Growth in a Time of Debt

Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea
by Mark Blyth
Published 24 Apr 2013

It’s a problem, and those arguing for austerity out of more than just an innate hatred of the state and all its works are not tilting at windmills. While we may not be “drowning in debt,” there are many folks out there who are concerned that we will do a bit more than just get our feet wet if we are not careful. Carmen Reinhardt and Kenneth Rogoff’s much-cited paper, “Growth in a Time of Debt,” argues that government debt above a critical threshold of 90 percent can become a substantial drag on the economy.17 This claim is not without its critics, but notwithstanding those criticisms, the basic point can be rephrased as, why would any state want to carry and pay for such a debt load if it didn’t have to?

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Leigh Phillips, “ECB Austerity Drive Raises Fears for Democratic Accountability in Europe,” The Guardian, August 22, 2011; Mort Zuckerman, “America Has No Choice but to Enter Its Own Age of Austerity,” Financial Times, July 14, 2011, “The A-List” Commentary; Alberto Alesina, Silvio Ardagna, Roberto Perotti, and Fabiano Schiantarelli (2002), “Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment,” American Economic Review, 92(3): 571–589; Peter Coy, “What Good Are Economists Anyway?” Bloomberg Business Week, April 16, 2009, cover story. 17. Carmen Reinhardt and Kenneth Rogoff, Growth in a Time of Debt, National Bureau of Economic Research (hereafter, NBER) working paper 15639, Cambridge, MA, January 2010. 18. See, for example, John Irons and Josh Bivens, “Government Debt and Economic Growth: Overreaching Claims of Debt ‘Threshold’ Suffer from Theoretical and Empirical Flaws,” Economic Policy Institute, Briefing Paper 271, Washington DC, July 16, 2010.

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“Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2002,” Executive Office of the President of the United States, 224, table S. 2, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BUDGET-2002-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2002-BUD.pdf. 27. Alberto Alesina, “Tax Cuts vs. ‘Stimulus’: The Evidence Is In,” Wall Street Journal, September 15, 2010, Opinion; Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff “Growth in a Time of Debt,” American Economic Review, 100, 2 (2010): 573–578. 28. Timothy Noah, “Introducing the Great Divergence,” Slate, September 3, 2010, Part of a series entitled “The United States of Inequality,” http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/the_great_divergence/features/2010/the_united_states_of_inequality/introducing_the_great_divergence.html. 29.

Science Fictions: How Fraud, Bias, Negligence, and Hype Undermine the Search for Truth
by Stuart Ritchie
Published 20 Jul 2020

When they published a major paper in 2010, the economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff thought they’d hit the stylised-fact jackpot. For two years, politicians had been frantically trying to address the fallout of the 2008 financial crisis and the ensuing Great Recession. Amid all the conflicting advice, Reinhart and Rogoff’s paper, entitled ‘Growth in a Time of Debt’, was a godsend, providing strong evidence to recommend one particular course of economic action: austerity.2 Reinhart and Rogoff had studied the debt-to-GDP ratio – the relationship between what a country owes to its creditors (its public debt, which, perhaps confusingly, is also known as its government debt or its sovereign debt) and what new goods and services it can produce (its Gross Domestic Product).

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Daniel Hirschman, ‘Stylized Facts in the Social Sciences’, Sociological Science 3 (2016): pp. 604–26; https://doi.org/10.15195/v3.a26 2.  The study was an online ‘working paper’ for a while (as is normal in economics, as we’ll see in the final chapter), but it was eventually officially published as Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, ‘Growth in a Time of Debt’, American Economic Review 100, no. 2 (May 2010): pp. 573–78; https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.2.573 3.  Osborne: George Osborne, ‘Mais Lecture – A New Economic Model’, 24 Feb. 2010; https://conservative-speeches.sayit.mysociety.org/speech/601526; Republican members: United States Senate Committee on the Budget, ‘Sessions, Ryan Issue Joint Statement On Jobs Report, Call For Senate Action On Budget’, 8 July 2011; https://www.budget.senate.gov/chairman/newsroom/press/sessions-ryan-issue-joint-statement-on-jobs-report-call-for-senate-action-on-budget 4.  

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University College London University of British Columbia University of California Berkeley Los Angeles University of Connecticut University of East Anglia University of Edinburgh University of Hertfordshire University of London University of Pennsylvania unsaturated fats unwarranted advice vaccines Vamplew, Peter Vanity Fair Vatican Vaxxed Viagra vibration-of-effects analysis virology Wakefield, Andrew Walker, Matthew Wansink, Brian Washington Post weasel wording Weisberg, Michael Wellcome Trust western blots Westfall, Jake ‘Why Most Published Research Findings Are False’ (Ioannidis) Why We Sleep (Walker) Wiley Wiseman, Richard Wolfe-Simon, Felisa World as Will and Presentation, The (Schopenhauer) World Health Organisation (WHO) Yale University Yarkoni, Tal Yes Men Yezhov, Nikolai Z-tests Ziliak, Stephen Zimbardo, Philip Zola, Émile About the Author Stuart Ritchie is a lecturer in the Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre at King’s College London.

Buying Time: The Delayed Crisis of Democratic Capitalism
by Wolfgang Streeck
Published 1 Jan 2013

The stock markets will react’ (Thielemann, ‘Das Ende der Demokratie’, p. 820). 72 Presumably this is so only beneath a certain level of debt. An influential expert view is that 80 per cent of GDP is the threshold beyond which the public debt hinders future growth (C. Reinhart and K. Rogoff, Growth in a Time of Debt, NBER Working Paper No. 15639, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2009). If this is true – like all econometric ‘laws’, it should be treated with utmost caution – many developed economies are already incapable of growth. 73 See a few thoughts on the subject in chapter 4 below. 74 In combination with low interest rates, capital controls and high inflation, this may add up to a public debt reduction strategy.

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Raithel, Thomas et al. (eds), Auf dem Weg in eine neue Moderne? Die Bundesrepublik Deutschland in den siebziger und achtziger Jahren, Munich: Oldenbourg Wissenschaftsverlag, 2009. Rappaport, Alfred, Creating Shareholder Value, New York: The Free Press, 1986. Reinhart, Carmen M. and Kenneth S. Rogoff, Growth in a Time of Debt, NBER Working Paper No. 15639, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2009. Reinhart, Carmen M. and M. Belen Sbrancia, The Liquidation of Government Debt, NBER Working Paper No. 16893, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2011. Rose, Richard, ‘Inheritance Before Choice in Public Policy’, Journal of Theoretical Politics, vol. 2/3, 1990, pp. 263–91. ———. and Phillip L.

Thinking with Data
by Max Shron
Published 15 Aug 2014

The rebuttals to a cost/benefit analysis are that costs and benefits have been miscalculated, that this is generally not the right method to make such a decision, or that the calculations for cost and benefit do not take into account other costs or benefits that reorder the answers. Next-quarter cash earnings may conflict with long-term profitability, or with legal restrictions that would land a decision maker in jail. * * * [6] Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. Growth in a Time of Debt. NBER Working Paper No. 15639, 2010. http://www.nber.org/papers/w15639. [7] Herndon, Thomas, Michael Ash, and Robert Pollin. Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff. PERI Working Paper No. 322, 2013. http://bit.ly/1gIDQfN. [8] Such as cross-validation, external validation, analysis of variance, bootstrapping, t-tests, Bayesian evidence, and so on

The Health Gap: The Challenge of an Unequal World
by Michael Marmot
Published 9 Sep 2015

Report of task group 2: Employment and working conditions including occupation, unemployment and migrant workers 2012 [updated 2012/08/13]. Available from: https://www.instituteofhealthequity.org/members/workplans-and-draft-reports. 28Ibid. 29Lewis M. The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine. London: Allen Lane, 2011. 30Reinhart C, Rogoff K. Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review. 2010; 100(2): 473–8. 31Herndon T, Ash M, Pollin R. Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff. Political Economy Research Institute – Working Paper Series. 2013; April(322). 32International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook October 2012: Coping with High Debt and Sluggish Growth.

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In: Weinstein M, Lane MA, editors. Sociality, Hierarchy, Health: Comparative Biodemography: A Collection of Papers. Washington DC: National Academies Press, 2014. 10 LIVING FAIRLY IN THE WORLD 1Yang J. Did politics ruin ‘the world’s coolest mayor’? Toronto Star. 23 June 2014. 2Reinhart C, Rogoff K. Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review. 2010; 100(2): 473–8. 3Herndon T, Ash M, Pollin R. Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff. Political Economy Research Institute – Working Paper Series. 2013; April(322). 4Stuckler D, Basu S. The Body Economic: Why Austerity Kills.

Value of Everything: An Antidote to Chaos The
by Mariana Mazzucato
Published 25 Apr 2018

UNDERVALUING THE PUBLIC SECTOR 1. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/mansion-house-2015-speech-by-the-chancellor-of-the-exchequer 2. ‘The third industrial revolution', The Economist, 21 April 2012: http://www.economist.com/node/21553017 3. K. Polanyi, The Great Transformation: The Political and Economic Origins of Our Time (1944; Boston MA: Beacon Press, 2001), p. 144. 4. C. M. Reinhart and K. S. Rogoff, ‘Growth in a time of debt', American Economic Review, 100(2) (2010), pp. 573-8. 5. Ibid., p. 573. 6. T. Herndon, M. Ash and R. Pollin, ‘Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff', Cambridge Journal of Economics, 38(2) (2014), pp. 257-79: http://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bet075, p. 5. 7.

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Reich, U. P. and Horz, K., ‘Dividing government product between intermediate and final uses', Review of Income and Wealth, 28(3) (1982), pp. 325-44. Reinert, E. S., How Rich Countries Got Rich and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor (London: Constable, 2008). Reinhart, C. M. and Rogoff, K. S., ‘Growth in a time of debt', American Economic Review, 100(2) (2010), pp. 573-8. Reinhart, C. M. and Rogoff, K. S., ‘Debt, growth and the austerity debate', New York Times, 25 April 2013: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/26/opinion/debt-growth-and-the- austerity-debate.html?_r=0 Reinhart, C. M. and Rogoff, K. S., ‘Reinhart and Rogoff: Responding to our critics', New York Times, 25 April 2013: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/26/opinion/reinhart-and-rogoff- responding-to-our-critics.html Ricardo, D., The Works and Correspondence of David Ricardo, ed.

Arguing With Zombies: Economics, Politics, and the Fight for a Better Future
by Paul Krugman
Published 28 Jan 2020

NASA’s Mars Orbiter crashed because engineers forgot to convert to metric measurements; JPMorgan Chase’s “London Whale” venture went bad in part because modelers divided by a sum instead of an average. So, did an Excel coding error destroy the economies of the Western world? The story so far: at the beginning of 2010, two Harvard economists, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, circulated a paper, “Growth in a Time of Debt,” that purported to identify a critical “threshold,” a tipping point, for government indebtedness. Once debt exceeds 90 percent of gross domestic product, they claimed, economic growth drops off sharply. Ms. Reinhart and Mr. Rogoff had credibility thanks to a widely admired earlier book on the history of financial crises, and their timing was impeccable.

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., 97, 118, 157 and recessions, 124, 142 government spending, economic growth driven by, 227 government stimulus: multiplier effect of, 116 Obama plan, 104, 107–8, 113–14, 115–17, 118–20, 131, 193, 206, 362 “Graduates Versus Oligarchs” (Krugman), 260, 282–84 Graham, Lindsey, 360 Gramlich, Edward, 91 Grassley, Charles, 54, 346 Great Depression, 81, 103, 106, 115, 157, 407 as economy’s adjustment to change, 134, 139 and Federal Reserve, 133, 140 and interest rates, 143 Keynes on, 137 loss of faith in the market system, 123, 131, 132 as problem of inadequate demand, 124, 138, 139, 144 and unemployment, 131, 215 Great Moderation, 130, 142, 409 Great Recession (2007–2009), 157, 407 “Great Slump of 1930, The” (Keynes), 137 Great Unraveling, The (Krugman), 9 Greece: austerity in, 163–65, 188 budget crisis (2009), 158 economy of, 153, 160, 178, 179, 184, 185–86, 188 elections in, 99 and euro, 99, 176, 186, 187 loans to, 182 unemployment in, 182 Green Book, 265 greenhouse gases, 330, 335, 339–40 Green New Deal, 208–9, 211, 328, 338–40 Greenspan, Alan: and the Fed, 140 and financial crisis, 94, 136 and housing bubble, 83, 84, 91, 141 and income inequality, 283 and interest rates, 161 and Social Security, 17, 19, 20 Gross, Bill, 89 “Growth in a Time of Debt” (Reinhart and Rogoff), 163–65 “Gullibility of the Deficit Scolds, The” (Krugman), 193–94 gun violence, 2 halo effect, 4 hard-money policy, 185 Hassett, Kevin, 84 Hastert, Dennis, 362, 363 Hastert rule, 362 Hawley, Josh, 225 Health and Human Services Department, 57, 368 health care, 35–37, 340 basic facts about, 38–40 competitiveness of, 40 costs of innovation in, 38–39 deductibility of health benefits, 199 failed Clinton plan (1993), 35, 37, 50, 378 government spending on, 116 inefficiency of, 39–40 and midterm election, 367 as morality issue, 44 private sector in, 31, 39–40 rising costs of, 17, 36, 38, 40, 200 scare tactics in, 44–45, 47, 49, 51, 54, 313 and socialized medicine, 43, 52 special interests in, 37, 45, 46, 48, 52, 67 Trump’s sabotage of, 351–52, 367, 371 see also Affordable Care Act; Medicaid; Medicare healthcare.gov, 77 health coverage: comparison shopping for, 43 competition in, 68 “death spiral” in, 68, 70, 71 employer-provided, 36, 37, 39, 61, 67, 71, 212, 286, 317, 339 government efficiency in, 30–31 government provision for, 36–37, 212 individual mandate for, 68, 69, 71, 313, 324 insurance exchanges in, 68, 70, 71 for lower-income families, 221, 305 minimum standards for, 68, 71 necessity of, 36, 68 for pre-existing conditions, 67, 68, 69, 71, 73, 74, 225, 307 single-payer system, 36–37, 51, 67, 324, 339 universal, 4, 35, 36, 42, 44–45, 46, 47–49, 50–52, 313, 317, 321, 339 V.H.A. system of, 40, 41–43 Heckscher-Ohlin model, 400–401, 403 Heller, Dean, 75, 225 Helpman, Elhanan, 398 Hersh, Seymour, 300 Hertel-Fernandez, Alexander, 305, 306 high development theory, 399 “Hijacked Commission, The” (Krugman), 194, 198–200 Himmelfarb, Gertrude, The De-Moralization of Society, 285–86 Hofstadter, Richard, “The Paranoid Style in American Politics,” 346 honesty and dishonesty, 7–8, 324 Hoover, Herbert, 161 Horton, Willie, 306 House Ways and Means Committee, 265 housing: construction spending, 88, 90 Flatland vs.

Other People's Money: Masters of the Universe or Servants of the People?
by John Kay
Published 2 Sep 2015

., p. 19. 5. Ibid. 6. Bagehot, W., 1873, Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market, New York, Scribner, Armstrong & Co. 7. Federal Reserve, Recent balance sheet trends. 8. Bank of England, Annual Reports 2007–14, Financial Statements. 9. Reinhart, C.M., and Rogoff, K.S., 2010, ‘Growth in a Time of Debt’, American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 100 (2), May, pp. 573–8. 10. Herndon, T., Ash, M., and Pollin, R., 2013, ‘Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff’, University of Amherst, Political Economic Research Institute Working Paper 322, has received almost as much attention as the original exercise. 11.

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., 1995, Going for Broke: Nick Leeson and the Collapse of Barings Bank, London, HarperCollins. Reader, W.J., 1970–75, Imperial Chemical Industries: A History, London, Oxford University Press. Reich, R.B., 1990, ‘Who Is Us?’, Harvard Business Review, January. Reinhart, C.M., and Rogoff, K.S., 2010, ‘Growth in a Time of Debt’, American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 100 (2), May, pp. 573–8. Rieffel, A., 2003, Restructuring Sovereign Debt: The Case for Ad Hoc Machinery, Washington, DC, Brookings Institution Press, pp. 289–94. Roosevelt, T., 1975, The Autobiography, Condensed from the Original Edition, Supplemented by Letters, Speeches, and Other Writings, ed.

The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System
by James Rickards
Published 7 Apr 2014

Makin, “Trillion-Dollar Deficits Are Sustainable for Now, Unfortunately,” American Enterprise Institute, December 13, 2012, http://www.aei.org/outloook/trillion-dollar-deficits-are-sustainable-for-now-unfortunately. Contrary to the oft-cited . . . : Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, “Growth in a Time of Debt,” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 15639, January 2010, http://www.nber.org/papers/w15639. “The Liquidation of Government Debt”: Carmen M. Reinhart and M. Belen Sbrancia, “The Liquidation of Government Debt,” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 16893, March 2011, http://www.nber.org/papers/w16893.

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Journal of Business 79, no. 4 (July 2006), http://econpapers.repec.org/article/ucpjnlbus/v_3a79_3ay_3a2006_3ai_3a4_3ap_3a1703-1726.htm. Pufeng, Major General Wang. “The Challenge of Information Warfare.” China Military Science, Spring 1995, http://www.fas.org/irp/world/china/docs/iw_mg_wang.htm. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. “Growth in a Time of Debt.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 15639, January 2010, http://www.nber.org/papers/w15639. Reinhart, Carmen M., and M. Belen Sbrancia. “The Liquidation of Government Debt.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 16893, March 2011, http://www.nber.org/papers/w16893.

The Shifts and the Shocks: What We've Learned--And Have Still to Learn--From the Financial Crisis
by Martin Wolf
Published 24 Nov 2015

These arguments were developed in Martin Wolf, ‘How Austerity has Failed’, The New York Review of Books, vol. LX, no. 12, 11 July–4 August 2013, pp. 20–22, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2013/jul/11/how-austerity-has-failed/?pagination=false. 23. Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, ‘Growth in a Time of Debt’, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 15639, January 2010, www.nber.org. 24. Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash and Robert Pollin, ‘Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff’, 15 April 2013, http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/working_papers/working_papers_301-350/WP322.pdf. 25.

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‘A Step in the Dark: Unconventional Monetary Policy after the Crisis’, Andrew Crockett Memorial Lecture, Bank for International Settlement, 23 June 2013. http://www.bis.org/events/agm2013/sp130623.pdf. Reinhart, Carmen M. and Kenneth S. Rogoff. This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2009). Reinhart, Carmen M. and Kenneth S. Rogoff. ‘Growth in a Time of Debt’, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 15639, January 2010. www.nber.org. Report of the Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards. Changing Banking for Good: Volume 1. Summary, and Conclusions and Recommendations, 12 June 2013. http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/joint-select/professional-standards-in-the-banking-industry/news/changing-banking-for-good-report.

Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science
by Dani Rodrik
Published 12 Oct 2015

Itzhak Gilboa, Andrew Postlewaite, Larry Samuelson, and David Schmeidler, “Economic Models as Analogies” (unpublished paper, January 27, 2013), 6–7. 17. See, for example, my online debate for the Economist magazine with Harvard Business School professor Josh Lerner, July 12–17, 2010, http://www.economist.com/debate/debates/overview/177. 18. Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, Growth in a Time of Debt, NBER Working Paper 15639 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2010). 19. Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash, and Robert Pollin, “Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff” (Amherst: University of Massachusetts at Amherst, Political Economy Research Institute, April 15, 2013). 20.

Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World
by Adam Tooze
Published 31 Jul 2018

Warnings ranged from outrageous rants and scaremongering from the likes of Beck to ultrarespectable academic research, most notably by two former IMF economists, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. Following their surprise bestseller This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, in January 2010 Reinhart and Rogoff launched a research paper with the title “Growth in a Time of Debt.”2 This purported to show that as public debts passed the threshold of 90 percent of GDP, economic growth slowed down sharply. It was a slippery slope that ended in a cliff. Excessive debt weighed on growth, which made the debt even less sustainable, further slowing growth. To avoid this fate, it was crucial to take action sooner rather than later.

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For this and the following, see http://www.foxnews.com/story/2010/02/12/glenn-beck-is-us-doomed-to-follow-greece-into-crisis.html. 2. C. M. Reinhart and K. Rogoff, This Time Is Different, Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009); and C. M. Reinhart and K. S. Rogoff, “Growth in a Time of Debt” (NBER Working Paper 15639, 2010). 3. J. Cassidy, “The Reinhart and Rogoff Controversy: A Summing Up,” New Yorker, April 26, 2013. 4. C. Reinhart and K. Rogoff, “Why We Should Expect Low Growth Amid Debt,” Financial Times, January 28, 2010. 5. “Germans Say Euro Zone May Have to Expel Greece: Poll,” Reuters, February 14, 2010. 6.

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See United Kingdom “great moderation”, 10, 11, 44 Greece, 15 austerity in, 330–31, 340, 376–77, 384–85, 409 cross-border financial flows in, 106–7 debt crisis in, 14, 322, 323–45, 357–59, 376–78, 381–89, 408–10, 422–29 debt restructuring and, 384–85, 388–89, 423–28 deficits in, 101, 324, 338 demonstrations in, 340, 375, 409 elections of 2012, 428 Eurogroup-Syriza debt restructuring confrontation, 517–35 extend-and-pretend in, 325, 328, 331, 336, 358–59, 376, 382–83, 401, 425, 529, 532 Fitch downgrade of debt of, 339 Papandreou replaced as prime minister, 409–10 real estate boom in, 107 rescue fund for, 342–44 social crisis in, 515–16 #Thisisacoup, 533 troika’s rescue plan for, 336–37, 339–40 unemployment in, 358–59, 374, 408, 428, 515 vote against troika proposal, 530 Greenspan, Alan, 29, 32, 37, 293, 574, 575 Gref, Herman, 503 Gross, Bill, 40, 349, 379, 481 “Growth in a Time of Debt” (Reinhart & Rogoff), 347 Habermas, Jürgen, 116, 122, 534 Hamilton Project, 25–27, 29, 36, 42, 182, 281, 451, 456, 458 Hammond, Philip, 560, 592 Hartz IV, 95 HBOS, 154, 171, 189–90 Hellwig, Martin, 313 Hensarling, Jeb, 182, 588 Hessel, Stéphane, 374 Hitachi, 158 Hollande, François, 429, 434, 518, 532 Honohan, Patrick, 363 housing market, 7 as collateral for banking, 43 bubble in American, 42–43 bubble in European, 105–6 collapse in, 143–44, 156–57 consumption, impact of rising prices on, 43 savings and loan crisis, 44–45 as single largest form of wealth, 42–43 speculation in, 65–66 See also mortgages/mortgage system HSBC, 75, 143–44, 145, 191, 541, 542 Hu Jintao, 244 Hungary, 121, 123, 126, 127, 227, 229, 230–32, 491–92 Hurricane Harvey, 582 Hypo Real Estate, 84, 154, 185, 188, 198, 286, 358, 378 Hyundai Motors, 256–57, 260 Iceland, 167, 232 Iglesias, Pablo, 376 IKB, 144 IMF.

Fed Up!: Success, Excess and Crisis Through the Eyes of a Hedge Fund Macro Trader
by Colin Lancaster
Published 3 May 2021

TALF (Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility) allowed the Fed to lend money to banks and other financial institutions on a nonrecourse basis. Because the money came from the Fed and not the Treasury, there was no congressional oversight of how the funds were doled out. 8 “Growth in a Time of Debt,” also known by its authors’ names as Reinhart–Rogoff, is an economics paper by American economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. The paper argues that when “gross external debt reaches 60% of GDP,” a country’s annual growth declines by 2%, and “for levels of external debt in excess of 90%,” GDP growth is “roughly cut in half.”

The Entrepreneurial State: Debunking Public vs. Private Sector Myths
by Mariana Mazzucato
Published 1 Jan 2011

Review of Economic Studies 21, no. 2: 81–106. _____. 1978. ‘Obstacles to Full Employment’. In Contributions to Modern Economics. New York, San Francisco: Academic Press. Rodrik, D. 2004. ‘Industrial Policy for the 21st Century’. CEPR Discussion Paper 4767. Rogoff, K. and C. Reinhart. 2010. ‘Growth in a Time of Debt’. American Economic Review 100, no. 2: 573–8. Roland, A. and P. Shiman. 2002. Strategic Computing: DARPA and the Quest for Machine Intelligence, 1983–1993. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Roush, W. 2010. ‘The Story of Siri, from Birth at SRI to Acquisition by Apple – Virtual Personal Assistants Go Mobile’.

The Corruption of Capitalism: Why Rentiers Thrive and Work Does Not Pay
by Guy Standing
Published 13 Jul 2016

Having large numbers of people deeply in debt and exposed to circumstances that make indebtedness more likely is also chipping away at freedom, which requires non-domination by external pressures. NOTES 1 ‘The never-ending story’, The Economist, 20 November 2015, p. 13. 2 C. Reinhart and K. Rogoff, ‘Growth in a Time of Debt’, NBER Working Paper No. 15639 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2010). 3 T. Herndon, M. Ash and R. Pollin, Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff (Amherst: Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts, 2013). 4 A.

Rethinking Capitalism: Economics and Policy for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth
by Michael Jacobs and Mariana Mazzucato
Published 31 Jul 2016

In the US, the cumulative amount committed by the Federal Reserve to shoring up the financial system has been calculated at between $7.77 trillion by Bloomberg—Secret Fed Loans Gave Banks $13 Billion Undisclosed to Congress, Bloomberg Markets, 28 November 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-11-28/secret-fed-loans-undisclosed-to-congress-gave-banks-13-billion-in-income (accessed 12 April 2016)—and $29 trillion by James Felkerson, $29,000,000,000,000: A Detailed Look at the Fed’s Bailout by Funding Facility and Recipient, Working Paper No. 698, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, 2011, http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_698.pdf (accessed 12 April 2016). 7 OECD, General government deficit (indicator), 2016, doi: 10.1787/77079edb-en (accessed 12 April 2016). 8 Testimony to the Congressional Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, 23 October 2008, https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-110hhrg55764/html/CHRG-110hhrg55764.htm (accessed 12 April 2016). 9 R. J. Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press, 2000. 10 C. Reinhart and K. Rogoff, ‘Growth in a time of debt’, American Economic Review, vol. 100, no. 2, 2010, pp. 573–8. 11 L. Laeven and F. Valencia, Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database, IMF Working Paper No. 224, November 2008. 12 J. A. Turner, Between Debt and the Devil: Money, Credit, and Fixing Global Finance, Princeton and Oxford, Princeton University Press, 2016. 13 Unemployment was lower in 2014 than in 2007 in five OECD countries: Chile, Germany, Israel, Japan and Poland.

Prosperity Without Growth: Foundations for the Economy of Tomorrow
by Tim Jackson
Published 8 Dec 2016

Process Intensification: Engineering for Efficiency, Sustainability and Flexibility. Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann. Reinhart, Carmen and Kenneth Rogoff 2013. ‘Financial and sovereign debt crises: some lessons learned and those forgotten’. IMF Working Paper WP/13/266. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. Reinhart, Carmen and Kenneth Rogoff 2010. ‘Growth in a time of debt’. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 100: 573–578. Ridley, Matt 1996. The Origins of Virtue. London: Penguin Books. Ridley, Matt 1994. The Red Queen – Sex and the Evolution of Human Nature. London: Penguin Books. Ritzer, George 2004. The McDonaldization of Society. New York: Pine Forge Press.

The Euro: How a Common Currency Threatens the Future of Europe
by Joseph E. Stiglitz and Alex Hyde-White
Published 24 Oct 2016

article=1026&context=econ_faculty_pubs. 58 See, for example, International Monetary Fund, “Will It Hurt? Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation,” chapter 3 in 2010 World Economic Outlook. 59 Eurostat figures for the eurozone for March 2016. 60 See, for example, International Monetary Fund, “Will It Hurt?” 62 Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, “Growth in a Time of Debt,” American Economic Review 100, no. 2 (May 2010): 573–78. 62 By now, there is a large literature on the subject. See, for example, Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash, and Robert Pollin, “Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff,” Cambridge Journal of Economics 38, no. 2 (2014): 257–79; Ugo Panizza and Andrea F.

Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance
by Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Mihm
Published 10 May 2010

“Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier?” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper no. 11728, November 2005. Online at http://www.nber.org/papers/w11728. Subsequently published as “Has Finance Made the World Riskier?” European Financial Management 12 (2006): 499-533. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. “Growth in a Time of Debt.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper no. 15639, January 2010. Online at http://www.nber.org/papers/w15639. ____. “Is the 2007 US Sub-prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison.” American Economic Review 98 (2008): 339-44. ____. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.

Them And Us: Politics, Greed And Inequality - Why We Need A Fair Society
by Will Hutton
Published 30 Sep 2010

Portsmouth’s predicament compares starkly with the current approach favoured by its south-coast neighbours, Southampton, of building up the side over time. 3 Margot Finn (2003) The Character of Credit: Personal Debt in English Culture, 1740–1914, Cambridge University Press. 4 McKinsey Global Institute (2010) ‘Debt and Deleveraging: The Global Credit Bubble and its Economic Consequences’, report. 5 Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff (forthcoming) ‘Growth in a Time of Debt’, prepared for the American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings. 6 McKinsey Global Institute (2010) ‘Debt and Deleveraging: The Global Credit Bubble and its Economic Consequences’, report. 7 Richard Koo (2008) The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan’s Great Recession, John Wiley & Sons. 8 Robert Chote, Carl Emmerson and Jonathan Shaw (eds) (2010) The Green Budget 2010, Institute for Fiscal Studies. 9 Ken Coutts and Robert Rowthorn (2009) ‘Prospects for the UK Balance of Payments’, University of Cambridge Centre for Business Research Working Paper No. 394. 10 Kenneth Rogoff (2003) ‘Globalisation and Global Disinflation’, presented to the Conference on Monetary Policy and Uncertainty: Adapting to a Changing Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. 11 Olivier Blanchard and John Simon, ‘The Long and Large Decline in US Output Volatility’, Brooklyn Papers on Economic Activity 1 (2001): 135–64. 12 On similar themes, see Jonathan McCarthy and Egon Zakrajsek (2003) ‘Inventory Dynamics and Business Cycles: What Has Changed?’

European Spring: Why Our Economies and Politics Are in a Mess - and How to Put Them Right
by Philippe Legrain
Published 22 Apr 2014

That is why consistent and carefully calibrated fiscal consolidation remains necessary in Europe.” http://ec.europa.eu/commission_2010-2014/rehn/documents/cab20130213_en.pdf 203 Eurostat, general government consolidated gross debt. Code: tsieb090. In the eurozone as a whole this was 85.4 per cent of GDP in 2010, 87.3 per cent in 2011 and 90.6 per cent in 2012. 204 Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, "Growth in a Time of Debt", NBER working paper 15639, January 2010 205 http://www.nextnewdeal.net/rortybomb/guest-post-reinhartrogoff-and-growth-time-debt 206 A point eloquently made by Adam Posen here: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a6d94b02-a774-11e2-9fbe-00144feabdc0.html 207 Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash and Robert Pollin, "Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth?

How to Be a Liberal: The Story of Liberalism and the Fight for Its Life
by Ian Dunt
Published 15 Oct 2020

That drove up interest rates on borrowing, which would in turn plunge countries further into the red, trapping them in debt servitude. This argument was given additional potency in 2010 by the publication of a research paper by two former IMF economists, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, called Growth in a Time of Debt. It contained an alarming finding. Once public debt passed 90 per cent of GDP, it said, something happened. Economic growth slowed. The economy couldn’t get out from under the sheer weight of state borrowing. Government revenue dwindled, more and more money was spent on servicing the debt, and hopes of ever paying it off vanished.

Not Working: Where Have All the Good Jobs Gone?
by David G. Blanchflower
Published 12 Apr 2021

Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Reeves, A. M., M. McKee, and D. Stuckler. 2014. “Economic Suicides in the Great Recession in Europe and North America.” British Journal of Psychiatry 205: 246–47. Reinhart, C. M., and K. S. Rogoff. 2009. “The Aftermath of Financial Crises.” NBER Working Paper #14656. ———. 2010. “Growth in a Time of Debt.” American Economic Review 100 (2): 573–78. Reis, R. 2017. “Is Something Really Wrong with Macroeconomics?” Oxford Review of Economic Policy 34 (1–2): 132–55. Rieder, T. N. 2017. “In Opioid Withdrawal, with No Help in Sight.” Health Affairs 36 (1): 182–85. Rinne, U., and K. F. Zimmermann. 2012.

The Bankers' New Clothes: What's Wrong With Banking and What to Do About It
by Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig
Published 15 Feb 2013

Rajan, Uday, Amit Seru, and Vikrant Vig. 2010. “The Failure of Models to Predict Models.” Working paper. University of Chicago, Chicago. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth Rogoff. 2009. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. ———. 2010. “Growth in a Time of Debt.” American Economic Review 100 (2): 573–578. Reiss, Peter. 1990. “Economic and Financial Determinants of Oil and Gas Exploration Activity.” In Asymmetric Information, Corporate Finance and Investment, ed. R. Glenn Hubbard. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Ricardo, David. 1817. “The Principles of Political Economy and Taxation.”

The Economists' Hour: How the False Prophets of Free Markets Fractured Our Society
by Binyamin Appelbaum
Published 4 Sep 2019

Alesina and Ardagna were graduates of the School of Economics at Bocconi University in Milan, founded by the conservative economist and politician Luigi Einaudi, who served as Italy’s president from 1948 to 1955. The school became associated with the economic theory that deficit reduction could spur economic growth. 7. Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, “Growth in a Time of Debt,” January 2010, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 15639. 8. The error was discovered by Thomas Herndon, a graduate student at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, who was doing his homework: The assignment was to pick a published economics paper and try to replicate the results.

Money and Government: The Past and Future of Economics
by Robert Skidelsky
Published 13 Nov 2018

Reich, R. (2010), Aftershock: The Next Economy and America’s Future. New York: Alfred A. Knopf. Reinhart, C. M. and Rogoff, K. S. (2010a), Debt and Growth Revisited. Available at: http://voxeu.org/article/debt-and-growth-revisited [Accessed 5 August 2017]. Reinhart, C. M. and Rogoff, K. S. (2010b), Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review, 100 (2), pp. 573–8. Reinhart, C. M. and Rogoff, K. S. (2011 (2009)), This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Ricardo, D. (2005 (1810)), The High Price of Bullion, A Proof of the Depreciation of Bank Notes.