More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun-Control Laws
by John R. Lott · 15 May 2010 · 456pp · 185,658 words
More Guns, Less Crime MORE GUNS, LESS CRIME UNDERSTANDING CRIME AND GUN-CONTROL LAWS THIRD EDITION JOHN R. LOTT, JR. THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO PRESS CHICAGO AND LONDON John R. Lott, Jr., is
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ISBN-13: 978-0-226- 49366-4 (paper) ISBN-10: 0-226-49366-0 (paper) Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Lott, John R. More guns, less crime : understanding crime and gun-control laws / John R. Lott, Jr.—3rd ed. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13: 978-0-226-49366
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problem is that crime moves in waves, yet Lott’s analysis does not include variables that can explain these cycles. (David Hemenway, “Book Review of More Guns, Less Crime,” New England Journal of Medicine, December 31, 1998) Jens Ludwig, assistant professor of public policy at Georgetown University, argued that Lott’s data don’t
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of history in the way he models crime. For example, the year 1982 could as well follow 1991 as 1981 in his analyses. (David Hemenway, “More Guns, Less Crime,” New England Journal of Medicine, May 20, 1999) Even my most determined critics concede one point: violent-crime rates fell at the point in time
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’s your take on John Lott’s study and subsequent book that concludes concealed weapon laws lower the crime rate? (Lott’s book is titled “More Guns, Less Crime,” University of Chicago Press, 1998.) A. His basic premise in his study is that these laws encourage private citizens to carry guns and therefore discourage
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anything about gun ownership in any state, and it cannot be used to compare gun ownership to the earlier 1988 voter poll. (“More Guns, Less Crime? A Debate between John Lott, Author of More Guns, Less Crime, and Douglas Weil, Research Director of Handgun Control, Inc.,” an on-line debate sponsored by Time magazine, transcript from July 1
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found that the rightto-carry laws simply don’t bring down crime. —Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner, Freakonomics (2005), pp. 133–34 The Numbers After More Guns, Less Crime first appeared in 1998 (with the second edition in 2000), a host of new empirical research was undertaken on the effect of right-to-carry
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with the county- level crime data sets used in MGLC that its analyses are called into question. We note, however, that the second edition of More Guns, Less Crime (Lott, 2000) includes state- and city-level analyses, which are not subject to this particular problem. . . . Not all police agencies provide 12 months of crime
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talented experts who spent two years looking at John Lott’s work, Gary Kleck’s work. . . . They concluded the scientific evidence does not support the more guns, less crime proposition. The lone dissenter was someone who was not an econometrician, who admitted in his dissent that he wished he knew more econometrics, and who
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criticism.138 Ayres and Donohue claimed that “we hope that this indicates that the arguments in our Reply have caused the primary proponent of the more guns, less crime hypothesis to at least partially amend his views.” It is quite an amazing slur against Plassmann and Whitley to claim that they insisted on publishing
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, with a t-statistic that is significant at better than the .01 percent level for a twotailed t-test. 3. David Hemenway, “Book Review of More Guns, Less Crime,” New England Journal of Medicine, Dec. 31, 1998, pp. 2029–30. 4. Jens Ludwig, “Concealed-Gun-Carrying Law and Violent Crime: Evidence from State Panel
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groups” (John R. Lott, Jr., “Who Is Really Hurt by Affirmative Action?” Subject to Debate, May 1998, pp. 1, 3). 52. William F. Shughart II, “More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws: Review,” Southern Economic Journal 65, no. 4 (Apr. 1, 1999): 978. 53. Bruce L. Benson, “Review of
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More Guns, Less Crime,” Public Choice 100 (Sept. 1999), nos. 3–4: 309. 54. Stan Liebowitz, “Handgun Argument Is Loaded,” Dallas Morning News, June 21, 1998. 55. Nelson Lund, “
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came to a conclusion opposite of Mr. Lott’s, and their study (like his) is open to review by experts in many fields” (Molly Ivins, “More Guns, Less Crime? Are You Sure?” Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Aug. 15, 1999). For clarification, the Center to Prevent Handgun Violence is part of Handgun Control, and Sarah
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from 1992–97” (Richard Cook, “Don’t Buy the Pro-Gun Arguments,” Kansas City Star, Mar. 11, 1999, p. B7). 62. Peter Squires, “Review of More Guns, Less Crime,” British Journal of Criminology 39, no. 2 (Spring 1999): 318–20. 63. My book does not even cite this quotation, though I mentioned it in
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know how he can claim to have studied the impact of the Brady law on crime rates or criminal access to guns” (“More Guns, Less Crime?: A Debate between John Lott, Author of More Guns, Less Crime, and Douglas Weil, Research Director of Handgun Control, Inc.,” an online debate sponsored by Time magazine, transcript from July 1, 1998
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the heading “More about Concealed Weapons.” It read: While your piece “Should You Carry a Gun?” [July 6] was generally favorable toward my new book, More Guns, Less Crime, it contained seriously misleading statements. Despite accusations by some critics, my study on the effect that carrying concealed weapons has on crime absolutely did not
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officers and police expenditures per capita, as well as the impact that the prevention of less serious crimes has on more serious ones. 68. Ivins, “More Guns, Less Crime? Are You Sure?” 69. Tom Teepen, “A Modest Proposal: Let’s Arm the Teachers,” Atlanta Journal and Constitution, Sunday, May 17, 1998, p. 2G. 70
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24, 1998, p. 6B: Tom Teepen’s column “A modest proposal: Let’s arm the teachers,” Perspective, May 17), an attack on my new book “More Guns, Less Crime” (University of Chicago N OT E S TO PA G E S 2 0 8 – 2 1 2 | 405 Press), contained misleading information. He claimed
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have fallen. We need to explain the other 90 percent before concluding that the “best” social policy is to carry more handguns. (Shela Van Ness, “More Guns, Less Crime? This Isn’t Just a ‘Good Guy’ vs. ‘Bad Guy’ Issue,” Chattanooga Times / Chattanooga Free Press, May 9, 1999, p. H1) For the first point
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blanched at the prospect of pitching it to bookstores. Some cited personal views about guns; others thought that the book would alienate booksellers” (Christopher Shea, “‘More Guns, Less Crime’: A Scholar’s Thesis Inflames Debate over Weapons Control,” Chronicle of Higher Education, June 5, 1998, p. A14). 74. In this case, the dummy must
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discussion of the issues. The give and take also allows people to ferret out the weaknesses and strengths of different arguments. 80. Benson, “Review of More Guns, Less Crime” p. 312. 81. An example of one of the other criticisms is by Ayres and Donohue where they write that “the ultimate criticism of Lott
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Gun Buyers Save lives? Yes: Stop Deadly, Unregulated Sales to Minors, at Gun Shows and on the Internet,” Insight, June 21, 1999, p. 24; or “More Guns, Less Crime? A Debate between John Lott and Douglas Weil.” 85. Gary Kleck, Targeting Guns: Firearms and Their Control (Hawthorne, NY: Aldine de Gruyter Publishers, 1997), p
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. CHAPTER TEN 1. Matt Bai, “The Gun Crowd’s Guru,” Newsweek, Mar. 12, 2001. 2. John Donohue, “The Final Bullet in the Body of the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis,” Criminology and Public Policy 2, no. 3 (2003): 397–410. In an interview for the Wichita Eagle (Kansas), Donohue would claim in 2003, “It
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residents (http: // www.des.utah.gov / bci / documents / 2008Q4.pdf ). 95. Following Donohue, “The Final Bullet in the Body of the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis,” and F. Plassmann and John Whitley, “Confirming ‘More Guns, Less Crime,’” Stanford Law Review, 2003, pp. 1313–69, I will do the year-by-year affects by two-year intervals. 96. The
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, “The Debate on Shall-Issue Laws,” Econ Journal Watch, Sept. 2008, pp. 269–93. 104. E. Helland and A. Tabarrok, “Using Placebo Laws to Test ‘More Guns, Less Crime,’” Advances in Economic Analysis and Policy 4, no. 1 (2004). 105. D. E. Olsen and M. D. Maltz, “Right-to-Carry Concealed Weapons Laws and
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negative coefficients with statistical significance between the 5 and 10 percent levels. 116. For example, Ian Ayres and John J. Donohue III, “Shooting Down the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis” (draft version available from author), p. 20, write: “Note that for a number of the violent crime categories, very large negative estimated coefficients are
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5, 2001. N OT E S TO PA G E S 2 9 8 – 3 0 6 | 419 126. Ayres and Donohue, “Shooting Down the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis,” p. 1296. 127. http: // www.npr.org / templates / story / story.php?storyId=96409853. 128. See Roland Fryer, Paul Heaton, Steven Levitt, and Kevin Murphy
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to our paper in the Stanford Law Review was incorrect due to Lott’s coding errors.” Donohue, “The Final Bullet in the Body of the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis,” pp. 397–410. 139. A copy of the Stanford Law Review “Clarification” can be found at http: // johnrlott .tripod.com / clarification.pdf. 140. See
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, and Mark Cohen. “The Effect of Concealed Weapons Laws: An Extreme Bound Analysis.” Economic Inquiry 36 (Apr. 1998): 258–65. Benson, Bruce L. “Review of More Guns, Less Crime.” Public Choice 100, nos. 3–4 (Sept. 1999): 309–13. Black, Dan A., and Daniel S. Nagin. “Do Right-to-Carry Laws Deter Violent Crime
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Guarantee of the Right to Bear Arms: Can It Be Justified Empirically?” University of South Carolina working paper, December 1999. Hemenway, David. “Book Review of More Guns, Less Crime.” New England Journal of Medicine, Dec. 31, 1998, pp. 2029–30. Kellermann, Arthur, and Sheryl Heron. “Firearms and Family Violence.” Emergency Medicine Clinics of North
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in the Effects of Right-to-Carry Laws on Crime.” Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University working paper, November 19, 1999. Shughart, William F., II. “More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws: Review.” Southern Economic Journal 65, no. 4 (Apr. 1, 1999): 978–81. Slobogin, Christopher. “Why Liberals Should Chuck the
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Exclusionary Rule.” University of Illinois Law Review 99 (1999): 363–446. Squires, Peter. “Review of More Guns, Less Crime.” British Journal of Criminology 39, no. 2 (Spring 1999): 318–20. U.S. General Accounting Office. “Accidental Shootings: Many Deaths and Injuries Caused by Firearms
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Could Be Prevented.” Washington, DC: U.S. General Accounting Office, Mar. 1991. SUPPLEMENTARY ENTRIES FOR THIRD EDITION Ayres, Ian, and John Donohue. “Shooting Down the ‘More Guns, Less Crime’ Hypothesis.” Stanford Law Review 55, no. 4 (2003): 1202–1309. Benson, B. L., and B. D. Mast. “Privately Produced General Deterrence.” Journal of Law and
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: An Economic Analysis,” ed. J. Gruber, pp. 219–69. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2001. Donohue, John. “The Final Bullet in the Body of the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis.” Criminology and Public Policy 2, no. 3 (2003): 397–410. Duggan, Mark. “More Guns, More Crime.” Journal of Political Economy 109, no. 5 (Oct
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. “Firearm Use by Offenders.” Bureau of Justice Statistics, U.S. Department of Justice, Nov. 2001. Helland, E., and A. Tabarrok. “Using Placebo Laws to Test ‘More Guns, Less Crime.’” Advances in Economic Analysis and Policy 4, no. 1, article 1 (2004). Intelligence Squared. “Do Guns Reduce Crime?” Debate on National Public Radio, Nov. 5
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Handguns Deter Countable Crimes? Only a Count Analysis Can Say.” Journal of Law and Economics, 44 (2001): 771–98. Plassmann, F., and John Whitley. “Confirming ‘More Guns, Less Crime,’” Stanford Law Review, 2003, p. 1313–69. Scalia, John. “Federal Firearm Offenders, 1992–98.” Bureau of Justice Statistics, U.S. Department of Justice, June 2000
The Way of the Gun: A Bloody Journey Into the World of Firearms
by Iain Overton · 15 Apr 2015 · 436pp · 125,809 words
&list=PLyaSPxNidLLvIef8u5rR-6siU2Bs8csn0 44. http://dailycaller.com/2014/03/06/cpac-wayne-lapierres-speech/2/ 45. http://www.nraila.org/news-issues/fact-sheets/2013/more-guns-less-crime-2013.aspx 46. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/28/nra-war-on-america-wayne-lapierre-indianapolis 47. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news
Merchants of the Right: Gun Sellers and the Crisis of American Democracy
by Jennifer Carlson · 2 May 2023 · 279pp · 100,877 words
that the promotion of gun rights, to the extent that it is formulated as a political and social panacea to gun violence (i.e., the “more guns, less crime” mantra), takes its advocates off the hook of having to look closely at the suffering of those, disproportionately people of color, who experience gun violence
Giving the Devil His Due: Reflections of a Scientific Humanist
by Michael Shermer · 8 Apr 2020 · 677pp · 121,255 words
pro-gun side of the debate, John Lott, whom I spent a weekend with in Santa Fe, New Mexico, at a conference and whose book More Guns, Less Crime has been a steady flash point for controversy, argues that gun bans have the opposite effect than intended.37 Take Washington, DC, he says. Before
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are (1) critical of Lott’s methods and results, and (2) show the exact opposite of what he concluded in his title-by-thesis book: More Guns, Less Crime. As often as not, more guns is associated with more crime, particularly homicide. As a quick-and-dirty guide to the gun-control debate, here
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. Pepper, and Carol V. Petrie (Eds.). 2005. Firearms and Violence: A Critical Review. National Research Council, National Academy of Science, NAP. 37. Lott, John. 2010. More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws (3rd Edition). University of Chicago Press. 38. Feldman, Josh. 2012. “Piers Morgan and Alan Dershowitz Get in Heated Argument
Confronting Gun Violence in America
by Thomas Gabor · 12 Sep 2016
and Carrying In 1998, John Lott, then a University of Chicago economist, gave the concealed carry movement some credibility with the publication of his book More Guns, Less Crime.14 Lott conducted statistical analyses from 1985 to 1992 that purported to show that states with Shall Issue concealed carry laws (i.e., carry laws
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Jul 10. Available from: http:// washington.cbslocal.com/2014/07/10/report-number-of-concealed-carrypermits-surges-as-violent-crime-rate-drops/ 14. Lott J. More guns, less crime. Chicago: University of Chicago Press; 1998. 15. Ludwig J. Concealed gun-carrying laws and violent crime: evidence from state panel data. Int Rev. Law Econ
Dark Money: The Hidden History of the Billionaires Behind the Rise of the Radical Right
by Jane Mayer · 19 Jan 2016 · 558pp · 168,179 words
best. For example, Olin Foundation funds enabled John R. Lott Jr., then an Olin fellow at the University of Chicago, to write his influential book More Guns, Less Crime. In the work, Lott argued that more guns actually reduce crime and that the legalization of concealed weapons would make citizens safer. Politicians advocating weaker
The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution
by Gregory Zuckerman · 5 Nov 2019 · 407pp · 104,622 words
work meetings, but Mercer turned oddly loquacious over these meals. Some of his comments—such as his support for the gold standard and affection for More Guns, Less Crime, the John R. Lott Jr. book arguing that crime falls when gun ownership rises—reflected conservative beliefs. Others were more iconoclastic. “Gas prices are up
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. See also Renaissance Technologies Corporation Straus at, 74–77 trading models, 54–60, 62–63 Money Game, The (Goodman), 124–25 Monty Hall problem, 211 More Guns, Less Crime (Lott Jr.), 207 Morgan, Howard, 56 Morgan Stanley, 129–33, 157, 166, 211, 256 Moscow State University, 236 moving averages, 73 Muller, Peter, 256, 299
Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything
by Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner · 11 Apr 2005 · 339pp · 95,988 words
girl above, instead of her mugger). The economist John R. Lott Jr. is the main champion of this idea. His calling card is the book More Guns, Less Crime, in which he argues that violent crime has decreased in areas where law-abiding citizens are allowed to carry concealed weapons. His theory might be
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, “Right-to-Carry Concealed Guns and the Importance of Deterrence,” Journal of Legal Studies 26 (January 1997), pp. 1–68; and John R. Lott Jr., More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1998). / 121 John Lott as Mary Rosh: See Julian Sanchez, “The Mystery of Mary
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His Critics,” Washington Post, February 1, 2003. / 121–22 Lott’s gun theory disproved: See Ian Ayres and John J. Donohue III, “Shooting Down the ‘More Guns, Less Crime’ Hypothesis,” Stanford Law Review 55 (2003), pp. 1193–1312; and Mark Duggan, “More Guns, More Crime,” Journal of Political Economy 109, no. 5 (2001), pp
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of drug-dealing and embezzlement of laundering of oil and politics and stealing of Moore, Harry T. morality economics vs. incentives and self-interest and More Guns, Less Crime (J. Lott) Morris, William Moses, Zelman Mulligan, Casey murder. See homicide Murphy, Kevin Mussolini, Benito mutual funds names Asian-American black female black male brand
The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature
by Steven Pinker · 1 Jan 2002 · 901pp · 234,905 words
difficult to prove that in 1998 the legal scholar John Lott published a book of statistical analyses with a title that flaunts the opposite conclusion: More Guns, Less Crime. Even if he is wrong, as I suspect he is, it is not so easy to show that more guns mean more crime. As for
Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics
by Richard H. Thaler · 10 May 2015 · 500pp · 145,005 words
together a series of visiting appointments allowing him to be at the university for several years. Lott is most famous for writing a book entitled More Guns, Less Crime. As the title suggests, the thesis of the book is that if we just made sure every American was armed at all times, no one
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evidently writes”: Solow (2009). 262 “The Problem of Social Cost”: Coase (1960). 262 “This is, of course, a very unrealistic assumption”: Ibid., p. 15. 265 More Guns, Less Crime: Lott (1998). 268 In not a single case did the parties even attempt to negotiate: Farnsworth (1999). 269 Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Economics and the
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22. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/1992/09/22/business/lessons-from-a-hurricane-it-pays-not-to-gouge.html. Lott, John R. 1998. More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Lowenstein, Roger. 2000. When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital
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Modigliani, Franco: consumption function of, 94, 95–96, 97, 98, 309 irrelevance theorem of, 164–65 Nobel Prize won by, 163–64 Moore, Michael, 122 More Guns, Less Crime (Lott), 265 Morgenstern, Oskar, 29 mortgage brokers, 77–78 mortgages, 7, 77–79, 252, 345 mugs, 153, 155, 263, 264–66, 264 Mullainathan, Sendhil, 58n
The Boy Who Could Change the World: The Writings of Aaron Swartz
by Aaron Swartz and Lawrence Lessig · 5 Jan 2016 · 377pp · 110,427 words