Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles
by William Quinn and John D. Turner · 5 Aug 2020 · 297pp · 108,353 words
’.29 This madness-of-crowds hypothesis has been refined and expanded by the likes of Kindleberger, John Kenneth Galbraith and, most recently, Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller.30 Shiller and other economists argue that bubbles can largely be explained by behavioural economics, with cognitive failings and psychological biases on the part of investors causing
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concern that the equity market was overheating. These gains appeared to be somewhat out of proportion with the money being made by its constituent firms. Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) stood at 28, meaning that S&P 500 companies were, after adjusting for the business cycle, valued
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closure only weeks before its strategy would have paid off.78 Perhaps the most influential explanation to emerge from the DotCom Bubble was that of Robert Shiller, whose bestseller Irrational Exuberance was published just as the bubble began to burst. While this book is most famous for emphasising the role of psychological
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and truly burst with the 2008 global financial crisis. There were Cassandras warning that disaster was impending. A handful of economists such as Yale’s Robert Shiller and Raghuram Rajan, during his tenure as Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund, warned about the housing bubble in the United States. Morgan Kelly
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, not so much for the rental income they would produce as for their potential capital appreciation. Indeed, 183 BOOM AND BUST economists Karl Case and Robert Shiller suggest that viewing housing as an investment is a defining characteristic of a housing bubble.57 The official report into the Irish banking crisis talks
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price rises through colourful reports about early investors growing rich, or shape public opinion with new-paradigm theories seeking to justify high asset prices.24 Robert Shiller argues that the news media are ‘fundamental propagators of speculative price movements through their efforts to make news interesting to their audience’.25 218 PREDICTING
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, amateur investors often rush into the market, whether for stocks or houses. In nearly every bubble episode, there are instances of what George Akerlof and Robert Shiller call ‘phishing for phools’ – attempts to persuade people to part with their money and put it into some nebulous scheme.31 The main takeaway from
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remark’, 4 July 2007, www.rte.ie/news/2007/0704/ 90808-economy/, last accessed 19 August 2019. 6. Sinai, ‘House price movements’, 20. 7. Sources: Robert Shiller’s house price index – www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm, last accessed 7 June 2018. See Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, pp. 11–15 for details
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the Chinese bubbles, 199, 205–7 in relation to the Japanese bubbles, 145, 148 in relation to the Subprime Bubble. See American International Group (AIG) Shiller, Robert, 11, 157, 168, 170, 184, 218 short selling Chinese efforts to curtail, 202–4 definition of, 7 difficulty of, 221 in relation to the British
Never Let a Serious Crisis Go to Waste: How Neoliberalism Survived the Financial Meltdown
by Philip Mirowski · 24 Jun 2013 · 662pp · 180,546 words
prominent economists had warned the New York Fed of a housing bubble as early as 2004; in response to one such presentation, Timothy Geithner removed Robert Shiller from the Fed advisory board.75 But the orthodox profession seems loathe to ever admit knowledge is actively policed and purged according to a preset
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influential” list they compiled was Ben Bernanke, John Maynard Keynes, Jeffrey Sachs, Hyman Minsky, and Paul Krugman; the “most important ideas” roster was Raghuram Rajan, Robert Shiller, Kenneth Rogoff, Barry Eichengreen, and Nouriel Roubini.78 If you were a member of the orthodoxy back then, it is hard to see how these
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in the movie Inside Job, and John Cochrane has already been mentioned above. The roster also included several other prominent neoliberals, such as Raghuram Rajan, Robert Shiller, and Matthew Slaughter. However, significantly, the report was widely trumpeted in the press as eminently “nonpartisan,” justified by pointing to the inclusion of more “centrist
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Herring, John Taylor, Jeremy Stein, Andrew Bernard, John Campbell, John Cochrane, Douglas Diamond, Darrell Duffie, Kenneth French, Anil Kashyap, Frederic Mishkin, Raghuram Rajan, David Sharfstein, Robert Shiller, Hyun Song Shin, Matthew Slaughter, and Rene Stulz.124 We could go on and on in this vein, but there is little point in choreographing
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regard to the accusation that “most economists failed to see the crisis coming,” The Economist averred that some had indeed issued warnings, and explicitly named Robert Shiller, Nouriel Roubini, and the “team at the Bank for International Settlements.” This set off the starting gun for a veritable silly season of all manner
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and Justin Fox’s Myth of the Rational Market. Some economists who had been strong advocates of behavioral approaches prior to the crash, such as Robert Shiller and Robert Frank, leaped in with op-eds essentially blaming the entire crisis on native cognitive weaknesses of market participants.37 This line became entrenched
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with the appearance of George Akerlof and Robert Shiller’s Animal Spirits: displaying an utter contempt for the history of economic thought, they “reduced” the message of Keynes’s General Theory to the proposition
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people may have different views about the value of an asset.” As we might expect from a consistent neoclassical, he also repudiates his Yale colleague Robert Shiller’s appeals to irrational exuberance and the madness of crowds, suggesting Shiller did not avail himself of exploration of what was going on “beneath” the
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. Similar ideas were promoted in the curiously titled Occupy Handbook, which included chapters by Raghuram Rajan, Tyler Cowen, Martin Wolf, David Graeber, Jeffrey Sachs, and Robert Shiller.6 Besotted by the millenarian idea of starting anew, and lacking any sense of the history of protest and political organization, both neoliberals and neoclassical
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nature are rather unself-conscious and aboveboard in the writings of the contemporary proponents of financial engineering, such as Robert Litan, Barry Eichengreen, and Robert Shiller.45 Because Shiller had become anointed by the media as the exemplar of an economist who had presciently warned of the housing bubble before it burst, the
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: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity no. 2 (1993): 1–73. Akerlof, George, and Robert Shiller. Animal Spirits (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009). Akerlof, George, and Robert Shiller. “Disputations: Our New Theory of Macroeconomics,” New Republic (2009), www.tnr.com/article/books-and-arts/disputations-our-new-theory
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: Wiley, 1998). Sherman, Gabriel. “Revolver,” New York, April 2011, at http://nymag.com/news/business/wallstreet/peter-orszag-2011-4/index6.html. Shiller, Robert. Finance and the Good Society (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2012). Shiller, Robert. “The Future of Capitalism: A Failure to Control Animal Spirits,” Financial Times Magazine, May 12, 2009, 14–16
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. Shiller, Robert. “In Defense of Financial Innovation,” Financial Times, September 27, 2009. Shiller, Robert. Interview on Finance and the Good Society (2012), www.voxeu.org/vox-talks
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/finance-and-good-society. Shiller, Robert. Irrational Exuberance, rev. ed. (New York: Broadway, 2006). Shiller, Robert. “Radical Financial Innovation,” Cowles Foundation discussion paper #1461
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, 2004. Shiller, Robert. “The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency,” Journal of Finance 36 (1981): 291–304. Shteyngart
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of four of those anointed by the Economist magazine that same year as having “the most important ideas in a post-crisis world”: Raghuram Rajan, Robert Shiller, Kenneth Rogoff, and Barry Eichengreen. That magazine neglected to inform its readers that all four served as apologists for the orthodoxy. The doctrines of each
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Were Going to Happen”; Baker, “The Soft Bigotry of Incredibly Low Expectations.” There is a big difference between warning of a housing bubble, as did Robert Shiller, for instance, and warning of global system breakdown over a long horizon. Shiller’s intellectual role in the crisis has been misunderstood, as we argue
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very top levels. The result is intellectual inbreeding. I’m told the public rejection of perspectives that ruffled the Fed’s world view, such as Robert Shiller being pushed off the New York Fed’s economic advisory board after he suggested that there was a housing bubble pre crisis and the dressing
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,” p. 150. 110 Gorton, Interview, 2010, p. 16. 111 The trope of natural financial innovation, shared by many other economists of similar inclination, such as Robert Shiller, is discussed in chapter 6. 112 Lo, “Reading About the Financial Crisis.” 113 See the NSF’s Science360: “Are Mathematical Models the Cause for Financial
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Seltzer, Nicolas Sen, Amartya Senate Banking Committee Shales, Amy Shapiro, Harold Sharfstein, David Shattered Shaw, D. E. Shefrin, Hersh Shelby, Richard Shenfield, Arthur Sherman, Brad Shiller, Robert Animal Spirits on behavioral economics Case–Shiller index The Economist on Finance and the Good Society Geanakoplos on influence of Irrational Exuberance MacroMarkets LLC on
Toward Rational Exuberance: The Evolution of the Modern Stock Market
by B. Mark Smith · 1 Jan 2001 · 403pp · 119,206 words
that they were not efficiently priced.11 But the most crucial blow to the notion that markets were perfectly efficient was struck by Yale professor Robert Shiller. Shiller studied the aggregate dividends and earnings of the S&P 500 between 1871 and 1979 and concluded that the value of the market as measured
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fact that stock prices appeared to move around more than they should. (In this sense, he intuitively grasped the more rigorous argument made by economist Robert Shiller, cited in chapter 13, that stock prices are far more volatile than they should be if the market were truly efficient.) As his graduation from
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is the essence of the case made by critics of the efficient market hypothesis. It is based on the same reasoning employed by the economist Robert Shiller, who, as discussed in chapter 13, found that stock prices have been far more volatile over time than can be justified by changes in underlying
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fundamentals. After the 1987 crash, Robert Shiller wrote scathingly that “[the] efficient market hypothesis is the most remarkable error in the history of economic theory. This is just another nail in its
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increased productivity, were driving stock prices higher. Old parameters used to value stocks no longer applied. The opposing view was presented by two academic economists, Robert Shiller and John Campbell. They did not directly rebut Cohen’s argument, but instead relied heavily on a detailed analysis of market history stretching back to
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1980. 10 Marshall Blume, Jeremy Siegel, and Dan Rottenburg, Revolution on Wall Street, p. 92. 11 Sanjoy Basu, Journal of Finance 32 (3), 1977. 12 Robert Shiller, American Economic Review, June 1981. 13 Peter Bernstein, Capital Ideas, p. 211. 14. RETURN OF THE BULL 1 Peter Bernstein, Capital Ideas, p. 69. 2
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Corporation (SIPC) security analysis Security Equity Fund Senate, U.S.; Banking and Currency Committee stores Shad, John Sharpe, William Shefrin, Hersh Sherman Antitrust Law (1890) Shiller, Robert Shop & Go short-selling; of commodities; and crash of 1929; during World War I Siegel, Jeremy silver crisis of 1980 Simmons, E.H.H. Sinclair
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; hence P/E ratios on rail shares were generally higher, and dividend yields were generally lower, than those for industrials. Some market observers, such as Robert Shiller in Irrational Exuberance, have argued that P/E ratios were too “high” in 1901. Part of the problem is that Shiller calculates market P/E
The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World
by Daniel Yergin · 14 May 2011 · 1,373pp · 300,577 words
the different kinds of funds and financial instruments. All this engendered increased activity, and more and more “investor excitement,” to borrow a phrase from Professor Robert Shiller, the student of financial bubbles and the explicator of the term “irrational exuberance.” Traders saw momentum in the market, which meant rising prices, and as
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, there is no sharp dividing line. Price is shaped by what happens both in the physical and financial markets.29 A couple of years later, Robert Shiller, who had become prominent for calling the Internet stock bubble and then the real estate bubble, was having breakfast in the restaurant of the Study
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Economic BRICs, Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper No. 66, November 30, 2001; Financial Times, January 15, 2010. 11 Interview with Mark Fisher. 12 Interview with Robert Shiller. Shiller’s definition of a speculative bubble: “A situation in which news of price increases spur investor enthusiasm, which spreads by psychological contagion from person to
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that many of the investors had deep convictions but few doubts about what they took to be the “real”—or future—value of petroleum. See Robert Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, 2nd ed. (New York: Broadway Books, 2005), p. 2. 13 Peter Jackson and Keith Eastwood, “Finding the Critical Numbers: What Are the Real
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, “The Oil Markets: Let the Data Speak for Itself,” EDHEC Working Paper, October 2008, p. 22. 29 Financial Times, September 8, 2009. 30 Interview with Robert Shiller. Chapter 9: China’s Rise 1 PetroChina Company Limited, Global Offering, March 27, 2000. 2 Cheng Li, ed., China’s Emerging Middle Class: Beyond Economic
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Peter R. Rose Taichi Sakaiya (Kotaro Ikeguchi) David Sandalow Richard Sandor Hermann Scheer Lee Schipper James Schlesinger Gerhard Schroeder Brent Scowcroft Philip Sharp Gordon Shearer Robert Shiller A. L. Shrier Scott Sklar Jeffery Smisek Robert Stavins Nicholas Stern Dan Steward Tom Stricker John Sununu Tulsi Tanit Wang Tao George Tenet John Tully
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. 1. Cambridge: The Riverside Press, 1886. “A. J. Haagen-Smit.” In World of Chemistry. Tampa, Fl: Thomson Gale Publishers, 2005. Akerlog, George A., and Robert J. Shiller. Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009. Albright, Madeleine. Madame Secretary: A
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. Vol. 3, The Politics of Upheaval. Boston: Houghton Mifflin: 1960. Shaxson, Nicholas. Poisoned Wells: The Dirty Politics of African Oil. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007. Shiller, Robert. Irrational Exuberance. Second edition. New York: Broadway Books, 2005. Shirky, Clay. “The Political Power of Social Media.” Foreign Affairs, 90, no. 1 (2011). Sifry, Micah
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Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation Sharp Sharp, Philip Shearer, Gordon Shell Oil Shell Transport and Trading Sherman Antitrust Act Shevardnadze, Eduard Shia in Iran in Iraq Shiller, Robert Shinseki, Eric Shippingport, Pa. Ships Bureau, U.S., Electrical Section in Shi Zhengrong Shoreham plant Shrier, A. L. shut-in capacity Siberia see also West
Hubris: Why Economists Failed to Predict the Crisis and How to Avoid the Next One
by Meghnad Desai · 15 Feb 2015 · 270pp · 73,485 words
the profession is in its self image. Thus in 2013 the Nobel Prize was given to Eugene Fama (Chicago), Lars Peter Hansen (Chicago) and Robert Shiller (Yale). Only Shiller is at all unorthodox, though a fully paid member of the mathematical macromodeling club. Thomas Sargent (formerly Minnesota now New York University) and Christopher
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previous 24 hours or earlier. When he was jointly awarded the Nobel Prize in 2013 with Lars Peter Hansen, also of University of Chicago, and Robert Shiller of Yale University, it was for “empirical analysis of asset prices.” What this implied is that in any market where there are many participants and
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debates about the occurrence of bubbles, with new classical economists treating the possibility as absurd and Keynesians taking up bubbles as their disproof of EMH. Robert Shiller, who had argued that the stock market in the 1990s was in a fervor of “irrational exuberance” since stock prices bore little relation to underlying
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) self-interest (i) self-organizing society (i) self-sufficiency (i) service sector (i), (ii) servomechanism (i) shadow banking structure (i) shares (i) Sherman Act (i) Shiller, Robert (i), (ii) shocks (i), (ii), (iii) contagion (i) debt crises (i) political (i) see also oil shock short cycles (i) short-run rate of interest
The Social Life of Money
by Nigel Dodd · 14 May 2014 · 700pp · 201,953 words
price system to improve economic conditions, including proposals by renowned economists, such as Irving Fisher’s stamp scrip (Fisher, Cohrssen, et al. 1933) and Robert Shiller’s baskets (Shiller 2008). Finally, there are now several thousand alternative monetary systems in operation worldwide, using a range of different media and accounting schemes designed to
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, 41, 179, 297 shadow banking, 116, 123, 124 Shakespeare, William, King Lear, 224; The Merchant of Venice, 186; Timon of Athens, 181 Shell, Marc, 35n29 Shiller, Robert, 314 sign, 35, 36, 39n35 signatures, theory of, 42 Silk Road, 366 Simiand, François, 32n Simmel, Georg, 27–30, 271, 276n, 291, 294, 295, 311
Social Democratic America
by Lane Kenworthy · 3 Jan 2014 · 283pp · 73,093 words
sentiment, see Gans 2011. 66. Baumol 2012; Carlin 2012. 67. My suggestion is similar in spirit to the idea of “inequality insurance” proposed by Robert Shiller; see Shiller 2003, ch. 11. See also Reich 2010. 68. Average compensation tends to rise in sync with GDP per capita. See Pessoa and Van Reenen 2012
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, Progressive, Lifelong Accounts.” Pp. 151–164 in Ending Poverty in America. Edited by John Edwards, Marion Crain, and Arne L. Kalleberg. New York: New Press. Shiller, Robert J. 2003. The New Financial Order. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Sides, John and Lynn Vavreck. 2013. The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012
Investing Demystified: How to Invest Without Speculation and Sleepless Nights
by Lars Kroijer · 5 Sep 2013 · 300pp · 77,787 words
great? The best estimate of residential property performance is the Case-Shiller House Price index which represents the price changes in US residential homes. Professor Robert Shiller describes the housing index along with other interesting ideas in his excellent book Irrational Exuberance (Princeton University Press, 2005). To my knowledge there isn’t
The Long Good Buy: Analysing Cycles in Markets
by Peter Oppenheimer · 3 May 2020 · 333pp · 76,990 words
is always efficient and prices change in fundamental factors (such as economic events) immediately. But theory is one thing and practice is another. Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller, for example, showed that while stock prices are extremely volatile over the short term, their valuation, or price/earnings ratio, provides information which makes them
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develop and can often significantly exaggerate the developments of economic and financial variables on which they are driven. Nobel Prize winners George A. Akerlof and Robert J. Shiller wrote that ‘the crisis was not foreseen, and is still not fully understood … because there have been no principles in conventional economic theories regarding
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had an expected equity risk premium that averaged about 3%. Others have emphasised that spot valuations can also distort the expectations for returns. In particular, Robert Shiller in his book Irrational Exuberance (2000) argued that stocks can become overextended, so that returns can be above normal and then below normal for extended
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they recover their senses slowly, one by one’. A similar focus on crowd ‘contagion’, particularly when coupled with a powerful narrative, is also emphasised by Robert Shiller in his book Irrational Exuberance (2000). Here Shiller describes a bubble as ‘a situation in which news of price increases spurs investor enthusiasm which spreads
Capital Ideas Evolving
by Peter L. Bernstein · 3 May 2007
37 The Institutionalists 4. Robert C. Merton: “Risk Is Not an Add-On” 5. Andrew Lo: “The Only Part of Economics That Really Works” 6. Robert Shiller: The People’s Risk Manager 47 58 65 The Engineers 7. Bill Sharpe: “It’s Dangerous to Think of Risk as a Number” vii 91
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doing the most rational thing as judged by assistant professors of f inance.” Nevertheless, Samuelson’s connection with Behavioral Finance is far from casual. As Robert Shiller of Yale has pointed out in a recent paper, “This is a good occasion to recall that [Samuelson] was in an important sense one of
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of a protégé, appear in the next three chapters: Robert C. Merton of Harvard Business School, Andrew Lo of the Sloan School at MIT, and Robert Shiller of the Cowles Foundation at Yale. Merton, a high-powered mathematician who started out in economics and finance as an assistant to Samuelson, helped Black
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where every event is identical to some previous event.2 bern_c06.qxd 3/23/07 9:03 AM Page 65 6 Robert Shiller The People’s Risk Manager rofessor Robert Shiller of the Cowles Foundation at Yale looks much too young to have earned his Ph.D. at MIT over thirty years ago
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their expectations, because that process leads them astray too often. Rather, in forming expectations bern_c06.qxd 3/23/07 9:03 AM Page 67 Robert Shiller 67 they make use of all available information, including past experience as just one among many factors. If individuals are taking all available information into
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that the temperature today will be 150 degrees, and the next day that he bern_c06.qxd 3/23/07 9:03 AM Page 69 Robert Shiller 69 thinks the temperature will be −50 degrees. Even if his weather report correlates with the actual temperature, we would sense that something is wrong
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many crises, despite many episodes that would fit Shiller’s definition of excess volatility, bern_c06.qxd 3/23/07 9:03 AM Page 71 Robert Shiller 71 when price changes are much wilder than the changes in the underlying fundamentals. Despite these violent markets, the United States has—so far—never
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wins half the game. The proponents of behaviorally motivated markets win the other half. bern_c06.qxd 3/23/07 9:03 AM Page 73 Robert Shiller 73 The motivation for Shiller’s analysis was a view expressed by Paul Samuelson some years ago in a letter to Shiller and cited by
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to create an equal-weighted index of stock prices, and tested the aggregate dividend bern_c06.qxd 3/23/07 9:03 AM Page 75 Robert Shiller 75 on the index (as a proxy for “the market”) against the future growth in dividends. Now the relation between the dividend yield and future
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becoming a reality. The bailout instantly reversed the sharp market decline then under way. bern_c06.qxd 3/23/07 9:03 AM Page 77 Robert Shiller 77 There is a case that arrogance and hubris brought down LTCM. There is also a case that the fund was the victim of circumstances
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Ideas. On this score, Capital Ideas do not appear to be vulnerable. Theory never bern_c06.qxd 3/23/07 9:03 AM Page 79 Robert Shiller 79 excludes the possibility of a financial crisis and recognizes that markets will move to ref lect unexpected changes in the underlying fundamentals. Although Behavioral
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the world we live in. They either do not know the limitations of the bern_c06.qxd 3/23/07 9:03 AM Page 81 Robert Shiller 81 theory or they are not interested in trying to fix those limitations. I am.” He takes the critique a step further (knowing that he
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? The U.K. launched this instrument back in 1985.” Shiller shakes his head. “Amazing,” he concludes. If Robert Merton can describe himself as a plumber, Robert Shiller is a roofer. His interest in volatility and all it means in terms of risk and uncertainty has led him far afield from conventional asset
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their wealth invested in their homes. In the simplest sense of the word, they bern_c06.qxd 3/23/07 9:03 AM Page 83 Robert Shiller 83 are undiversified. Events that would reduce the resale value of their homes—a general decline in home prices, a radical change in the character
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markets to hedge the current value on their homes. The process is too complicated bern_c06.qxd 3/23/07 9:03 AM Page 85 Robert Shiller 85 and the minimum amounts for trading would be out of reach for most people. But Shiller has a solution for this problem, too, which
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now have no way of protecting themselves against that idiosyncratic risk. They need to bern_c06.qxd 3/23/07 9:03 AM Page 87 Robert Shiller 87 get out of that risk and go into something really diversified like the market portfolio—a portfolio of paper representing the GDP of all
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helping him and his staff to understand the limitations of the different filters Yale brings to the investment process. Swensen is a great admirer of Robert Shiller—but speculates on how to preserve the notion of the Capital Asset Pricing Model and efficient markets if Shiller’s views on the market’s
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Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 12362. 252 bern_z02bbiblio.qxd 3/23/07 9:13 AM Page 253 Bibliography 253 Campbell, John, and Robert Shiller, 1998. “Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook,” The Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 24, No. 2 ( Winter). Chan, Nicholas, Mila Getmansky, Shane
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the Period 1945–1964,” Journal of Finance, Vol. 23 ( December), pp. 587– 616. Jones, Bob, 2006. Pensions & Investments, April 3, p. 20. Jung, Jeeman, and Robert Shiller, 2005. “Samuelson’s Dictum and the Stock Market,” Economic Inquiry, Vol. 43, No. 5, pp. 221–228. Kahneman, Daniel, 2002. Autobiography and Nobel Address. Available
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. 19, No. 3 (September), pp. 425–442. Sharpe, William, 2006. Investors and Markets: Portfolio Choices, Asset Prices and Investment Advice, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Shiller, Robert, 1981. “Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justif ied by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?” American Economic Review, Vol. 71, No. 3 ( June), pp
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. 421–436. Shiller, Robert, 1989. Market Volatility, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Shiller, Robert, 1993. Macro Markets: Creating Institutions for Managing Society’s Largest Economic Risks, New York: Oxford University Press. Shiller, Robert, 1999. “Human Behavior and the Eff iciency of the Financial System,” in John
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B. Taylor and Michael Woodford, eds., Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier Science Ltd. Shiller, Robert, 2001. Irrational Exuberance, New York: Broadway Books. (Second Edition, Princeton, NJ: Princeton
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University Press.) Shiller, Robert, 2003. “From Eff icient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 17, No. 1 ( Winter
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), pp. 83–104. Shiller Robert, 2003. The New Financial Order: Risk in the 21st Century, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Shiller, Robert, 2006. “Tools for Financial Innovation: Neoclassical versus Behavioral Finance,” Financial Review, Vol. 41, No. 1 ( February), pp
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Hord, Ron Kahn, Daniel Kahneman, Martin Leibowitz, Bob Litterman, Andrew Lo, Harry Markowitz, Robert C. Merton, Steve Ross, Paul A. Samuelson, Myron Scholes, Bill Sharpe, Robert Shiller, Larry Siegel, David Swensen, Richard Thaler, and Jack Treynor. Barbara Bernstein, my wife and business partner, was once again my essential colleague in the process
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, 166–167 on state-preference theory, 94 –96 on stock valuation and betas, 172 Sharpe-Treynor-Lintner-Mossin CAPM, 165 Shearson-Lehman bond index, 84 Shiller, Robert Capital Ideas applications by, 43, 65– 66, 240 –241 Eff icient Market Hypothesis studies on micro-eff iciency by, 72–76 excess volatility studies by
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developed by, 82–86 Irrational Exuberance by, 43, 65, 70, 73, 75 bern_z04bindex.qxd 280 4/3/07 8:20 AM Page 280 INDEX Shiller, Robert (Continued) on macro-ineff iciency of markets, 41 Macro Markets: Creating Institutions for Managing Society’s Largest Economic Risks by, 81, 82 The New Financial
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’s Adaptive Market Hypothesis blends these views into a powerful vision of how markets work and what forces are driving new developments in the marketplace. Robert Shiller of the Cowles Foundation at Yale has published over two hundred papers and five books, including the worldwide best seller, Irrational Exuberance. “Finance is what
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