Paul Samuelson

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description: an American economist, and the first American to win the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences

person

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Derivatives Markets

by David Goldenberg  · 2 Mar 2016  · 819pp  · 181,185 words

would like to thank the giants of the derivatives field including: Louis Bachelier, Fischer Black, John Cox, Darrell Duffie, Jonathan Ingersoll, Kiyoshi Itô, Robert Merton, Paul Samuelson, Myron Scholes, Stephen Ross, Mark Rubinstein, and many others. I sincerely hope that the reader enjoys traveling along the path to understanding Derivatives Markets. David

The Economics Anti-Textbook: A Critical Thinker's Guide to Microeconomics

by Rod Hill and Anthony Myatt  · 15 Mar 2010

beneficial to all. But that consensus has been disturbed by recent arguments by Gomory and Baumol (2000) and Paul Samuelson (2004) that offshoring could produce net economic losses. This created quite a stir, because Paul Samuelson is not your average econ­ omist. Winner of the Nobel Prize in economics in 1970, he wrote much

to now oppose other countries doing the same? 4 Must the long-run gains from all forms of international trade more than offset the losses? Paul Samuelson recently described this view as a ‘popular polemical untruth’. Why? Suggestions for further reading Take a look at ‘Appendix A: The limits of dissent’ in

. … No one can even explain why these events rationally ought to have happened even after they have happened.’ iv Micro near-efficiency and macro inefficiency Paul Samuelson (1998) often remarked that while the stock market is mostly micro efficient, it is macro inefficient. The behavioural research (discussed in Section 2 of this

their jobs, putting downward pressure on wages in rich countries. Increasing returns lead to arbitrary patterns of specialization both within and between countries. Technological change Paul Samuelson (2004) describes what happens to countries’ national incomes if technology changes as a result of local developments. To adapt his analysis to our simple Ricardian

The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions

by Victor Haghani and James White  · 27 Aug 2023  · 314pp  · 122,534 words

in the sub‐field known as “lifetime consumption and portfolio choice,” an area first formulated and explored in the 1960s by Nobel Prize‐winning economists Paul Samuelson and Robert C. Merton. The basic problem addressed is to determine the choices that a person should make with regard to investing, saving, and spending

bit lower than the historical risk and return in excess of T‐bills of the US stock market, but not miles away. 2. Merton, 1969. Paul Samuelson, Merton's mentor, is also credited for his contribution to the development of this formula. 3. Kelly, 1956. 4 A Taste of the Merton Share

to such things. The Fallacy of Large Numbers In a playfully written 1963 article titled “Risk and Uncertainty: A Fallacy of Large Numbers,” MIT economist Paul Samuelson tells the story of offering “some lunch colleagues to bet each $200 to $100 that the side of a coin they specified would not appear

possible outcomes and how likely they are to occur, which in a nutshell is exactly what Expected Utility is designed to do. As MIT economist Paul Samuelson put it: “No slave can serve two independent masters. If one is an Expected Utility maximizer, he cannot generally be a maximizer of the probability

. —John Stuart Mill This Isn't How Ordinary People Make Decisions Maximizing Expected Utility was put forward by modern economists such as Milton Friedman and Paul Samuelson as both a descriptive and normative model of decision‐making. It was hoped that many micro‐ and macroeconomic phenomena could be modeled using Expected Utility

sizing strategies too. This rebuttal was presented in “Why we should not make mean log of wealth big though years to act are long” by Paul Samuelson (1979), which he famously wrote using only words of one syllable. The Long Run Is Very Long One of the statements put forward by advocates

but uncertain personal longevity. The Merton‐Samuelson “Lifetime Consumption and Portfolio Choice” Framework In 1969, twenty‐five‐year‐old Robert C. Merton and his mentor Paul Samuelson separately published the first solutions to the lifetime spending and investing policy problem that met the five desirable characteristics we just listed. Remarkably, this was

most popularly linked to the efficient market hypothesis, his work built upon that of many predecessors from Louis Bachelier (1900) to Friedrich Hayek (1945) to Paul Samuelson (1965). 7. APT was introduced by Ross (1976), but Robert C. Merton (1973) proposed the first multi‐factor, intertemporal extension of CAPM. 8. Treynor, 1961

Samuelson Friedman: The Battle Over the Free Market

by Nicholas Wapshott  · 2 Aug 2021  · 453pp  · 122,586 words

.Capitalism Teeters ACKNOWLEDGMENTS NOTES SELECT BIBLIOGRAPHY INDEX SAMUELSON FRIEDMAN 1 The Land of Oz Newsweek changes hands and the new editor, eager for controversy, pits Paul Samuelson against Milton Friedman. As stagflation bites, Keynesianism is put to the test Vincent Astor,1 the reclusive head of the American branch of the New

humble beginnings in Gary, Indiana, Samuelson’s precocious ability at math leads him to be taught by the free-market economists of the Chicago School Paul Samuelson and Milton Friedman were similar in many ways. Both were born Jewish, both married fellow members of their university class, both achieved their first degrees

significant: in the fall of 1932, in the recently completed Social Science Research Building at the University of Chicago, he met for the first time Paul Samuelson, who, although three years younger, was, thanks to his precocity, a year above Friedman at Chicago. Friedman had been made aware of Samuelson’s evident

noted by Newsweek editor Osborn Elliott, who was looking for a lively, argumentative, provocative conservative economist to counter the views of his new Keynesian hire, Paul Samuelson. And so it was that Friedman entered the ring with Samuelson to continue an intellectual duel that had begun in England in 1931 between Keynes

. “The layman has a vision of economists as a quarrelsome tribe who never agree,” wrote Friedman. There is an element of validity in this vision. Paul Samuelson and I, for example, disagree frequently, strongly and publicly on matters of public policy. … Disagreement among economists on public policy seldom reflects a difference in

smart enough to apply his monetarist fix for Inflation. But Nixon was only interested in reelection When asked to join John F. Kennedy’s administration, Paul Samuelson had politely declined the invitation, preferring to keep a distance from government and concentrate upon maintaining the place he had carved for himself as America

, avoiding the big picture argument and concentrating instead on Samuelson’s suggestion that Friedman’s predictions were always too pessimistic. “I cannot justify or excuse Paul Samuelson’s masochistic instincts,” Friedman told the committee, “but I would like to correct his statement about my predictions. It so happens that his statement is

Rose Friedman recalled that when the first Nobel for economics was mooted, “two names appeared in every newspaper story or conversation about the coming award—Paul Samuelson and Milton Friedman.” When there was speculation about who would win the second economics Nobel, Rose Friedman recalled, “the two names most often mentioned remained

. Friedman opened his Newsweek column in November 1970 with a paean of praise to his old friend and opponent. “The readers of this space know Paul Samuelson as a witty, informed and often acerbic commentator on current affairs, as a ‘liberal’ supporter of the economic policies of the Kennedy and Johnson years

“in sharp contrast to the favorable comments on the Soviet Union at about the same time by such prominent intellectuals as John Kenneth Galbraith and Paul Samuelson.”65 As he had argued in Capitalism and Freedom, “The great tragedy of the drive to centralization, as of the drive to extend the scope

greater reliance on individual responsibility” and “one of the 20th century’s leading economic scholars, on a par with giants like John Maynard Keynes and Paul Samuelson.”15 Sam Brittan, in the Financial Times, paid tribute to Friedman’s bluntness and nerve. “Part of his appeal lay in his willingness to come

a sea of progressives on Stanford’s campus that had welcomed him as a towering figure in conservative/libertarian economics after his retirement from Chicago. PAUL SAMUELSON died at his home in Belmont, Massachusetts, on December 13, 2009, aged ninety-four. He had been suffering from high blood pressure for years and

the debate ever since. Forty years after Keynes and Hayek reached an uneasy truce, the argument was still going on, but with two new champions, Paul Samuelson, from MIT, and Milton Friedman, from the University of Chicago. For this story of the lifelong friendship and disagreements between these two towering figures, I

the text are mine and mine alone. Grateful thanks are due, too, to John Aslet for his research. A special thank you is due to Paul Samuelson’s stepdaughter, Jane Samuelson; his son, William Samuelson; and Milton Friedman’s daughter, Janet Martel, for allowing me to quote from their fathers’ correspondence and

. Barnett, University of Kansas, December 23, 2003. 2.Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) 150 Oral History project, July 19, 2007. https://infinitehistory.mit.edu/video/paul-samuelson. 3.As first cousins, they were obliged to move from Chicago, where the marriage of first cousins was illegal, first to Wisconsin, then Indiana, where

it wasn’t. 4.MIT 150 Oral History project, July 19, 2007. https://infinitehistory.mit.edu/video/paul-samuelson. 5.Ibid. 6.MIT150 Oral History project. https://infinitehistory.mit.edu/video/paul-samuelson. 7.Karen Ilse Horn, Roads to Wisdom, Conversations with Ten Nobel Laureates in Economics (Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, England, 2009

), p. 43. 8.MIT150 Oral History project. https://infinitehistory.mit.edu/video/paul-samuelson. 9.Ibid. 10.His father owned a set of Harvard Classics—the most important books in the Western canon—included one of the founding works

, 1766–December 29, 1834), English cleric who studied the influence of demographics on economics. 12.MIT 150 Oral History project. https://infinitehistory.mit.edu/video/paul-samuelson. 13.Aaron Director (September 21, 1901–September 11, 2004), a professor at the University of Chicago Law School who played a central role in the

opinions he did not agree with, simply to “fruitfully” counter Friedman’s right-wing views. 22.MIT Oral History project. https://infinitehistory.mit.edu/video/paul-samuelson. 23.Obituary of Samuelson, New York Times, December 14, 2009. 24.Horn, Roads to Wisdom, p. 47. 25.David C. Colander and Harry Landreth, The

the 1930s and popularizing the ideas in Keynes’s The General Theory. 32.MIT Oral History project, July 19, 2007. https://infinitehistory.mit.edu/video/paul-samuelson. 33.Paul A. Samuelson and William A. Barnett (eds.), Inside the Economist’s Mind: The History of Modern Economic Thought, as Explained by Those Who

.Edwin Bidwell Wilson (April 25, 1879–December 28, 1964), Yale and Harvard mathematician and polymath. 38.MIT Oral History project. https://infinitehistory.mit.edu/video/paul-samuelson. 39.Ibid. 40.Ibid. 41.Lorie Tarshis (March 22, 1911–October 4, 1993). For a full account of the incident, see http://community.middlebury.edu

Enchanted Forest,” New York Times, October 12, 1986. 45.Samuelson, Nobel Economists Lecture Series, Trinity University, San Antonio, February 1985. 46.David Warsh, “The Rivals: Paul Samuelson and Milton Friedman arrive at the University of Chicago in 1932,” Economic Principals blog, July 12, 2015. http://www.economicprincipals.com/issues/2015.07.12

1956; U.S. ambassador to the Soviet Union; and U.S. ambassador to Britain. 50.MIT 150 Oral History project. https://infinitehistory.mit.edu/video/paul-samuelson. 51.Walt Whitman Rostow, aka Walt Rostow or W. W. Rostow (October 7, 1916–February 13, 2003), American economist and political theorist who helped formulate

. 54.Ibid. 55.Quoted in New York Times obituary of Samuelson, December 14, 2009. 56.MIT 150 Oral History project. https://infinitehistory.mit.edu/video/paul-samuelson 57.Samuelson said at a talk at Claremont Graduate University, Calif., in January 1991 that he had been advised to float the dollar by Nicholas

, helped Hayek with his use of English in the duel-by-learned-journal against Keynes. 58.MIT Oral History project. https://infinitehistory.mit.edu/video/paul-samuelson. file:///Users/nicholaswapshott/Downloads/Paul%20A.%20Samuelson.pdf. 59.Lawrence Henry “Larry” Summers (November 30, 1954–), whose father, Robert Summers, (who changed his name from

Samuelson to Summers) is Paul Samuelson’s brother. President Emeritus and Charles W. Eliot University Professor of Harvard University. Former chief economist of the World Bank (1991–1993); Undersecretary of the

II. It was presided over and adjudicated by Keynes. 58.Friedman and Friedman, Two Lucky People, p. 248. 59.Ibid., p. 249. 60.Rupert Cornwell, “Paul Samuelson: Nobel Prize-winner widely regarded as the most important economist of the 20th century,” The Independent, December 16, 2009. 61.Conor Clarke, “An Interview with

Paul Samuelson,” The Atlantic, June 17, 2009. 62.Michael M. Weinstein, “Paul A. Samuelson, Economist, Dies at 94,” New York Times, December 13, 2009. 63.John Cassidy

Samuelson by William A. Barnett, University of Kansas, December 23, 2003. 4.Friedman, Newsweek, November 9, 1970, p. 80. http://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/objects/56682/paul-samuelson?ctx=e20bfa6d-28ba-45c5-af74-e7802e94570f&idx=19. 5.Samuelson, The Samuelson Sampler, p. vii. 6.Ibid., November 1967, p. 39. 7.Ibid., January 1967

of the Counter-Establishment, p. 89. 19.John Davenport, “The Radical Economics of Milton Friedman,” Fortune, June 1, 1967. 20.Conor Clarke, “An Interview with Paul Samuelson,” The Atlantic, June 17, 2009. 21.Robert Merton Solow (August 23, 1924–), 1987 Nobel Prize–winning economist and MIT professor since 1949. 22.Solow quoted

newly rich to save compared to greater saving by the “old moneyed” who had enjoyed wealth for a long time. 10.Ibid., p. 272. 11.Paul Samuelson, contribution to a 1958 symposium sponsored by the Committee for Economic Development. 12.Friedman and Friedman, Two Lucky People, p. 341. 13.Time, December 31

, May 17, 1966. Hoover Institution Friedman archive. 17.Letter from Friedman to Samuelson, May 11, 1987. Duke Samuelson archive. 18.Mark Skousen, “The Perseverance of Paul Samuelson’s Economics,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 11, no. 2, Spring 1997, pp. 137–52. 19.Interview with Friedman, quoted in Mark Skousen, “My Friendly

for suggesting that Samuelson had coined the word. “[Krugman] erroneously suggests that the term ‘stagflation,’ which originated in the UK in 1965, was coined by Paul Samuelson after 1967,” she wrote in a March 29, 2007 response to Krugman’s “Who Was Milton Friedman?” in the New York Review of Books, February

enemy list it raised the prestige of myself within my own family and in my circle.” MIT 150 Oral History. https://infinitehistory.mit.edu/video/paul-samuelson. 44.“How the Slump Looks to Three Experts” Newsweek, May 25, 1970, pp. 78–79. 45.Samuelson, “Coping with Stagflation,” Newsweek, August 19, 1974. 46

Friedman, Two Lucky People, p. 591. 12.Friedman and Friedman, Two Lucky People, p. 400. 13.MIT 150 Oral History. https://infinitehistory.mit.edu/video/paul-samuelson. 14.Nobel Prize Paul A. Samuelson Facts. https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1970/samuelson/facts/. 15.Quoted in Friedman and Friedman, Two Lucky

, 2006. 33.Ibid. 34.“Milton Friedman: Why the Euro is a Big Mistake,” Scotland on Sunday, August 18, 2002. 35.Conor Clarke, “An Interview with Paul Samuelson,” The Atlantic, June 17, 2009. 36.Letter from Samuelson to Benjamin M. Friedman, March 10, 2008. Duke Samuelson archive. CHAPTER 16: ALL GOING SWIMMINGLY 1

National Economists Club, Washington, D.C., November 21, 2002. https://www.federalreserve.gov/boardDocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm. 5.Conor Clarke, “An interview with Paul Samuelson,” The Atlantic, June 17, 2009. 6.Interview with Samuelson, Wall Street Journal, March 2009. 7.Interview with Samuelson by William A. Barnett, University of Kansas

, vol. 31, no. 3, Fall 2011. 26.Samuelson, “Economic Policy is an Art,” New York Times, October 30, 1970. 27.Conor Clarke, “An Interview with Paul Samuelson,” The Atlantic, June 17, 2009. 28.Letter from Samuelson to Robin McElheny, associate director of the Harvard University Archives, November 9, 2006. Duke Samuelson archive

to Robert L. Byrd, December 14 2005. Duke Samuelson archive. 36.Michael M. Weinstein, Samuelson obituary, New York Times, December 13, 2009. 37.Paul Krugman, “Paul Samuelson, RIP,” New York Times, December 13, 2009. 38.The Economist, December 17, 2009. 39.Obituary, Daily Telegraph, December 14, 2009. 40.Chinese statistics, particularly economic

Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street

by Peter L. Bernstein  · 19 Jun 2005  · 425pp  · 122,223 words

it describes: Fischer Black, Eugene Fama, William Fouse, Hayne Leland, Harry Markowitz, John McQuown, Robert C. Merton, Merton Miller, Franco Modigliani, Barr Rosenberg, Mark Rubinstein, Paul Samuelson, Myron Scholes, William Sharpe, James Tobin, Jack Treynor, and James Vertin. Each of them spent long periods of time with me in interviews, and most

the subject matter well beyond the chapters that were their immediate concern. In this regard, I hope I may be forgiven if I single out Paul Samuelson, my friend of more than fifty years. He served uncomplainingly as my mentor, inspiration, and inexhaustible research associate from the very beginning; the accumulation of

, PC&I. 8. Judson (1979). 9. Gould (1991). 10. Vertin (1974). PART I Setting the Scene Chapter 1 Are Stock Prices Predictable? It is doubtful. Paul Samuelson, economist and Nobel laureate, once remarked that it is not easy to get rich in Las Vegas, at Churchill Downs, or at the local Merrill

book by Bachelier, published in 1914, on speculation and investment. Fascinated, he sent postcards to his economist friends, asking “Ever heard of this guy?”18 Paul Samuelson, who was just then beginning to explore theories of market behavior and valuation on his own, could not find the book in the MIT library

professionals never had a chance to begin with. The 1934 study was the work of Holbrook Working of Stanford. Working was hardly a dynamic personality. Paul Samuelson, who classes Working among the greats, described him to me as “a dry stick . . . not a sparkling expositor”3 and recalled seeing Holbrook, his economist

qualify the neat theorems in the economics textbooks to fit the realities of the financial markets. Fortunately, the right man showed up for the job: Paul Samuelson of MIT, whom a student once described as “a human mainframe.” So compelling were the prospects of a theory of capital markets—and the impact

work from 1937 to 1986, run to five volumes. They include 388 articles filling 4,665 pages—and a sixth volume is on its way. Paul Samuelson and Modern Economic Theory, a celebration of his contribution to economic theory written in 1983 by his contemporaries, extols his accomplishments in ten fields of

with Chicago colleagues during the 1960s. ••• Fama found one aspect of the Chicago environment especially congenial. Unlike the more theory-oriented atmosphere at MIT, where Paul Samuelson had developed his ideas about speculative prices, Chicago attracted scholars who were keenly interested in collecting facts—an activity that appealed to Fama. At the

pleased, until they realized that the huge pile of spools would fill the room the faculty used for their daily coffee breaks. No thanks! When Paul Samuelson told me this story, he commented, “Finding any information on that tape would have been more difficult than writing the full text of the Encyclopedia

with 20 straight winning flips.”22 But what about the Buffets, Baruchs, Grahams, Neffs, and Lynches? Are they in the same class as the orangutans? Paul Samuelson admits that such market geniuses must exist, even in a totally efficient market: “It is not ordered in heaven, or by the second law of

difference. Even in the catastrophic market of 1929–1932, when the average stock fell by 90 percent, Scott Paper and Minnesota Mining rose in price. Paul Samuelson and his cohorts consider questions like these a waste of time, because theory demonstrates that stocks will sell for what they are worth.a If

were already taking into account:—time, interest rates, the current price of the stock, and the exercise price specified in the option contract. I saw Paul Samuelson once in a while on social occasions, but I was unaware that he, as usual, had started another ball rolling with a paper published in

1968, MIT was the only graduate school that would accept Robert Merton, now of Harvard Business School, when he decided to abandon math for economics. Paul Samuelson immediately selected Merton as an assistant and collaborator and stimulated his interest in option pricing. Merton was also an active participant with Black and Scholes

two issues contained articles by Sharpe on risk and performance measurement, by Fischer Black on the random walk, by James Lorie on diversification, and by Paul Samuelson on efficient markets. I invited James Vertin to contribute the lead article in the first issue, because I knew he would come on strong. “The

offering many varieties of risk control. Franco Modigliani and Merton Miller emphasized the critical role played by arbitrage in determining the value of securities. And Paul Samuelson and Eugene Fama were there to remind investors that, in an unpredictable market, they had better not venture forth unprepared. Preparation for unpredictable situations is

Williams’s book during a quiet afternoon in the library at the University of Chicago. James Tobin freely admits to being an “ivory tower economist.” Paul Samuelson, for whom finance serves as Sunday painting, is ambivalent over whether he has found something trivially obvious or dramatically sweeping. William Sharpe survives an abrasive

of investing that caught their fancy. It was the purity of the free market dynamics, the best that the study of economics can offer. Remember Paul Samuelson’s reaction when he heard about Kendall’s Demon of Chance: “Work the other side of the street! The nonpredictability of future prices from past

Corporate Debt: the Risk Structure of Interest Rates.” Journal of Finance, Vol. XXIX, No. 2 (May), pp. 449–470. Merton, Robert C. 1983. “Paul Samuelson’s Financial Economics.” In Paul Samuelson and Modern Economic Theory, Cary E. Brown and Robert M. Solow, eds. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company. Merton, Robert C. 1988. Personal

. 15, pp. 1–42. Samuelson, Paul A. 1974. “Challenge to Judgment.” Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. I (Fall), pp. 17–19. Samuelson, Paul A. 1983. Paul Samuelson and Modern Economic Theory, Cary E. Brown and Robert M. Solow, eds. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company. Samuelson, Paul A. 1986a. “Economics in My

implicit out-of-the-money/in-the-money pricing formulas put valuation Options markets over-the-counter Pacific Stock Exchange Paul A. Samuelson: Critical Reassessments Paul Samuelson and Modern Economic Theory Pension funds corporate performance evaluation stock holdings Performance analysis Performance measurement Performance quotient (P.Q.) Personal trusts Philadelphia Stock Exchange Polaroid

Capital Ideas Evolving

by Peter L. Bernstein  · 3 May 2007

new way of thinking about the nature of financial markets, the theory of investing, and the role of an uncertain future in all investment decisions. Paul Samuelson has used colorful language to describe this process: “Markowitz-Sharpe-Tobin quadratic programming in terms of portfolio means and variances is a powerful approximation that

Ideas by the proponents of Behavioral Finance—and especially on the idea of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The next chapter describes the current views of Paul Samuelson, one of the great sages about market behavior and portfolio formation. Samuelson takes a dim view of efforts to outperform the returns of the market

time horizons are much shorter, skilled investors often act so rapidly that they spoil the situation for one another as opportunities disappear almost instantly. As Paul Samuelson has put it, “No easy pickings, no sure-thing gains.” That is why Fuller & Thaler seek opportunity in the smaller-capitalizations. Pickings are easier and

of their zest, none of their fascination with innovation, none of their sense of the compelling importance of the work they are doing. Except for Paul Samuelson (who is now over ninety years old and has earned the right to observe rather than act), all these men are occupied—and on occasion

_c03.qxd 38 3/23/07 9:01 AM Page 38 THE THEORETICIANS equilibrium and toward the kinds of relationships and responses predicted by theory.*  Paul Samuelson is the theorist with the longest perspective. To interview him for this book, I went to visit with him in the same office where he

out their betting on horse and dog racing, or buying lottery tickets, or attending bingo sessions.” And * On a personal note, I f irst met Paul Samuelson about the time this paper appeared. Then in his early twenties, Samuelson had already made his reputation by having published more papers than he was

the end of 2000. Boom-and-bust is not part of Capital Ideas, but Capital Ideas are still a part of Shiller’s analytical framework. Paul Samuelson’s handiwork runs through it all. bern_c03.qxd 3/23/07 9:01 AM Page 44 bern_c04.qxd 3/23/07 9:02

of the Cowles Foundation at Yale looks much too young to have earned his Ph.D. at MIT over thirty years ago, while working with Paul Samuelson and Franco Modigliani. During those thirty years, he has managed to publish over 200 papers and five books, including the worldwide best seller, Irrational Exuberance

. bern_c06.qxd 3/23/07 9:03 AM Page 73 Robert Shiller 73 The motivation for Shiller’s analysis was a view expressed by Paul Samuelson some years ago in a letter to Shiller and cited by Shiller in the second edition of his Irrational Exuberance (p. 243):5 Modern markets

-acquainted with major institutional investors addicted to short-term opportunities and fearful and impatient when offered investments that take longer to pay off. Echoing what Paul Samuelson has to say on this subject, Grantham explained this bias in a letter to his clients, “Very long time horizons are fine in theory, but

idiots,” he argues, “but they are a long way from hyperrational automatons.” bern_bins.qxd 3/23/07 10:44 AM Page 2 In 1969, Paul Samuelson won the first Nobel Prize in Economics. In Capital Ideas, he describes the stock market as “no easy pickings.” He goes even further today: “A

Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century Economist

by Kate Raworth  · 22 Mar 2017  · 403pp  · 111,119 words

many problems of pure theory, which no one who has once learnt to use diagrams will willingly handle in any other way.’29 It was Paul Samuelson, however, who decisively placed imagery at the heart of economic thought in the second half of the twentieth century. Known as the father of modern

and replace it with scientific precision. He wrote his second book, however, for an utterly different audience, and only thanks to a twist of fate. Paul Samuelson: the man who drew economics. At the end of the Second World War, US college enrolments ballooned as hundreds of thousands of ex-servicemen returned

1948 Circular Flow diagram, which depicted income flowing round the economy as if it were water flowing round plumbed pipes. A long struggle of escape Paul Samuelson was not alone in appreciating the extraordinary influence wielded by those who determine how we begin. His teacher and mentor, Joseph Schumpeter, also realised that

our words even if we have never seen them with our eyes. But at the same time, as an economic novice, consider yourself lucky that Paul Samuelson never got that first lick of your tabula rasa. The fact that you have never sat through an economics lecture may just turn out to

wonder we have so willingly accepted that economic success must also lie in an ever-rising national income. It fits with the deep belief, as Paul Samuelson put it in his textbook, that ‘even if more material goods are not themselves most important, nevertheless, a society is happier when it is moving

opening pages of the textbooks. Instead, the key characters are tacitly named through the most iconic diagram in macroeconomics, the Circular Flow. First drawn by Paul Samuelson, it was originally devised simply to illustrate how income flows round the economy. But it quickly came to define the economy itself, determining which economic

. But that aim gradually morphed into a hard push for market fundamentalism, and the meaning of ‘neoliberal’ morphed along with it. What’s more, when Paul Samuelson’s diagram appeared – depicting which actors were at the heart of the economy and which were pushed into the wings – it provided the perfect setting

style – loads the plot from the get-go. Economics: the twentieth-century neoliberal story (in which we go to the brink of collapse) Staging by Paul Samuelson Script by the Mont Pelerin Society Cast, in order of appearance: THE MARKET, which is efficient – so give it free rein. As Adam Smith famously

fewer than one billion people alive and, in dollar terms, the size of the global economy was 300 times smaller than it is today. When Paul Samuelson published Economics in 1948 there were not yet three billion people on Earth and the global economy was still ten times smaller than it is

the state to a non-speaking part in the economic play: mentioned in the storyline, seen fleetingly on stage, but permitted little action. His rival, Paul Samuelson, strongly disagreed with that view. ‘The creative role of government in economic life is vast and inescapable in an interdependent and crowded world,’ he wrote

the very theories that they had helped to legitimise. Robert Solow, known as the father of neoclassical economic growth theory and long-time collaborator of Paul Samuelson, became an outspoken critic, first in his 2003 speech bluntly entitled ‘Dumb and Dumber in Macroeconomics’, then in analyses that mocked the theory’s stringent

’t just want to talk about the narrowness of the current teaching, we want to change it.’ Her words made me recall just how much Paul Samuelson relished being the one who got to define what is and is not seen as good economics. Remember his gleeful claim as textbook author knowing

) Economics: An Introductory Analysis, 1st edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.p. 264, cited in Giraud, Y. (2010) ‘The changing place of visual representation in economics: Paul Samuelson between principle and strategy, 1941–1955’, Journal of the History of Economic Thought 32: 2, pp. 1–23. 33. Frost, G. (2009) Nobel-winning economist

. (1906) The Natural Economic Order, https://www.community-exchange.org/docs/Gesell/en/neo/ Giraud, Y. (2010) ‘The changing place of visual representation in economics: Paul Samuelson between principle and strategy, 1941–1955’, Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 32: pp. 175–197. Gneezy, U. and Rustichini, A. (2000) ‘A fine

Big Three in Economics: Adam Smith, Karl Marx, and John Maynard Keynes

by Mark Skousen  · 22 Dec 2006  · 330pp  · 77,729 words

, his children, his mistress and his friends—with a ruthlessness which was all the more terrible because it was deliberate and calculating" (Payne 1968, 12). Paul Samuelson adds, "Marx was a gentle father and husband; he was also a prickly, brusque, egotistical boor" (Samuelson 1967b, 616). In sum, Marx ranted about the

industrial nations have seen a dramatic rise in the standard of living of the average worker. The middle class has not disappeared, but expanded. As Paul Samuelson concludes, "The immiserization of the working class . . . simply never took place. As a prophet Marx was colossally unlucky and his system colossally useless" (1967, 622

, Engels announced that no one had succeeded7 (Rothbard 1995b, 413). Eugen Bohm-Bawerk jumped on this singular failure in Marxian economics; in the words of Paul Samuelson, "make no mistake about it, Bohm-Bawerk is perfectly right in insisting that volume III of Capital never does make good the promise to reconcile

population" (Mises 1972, 89). The evidence is overwhelming that increasing labor productivity (output per man-hour) leads to higher wages. To sum up Marxist economics, Paul Samuelson years ago concluded that almost nothing in the economics of classical Marxism survives analysis (Samuelson 1957). And Jonathan Wolff, a British professor sympathetic to Marxist

capitalist system and all forms of exploitation and oppression while helping to construct a progressive social policy and create socialist alternatives" (URPE website). By 1976, Paul Samuelson reported that at least 10 percent of the profession consisted of Marxist-style economists. Although Marxism has had a far greater influence in sociology, political

efficiency, justice, economic waste, and the political process in the economy. Since the late 1930s, when welfare economics was popularized by John Hicks, Kenneth Arrow, Paul Samuelson, and Ronald Coase (all of whom became Nobel Prize winners), the technique of welfare economics has been extended to issues of monopoly and government policies

seemed to vindicate the benefits of deficit spending and massive government spending. It wasn't long before college professors, under the tutorage of Alvin Hansen, Paul Samuelson, Lawrence Klein, and other Keynesian disciples, began teaching students about the consumption function, the multiplier, the marginal propensity to consume, the paradox of thrift, aggregate

study of economic aggregates such as the price level, the money supply, and Gross Domestic Product, and "microeconomics," the theory of individual and firm behavior. Paul Samuelson, who did not use the term in the first edition of his textbook, Economics (1948), says the distinction between "micro" and "macro" goes back to

all the rubbish that is down there, and it would need an extraordinarily clever dog to dive down and fish her up again" (183). Even Paul Samuelson, a devote Keynesian, declared, "It is a badly written book, poorly organized; any layman who, beguiled by the author's previous reputation, bought the book

meat" (Krugman 2006). The General Theory is still in print, but only because of the elucidating work of Keynes's disciples, especially Alvin Hansen and Paul Samuelson, who deciphered Keynes's convoluted jargon, translated it into plain English, and transformed the profession. Keynes at War Keynes was fifty-two when he completed

condition of sub-normal activity for a considerable period without any marked tendency either toward recovery or toward complete collapse" (1973 a [1936], 249, 30). Paul Samuelson correctly understood the meaning of Keynes: "With respect to the level of total purchasing power and employment, Keynes denies that there is an invisible hand

46 percent by 1944, while unemployment reached the incredible low of 1.2 percent of the civilian labor force" (Lipsey, Steiner, and Purvis 1987, 573). Paul Samuelson Raises the Keynesian Cross As noted earlier, Keynes died in 1946, right after the war. It would be left to his disciples to lead the

charge and create a "new economics." Fortunately for Keynes, a young wunderkind was ready to till his shoes. His name was Paul Samuelson, and he would write a textbook that would dominate the profession for more than an entire generation. The year was 1948, one of those watershed

exciting new breakthrough textbook came forth from Harvard's neighboring university, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Written by the "brash whip-persnapper go-getter" Paul Samuelson (his own words!), Economics was destined to become the most successful textbook ever published in any field. Sixteen editions have sold more than 4 million

Economic Maturity (1945) and then soundly disproved by a vibrant recovery after World Warn. The stigma of this unfulfilled prediction haunted Hansen throughout his life. Paul Samuelson, under the Hansen stagnation spell, almost suffered the same fate. In 1943, he wrote an article warning that unless the government acted vigorously after the

: Samuelson (1948: 259). Reprinted by permission of McGraw-Hill. Samuelson's Goal: To Raise the Keynesian Cross Atop a New House of Economics What was Paul Samuelson trying to achieve? There is no real Samuelson school of economics; he considers himself "the last generalist in aponomics." (But what about Kenneth Boulding?) The

from the profession. Friedman earned his Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University; he won the highly prestigious John Bates Clark Medal two years after Paul Samuelson won it; and he taught economics at one of the premier institutions in the country, the University of Chicago. In 1967, he was elected president

Intelligence Agency (CIA) that Soviet-style socialist planning had produced high levels of economic growth, even exceeding that experienced by market economies in the West. Paul Samuelson was one who became convinced of Soviet economic superiority. By the fifth edition of his Economics textbook, Samuelson began including a graph indicating that the

a sea change in economics, and this coming from Cambridge, Massachusetts, the same place the Keynesian revolution originated in America. Samuelson: Fiscal Policy Dethroned! Even Paul Samuelson has been forced to change his focus in recent editions of his text, in part because of the force of history, in part due to

Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street

by William Poundstone  · 18 Sep 2006  · 389pp  · 109,207 words

Whore • The Kelly Criterion, Under the Hood • Las Vegas • The First Sure Winner in History • Deuce-Dealing Dottie • Bicycle Built for Two PART THREE: ARBITRAGE Paul Samuelson • The Random Walk Cosa Nostra • This Is Not the Time to Buy Stocks • IPO • Bet Your Beliefs • Beat the Market • James Regan • Resorts International • Michael

sciences and mathematics at MIT. Almost from his arrival, “Shannon became less active in appearances and in announcing new results,” recalled MIT’s famed economist Paul Samuelson. In fact Shannon taught at MIT for only a few semesters. “Claude’s vision of teaching was to give a series of talks on research

of the greatest minds of the twentieth century had all but stopped doing research—to play with toys. “Some wondered whether he was depressed,” said Paul Samuelson. Others saw it as part of an almost pathologically self-effacing personality. “One unfamiliar with the man might easily assume that anyone who had made

an incidental connection to a movie he never saw—and for the gambling formula that would carry his name on to posterity. PART THREE Arbitrage Paul Samuelson PAUL SAMUELSON LOVED HARVARD. The love was not entirely requited. By the age of twenty-five, Samuelson had published more journal articles than his age. This distinction

market. There is no way to achieve consistently better-than-market returns. No one raised criticism of the opposing view to a higher art than Paul Samuelson. His most famous rant, published in the first issue of the Journal of Portfolio Management (1974), runs in part: A respect for evidence compels me

investing. The titles included Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern’s Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, and Paul Samuelson’s Economics, as well as books with a more practical focus on investment. One book Shannon singled out as a favorite was Fred Schwed’s

who somehow develop a knack for risk-corrected excess total return do become rich very quickly and do reveal that in their observable life style,” Paul Samuelson told me. “I do not remember any gossip at the MIT watercoolers that the Shannons had levitated out of the academic class.” Others suspected that

of stock market systems for sale. An ad in Barron’s caught his eye. It was for a company called RHM Warrant Service. The service Paul Samuelson had subscribed to was still in business. It was run by a certain Sidney Fried who claimed it was possible to buy warrants for pennies

drew an arrow pointing to the phrase “the stock market” and added the question “Have you continued attacking it? And how have you made out?” Paul Samuelson coined the term “PQ,” or performance quotient. Like IQ, this supposedly measures a portfolio manager’s ability. A PQ of 100 is average. The question

books of advice for the small investor that come out every year, the book received little notice from most academics. One exception was the prolific Paul Samuelson. He reviewed the book for the Journal of the American Statistical Association. “Just as astronomers loathe astrology,” Samuelson began unpromisingly, “scientists rightly resent vulgarization of

Milken’s private accounts. Robert C. Merton THE ACADEMIC WORLD was starting to show interest in warrants and options. One of the key figures was Paul Samuelson’s most brilliant protégé, Robert C. Merton. Merton was the son of a famous Columbia University sociologist, Robert K. Merton. The elder Merton was known

wager makes an appearance in von Neumann and Morgenstern’s Theory of Games and Economic Behavior and in papers by Kenneth Arrow, Milton Friedman, and Paul Samuelson. The paradox can be resolved easily by noting that Peter would have to possess infinite wealth to make good on the game’s potential payouts

is still absurd because he’s likely to win the utile equivalent of chump change. What should we make of all this? Perhaps not much. Paul Samuelson believed that the supercharged versions of the St. Petersburg paradox do not “hold any terrors for the economist.” The nub of the issue is that

mid-1960s, Shannon began holding regular meetings at MIT on the subject of scientific investing. These were attended by an eclectic assortment of people, including Paul Samuelson. Shannon gave a couple of talks on investing at MIT, circa 1966 and 1971. By then the broad MIT community had heard stories of Shannon

least as much energy to run his brain as he can produce by sorting. Maxwell’s demon is only redistributing entropy and energy. In 1974 Paul Samuelson wrote that a high-PQ trader “is in effect possessed of a ‘Maxwell’s Demon’ who tells him how to make capital gains from his

your utility function is. So Savage appeared to say. There the matter rested for ten years. “Our analysis enables us to dispel a fallacy,” wrote Paul Samuelson in 1969, that has been borrowed into portfolio theory from information theory of the Shannon type. Associated with independent discoveries by J. B. Williams, John

the case with regard to the geometric mean rule for long-run portfolio selection—and this despite the fact that no less an authority than Paul Samuelson had debunked it.” “As far as I know,” countered Latané (1978), by then an elderly economist at the University of North Carolina, neither Samuelson nor

handle flealike jumps, for they cannot be described solely by the two numbers Markowitz theory uses. My Alien Cousin IN 1988, OUT OF THE BLUE, Paul Samuelson wrote a letter to Stanford information theorist Thomas Cover. Samuelson had been sent one of Cover’s papers on portfolio theory for review. “If I

any profit. LTCM’s strategy was to use leverage to multiply these small profit opportunities to the point where they were big enough to matter. Paul Samuelson said he had doubts about LTCM when he first heard of it. It appeared that the fund was placing a lot of faith in the

Kelly criterion should replace the Markowitz criterion”: Thorp 1969, 292. Samuelson attended regular meetings on investing organized by Shannon: Betty Shannon and Thomas Cover, interviews; Paul Samuelson, personal letter, June 28, 2004. Cover was under the impression (from speaking with Claude) that these meetings were at the Shannon home. Betty said they

). “Risk and Uncertainty: A Fallacy of Large Numbers.” Scientia, Apr.–May 1963. Also no. 16 in Collected Scientific Papers. ———(1966). The Collected Scientific Papers of Paul Samuelson. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press. ———(1967). “General Proof That Diversification Pays.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Mar. 1967, 1–13. ———(1968). “Beat the Market: A

). “Why We Should Not Make Mean Log of Wealth Big Though Years to Act Are Long.” Journal of Banking and Finance 3:305–307. ———(1983). Paul Samuelson and Modern Economic Theory. Eds. Cary E. Brown and Robert M. Solow. New York: McGraw-Hill. Savage, Leonard J. (1954). The Foundations of Statistics. New

The Rise of the Quants: Marschak, Sharpe, Black, Scholes and Merton

by Colin Read  · 16 Jul 2012  · 206pp  · 70,924 words

minds Fischer Black and Myron Scholes, we knew little about how to price such financial derivatives. Meanwhile, Robert Merton, a disciple of the great mind Paul Samuelson, was rapidly extending the relatively static models of finance to a dynamic context that more effectively included time. In creating dynamic models of finance, he

pursue a research agenda as he saw fit. As a Harvard fellow, he followed in the footsteps The Early Years 51 of the great mind Paul Samuelson, who is documented in the fourth book of this series. Following his fellowship, Lintner was offered an assistant professorship in business administration at Harvard Business

role in futures securities trading vis-à-vis options than they do today. This explains why pioneering work by scholars such as the great mind Paul Samuelson initially studied warrants rather than options in the mid-1960s. A new exchange The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) is the world’s oldest futures

the random walk more fully. For now, though, we will discuss his remarkable derivation of the first options pricing formula. Much to the credit of Paul Samuelson, who popularized Bachelier’s work, we now have a better appreciation of the role Bachelier played in defining the options pricing model and anticipating the

of time discounting to the problem and modified Sprenkle’s result only slightly: C(S,T) ⫽ SN(d1) ⫺ Ke⫺␳TN(d2). Independently of these analyses, Paul Samuelson published in 1965 some results relating to his exploration of warrant pricing. His derivation represented a hybrid between both Sprenkles and Bonness. He found that

Theory There has perhaps been no other time in the history of economics and finance when a new financial theory was more timely and influential. Paul Samuelson and others had been working on the options and warrants issue in the 1960s, but the topic seemed to have little pressing need. However, by

-1980s, the business and the economics school at MIT housed Myron Scholes and Fischer Black, Stewart Myers, John Cox, Chi-fu Huang, Stanley Fischer and Paul Samuelson, four of whom would win the Nobel Prize in Economics. The MIT era for Merton was highly productive. He produced both a large quantity and

of thought in finance and economics, first at the hands of the great mind Franco Modigliani and then under the leadership of the great mind Paul Samuelson. In 1967 Harold Freeman, a long-time member of the economics department but hailing from a mathematical statistics background, saw value in the unconventional methodological

foundation of modern finance began in either mathematics or physics, as has Louis Bachelier. Indeed, Merton too had followed this same tradition. Perhaps in tribute, Paul Samuelson once labeled him the Newton of modern finance. After physics and applied mathematics, economics is the next best preparation for the study of finance. Intuition

and Scholes presented their paper. Merton went on the cement the label “Black-Scholes” in an appendix he wrote to a 1972 paper published by Paul Samuelson.1 While each had been working on the same timely problem over the 1960s, their paths did not cross immediately. However, when Merton discovered in

Applications 1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_International_Group, date accessed January 23, 2012. Notes 187 22 The Nobel Prize, Life, and Legacy 1. Paul Samuelson, “Mathematics of Speculative Price,” in R.H. Day and S.M. Robinson (eds), Mathematical Topics in Economic Theory and Computation, Philadelphia, PA: Society for Industrial

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