Law of Accelerating Returns

The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology

by Ray Kurzweil  · 14 Jul 2005  · 761pp  · 231,902 words

Slowness of Social Institutions. The Criticism from Theism 338 The Criticism from Holism 341 Epilogue344 How Singular? Human Centrality. Resources and Contact Information346 Appendix: The Law of Accelerating Returns Revisited348 Notes352 Index [omitted]434 Acknowledgements I 'd like to express my deep appreciation to my mother, Hannah, and my father, Fredric, for supporting

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the apparent acceleration of all information-related technologies and sought to refine the mathematical models underlying these observations. I developed a theory I call the law of accelerating returns, which explains why technology and evolutionary processes in general progress in an exponential fashion.5In The Age of Spiritual Machines (ASM), which I wrote

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own life as a "singularitarian."1 I can understand why many observers do not readily embrace the obvious implications of what I have called the law of accelerating returns (the inherent acceleration of the rate of evolution, with technological evolution as a continuation of biological evolution), After all, it took me forty years

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such as your romantic partner) will be able to select a different body for you than you might select for yourself (and vice versa). ·The law of accelerating returns will continue until nonbiological intelligence comes dose to "saturating" the matter and energy in our vicinity of the universe with our human-machine intelligence. By

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ll die of boredom. GEORGE 2048: Oh, that could never happen. I will make sure of it. CHAPTER TWO A Theory of Technological Evolution The Law of Accelerating Returns The further backward you look, the further forward you can see. —WINSTON CHURCHILL Two billion years ago, our ancestors were microbes; a half-billion years

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is wrong, it is profoundly wrong. —JOHN SMART1 T he ongoing acceleration of technology is the implication and inevitable result of what I call the law of accelerating returns, which describes the acceleration of the pace of and the exponential growth of the products of an evolutionary process. These products include, in particular, information

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their acceleration extends substantially beyond the predictions made by what has become known as Moore's Law. The Singularity is the inexorable result of the law of accelerating returns, so it is important that we examine the nature of this evolutionary process. The Nature of Order. The previous chapter featured several graphs demonstrating

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continue to accelerate when the technology itself takes full control of its own progression in Epoch Five.11 We can summarize the principles of the law of accelerating returns as follows: ·Evolution applies positive feedback: the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage.

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than is represented by all of the interneuronal connections and neurotransmitter concentration patterns in a fully formed human brain. Consider how the principles of the law of accelerating returns apply to the epochs we discussed in the first chapter. The combination of amino acids into proteins and of nucleic acids into strings of

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telescopes. —E. W. DIJKSTRA Before considering further the implications of the Singularity, let's examine the wide range of technologies that are subject to the law of accelerating returns. The exponential trend that has gained the greatest public recognition has become known as Moore's Law. In the mid-1970s, Gordon Moore, a leading

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longer feasible. But the growth of computation supersedes any of its underlying paradigms and is for present purposes an ongoing exponential. In accordance with the law of accelerating returns, paradigm shift (also called innovation) turns the S-curve of any specific paradigm into a continuing exponential. A new paradigm, such as three-dimensional

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perform without thinking about them. —ALFRED NORTH WHITEHEAD, 191142 Things are more like they are now than they ever were before. —DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER The law of accelerating returns applies to all of technology, indeed to any evolutionary process. It can be charted with remarkable precision in information-based technologies because we have well

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per dollar, or calculations per second per gram) to measure them. There are a great many examples of the exponential growth A implied by the law of accelerating returns, in areas as varied as electronics of all kinds, DNA sequencing, communications, brain scanning, brain reverse engineering, the size and scope of human knowledge,

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have/have not issue doesn't get enough attention. There's more we can do. RAY: Indeed, but the overriding, impersonal forces of the law of accelerating returns are nonetheless moving in the right direction. Consider that technology in a particular area starts out unaffordable and not working very well. Then it becomes

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but I'm serious about this statement. Until I return to a further explanation, however, do read the first sentence of this paragraph carefully.) The law of accelerating returns is fundamentally an economic theory. Contemporary economic theory and policy are based on outdated models that emphasize energy costs, commodity prices, and capital investment in

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are driving the economy. It's the economic imperative of a competitive marketplace that is the primary force driving technology forward and fueling the law of accelerating returns. In turn, the law of accelerating returns is transforming economic relationships. Economic imperative is the equivalent of survival in biological evolution. We are moving toward more intelligent and smaller machines

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have increased value, which explains why they are being built. There are tens of thousands of projects that are advancing the various aspects of the law of accelerating returns in diverse incremental ways. Regardless of near-term business cycles, support for "high tech" in the business community, and in particular for software development,

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be no reason to utilize real offices. Real estate will become virtual. As Sun Tzu pointed out, "knowledge is power," and another ramification of the law of accelerating returns is the exponential growth of human knowledge, including intellectual property. Here is a closeup of the upper-right section of the above figure –ed.: None

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increasing its share of the economy and is increasingly influential on all other sectors, as noted in the figure below.92 Another implication of the law of accelerating returns is exponential growth in education and learning. Over the past 120 years, we have increased our investment in K-12 education (per student and

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reflect the consensus of a buyer-seller market, the prices reflect the underlying linear assumption that most people share regarding future economic growth. But the law of accelerating returns clearly implies that the growth rate will continue to grow exponentially, because the rate of progress will continue to accelerate. MOLLY 2004: But wait a

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be created in small chemistry flasks, a development that will be another important step in the decentralization of our industrial infrastructure and will maintain the law of accelerating returns through this century and beyond. The Computational Capacity of the Human Brain It may seem rash to expect fully intelligent machines in a few decades

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a frozen brain is feasible today, though not yet at sufficient speed or bandwidth to fully map all interconnections. But again, in accordance with the law of accelerating returns, this potential is growing exponentially, as are all other facets of brain scanning. Carnegie Mellon University's Andreas Nowatzyk is scanning the nervous system of

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from a single animal. There are other benefits to this process besides ending hunger. By creating meat in this way, it becomes subject to the law of accelerating returns—the exponential improvements in price-performance of information-based technologies over time—and will thus become extremely inexpensive. Even though hunger in the world today

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brains included—molecular fragment by molecular fragment, potentially atom by atom. We are shrinking the key feature size of technology, in accordance with the law of accelerating returns, at the exponential rate of approximately a factor of four per linear dimension per decade.68 At this rate the key feature sizes for most

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which I discuss below. A primary implication of the nanotechnology revolution is that physical technologies, such as manufacturing and energy, will become governed by the law of accelerating returns. All technologies will essentially become information technologies, including energy. Worldwide energy requirements have been estimated to double by 2030, far less than anticipated economic growth

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and services will continue throughout this period, the amount of valuable information will increase at an even greater, more than offsetting pace. I discussed the law of accelerating returns as applied to the communication of information in chapter 2. The amount of information being communicated will continue to grow exponentially, but the efficiency of

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one another and with our biological neurons. Once nonbiological intelligence gets a foothold, so to speak, in our brains, it will be subject to the law of accelerating returns and expand exponentially. Our biological thinking, on the other hand, is basically stuck. MOLLY 2004: There you go again with things accelerating, but when

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intelligence vastly beyond the hundred trillion extremely slow interneuronal connections that each of us struggles with today. Intelligence will then be fully subject to the law of accelerating returns, which is currently doubling the power of information technologies every year. An underlying problem with artificial intelligence that I have personally experienced in my forty

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surprised that we have not yet uncovered evidence of an ETI. However, we are not just searching for a single needle. Based on the law of accelerating returns, once an ETI reaches primitive mechanical technologies, it is only a few centuries before it reaches the vast capabilities I've projected for the twenty

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our SETI efforts thus far. So let's consider the basic SETI assumption regarding the number of radio-capable civilizations from the perspective of the law of accelerating returns. As we have discussed, an evolutionary process inherently accelerates. Moreover, the evolution of technology is far faster than the relatively slow evolutionary process that

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because the negative finding is no less important than a positive result. The Limits of Computation Revisited. Let's consider some additional implications of the law of accelerating returns to intelligence in the cosmos. In chapter 3 I discussed the ultimate cold laptop and estimated the optimal computational capacity of a one-liter, one

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of a specific project or company, but the overall capabilities of information technology (comprised of many chaotic activities) can nonetheless be dependably anticipated through the law of accelerating returns. Many of the furious attempts to argue why machines—nonbiological systems—cannot ever possibly compare to humans appear to be fueled by this basic reaction

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a means of social security, hoping that at least one child will survive long enough to support them in old age. However, with the law of accelerating returns providing more widespread economic gains, the overall growth in human population is slowing. So isn't there a comparable limit to the exponential trends that

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together will increasingly be met through computation and communication. As I discussed in chapter 5, the full advent of MNT-based manufacturing will bring the law of accelerating returns to such areas as energy and transportation. Once we can create virtually any physical product from information and very inexpensive raw materials, these traditionally slow

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of the GNR revolutions in a few decades, every area of human endeavor will essentially comprise information technologies and thus will directly benefit from the law of accelerating returns. The Criticism from Ontology: Can a Computer Be Conscious? Because we do not understand the brain very well we are constantly tempted to use

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the rest of humankind does not have access.39 Such inequality, of course, would be nothing new, but with regard to this issue the law of accelerating returns has an important and beneficial impact. Because of the ongoing exponential growth of price-performance, all of these technologies quickly become so inexpensive as to

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would point out that the conservatism of social institutions is not a new phenomenon. It is part of the evolutionary process of innovation, and the law of accelerating returns has always operated in this context. Second, innovation has a way of working around the limits imposed by institutions. The advent of decentralized technology empowers

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and contributes to the social innovation of adopting and adapting to new technological innovation is a substantial portion of the population, another reflection of the law of accelerating returns. The Criticism from Theism Another common objection explicitly goes beyond science to maintain that there is a spiritual level that accounts for human capabilities and

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and spirits when the biotechnology and nanotechnology revolutions are fully mature. Contacting the Author Ray Kurzweil can be reached at ray@singularity.com. APPENDIX The Law of Accelerating Returns Revisited The following analysis provides the basis of understanding evolutionary change as a doubly exponential phenomenon (that is, exponential growth in which the rate of

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of the connections is extremely slow compared to contemporary electronics. 28. See notes 20 and 21 in chapter 2. 29. See the appendix, "The Law of Accelerating Returns Revisited," for a mathematical analysis of the exponential growth of information technology as it applies to the price-performance of computation. 30. In a 1950

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Luddites have remained a powerful symbol of opposition to automation and technology. 38. See note 34 above. Chapter Two: A Theory of Technology Evolution: The Law of Accelerating Returns 1. John Smart, Abstract to "Understanding Evolutionary Development: A Challenge for Futurists," presentation to World Futurist Society annual meeting, Washington, D.C., August 3,

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, and the other axis is on a logarithmic scale. However, I am calling these plots "logarithmic plots" for simplicity. 37. See the appendix, "The Law of Accelerating Returns Revisited," which provides a mathematical derivation of why there are two levels of exponential growth (that is, exponential growth over time in which the rate

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, 2003), pp. 45–56, http://www.lloydwatts.com/wcci.pdf. 89. Ibid. 90. See http://www.lloydwatts.com/neuroscience.shtml. NanoComputer Dream Team, "The Law of Accelerating Returns, Part II," http://nanocomputer.org/index.cfm?content=90&Menu=19. 91. See http://info.med.yale.edu/bbs/faculty/she_go.html. 92. Gordon

Grand Transitions: How the Modern World Was Made

by Vaclav Smil  · 2 Mar 2021  · 1,324pp  · 159,290 words

al. 2017. Energizing India. New Delhi: NITI Aayog. http://niti.gov.in/writereaddata/files/document_publication/Energy%20Booklet.pdf Kurzweil, R. 2001. The Law of Accelerating Returns. http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns Kurzweil, R. 2017. Kurzweil Accelerating Intelligence. http://www.kurzweilai.net/ Kuznets, S. 1937. National income and capital formation, 1919–1935. In: M

The Future Is Faster Than You Think: How Converging Technologies Are Transforming Business, Industries, and Our Lives

by Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler  · 28 Jan 2020  · 501pp  · 114,888 words

our new computers to design even faster new computers, and this creates a positive feedback loop that further accelerates our acceleration—what Kurzweil calls the “Law of Accelerating Returns.” The technologies now accelerating at this rate include some of the most potent innovations we have yet dreamed up: quantum computers, artificial intelligence, robotics, nanotechnology

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we struggle to track the growth of singular innovations, we’re downright helpless in the face of converging ones. Put it this way, in “The Law of Accelerating Returns,” Ray Kurzweil did the math and found that we’re going to experience twenty thousand years of technological change over the next one hundred years

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Law. Except—maybe not. “Moore’s Law was not the first, but the fifth paradigm to provide accelerating price-performance,” writes Ray Kurzweil in “The Law of Accelerating Returns.” “Computing devices have been consistently multiplying in power (per unit of time) from the mechanical calculating devices used in the 1890 U.S. Census, to

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-law-technology.html. as a human brain: Ray Kurzweil, How to Create a Mind (Viking, 2012), pp. 179–198. “Law of Accelerating Returns”: Ray Kurzweil, “The Law of Accelerating Returns,” March 7, 2001. See: https://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns. we use the term “disruptive innovation”: Clayton Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma (HarperBusiness, 2000), pp. 15–19. Enter distributed

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Henry Ford, “Willow Run Bomber Plant.” See: https://www.thehenryford.org/collections-and-research/digital-collections/expert-sets/101765/. Put it this way, in “The Law of Accelerating Returns,”: ibid. More Transportation Options Model T: History.com editors, “Ford Motor Company Unveils the Model T,” History, August 27, 2009. See: https://www.history.com

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: Lieven Eeckhout, “Is Moore’s Law Slowing Down? What Next?, IEEE Micro 37, no. 4: 4–5. “Moore’s Law was not the first”: Kurzweil, “Law of Accelerating Returns.” Apple’s recent A12 Bionic: See: https://www.apple.com/iphone-xs/a12-bionic/. Rose’s Law: Tim Ferriss does a good job overviewing this

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, Petteri, 41 Lancet, 226 land ownership, blockchain and, 58 Lanier, Jaron, 50 LA Times, 67 “Law for Restoration of the Professional Civil Service” (Germany), 238 “Law of Accelerating Returns,” 8, 12, 29 Leap Motion, 52 Lemonade, 186–87 lending, peer-to-peer, 74, 194–95 Leroy Merlin, 110 leveraged assets, 84 Levine, Mark, 241

The Transhumanist Reader

by Max More and Natasha Vita-More  · 4 Mar 2013  · 798pp  · 240,182 words

avoiding finite time singularities, still has crises where it shifts from one mode to another, possibly over very short periods of time. Law of accelerating returns (type A,B) Ray Kurzweil formulates the “law of accelerating returns” as (Kurzweil 2001): Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are

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. Kremer, M. (1993) “Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million BC to 1990.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 108, pp. 681–716. Kurzweil, Ray (2001) “The Law of Accelerating Returns.” http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html. Kurzweil, Ray (2005) The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. New York: Viking. Kurzweil, Ray, Vinge, Vernor

The Myth of Artificial Intelligence: Why Computers Can't Think the Way We Do

by Erik J. Larson  · 5 Apr 2021

accelerating. As Kurzweil famously argues, technology is getting more complicated on an accelerating curve, according to a law he thinks is discernible in history, the Law of Accelerating Returns. Thus, human-level intelligence and then superintelligence will emerge on the planet in drastically short timeframes, as compared to organic evolution. In decades or even

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to happen in the next few years.”4 Ray Kurzweil gives a more hedgehog answer: human-level AI will arrive in 2029. He invokes his “law” of accelerating returns to make his prediction seem scientific, and he sees continuing evidence that he’s right in all the supposed progress to date.5 Philosophers sometimes

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, 35, 38, 84, 274; on consciousness, 78–79; on future of AI, 70, 74; hierarchical pattern recognition theory of, 264–266; on human intelligence, 251; Law of Accelerating Returns of, 42, 47–48, 67; on singularity, 46; on superintelligent machines, 2; on Turing test, 193–194 ladder of causation, 130, 174 Lakatos, Imre, 48

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natural language Lanier, Jaron, 84, 244, 277; on encouraging human intelligence, 239; on erosion of personhood, 270, 272–273 Large Hadron Collider (LHC), 254–255 Law of Accelerating Returns (LOAR), 42, 47–48 learning: definition of, 133; by humans, 141 LeCun, Yann, 75 Legos theory of cognition, 266 Lenat, Doug, 74 Levesque, Hector, 76

Exponential Organizations: Why New Organizations Are Ten Times Better, Faster, and Cheaper Than Yours (And What to Do About It)

by Salim Ismail and Yuri van Geest  · 17 Oct 2014  · 292pp  · 85,151 words

, to make four signature observations: First, the doubling pattern identified by Gordon Moore in integrated circuits applies to any information technology. Kurzweil calls this the Law of Accelerating Returns (LOAR) and shows that doubling patterns in computation extend all the way back to 1900, far earlier than Moore’s original pronouncement. Second, the driver

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seen so many technologies moving at such a pace. And now that we are information-enabling everything around us, the effects of the Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns are sure to be profound. What’s more, as these technologies intersect (e.g., using deep-learning AI algorithms to analyze cancer trials), the pace

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once said, “Give me a lever long enough, and I’ll move the world.” Simply put, mankind has never had a bigger lever. Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns and Moore’s Law long ago broke from the confines of semiconductors and have utterly transformed human society over the last fifty years. Now, Exponential

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the Introduction, Kurzweil took Moore’s Law several steps further, noting that every information-based paradigm operates in the same way, something he called the Law of Accelerating Returns (LOAR). There is a growing recognition that the pace of change formerly seen in computing is now mapping into other technologies with the same effect

An Optimist's Tour of the Future

by Mark Stevenson  · 4 Dec 2010  · 379pp  · 108,129 words

the past five years it’s been halving every four months.’ (This is just one of a number of startling examples of something called the ‘Law of Accelerating Returns’ that I will come across many times on my travels – and which has some interesting implications for us all.) It’s no exaggeration to say

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’s more, they stimulate each other in a mutual catalysis that at times results in hyper-exponential growth of power. Ray calls this phenomenon ‘the law of accelerating returns’ and what it means, he says, is change will come faster than we think. Author Matt Ridley is fascinated by what he calls ‘the rapid

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further out into space, connect billions of us together and put processing power into every corner of the biosphere. To understand the implications of the law of accelerating returns, you have to get your head around how potent the effect of doubling can be. Think of it this way. Let’s say you travel

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faster rate of progress is good for the planet. ‘All these concerns that we’re running out of resources would be absolutely true if the law of accelerating returns didn’t exist,’ he says. ‘For instance, people take current trends in the use of energy and just assume nothing’s going to change, ignoring

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sun every day than we are using. So if we restrict ourselves to nineteenth-century technologies, these concerns would be correct.’ In other words, the law of accelerating returns should soon see a green energy revolution as solar power keeps doubling its efficiency and halving its cost, leaving fossil fuels standing. After my experiences

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kind of innovation that keeps the exponential going. In 1999, Kurzweil published The Age of Spiritual Machines in which he applied his understanding of the law of accelerating returns to make predictions, and – handily – made a bunch for 2009. Critics and advocates alike have leapt on these, loudly proclaiming ‘Ray was right!’ or ‘Ray

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seems, in fact, that I’ve spent my journey seeing much of what Ray forecast in 1999 coming true. If Ray’s right about the law of accelerating returns, and I think when it comes to infotech, nanotech and biotech he is, this means that when I decided to investigate the future of my

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fighter straight from the crib. For Ray, though, that’s kind of the point – crib to jet fighter is really just a few doublings, the law of accelerating returns in action. In fact, Ray points out that sometimes the rate of doubling can double itself, creating the ‘hyper-exponential growth’ Stewart Brand references. Others

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show an exponential growth in our ability to make sense of the great philosophical questions: “What is life?” “What is consciousness?” Have we seen the law of accelerating returns in our understanding of these questions? Is the growth of wisdom keeping pace with our technology?’ Ray falls silent, contemplating, and then deflects slightly, telling

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beyond the obvious.’ Pure TED. On TED.com, too, you can see Juan Enriquez talk about the coming age of genomics, Ray Kurzweil summarise his law of accelerating returns, and Hod Lipson demonstrate his self-aware robots. You can see Ken Robinson ask us to re-evaluate what we need from our educational systems

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, other than it’s probably not going to be as good as you think. But there are bigger trends at work, like Ray Kurzweil’s “law of accelerating returns”: the idea that it’s in the nature of ideas themselves to build on one another.’ Like John Seely Brown, Chris has seen a quickening

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21–2, 267–8 Kyrgyzstan 157 L Lackner, Klaus 173, 174–86, 188, 189, 259–60, 299, 301 Lana 224–5 Langley, Tim 212–19 Law of Accelerating Returns 51, 270–8, 293 Leber’s congenital amaurosis (LCA) 59–60 Legion of Extraordinary Dancers 155, 158, 294 Lehmann, Johannes 209–10 Leo 73–4

Present Shock: When Everything Happens Now

by Douglas Rushkoff  · 21 Mar 2013  · 323pp  · 95,939 words

have been mapped and virtualized by computers in around 2050, anyway. We may as well stand aside and let it rip. Thanks to Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns, technology develops exponentially and has been doing so since time began. But it is only getting really interesting now that we have rounded the bend

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of the exponential curve to a nearly vertical and infinite shot upward. The antithesis of the Law of Diminishing Returns, the Law of Accelerating Returns holds that technology will overtake humanity and nature, no matter what. In his numerous books, talks, and television appearances, Kurzweil remains unswerving in his conviction

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Kennedy, John F., 29 Kirn, Walter, 234 kleptomania, 166 Korzybski, Alfred, 103, 137–38, 139 Kurzweil, Ray, 254–56 Kutcher, Ashton, 119 Langley, John, 35 Law of Accelerating Returns, Kurzweil’s, 255–56 Law of Diminishing Returns, 255 Law and Order (TV show), 20, 32 Le Guin, Ursula K., 13 leading, digiphrenia and, 93

The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence

by Ray Kurzweil  · 31 Dec 1998  · 696pp  · 143,736 words

..... Nothing less than a blueprint for how to shove Homo sapiens off centre-stage in evolution’s endless play.... If you buy into [Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns]—and all empirical evidence currently available supports it completely—then the replacement of humans by machines as the primary intellectual force on Earth is indeed

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of the Law of Time and Chaos that is the most important and relevant for our purposes. Consider the inverse sublaw, which I call the Law of Accelerating Returns: The Law of Accelerating Returns: As order exponentially increases, time exponentially speeds up (that is, the time interval between salient events grows shorter as time passes). The

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our purposes requires randomness that is relevant to the process we are concerned with. The opposite of disorder—which I called “order” in the above Law of Accelerating Returns—is even trickier. Let’s start with our definition of disorder and work backward. If disorder represents a random sequence of events, then the opposite

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takes full control of its own progression. We can thus conclude the following with regard to the evolution of life-forms, and of technology:The Law of Accelerating Returns as Applied to an Evolutionary Process: ▲ An evolutionary process is not a closed system; therefore, evolution draws upon the chaos in the larger system in

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speed up. These are the two sides—two interleaved spirals—of the Law of Time and Chaos. The spiral we are most interested in—the Law of Accelerating Returns—gives us ever greater order in technology, which inevitably leads to the emergence of computation. Computation is the essence of order. It provides the ability

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chaos-a sublaw of the Law of Time and Chaos—and describes a wide range of apparently divergent phenomena and trends. In accordance with the Law of Accelerating Returns, another computational technology will pick up where Moore’s Law will have left off, without missing a beat. Most Exponential Trends Hit a Wall ... but

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exclusive niche. Based on this, some observers are quick to predict the demise of the exponential growth of computing. But the growth predicted by the Law of Accelerating Returns is an exception to the frequently cited limitations to exponential growth. Even a catastrophe, as apparently befell our reptilian cohabitants in the late Cretaceous period

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such as expanded brain function. The inventions of evolution in one era provide the means, and often the intelligence, for innovation in the next. The Law of Accelerating Returns applies equally to the evolutionary process of computation, which inherently will grow exponentially and essentially without limit. The two resources it needs-the growing order

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computing technologies waiting in the wings—nanotube, optical, crystalline, DNA, and quantum (which we’ll visit in chapter 6, “Building New Brains”)—to keep the Law of Accelerating Returns going in the world of computation for a very long time. A Planetary Affair The introduction of technology on Earth is not merely the private

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a plethora of other “failure modes.” We’ll talk about this in later chapters. I CAN’T WAIT. NOW TELL ME THIS, WHAT DOES THE LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS HAVE TO DO WITH THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY? Exponential trends are immensely powerful but deceptive. They linger for eons with very little effect. But once

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in the layout of the retina than in the shape of the eyeball itself. So in certain ways, the strategies of evolution have evolved. The Law of Accelerating Returns says that it should, for evolving its own strategies is the primary way that an evolutionary process builds on itself. By simulating evolution, we can

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very soon—in evolutionary terms, or even in terms of human history—and within the lifetimes of most of the readers of this book. The Law of Accelerating Returns predicts it. And furthermore, it predicts that the progression in the capabilities of human-created machines will only continue to accelerate. The human species creating

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Jack. Certainly this specter is unnerving, perhaps more frightening than appealing. And undoubtedly it will be controversial for a long time (although according to the Law of Accelerating Returns, a “long time” is not as long as it used to be). Ultimately, the overwhelming benefits of replacing unreliable neural circuits with improved ones will

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hold true for our human-brain-scanning projects. We can do it now—very slowly—but that speed, like most everything else governed by the Law of Accelerating Returns, will get exponentially faster in the years ahead. Now suppose as we destructively scan Jack, we simultaneously install this information into the new Jack. We

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to scrap an entire design and start over. Organisms created through DNA-based evolution are stuck with an extremely plodding type of circuitry. But the Law of Accelerating Returns tells us that evolution will not remain stuck at a dead end for very long. And indeed, evolution has found a way around the computational

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will be ported to a far more versatile and speedier electronic (and photonic) equivalent. When will this happen? Let’s take another look at the Law of Accelerating Returns as applied to computation. Achieving the Hardware Capacity of the Human Brain In the chapter 1 chart, “The Exponential Growth of Computing, 1900-1998,” we

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in the rate of exponential growth. 1 This apparent acceleration in the acceleration may result, however, from the confounding of the two strands of the Law of Accelerating Returns, which for the past forty years has expressed itself using the Moore’s Law paradigm of shrinking transistor sizes on an integrated circuit. As transistor

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per second. This apparent acceleration in the acceleration of computer speeds may result, therefore, from an improving ability to benefit from both strands of the Law of Accelerating Returns. When Moore’s Law dies by the year 2020, new forms of circuitry beyond integrated circuits will continue both strands of exponential improvement. But ordinary

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strands of it—is dramatic enough. Using the more conservative prediction of just one level of acceleration as our guide, let’s consider where the Law of Accelerating Returns will take us in the twenty-first century. The human brain has about 100 billion neurons. With an estimated average of one thousand connections between

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the human brain, so we already have available in at least one form the hardware side of human intelligence. And with the continuation of the Law of Accelerating Returns, this availability will become increasingly ubiquitous. After human capacity in a $1,000 personal computer is achieved around the year 2020, our thinking machines will

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computing capacity or memory. Computing Substrates in the Twenty-First Century I’ve noted that the continued exponential growth of computing is implied by the Law of Accelerating Returns, which states that any process that moves toward greater order—evolution in particular—will exponentially speed up its pace as time passes. The two resources

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by periodic leaps or discontinuities followed by periods of relative stability. It is thus remarkable how predictable computer progress has been. So, how will the Law of Accelerating Returns as applied to computation roll out in the decades beyond the demise of Moore’s Law on Integrated Circuits by the year 2020? For the

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solve. Quantum computers harness a paradoxical result of quantum mechanics. Actually, I am being redundant—all results of quantum mechanics are paradoxical. Note that the Law of Accelerating Returns and other projections in this book do not rely on quantum computing. The projections in this book are based on readily measurable trends and are

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a high-resolution method of brain scanning. The driving force behind the rapidly improving capability of noninvasive scanning technologies such as MRI is again the Law of Accelerating Returns, because it requires massive computational ability to build the high-resolution, three-dimensional images from the raw magnetic resonance patterns that an MRI scanner produces

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. The exponentially increasing computational ability provided by the Law of Accelerating Returns (and for another fifteen to twenty years, Moore’s Law) will enable us to continue to rapidly improve the resolution and speed of these noninvasive

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be true of the human-brain-mapping project, as our methods of scanning and recording the 100 trillion neural connections pick up speed from the Law of Accelerating Returns. What to Do with the Information There are two scenarios for using the results of detailed brain scans. The most immediate—scanning the brain to

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to the issue of consciousness. Machines in the twenty-first century will report the same range of experiences that humans do. In accordance with the Law of Accelerating Returns, they will report an even broader range. And they will be very convincing when they speak of their experiences. But what will they really be

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new wealth is being created. Information and knowledge are not limited by the availability of material resources, and in accordance with the Law of Accelerating Returns will continue to grow exponentially. The Law of Accelerating Returns includes financial returns. Thus a key implication of the law is continuing economic growth. As this book is being written, there has

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this direction, these new economic imperatives have grown more rapidly than most observers expected (and their importance will continue to escalate in accordance with the Law of Accelerating Returns). • Prediction: A worldwide information network linking almost all organizations and tens of millions of individuals will emerge (admittedly, not by the name World Wide Web

…

million today. The process of automation that began in England two hundred years ago—and continues today at an ever accelerating pace (as per the Law of Accelerating Returns)—eliminates jobs at the bottom of the skill ladder and creates new ones at the top of the skill ladder. Hence increasing investment in education

…

of the bulk of the human population, and ultimately beyond the ability of any human, educational innovations notwithstanding? The answer we can predict from the Law of Accelerating Returns is that the ladder will nonetheless continue to reach ever higher, implying that humans will need to become more capable by other means. Education can

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the advance of technology as just an impersonal, inexorable force. I THOUGHT YOU SAID THE ACCELERATING ADVANCE OF TECHNOLOGY—AND COMPUTATION—WAS INEXORABLE; REMEMBER, THE LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS? Uh, yes, the advance is inexorable all right, we’re not going to stop technology But we do have some choices. We have the opportunity

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’s consider one final question. The Law of Time and Chaos, and its more important sublaw, the Law of Accelerating Returns, are not limited to evolutionary processes here on Earth. What are the implications of the Law of Accelerating Returns on the rest of the Universe? Rare and Plentiful Before Copernicus, the Earth was placed at the center

…

computational technology and ultimately replace those information-processing organs. All kinds of practical and ethical issues delay the process, but they cannot stop it. The Law of Accelerating Returns predicts a complete merger of the species with the technology it originally created. Failure Modes But wait, this step is not inevitable. The species together

…

technology may destroy itself before achieving this step. Destruction of the entire evolutionary process is the only way to stop the exponential march of the Law of Accelerating Returns. Sufficiently powerful technologies are created along the way that have the potential to destroy the ecological niche that the species and its technology occupy Given

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computation. This is even more true when we consider all of the dumb matter in the Earth’s midst. Now consider another implication of the Law of Accelerating Returns. Another of its corollaries is that overall computational density grows exponentially And as the cost-performance of computation increases exponentially, greater resources are devoted to

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its capability over time. While harder to quantify,1 the density of intelligence is closely related to the density of computation. The implication of the Law of Accelerating Returns is that intelligence on Earth and in our Solar System will vastly expand over time. The same can be said across the galaxy and throughout

…

representation A system for organizing human knowledge in a domain into a data structure flexible enough to allow the expression of facts, rules, and relationships. Law of Accelerating Returns As order exponentially increases, time exponentially speeds up (i.e., the time interval between salient events grows shorter as time passes). Law of Increasing Chaos

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version—the Z-3—that is the most historic. It stands as the world’s first programmable computer. As one would retroactively predict from the Law of Accelerating Returns as applied to computation, Zuse’s Z-3 was rather slow—a multiplication took more than three seconds.While Zuse received some incidental support from

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achieving human-level capabilities in crystalline density of destruction of information in digital DNA exponential growth of inevitability of on Internet, proposal for irreversibility of Law of Accelerating Returns applied to nanotubes and optical order and quantum, see quantum computing Turing Machine model of see also artificial intelligence; intelligence computers art and, see arts

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computer simulation of of conscious life consciousness in DNA-based and end of Universe of evolution of eye fetal development and inefficiency of intelligence of Law of Accelerating Returns applied to of life-forms natural selection in pace of of pathogens Punctuated Equilibrium theories on record of achievement in of technology evolutionary algorithms basic

…

Clinical Reporter) Landauer, Rolf language natural translating of Turing Test and language user interfaces (LUIs) LANs (local area networks) Lao-tzu Larson, Steve Latham, William Law of Accelerating Returns applied to computation applied to evolution brain scans and in flow chart quantum computing and scanning technologies and Universe and Law of Increasing Chaos Law

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Twilight Zone, The 2000, Y2K and 2009 2019 2029 2099 United States Universe: birth of consciousness and development of end of expansion and contraction of Law of Accelerating Returns and life in relevance of intelligence to visits from other planets in Ussachevsky, Vladimir Utility Fog venture capital virtual environments, in games virtual reality feelings

Immortality, Inc.

by Chip Walter  · 7 Jan 2020  · 232pp  · 72,483 words

commander in chief that March morning, Kurzweil thought to himself, They are finally getting it. And of course they had to because the Law of Accelerating Returns made it so. * * * — THE LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS, or what Ray Kurzweil came to call LOAR, had begun to dawn on him as early as the 1980s, but wasn’t really

…

organized it all became, the more quickly it continued to organize. This made Moore’s law a subset of a much larger evolutionary vision: the Law of Accelerating Returns—LOAR. Kurzweil enthusiastically shared all of this thinking with the world. On stages or in conference rooms, he would reveal on great graphs how LOAR

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thing was to let technology march ahead, Tom Swift-style, because that was where we were headed. It was all right there in LOAR (the Law of Accelerating Returns). Yes, one had to be vigilant and control the power of smart machines. He had been saying that for years. But no need to hit

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