleaded guilty to two of the twenty-two counts: “Futures Trader Pleads Guilty to Illegally Manipulating the Futures Market in Connection with 2010 ‘Flash Crash,’ ” November 9, 2016, www.justice.gov. For Nav, this exercise resulted in: Court transcripts of Sarao plea hearing, U.S. District Court for the

The Age of AI: And Our Human Future

by Henry A Kissinger, Eric Schmidt and Daniel Huttenlocher  · 2 Nov 2021  · 194pp  · 57,434 words

error. In the financial world, such errors devastate portfolios but do not take lives. In the strategic domain, however, an algorithmic failure analogous to a “flash crash” could be catastrophic. If strategic defense in the digital realm requires tactical offense, if one side errs in its calculations or its actions, an escalatory

Learn Algorithmic Trading

by Sebastien Donadio  · 7 Nov 2019

send any more order flow to the live markets. This risk violation would only be triggered during periods of extremely unexpected events, such as a flash crash market condition. This severity of risk violation basically means that the algorithmic trading strategy is not designed to deal with such an event automatically and

Money: Vintage Minis

by Yuval Noah Harari  · 5 Apr 2018  · 97pp  · 31,550 words

when super-fast computer programs are in charge of our money. Experts have been trying ever since to understand what happened in this so-called ‘Flash Crash’. They know algorithms were to blame, but are still not sure exactly what went wrong. Some traders in the USA have already filed lawsuits against

The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy

by Richard Duncan  · 2 Apr 2012  · 248pp  · 57,419 words

QE1 came to an end. Quantitative Easing: Round Two Five weeks after QE1 ended on March 31, 2010, the U.S. stock market experienced a flash crash when, in one day, stock prices plummeted 10 percent before recovering to close down only 3 percent on the day. By early July the stock

New Laws of Robotics: Defending Human Expertise in the Age of AI

by Frank Pasquale  · 14 May 2020  · 1,172pp  · 114,305 words

about $30.43 A computer glitch destroyed the firm Knight Capital, automatically generating tens of thousands of money-losing trades for the firm.44 The flash crash of 2010 has been put down to unexpected interactions among far more complex trading algorithms.45 The abstract patterns in any of these examples—of

Filterworld: How Algorithms Flattened Culture

by Kyle Chayka  · 15 Jan 2024  · 321pp  · 105,480 words

of artists who were critical of automated surveillance and data collection. While algorithmic feeds had only just begun entering mainstream experience, events like the 2010 Flash Crash, caused by algorithmic stock trading, and technology like facial recognition had implanted the word in news headlines. By the middle of the decade, when she

Geek Sublime: The Beauty of Code, the Code of Beauty

by Vikram Chandra  · 7 Nov 2013  · 239pp  · 64,812 words

delivering doses of radiation a hundred times more intense than required, resulting in the agonizing deaths of five people and injuries to many others; the “Flash Crash” of 2010, when the Dow Jones suddenly plunged a thousand points and recovered just as suddenly, apparently as a result of automatic trading programs reacting

Surviving AI: The Promise and Peril of Artificial Intelligence

by Calum Chace  · 28 Jul 2015  · 144pp  · 43,356 words

of the 2008 credit crunch to around 50% in 2012. (8) There is still confusion about the impact of this on the financial markets. The “flash crash” of 2010, in which the Dow Jones lost almost 10% of its value in a few minutes was initially blamed on high-frequency trading, but

The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse

by Mohamed A. El-Erian  · 26 Jan 2016  · 318pp  · 77,223 words

unconventional policies and is periodically subject to discomforting bouts of financial instability. Examples include the “taper tantrum” of May–June 2013, the U.S. Treasury “flash crash” in October 2014, the Swiss currency shock of January 2015, the volatility in German bond rates in May–June 2015, and the surprise China currency

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