by John Cassidy · 12 May 2025 · 774pp · 238,244 words
after Joseph Schumpeter, an eminent Austrian economist who taught at Harvard, featured it prominently in a 1939 book about business cycles. Schumpeter coined the term Kondratiev cycle,60 which is often converted to Kondratiev wave. Fascination with Kondratiev’s theory persisted even as some of Schumpeter’s colleagues in US academia echoed
by Vaclav Smil · 23 Sep 2019
of the recurrence of economic cycles tied to technical inventions in particular (Marchetti 1986a; Vasko et al. 1990; Allianz 2010; Bernard et al. 2013). Post-Kondratiev cycles had upswings between 1939 and 1974 (the fourth cycle), and 1984 and 2008 (the fifth, electronic cycle) and they were dominated by computing, information and
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, radar, and nuclear energy. Other waves have been identified—ranging from Kitchin cycles of 3–5 years to Kuznets cycles (average 15–25 years)—but Kondratiev cycles (with average duration of 40–60 years, often reduced to 55–56 years) have been both the most often invoked and the most frequently doubted
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years but in the absence of any strong evidence for greater regularity and the lack of any unifying explanation, it is best not to elevate Kondratiev cycles to predictable mirrors of reality. Trends of GDP growth and energy consumption and trends in the energy intensity of economies (J/$) have been analyzed on
by Peter Oppenheimer · 3 May 2020 · 333pp · 76,990 words
duration of 7–11 years, whereas the Kuznets cycle for predicting incomes (Simon Kuznets, 1901–1985) has a duration of 15–25 years and the Kondratiev cycle (Nikolai Kondratiev, 1892–1938) has a duration of 50–60 years, driven by major technological innovations. There are, clearly, problems with all of them and
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are so many different descriptions of cycles points to the fact that there are many different drivers. Several of them, such as the very long Kondratiev cycle, are difficult to test statistically given the existence of so few observations. Although the traditional focus on cycles has related mainly to the economy, the
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160 Juglar cycle 3 K Kahneman, D. 22–23 Kennedy Slide bear market 102 Keynes, J.M. 22 Kindleberger, C.P. 22 Kitchin cycle 3 Kondratiev cycle 3 Kuznets cycle 3 L labour share of GDP 185, 238–239 land and property bubble, Japan 114, 148–149, 155–156, 158, 160–161
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189–190, 221–241 and disruption in 1980s 12–15 dominance 231–233 and growth 227–231 historical parallels 222–227 industrial revolution 224–226 Kondratiev cycle 3 largest companies 234–237 market value 234, 235–238 opportunities 230–231 personal computers 12–13, 155 printing press 223–224 railway bubbles 148
by Fred Pearce · 28 May 2012 · 379pp · 114,807 words
numerous interrelationships.” Phew. Payne’s presentations, meanwhile, often include a scary graph showing something called the Kondratiev Cycle, after Nikolai Kondratiev, the Russian economist who invented it. I’m not clear how the Elliott Wave and the Kondratiev Cycle relate, if at all. But her graph shows U.S. commodity prices since 1800, rising
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its Understanding Land Investment Deals in Africa, http://media.oaklandinstitute.org (2011). See also http://www.emvest.com and https://www.emergentasset.com. Payne’s Kondratiev cycles are described in “African Land Fund: Breaking New Ground in Africa,” a presentation she gave on December 3, 2009. See also the company’s website
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, Mikhail, 97 Khon Kaen Sugar, 193 Kidman Holdings, viii, 158 Kikuyu, 216 kob, white-eared, 14, 15, 47, 49 Koh Kong, Cambodia, 192–93, 195 Kondratiev Cycle, 95 Kouwenhoven, Guus van, 67–68 Kruger National Park, South Africa, 227, 231 Kurek, Anildo, 124, 126 Kuwait, 38, 240 Kyoto Protocol, 266 Laikipia, Kenya
by John Lanchester · 5 Oct 2014 · 261pp · 86,905 words
one. If we accept this line of arguing, then the number 8 spot on the list belongs to “UK, Windsor, $500 million.” Just saying.50 Kondratiev cycle Named after Nikolai Kondratiev (1892–1938), this cycle is a long slow wavelike pattern in economics, in which a period of expansion is followed by
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of forty to sixty years. The industrial revolution and the arrival and impact of the railways are examples of phenomena that to some look like Kondratiev cycles. There’s no real proof of the existence of these waves, and most economists don’t believe in them, but they have their fans. The
by Robert Skidelsky · 13 Nov 2018
life, the waves of innovation and destruction, the rise and fall of systems of political economy. The most famous economic theory of cycles is the Kondratiev cycle, a long wave of forty or fifty years, which starts with a cluster of new technologies and exhausts itself when they have been used up
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Development Bank), 354 Kiel Canal, 89 Kindleberger, Charles, 58–9 King, Martin Luther, 149 King, Mervyn, 53, 187, 254, 311, 331 Knapp, Georg Friedrich, 25 Kondratiev cycle, 14, 350 Konrad Zweig, 157 Kornai, Janos, 357 Krugman, Paul, 106, 117, 119, 225, 255*, 370, 378 Kuroda, Haruhiko, 271 Kuznets, Simon, 302 labour market