Kessler Syndrome

The End of Astronauts: Why Robots Are the Future of Exploration
by Donald Goldsmith and Martin Rees
Published 18 Apr 2022

Adam Mann, “Starlink: SpaceX’s Satellite Internet Project,” Space.com, May 28, 2021, https://www.space.com/spacex-starlink-satellites.html. 15. Christian Davenport, “Thousands More Satellites Could Soon Be Launched into Space. Can the Federal Government Keep Up?,” Washington Post, July 23, 2020. 16. Louis de Gouyon Matignon, “The Kessler Syndrome,” Space Legal Issues, March 27, 2019, https://www.spacelegalissues.com/space-law-the-kessler-syndrome/. 17. L. Lebreton et al., “Evidence That the Great Pacific Garbage Patch is Rapidly Accumulating Plastic,” Nature Scientific Reports 8, no. 4666 (2018). Chapter 4: The Moon 1. For a history of lunar orbiters, see “The Lunar Orbiter Program,” Lunar and Planetary Institute, accessed August 15, 2021, https://www.lpi.usra.edu/lunar/missions/orbiter/. 2.

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In 2009, a communications satellite’s collision with a defunct Russian satellite produced almost 2,000 pieces of debris at least 4 inches across, plus thousands of smaller pieces. Most of this litter will orbit the Earth for years on end.15 The growing satellite swarm threatens to generate a “Kessler effect,” named after a NASA expert in space detritus, David Kessler, who predicted a self-reinforcing cascade when the remnants of collisions themselves collide to generate still more debris.16 The Kessler effect would mimic the current situation of seaborne waste, whose interactions follow a fractal process that produces ever-smaller particles of metal and plastic. Although three-quarters of the mass of oceanic detritus consists of pieces more than two inches across (and thus potentially recoverable, albeit with a mammoth effort), the remaining 25 percent consists of microplastics less than 1 / 25 of an inch in size, which are almost impossible to remove from the ocean.17 These tiny particles account for almost 95 percent of the estimated trillions of pieces of trash floating within the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, located in the North Pacific between North America and Japan.

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Although three-quarters of the mass of oceanic detritus consists of pieces more than two inches across (and thus potentially recoverable, albeit with a mammoth effort), the remaining 25 percent consists of microplastics less than 1 / 25 of an inch in size, which are almost impossible to remove from the ocean.17 These tiny particles account for almost 95 percent of the estimated trillions of pieces of trash floating within the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, located in the North Pacific between North America and Japan. The Kessler effect could make near-Earth orbit difficult or impossible to utilize during the decades before the development of a satisfactory cleanup technique. The problem, which affects both astronauts and automated satellites, reminds us that human advances often carry unanticipated consequences. We would do well to bear this rule in mind as we examine the prospects for astronaut journeys far beyond their now-familiar near-Earth environment.

The New Gold Rush: The Riches of Space Beckon!
by Joseph N. Pelton
Published 5 Nov 2016

Solar flares can cause genetic damage and elevate the incidence of cancer. Each year the number of derelict spacecraft and upper stage launchers left circling our planet continues to rise. Space debris continues to accumulate, with some 23,000 space objects larger than a baseball being tracked. Dr. Donald Kessler, noted for the “Kessler Syndrome” that projects a runaway cascade of space junk , has forecasted a major space collision every 10 years. This projection is based on there not being any new launches or new orbital debris. Estimates prepared by the European Space Agency for a conference on space debris suggests that Kessler estimate is too cautious.

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The French law that puts enforcement power behind the requirement for all launched satellites to be de-orbited 25 years after end of life is currently one of the most important measures seeking to enforce debris mitigation. Plans by OneWeb to deploy some 800 low Earth orbit satellites and rumors that SpaceX might deploy a 4000 low Earth orbit constellation have occasioned even greater concern recently that the Kessler Syndrome could materialize sooner rather than later . You might ask at this point, well what should be done? Although the agenda is far from clear, action is clearly needed. We should cooperate together, especially among the space agencies of spacefaring nations, to achieve a truly effective planetary defense program against comets, asteroids, solar storms, and even man-made threats such as orbital debris.

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The movie Gravity starring George Clooney and Sandra Bullock was in many ways science fiction, but in terms of space debris the objects would move with even greater velocity and destructive force should they indeed make a direct hit. Although there is a great deal of space out there, space scientist Donald Kessler, famous for predicting the Kessler Syndrome, has suggested that every 10 years—or less—we will have a major space collision. Such an event will unfortunately generate perhaps 2000 new debris elements and the cascading debris problem [5]. The race is on, the race to launch more and more things such as space habitats and mega-low Earth orbit constellations with hundreds if not thousands of satellites in them.

Black Code: Inside the Battle for Cyberspace
by Ronald J. Deibert
Published 13 May 2013

NASA’S Earth observation unit tracks as many as 8,000 space debris objects of ten centimetres or more that pose risks to operational satellites. (There are many smaller objects that present a hazard as well.) The Kessler Syndrome, put forward by NASA scientist Donald Kessler in 1976, theorizes that there will come a time when such debris clouds will make near-Earth orbital space unusable. Although undersea fibre-optic cables provide the bulk of transit for global communications, they cannot sustain the entire load. A scenario such as the Kessler Syndrome, were it to come true, would end global cyberspace as we know it. Scientists have very few realistic solutions for cleaning up space debris.

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See also Andrew Blum, Tubes: A Journey to the Center of the Internet (New York: HarperCollins, 2012). 14 a defunct and wayward Russian satellite: The 2009 satellite collision is detailed in “Satellite Collision Leaves Significant Debris Clouds,” Orbital Debris Quarterly News 13, no.2 (2009). The Kessler Syndrome is discussed in detail in Burton G. Cour-Palais and Donald J. Kessler, “Collision Frequency of Artificial Satellites: The Creation of a Debris Belt,” Journal of Geophysical Research 83 (1978): 2637–2646. See also Daniel H. Deudney, “High Impacts: Asteroidal Utilization, Collision Avoidance, and the Outer Space Regime,” in ed.

Wasteland: The Dirty Truth About What We Throw Away, Where It Goes, and Why It Matters
by Oliver Franklin-Wallis
Published 21 Jun 2023

There’s so much waste in orbit – detritus from old rocket launches, castoffs from the International Space Station, even one of Elon Musk’s Teslas – that the European Space Agency is working on plans for an orbital clean up mission, in case the cloud of trash hurtling around the planet puts an explosive end to future space missions. This hypothetical event, known as Kessler syndrome, predicts that unless we act soon, human spaceflight will be grounded by what is, in effect, space littering.5 At this point it will not surprise you to learn that when the last Apollo astronauts lifted off from the surface of the moon, they left their trash behind. Human beings have always produced waste, but never before at such scale.

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See Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) Electronics Recyclers International, Inc (ERI) 247–54 Elizabeth I, Queen 148 Ellen MacArthur Foundation 117, 135 Ellington sanitary landfill 28–41, 55, 62, 94 Empson, William 335 endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) 69, 241–3 energy-from-waste (EfW) plants 24, 25, 39, 93–110 Environment Agency 37, 82, 333 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), US 33, 54, 71, 226, 228, 241, 242, 243, 280–1, 282, 284–5, 287, 291, 293; Superfund National Priorities list 280–1 Environmental Working Group (EWG) 216 Eunomia 71 European Environmental Bureau (EEB) 229 European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) 228 European Space Agency (ESA) 3, 33 European Union (EU) 66, 79, 87, 89, 97, 107, 109, 187–8, 209, 214, 260; REACH 229 Eurystheus 226 Everest, Mount 3, 17, 24–5, 240 Evrnu 135 Exporting Harm 261–2 exporting waste 6, 74–92; Basel Convention and 90–1; China and 10–11, 75–92, 261–2, 270–1, 319; clothing 112–41; crime and 81–4; decline of 90–1; ‘dumping’ term and 85–6; Fukutomi Recycling 87–92; history of 75–6, 88–91; Operation National Sword bans 11, 78–9, 84–6, 87, 88, 90, 330; recycling industry and 76–80, 84–92; shipping/journey of 86–92; South East Asia 79–81, 84–5, 90, 91; toxic colonialism 6, 85–6 Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) 131, 137, 330–1 Fabbri, Paolo 314 faeces: cesspits 27, 146–7, 148, 149, 167; cholera and 9, 48, 145–57, 161, 168; nightsoil 147; sanitation, invention of modern 48–50, 145–69, 200, 230, 286; sewers 4, 12, 27, 47, 49, 50, 145, 148–9, 152–69, 196, 225, 235; toilet 5, 68, 74, 98, 146, 147–9, 156, 157, 160, 168, 169, 200–1, 214–15, 268 Faraday, Michael 149 FareShare 181, 182 fashion industry 112, 123, 125, 131, 135; deadstock 124–6, 254–5; fast-fashion 116–18, 120–2, 126, 128, 131, 133–41, 258, 326 fatbergs 162 Feeding America 181 fermentation 198 fertilisers 5, 9, 47, 147, 148, 160, 196, 197, 201, 206, 212, 214, 215, 216, 227 fibre (paper and card) 42–6 filter purge 67 fish die-offs 223 Fisher, Lee 165 Fitzgerald, Carolyn 29 Five Sisters shale oil waste bings, West Lothian 277 flashover 103–4 Flushing Meadows, Queens 30 flushing water closet 147 fly ash 105–6 fly-tipping 82 food banks 172, 179–82, 183 food loss 174 Food Not Bombs 180 food poverty 175, 180–1 food-sharing apps 192, 193 food waste 6n, 13, 36, 50, 96, 170–93, 194–216; amounts of 173, 174–5; anaerobic digesters 160, 162, 205, 209, 212–14, 235; buy what you always eat 191–2; composting see compost; food banks 179–82; food marketing and 178; food loss and 174; food-sharing apps and 193; freegan movement 170–3, 176–7; gleaning 182–93; greenhouse gases and 173–4; hierarchy for disposing of 214; land use and 175; panic buying and 192; Paris climate agreement (2015) and 179; plastic packaging and 178–9; production process and 174; supermarket cosmetic standards and 187–8; supermarket zero-waste targets and 179; water usage and 175–6 Ford, Henry 256 Frederick, Christine: Selling Mrs Consumer 255 freegan movement 170–3, 176–7, 180 Fresno, California 31, 31n, 247–8 Fryer, Alfred 95 Fukutomi Recycling 87–92 furans 101, 216 Ganga jal 224 Ganges, India 4, 220, 221, 224–5, 229–40, 244–5 Garbage Project 35 garbology 35–6 GEEP 254 Gehenna, valley of 103 GEM 249 General Electric 257 General Motors 257 geological disposal 297, 303, 311–12, 316 Geological Disposal Facility (GDF) 303, 311, 312, 316 Ghazipur landfill, New Delhi 17–29, 34, 40, 97, 102 ghost towns 277–8 Gillespie, Dina 158–9 glass 5, 47, 52, 55, 58, 63, 73 gleaning 182–93 Glencore 249 Global South 4, 12, 18, 40, 71–2, 80, 90, 91–2, 132–3, 138, 174, 187, 200–1, 267, 272 Global Tailings Portal 275 Global Treaty on Plastic Pollution 331 Gold King Mine, Colorado 291 Gonen, Ron: The Waste-Free World 121 ‘Good Samaritan’ laws 181 Great Exhibition (1851) 148 Great Pacific Garbage Patch 3 Great Smog (1952) 31 Great Stink (1858) 151 Green Dot 59 greenhouse gas emissions 6, 33, 52, 104, 173–4, 321 Green Recycling 1–3, 5, 7, 8, 11, 14, 42, 330, 335 Greenpeace 65, 105 greenwashing 72, 134, 140, 208, 209, 211, 323, 324, 330 green waste 204, 206 Greyparrot 324 Groceries Code Adjudicator 188 Gross National Trash 285–6 Guangdong, China 76, 87–8 Guiyu, China 77, 261–2 gulls 32, 38, 161, 300–1 H&M 120, 121 Haiti 91, 105, 214 Hanlon, Chris 55–6 Haussmann, George-Eugène 154 Hazam, Abdul 232–3 hazardous waste 34, 56–7, 66, 85, 104, 106, 162, 232, 241, 249, 252, 264, 283, 284–5, 294–318, 333; geological disposal 297, 303, 311–12, 316; nuclear waste 294–318 haze 68–9 HDPE 26, 56, 57–8, 62, 70, 71, 80, 89, 208, 210, 330 Healthcare Environment Services 99 Heracles 226 Hindus 21, 27, 220, 221–2, 223, 224, 232, 244, 245; Hindutva nationalism 27, 244 historic landfills 36–41, 332–4 Hitachi Zosen Inova 103 Hodges, James 203 Homeland Security, US 253–4 House of Commons 151, 209 House of Lords 209 household waste 6, 8, 9, 10, 18–19, 31, 34, 39, 42–3, 44, 69–70, 89, 96–7, 106–8, 284–6, 331 Howells, James 38 Hugo, Victor: Les Misérables 145 Human Interference Task Force 313 humanure 200 hydrogen sulphide 22, 33 iFixit 254, 260, 265, 266 immigration 27, 50, 126, 152, 267 India 11, 17–28, 32, 83, 85, 97, 113, 145, 147, 150, 169, 174, 175, 214, 220–1, 222, 223–5, 230, 234, 237, 245, 270, 288 indigenous peoples 227, 269n, 277–93 Industrial Revolution 24, 47, 55, 145 industrial waste 34, 54, 55, 89, 224, 225–6, 238, 239, 273–93, 327; Aberfan disaster (1966) 277; agriculture industry 286; amounts of 284–6; ‘chat’ 279–84, 286, 287–8, 289, 290, 291–2, 293; Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (Superfund) 280–1; data on 284–5; definition of 284–6; ghost towns 277–8; ‘Gross National Trash’ 285–6; indigenous peoples and 277–93; lead poisoning 278–80, 281, 286–7; mining waste 273–93; reshapes landscapes 276–7; solid mine waste heaps/slag heaps 276–7; Tar Creek Superfund site 277–93 inequality, waste 283–4 Ingels, Bjarke 108 International Resin Identification Code 59 International Solid Waste Association 19n, 24 intrinsic viscosity (IV) 56 iPhone 5, 248–9, 258–60 Iraqi, Asad 234–5 Itai-itai disease 239 ITV News 254 Jacobs, Charmaine 183 Japan 7, 82, 97, 107, 202, 239, 303, 304–5, 309, 310, 321, 328, 328n Jennings, George 148 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, NASA 33 JFK airport, New York 30 Jim, Rebecca 286–7 John Deere 37, 261 Johnson, Bea: Zero Waste Home 321 Joint Unit for Waste Crime (JUWC) 82–3 Journal of Consumer Psychology 325 Journal of Semiotics 313 Kanpur, India 229–46 Kantamanto market, Ghana 122–41, 328 Kaolin mine, Bavaria 277 kayayei (‘she who carries the burden’) 126, 133–4, 137 Keep America Beautiful 62–3, 108, 323 Keep Britain Tidy 63 Kemsley, Kent 42–5 Kessler syndrome 3–4 Khian Sea (‘Ash Boat’) 105 King Minos’s palace, Knossos, Crete 147–8 King’s Cross 75 King, Summer 278, 279–80, 281–3, 289, 290–2, 293 kites 17, 32 Kotyk, Oleksii 113–20, 324–5 Kpone landfill, Accra 129, 130 Kumbh Mela 220 labels, recycling 51, 58, 59–60, 61, 70, 72–3 La Guardia airport, New York 30 landfills 17–41, 45, 52, 55, 56, 61, 62, 72, 79, 82, 94, 96–7, 99, 106, 109, 113, 121, 129–30, 131, 133, 137, 138, 139, 179, 181, 191, 195, 196n, 198, 212, 213, 236, 243, 248, 249, 255, 267, 271, 292, 295, 302; amounts of waste sent to 19–20; cells, engineered 34; ‘Clean India’ campaign and 33; danger of 22, 38–9; decline of UK 39; Ellington sanitary landfill 28–41, 55, 62, 94; fires 23–4; Garbage Project and 35–6; Ghazipur 17–29, 34, 40, 97, 102; historic 36–41, 332–4; history of 8, 20–1, 30–1; leachate 6, 22, 25–6, 33, 34–5, 41, 100, 130; leaks 34, 36, 41; methane emissions 33; pests 32; plastics and 22, 26–7, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42; power generation 35; sanitary landfill 19n, 28–41, 55, 62, 94; sealed 6–7, 35, 302, 318; Seghill 40–1; smell of 22; tax 39; waste pickers 18, 20–8 ‘landscape of thorns’ 314 land use 175 Langøya 105–6 Last Beach Cleanup, The 71 leachate 6, 22, 25–6, 33, 34–5, 41, 100, 130 LEAD Agency 286–7 lead poisoning 77, 262, 277–80 Leather Industry Welfare Association 234 Lebow, Victor: Journal of Retailing 256 Liboiron, Max 227–8 Life magazine 10, 54 light bulb cartel 257–8 ‘litter’ 63 LLDPE 80 London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine 155–6 London 30; Binliners and 93, 95; biogas and 213; burning waste and 96, 102, 107–8; EfW plants 102; exporting waste from 75, 332; Save Scrap for Victory and 60–1; sewage/cholera 145–69, 215–16, 225; waste pickers/rag and bone men 9, 47–8 London, Bernard 256 Loos-en-Gohelle, France 276–7 Los Angeles 79, 87, 96, 327 Love Canal incident 280 Low Level Waste Depository, Drigg 302 LS Nikko 253 Lucozade 61, 62 lysosomes 195–6 MacBride, Samantha 323 mafia 7–8, 81–3, 82n Magh Mela 232 magic mushrooms 176–7 Magnox nuclear power stations 301, 304 Makar Sankranti 232 Makola market, Accra 122 Makower, Joel 285 Malaysia 5, 74, 79–81, 84–5, 90, 92, 118 Manhattan, New York 30–1, 50 Manhattan Project 298 Mariana, Brazil 275 Mariana Trench 55 marketing industry 10 Marshall Islands, Runit Dome 296 Marx, Karl: Capital 196, 325 masterbatch 66–7, 78 Materials Recovery Facility (MRF) 1–3, 8, 42, 50, 51, 84, 95 Maya 8, 46 Mayak disaster (1957) 310 Mayhew, Henry: London Labour and the London Poor 47–8, 147 McDonald’s 63 McTighe, Jamie 29, 32, 35, 36–8, 39–41, 42 medical waste 98–9 Melosi, Martin 96 mercury 34, 101, 228, 228n, 240, 251, 252, 276, 291 Merry, Thomas 94–5 Mesopotamia 197 metal waste.

When the Heavens Went on Sale: The Misfits and Geniuses Racing to Put Space Within Reach
by Ashlee Vance
Published 8 May 2023

Swarm received a stern talking-to and a $900,000 fine from the Federal Communications Commission—and then kept right on launching satellites.* People, of course, fear that all these satellites could bash into each other in orbit, which would be catastrophic for our modern way of life. There’s a phenomenon known as the Kessler syndrome that predicts that low Earth orbit could turn into an absolute shitshow as the result of a relatively small number of collisions. One satellite would bash into another at high speed, and the crash would result in thousands of pieces of debris. Each piece would then morph into a high-speed missile that could collide with other satellites and create a cascading effect.

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See Schingler, Jessy Kate (née Cowan-Sharp) Crawford, James, 122 Cube of Learning (Beck; sculpture), 149 CubeSat, 92, 93–94 Cupid, 438 Cyclone-4 rocket, 445 Dangerous Sports Club, 54 DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), 37–39, 116, 195–196, 199, 202, 285, 369–370, 374–375 deep-space exploration, 490 Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), 37–39, 116, 195–196, 199, 202, 285, 369–370, 374–375 Dell, Michael, 410n Delphin engine, 370 Delta Clipper, 47 differential drag, 32, 109 DirectTV, 443n DISCOVERER, 116 diversity, lack of, 287, 288 D’Mello, Shaun, 215, 219, 231 Dnipropetrovsk (Dnipro), 438–443, 444, 447–448, 450 Dotcom, Kim, 138 Doves (satellites), 27, 31–32, 96, 103–106, 109–110, 227, 396 Dragon capsule, 327 EchoStar, 443n Edwards Air Force Base, 173, 412 Electron rocket concept for, 139, 209 construction of, 140–141 first launch and, 226–227 flight frequency of, 16 kick stage for, 230–231 launch challenges and, 214–218, 220–221 Markusic and, 424 Planet Labs and, 107 reusability and, 490 schedule and, 224 second launch and, 227–228 size comparison of, 395 success of, 337–338, 365, 369 third launch of, 238–241 work on, 209–213 Elizabeth II, Queen, 84 Energia rocket, 437 English, Christa, 410, 411, 417, 419, 424, 465 EOS Data Analytics, 433 Escapia, 59, 273 European Space Agency, 83 Eveleth, Decker, 112–115, 119 expected casualty analysis, 345 Expedia, 273 FAA, 330–331, 332, 336, 343, 345 Falcon 1, 2–13, 16, 20, 38, 40, 56, 188, 208, 397, 415, 419, 426 Falcon 9, 12, 141, 395, 428, 490 Farrant, Ben, 289–290, 370, 391 Fay, Michael, 190–192, 193, 203, 216–217 Federal Communications Commission, 131 Ferraro, Matthew, 101 Firefly Aerospace Astra and, 493 delays and, 466–467 first launch and, 479 founding of, 404–405 funding and, 455, 464–465, 470–471, 475 goals of, 402, 403–404 increase rocket size and, 455 launch license denial and, 472, 485 Polyakov and, 434–436, 457–458 Polyakov’s ouster and, 484–486 setbacks for, 458–459 SpaceX and, 403 success of, 486 in Ukraine, 448–450 value of, 476 Firefly Farm, 466 Firefly Space Systems advantages for, 208 bankruptcy of, 429, 433–434 founding of, 423–427 funding and, 428–430 goals of, 207, 427 launch vehicles of, 395 Martin and, 356 Polyakov and, 433–434 Rocket Lab and, 214, 230 US government agreement and, 456 Vandenberg Air Force Base and, 460–464 Fisher & Paykel, 154–157, 159, 161, 163, 165 Five Eyes intelligence-sharing group, 222 Flanagan, Matthew, 339, 356–362, 391 Fleet Space Technologies, 238–239 Fleming, Shane, 218 flight termination systems, 225, 227, 286, 344–345 Flirt, 438 4D, 274–275, 489 FuckedCompany.com, 274 Gamma, 426 Garcia, Ian, 290, 329 Garver, Lori, 67 Gates, Bill, 387, 388 Gemini mission, 42 Gentile, Bryson, 311–314, 317, 379 geolocation data, 125–126 Gies, Bill, 287–288, 338–340, 391 Gillies, Daniel, 234n Gillmore, Chester, 108 Goddard, Robert, 145 Google Ames Research Center and, 58, 61, 64–65 Google Earth, 120 Google Maps, 120 Google Mars, 64, 276 Google Moon, 64–65, 276 PhoneSat project and, 93 Skybox Imaging and, 111n Gorbachev, Mikhail, 47n GPS chips, 303 Grassley, Chuck, 68 Great Mercury Island, 190–191, 202–203 Griffin, Michael, 43, 54, 59 Guiana Space Center, 397 hacker houses, 73 Halley’s Comet, 153–154 Hawking, Stephen, 86 HitDynamics, 438 Hofmann, Chris, 338–339, 346, 350, 379, 382, 391 Holicity, 387 HomeAway, 273 Hopkins, Anthony, 148 Houghton, Samuel, 199–201 Howard, Ben, 101, 103, 106, 488 Hubble Space Telescope, 43 Humanity Star, 227–228 Hundley, Lucas, 281–282 Hydra, 447 hydrogen peroxide, 159–161 Hyperloop, 356 ICBM factory in Dnipro, 440, 444 image analysts, 118–119 imaging satellites, 98–99 India Pakistan and, 123–124 space program in, 27–28 Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), 27, 29–30 Industrial Research Limited (IRL), 169–171, 179, 181, 184 Industrial Revolution, 145 Ingels, Bjarke, 312 Instant Eyes project, 195–196, 199–201 International Astronautical Congress, 49, 86 International Space Station (ISS), 13, 105, 107, 436 International Space University, 66, 86–87 International Talk like a Pirate Day, 79 International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), 66, 233–234 internet service, satellites and, 14, 18, 128–130, 487–488 Intimidator 5, 91 ion thrusters, 450 Iridium, 129, 388 Israel Defense Forces, 119 ITAR (International Traffic in Arms Regulations), 66 jade, 149 James, Deborah Lee, 475 James Webb Space Telescope, 327 Jazayeri, Mike, 365n Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), 43, 85, 174–175 Jobs, Steve, 63 Jornales, Rose, 286–287, 391 Joyce, Steven, 221, 223 Judson, Mike, 290–291, 307, 317, 318, 324 Jurvetson, Steve, 91, 102, 104n, 105, 488 Keeter, Milton, 330–331, 332, 338–340, 343–346, 391 Kelly, Isaac, 326, 338–342, 391 Kemp, Chris Ames Research Center and, 59–61, 276 Astra going public and, 385, 387–388, 390–391 Beck and, 365–366 Brockert and, 292 budget issues and, 326 Burning Man and, 253–254 company name and, 294–295 “Dawn of Space” party and, 295–296 engine tests and, 282–283, 307 financial issues and, 370–372, 374, 378, 381–382 funding and, 296–297, 365, 366, 383 goals of, 309–310, 384 Google and, 64–65 on himself, 267–277 Jessy Kate and, 324–325 Judson and, 291n launch attempts and, 316, 361, 376, 380, 382–383, 393 launch delays and, 334 launch failures and, 336, 337, 347, 349, 350–354, 364 launch locations and, 280, 304 launch preparations and, 331–333 life advice from, 308 living arrangements of, 102n loss of driver’s license and, 297–299 Lyon and, 390 Marshall and, 85 Martin and, 356, 357–358 media attention and, 317 moving rocket and, 305, 306 Open Lunar Foundation and, 488 OpenStack and, 250–253 Polyakov and, 468–469 Rainbow Mansion and, 72–73 recent work of, 489, 492–493 Rocket Lab and, 338 security and, 301 simplicity of design and, 279 Skyhawk space and, 310–314, 367–369 status meetings and, 281 Stealth Space Company and, 260–263, 265 Thompson and, 348–349 transparency of, 394 Ventions LLC and, 250, 257–258 Whitesides and, 423 Kennedy, Fred, 13, 37–38 Kennedy Space Center, 174 Kessler syndrome, 131 Key, John, 220, 221, 222, 223 Khosla Ventures, 206–207, 209, 214 Khrushchev, Nikita, 440 King, P. J., 423–424 Klupar, Pete, 51, 88–89 Kodiak Island, 280, 303, 304, 319–322, 335, 340, 345, 377 Kodiak Narrow Cape Lodge, 323–324, 326, 328 Kwajalein Atoll, 2–3, 6–7, 20, 39, 320, 383, 397, 415 LADEE (Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer), 57 “Launch Challenge,” 369–370, 374–375 launch complexes, rugged nature of, 28 launch locations.

On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything
by Nate Silver
Published 12 Aug 2024

“Sometimes you say things that are not fully grounded in reality, and yet they feel true.” He rejects the literalness of the AI debate, the urge to quantify p(doom) like it’s some shortstop’s on-base percentage in Moneyball. Instead, he thinks in metaphors. On his Substack, roon outlined eight AI scenarios with exotic names like “Balrog Awakened” and “Ultra Kessler Syndrome.” The latter—coined after an astronomical phenomenon postulated by NASA’s Donald Kessler wherein space debris collides in a continuous chain reaction that prevents humanity from escaping Earth’s orbit—refers to a scenario wherein AI traps us in contemporary human values. At some point, this scenario imagines—maybe with GPT-7 or GPT-8—we’ll achieve AGI and the Machine Gods will become all-powerful.