Science Fictions: How Fraud, Bias, Negligence, and Hype Undermine the Search for Truth
by Stuart Ritchie · 20 Jul 2020
that the people who make important decisions can easily keep in mind. When they published a major paper in 2010, the economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff thought they’d hit the stylised-fact jackpot. For two years, politicians had been frantically trying to address the fallout of the 2008 financial crisis
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while (as is normal in economics, as we’ll see in the final chapter), but it was eventually officially published as Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, ‘Growth in a Time of Debt’, American Economic Review 100, no. 2 (May 2010): pp. 573–78; https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100
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. Reinhart and Rogoff admitted the Excel error, though they didn’t agree with the critics on many of their other points: Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, ‘Reinhart-Rogoff Response to Critique’, Wall Street Journal, 16 April 2013; https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/04/16/reinhart-rogoff-response-to- critique/ 7. Herndon
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Party research grants research parasites resveratrol retraction Arnold Boldt Fujii LaCour Macchiarini Moon Obokata Reuben Schön Stapel Wakefield Wansink Retraction Watch Reuben, Scott Reuters RIKEN Rogoff, Kenneth romantic priming Royal Society Rundgren, Todd Russia doveryai, no proveryai foxes, domestication of Macchiarini affair (2015–16) plagiarism in salami slicing same-sex marriage sample
Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider’s View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead
by Kenneth Rogoff · 27 Feb 2025 · 330pp · 127,791 words
. The Henry L. Stimson Lectures Series OUR DOLLAR, YOUR PROBLEM An Insider’s View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead Kenneth Rogoff The Henry L. Stimson Lectures at the Whitney and Betty MacMillan Center for International and Area Studies at Yale. Published with assistance from the foundation
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established in memory of Amasa Stone Mather of the Class of 1907, Yale College. Copyright © 2025 by Kenneth Rogoff. All rights reserved. This book may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, including illustrations, in any form (beyond that copying permitted by Sections
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(as % of GDP) Greece 36 Italy 31 Spain 24 Portugal 24 France 14 Germany 13 Finland 10 Denmark 9 Sweden 6 Source: Francesco Pappada and Kenneth Rogoff, “Rethinking the Informal Economy and the Hugo Effect,” Journal of the European Economic Association (forthcoming). In general, the underground economy derives mainly from tax and
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in Global Trade: New Evidence,” Journal of International Economics 136 (May 2022): 677–719. 14. Figure 1 is updated from Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff, “Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 134, no. 2 (May 2019): 599–646. It is constructed
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. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, International Migrant Stock (New York, United Nations, 2019). 19. Rong Qian, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff, “On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crises: Elusive or Illusion?,” in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, ed. Daron Acemoglu and Michael Woodford (Chicago: University of
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Intervention: A Review of the Techniques and Literature,” Federal Reserve Staff Studies No. 132 (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1983). See also Kenneth Rogoff, “On the Effects of Sterilized Intervention: An Analysis of Weekly Data,” Journal of Monetary Economics 14 (1984): 133–150. 18. On September 11, 1985,
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Data (International Monetary Fund). 10. Like figure 1, figure 6 is based on the algorithm and data set (updated) from Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff, “Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 134, no. 2 (May 2019): 599–646. 11. International Monetary
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Database (The Conference Board). 15. “Demography Could Be Yet Another Force for Divergence Within the EU,” Economist, January 11, 2020. 16. Hassan Afrouzi, Marina Halac, Kenneth Rogoff, and Pierre Yared, “Changing Central Bank Pressures and Inflation,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2024, no. 1, 205–241. 17. European Council, “Economic Governance Review
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next to a high-powered accountant on a plane a decade later, she explained that modern software had essentially eliminated currency-conversion accounting costs.) 20. Kenneth Rogoff, “NAChos and ECUs: Issues in the Transition to European Monetary Union” (paper presented to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Academic Consultants
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, July 26, 2012). 31. Chris Miller, Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology (New York: Scribner, 2022). 32. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, “Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten,” in Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, ed. Stijn Claessens et al. (Washington
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, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2014), 141–156. Chapter 5. This Time Is Different 1. Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang, “Peak China Housing,” Working Paper No. 27697 (National Bureau of Economic Research, August 2020). 2. “Measuring the Universe’s Most Important Sector
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. There are certainly exceptions, and it most typically shows up strongly only in exceptionally fast-growing economies; 1950s–1980s Japan is the canonical example. See Kenneth Rogoff, “The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle,” Journal of Economic Literature 34, no. 2 (June 1996): 647–668. 13. Kevin Honglin Zhang and Shunfeng Song, “Rural–
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collapse, reportedly killing at least 48 people. Alisha Rahaman Sarkar, “Highway Collapse in China Kills at Least 48 People,” Independent (London), May 2, 2024. 5. Kenneth Rogoff, “Debt Supercycle, Not Secular Stagnation,” in Progress and Confusion: The State of Macroeconomic Policy, ed. Olivier Blanchard et al. (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2016): 19
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Global Infrastructure Gap: Potential, Perils, and a Framework for Distinction,” Journal of Economic Literature 61, no. 4 (December 2023): 1318–1358. 21. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2009). 22. The importance to the U.S. economy of
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Eswar Prasad, “Has China’s Growth Gone from Miracle to Malady?,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2023, no. 1, 243–270, and accompanying discussion by Kenneth Rogoff. See also Nicholas Lardy, “How Serious Is China’s Economic Slowdown?,” Realtime Economics (blog), Peterson Institute for International Economics, August 17, 2023. 24. Neil Thomas
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. Claes Berg and Richard Grottheim, “Monetary Policy in Sweden Since 1992,” BIS Policy Papers No. 2 (Bank for International Settlements, 1997). 13. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff, “The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 9, no. 4 (Fall 1995): 73–96. 14. Maurice Obstfeld, “The Logic of Currency
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Crises,” Cahiers économiques et monétaires 43 (1994): 189–213. Chapter 12. Hyperinflation 1. See Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2009), chap. 12. 2. A partial list of the very
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Yemen), as well as the former Soviet bloc countries (Poland, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Croatia, Estonia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Russia). For a complete list, see Kenneth Rogoff, “Globalization and Global Disinflation,” in Monetary Policy and Uncertainty: Adapting to a Changing Economy (2003 Economic Policy Symposium proceedings) (Kansas City, Mo.: Federal Reserve Bank
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sanctions. Dany Bahar et al., “Impact of the 2017 Sanctions on Venezuela: Revisiting the Evidence,” policy brief (Brookings Institution, May 2019). 10. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, “Venezuela’s Spectacular Underperformance,” Project Syndicate, October 13, 2014. 11. Vanessa Buschschlüter, “Venezuela Crisis: 7.1 Million People Leave Country Since 2015,” BBC, October 17
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, 2022. 12. Kenneth Rogoff, “Why Did Trump Accept Venezuela’s Money?,” Project Syndicate, May 4, 2017. (Truth is stranger than fiction.) 13. Anatoly Kurmanaev, Frances Robles, and Julie Turkewitz
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Times, December 15, 1994; Boughton, “Tequila Hangover,” 460. 18. Mark Shields, “A Tale of Two Letters,” Washington Post, January 14, 1982. 19. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff, “The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 9, no. 4 (Fall 1995): 73–96. Chapter 13. When Exchange Rate Pegs Outlive Their
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Shelf Life 1. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff, Foundations of International Macroeconomics (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press: 1996). 2. “Thai Baht to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate” (series: DEXTHUS), FRED (Federal Reserve Bank
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. 4. Currency conversions and per capita GDP for Indonesia (series: CCUSSP02IDM650N and NYGDPPCAPKDIDN), FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). 5. See Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2009). The chaos surrounding Indonesia’s 1966 default is famously
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. Joseph Stiglitz, Globalization and Its Discontents (New York: Norton, 2002). 3. “Criticism for the Buenos Aires Consensus,” MercoPress, November 2, 2003. 4. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, “The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 119, no. 1 (February 2004): 1–48. When one considers that roughly
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Buzan on the world mind games, among other projects.) 10. Reinhart and Rogoff, “The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements”; Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff, “Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 134, no. 2 (May 2019): 599–646. 11. Reinhart and
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City, 2014), 285–333. 11. Suman Basu et al., “A Conceptual Model for the Integrated Policy Framework,” Econometrica 92 (forthcoming). 12. Yu-chin Chen and Kenneth Rogoff, “Commodity Currencies,” Journal of International Economics 60, no. 1 (May 2003): 133–160. 13. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Hélène Rey, “U.S. Monetary Policy
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Business and Government, May 2022). 12. “IMF Should Give Poor Countries $300 Billion per Year to Fight Climate Crisis,” Guardian (London), October 13, 2023. 13. Kenneth Rogoff, “The Sisters at Sixty,” Economist (print edition), July 22, 2004. 14. Believe it or not, the Russian executive director Aleksei Mozhin was dean of the
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2022. The Russian executive director as of 2024 also represents Syria. See “IMF Directors and Voting Power,” International Monetary Fund, accessed March 5, 2024. 15. Kenneth Rogoff and Eduard Brau, “SDR Allocation in the Eighth Basic Period—Basic Considerations,” IMF Policy Paper (International Monetary Fund, November 16, 2001). 16. “2021 General SDR
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Mitchener and Christoph Trebesch, “Sovereign Debt in the Twenty-First Century,” Journal of Economic Literature 61, no. 2 (June 2023): 565–623, and Jeremy Bulow, Kenneth Rogoff, and Afonso Bevilaqua, “Official Creditor Seniority and Burden Sharing in the Former Soviet Bloc,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1992, no. 1, 195–222. 19
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. currency held domestically (versus abroad) on domestic cash holdings in countries with similar financial systems whose currency is not widely used abroad, such as Canada. Kenneth Rogoff, “Blessing or Curse? Foreign and Underground Demand for Euro Notes,” Economic Policy 13, no. 26 (April 1998): 263–303. The results are updated in
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technology for stamping coins with hard-to-replicate notches helped squash a spate of counterfeiting that had been threatening to undermine England’s finances. See Kenneth Rogoff, The Curse of Cash (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2016), chap. 2. 9. Andrea Baronchelli, Hanna Halaburda, and Alexander Teytelboym, “Central Bank Digital Currencies
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that the United States was at high risk of a financial crisis, and indeed the global financial crisis followed a year later. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, “Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison” (paper presented at the American Economic Association meetings, January
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advanced economies (although this was not Lucas’s original focus), and contract enforcement more important for poor countries and emerging markets. See Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, “North–South Lending and Endogenous Domestic Capital Market Inefficiencies,” Journal of Monetary Economics 26, no. 2 (October 1990): 245–266 (first circulated in 1989 as
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COVID-19 Pandemic,” special issue, Economic Policy Review (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) 28, no. 1 (June 2022): 93–113. 11. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2009). 12. Richard Posner, “Economists on the Defensive,” Atlantic, August
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, and Nicolas Govillot, “Exorbitant Privilege and Exorbitant Duty,” IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-20 (Bank of Japan, 2010). Chapter 24. Central Bank Independence 1. Kenneth Rogoff, “The Age of Inflation: Easy Money, Hard Choices,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2022. 2. The specter of rising political pressures on central banks to inflate
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is analyzed in Hassan Afrouzi, Marina Halac, Kenneth Rogoff, and Pierre Yared, “Changing Central Bank Pressures and Inflation,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2024, no.1, 205–241. 3. “Federal Debt: Total Public Debt
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dynamic whereby all governments spend excessively before elections, but the competent ones actually overspend by the most, since they get the biggest bang for it. Kenneth Rogoff and Anne Sibert, “Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles,” Review of Economic Studies 55, no. 1 (January 1988): 1–16. Note the difference between the
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Prescott, “Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans,” Journal of Political Economy 85, no. 3 (June 1977): 473–492. 9. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, “Shifting Mandates: The Federal Reserve’s First Centennial,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 103, no. 3 (May 2013): 48–54. 10. A prominent thesis
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of Lubomir Kavalek, “Magnus Carlsen Storms New York’s Chess Scene,” Huffington Post, September 5, 2012, which also appeared on Chessbase. 24. See, for example, Kenneth Rogoff, “Why Human Chess Survives,” Project Syndicate, November 18, 2018. Chapter 25. Debtor’s Empire 1. A theoretical rationale for financial repression, as a device for
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must combine the Fed and Treasury balance sheets to understand debt risks, since the Treasury ultimately absorbs all the Fed’s profits and losses. 18. Kenneth Rogoff, “America’s Looming Debt Decision,” Project Syndicate, August 8, 2016. 19. Robert Skidelsky, “The Scarecrow of National Debt,” Project Syndicate, August 24, 2016. 20.
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that particular issue happened to be of only minor quantitative significance. Moreover, a much more complete version of the paper—Carmen Reinhart, Vincent Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff, “Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes Since 1800,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 26, no. 3 (Summer 2012): 69–86, had no errors and reached
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example, Antonio Fata et al., “The Motive to Borrow,” in Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners, ed. S. Ali Abbas, Alex Pienkowski, and Kenneth Rogoff (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2019), 102–150. Indeed, the correlation we conjectured even comes through in the period of ultra-low interest rates that followed
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Maggiori, “A Model of the International Monetary System,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 133, no. 1 (February 2018): 295–355, and Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff, “Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 134, no. 2 (May 2019): 599–646, and references therein
The Curse of Cash
by Kenneth S Rogoff · 29 Aug 2016 · 361pp · 97,787 words
THE CURSE OF CASH THE CURSE OF CASH KENNETH S. ROGOFF PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON AND OXFORD Copyright © 2016 by Kenneth S. Rogoff Requests for permission to reproduce material from this work should be sent to Permissions, Princeton University Press Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street,
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Economic Society. Reprinted with the permission of Cambridge University Press. All Rights Reserved Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Rogoff, Kenneth S., author. Title: The curse of cash / Kenneth S. Rogoff. Description: Princeton : Princeton University Press, [2016] | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2016014943 | ISBN 9780691172132 (hardback : alk. paper) Subjects: LCSH
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. Cameron, Samuel. 2014. “Killing for Money and the Economic Theory of Crime.” Review of Social Economy 72 (1): 28–41. Canzoneri, Matthew, Dale Henderson, and Kenneth Rogoff. 1983. “The Information Content of the Interest Rate and Optimal Monetary Policy.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 98 (November): 545–66. Capie, Forest H., ed. 1991
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: How Much Does the U.S. Government Make from Money Production?” Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review 74 (2): 29–42. Obstfeld, Maurice, and Kenneth Rogoff. 1996. Foundations of International Macroeconomics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. ———.2002. “Global Implications of Self-Oriented National Monetary Rules.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 117: 503–36
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of Money, Credit and Banking 32 (4): 936–66. Reinhart, Carmen M., Vincent Reinhart, and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2015. “Dealing with Debt.” Journal of International Economics 96, suppl. 1 (July): S43–S55. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2002. “The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation.” NBER Working Paper 8963 (June
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21–23. Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank. Rognlie, Matthew. 2016. “What Lower Bound? Monetary Policy with Negative Interest Rates.” Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Rogoff, Kenneth S. 1985. “The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 100 (4): 1169–89. ———. 1998a. “Foreign and Underground Demand
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: University of Chicago Press. ———. 2016. “Debt Supercycle, Not Secular Stagnation.” In Progress and Confusion: The State of Macroeconomic Policy, edited by Olivier Blanchard, Raghuram Rajan, Kenneth Rogoff, and Lawrence H. Summers. Cambridge: MIT Press, pp. 19–28. Rolnick, Arthur J. 2004. “Interview with Ben S. Bernanke.” Minneapolis Federal Reserve, Region Magazine (June
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, 245n18, 255n10 Reinhart, Vincent, 243n3 reverse money laundering, 4, 80 Rey, Hélène, 207 Ricardian equivalence, 246n25 Robinson, James, 70 Rockoff, Hugh, 192 Rognlie, Matthew, 250n2 Rogoff, Kenneth S., 233n10, 243nn3–4, 245n14, 245n18, 252n2, 255nn9–10, 255n15 Rolnick, Arthur J., 234n13 Rösl, Gerhard, 236n23 Rubin, Robert, 2 Russell, David O., 71 (director
Never Let a Serious Crisis Go to Waste: How Neoliberalism Survived the Financial Meltdown
by Philip Mirowski · 24 Jun 2013 · 662pp · 180,546 words
with timeless laws, they insist. Indeed, this is the identical premise of some of the most popular crisis books of the last few years, from Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart’s This Time Is Different to David Graeber’s Debt: The First 5,000 Years.24 Yet that is precisely where the
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of early neoliberals such as Friedman and some denizens of the Cato Institute were subsequently tempered by others—such as Anne Krueger, Stanley Fischer, and Kenneth Rogoff—and as these neoliberals came to occupy these institutions, they used them primarily to influence staffing and policy decisions, and thus to displace other internationalist
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Great Depression. Indeed, they were rescued from having to seriously confront history by the intervention of a famous Harvard professor, and thus endorsed the convenient Kenneth Rogoff mantra that we could ignore anyone who insisted upon structural specificity in history, because every financial crisis was essentially the same.26 At that juncture
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up far exceeding its borrowing limits: so much for deficit reduction. The respondents were astoundingly mealy-mouthed, avoiding comment on their clear error (John Vickers, Kenneth Rogoff) or vaguely distancing themselves from Tory cuts by mumbling about “investments” (Roger Bootle, Danny Quah, David Newbery, Hashem Pesaran, Tim Besley); only two opted for
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they compiled was Ben Bernanke, John Maynard Keynes, Jeffrey Sachs, Hyman Minsky, and Paul Krugman; the “most important ideas” roster was Raghuram Rajan, Robert Shiller, Kenneth Rogoff, Barry Eichengreen, and Nouriel Roubini.78 If you were a member of the orthodoxy back then, it is hard to see how these lists could
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Press, 1960). Robin, Corey. The Reactionary Mind (New York: Oxford University Press, 2011). Robison, Richard. The Neoliberal Revolution: Forging the Market State (London: Palgrave, 2006). Rogoff, Kenneth, and Carmen Reinhart. This Time Is Different (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009). Roncaglia, Alessandro. Why Economists Got It Wrong: The Crisis and Its Cultural Roots
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of those anointed by the Economist magazine that same year as having “the most important ideas in a post-crisis world”: Raghuram Rajan, Robert Shiller, Kenneth Rogoff, and Barry Eichengreen. That magazine neglected to inform its readers that all four served as apologists for the orthodoxy. The doctrines of each are covered
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, Paul “Ricardian Equivalence,” Righteous Sound Thinking Risk Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (Knight) Ritalin Ritholtz, Barry Road to Serfdom (Hayek) Robbins, Lionel Robin, Corey Robinson, Joan Rogoff, Kenneth Rogoff Reinhart neoliberal line Romer, Christina Romer, Paul Romney, Mitt Roosevelt Institute Röpke, Wilhelm Rosner, Josh Rosston, Gregory Rothbard, Murray Roubini, Nouriel Royal Bank of
EuroTragedy: A Drama in Nine Acts
by Ashoka Mody · 7 May 2018
to experience bursts of inflation, had contained its inflation to near the euro-area average. Indeed, inflation had rapidly come down throughout the world. As Kenneth Rogoff, then the IMF’s chief economist and director of its research department, explained, competition from Chinese and other Asian exporters had “put downward pressure” on
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to large inflows and later to financial problems.”137 Sims also warned of the risk of sovereign defaults. In August 2003, economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff noted that Greece and Portugal belonged to the small club of “serial defaulters.”138 Both had defaulted on external creditors multiple times in the nineteenth
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creditors, there was no buyer for Lehman. On September 15, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. Stock prices declined. The stress in the interbank market rose. Kenneth Rogoff—Harvard University economics professor, former chief economist of the IMF, and a man who had dropped out of high school to become a chess grand
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only slowly. Throughout the south, the combination of low growth and high debt levels leaves countries vulnerable to “real-life stress tests,” as Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff predicted. Each stress test further reduces long-term growth potential, making the countries even more prone to unsustainable debt burdens and, hence, at risk of
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and Other European Finance Ministers.” Brussels, February 10. http://ec.europa.eu/archives/commission_ 2010-2014/rehn/documents/cab20130213_en.pdf. references 597 Reinhart, Carmen, Kenneth Rogoff, and Miguel Savastano. 2003. “Debt Intolerance.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1: 1–74. Reinhart, Carmen, and Christoph Trebesch. 2016. “Sovereign Debt Relief and Its
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-populist-backlash. Rogers, Iain. 2008. “German Government to Guarantee Deposit Accounts— Ministry.” Reuters News, October 5. Rogoff, Kenneth. 1985. “The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 110: 1169–1189. Rogoff, Kenneth. 2004. “Globalization and Global Disinflation.” In Monetary Policy and Uncertainty: Adapting to a Changing Economy, Federal
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Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 77–112. Rogoff, Kenneth. 2008. “No More Creampuffs.” Washington Post, September 16. Rogoff, Kenneth. 2017. “The Eurozone Must Reform or Die.” Project Syndicate, June 14. Roland, Denise. 2012. “Debt Crisis: As It Happened.” Telegraph Online
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, 348 La République En Marche (LREM), 403 Research Department (IMF), 174, 260, 283, 290 Rey, Hélène, 361 Reynders, Didier, 142–143, 310 Reynolds, Albert, 179 Rogoff, Kenneth, 174, 184, 185, 213, 221–222 Roldán, José María, 307 Rome, Treaty of. See Treaty of Rome Roosevelt, Franklin D., 49, 221, 265 Rose, Andrew
The Shifts and the Shocks: What We've Learned--And Have Still to Learn--From the Financial Crisis
by Martin Wolf · 24 Nov 2015 · 524pp · 143,993 words
developments, crisis-hit countries have been forced to struggle with worse fiscal positions than they had previously imagined. As the work of Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, both now at Harvard University, has shown, fiscal crises are a natural concomitant of financial crises, largely because of the impact on government revenue and
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retrenchment. Nobody should be surprised by the huge fiscal deterioration that followed the crisis. In their seminal book, This Time is Different, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff argue that: ‘Declining revenues and higher expenditures, owing to a combination of bailout costs and higher transfer payments and debt service costs, led to a
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most important. There was also the shift into structurally low inflation. Globalization seems to have been one of the most important explanations for this development. Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University, for example, argued in 2003 ‘that the most important and most universal factor supporting world-wide disinflation has been the mutually reinforcing
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public debt, even though the ratio of debt to GDP has remained below its average of the past three centuries. Research by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, both at Harvard University and celebrated as authors of This Time is Different, a justly influential book on financial and fiscal crises, supported the idea
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of Princeton as a way of describing the reduced volatility of US output. See ‘Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?’, in Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff (eds), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, vol. 17 (Boston: MIT Press, 2003) http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11075.pdf, p. 162. Pride goes before a fall
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Globalization Works discusses my intellectual history. See ibid., pp. ix – xviii. 10. On the frequency of financial crises since 1980, see Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2009) pp. 73– 5. 11. Daron Acemoglu offers an
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. 4. James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson coined the term ‘great moderation’ in ‘Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?’, in Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, eds, NBER Macroeconomic Annual 2012, vol. 17 (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003), http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11075.pdf. 5. Bernanke, ‘The Great Moderation’. 6
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and Robert Z. Aliber, Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, 6th edn (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2011). 7. See Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2009), pp. 231–2. 8. International Monetary Fund, ‘Currency
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1.1. The data exclude discretionary tightening. So they are likely to exaggerate the net effect of discretionary policy on deficits. 48. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2009), p. 231. See also Table 14.1. 49. The
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/wiki/Alvin_Hansen. 55. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_wealth_fund#Size_of_SWFs and http://www.swfinstitute.org/fund-rankings/. 56. See Kenneth Rogoff, ‘Globalization and Global Deflation’, Paper prepared for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City conference on ‘Monetary Policy and Uncertainty: Adapting to a Changing Economy
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August 2013, pp. 20–22, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2013/jul/11/how-austerity-has-failed/?pagination=false. 23. Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, ‘Growth in a Time of Debt’, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 15639, January 2010, www.nber.org. 24. Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash
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the Crisis’, Andrew Crockett Memorial Lecture, Bank for International Settlement, 23 June 2013. http://www.bis.org/events/agm2013/sp130623.pdf. Reinhart, Carmen M. and Kenneth S. Rogoff. This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2009). Reinhart, Carmen M. and
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Kenneth S. Rogoff. ‘Growth in a Time of Debt’, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 15639, January 2010. www.nber.org. Report of the Parliamentary Commission
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/joint-select/professional-standards-in-the-banking-industry/news/changing-banking-for-good-report. Robertson, James. Future Money: Breakdown or Breakthrough? (Devon: Green Books, 2012). Rogoff, Kenneth. ‘Globalization and Global Deflation’. Paper prepared for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City conference on ‘Monetary Policy and Uncertainty: Adapting to a Changing Economy
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York and London: W. W. Norton, 2012). Stock, James H. and Mark W. Watson. ‘Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?’, in Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, eds., NBER Macroeconomic Annual 20012, vol. 17 (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003). http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11075.pdf. Strupczeswki, Jan and Julien Toyer. ‘Eurozone
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Peking University, Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Raghuram Rajan, governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Carmen Reinhart of Harvard University, Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University, Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University, Hans-Werner Sinn of CESifo, George Soros, Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University, Andrew Smithers of Smithers & Co
Expected Returns: An Investor's Guide to Harvesting Market Rewards
by Antti Ilmanen · 4 Apr 2011 · 1,088pp · 228,743 words
inflation only became pervasive in the 20th century: Median inflation rate (5-year moving average) for all countries, 1500–2010. Sources: Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff (2008), “This time is different: A panoramic view of eight centuries of financial crises,” NBER working paper 13882, March 2008. Carmen M. Reinhart (2010
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time is different chartbook: Country histories on debt, default, and financial crises,” NBER working paper 15815. Reproduced by permission of Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff. During the gold standard (Britain adopted it in 1717, other developed countries in the 19th century), inflations and deflations took turns with no persistence, and
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provide neither safety nor performance in the coming decade. Figure 27.6. Global perspective on inflation and external default histories. Source: Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff (2008), “This time is different: A panoramic view of eight centuries of financial crises,” NBER working paper 13882. Reproduced by permission of Carmen M
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. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff. Figure 27.7. Sovereign CDS spreads, July 2007–July 2010. Source: Bloomberg. Finally, the last innings of the debt supercycle may arrive even before
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. Reinhart, Carmen M. (2010), “This time is different chartbook: Country histories on debt, default, and financial crises,” NBER working paper 15815. Reinhart, Carmen M.; and Kenneth S. Rogoff (2008), “This time is different: A panoramic view of eight centuries of financial crises,” NBER working paper 13882. Reinhart, Carmen M.; and
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Kenneth S. Rogoff (2009), This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Reinhart, Carmen M.; and Kenneth S. Rogoff (2010), “From financial crash to debt crisis,” NBER working paper 15795, forthcoming in American
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Robertson, Donald; and Stephen Wright (2006), “Dividends, total cash flow to shareholders, and predictive return regressions,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(1), 91–99. Rogoff, Kenneth S. (1980), “Essays on expectations and exchange rate volatility,” MIT doctoral dissertation. Rosenberg, Joshua V.; and Samuel Maurer (2008), “Signal or noise? Implications of the
Paper Promises
by Philip Coggan · 1 Dec 2011 · 376pp · 109,092 words
Austro-Hungarian Empire defaulted or rescheduled its debt five times. In their magisterial study of the subject, This Time Is Different,15 Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff describe a cycle of sovereign defaults, with peaks in the Napoleonic Wars, the 1820s through to the 1840s, the 1870s to the 1890s and the
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receiving less than usual from their overpriced holdings.’1 It is not just investors who are fooled. Policymakers can be too. As Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff put it, ‘Debt-fuelled booms all too often provide false affirmation of a government’s policies, a financial institution’s ability to make outsized profits
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follow prudent financial policies proved no more permanent than the willingness of most January revellers to follow their New Year’s resolutions. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff recount that sovereign default has occurred in a number of waves, starting with the Napoleonic Wars.1 In the 1840s cycle, nearly half the countries
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, The Perfect King: The Life of Edward III, the Father of the English Nation, London, 2006. 14 Macdonald, A Free Nation. 15 Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different, Princeton, 2009. 16 All quotes from Ron Chernow, Alexander Hamilton, London, 2004. 17 From ibid. 18 Homer and Sylla, Interest Rates
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Currency, New Haven, Conn., 2008. 7. BLOWING BUBBLES 1 Jeremy Grantham, ‘Night of the Living Fed’, GMO Quarterly Letter, October 2010. 2 Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different, Princeton, 2009. 3 Richard Duncan, The Dollar Crisis, rev. edn, New York, 2005; Richard Duncan, The Corruption of Capitalism, Hong Kong
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See Peter Morris, ‘Private Equity, Public Loss?’, Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation, July 2010. 10. NOT SO RISK-FREE 1 Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different, Princeton, 2009. 2 Alexander Sack, quoted in ‘Unfinished Business: Ten Years of Dropping the Debt’, Jubilee Debt Campaign, May 2008. 3
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Butler, ‘Ludwig von Mises – A Primer’, IEA Occasional Paper 143, 2010. 13 Richard Duncan, The Corruption of Capitalism, Hong Kong, 2009. 14 Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different, Princeton, 2009. 15 This policy might not have worked. Emerging markets might not have wanted to absorb so much foreign capital
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in Today’s Advanced Economies: Unnecessary, Undesirable and Unlikely’, September 2010. An IMF staff paper is not the official position of the fund itself. 18 Kenneth Rogoff, ‘The Euro at Mid-crisis’, Project syndicate website. 19 Inflation eventually results in a currency crisis or in a deep recession if the central bank
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Fractures Threaten the World Economy, Princeton, 2010. Reid, Michael, Forgotten Continent: The Battle for Latin America’s Soul, New Haven, Conn., 2007. Reinhart, Carmen and Rogoff, Kenneth, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton, 2009. Shiller, Robert J., Irrational Exuberance, Princeton, 2000. Skeel, David A. Jr, Debt’s Dominion
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Reichsbank Reichsmark Reid, Jim Reinhart, Carmen renminbi Rentenmark rentiers reparations Republican Party reserve currency retail price index retirement revaluation Revolutionary War Ridley, Matt Roberts, Russell Rogoff, Kenneth Romanovs Roosevelt, Franklin D. Rubin, Robert Rueff, Jacques Rumsfeld, Donald Russia Sack, Alexander St Augustine Saint-Simon, duc de Salamis (city) Santelli, Rick Sarkozy, Nicholas
House of Debt: How They (And You) Caused the Great Recession, and How We Can Prevent It From Happening Again
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, in particular—experienced the largest decline in growth during the recession. Another set of economic downturns we can examine are what economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff call the “big five” postwar banking crises in the developed world: Spain in 1977, Norway in 1987, Finland and Sweden in 1991, and Japan in
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would act as an automatic stabilizer: that is, payments on the bonds would immediately fall when the Spanish economy collapsed, providing some relief to Spaniards. Kenneth Rogoff, one of the world’s leading experts on financial crises, blames sovereign financial crises squarely on the inflexibility of debt contracts. As he notes, “If
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: Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain, April 2012. 16. Mervyn King, “Debt Deflation: Theory and Evidence,” European Economic Review 38 (1994): 419–45. 17. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, “Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison,” American Economic Review 98 (2008): 339–44. 18. Carmen Reinhart and
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Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009). 19. Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor, “When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business
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Equilibrium Approach,” Journal of Finance 47 (1992): 1343–66. 9. John Geanakoplos, “The Leverage Cycle,” in NBER Macroeconomic Annual 2009, vol. 24, ed. Daron Acemoglu, Kenneth Rogoff, and Michael Woodford (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2010), 1–65. 10. See National Fire Protection Association data, http://www.nfpa.org/research/fire-statistics
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(2003): 173–204. 8. The discussion below is inspired by John Geanakoplos, “The Leverage Cycle,” in NBER Macroeconomic Annual 2009, vol. 24, ed. Daron Acemoglu, Kenneth Rogoff, and Michael Woodford (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2010), 1–65. 9. This can be confirmed by noting that 100 × $125,000 = $12.5 million
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Athanasoulis, Robert Shiller, and Eric van Wincoop, “Macro Markets and Financial Security,” FRBNY Economic Policy Review, April 2009. Kenneth Rogoff has also advocated more equity-like instruments in the context of sovereign debt. See Kenneth Rogoff, “Global Imbalances without Tears,” Project Syndicate, March 1, 2011, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/global-imbalances-without
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; shared-responsibility mortgages in, 170–81; student-loan debt in, 182–83, 206n9 Roberts, Kristin, 134 “Robinson Crusoe” economy, 48 Rodriguez Zapatero, Jose Luis, 121 Rogoff, Kenneth, 7–8, 185 Romer, Christina, 137, 162 Rose, Jonathan, 144 Rothbard, Murray N., 143 Rothstein, Jesse, 69 safe assets, 98–101, 115, 170, 183–84
The Bankers' New Clothes: What's Wrong With Banking and What to Do About It
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much larger and costlier than other types of recessions. On the slow recovery from the financial crisis in the United States, see Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, “Sorry, U.S. Recoveries Really Aren’t Different,” Bloomberg, October 15, 2012, and Martin Wolf, “A Slow Convalescence under Obama,” Financial Times, October 24, 2012
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. Rajan, Uday, Amit Seru, and Vikrant Vig. 2010. “The Failure of Models to Predict Models.” Working paper. University of Chicago, Chicago. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth Rogoff. 2009. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. ———. 2010. “Growth in a Time of Debt.” American Economic Review
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, 183–84; sovereign debt in, 177, 184, 323n35; stress tests and, 186–87 Robinson, James, 319n10 Rochet, Jean-Charles, 313n67 ROE. See return on equity Rogoff, Kenneth, 65, 239n1, 244n3, 249n15, 258n22, 258n24, 276n6, 295n16, 296n26, 297n38, 322n34, 323n37, 331n19 Rohatyn, Felix, 326n8 Rome, ancient, default in, 36, 244n4 Romer, Paul M
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