Hans Moravec

The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology

by Ray Kurzweil  · 14 Jul 2005  · 761pp  · 231,902 words

science and brain reverse-engineering), John Parmentola (physics, military technology), Dean Kamen (technology development), Neil Gershenfeld (computational technology, physics, quantum mechanics), Joel Gershenfeld (systems engineering), Hans Moravec (artificial intelligence, robotics), Max More (technology acceleration, philosophy), Jean-Jacques E. Slotine (brain and cognitive science), Sherry Turkle (social impact of technology), Seth Shostak (SETI

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Age of Intelligent Machines, presented a future headed inevitably toward machines greatly exceeding human intelligence in the first half of the twenty-first century.20 Hans Moravec's 1988 book Mind Children came to a similar conclusion by analyzing the progression of robotics.21 In 1993 Vinge presented a paper to a

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of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence, described the increasingly intimate connection between our biological intelligence and the artificial intelligence we are creating.23 Hans Moravec's book Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind, also published in 1999, described the robots of the 2040s as our "evolutionary heirs," machines that will

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price-performance of computing at the beginning of the twentieth century and two years in the middle, and it takes about one year currently.37 Hans Moravec provides the following similar chart (see the figure below), which uses a different but overlapping set of historical computers and plots trend lines (slopes) at

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proof of a Boolean algebra conjecture by Herbert Robbins that had eluded mathematicians for sixty years. And it is still only Spring. Wait until Summer. —HANS MORAVEC, “WHEN WILL COMPUTER HARDWARE MATCH THE HUMAN BRAIN?” 1997 What is the computational capacity of a human brain? A number of estimates have been made

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would mean a delay of only about fifteen years, and a factor of one billion would be a delay of about twenty-one years.35 Hans Moravec, legendary roboticist at Carnegie Mellon University, has analyzed the transformations performed by the neural image-processing circuitry contained in the retina.36 The retina is

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human hearing operates. Although a work in progress, the model illustrates the feasibility of converting neurobiological models and brain-connection data into working simulations. As Hans Moravec and others have speculated, these efficient functional simulations require about one thousand times less computation than would be required if we simulated the nonlinearities in

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developing an artificial system that could replace the eye, retina, and early optic-nerve processing. In chapter 3, I mentioned the work of robotics pioneer Hans Moravec, who has been reverse engineering the image processing done by the retina and early visual-processing regions in the brain. For more than thirty years

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, we are starting to learn to reprogram our biology to achieve the virtual elimination of disease, dramatic expansion of human potential, and radical life extension. Hans Moravec points out, however, that no matter how successfully we fine-tune our DNA-based biology, humans will remain "second-class robots," meaning that biology will

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and throughput, users gain by enabling rapid product changeover and evolution that can't be matched with hard tooling." One of AI's leading roboticists, Hans Moravec, has founded a company called Seegrid to apply his machine-vision technology to applications in manufacturing, materials handling, and military missions.203 Moravec's software

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in and of itself, the emergent patterns have the same potential role in nonbiological systems as they do in biological systems such as the brain. Hans Moravec has written, "Searle is looking for understanding in the wrong places....[He] seemingly cannot accept that real meaning can exist in mere patterns.37 Let

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): 11216–18. 19. Vernor Vinge, "First Word," Omni (January 1983): 10. 20. Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Intelligent Machines (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1989). 21. Hans Moravec, Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1988). 22. Vernor Vinge, "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive

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available at http://www.KurzweiW.net/vingesing. 23. Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence (New York: Viking, 1999). 24. Hans Moravec, Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind (New York: Oxford University Press, 1999). 25. Damien Broderick, two works: The Spike: Accelerating into the Unimaginable Future (Sydney

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/computer/comphist.html (requires password); the Machine Room, http://www.machine-room.org; Mind Machine Web Museum, http://www.userwww.sfsu.edu/~hl/mmm.html; Hans Moravec, computer data, http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/book97/ch3/processor.list; "PC Magazine Online: Fifteen Years of PC Magazine," http://www.pcmag.com

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); International Association of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), Annals of the History of the Computer 9.2 (1987): 150–53 and 16.3 (1994): 20; Hans Moravec, Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1988); Rene Moreau, The Computer Comes of Age (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT

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the rate of the exponential growth—the exponent—is itself growing exponentially over time) in computational power as measured by MIPS per unit cost. 38. Hans Moravec, "When Will Computer Hardware Match the Human Brain?" Journal of Evolution and Technology 1 (1998), http://www.jetpress.org/volumel/moravec.pdf. 39. See note

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, so the actual figure is eight years. 35. Each subsequent thousandfold increase is itself occurring at a slightly faster rate. See the previous note. 36. Hans Moravec, "Rise of the Robots," Scientific American (December 1999): 124–35, http://www.sciam.com and http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/robot

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their own and they'll do things that we can't imagine or understand—you know, just the way children do" (Nova Online interview with Hans Moravec, October 1997, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/robots/moravec.html). His books Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence and Robot: Mere

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Before Sending Visual Information to Brain, UC Berkeley Research Shows," March 28, 2001, www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/200l/03/28_wers1.html. 105. Hans Moravec and Scott Friedman have founded a robotics company called Seegrid based on Moravec's research. See www.Seegrid.com. 106. M. A. Mahowald and C

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, 2004, http://www.wired.com/news/autotech/0,2554,63900,00.html. 213. Marvin Minsky, The Society of Mind (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1988). 214. Hans Moravec, "When Will Computer Hardware Match the Human Brain?" Journal of Evolution and Technology 1 (1998). 215. Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines (New York

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a Computer," in Richards et al., Are We Spiritual Machines? 36. John R. Searle, The Rediscovery of the Mind (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1992). 37. Hans Moravec, Letter to the Editor, New York Review of Books, http://www.kurzweiltech.com/Searle/searle_response_letter.htm. 38. John Searle to Ray Kurzweil, December

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15, 1998. 39. Lanier, "One Half of a Manifesto." 40. David Brooks, "Good News About Poverty," New York Times November 27, 2004, A35. 41. Hans Moravec, Letter to the Editor, New York Review of Books, http://www.kurzweiltech.com/Searle/searle_response_letter.htm. 42. Patrick Moore, "The Battle for Biotech

The Transhumanist Reader

by Max More and Natasha Vita-More  · 4 Mar 2013  · 798pp  · 240,182 words

The Society of Mind (Simon & Schuster, 1988); and The Emotion Machine: Commonsense Thinking, Artificial Intelligence, and the Future of the Human Mind (Simon & Schuster, 2007). Hans Moravec, PhD, is Research Professor at Robotics Institute, Carnegie Mellon University. He authored Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind (Oxford University Press, 2000); and Mind Children

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the experience of achieving something or actually achieving it, and how clear is the distinction (Nozick 1974)? Taking this line of thinking further, transhumanists from Hans Moravec to Nick Bostrom have asked how likely it is that we are already living in a simulation (Moravec 1989; Bostrom 2003). An obvious metaphysical question

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This project resulted through the collaborative advice of Drs. Robert Freitas, Michael Rose, Greg Fahy, Marvin Minsky, Roy Walford, Max More, Robin Hanson, Vernor Vinge, Hans Moravec, and Gregory Benford. 12 In this essay, the desire for technological enhancement relates to proponents of human enhancement, which include those who seek to resolve

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a unitary entity; the silliness of those who believe machines cannot be conscious; and why various approaches to machine intelligence are a bad idea. Roboticist Hans Moravec forms a picture of the cybernetic human mind in his 1992 essay “Pigs in Cyberspace.” As machines become smarter, organizations of robots with increased intelligence

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’ll be glad to start a fight with anyone who wants to. Originally published in Extropy Online (2002). Copyright © Max More. 17 Pigs in Cyberspace Hans Moravec Exploration and colonization of the universe await, but Earth-adapted biological humans are ill equipped to respond to the challenge. Machines have gone farther and

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is that future humans run our reality as a historically accurate simulation of their past (our present). Within a 1992 essay entitled, “Pigs in Cyberspace”, Hans Moravec formulated (in modern terms) the idea of our reality as a simulation: An evolving cyberspace becomes effectively ever more capacious and long lasting, and so

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of magnitude smarter and more complex than us. We don’t live in a mere machine, but in a Transcendent Mind. The last chapter of Hans Moravec’s Robot – Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind (1999) has a fascinating preview of super-intelligent, human–AI hybrids spreading to the universe as “Mind Fire

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superhuman levels or it might mean that synthetic intelligences leave us far behind while we remain mired in the human condition. Some writers, such as Hans Moravec, at least sometimes seem to expect this outcome and are unconcerned about it. This might better be described as a type of posthumanism, except that

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that the largest 1992 computers were within three orders of magnitude of the power of the human brain. The majority of the participants agreed with Hans Moravec’s estimate (1988)3 that we are 10 to 40 years away from hardware parity. And yet there was another minority who conjectured that the

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soft takeoff is a transition that takes decades, perhaps more than a ­century. This situation seems much more amenable to planning and to thoughtful ­experimentation. Hans Moravec discusses such a soft transition in Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind. Of course (as with starting avalanches), it may not be clear what the

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C. Dennett (New York: Basic Books, 1981) (my source for this reference). This reprinting contains an excellent critique of the Searle essay. 3 More recently, Hans Moravec has presented his reasoning in Robot (1999).Another recent reference is Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines (2000). References Bear, Greg (1983) “Blood Music.” Analog

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, where new technology reduces the doubling time. However, whether this produces a finite time singularity or merely accelerating growth depends on the exact functional form. Hans Moravec explored a model based on Vinge (Moravec 1999, 2003). He initially assumed that “world knowledge” X(t) produces an exponential speedup of computer performance . In

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but profoundly confused tract Enough: Staying Human in an Engineered Age (2003), McKibben states without feeling any need for supporting argument that Robert Ettinger and Hans Moravec and Gregory Stock and Robert Freitas and I advocate healthy life extension without our understanding how “weird or gross or boring” living forever would be

The Singularity Is Nearer: When We Merge with AI

by Ray Kurzweil  · 25 Jun 2024

fires only 0.29 times per second—implying that total brain computation could be as low as around 1013 operations per second.[145] This matches Hans Moravec’s seminal estimate, in his 1988 book Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence, which used a totally different methodology.[146] This still

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will lay the groundwork for much bigger breakthroughs during the next decade. When it comes to android function, technological progress faces a challenge my friend Hans Moravec identified several decades ago, now called Moravec’s paradox.[84] In short, mental tasks that seem hard to humans—like square-rooting large numbers and

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intellectual dexterity and the physical coordination (e.g., opposable thumbs) to enable technology. However, we are far from optimal, especially with regard to thinking. As Hans Moravec argued back in 1988, when contemplating the implications of technological progress, no matter how much we fine-tune our DNA-based biology, our flesh-and

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to, at most, about 1014 operations per second, according to my estimate in The Singularity Is Near—which is within an order of magnitude of Hans Moravec’s estimate based on a different analysis.[49] The US supercomputer Frontier can already top 1018 operations per second in an AI-relevant performance benchmark

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exaggerate the actual performance capabilities of newer machines, while rating old computers in FLOPS would misleadingly underrate them. Likewise, the information-theoretic approaches favored by Hans Moravec (1988) and William Nordhaus (2001)—while useful—do not capture the qualitative evolution of computing performance and applications. For example, Nordhaus’s MSOPS (million standard

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.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf. William D. Nordhaus, “The Progress of Computing,” discussion paper 1324, Cowles Foundation (September 2001), https://ssrn.com/abstract=285168. Hans Moravec, “MIPS Equivalents,” Field Robotics Center, Carnegie Mellon Robotics Institute, accessed December 2, 2021, https://web.archive.org/web/20210609052024/https://frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm

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/book97/ch3/processor.list. Hans Moravec, Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1988). Listed Machines, Data, and Sources CPI data sources “Consumer Price

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REFERENCE 144 “Neuron Firing Rates in Humans,” AI Impacts. BACK TO NOTE REFERENCE 145 Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near (New York: Viking, 2005), 125; Hans Moravec, Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence (Cambridge, MA; Harvard University Press, 1988), 59, https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=56mb7XuSx3QC. BACK

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of Sciences of the United States of America 89, no. 16 (August 15, 1992): 7320–24, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC49701; Hans Moravec, Mind Children (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1988), 1–50. BACK TO NOTE REFERENCE 84 John Hawks, “How Has the Human Brain Evolved?,” Scientific American

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, 1995–1997,” Annals of Surgery 230, no. 4 (October 1999): 533–43, https://doi.org/10.1097/00000658-199910000-00009. BACK TO NOTE REFERENCE 44 Hans Moravec, Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1988). BACK TO NOTE REFERENCE 45 Peter Weibel, “Virtual Worlds: The

Machines of Loving Grace: The Quest for Common Ground Between Humans and Robots

by John Markoff  · 24 Aug 2015  · 413pp  · 119,587 words

on to become the seminal researcher in the field. Mobile robots, paralleling Shakey at Stanford Research Institute, would be pursued at SAIL by researchers like Hans Moravec and later Rodney Brooks, both of whom became pioneering robotics researchers at Carnegie Mellon and MIT, respectively. It proved to be the first golden era

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of their human designers. You must drive several miles from the Carnegie Mellon University campus to reach a pleasantly obscure Pittsburgh residential neighborhood to find Hans Moravec. His office is tucked away in a tiny apartment at the top of a flight of stairs around the corner from a small shopping street

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the SAIL ethos was closer to the countercultural style of the San Francisco’s Fillmore Auditorium than it was to the Pentagon on the Potomac. Hans Moravec, an eccentric young graduate student, was camping in the attic of SAIL, while working on the Stanford Cart, an early four-wheeled mobile robot. A

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of 1977, McCarthy was already three years overdue on his ten-year goal for creating a working AI. It had also been two years since Hans Moravec fired his first broadside at McCarthy, arguing that exponentially growing computing power was the baseline ingredient to consider in artificial intelligence systems development. Brooks, whose

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are capable of—“pick up that red rag over there”—has remained a hard problem. Salisbury lived at the heart of the paradox described by Hans Moravec—things that are hardest for humans are easiest for machines, and vice versa. This paradox was first clarified by AI researchers in the 1980s, and

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Interview with Bruce G. Buchanan,” June 11–12, 1991, Charles Babbage Institute, University of Minnesota, http://conservancy.umn.edu/bitstream/107165/1/oh230bb.pdf. 23.Hans Moravec, Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1988), 20. 24.John McCarthy, “A Proposal for the Dartmouth Summer

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.John Markoff, “John McCarthy, 84, Dies; Computer Design Pioneer,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/26/science/26mccarthy.html?pagewanted=all. 30.Hans Moravec, “Today’s Computers, Intelligent Machines and Our Future,” Stanford University, July 21, 1976, http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1978

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/analog.1978.html. 31.Hans Moravec, “The Role of Raw Power in Intelligence,” May 12, 1976, http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1975/Raw.Power.html

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. 13.DARPAtv, “Darpa’s Pet-Proto Robot Navigates Obstacles,” Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, October 24, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFGfq0pRczY. 14.Hans Moravec, Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1988), 15. 15.Eric Berger and Keenan Wyrobek, “PR1 Robot Cleans

Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies

by Nick Bostrom  · 3 Jun 2014  · 574pp  · 164,509 words

be able to achieve a similar outcome with far greater efficiency. This observation has been used by some philosophers and scientists, including David Chalmers and Hans Moravec, to argue that human-level AI is not only theoretically possible but feasible within this century.5 The idea is that we can estimate the

The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence

by Ray Kurzweil  · 31 Dec 1998  · 696pp  · 143,736 words

Discrete Transistor Computers Integrated Circuit Computers THE EXPONENTIAL GROWTH OF COMPUTING, 1900-1998 In the 1980s, a number of observers, including Carnegie Mellon University professor Hans Moravec, Nippon Electric Company’s David Waltz, and myself, noticed that computers have been growing exponentially in power, long before the invention of the integrated circuit

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go with this approach. Our DNA-based cells depend on protein synthesis, and while protein is a marvelously diverse substance, it suffers from severe limitations. Hans Moravec, one of the first serious thinkers to realize the potential of twenty-first-century machines, points out that “protein is not an ideal material. It

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/comphist.html> The Machine Room <http://www.tardis.ed.ac.uk/~alexios/MACHINE-ROOM/> Mind Machine Web Museum <http://userwww.sfsu.edu/~hl/mmm.html> Hans Moravec at Carnegie Mellon University: Computer Data <http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/book97/ch3/processor.list> PC Magazine Online: Fifteen Years of PC Magazine

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Press, 1984). 20 For additional views on the future of computer capacity, see: Hans Moravec, Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1988); and “An Interview with David Waltz, Vice President, Computer Science

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computational linguistics are covered in Mary D. Harris, Introduction to Natural Language Processing (Reston, VA: Reston Publishing Co., 1985). CHAPTER 6: BUILDING NEW BRAINS ... 1 Hans Moravec is likely to make this argument in his 1998 book Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind (Oxford University Press; not yet available as of this

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will work with other tissues—and other species.” From “DNA Therapy: The New, Virus-Free Way to Make Genetic Repairs.” Time, March 16, 1998. 3 Hans Moravec, Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1988), p. 108. 4 Ralph Merkle’s comments on nanotechnology can

Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach

by Stuart Russell and Peter Norvig  · 14 Jul 2019  · 2,466pp  · 668,761 words

dangerous underground air and disturb the dead, and that the bicycle—especially the idea of a woman riding one—was the work of the devil. Hans Moravec (2000) introduces some of the ideas of transhumanism, and Bostrom (2005) gives an updated history. Good’s ultraintelligent machine idea was foreseen a hundred years

An Optimist's Tour of the Future

by Mark Stevenson  · 4 Dec 2010  · 379pp  · 108,129 words

aren’t supposed to be able to do. Think. Or at least convince you that they’re thinking. In a 2008 article for Scientific American, Hans Moravec, research professor at the Robotics Institute of Carnegie Mellon University reminded us that robotics had failed to live up to the predictions of the 1950s

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to the world. Time and again these ‘symbolic’ models couldn’t keep up with an ever-changing world. Brooks recalls how strong shadows had foxed Hans Moravec’s attempts to achieve autonomous motion in an MIT robot called the Cart. ‘The Cart got very confused about its model of the world, and

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. If a conscious humanlike intelligence is ‘computable’ by a machine, the processing power to compute it will be within reach of the desktop very soon. Hans Moravec wondered ‘what processing rate would be necessary to yield performance on par with the human brain?’ and came up with the gargantuan figure of one

The Alignment Problem: Machine Learning and Human Values

by Brian Christian  · 5 Oct 2020  · 625pp  · 167,349 words

some sense “self-driving” had by 1984 already been around for years, but to call the technology primitive would be perhaps too generous. Robotics pioneer Hans Moravec had, in his own PhD thesis at Stanford in 1980, enabled a robotic “cart” the size and shape of a desk on bicycle wheels to

Deep Thinking: Where Machine Intelligence Ends and Human Creativity Begins

by Garry Kasparov  · 1 May 2017  · 331pp  · 104,366 words

paradox, in chess, as in so many things, what machines are good at is where humans are weak, and vice versa. In 1988, the roboticist Hans Moravec wrote, “It is comparatively easy to make computers exhibit adult level performance on intelligence tests or playing checkers, and difficult or impossible to give them

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MIT; Noel Sharkey at the University of Sheffield; Nigel Crook at Oxford Brookes University; David Ferrucci at Bridgewater. I’ve never met Douglas Hofstadter or Hans Moravec, but their writings on human and machine cognition are especially provocative and essential. Special thanks to: My agent at the Gernert Company, Chris Parris-Lamb

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How Life Imitates Chess and Winter Is Coming. He lives in Brooklyn. NOTES INTRODUCTION “It is comparatively easy to make computers exhibit adult level performance.” Hans Moravec, Mind Children (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1988). Deep Blue matches beyond what was publicly known. A notable exception was the 2003 documentary film about

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