Stanford marshmallow experiment

Dopamine Nation: Finding Balance in the Age of Indulgence
by Anna Lembke
Published 24 Aug 2021

The hope is that by limiting access to these drugs, and by making psychiatrists gatekeepers, the mystical properties of these chemicals—a sense of oneness, transcendence of time, positive mood, and reverence—can be leveraged without leading to misuse, overuse, and addictive use. * * * — Some people need neither shaman nor psychiatrist to imbue their drug of choice with the sacred. In a now famous Stanford marshmallow experiment, at least one child in the experiment managed the sacred entirely on their own. The Stanford marshmallow experiment was a series of studies led by psychologist Walter Mischel in the late 1960s at Stanford University to study delayed gratification. Children between the ages of three and six were offered a choice between one small reward provided immediately (a marshmallow) or two small rewards (two marshmallows) if the child could wait for approximately fifteen minutes without eating the first marshmallow.

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* * * — I’ve mentioned the Stanford marshmallow experiment of 1968, in which children between the ages of three and six were studied for their ability to delay gratification. They were left alone in an empty room with a marshmallow on a plate and were told if they could go a full fifteen minutes without eating the marshmallow, they would get that marshmallow and a second one as well. They would get double the reward if they could just wait for it. In 2012, researchers at the University of Rochester altered the 1968 Stanford marshmallow experiment in one crucial way. One group of children experienced a broken promise before the marshmallow test was conducted: The researchers left the room and said they would return when the child rang the bell, but then didn’t.

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“short shorts and short skirts”: The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, “Dress and Appearance,” accessed July 2, 2020, https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/study/manual/for-the-strength-of-youth/dress-and-appearance?lang=eng. 3,000 new gluten-free snack products: M. Shahbandeh, “Gluten-Free Food Market Value in the United States from 2014 to 2025,” Statista, November 20, 2019, accessed July 2, 2020, https://www.statista.com/statistics/884086/us-gluten-free-food-market-value/. famous Stanford marshmallow experiment: Yuichi Shoda, Walter Mischel, and Philip K. Peake, “Predicting Adolescent Cognitive and Self-Regulatory Competencies from Preschool Delay of Gratification: Identifying Diagnostic Conditions,” Developmental Psychology 26, no. 6 (1990): 978–86, https://doi.org/10.1037/0012-1649.26.6.978.

Taming the To-Do List: How to Choose Your Best Work Every Day
by Glynnis Whitwer
Published 10 Aug 2015

Chapter 11 Strengthening Willpower [1]. “What You Need to Know about Willpower: The Psychological Science of Self-Control,” American Psychological Association Help Center, accessed February 25, 2015, http://www.apa.org/helpcenter/willpower.aspx. [2]. “Stanford Marshmallow Experiment,” Wikipedia, accessed February 25, 2015, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_marshmallow_experiment. [3]. B. J. Casey et al., “Behavioral and Neural Correlates of Delay of Gratification 40 Years Later,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108, no. 36 (August 9, 2011): 14998–15003, doi:10.1073/pnas.1108561108. [4]. Maria Konnikova, “The Struggles of a Psychologist Studying Self-Control,” The New Yorker, October 9, 2014, http://www.newyorker.com/science/maria-konnikova/struggles-psychologist-studying-self-control

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We live with the sadness of intentionally delaying that which is in our best interest to do now. For a procrastinator, willpower is elusive, showing up at unexpected times and being MIA when we need it most. Are some people born with more willpower? Researchers believe that some people are born with a stronger sense of willpower than others. In the famous “Marshmallow Test” conducted by Walter Mischel and Ebbe B. Ebbesen at Stanford University in 1970, researchers studied how children responded when offered a treat. The children were set in a room with a treat of some kind, often a marshmallow, and told if they waited to eat it, they could have a second treat.

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Researchers then followed up with these children through the years, and the results were consistent. The children with higher willpower in the first test continued to show greater self-control through the years, resulting in higher educational achievements and better overall health. One of these follow-up studies involved tracking down fiftynine subjects of the marshmallow test.[3] As part of the research, they performed MRIs on these individuals and discovered that the prefrontal cortex (the center of our executive processing) was more active in those with greater willpower. Conversely, the MRI showed more activity in the ventral striatum (a region thought to process desires and rewards) in those with lower self-control.

The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking
by Saifedean Ammous
Published 23 Mar 2018

Exchange rate in June 1914 = 1 Figure 6 Broad money average annual growth rate for 167 currencies, 1960–2015 Figure 7 Annual broad money growth rate in Japan, U.K., United States, and Euro area Figure 8 Purchasing power of gold and wholesale commodity index in England, 1560–1976 Figure 9 Price of commodities in gold and in U.S. dollars, in log scale, 1792–2016 Figure 10 Major currencies priced in gold, 1971–2017 Figure 11 Oil priced in U.S. dollars and ounces of gold, 1861–2017, as multiple of price in 1971 Figure 12 National savings rates in major economies, 1970–2016, % Figure 13 Unemployment rate in Switzerland, % Figure 14 Bitcoin supply and supply growth rate assuming blocks are issued exactly every ten minutes Figure 15 Projected Bitcoin and national currency percentage growth in supply over 25 years Figure 16 Price of Bitcoin in US dollars Figure 17 Annual transactions on the Bitcoin network Figure 18 Average U.S. dollar value of transaction fees on Bitcoin network, logarithmic scale Figure 19 Monthly 30‐day volatility for Bitcoin and the USD Index Figure 20 Global oil consumption, production, proven reserves, and ratio of reserves over annual production, 1980–2015 Figure 21 Total available global stockpiles divided by annual production Figure 22 Blockchain decision chart List of Tables Table 1 Major European Economies' Periods Under the Gold Standard Table 2 Depreciation of National Currency Against the Swiss Franc During World War I Table 3 The Ten Countries with Highest Average Annual Broad Money Supply Growth, 1960–2015 Table 4 Average Annual Percent Increase in Broad Money Supply for the Ten Largest Global Currencies Table 5 Conflict Deaths in the Last Five Centuries Table 6 Bitcoin Supply and Growth Rate Table 7 Bitcoin Supply and Growth Rate (Projected) Table 8 Annual Transactions and Average Daily Transactions Table 9 Total Annual US Dollar Value of All Bitcoin Network Transactions Table 10 Average Daily Percentage Change and Standard Deviation in the Market Price of Currencies per USD over the Period of September 1, 2011, to September 1, 2016 Index 51% attack, 242–245 aggry beads, 13 altcoins, 251–257 anarcho‐capitalism, 203–204 antifragility, 230–232 art, 98–104 aureus, 25 Austrian school of economics, 3, 70, 106, 142–145, 204 barter, 1 bezant, 28–29 Bitcoin, 33–34, 167 block subsidy, 187, 199, 218 blockchain, 257–272 breakdown of the family, 95 Bretton Woods conference, 56–57 business cycle, 116, 119, 145 Byzantine empire, 28–29 Byzantium, see Byzantine empire capital goods, 9, 75, 109–116 capitalism, 92, 109–111, 118, 200 cargo cult science, 258 cash, 169, 171, 207, 238 cash, digital, see digital cash central banks, 39–40, 56–57, 59, 69, 89, 117–119, 210–212 coin clipping, 25 coincidence of wants, 2 coins, 18 comparative advantage, 108 Constantine, 28 counterparty risk, 208 crime, 238–240 Croesus, 18, 25 cypherpunk, 203, 246 DAO, see Decentralized Autonomous Organization Dark Ages, 29–30 Decentralized Autonomous Organization, 254, 266–267 deflation, 121, 140–141 denarius, 25 depression, economic, 49–53, 120–124 depression, psychological, 95 digital cash, 168–170, 182, 200, 207, 238 digital goods, 201–202 digital scarcity, 177, 199–200 dinar, 28–29 Diocletian, 26, 28 direct exchange, 1 ducat, 30 easy money, 5 easy money trap, 5 Ehrlich, Paul, 195 Ethereum, 254 Federal Reserve, 49, 51, 59, 120, 125 fiat money, see government money Finney, Hal, 209, 223, 252 Fisher, Irving, 124 florin, 30 fractional reserve banking, 113, 124, 161, 206, 209 Friedman, Milton, 121–123, 125, 140, 155 Galbraith, John Kenneth, 155 GDP, 130–131 General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs, 58 gold, 17, 19–22, 23–24, 82, 85–89, 155, 214 gold standard, 19, 31–32, 35–40, 250 government money, 9, 37, 41–43, 51, 62, 66–70, 87–89, 181 Great Depression, 49–53, 124–125 hard money, 5 hashing, 191, 248 Hayek, Friedrich, 47, 72, 106–107, 126 Hoover, Herbert, 49–50 hyperinflation, 48, 62–63, 66–67 Impossible Trinity, 128, 131 indirect exchange, 2 inflation, 26–27, 44–45, 48–51, 60–61, 81, 118, 138–139 interest rates, 80, 112–119, 145, 157 International Monetary Fund, 57–58, 120 Julius Caesar, 25 Keynes, John Maynard, 51–52, 54–56, 71, 82–83, 91–92, 95, 117, 131, 137–139, 143, 153, 155 Kremer, Michael, 196 Lips, Ferdinand, 27 malinvestments, 145 marginal utility, 84 market demand, 19 marshmallow experiment, see Stanford Marshmallow Experiment medium of exchange, 2 Menger, Carl, 3, 34 Merkle tree, 175 Merkle, Ralph, 175 Michelangelo, 100 Mischel, Walter, 77 Mises, Ludwig von, 36, 38, 70, 109–111, 116–117, 135, 142, 145, 182 Monetarism, 121, 124, 137, 140 monetary demand, 19 monetary nationalism, 47, 213 Nakamoto, Satoshi, 142, 171, 212, 223, 252 Nero, 25 New Deal, 50 New Liberty Standard, 182 Newton, Isaac, 31 Nixon, Richard, 60–61 O'Keefe, David, 12–13 peer‐to‐peer network, 192 price elasticity of supply, 24 prices, 106–111, 119 proof‐of‐work, 171–172, 218–219 public key cryptography, 191, 217 Rai stones, 9, 11–13, 174 recession, 36, 91–92, 116–124, 138–140 Renaissance, 29–30 reserve currency, 37–39, 56, 206–210 Roman empire, 25 Roosevelt, Franklin Delano, 49–51 Rothbard, Murray, 34, 49, 79, 116, 126, 143, 204 Rothko, Mark, 102 Royal Mint, 31 salability, 3 Samuelson, Paul, 55, 158–159 Satoshi, see Nakamoto, Satoshi satoshis, 175, 179, 181, 198 savings, 35, 83, 90–93, 114, 143, 153, 163 scarcity, 110–114, 177, 193–195, 199 Schwartz, Anna, 121–123, 125 seashells, 14 silver, 17, 22–23, 30–33 Simon, Julian, 193, 195 smart contracts, 265–267 socialism, 109–111, 118 solidus, 26, 28–29, 212 sound money, 7, 30, 34, 43, 70–71, 73, 89–90, 119, 146, 150, 153, 165, 249–251 Stanford Marshmallow Experiment, 77, 143–144 state theory of money, 136–137 stock‐to‐flow ratio, 5–6, 23, 155, 199 store of value, 4, 193, 208 Switzerland, 37, 90, 119 time preference, 7, 74–80, 143 unit of account, 8, 212–216 unsound money, 25, 38, 71, 90, 102, 115, 119, 127, 145–163 Wales, Jimmy, 106 war, 145–149 White, Harry Dexter, 56 Wikipedia, 106 World War I, 41, 43–46 World War II, 53–55 Yap, 9, 11–13, 174 WILEY END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT Go to www.wiley.com/go/eula to access Wiley’s ebook EULA.

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This is a simple way of testing children's time preference: students with a lower time preference were the ones who could wait for the second piece of candy, whereas the students with the higher time preference could not. Mischel followed up with the children decades later and found significant correlation between having a low time preference as measured with the marshmallow test and good academic achievement, high SAT score, low body mass index, and lack of addiction to drugs. As an economics professor, I make sure to teach the marshmallow experiment in every course I teach, as I believe it is the single most important lesson economics can teach to individuals, and am astounded that university curricula in economics have almost entirely ignored this lesson, to the point that many academic economists have no familiarity with the term time preference altogether or its significance.

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The process of producing fish for Linda's descendants has become so long and sophisticated it takes decades to complete, whereas Harry's descendants still complete their process in a few hours every day. The difference, of course, is that Linda's descendants have vastly higher productivity than Harry's, and that's what makes engaging in the longer process worthwhile. An important demonstration of the importance of time preference comes from the famous Stanford marshmallow experiment,2 conducted in the late 1960s. Psychologist Walter Mischel would leave children in a room with a piece of marshmallow or a cookie, and tell the kids they were free to have it if they wanted, but that he will come back in 15 minutes, and if the children had not eaten the candy, he would offer them a second piece as a reward.

Endure: Mind, Body, and the Curiously Elastic Limits of Human Performance
by Alex Hutchinson
Published 6 Feb 2018

, 83–84 Simpson, Tom, 152–53, 154 Skiba, Philip, 78 “Sleep low,” 196 Slovak Direct, 197–98 Slushies, 148–49 Smith, John, 10 Soda doping, 116 South African Special Forces, 170, 171 South Georgia Island, 28 South Pole, 17–19, 25–28, 33–36 Special Air Service (SAS), 26 Spleen vent, 124–25 Sports drinks, 51–52, 71–72, 78, 160–61, 188–91, 266 Sports Illustrated, 65, 118, 150–51 Staiano, Walter, 93, 216–17, 221 Stanford marshmallow experiment, 67–68 Stanley Cup, 95–96 State Central Institute of Physical Culture, 105 Static apnea, 122–23 Stefansson, Vilhjalmur, 184–86 Steinhaus, Arthur, 103–5, 139 Stellingwerff, Hilary, 250 Stellingwerff, Trent, 175, 187, 191, 250–51 Stinson, Jason, 141–43, 145, 147, 154–55, 166, 285n Stomach temperature, 148–49 “Stress-induced analgesia,” 95 Stringer, Korey, 142 Stroop task, 68, 69 Strug, Kerri, 96 Sub-four-minute mile, 7–9, 12–14, 203–4 Sub-two-hour marathon, 2–4, 13, 33, 73–79, 201–6, 263–67 Subliminal messages, 15, 65–66, 70, 213 Sullivan, James E., 160 “Sun dogs,” 26 Svendsen, Oskar, 136 Sweating, 145, 148, 149, 150, 160 Swishing drinks, 190, 191 Tadese, Zersenay, 76–79, 188–89, 201–3, 205–6, 264–66 Tallent, Jared, 178 Tam, Nicholas, 171–72 Taste, 120, 126 Taylor, Frederick Winslow, 30 Taylor, Henry Longstreet, 32 Teff, 182–83 Tegenkamp, Matt, 74 Tergat, Paul, 2, 175 Thermoregulation, 143–45 Thirst, 169–74, 176 desert, 157–59 Thomas, Jesse, 89, 236–37, 242–43 Thompson, Benjamin, 143 Thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP), 56–57 Thugwane, Josia, 45 Time-to-exhaustion tests, 22–23, 92–95 Titan Dome, 34 Tolstoy, Leo, 95 Tor des Géants, 109–10, 112–13 Toronto Maple Leafs, 95–96 Toronto Waterfront Marathon (2011), 246–49, 256–57, 258 Tortoise and the Hare, 43 Tour de France, 83–84, 85, 86, 91, 152–53 Tourniquet tolerance, 88–89 Training for the New Alpinism (House and Johnston), 197–98 Transcend (documentary), 249–50 Transcranial direct-current stimulation (tDCS), 15, 94–95, 231–32, 235–36, 237, 241–43 Halo headphones, 238–41 Transcutaneous electric nerve stimulation (TENS), 93 Trans Europe Foot Race, 84 Treadmill tests, 22, 29–30, 32, 40, 45–46, 70–71, 76–77, 151, 163, 178, 180 Treatise of Man (Descartes), 96 Triplett, Norman, 63 Tropical Storm Beryl, 37 Trubridge, William, 119–20, 121, 122, 124, 126 True beliefs, 257–58 Tucker, Ross, 46, 48, 53, 115, 149, 210–11, 212, 224 Twight, Mark, 196–99 Two-hour marathon.

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This is one of the skills that Stanford University psychologist Walter Mischel tested with his famous “marshmallow test” in the late 1960s. The experimenters offered preschoolers a choice between one treat right away, or two treats if they waited for fifteen minutes. Over decades of follow-up, the children who resisted temptation the longest ended up with better test scores, more education, and lower body-mass index.19 Other studies have linked low response inhibition to higher risk of outcomes like divorce and even crack cocaine addiction. No one has checked whether the kids who aced the marshmallow test were more likely to become champion endurance athletes—but they should.

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Blanchfield et al., “Talking Yourself Out of Exhaustion: The Effects of Self-Talk on Endurance Performance,” Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise 46, no. 5 (2014). 18. caffeine pills: F. C. Wardenaar et al., “Nutritional Supplement Use by Dutch Elite and Sub-Elite Athletes: Does Receiving Dietary Counseling Make a Difference?,” International Journal of Sport Nutrition and Exercise Metabolism 2, no. 1 (2017). 19. his famous “marshmallow test”: Walter Mischel et al., “Delay of Gratification in Children,” Science 244, no. 4907 (1989); also B. J. Casey et al., “Behavioral and Neural Correlates of Delay of Gratification 40 Years Later,” PNAS 108, no. 36 (2011). 20. tax their subjects’ response inhibition: B. Pageaux et al., “Response Inhibition Impairs Subsequent Self-Paced Endurance Performance,” European Journal of Applied Physiology 114, no. 5 (2014). 21. professionals were significantly better at the Stroop task: K.

Against Empathy: The Case for Rational Compassion
by Paul Bloom

See also psychopaths Solomon, Andrew, 20 Solzhenitsyn, Aleksandr, 92 Somalia, 93, 94 Spanish Civil War, 188 sports fans, 236 spotlight nature of empathy, 9, 30–31, 33–34, 87–88, 89–90, 95, 130, 136–37 “spree killers,” 181 Stagnaro, Nick, 195 Stalin, Joseph, 89 stamp collecting, 155 Stanford marshmallow experiment, 234 Stapel, Diederik, 223–24 Steinle, Kate, 192 stereotypes, 37, 121 Stowe, Harriet Beecher, 48–49, 92 Strangers Drowning (MacFarquhar), 46–47 Sudan, 93, 94 suffering, 17, 30–31, 35, 46–47, 73–74, 88–89, 155–56, 173–74 Supreme Court, U.S., 125–26 “sympathy,” 16–17, 39, 40 Syria, 193 tax policy, 116 tenderness and aestheticism, 145 Texas Hold’em, 28 theory of mind, 17, 62 Theory of Moral Sentiments, The (Smith).

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Hambrick and Christopher Chabris, “Yes, IQ Really Matters,” Slate, April 14, 2014, http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2014/04/what_do_sat_and_iq_tests_measure_gen eral_intelligence_predicts_school_and.html. 233 professional moral philosophers Eric Schwitzgebel and Joshua Rust, “The Moral Behavior of Ethics Professors: Relationships Among Self-Reported Behavior, Expressed Normative Attitude, and Directly Observed Behavior,” Philosophical Psychology 27 (2014): 293–327. 234 Walter Mischel investigated For a review, see Walter Mischel, The Marshmallow Test: Mastering Self-Control (Boston: Little, Brown, 2014). studies of exceptional altruists Abigail A. Marsh et al., “Neural and Cognitive Characteristics of Extraordinary Altruists,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (2014): 15036–41. Steven Pinker has argued Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined (New York: Penguin Books, 2011). 235 Smith discusses the qualities Adam Smith, The Theory of Moral Sentiments (Lawrence, KS: Digireads.com, 2010), 130.

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See charitable giving; goodness heuristics, 227–28 Hickok, Gregory, 64, 67 Hieronymi, Pamela, 157 high empathy, in personal relationships, 42, 132–36 Hitler, Adolf, 28, 191, 193, 196, 208–9 Hobbes, Thomas, 167, 168 Hoffman, Martin, 10, 21–22, 166 Holloway, Natalee, 90–91 Holocaust, 5, 196, 205, 206–7, 208–9 homeless people, and empathy, 69–70, 167 Hopkins, Anthony, 180 Horton, Willie, 34–35, 53 hot cognition, 214, 216 Hotel Rwanda (movie), 93 How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life (Roberts), 153 Hume, David, 39, 44, 165–66 Hurricane Irene, 90 Hurricane Katrina, 90, 91 Hurricane Sandy, 90 Hussein, Saddam, 193 Iacoboni, Marco, 141 identifiable victim effect, 88–89, 90 impartiality, 8, 110, 159 incentives, 57–58 Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, 90 indigestion, 217 innumerate, 9, 31, 36, 89 insular cortex, 61, 64, 65, 139 intelligence (IQ), 230–33 intimacy (intimate relationships), 129–36, 149–63 apologies and, 156–58 friendships, 149–54, 158–59 high empathy in relationships, 132–36 IQ tests, 232 Iraq war, 107, 193 Isaacson, Walter, 93, 94 ISIS, 193 Island of Doctor Moreau, The (Wells), 75 Israeli-Palestinian conflict, 4–5, 186, 188–89, 190, 204–5 Jackson, Frank, 148 James, William, 170 Jamison, Leslie, 10, 25, 146–47 Jesus, 161 Jinpa, Thupten, 141 job candidates, 224–25 Johnson, Lyndon, 93 judges, and cognitive empathy, 37, 125–26 Just Babies (Bloom), 6, 163, 172–73, 239 justice, 42–43, 48, 159, 210–11 Kagan, Shelly, 29 Kahneman, Daniel, 152, 214 Kant, Immanuel, 29, 30 Keyser Söze (character), 180 kidney donations, 26, 47, 238 kindness, 3, 21, 25, 170 loving-kindness meditation, 139–41 in romantic partners, 129–30 zero-sum nature of, 95–98 kinship, 7–8, 159–60 Klimecki, Olga, 138 knowledge argument, 148 Kravinsky, Zell, 25–26, 27, 102, 238 Kuehberger, Johann, 28 Lakoff, George, 20, 113–14, 119 Landy, Joshua, 48–50 Lanza, Adam, 1 Lazare, Aaron, 156–57 Leaves of Grass (Whitman), 21 Lee, Robert E., 184 Less Than Human (Smith), 204–5, 206 Levi, Primo, 206–7 Lévi-Strauss, Claude, 202–3 liberals (liberalism), 113–14, 118–27 political orientation and language, 114–18 libertarians (libertarianism), 114, 115, 118, 122 lies (lying), 29 Lifton, Robert Jay, 16 Lincoln, Abraham, 167, 168 Locke, John, 115 Lockwood, Heidi Howkins, 156 Louis CK, 109 loving-kindness meditation, 139–41 loyalty, 120, 158, 159–60, 236 Lynch, Michael, 10, 51 MacFarquhar, Larissa, 10, 46–47, 104, 161, 162 MacKinnon, Catharine, 203 Macnamara, John, 229 Mad Men (TV series), 154 Make-A-Wish Foundation, 96–97 malaria, 40–41, 97, 103 Manne, Kate, 205 “man versus man” problems, 104 Marsh, Abigail, 47 marshmallow experiment, 234 martial arts, and violence, 187 Mary’s Room, 148 McClure, Jessica (Baby Jessica), 90 McVeigh, Timothy, 49 meanness, 199 measurement problem, 77–83 media spotlight, 90–91, 92–93 medical students, and empathy, 142–44 Meltzoff, Andrew, 171–72 Mencius, 22 mentalization, 17, 71 Mill, John Stuart, 29, 115, 116–17 Milton, John, 26 mind–body problem, 217, 220 mindfulness meditation, 43, 140–41 minimum wage, 119 mirror neurons, 63–64 Mischel, Walter, 234 Montross, Christine, 142–45, 146 morality, 22–23, 39–54 in babies and children, 6, 165, 171 emotional nature of, 5–6 empathy as foundation of, 19–22, 165–76 empathy as poor guide for, 2–3, 9–10, 54–55 goodness and empathy, 41–42, 101–6 inciting violence, 184–87 origins of, 171–76 reason as basis for, 5–6, 8–9, 44, 51–54 terminological issues, 39–41 moralization gap, 181–84 moral philosophy, 22, 29–30, 44, 91–92 Mother Teresa of Calcutta, 89 Myth of Mirror Neurons, The (Hickok), 64, 67 names (naming), 222 national disasters, and election years, 94 natural selection, 168–70 Nazi Doctors, The (Lifton), 16 Nazis, 5, 16, 74, 110–11, 124, 177–78, 181, 191, 196, 202, 206–7 Netanyahu, Benjamin, 188–89, 190 neuroscience, 47, 59–73 of compassion, 138–39 difference between feeling and understanding, 70–73 of empathic experiences, 62–68 empathic reactions and prior bias, preference, and judgment, 68–70, 90 localization problem, 59–61 other people’s pain, 62–68, 73–75 of reason, 216–21 Newtown school shooting, 1–2, 31–33, 90 New Yorker, The, 11–12 New York Times, 11, 100, 214 Nussbaum, Martha, 10, 107, 203 Oakley, Barbara, 135 Obama, Barack, 2, 4, 18, 19, 118, 119, 122–23, 235 Obama, Michelle, 123 objectification, 178–79, 203–4, 206 objectivity, 86, 146 Ochsner, Kevin, 71–72 O’Connor, Lynn E., 141 Oliver Twist (Dickens), 92 Omnivore’s Dilemma, The (Pollan), 50 On Apology (Lazare), 156–57 origins of empathy, 171–76 orphanages, in Cambodia, 100 Orwell, George, 37–38, 159–60, 188 oxytocin, 195 pain babies and empathy, 172–74 neuroscience of, 62–68, 73–75 role in empathy, 17, 21, 33–36, 62–68, 155–56 parenting, 97, 130–31, 154–55 Parkinson’s disease, 219 parochialism, 9, 36 “pathological altruism,” 135 Patton, George S., 178 Paul, Laurie, 147–48 Paul, Ron, 118 Personal Concern scale, 80–81 personal distress, 25 Personal Distress scale, 79–81 Perspective Taking scale, 78–81 physicalism, 148 physician-patient relationship, 143–45, 146–47 Pinker, Steven, 10, 18–19, 74–75, 239–40 moralization gap and, 181, 184 self-control and, 234 threshold effect and, 231 Pitkin, Aaron, 46 pity, 40, 100 Plato, 214 poker, 28 Poland, Hitler’s invasion of, 193 police shootings, 4, 19–20, 205 political orientation and language, 114–18 politics, 113–27 free speech and, 123–26 legal context, 125–26 liberal policies and empathy, 113–14, 118–25 rationality and irrationality in, 235–37 pornography, depiction of women in, 203–4 Poulin, Michael, 193–95 prefrontal cortex, 61, 71 presidential election of 2012, 117–18, 119 Prinz, Jesse, 10, 22, 200, 210–11 prison rape, 93 progressives (progressivism), 113–14, 118–27 political orientation and language, 114–18 projective empathy, 70–71, 155 “prosocial concern,” 62 psychoanalysis, 5, 144, 145, 216 psychological egoism, 72–74, 75–76 psychopaths (psychopathy), 42, 197–201 lack of self-control and malicious nature of, 42, 199–201 myth of pure evil, 181, 184 neuroscience of, 47, 71–73 Psychopathy Checklist, 197–201, 198 publication bias, 82–83 punishment, 161, 185, 186, 192, 195–96, 207, 209, 225 purity, 117–18, 224 qualia, and knowledge argument, 148 Rachels, James, 52 racial bias, 226 racism, 9, 48–49, 202–3 Rai, Tage, 184–85, 186 Raine, Adrian, 179 Rand, David, 7 rape, 23, 34, 35, 93, 182, 192, 206 rationality.

Life as a Passenger: How Driverless Cars Will Change the World
by David Kerrigan
Published 18 Jun 2017

MOD=AJPERES [348] https://www.automotiveisac.com/best-practices/ [349] https://techcrunch.com/2015/10/23/connected-car-security-separating-fear-from-fact/ [350] http://www.raymondloewy.com/about.html [351] https://www.ft.com/content/97a04f76-3494-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3 [352] http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-35301279 [353] https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2016/INCLA-PE16007-7876.PDF [354] http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/autos-driverless/ [355] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_marshmallow_experiment [356] https://www.scribd.com/document/333075344/Apple-Comments-on-Federal-Automated-Vehicles-Policy [357] Remarks at Infrastructure Week, May 2017 [358] Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, Carlota Perez, 2002 [359] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2014/10/14/move-over-humans-the-robocars-are-coming/ [360] https://www.cnet.com/uk/news/a-brief-history-of-the-qwerty-keyboard/ [361] http://www.wsj.com/articles/could-self-driving-cars-spell-the-end-of-ownership-1448986572 [362] https://www.morganstanley.com/articles/autonomous-cars-the-future-is-now [363] https://www.wired.com/2016/04/american-cities-nowhere-near-ready-self-driving-cars/ [364] Machiavelli, The Prince, Chapter 6 [365] http://time.com/4236980/against-human-driving/ [366] https://www.ft.com/content/e961f914-6ba3-11e6-ae5b-a7cc5dd5a28c [367] Paul Roberts, The Impulse Society: What's Wrong With Getting What We Want, 2014 [368] http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2033076,00.html [369] http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/da5d033c-8e1c-11e1-bf8f-00144feab49a.html#axzz1t4qPww6r [370] http://www.wbur.org/bostonomix/2016/04/29/traffic-future-driverless-cars

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Only in this case, we haven't decided on the driving test they’ll need to pass. We do know that the existing rules of the road are not fit for purpose - because they never envisaged that technology could replace the driver. Technology frequently if not always outpaces legislation and regulation. Regulators are facing what in psychology circles would be called the Marshmallow Test[355] - a quandary of immediate gratification over a bigger future benefit. If we allow driverless cars on the road too soon, they may actually cause preventable deaths, while the technology learns and improves. Yet, in order for them to learn, they need to operate on public roads, just as learner drivers do.

The Shame Machine: Who Profits in the New Age of Humiliation
by Cathy O'Neil
Published 15 Mar 2022

But they’re operating within ecosystems ruled by shame—and propped up by pseudoscientific research. One such study, which masterfully shifts blame onto the poor in the name of objectivity, is known as the marshmallow experiment. Administered by Walter Mischel, a psychologist at Stanford in the 1960s, it attempted to gauge young children’s capacity to master self-control. Mischel and his colleagues launched the experiment at a Stanford nursery school. Each child was given a marshmallow and told that they could eat it immediately. However, if they managed to resist the temptation and leave it intact, they would be awarded a second marshmallow later.

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Peake, “Predicting Adolescent Cognitive and Self-Regulatory Competencies from Preschool Delay of Gratification: Identifying Diagnostic Conditions,” Developmental Psychology 26, no. 6 (1990): 978–86, https://doi.org/​10.1037/​0012-1649.26.6.978. GO TO NOTE REFERENCE IN TEXT “But fools gulp theirs down”: Proverbs 21:20 (New International Version). GO TO NOTE REFERENCE IN TEXT while controlling for the parents’ income and education: Tyler W. Watts, Greg J. Duncan, and Haonan Quan, “Revisiting the Marshmallow Test: A Conceptual Replication Investigating Links between Early Delay of Gratification and Later Outcomes,” Psychological Science 29, no. 7 (2018): 1159–77, https://journals.sagepub.com/​doi/​10.1177/​0956797618761661. GO TO NOTE REFERENCE IN TEXT Chapter 4: “Your Vagina Is Fine” “It wasn’t that I didn’t know about feminine hygiene”: Krista Torres, “It Used to Be Common for Women to Use Lysol to Clean Their Vagina and Here’s Why,” BuzzFeed, May 22, 2020, https://www.buzzfeed.com/​kristatorres/​women-used-to-wash-their-vaginas-with-lysol-so-heres-how-an.

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What’s more, spending additional money to help the poor certainly wouldn’t help. They’d no doubt squander it just as impetuously as their kids gobbled marshmallows. This self-serving analysis, bolstered by questionable science, sustained the status quo and shamed the poor. But conclusions drawn from the marshmallow study crumbled under further scrutiny. In 2018, scientists replicated the experiment on a scale ten times as large, while controlling for the parents’ income and education. What they found was that the wealth and education of a child’s parents correlated far more closely to long-term success than anything to do with eating a marshmallow.

Ultra-Processed People: The Science Behind Food That Isn't Food
by Chris van Tulleken
Published 26 Jun 2023

Science 1989; 244: 933–38. 18 Mischel W, Ebbesen EB, Zeiss AR. Cognitive and attentional mechanisms in delay of gratification. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 1972; 21: 204–18. 19 Watts TW, Duncan GJ, Quan H. Revisiting the marshmallow test: a conceptual replication investigating links between early delay of gratification and later outcomes. Psychological Science 2018; 29: 1159–77. 20 Watts et al, 2018. 21 Falk A, Kosse F, Pinger P. Re-revisiting the marshmallow test: a direct comparison of studies by Shoda, Mischel, and Peake (1990) and Watts, Duncan, and Quan (2018). Psychological Science 2020; 31: 100–04. 22 Evans GW, English K. The environment of poverty: multiple stressor exposure, psychophysiological stress, and socioemotional adjustment.

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Child Development 2011; 82: 362–78. 26 The Economist. Desire delayed: Walter Mischel on the test that became his life’s work. 2014. Available from: https://www.economist.com/books-and-arts/2014/10/11/desire-delayed. 27 Gill D. New study disavows marshmallow test’s predictive powers. 2021. https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/new-study-disavows-marshmallow-tests-predictive-powers/. 10. How UPF hacks our brains 1 Library of Congress. Who “invented” the TV dinner? 2019. Available from: https://www.loc.gov/everyday-mysteries/food-and-nutrition/item/who-invented-the-tv-dinner/. 2 Lynch, B. Understanding opportunities in the chilled ready meals category in the UK. 2021.

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Revealingly, when scientists compared children from mothers without degrees, they found that it made no difference to life outcomes whether or not the child had held off eating that marshmallow. It is the child’s social and economic background, not whether they can resist a marshmallow, that determines children’s long-term success. So, the marshmallow test may well be simply a test for poverty.# So much of who we are is determined by the structure of the world around us. You can’t exert willpower over the system of weight regulation produced by the half a billion years of the second age of eating, any more than you can exert it over your long-term oxygen or water intake.

The Third Pillar: How Markets and the State Leave the Community Behind
by Raghuram Rajan
Published 26 Feb 2019

For instance, one study finds that children of professional families hear more spoken words—about 2,100 per hour—compared to 1,200 per hour in working-class families and 600 per hour in families on welfare.13 This means the child in a professional family typically hears millions more words every year than a child in a family on welfare, which naturally boosts both the child’s vocabulary and its ability to speak relative to its peers. The famous Stanford marshmallow test and follow-up studies suggest that professional families give their children more than just learning—they give them trust and self-control. In the early 1960s, Walter Mischel and his graduate students gave little children from Stanford University’s Bing Nursery School the choice between eating a marshmallow immediately, or waiting and getting a second marshmallow after fifteen minutes or so if they could hold out. Videos of the torments children go through as they stare at the marshmallow have been an enormous source of entertainment for adults, but Mischel found something more.

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R., 287 American Medical Association, 137, 207 Amish, 8 amoral familism, 14 Antitrust Paradox, The (Bork), 202 antitrust regulators, 202 apathy, 113–15, 347 Apple, 178, 182–83, 383 Arab Spring, 330 aristocracy, 54–56, 72, 78, 87 Aristotle, 21, 39, 40, 48 Arthashastra, 31 Augustine, St., 39 authoritarianism, xvii, xviii, 97, 106, 108–9, 112, 139, 160, 244, 253, 257, 274 legitimacy-seeking, 253 automobiles, 152, 179–80, 261 automation, xii, xviii, 3, 18, 84, 179, 180, 143–44, 175, 178, 185–87, 284, 314, 324 Autor, David, 185 Bacon, Francis, 41 Bakunin, Mikhail, 91 Banfield, Edward, 12–14, 227 Bank of England, 68, 69 banks, 15–16, 72, 104, 178–79, 209, 219, 381, 385, 386 Global Financial Crisis and, 237–39, 358 inflation and, 366 regulation of, 358–60 Baosteel Group, 253 Barry, Ellen, 19–20 Basel Accords, 358, 360 Basix, 336, 337 “beggar thy neighbor” policies, 364 “beggar thyself” policies, 364 Bell, Daniel, 257 Beveridge, William, 155–56 Beveridge Report, 155–56, 318, 319, 321 Bible, 119 usury and, 31–32, 34, 48 Billington, Elizabeth, 193 Bismarck, Otto von, 112, 132 Black Death, 40, 41–42 BoBos (bourgeois bohemians), 218 Bohannan, Laura, 7–8 Boldrin, Michele, 382–83 Boleyn, Anne, 54 Book of Rates, 63 borders, 290, 351–54, 371 Bork, Robert, 202 Bowling Alone (Putnam), 334 Bretton Woods system, 160, 169 Brexit, 242 Britain, see England; United Kingdom Brooks, David, 218, 227 Bryan, William Jennings, 100 bubonic plague (Black Death), 40, 41–42 Burnham, Daniel, xxviii Bush, George W., 158 Calvin, John, 47–49, 82 Calvinism, 47–49, 55, 82, 86, 218 Canada, 294, 298, 342, 368 cannons, 42–44, 51 capitalism, 145, 147 Calvinism and, 47–48 in China, 252–55 crony, 99, 106, 108–9, 257–58 Marxist view of, 88–90 Weber’s view of, 47 Capitalism for the People, A (Zingales), 200 caregivers, 319–20 Carlyle, Thomas, 83 cars, 152, 179–80, 261 Carter, Jimmy, 163, 165, 235 Catholic Church, 29, 42, 49–50, 57, 59, 66–67, 72 Councils of, 34 monasteries of, 54, 57, 72 Papal Revolution in, 38, 40 Reformation and, 40–41, 47, 49 reform in attitudes toward business and interest, 47–49 state and, 45–46 usury and, 34–42, 44–46, 49 wealth of, 44–45 Celler-Kefauver Act, 380 CEOs, 193–94, 198–99, 209 Chandragupta Maurya, 31 Charles I, King, 66 Chernow, Ron, 85 Chetty, Raj, xvi Chicago, Ill., xxii, xxiii, 308, 312, 340–41 Pilsen community in, xxii–xxvi, 12, 298, 344, 381 Chicago Tribune, xxiii chickens, 354–55, 357 children, 222–31 meritocracy and, 224–25, 228 China, xxviii, 42, 97, 144, 145, 147, 185, 245, 246, 291, 342, 352 aging population in, 260, 292 anti-corruption campaign in, 261, 265 capitalism in, 252–55 change in, 258–64 Communist Party in, 144, 247–67 construction sector in, 275 crony competition in, 257–58 Deng in, 249–52, 265, 278 Global Financial Crisis and, 258, 259 growth of, 258, 368–69 households in, 255–56, 259–60, 263–64 imports from, 185 income inequality in, 260 India compared with, 247–48, 267, 269, 270, 275–76 infrastructure in, 259 internet and, 266, 350 liberalization in, 248–67, 276 Maoism in, 247, 248–50 medieval, 20–21 meritocracy in, 257, 265 one-child policy in, 260 in Opium Wars, 349–50 path not taken in, 249–52 populist nationalism in, 276–79 social credit system proposed in, 266 state, markets, and democracy in, 264–67 technology and, 261–62, 278 Tiananmen Square protests in, 250–51 United States and, 278 Xiushui Market in Beijing, 255 Church, see Catholic Church citizenship, 290, 295–99, 302 global, 369 civic nationalism, 297–99, 302 Civil Rights movement, 138, 157, 229, 230, 235 Clay, Lucius, 150 climate change, xii, 245, 284, 365, 396–97 Clinton, Hillary, 235 Coleman, James, 225 colleges and universities, 190–91, 220–21, 308–9, 340 credentials and, 233–34, 317 communications technology: community and, 330–35 see also Information and Communications Technology (ICT) revolution; internet communism, xvii, 91, 97, 145–47 in China, 144, 247–67 in France, 168 community(ies), xiii, xxvii, 1–22, 25, 243, 283, 285–87, 297, 303–4, 325, 392, 393, 394 alternatives and, 15–17 assets of, 339–41 in the balance, 107–40 benefits of, 327–29 common themes in revival of, 338 communications technology and, 330–35 competition between, 306–7, 329 conflict resolution in, 9–10 crime and drug abuse in, 343–44 dealing with failure in, 347–48 definition of, xiv downsides of, 329 dysfunctional, xiii, xix, 12–15, 173, 227, 325, 378 economic segregation in, 307–9 economic value of, 11 Elberfeld system in, 129–31, 320 engagement in, 344–45 feudal, see feudalism, feudal communities financing revival in, 346–47 Galena, 337–38, 339, 344 ICT revolution and, xviii–xx, 176, 184–88 importance of, xiv–xviii and importance of location, 219–21 and incentive to change, 18–19 Indore, 335–37, 339, 344 infrastructure and, 309–11 insular, costs of, 19–21 leadership in, 339, 344–45 local government, xiv, xv, xvi, 11–12, 286, 305, 311–13 localizing powers and public services in, 306–13 and loss of faith in markets, 115–19 market adjustments and, 388–91 outside choice and, 15, 18, 19 people as assets in, 342–43 physically proximate, 1–4, 327–30, 335–45, 395 Pilsen, xxii–xxvi, 12, 298, 344, 381 as political training ground, xvii positive roles of, 4–10 regulations and, 285, 304, 306–7, 341, 357 reinvigorating, xx–xxi, 327–48, 352, 395 relief efforts from, 131–33 safety net and, 127–38, 318–25 schools and, 119–25, 225–28, 232–34, 313–18 separation of markets and state from, xiv–xv social relationships in, 7–8 sorting and, see residential sorting state and, 303–25, 345–46 tax incentives and, 345 technology and, 119, 335, 344–45 trade and, xviii–xx, 335, 352 training and socializing of young in, 5–7 transactions in, 3, 8–9, 10–11 value of, 10–12 values in, and tolerance for markets, 390–92 varieties of, 2, 329–35 village, 4 virtual, 327, 329, 330 compass, 41–42, 43 competition, xxii, 52, 64, 71, 84–87, 89, 91, 105, 106, 108–10, 139, 145, 176, 207–8, 283, 374, 392, 393 between communities, 306–7, 329 curbs on, 138 enhancing, 379–86 European Union and, 208–9 monopolies and, see monopolies non-compete agreements, 205, 206, 387 patent protection and, 383 preservation of, in U.S., 98–105 property rights and, 286 regulation and, 165, 387–88 scaring away, 203–6 computers, 117, 175, 185, 186, 314 see also Information and Communications Technology revolution; internet Confessions (Augustine), 39 conflict resolution, 9–10 consensus politics, 153 construction, 275 Constitution, U.S., 71 constitutional patriotism, 298 constitutions, 285 Consumer Price Index (CPI), 189 copyhold tenancy, 36 copyright laws, 204–6 corporations, 173, 176, 194, 195, 206, 355–56, 373–74 CEOs of, 193–94, 198–99, 209 and change in attitudes toward profit and incomes, 195–201 European, 209 lobbying by, 378, 389 monopolies by, see monopolies new business creation, 201–7, 380–81 profit maximization and value maximization in, 374–79 social responsibility of, 378–79 corruption, 98–100, 109, 114, 138 in China, 261, 265 in India, 272 Cowen, Tyler, 161 Crecy, battle of, 42 crime, 343–44 Cristo Rey Catholic School, xxiv Cromwell, Oliver, 66 cronyism, 99, 106, 108–9, 113–15, 139, 176, 244, 274, 184, 352, 392 in China, 257–58 in India, 268, 269 data, as market power, 384–86 David, Paul, 161 debt contract, 29–31 see also loans de la Croix, David, 20 democracy(ies), xxvii, 79, 91, 97, 98, 118, 143, 160, 172, 218, 244, 319, 352, 357, 371, 380, 396 crony, 113–15 illiberal, 113 in India, 268–70, 272–74 markets and, 106, 110 public hearings and, 389–90 Democrats, 235–36, 240 Deng Xiaoping, 249–52, 265, 278 Depression, Great, see Great Depression Depression of 1893, 133, 134 developing countries, 245 Dewey, John, 124–25, 227 Dickens, Charles, 129 diversity, 128, 134, 148, 177, 284, 287, 289, 302, 357 benefits of, 290–95 costs of, 293–95 see also immigration, immigrants divorce, 235 Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, 204 Doepke, Matthias, 20 Douthat, Ross, 235 Dream Hoarders (Reeves), 224 drugs, drug companies, 183, 184, 204, 354, 362–63, 384 East India Company, 68, 69 Economist, 202 Edison, Thomas, 117 education and schools, xx, 6, 72, 83, 140, 158, 162, 221, 228–29, 283, 286, 290, 305, 308–9, 343 colleges and universities, see colleges and universities community and, 119–25, 225–28, 232–34, 313–18 credentials and, 233–34, 317, 393 decentralization in, 316 decline in school quality, 232–34 in France, 125–27, 317 GI Bill and, 156, 157 new tools and methods in, 314–15 paying for, 317–18 segregation and, 229–30 teachers, 102–3 technological progress and, 122–23 in U.S., 119–25, 127, 190–91, 233–34, 317 worker capabilities and, 313–18 Einstein, Albert, 384 Einsweiler, Frank, 337, 339 Elberfeld system, 129–31, 320 Ellikson, Robert, 9–10 emerging markets, 245, 271 see also China; India Engels, Frederick, 88, 90 Engerman, Stanley, 72, 96 England, 52, 59–60, 64–65, 67, 73, 132–33 agricultural laborer revolt in, 94–95 Chartist movement in, 95 Civil War in, 66, 70 Declaration of Rights in, 67–68, 71 emergence as constitutionally limited state, 52–74, 83 Glorious Revolution in, 67–71 Industrial Revolution in, see Industrial Revolution Parliament in, 57, 60–62, 65–70, 74, 77, 84, 105 Poor Law in, 19, 84 Stuarts in, 52, 58, 65–67, 73, 108 Tudors in, 51–54, 73 voting rights in, 92, 94–95 William and Mary in, 67 environment, 365, 371–72, 396 climate change, xii, 245, 284, 365, 396–97 Erhard, Ludwig, 154 Essay on the Principles of Population, An (Malthus), 83 ethnicity and race, xxi–xxii, 298, 397 residential sorting and, 229–31 see also African Americans; diversity; immigration, immigrants; minorities ethnic nationalism, 215–16 populist, 216–17; see also populist nationalism Europe, 52, 59, 74, 160, 167–68, 236, 368, 370 feudalism in, see feudalism, feudal communities immigration in, 144, 159, 167, 210, 241–43 inequalities in, 177 populist nationalism in, 241–43 regulators in, 359 safety nets in, 156 after World War II, 148–54 European Coal and Steel Community, 150 European Economic Community (EEC), 150 European Payment Services Directive, 385 European Payments Union, 150 European Union (EU), 168–73, 208–10, 310, 369, 370 Brexit and, 242 competition and, 208–9 creation of, 168 currency integration in, 169, 237 immigration crisis and, 242 loss of sovereignty in, 171–72 poultry farms in, 355, 356 Stability and Growth Pact in, 169, 170 factories, 18, 78, 88–89, 104, 185 fairness, 115–16 Fallows, Deborah, 344 Fallows, James, 344 families, 231, 235 familism, amoral, 14 Farmers’ Alliance, 23 fascism, xvii, 97, 138, 145, 153 Fault Lines (Rajan), xxvi Federal Reserve, 104, 163, 366 feudalism, feudal communities, xxvii, 19, 25, 35–36, 42, 51–52, 55, 64, 73, 74, 83, 84, 91, 92 and Church’s attack on usury, 34–40 commercial revolution and, 36–39 technology and, 41–42 financial crises: technological change and, 118, 119 of 2007–2008, see Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2008 in U.S., 87–88, 118 Food and Drug Administration, 387 Forastie, Jean, 153 Forbes 400, 192 Ford, Gerald, 235 Ford, Henry, 179–80 France, 59, 145, 168, 246, 298 in European Union, 169, 170 income in, 191, 192 in postwar period, 150, 152–54 Revolution in, 74, 94, 125–26 schooling in, 125–27, 317 free-rider problem, 17 Friedman, Milton, 139–40, 164, 195–201, 375, 377 Friedman, Rose, 139–40 Furstenberg, Carl, 209 G7 nations, 368 Galena, Ill., 337–38, 339, 344 gaming, 334 Gandhi, Indira, 269, 271 Gandhi, Mohandas K., 281, 298 Gao, Xiaohui, 201 Gaud, Malinil, 336, 339 GDP, 163, 164 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), 146, 150, 353 gentry, 54–58, 64–66, 71, 72 Gentzkow, Matt, 332–33 Germany, 73, 74, 162, 236, 238, 241 Elberfeld system of assistance in, 129–31, 320 in European Union, 169–71 income in, 191, 192 migrants and foreign workers in, 159, 242 Nazi, 112, 157, 380 in postwar period, 150, 153, 154 social insurance in, 132, 156 state and industry linked in, 111–12 Giersch, Herbert, 167 Giving Pledge, 396 Glaeser, Edward, 98, 137 Glass-Steagall Act, 104 Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2008, xiii, xxvi, xxviii, 88, 144, 199, 204, 213, 236–43, 353–54, 358, 370, 393 China and, 258, 259 global governance, 245–46, 367–70 globalization, 371–72 gold, 100, 101 Goldin, Claudia, 98 Goldstein, Amy, 186 Google, 201, 203, 350, 386 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 251 Gordon, Robert, 161 government, governance, xv, 107, 139, 394 centralization of, 51 deficits, 162–64, 324 federal, xiii–xiv, xvi; see also state global, 245–46, 367–70 local, xiv, xv, xvi, 11–12, 286, 305, 311–13; see also community promises made by, 145–73, 324–25 promotion of views in, 107 Grant, Ulysses S., 98, 337 Great Britain, see England; United Kingdom Great Depression, xxvii, 88, 119, 134–38, 139, 145–47, 151, 157, 210, 237, 364 safety nets in the U.S. before, 133–34 Great Recession, xiii, 238, 334 Great Society, 158 Greece, 145, 170, 237, 238, 359 Gregory VII, Pope, 38, 54 guilds, 58–62, 64, 81 gunpowder, 41–42 Gutenberg, Johannes, 46 Habermas, Jurgen, 298 Hampton, Keith, 331 handloom weavers, 18–19, 116, 188 Hanson, Gordon, 185 Harrington, James, 58 Hart, Oliver, 11 Harvard University, 98, 137, 197, 233, 242, 293, 362, 364, 371, 389 Hayek, Friedrich, 91, 164 health care, 156, 162–63, 318–19, 324 Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), 144, 214, 239–41 drugs, 183, 184, 204, 354, 362–63 training and wages in, 388 in U.K., 156 in U.S., 158, 203 Heckman, James, 6, 223, 225, 226 Hendren, Nathaniel, xvi Henry VII, King, 53–54 Henry VIII, King, 54, 57 Hicks, John, 99 Hillbilly Elegy (Vance), 300–301 Hochschild, Arlie Russell, 239–40 Holland, 65 housing, 237, 307–9 Hsieh, Chang-Tai, 220, 253, 258 Huang, Yasheng, 251 Hume, David, 63 Hurst, Erik, 333–34 Icahn, Carl, 197 ICT, see Information and Communications Technology revolution Idea of India, The (Khilnani), 298 Ignatieff, Michael, 299 immigration, immigrants, xvi, xviii, 121, 134, 137, 147, 148, 159–60, 173, 218, 219, 245, 284, 286, 289, 297, 302, 348 benefits of, 290–95 distressed communities and, 342 in Europe, 144, 159, 167, 210, 241–43 Harvard study on, 242, 293 Japan and, 292–93 Muslim, 241, 242 population aging and, 260, 284, 286, 292–93, 396 residential sorting and, 229–31 talent and, 290–91 in U.S., 137, 159–60, 292 inclusive civic nationalism, 297–99, 302 inclusive localism, xxii, 22, 285–87, 289–302, 327, 351, 394 income and wages, 90, 127, 152, 213, 388, 395, 396 dispersion across US cities, 220 of doctors, 388 Earned Income Tax Credit and, 345–46 economic segregation and, 307–9 effects of technology and trade on, 188–94 median wage, 189–91 occupational licensing and, 207 top one percent, 102, 191–94 universal basic income, 322–23 India, xxvi, xxviii, 19–20, 31, 113–15, 139, 144, 245, 246, 267–74, 287, 298, 317, 350, 391 affirmative action in, 300–302 bribery in, 312 China compared with, 247–48, 267, 269, 270, 275–76 corruption in, 272 cronyism in, 268, 269 decentralization in, 270, 272 democracy in, 268–70, 272–74 economic growth of villages in, 275 Finance Ministry in, 274 Indore, 335–37, 339, 344 land acquisition for public projects in, 275–76 liberalization in, 269–71, 273, 276 populism in, 272, 276–78 Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh in, xix, 277 socialism in, 267–69, 391 state, markets, and democracy in, 272–74 individualism, 194–96, 201, 284 Indore, 335–37, 339, 344 industrialization, 75, 88, 127, 275 Industrial Revolution(s), 16, 18, 26, 70, 74, 78, 84, 87, 91, 230 First, 116–17 Fourth, 117 handloom weavers and, 18–19, 116, 188 Second, 117–19, 122, 146, 147, 152, 153, 160–61 Third, 117 in U.S., 121 see also Information and Communications Technology (ICT) revolution inflation, 56–57, 163, 164, 366 Information and Communications Technology (ICT) revolution, xii–xiii, xxi, xxviii, 117, 148, 161, 162, 175–211, 213, 313, 321–22, 338, 340, 382, 393, 394 automation in, xii, xviii, 3, 143–44, 175, 178, 185–87, 314 communities and, xviii–xx, 176, 184–88 decentralization and, 312–13 interconnected world and, 350–51 jobs and, 143–44, 173, 175, 177–88, 395 trade and, 143–44, 173, 181–88 inheritance, 37, 45, 105 Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, An (Smith), 80 intellectual property, 73, 183, 278, 351, 362–63, 382–84 patents, 204–6, 362, 382–84 International Monetary Fund (IMF), xxvi, 146, 151, 270, 367, 368–69 international responsibilities, 363–67, 372, 397 internet, 117, 310 China and, 266, 350 community and, 330–35 political views and, 332–33 Ireland, 237, 238, 353–54 Italy, 145, 162, 303–4, 359 in European Union, 169 Montegrano, 12–14, 113, 227 in postwar period, 149, 152 Jackson, Andrew, 93 James I, King, 66–67 Jams II, King, 70 Janesville, Wisc., 341 Janesville (Goldstein), 186 Japan, 157, 160, 302, 368, 380 aging population in, 292–93 currency in, 366 immigration and, 292–93 income in, 191 in postwar period, 148, 153 protectionism in, 354 Jeffers, Jessica, 205 Jefferson, Thomas, 58 Jensen, Michael, 196 Jiang Zemin, 251 jobs, xii, xviii, 163, 164, 224, 343, 389, 395 African Americans and, 230–31 credentials and, 233–34, 317, 393 ICT revolution and, 143–44, 173, 175, 177–88, 395 and lump of labor fallacy, 180 mercantilism and, 62–63 occupational licensing and, 206–7, 387–88, 393 Second Industrial Revolution and, 122 see also income and wages; workers Johnson, Lyndon, 157–58, 229 Juncker, Jean-Claude, 172 Jungle, The (Sinclair), 104 Justice, US Department of, 202 Kahn, Alfred, 165 Kalanick, Travis, 196 Kaplan, Steve, 192 Katz, Bruce, 303 Kautilya, 31 Keynes, John Maynard, 154, 163, 395 Khan, Khizr, xxi Khilnani, Sunil, 298 Khodorkovsky, Mikhail, 111 Kim, Han, 220 King, Martin Luther, Jr., 157, 158, 397 Kleiner, Morris, 207 knowledge, diffusion of, 204–6 Krueger, Alan, 207 Kyoto Protocol, 365 laissez-faire, 77–78, 81, 83 landowners, 37, 58, 72, 74 gentry, 54–58, 64–66, 71, 72 Lasch, Christopher, 227 Latin America, 72, 93, 96 Lee Kuan Yew, 247 LEGO, 391 lending, see loans Le Pen, Marine, 236 Lerner, Josh, 362 Levine, David, 382–83 liberal democracy, 74–75 liberalism, 83, 160 liberalization, 206 in China, 248–67, 276 in India, 269–71, 273, 276 private sector’s reaction to, 194–201, 207–8 liberal market democracies, xiii, xx, xxvii libertarianism, 115 limited-access societies, 97–98 Lindsey, Brink, 205 loans, 44–45, 48 contract in, 29–31 see also usury lobbying, 378, 389 localism, xxi, xxviii, 285, 286, 303 inclusive, xxii, 22, 285–87, 289–302, 327, 351, 394 long-term benefits of, 303 location, importance of, 219–21 Long, Huey, 136 looms, 18–19, 116, 188 Louis XIV, King, 60, 65, 66 Luce, Edward, 227 Luther, Martin, 46 Madison, James, 97, 218 magnates, decline of, 53–54 Mahajan, Vijay, 337 Malthus, Thomas Robert, 83 Mann, Horace, 121 manufacturing, 152, 184–85, 206 Mao Zedong, 247–50 markets, xiii, xv, xvii–xviii, xx, xxii, xxvii–xxviii, 25–27, 50, 56, 77–106, 145, 154, 172, 173, 243–44, 283, 184, 285–87, 304, 393, 394 community adjustment to, 388–92 community and state buffers against volatility in, 127–38 community loss of faith in, 115–19 community values and, 390–92 competition in, see competition data in, 384–86 definition of, xiv democracy and, 106, 110 emerging, 245, 271; see also China; India fairness in, 115–16 freeing, 80–81 laissez-faire and, 77–78, 81, 83 liberalization of, see liberalization liberal market democracies, xiii, xx, xxvii perceived legitimacy of players in, 110–12 philosophy for, 81–84 reforming, 373–92 separation from community, xiv–xv state and, 304 transactions in, 3, 4 unbridled, 84–87 see also trade marriage, 231, 235 Marshall Plan, 149–51, 365 marshmallow test, 222–23 Marx, Karl, 49, 78, 87–91 Marxism, 87–91, 112, 115, 249, 287 Maximum Feasible Misunderstanding (Moynihan), 158 McClure’s Magazine, 103 McKinley, William, 106 McLean, Malcolm, 181 meatpacking industry, 104, 107–8 Medicare, 241, 324 mercantilism, 62–65, 80 Merchant of Venice, The (Shakespeare), 30 meritocracy, 390, 393 children and, 224–25, 228 in China, 257, 265 Merkel, Angela, 241 military technologies, 42–44, 51, 53 Mill, Harriet, 81 Mill, John Stuart, 81–83 minorities, 218, 219, 289, 296–97 affirmative action and, 300–302 see also African Americans; immigration, immigrants Mischel, Walter, 223 misery index, 163 Mitterand, François, 168 Mokyr, Joel, 20, 21 monarchy, 51–53, 56–59, 61–63, 65, 73 monasteries, 54, 57, 72 moneylending, see loans Monnet, Jean, 154 monopolies, 58–62, 64, 80, 81, 87, 91, 97, 99, 105, 106, 108, 109, 112, 201–7, 283, 379–82 antitrust laws and, 101, 103–4, 381–82 Montegrano, 12–14, 113, 227 Moore, Barrington, 73 Moretti, Enrico, 220 Morgan, John Pierpont, 99, 104 Morse, Adair, 220 Moynihan, Daniel Patrick, 158, 340 multilateral institutions, 367–70 Murphy, Kevin, 196 Murray, Charles, 227 muskets, 42–43 Muslims, 21, 35, 36, 241, 242, 272, 277 Napoleon I, 126 nationalism, xvii, 64, 184, 330, 397 civic, 297–99, 302 ethnic, 215–17; see also populist nationalism mercantilism and, 63 populist, see populist nationalism Nation at Risk, A, 232–33 nation-states, 26, 42, 50, 51–52, 61–62 Nehru, Jawaharlal, 267, 270, 287, 298 neighborhoods, 297 isolation index and, 333 sorting and, see residential sorting see also community Netville, 331–32 Neumann, Franz, 112 New Deal, 134–35 New Localism, The (Katz and Nowak), 303 news consumption, and diversity of opinions, 332–33 New York Times, 19, 98, 218, 387 Nixon, Richard, 98, 108 North, Douglass, 70, 97 Nowak, Jeremy, 303 Obama, Barack, xvii, 158, 235, 240 India visited by, 273 Obama, Michelle, 240 Obamacare, 144, 214, 239–41 Oceana (Harrington), 58 oil industry, 84–86, 99, 103, 107, 111 Oliver, Douglas, 9 one percent, 102, 191–94 On Liberty (Mill), 81–83 open-access societies, 98 Opium Wars, 349–50 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 189–90 Our Towns: A 100,000-Mile Journey into the Heart of America (Fallows and Fallows), 344 Owen, Robert, 88 Owens, Ann, 226 Papal Revolution, 38, 40 parents, 222–31, 343 Paris Agreement, 365 parliaments, 77, 78–79 English, 57, 60–62, 65–70, 74, 77, 84, 105 patents, 204–6, 362, 382–84 patriotism, 298 peasants, 37–38, 73, 74, 78 see also feudalism, feudal communities Peltzman, Sam, 202 Perez, Carlotta, 118 Petersen, Mitchell, 15, 219 pharmaceutical drugs and companies, 183, 184, 204, 354, 362–63, 384 Physiocrats, 77 Piketty, Thomas, 191 Pilsen community, xxii–xxvi, 12, 298, 344, 381 Pirenne, Henri, 45 plague (Black Death), 40, 41–42 Polanyi, Karl, 84 police officers, 312 politics: conflict over, 234–36 isolation index and, 332–33 left-wing, xiii, xix, xxvii, 214, 217, 394 right-wing, xiii, xix, 214–17, 394 Polybius, 118 population aging, 260, 284, 286, 292–93, 324, 342–43, 348, 396 population diversity, see diversity population growth, 83, 152, 162–63 populism, xiii, xix, xxviii, 63, 136, 137, 211, 213–44, 284 in China, 276–79 and conflict over values and politics, 234–36 in Europe, 241–43 Global Financial Crisis and, 236–43 growing divide and, 218–19 in India, 272, 276–78 left-wing, 214, 217 Obamacare and, 239–41 Populist movement at turn of nineteenth century, 23, 26, 79, 98–101, 102, 105–6, 112, 244, 265 reemergence in the industrial West, 213–44 right-wing, 214–17 types of, 214–18 populist nationalism, xiii, xix–xx, xxi, xxvii, 144, 216–17, 241–44, 246, 276–79, 286, 289, 295–300, 302, 352, 353 in China, 276–79 in Europe, 241–43 in India, 276–78 why it cannot work, 296–97 Populist Revolt, The (Hicks), 99 Portugal, 148, 238 Poterba, James, 140 poultry farms, 354–55, 357 poverty, 396 African Americans and, 157 Elberfeld system of assistance, 129–31, 320 War on, 158, 160, 229 Powell, Enoch, 159 presidential election of 2016, 235, 236, 333, 354 Price, Brendan, 185 Princeton University, 125 printing press, 41–42, 46 private sector, 107–8, 111, 139, 147, 283, 284, 352, 371 liberalization and, 194–201, 207–8 Progressives, 26, 79, 98–99, 102–6, 112, 124, 134, 137, 244, 265 property, 26, 52, 57, 58, 74, 79, 83, 103, 115, 352, 362, 374, 394 competition and, 286 intellectual, see intellectual property land, see landowners taxes on, 121, 123 as theft, 110–11 protectionism, 108, 258–59, 278, 306, 353–56, 364 Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, The (Weber), 47 Protestant Reformation, 40–41, 47, 49 Protestants, 48, 49 public hearings, 389–90 Putnam, Robert, 227, 334 Quakers, 16–17, 230 race, see ethnicity and race race to the bottom, 358–60 railroad industry, 85, 87, 99, 101 Ramanathan, Swati, 312 Ramcharan, Rodney, 72 ranchers, 9–10, 11 Rand, Ayn, 80, 391 R&D, 183–84 Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), xix, 277 Rauh, Joshua, 192 Rawls, John, 115 Raymundo, Raul, xxiii, xxvi Reagan, Ronald, 165, 194, 232 Reeves, Richard, 224 Reformation, 40–41, 47, 49 regulation(s), 103–5, 107–8, 165, 172 antitrust, 202 of banks, 358–60 communities and, 285, 304, 306–7, 341, 357 competition and, 165, 387–88 deregulation, 165–67, 194, 197 harmonization of, 354–63, 365, 371 relief efforts, 131–33, 135 see also safety nets religion, 49, 51, 64 Protestant Reformation, 40–41, 47, 49 Protestants, 48, 49 see also Catholic Church Republicans, 235–36 residential sorting, 144, 177, 222, 227, 314 by income, 307–9 race and immigration and, 229–31 resources, policies on, 365 Resurrection Project, xxiii–xxvi Ritter, Jay, 201 Robinson, James, 94 Rockefeller, John D., 84–91, 98, 103, 104, 108, 200 Rodgers, Daniel, 334 Rodrik, Dani, 364–65, 371 Roman Republic, 58 Romney, Mitt, 235 Roosevelt, Franklin, 134–37, 156 Roosevelt, Theodore, 106 Rosen, Sherwin, 193 Russell, John, 95 Russia, 97, 287, 292, 354, 369 wealthy in, 111 Saez, Emmanuel, 191 safety nets, 139, 173, 290 caregivers and, 319–20 community and, 127–38, 318–25 in Europe, 156 government support in, 322–24 health care, see health care paying for, 324–25 for peasants, 37–38 in U.K., 155–56 in U.S., 133–34, 156, 157–58, 320–21, 324 welfare, 129, 137, 148, 158, 230 Salam, Reihan, 235 Sandel, Michael, 389–90 Sanders, Bernie, 214 Satyanath, Shaker, 112 schools, see education and schools Schumpeter, Joseph, 203, 379 Schwartz, Heather, 225–26 science, 21 “Second Coming, The” (Yeats), 141 Second Federal Bank, xxv SeeClickFix, 311–12 Sen, Amartya, 287 Shakespeare, William, 30 Shapiro, Jesse, 332–33 Share Our Wealth Society plan, 136 Shleifer, Andrei, 197 Sinclair, Upton, 104 Singapore, 247, 291, 318 Singh, Manish, 336 Singh, Manmohan, 270 Siuai people, 9 smartphones, 175, 178, 182–83 Smith, Adam, 17, 64, 77, 80–81, 83, 84, 87, 91, 105, 200 Smoot Hawley Act, 138 socialism, 132, 138, 145–47, 168, 250 in India, 267–69, 391 socializing the young, 5–7 social media, 330, 354, 386 social relationships, 7–8 social safety nets, see safety nets Social Security, 134–38, 187, 241, 324 Sokoloff, Kenneth, 72, 96 sorting, see residential sorting South Sea Company, 68, 69–70 sovereignty, 349–72 and controlling flows, 351–54 and harmonization of regulation, 354–63 Soviet Union, 91, 145–47, 153–54, 250, 251, 267, 287, 367 Spain, 148, 162, 169, 237, 238, 353–54 Spence, Michael, 234 stagflation, 163 Standard Oil, 86, 99, 103, 107 Stanford marshmallow test, 222–23 state, xiii, xv, xvii–xviii, xx–xxi, xxvii–xxviii, 25–27, 50, 139, 140, 172, 283–86, 304, 393 anti-state ideology and, 176 buffers against market volatility, 127–38 Church and, 45–46 community and, 303–25, 345–46 constitutionally limited, 52–74, 83 definition of, xiii–xiv growth of, 145 international responsibilities and, 363–67, 372, 397 laissez-faire and, 77–78, 81, 83 markets and, 304 relief efforts from, 131–33 separation from community, xiv–xv strong but limited, rise of, 51–75 sustainable financing for, 65–71 steel industries, 87, 99, 122, 185, 186, 253, 261, 338, 364, 366 European Coal and Steel Community, 150 student loans, 317–18 suffrage, see voting, suffrage Summers, Larry, 197 Supreme Court, U.S., 103, 384 Sweden, 138 Swift, Taylor, 193 Talleyrand, Charles Maurice de, 66 Tarbell, Ida, 103, 200 tariffs, 61, 63–64, 80–81, 100, 108, 138, 150–51, 164, 181–83, 217, 242, 258–59, 271, 277, 352–53, 356, 363, 364, 366, 371 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, 146, 150, 353 Tawney, Richard, 34–35, 46 taxes, 59, 61–62, 102–5, 156–57, 163–64, 206, 308–9, 364 for education, 121, 123 property, 121, 123 tax holidays, 341 tax incentives, 345 on towns, 59–60 universal basic income and, 322–23 tax preparation, 179, 180 Tea Party movement, 239–41, 242, 333 technology, xii, xxviii, 117, 160–62, 175–76, 283, 284, 286, 287 automation in, 18, 84, 179, 180, 284 China and, 261–62, 278 community and, 119, 335, 344–45 disruptive change from, xii–xiii, xix education and, 122–23 feudal community and, 41–42 financial crises and, 118 incomes and, 188–94 job losses from, xii, xviii public anxiety about, 116–18 winner-take-most effects of, 191–94 see also Industrial Revolution; Information and Communications Technology revolution Teles, Steven, 205 Thatcher, Margaret, 165–66, 194 three pillars, xiii, 25–27, 393, 394 balance between, xvii–xviii, 175, 394 see also community; markets; state Tiananmen Square protests, 250–51 Tiv people, 7–8 Tönnies, Ferdinand, 3–4 totalitarian regimes, 97 trade, 62–64, 80–81, 143, 146, 149–51, 154, 160, 164–65, 172, 181, 245, 271, 283, 307, 352–53, 363, 371 “beggar thy neighbor” policies and, 364 communications costs and, 181, 182 communities and, xviii–xx, 335, 352 European, with Muslim lands, 36 ICT revolution and, 143–44, 173, 181–88 incomes and, 188–94 protectionism and, 108, 258–59, 278, 306, 353–56, 364 tariffs and, see tariffs transportation costs and, 181–82 Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights Agreement (TRIPS), 362 training and socializing the young, 5–7 transactions: in communities, 3, 8–9, 10–11 market, 3, 4 Trotsky, Leon, 90 Trump, Donald, 235 Truly Disadvantaged, The (Wilson), 230 Turkey, xix, 97, 167, 190, 245 Uber, 196 Unified Payments Interface (UPI), 386 unions, 165, 198, 206, 360, 361 United Kingdom, 173 Companies Act in, 377 health care in, 156 income in, 191, 192 in Opium Wars, 349–50 safety net in, 155–56 United Nations, 367 United States, 143, 145, 149, 246, 298 African Americans in, see African Americans agriculture in, 184 China and, 278 Civil War in, 74, 93, 133–34 competitive market in, 98–105 Constitution of, 71 diversity in population of, 134 financial crises in, 87–88, 118 GI Bill in, 156, 157 Gilded Age in, 87 gold standard in, 100 government debt in, 324 growth of, 148, 162 health care in, 158, 203 hegemony of, 148, 367–69 immigration and, 137, 159–60, 292 Industrial Revolution in, 121 manufacturing in, 184–85 Marshall Plan of, 149–51, 365 in postwar period, 148 presidential election of 2016, 235, 236, 333, 354 safety net in, 133–34, 157–58, 320–21, 324 schools in, 119–25, 127, 190–91, 233–34, 317 South of, 72, 74 Supreme Court, 103, 384 voting rights in, 92–93, 96 Western settlers in, 72, 99–100 universal basic income (UBI), 322–23 universities, see colleges and universities University of Chicago, xxiii, xxvi, 87, 124–25, 164, 290–91 University of Rochester, 223 usury: Catholic Church and, 34–42, 44–46, 49 favorable public attitudes toward, 44 intellectual support for ban on, 39–40 prohibition on, 31–32 rationale for proscribing, 32–34 values: community, and tolerance for markets, 390–92 conflict over, 234–36 Virginia, 58 Voigtländer, Nico, 112 Volcker, Paul, 163 Voth, Hans-Joachim, 112 voting and suffrage, xxvii, 26, 79, 105 extension of franchise, 91–98 wages, see income and wages Wallis, John, 97 Washington Post, 108 wealth, 111, 395–96 Wealth of Nations, The (Smith), 80 weavers, 18–19, 116, 188 Weber, Max, 47, 38 Weingast, Barry, 70, 97–98 welfare, 129, 137, 148, 158, 230 Wellman, Andrew, 331 Whigs, 67, 95 William of Orange, 67 Wilson, William Junius, 230, 231 Wilson, Woodrow, 125 Wolf, Martin, 355 workers, 75, 78, 79, 87, 89, 97, 127–28 education and capabilities of, 313–18 insurance plans for, 132 rights of, 360–61 strikes by, 102 unions for, 165, 198, 206, 360, 361 see also income and wages; jobs working at a distance, 219, 220 World Bank, 151, 253–54 World Trade Organization (WTO), 353, 356, 362 World Values Survey, 297 World War I, 103, 112, 124 World War II, xxvii, 138, 139, 140, 143, 145, 146, 155–57, 210, 243, 367 Marshall Plan and, 149–51, 365 postwar period, 148–54 Wulf, Julie, 193 Xi Jinping, 261, 278 Xiushui Market, 255 Yeats, W.

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Rodriguez, “Delay of Gratification in Children,” Science 244, no. 4907 (1989): 933–38; Walter Mischel, Yuichi Shoda, and Philip K. Peake, “The Nature of Adolescent Competencies Predicted by Preschool Delay of Gratification,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 54, no. 4 (1988): 687–96; Jacoba Urist, “What the Marshmallow Test Really Teaches About Self-Control,” The Atlantic, September 24, 2014, https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2014/09/what-the-marshmallow-test-really-teaches-about-self-control/380673/. 15. Celeste Kidd, Holly Palmeri, and Richard N. Aslin, “Rational Snacking: Young Children’s Decision-making on the Marshmallow Task is Moderated by Beliefs About Environmental Reliability,” Cognition 126, no. 1 (2013): 109–14. 16.

Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics
by Richard H. Thaler
Published 10 May 2015

Working Paper 20659, National Bureau of Economic Research. Zamir, Eyal, and Doron Teichman. 2014. The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Economics and the Law. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press. Zielinski, Sarah. 2014. “A Parrot Passes the Marshmallow Test.” Slate, September 9. Available at: http://www.slate.com/blogs/wild_things/2014/09/09/marshmallow_test_of_self_control_an_african_grey_parrot_performs_as_well.html. LIST OF FIGURES Unless otherwise noted, all figures created by Kevin Quealy Fig. 1. Railroad Track Puzzle Fig. 2. Utility of Wealth Fig. 3. The Value Function Fig. 4. Saul Steinberg, “View of the World from 9th Avenue” (New Yorker, March 29, 1976).

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“The Modigliani–Miller Propositions after Thirty Years.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 2, no. 4: 99–120. Mischel, Walter. 1968. Personality and Assessment. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley. ———. 1969. “Continuity and Change in Personality.” American Psychologist 24, no. 11: 1012. ———. 2014. The Marshmallow Test: Mastering Self-Control. New York: Little, Brown. ———, Ozlem Ayduk, Marc G. Berman, B. J. Casey, Ian H. Gotlib, John Jonides, Ethan Kross, Theresa Teslovich, Nicole L Wilson, Vivian Zayas, et al. 2010. “‘Willpower’ over the Life Span: Decomposing Self-Regulation.” Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience 6, no. 2: 252–6.

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This knowledge is proving important in dealing with many of society’s biggest problems, as we will see later on. ________________ * In truth, Odysseus was not clever enough to think up this plan himself. He got some good advice from Circe, a goddess who specialized in herbs and drugs. Go figure. † Some researchers have tried a version of the marshmallow/Oreo experiment on animals. Most go for the immediate reward, but one particularly clever African gray parrot named Griffen was shown to display better self-control than most preschoolers (Zielinski, 2014). ‡ The two-system model articulated by Kahneman in Thinking, Fast and Slow was not the way he and Tversky originally thought about their research.

Hello, Habits
by Fumio Sasaki
Published 6 Nov 2020

They’re the ones with the “strong willpower” who can maintain good habits and make efforts to achieve their objectives. What’s the difference between people who give in to the rewards in front of them and those who can wait for rewards in the future? An answer lies in the famous “marshmallow test” conducted by psychologist Walter Mischel concerning this issue. I would like you to pay attention to this marshmallow test, as it will be one of the central themes in this book. This test was conducted on children aged four to five at Stanford University’s Bing Nursery School during the 1960s. First, children chose what they wanted to eat the most from among snacks like marshmallows, cookies, and pretzels.

…

In the test, the children were able to wait for an average of six minutes, and two-thirds of them were unable to wait and ended up eating the marshmallow in front of them. The remaining third were able to wait, and obtained two marshmallows. Can we predict the future with the marshmallow test? This experiment starts to get interesting from here. A surprising result of long-term follow-up studies on the children who took the marshmallow test was that the longer they were able to wait when they took the test as preschoolers, the better they did on their SATs. Children who had been able to wait for fifteen minutes scored better than those who failed in thirty seconds by 210 points.

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Rather than saying that I wrote this book, it’s like I went ahead and digested in my own way what you all said, edited it, and rearranged it. I earnestly admire your efforts. Now, as I did in my last work, I want to thank my parents. This is what Walter Mischel of the marshmallow test, an integral theme in this book, has said about raising children: it wasn’t children controlled excessively by their parents, but children whose choices and independence had been respected that obtained the skills necessary to be the most successful in the marshmallow test. Though I used to think that I was a person who had weak willpower, I think the fact that I was indeed raised by my parents in that way has somehow tied in to the habits that I’ve now acquired.

The Narcissist Next Door
by Jeffrey Kluger
Published 25 Aug 2014

When Mischel and his colleagues followed up with the same children fourteen years later, around the time of their high school graduation, he found that the ones who did well on the marshmallow experiment scored higher on behavioral tests that measured assertiveness, social effectiveness and the ability to cope with frustration. They also scored, on average, 210 points higher on their SATs than the kids who’d jumped at the single marshmallow so many years earlier. Contemporary studies have expanded on Mischel’s work, using a toy instead of a marshmallow, and testing kids at a variety of ages, though mercifully making them endure just three minutes of waiting instead of fifteen.

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It’s not just automatic maturation that strengthens the restraint muscles. Parental teaching and social learning play a role, too. In a 2012 study, a team led by cognitive scientist Celeste Kidd of the University of Rochester reran the marshmallow test but divided the kids into two groups: those who had been conditioned to believe that the researchers were honest and that their word could be trusted, and those who were given reason to doubt that. The effectiveness of the marshmallow test, after all, rests on the children being able to trust that if they resist eating the solitary treat, the experimenter will come back and make good on the bargain they struck.

…

And as for asking babies to police themselves—to keep their hands off the plate of snacks or their playmate’s belongings? Not a chance. The heart wants what it wants. It was in the 1960s that Stanford University psychologist Walter Mischel first conducted his landmark study in impulse control that became simply and universally known as “the marshmallow test.” Working with a sample group of four-year-olds, he offered each of the kids a deal: They could have one marshmallow right away or, if they waited fifteen minutes while he stepped out to run an errand, they could have two upon his return. When he did leave the room, he left the single marshmallow on a plate in easy reach of the child.

Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions
by Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths
Published 4 Apr 2016

A team of researchers at the University of Rochester recently explored how prior experiences might affect behavior in the marshmallow test. Before marshmallows were even mentioned, the kids in the experiment embarked on an art project. The experimenter gave them some mediocre supplies, and promised to be back with better options soon. But, unbeknownst to them, the children were divided into two groups. In one group, the experimenter was reliable, and came back with the better art supplies as promised. In the other, she was unreliable, coming back with nothing but apologies. The art project completed, the children went on to the standard marshmallow test. And here, the children who had learned that the experimenter was unreliable were more likely to eat the marshmallow before she came back, losing the opportunity to earn a second treat.

…

What we project about the future reveals a lot—about the world we live in, and about our own past. What Our Predictions Tell Us About Ourselves When Walter Mischel ran his famous “marshmallow test” in the early 1970s, he was trying to understand how the ability to delay gratification develops with age. At a nursery school on the Stanford campus, a series of three-, four-, and five-year-olds had their willpower tested. Each child would be shown a delicious treat, such as a marshmallow, and told that the adult running the experiment was about to leave the room for a while. If they wanted to, they could eat the treat right away. But if they waited until the experimenter came back, they would get two treats.

…

The Multiplicative Rule then suggests that a protracted wait is just a small fraction of what’s to come. Decades after the original marshmallow experiments, Walter Mischel and his colleagues went back and looked at how the participants were faring in life. Astonishingly, they found that children who had waited for two treats grew into young adults who were more successful than the others, even measured by quantitative metrics like their SAT scores. If the marshmallow test is about willpower, this is a powerful testament to the impact that learning self-control can have on one’s life. But if the test is less about will than about expectations, then this tells a different, perhaps more poignant story.

Heroic Failure: Brexit and the Politics of Pain
by Fintan O'Toole
Published 22 Jan 2018

But though it may not be in the great tradition of Edmund Burke, it is nonetheless worthy of attention for it contains many of the seeds of Brexit. First, there is the naughty-boy roguish charm. It is a (slightly) grown-up version of a Just William story, where instead of stealing a cake at the vicar’s tea party, Boris is wolfing his wife’s toast. It is disarmingly childish. It functions as an English version of the famous Stanford marshmallow test in which children’s capacity for delayed gratification was assessed by offering them a choice between one treat now or two treats a little later. Boris fails the toast test – even his wife’s suffering in childbirth is not enough to make him prioritize her needs over his own. Yet even while confessing his sin, he is also evoking the thrills of rebelling against constraint.

The Politics of Pain
by Fintan O'Toole
Published 2 Oct 2019

But though it may not be in the great tradition of Edmund Burke, it is nonetheless worthy of attention for it contains many of the seeds of Brexit. First, there is the naughty-boy roguish charm. It is a (slightly) grown-up version of a Just William story, where instead of stealing a cake at the vicar’s tea party, Boris is wolfing his wife’s toast. It is disarmingly childish. It functions as an English version of the famous Stanford marshmallow test in which children’s capacity for delayed gratification was assessed by offering them a choice between one treat now or two treats a little later. Boris fails the toast test – even his wife’s suffering in childbirth is not enough to make him prioritize her needs over his own. Yet even while confessing his sin, he is also evoking the thrills of rebelling against constraint.

The Social Animal: The Hidden Sources of Love, Character, and Achievement
by David Brooks
Published 8 Mar 2011

The kids who could wait a full fifteen minutes had, thirteen years later, SAT scores that were 210 points higher than the kids who could wait only thirty seconds. (The marshmallow test turned out to be a better predictor of SAT scores than the IQ tests given to four-year-olds.) Twenty years later, they had much higher college-completion rates, and thirty years later, they had much higher incomes. The kids who could not wait at all had much higher incarceration rates. They were much more likely to suffer from drug- and alcohol-addiction problems. The test presented kids with a conflict between short-term impulse and long-term reward. The marshmallow test measured whether kids had learned strategies to control their impulses.

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Norton & Co., Inc., 2008), 133. 5 dandelion children and orchid children David Dobbs, “The Science of Success,” The Atlantic, December 2009, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/12/the-science-of-success/7761/. 6 A study of engineers Blair Justice, “The Will to Stay Well,” New York Times, April 17, 1988, http://www.nytimes.com/1988/04/17/magazine/the-will-to-stay-well.html. 7 Angela Duckworth and Martin Seligman Angela L. Duckworth and Martin E. P. Seligman, “Self-Discipline Outdoes IQ in Predicting Academic Performance of Adolescents,” Psychological Science 16, no. 12 (2005): 939–44, http://www.citeulike.org/user/kericson/article/408060. 8 The marshmallow test turned Jonah Lehrer, How We Decide (New York: Houghton Mifflin Co., 2009), 112. 9 The kids who possessed Jonah Lehrer, “Don’t! The Secret of Self-Control,” The New Yorker, May 18, 2009, http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/05/18/090518fa_fact_lehrer?currentPage=all. 10 These children could wait Walter Mischel and Ozlem Ayduk, “Willpower in a Cognitive-Affective Processing System: The Dynamics of Delay of Gratification,” in Handbook of Self-Regulation: Research, Theory, and Applications, eds.

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The Famous Marshmallow Around 1970 Walter Mischel, then at Stanford and now at Columbia, launched one of the most famous and delightful experiments in modern psychology. He sat a series of four-year-olds in a room and put a marshmallow on the table. He told them they could eat the marshmallow right away, but that he was going to go away and if they waited until he returned he would give them two marshmallows. In the videos of the experiment you can see Mischel leave the room, and then the children squirming, kicking, hiding their eyes, and banging their heads on the table, trying not to eat the marshmallow on the table in front of them. One day, Mischel used an Oreo instead of a marshmallow. A kid picked up the cookie, slyly ate the creamy filling and carefully put it back in its place.

A More Beautiful Question: The Power of Inquiry to Spark Breakthrough Ideas
by Warren Berger
Published 4 Mar 2014

One way to think about it is that in today’s increasingly dynamic environment, we’re all being challenged (or will soon be) to take some version of the marshmallow test: we’ll be expected to quickly adapt to using new and unfamiliar tools, as we try to construct new businesses, new markets, new careers, new life plans—using ever-changing technology, without clear instructions, and with the clock ticking. All of which requires people to be not only better questioners, but better experimenters. When you take a look at how adults in innovative environments work, they tend to operate much like the kids in the marshmallow test. At IDEO, the firm’s designers quickly move from coming up with ideas to building and testing those ideas.

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How do we gear up production? How do we handle the orders? How do we launch a full-fledged business? How might we roll it instead of lugging it? What if I put wheels on these suitcases? (the question behind the Rollaboard) How do you build a tower that doesn’t collapse (even after you put the marshmallow on top)? What does an offbeat test involving marshmallows and kindergartners mean to those of us operating in the real world? How do you make a hard-boiled egg’s shell disappear? What if you could boil an egg in a hard-boiled egg shape, but with the shell off? How can you learn to love a broken foot? How do I learn to learn from failure?

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The kids used their time much more efficiently by constructing right away. They tried one way of building, and if it didn’t work, they quickly tried another. They got in a lot more tries. They learned from their mistakes as they went along, instead of attempting to figure out everything in advance. The point of the marshmallow experiment was not to humble MBA students (if anything, that was a side benefit), but rather to better understand how to make progress when tasked with a difficult challenge in uncertain conditions. What we learn from those kids is that there’s no substitute for quickly trying things out to see what works.

The Willpower Instinct: How Self-Control Works, Why It Matters, and What You Can Doto Get More of It
by Kelly McGonigal
Published 1 Dec 2011

Appetite 38 (2002): 237–38. Page 161—“Ten-minute delay”: McClure, S. M., K. M. Ericson, D. I. Laibson, G. Loewenstein, and J. D. Cohen. “Time Discounting for Primary Rewards.” Journal of Neuroscience 27 (2007): 5796–804. Page 163—“The Marshmallow Test”: Mischel, W., Y. Shoda, and M. I. Rodriguez. “Delay of Gratification in Children.” Science 244 (1989): 933–38. Page 164—Follow-up to the marshmallow test: Mischel, W., Y. Shoda, and P. K. Peake. “The Nature of Adolescent Competencies Predicted by Preschool Delay of Gratification.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 54 (1988): 687–96. See also Eigsti, I. M., V.

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They cannot resist the promise of immediate gratification, like a going-out-of-business sale that slashes prices up to 90 percent just to get some quick cash. How big your discount rate is turns out to be a major determinant of your long-term health and success. The first study to look at the long-term consequences of a person’s discount rate was a classic psychology experiment best known as “The Marshmallow Test.” In the late 1960s, Stanford psychologist Walter Mischel gave a bunch of four-year-olds the choice between one treat now or two treats in fifteen minutes. After explaining the choice, the experimenter left the child alone in a room with both treats and a bell. If the child could wait until the experimenter returned, he could have both treats.

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One girl covers her face with her hair so she can’t see the treats; one boy keeps an eye on the treats but moves the bell far away so he can’t reach it; another boy decides to compromise by licking the treats without actually eating them, portending an excellent future in politics. Although the study taught the researchers a lot about how four-year-olds delay gratification, it also provided a shockingly good way to predict a child’s future. How long a four-year-old waited in the marshmallow test predicted that child’s academic and social success ten years later. The kids who waited the longest were more popular, had higher GPAs, and were better able to handle stress. They also had higher SAT scores and performed better on a neuropsychological test of prefrontal cortex function. Being able to wait fifteen minutes for two marshmallows was the perfect measure of something far more important: How well could a child handle temporary discomfort to accomplish a long-term goal?

Why I Left Goldman Sachs: A Wall Street Story
by Greg Smith
Published 21 Oct 2012

I took the president of my largest client. At Pine Street, thought leaders such as Bill George, the former CEO of Medtronic turned Harvard Business School professor, the author of Authentic Leadership, and a Goldman Sachs Board member, talked about how leaders are meant to behave. A scientist talked to us about the Stanford marshmallow experiment—the one where children were left alone in a room with a marshmallow. Some gobbled up the marshmallow; others waited and then ate it; still others waited until the tester returned to the room. The subjects were tracked over the next forty years, and the researchers found that the ones who had delayed gratification the longest ended up growing into leaders; the little piggies, not so much.

Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World
by David Epstein
Published 1 Mar 2019

Psychologist Walter Mischel and his research team followed up with the children years later, and found that the longer a child had been able to wait, the more likely she was to be successful socially, academically, and financially, and the less likely she was to abuse drugs. The marshmallow test was already a celebrity as scientific experiments go, but it became the Beyoncé of studies when media outlets and parents eager to foretell their child’s destiny started posting DIY marshmallow tests online. The videos are by turns adorable and intriguing. Nearly all kids wait at least a little. Some stare at the marshmallow, touch it, sniff it, delicately tap their tongue to it and pull back as if it were hot.

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One little boy who spent his time looking in every direction except at the marshmallow is so ravenous when the experimenter returns with his second treat that he mashes them both into his mouth immediately. The crystal ball allure of the marshmallow test is undeniable, and also misconstrued. Mischel’s collaborator Yuichi Shoda has repeatedly made a point of saying that plenty of preschoolers who ate the marshmallow turned out just fine.* Shoda maintained that the most exciting aspect of the studies was demonstrating how easily children could learn to change a specific behavior with simple mental strategies, like thinking about the marshmallow as a cloud rather than food. Shoda’s post-marshmallow-test work has been one part of a bridge in psychology between extreme arguments in the debate about the roles of nature and nurture in personality.

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Shoda et al., eds., Persons in Context: Building a Science of the Individual (New York: Guilford Press, 2007 [Kindle ebook]). “If you are conscientious”: T. Rose, The End of Average: How We Succeed in a World That Values Sameness (New York: HarperOne, 2016 [Kindle ebook]). a replication of the marshmallow test: T. W. Watts et al., “Revisiting the Marshmallow Test,” Psychological Science 29, no. 7 (2018): 1159–77. Ibarra began; “We discover the possibilities”: H. Ibarra, Working Identity (Boston: Harvard Business Review Press, 2003). “painless path to a new career”: P. Capell, “Taking the Painless Path to a New Career,” Wall Street Journal Europe, January 2, 2002.

Designing the Mind: The Principles of Psychitecture
by Designing The Mind and Ryan A Bush
Published 10 Jan 2021

The second opportunity for changing behaviors is through our attention and thoughts. Just as we established in the emotional section, our external experiences are generally filtered through our thoughts before they trigger behaviors. This means our thoughts and focus play a powerful role in the actions we take. Most people are familiar with the marshmallow test - Stanford psychologist Walter Mischel’s classic experiment which linked self-control and delayed gratification to nearly every important metric of the good life. It asked children to resist the urge to eat a marshmallow for as long as they could. They did not have the option of changing their environment because they were asked to sit right in front of the marshmallow.

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,” Counseling & Wellness: A Professional Counseling Journal 5 (February 2016), https://openknowledge.nau.edu/2338/. Matthew T. Gailliot and Roy F. Baumeister, “The Physiology of Willpower: Linking Blood Glucose to Self-Control,” Personality and Social Psychology Review 11, no. 4 (November 1, 2007): 303–27, https://doi.org/10.1177/1088868307303030. Mischel Walter, The Marshmallow Test: Understanding Self-Control and How To Master It. Chapter 2: How They Do It, n.d. “Nietzsche and Psychology: How to Become Who You Are,” Academy of Ideas (blog), February 21, 2017, https://academyofideas.com/2017/02/nietzsche-psychology-become-who-you-are/. David L. Watson and Roland G. Tharp, Self-Directed Behavior: Self-Modification for Personal Adjustment.

Britannia Unchained: Global Lessons for Growth and Prosperity
by Kwasi Kwarteng , Priti Patel , Dominic Raab , Chris Skidmore and Elizabeth Truss
Published 12 Sep 2012

The marginal extra income from work is now so finely balanced with the cost of childcare that it is deterring many on lower and middling incomes from returning to work. Research for the insurance giant Aviva shows that, after tax, a woman in a relationship on the average part-time salary of £8,557 with children aged one and seven would lose £98 a month by going back to work. Delayed Gratification In 1972, psychologist Walter Mischel of Stanford University conducted a ‘marshmallow test’ with four- to six-year-olds at a nursery, and the results were followed up with further studies between 1988 and 2011. 72 Britannia Unchained The children were offered one marshmallow straight away, or two if they waited a while. Just one third could avoid the temptation, and waited long enough to get the second marshmallow.

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(1967) 9 favelas (Brazilian shantytowns) 101–4 drug lords 102–3 entrepreneurial spirit 103–4 feed-in tariffs 85 Ferguson, Niall 21, 66, 91 First Care Products 79 fiscal rules 25, 27, 29, 30, 31, 33 see also Golden Rule Flaherty, Jim 35 Flikr 95 Frankel, Jeffrey 29 fuel prices 62 Furedi, Frank 87 139 geek culture 48–51 General Motors 92 Germany birth rate 107 economic growth 8 educational reform 41 high-tech industry 52 and PISA results 40–1, 57 welfare reform 4 Giffords, Gabrielle 78, 79–80 Gladwell, Malcolm 86 Global Competitiveness Report 2011/12 88 global financial crisis (2007–08) 2–3, 4, 9–10, 31–2 responses to 13–14 globalisation 4, 54 Golden Rule 28, 29 Google 60, 81, 93 Gou, Terry 105 Gove, Michael 38 Greece 3 Griffin, John 62 Haddock, Richard 64 Harford, Tim 92 Hari, Johann 19 Harper, Stephen 35, 36 Harvard University Harvard Institute of Economic Research 68, 69 and New Keynesianism 25, 26 Hasan, Medhi 19 Hawke, Bob 32 Heath, Edward 8, 9, 114 Henderson, Sir Nicholas 7, 8 Heritage Foundation 36 Hernández, Daniel, Jr 78 Hewlett Packard 81, 93 Higher Education Policy Institute 57 Hinduja brothers 72–3 Hodge, Margaret 43 Hoffman, Reid 97 Hong Kong 5, 36, 66, 113 Howard, John 33 Human Rights Act 74 140 Britannia Unchained Hutton, Will 26 hyperinflation 21, 83, 104, 105 IBM 81 ICQ (instant messaging programme) 81 Imperial College 58 India 4–5, 100, 113, 115 attitudes to science and technology 44, 46, 49–51 Institutes of Technology 51, 53 work ethic 57, 72–3 innovation 5, 93–4, 97, 98–9, 105, 114 and informal economy 88–9 and necessity 86, 91 patent applications 81, 82, 95–7 and risk 91–2 see also entrepreneurship; Israeli entrepreneurial culture; venture capital instant messaging 81 Intel 68, 81 intellectual capital 52, 53, 112 intellectual property law 55, 89 International Indicators of Educational Systems (INES) project (OECD) 39 International Monetary Fund (IMF) 34, 114 internet 55, 81, 88, 99, 108–9 Intuit 92 Iraq War (2003) 10 Isagba, Beau 1 Isenberg, Daniel 83, 94, 95–6 ‘Israeli bandage’ 78–80 Israeli entrepreneurial culture 78–86 government support for 83–6 and Jewish immigrants from Soviet Union 86 technology sector 80–1, 86 and venture capital 5, 80, 84–5, 94 Italy 3, 52 Ive, Jonathan 91 Jackson, Tim 10 Jain, Nitin 50 Japan aging population 106–7 education 40, 43, 55 work ethic 106 Jebel Ali Free Zone (Dubai) 88 Jefferson, Thomas 90 Jobs, Steve 89 Jobseeker’s Allowance 74 John-Baptiste, Ashley 45–6 Johnson, Samuel 98 Jones, Peter 97 Katz, Lawrence 25 Katzir , Ephraim 83 Keating, Paul 32 Keegan, William 26, 28 Kennedy, John F. 23–4 Keynes, John Maynard 20 Keynesian economics 14–15, 20, 24, 28 Kinnock, Neil 28 Kissinger, Henry 9 Krugman, Paul 19 Kumar, Manmohan S. 22 Laski, Harold 14 Last.fm 55, 98 Le Dang Doanh 89 Leavis, F.R. 46 Lehman Brothers 92 leverage 35 Li, David 47–8 Liberal Party (Canada) 16–18, 35 The Limits to Growth 9 LinkedIn 95, 97, 98 London tube-drivers 63 Lopes, Antonio Francisco Bonfim (‘Nem’) 103 Loughner, Jared Lee 78 Lula da Silva, Luiz Inácio 100–1 M-Systems Ltd 81 Macaulay, Thomas 19, 21 Macmillan, Harold 114 Major, John 28 Malaysia, women and tech careers 50 Index Mandelson, Peter 94, 115 Manpower Talent Shortage Survey 73 Margin Call (film) 47 Marland, Jonathan, Baron 85 Marshall, Alfred 52 marshmallow test 71–2 Martin, Paul 16–18, 35, 36 Massé, Marcel 18 Mayer, Marissa 48 meritocracy, in emerging economies 49 Merkel, Angela 46 Mexico debt default 22 education 44, 55 Peso Crisis (1994) 16 women and tech careers 50 Michau, Jean-Baptiste 70 Michel, Harald 107 Microsoft 68, 81 miners’ strike (1983–84) 114–15 Mirabilis 81 Mischel, Walter 71 Mittal, Lakshmi 73 mobile phones, dual-sim-card 89 Moo.com 55 Moody’s 47 Mossbourne Academy (Hackney) 59 Motorola 81 Mulroney, Brian 15–16, 36 NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) 15 NASDAQ 80, 94 A Nation at Risk, report on US education system 39, 40 National Commission on Excellence in Education 38–9 National Employment Savings Trust Scheme (UK) 87 National Health Service (NHS) 28, 29, 31 Netanyahu, Binyamin 86 Neuwirth, Robert 89 New Keynesianism 25, 26 New Labour 24, 25 and growing deficit 29–33 141 inaccuracy of budget forecasts 29 investment in public services 12, 28–9 macroeconomic framework 27–30 tax increases 28–9 North Korea 36 North Sea oil 9, 37 Obama, Barack 100 ‘Occupy London’ protests 10 O’Donnell, Gus 27, 30 OECD, comparing school systems 31, 38–41 Ofsted 59, 71, 73 Old Age Pensions Act (1908) 69 Oliveira, Silvinha 103 Olympic Games in Brazil 101–2, 103 London tube drivers pay 63 Paypal 93, 95 Pedro II, Emperor of Brazil 104 pensions 3, 32, 63, 69–70, 110 pension age 69 Peston, Robert 28 PISA tests see Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) ‘The Poles are Coming’ 63–4 poll tax riots (1990) 69, 115 The Population Bomb, (1968) 9 Postlethwaite, T.

The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds
by Michael Lewis
Published 6 Dec 2016

Tracking the kids through life, Mischel later found that the better a five-year-old resisted the temptation, the higher his future SAT scores and his sense of self-worth, and the lower his body fat and the likelihood he’d suffer from some addiction. Gripped by a new enthusiasm, Danny designed a bunch of marshmallow test–like experiments. He even coined a phrase for what he was doing: the psychology of single questions. He arranged for Israeli kids on camping trips—this was just one example—to be offered a choice between sleeping in a single tent, a two-person tent, or an eight-person tent. Perhaps their answers, Danny thought, would say something about their tendency to affiliate with a group.

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When he returned to Hebrew University as a young assistant professor in 1961, after four years away, he was freshly inspired by personality studies being done by the psychologist Walter Mischel. In the early 1960s Mischel created these wonderfully simple tests on children that wound up revealing a lot about them. In what became known as the “marshmallow experiment,” Mischel put three-, four-, and five-year-old kids in a room alone with their favorite treat—a pretzel stick, a marshmallow—and told them that if they could last a few minutes without eating the treat they’d receive a second treat. A small child’s ability to wait turned out to be correlated with his IQ and his family circumstances and some other things as well.

The Rise of Superman: Decoding the Science of Ultimate Human Performance
by Steven Kotler
Published 4 Mar 2014

Zimbardo went on to become one of the most well-regarded psychologists of the twentieth century, author of more than fifty books, and past president of the American Psychological Association. He taught at both Yale and Stanford and was at the latter institution when Walter Mischel performed his famed marshmallow experiment. The results caught Zimbardo’s attention, but not because he was interested in delayed gratification. Rather, because they seemed to confirm his childhood suspicions about time. Zimbardo noticed two competing “time perspectives” at work in Mischel’s experiment. A time perspective is the technical name for the “permanent filter” Zimbardo described.

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For similar reasons, the flow path presents an alternative to the standard Futures’ mothers-marshmallows-musicians approach to mastery. For starters, mothers aren’t required on the flow path. No one had to encourage McConkey to ski. Skiing produces flow and flow is autotelic. It was all the motivation he required. The marshmallow experiment, meanwhile, highlights the power of willpower. If kids can’t develop the inner strength to resist temptation, they can’t master themselves, let alone anything else. This makes life tricky for action and adventure athletes who, by definition, are marshmallow-eating, sensation-seeking hedonists (“thrill and adventure seeking” is one of the four categories used by psychologists to delineate sensation seekers).

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See Squaw Valley Landy, John, 174 Lao Tzu, 164 lateralization, 123–26 learning from deathly mistakes, 166–67 flow, in school, 178, 216 growth mindset and, 119, 124–26 Montessori, 178, 221 prediction and “chunking” for, 64–65 shortcuts to, 86–87 speed and longevity, 192–93 Lesser, Rob, 95–96 lifestyle, 77–78, 129 Lillard, Angeline, 178 Limb, Charles, 50, 179 listening, 133 Lopez, Gerry, 37 love, 69 Luks, Allan, 98 macroflow, 31 magnetic resonance imaging. See MRI Malloy, Chris, 161 mammalian diving reflex, 110–11 marijuana, 67, 74 marshmallow experiment, 81–82, 83, 86 Maslow, Abraham, 18–19 mastery by compliance, 81–82, 83–84, 86 by flow, 85–87, 164 parenting and, 79–80 by practice, 80–81, 84, 86–87 Maverick’s, xviii–xxi McConkey, Jim, 88 McConkey, Shane BASE jumping by, 89–90, 140–43, 148–49 death of, 149, 156–57 skiing by, xi–xii, 75–78, 87–90, 148–49 McDougall, Bob, 95–96 medical surgeons, 116, 131 meditation, 40, 56, 113 mental clarity, 114–15 growth state, 118–22, 123–26 pain threshold, 13–16 risk taking, 102–3 visualization, 175–77 Metzger, Mike, xvii microflow, 31 military, 87, 163 Millennium Wave, 26–27, 29–30 Miller, Chris, 41 Mischel, Walter, 81 Montessori school, 178, 221 Moore’s Law, 182 morality, 164 Mosley, Jonny, 89 motivation by death, 166–67 factors, 158 intrinsic, 19–20, 30, 85–86 motocross, xvii mountaineering.

Rationality: What It Is, Why It Seems Scarce, Why It Matters
by Steven Pinker
Published 14 Oct 2021

And these in turn often feel like conflicts between different selves, a present self and a future self.14 The psychologist Walter Mischel captured the conflict in an agonizing choice he gave four-year-olds in a famous 1972 experiment: one marshmallow now or two marshmallows in fifteen minutes.15 Life is a never-ending gantlet of marshmallow tests, dilemmas that force us to choose between a sooner small reward and a later large reward. Watch a movie now or pass a course later; buy a bauble now or pay the rent later; enjoy five minutes of fellatio now or an unblemished record in the history books later. The marshmallow dilemma goes by several names, including self-control, delay of gratification, time preference, and discounting the future.16 It figures into any analysis of rationality because it helps explain the misconception that too much rationality makes for a cramped and dreary life.

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One is that we can discount a future reward too steeply—put too low a price on it given how likely we are to live to see it and how much enjoyment it will bring. The impatience can be quantified. Shane Frederick, inventor of the Cognitive Reflection Test from the previous chapter, presented his respondents with hypothetical marshmallow tests using adult rewards, and found that a majority (especially those who fell for the seductive wrong answers on the brainteasers) preferred $3,400 then and there to $3,800 a month later, the equivalent of forgoing an investment with a 280 percent annual return.17 In real life, about half of Americans nearing retirement age have saved nothing for retirement: they’ve planned their lives as if they would be dead by then (as most of our ancestors in fact were).18 As Homer Simpson said to Marge when she warned him that he would regret his conduct, “That’s a problem for future Homer.

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But the elbow shape of a hyperbola suggests that it may really be a composite of two curves, one plotting the irresistible pull of a treat that you can’t get out of your head (the bakery smell, the come-hither look, the glitter in the showroom), the other plotting a cooler assessment of costs and benefits in a hypothetical future. Studies that tempt volunteers in a scanner with adult versions of marshmallow tests confirm that different brain patterns are activated by thoughts of imminent and distant goodies.23 Though hyperbolic discounting is not rational in the way that calibrated exponential discounting can be (since it does not capture the ever-compounding uncertainty of the future), it does provide an opening for the rational self to outsmart the impetuous self.

Calling Bullshit: The Art of Scepticism in a Data-Driven World
by Jevin D. West and Carl T. Bergstrom
Published 3 Aug 2020

They did not demonstrate causation: The ability to delay gratification does not necessarily cause later success and well-being.*6 But as these results filtered through the popular press, the line between correlation and causation became blurred. The results of the marshmallow test and other related studies were reported as evidence that ability to delay gratification causes success later in life. These assumptions about causation are often used as grounds to make a prescription: Improve your future by learning to delay gratification. In response to the marshmallow test, pop-psych and pop-business outlets promote training methods. Lifehacker exhorted us to “Build the Skill of Delayed Gratification.” “If you can manage to turn delaying gratification into a regular habit,” read the copy beneath a stock photo of marshmallows in Fast Company, “you may be able to take your own performance from just mediocre to top-notch.”

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When you see scatter plots and related forms of data visualization, ask yourself (and maybe the person who created the graph): Is the structure of the graph suggesting a causal relationship that isn’t there? DELAYED GRATIFICATION AND COMMON CAUSE One of the hallmark discoveries of social psychology is the role that delayed gratification plays in a successful life. At the heart of delayed gratification theory is an experiment known as the marshmallow test. A four-year-old is presented with alternative rewards: one marshmallow or two marshmallows. He is told that he can have a single marshmallow anytime—but if he can wait for a while, he can have two marshmallows. The experimenter then leaves the room and measures the amount of time until the child says screw it, and takes the single marshmallow.

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“Birth Rates Dropped Most in Counties Where Home Values Grew Most.” Zillow. June 6, 2018. https://www.zillow.com/​research/​birth-rates-home-values-20165/. Vigen, Tyler. “Spurious Correlations.” 2015. http://www.tylervigen.com/​spurious-correlations. Watts, T. W., G. J. Duncan, and H. Quan. “Revisiting the Marshmallow Test: A Conceptual Replication Investigating Links between Early Delay of Gratification and Later Outcomes.” Psychological Science 29 (2018): 1159–77. Zoldan, Ari. “40-Year-Old Stanford Study Reveals the 1 Quality Your Children Need to Succeed in Life.” Inc. February 1, 2018. CHAPTER 5: NUMBERS AND NONSENSE Binder, John. “2,139 DACA Recipients Convicted or Accused of Crimes against Americans.”

Die With Zero: Getting All You Can From Your Money and Your Life
by Bill Perkins
Published 27 Jul 2020

If this concept of a personal interest rate works for you, though, then keeping it in mind when you are considering buying an experience can help you decide whether it’s worth it to spend the money now or to save it for another time. Would You Rather? If the personal interest rate doesn’t do it for you, you can think in terms of simple multiples of an experience. This is how the famous marshmallow test, created for preschoolers by psychologist Walter Mischel at Stanford in the 1960s, is set up: Would you rather have one marshmallow now, or two marshmallows 15 minutes from now? Many three-year-olds might say they’d rather have two marshmallows in 15 minutes, but once that tempting marshmallow is in front of them, many can’t wait.

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Buffett, Warren, 6, 34, 101 Bureau of Labor Statistics, 56 by-product argument, 47–49 C cancer treatments, cost of 57–58 careers choices and timing, 181, 183–84, 190 love my job, 47–49, 60 moving for opportunities, 185–87 slaves to our jobs, 13 starting out, 7–9 unhappiness in, 183–84 “Cat’s in the Cradle,” 90–91 Centaurus, 41 charity age and timing of, 50, 98–100 charitable foundations, 40 charitable timing, 95–100, 192 Compassion International, 101 educational causes, 98–99 Morehouse College student loans, 98 Save the Children, 101 children time with, 93–95, 120 See also inheritance, children’s; kids chiropractor story, 122–23 Cohen, Jeff, 181–82 compounding as reason to give money to children earlier, 87 of memory dividend, 30–32 of poor health, 123–25 Consumer Expenditure Survey, 56 consumption smoothing, 9–10 cookies, as example of deliberate choices, 12 costs of acquiring more money, 162–63 of survival, 157 Cuban, Mark, 177–78, 181 curve of ability to enjoy experiences, 116, 116–17 D dancer, as example of loving your job, 47 death and deterioration experiences before, 34 money at end of life, 109–10 prospect of, 2–3 spending during retirement, 52 survival instinct, 72–74 See also Life-Cycle Hypothesis (LCH); mortality risk death date, and effect on behavior, 73, 109–10 debt, for the sake of singular experiences, 105 decumulation, 53, 71, 171–74, 207m50 Spending Over Lifetime, 172 delayed gratification Ant and the Grasshopper, 16, 24 balance of, 24, 199 golden years and, 118 logic of, 3 marshmallow test, 130 senselessness of overdoing, 56, 130–32, 138, 153 Depression (era), and fear of poverty, 85 deterioration of health, 111–15 DieWithZeroBook.com, 202 “dissaving,” 47. See also decumulation. Dominguez, Joe, 10 door, as example of the value of memory, 28 Downton Abbey, 22 Duty Free Shoppers Group, 100 E Eat to Live (Fuhrman), 133 economic wisdom on annuities, 67 education spending, 27, 99 family time, 94 healthcare spending, 72 Life-Cycle Hypothesis (LCH), 46 personal choices, 170 precautionary saving, 58 timing of spending, 5, 47, 103–4 wealth transfers, 83–84 Elizabeth (working for free example), 43–45 Employee Benefit Research Institute, 52–53 energy-processing units (humans as), 16 Europe, 12, 19–21, 29, 33, 105 experience points, 25–26, 30–31, 34, 124–25, 155–56, 163–64, 189, 199–200 experiences age and timing of, 4–6, 21, 110–15, 179–80, 182–83 backpacking trip, 19–21 Central American vacation property, 32 choices, 35–37 happiness and, 13–14, 191–92, 206m33 impact of failure, 179–81 life experiences, 18, 24–25 numerical value on, 24–25 return on, 33–34 start early, 34–35, 37 See also fulfillment curve F Facebook (FB), 29–30 Farrell, Joe, 9–10, 103–7 fear as enemy of rational thinking, 84 boldness as an older person, 187–88 inaction and, 189 moving and travel, 184–87 running out of money, 14–16, 50, 85, 207m5 versus low risk tolerance, 68–69, 188–89 Federal Reserve Board, 51, 80 Feeney, Chuck, 100–101 Final Countdown (app), 74–75, 209m74 financial advisers, 34, 69–71, 104, 161–62 “finish rich,” as antithesis of Bill Perkins’s life goal, 36 FIRE movement, 10, 104 Florida, 160 Freakonomics (Levitt), 104 Friedman, Milton, 104 friends and family of Bill Perkins, stories about Arnold, John, 40–41 Baird, 88 Chris (Lara’s granddad), 112 Erin, 1 Greg, 111–112 inheritor with miserable childhood, 90 interested in giving to charity after a new business succeeds, 100 Paulie, 32 Richey, Cooper, 72 Ruffo, Jason, 19–20 Schwartz, Andy, 169–70 Staples, Jaime and Matt, 125–26 Tia (sister), 175 See also Grandma frog dissection, and underutilizing adult freedom, 36 Fuhrman, Joel, 133 fulfillment, 6, 17–35, 90, 107 fulfillment curve, 26, 31, 118, 123, 200–201 fulfillment score, 114, 203 G Gates, Bill, 6–7, 101 gifts cash gift to Grandma, 55 charitable, 96–101 to kids, 89–94 to Morehouse College, 98 go-go, slow-go, no-go years, 54–56 Golden Girls, The, 173, 212m173 golden years, 118–19, 171, 192 Goonies, The (film), 181–82 Grandma and avoiding risk, 189 plastic on furniture, 55 sweater story, 55, 115 H happiness acting on, 4–5 experiences, 13–14 travel, 110 See also fulfillment health and healthcare ability to enjoy experiences based on health, 114, 116, 119, 163, 174 age and diminished enjoyment, 110–17, 133 cancer, 1–3 health curves, 113–14 health goals betting, 125–26 insurance, 57, 59–60, 208m57 preventive care, 59, 125, 133, 174–75 unknown expenses, 56–59 value of, 121–23 weight, impact of, 122–26 Heinrich, Carolyn, 94 honorary billionaire, 6 I inertia, See autopilot inheritance, children’s afterthought or caring, 77–78, 83–84 age and timing of, 49–50, 79–82, 86–89, 99–101, 207m50 educational savings plan (529 plan), 89 give while you are alive, 78–79, 169 “in vivo” transfers, 83, 85 Probability of Inheritance Receipt, 81 randomness, 80–81, 83–84 insurance alien robot invasion insurance, 57 annuities, 65–67 health insurance, 57, 59–60, 208m57 life insurance, 65 long-term care insurance, 59, 85 you are not a good insurance agent, 65–69 investing in experiences, 19–37 in human capital, 27 return on experience versus return on equity, 33 iPad full of memories (gift), 23 J Jeopardy, 115, 173, 212m173 Joe Nose-to-the-Grindstone and Sue Spendy, 16 J.P.

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Morgan Asset Management, 56 K kids inheritance and legacy, 77–101 See also children king of natural gas, See Arnold, John knees and weight, 12, 121, 124 Krakovsky, Marina, 81 L Las Vegas (experienced at different ages), 131 latte factor, 36–37, 206m36 laundry, as example of trading money for time, 126–27 legacy, as memories of you, 89 Levitt, Steven, 104, 108 Lieber, Ron, 66 life choices, 21–22 Life-Cycle Hypothesis (LCH), 46 life energy, 155 financial understanding, 43–46 and origins of life, 205m16 processing, 16–17 spending-saving ratio and, 107–8 underspending and, 71 wasting, 43–47 life enjoyment, 70–71, 88 See also balance: health, money, time life expectancy calculation, 61–63, 87, 158 Actuaries Longevity Illustrator, 63 Living to 100 calculator, 64 risk tolerance, 68–69 LifeSpan (clinic), 14 life stages, 135–36 mini-deaths, 137, 141 windows of opportunity, 137–39 lifestyle and spending, 169–70 living as if today is your last day, 73–74 longevity risk, 64–65, 67–68 love of your job as excuse for not dying with zero, 47–49 and retirement, 167 M Mario (and extra lives), 49 Maroon 5 (band), 41 marshmallow test, 130 Matrix, The (film), 11 maximizing lifetime fulfillment as complex optimization problem, 17 as life goal, 7–26 in contrast to maximizing your wealth, 70 medical expenses, See health and healthcare Medicare and Social Security, 164–65 memories acquisition of, 22–23 best vacation, 30 children and parents, 90–93 photo albums, 29 memory dividend, 13, 26–34, 37, 90, 92, 105, 179, 186 Merchant, Natalie, 151–52 MicroSolutions, 178 mini-deaths, 136–38 Mischel, Walter, 130 Modigliani, Franco, 46 mortality risk, 64–65 movement is life, 16, 124 moving for work, 184–87 myopia, See short-term rewards N nest egg, optimal time to crack, 165–67 net worth defined, 154 median, 51–52 New York Times, 66, 95 no-go years, 54–56, 173 O once-in-a-lifetime experiences, 22, 105, 131 optimization, See maximizing lifetime fulfillment P peak (net worth), 149–76 Accumulation of Net Worth, 166 age of, 167 Declining Utility of Money with Age, 163 lifetime net worth, 154–56, 165–66 “phased retirement,” 171 peak utility of money, 86 pensioners’ spending, 54 personal interest rate, 128–30 Pew Charitable Trusts, 164 philanthropy, See charity pickleball, 125 plastic on furniture, 55–56 Pooh’s Heffalump Movie, 135–36 precautionary saving, 58 prop bets, 125–26 Q quantifying the fear, 184–87 R real estate investments, 32–33 regrets, 71, 138–41 relationships maintaining after moving, 184–85 paying for friends to share experiences, 150 See also Kids Renna, Chris, 14–15 resources, exchange of abundant for scarce, 120 retirement go-go, slow-go, no-go years, 54–56 involuntary, 164–65 memories in, 23, 33 “phased retirement,” 171 saving for, 23–24, 161–62 spending in, 52–54 See also annuities; savings threshold Richey, Cooper, 72 risk tolerance, 68–69, 188–89 Robins, Vicki, 10 Ruffo, Jason, 19–21, 29 rules balance rules, limitation of 106–7 number 1 (maximize), 1 number 2 (invest in experiences), 19 number 3 (die with zero), 39 number 4 (available tools), 61 number 5 (children and charity), 77 number 6 (autopilot), 103 number 7 (distinct seasons), 135 number 8 (stop growing wealth), 149 number 9 (biggest risks), 177 of thumb (compared to maximizing), 201 See also 50-30-20 rule S savings or spending age and timing of, 103–4 Balanced Money Formula, 106–10 heedless spending, 105–6 Median Net Worth by Age, 51 net worth, 51–52 personal finance advice, 106–7 stages of life and, 107–9, 115–17, 119, 192 savings threshold, 156–60 Scheinkman, José, 104 Schwartz, Andy, 169–70 Shefrin, Hersh, 47 short-term rewards, 46 simulations of earning and spending scenarios, 165–66 skiing, 94, 111–12 Smith, Robert F., 98 smoking, 42, 62, 114 Social Security, 43, 45, 164–65 Society of Actuaries, 63 Soggy Dollar Bar, 112 Space Invaders, 7 spending money on experiences versus things, 13 Staples, Jaime and Matt, 125–26 Starbucks, 36–37 Statman, Meir, 170 St.

Daughter Detox: Recovering From an Unloving Mother and Reclaiming Your Life
by Peg Streep
Published 14 May 2017

It will not surprise you that there’s evidence that our childhood experiences—specifically those connected to our mothers—also affect our self-control. To eat the marshmallow or not? That was the dilemma posed by Walter Mischel and his colleagues to a large group of four-year-olds over 50 years ago at Stanford University in an experiment so famous that it’s now known simply as the “Marshmallow Test.” Each child was seated at a desk; there was a single marshmallow on a plate and, beside it, a bell. The researcher then told the child she had to leave and the child was free to eat the marshmallow and ring the bell. But, she promised, if the child waited until she came back, the reward would be a second marshmallow.

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TURN DOWN THE HEAT: DEALING WITH REJECTION SENSITIVITY One of the best discussions of rejection sensitivity I’ve read describes it as “hot” reactivity, which is completely emotionally fueled. (Yes, this is the same terminology used in the discussion on how to reframe memories using cool processing.) Ozlem Ayduk and a team that included Walter Mischel (who ran the famous delayed gratification “Marshmallow Test” described on page 103 ) wanted to know if children who had successfully been able to delay gratification would actually be more skilled at managing rejection sensitivity. You may remember that the children who managed to resist the marshmallow did so by distracting themselves—looking away, singing, staring into the distance, whatever worked.

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Review of General Psychology , 2005, vol. 9(2), pp. 111-131. Mayer, John D., and Peter Salovey, What is Emotional Intelligence?, in Emotional Development and Emotional Intelligence: Educational Implications , edited by Peter Salovey and David J. Sluyter. New York: Basic Books, 1997. Mischel, Walter. The Marshmallow Test: Why Self-Control Is the Engine of Success . New York: Little, Brown and Company, 2015. Shoda, Yuichi, Walter Mischel, and Philip K. Peake. Predicting Adolescent Cognitive and Self-Regulatory Competencies from Preschool Delay of Gratification: Identifying Diagnostic Conditions. Developmental Psychology , 1990, vol. 26(6), pp. 978-986. 5.

The Vanishing Neighbor: The Transformation of American Community
by Marc J. Dunkelman
Published 3 Aug 2014

NORTON & COMPANY New York | London For Kathryn Contents Introduction: From One Queen City to the Next Part 1: Rumblings 1 THE WARNING 2 THE THIRD WAVE 3 THE CHINATOWN BUS EFFECT 4 THE BIG CLIMB 5 CONFORMITY COMES FULL CIRCLE Part 2: The Missing Rings 6 A BRIEF HISTORY OF AMERICAN COMMUNITY 7 BANDS, VILLAGES, AND TRIBES 8 THE SEARCH FOR AFFIRMATION 9 THE MISSING RINGS 10 EXIT TOCQUEVILLE 11 AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT Part 3: America Explained 12 VALUABLE INEFFICIENCY 13 THE ROOTS OF DELIBERATION 14 THE GIANT SUCKING SOUND 15 THE MARSHMALLOW TEST CONCLUSION: THE CRISIS OF AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM Acknowledgments Notes Index Introduction FROM ONE QUEEN CITY TO THE NEXT Beyond wondering whether our new family room would have enough shelving to store all my toys, I wasn’t particularly alarmed when Mom and Dad announced in the summer of 1984 that we’d be moving from Cincinnati to Buffalo.

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But rather than bicker endlessly about how to balance the books, we need to think creatively about how the transformation of American community has exacerbated the crisis, and how adjusting our institutions to our new social architecture can play a crucial role in shaping a long-term solution. 15 THE MARSHMALLOW TEST As we’ve seen, there’s very little to be gained by arguing over whether the transformation of American community is good or bad. The shift has happened and we need to adjust. The last chapter argued that the institutions that seem so feckless today will have to adapt to the new rhythms of American life.

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Beyond the sorts of institutional reforms suggested in the last chapter, there’s a strategy available that might well induce future generations to rebuild the bridges that have disappeared. During the 1960s, Walter Mischel, a psychology professor then on the faculty at Stanford, conceived of a revolutionary experiment designed to measure an individual’s capacity for self-control.1 Conducting what is now known as the “marshmallow test,” he placed a four-year-old and a researcher in a room with an edible treat set on a plate between them. At the outset, the researcher would explain that she needed to run an errand, but would return soon. She would then make clear that during her absence the four-year-old could ring a bell, which would call the researcher back, at which point the child would receive permission to eat the treat.

The Joys of Compounding: The Passionate Pursuit of Lifelong Learning, Revised and Updated
by Gautam Baid
Published 1 Jun 2020

Delayed gratification, which requires second order thinking, is less crowded and more likely to get results. —Shane Parrish In the 1960s, Walter Mischel, an American psychologist specializing in personality theory and social psychology, conducted a famous experiment at Stanford University’s nursery school. In the experiment, now widely known as the Stanford marshmallow experiment, four- and five-year-olds were presented with a difficult choice. They could eat one treat—a marshmallow—immediately, or they could wait fifteen minutes more and be rewarded with two marshmallows. Over the next forty years, the children were included in follow-up studies. It was found that the children who were willing to delay gratification and waited to receive the second marshmallow ended up having higher SAT scores, lower levels of substance abuse, lower likelihood of obesity, better responses to stress, better social skills as reported by their parents, and better scores on a range of other life measures.

Survival of the Friendliest: Understanding Our Origins and Rediscovering Our Common Humanity
by Brian Hare and Vanessa Woods
Published 13 Jul 2020

It is the space between a thought and an action, the look before the leap. Without self-control, we would all be divorced, in prison, or dead. Some people have more self-control than others, and by studying these variations, researchers have demonstrated how central this trait is throughout our lives. One test of self-control is the famous marshmallow test, in which researchers give four- to six-year-old children a marshmallow and tell them they can either eat it right away or wait until the researcher returns and receive more marshmallows. Some children ate the marshmallow immediately, while others waited ten and even fifteen minutes without giving in to the temptation.19 Children who ate the marshmallow right away were more likely to struggle in school, have trouble paying attention, and have difficulty maintaining friendships.

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In various studies, when these same children grew up, they were more likely to be overweight, earn less money, and have criminal records.20, 21, 22 Self-control is just as important for nonhuman animals when they make decisions, and some species of animals seem to have more self-control than others. The biologist Evan MacLean and I came up with an easy way to compare levels of self-control between distantly related species—a kind of marshmallow test for animals.23 We put a treat inside a plastic cylinder that was open at both ends but fitted with a cloth that made it opaque. An animal could watch and remember as we placed the food inside. Then, after introducing this simple hiding game, we introduced our self-control test. We changed the cylinder in a way that at first would seem to make the problem easier.

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We used the results to test big ideas about what leads some species to be more cognitively sophisticated than others. I thought, as has long been argued, that animals that lived in larger groups—creating more complex social relationships—would require more inhibition to navigate life successfully. Instead, we found that the animals who passed their own marshmallow test simply had brains with more raw computing power. The small-brained animals we tested struggled with self-control, while larger-brained animals mastered the test almost immediately.23 The neuroscientist Suzana Herculano-Houzel has a theory that suggests why this might be. Herculano-Houzel was the first person to accurately count the number of neurons in animal brains.

The Biology of Desire: Why Addiction Is Not a Disease
by Marc Lewis Phd
Published 13 Jul 2015

The chapter about Alice highlighted ego fatigue, the breakdown of cognitive control when people try to suppress their feelings or block their impulses for some length of time. Both of these psychological vulnerabilities are natural, both are shared with other animals, and both correspond with specific neural events. Now appeal was famously depicted by Walter Mischel’s marshmallow test: three-to-four-year-old children were told they could eat one marshmallow as soon as the examiner left the room, but if they waited a few minutes until she returned, they would have two to eat. Three-year-olds most often gobbled the first marshmallow in no time, thereby losing the opportunity for a second.

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See Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders dual process model. See horse-and-rider model ecstasy, 49 ego fatigue Alice and, 148, 150–151 Baumeister study of, 149 brain and, 150 conscious attention and, 158–159 emotion repression and, 150 horse-and-rider model and, 156–157 loss of control and, 185–189 marshmallow test and, 184 microcosm of addiction, 157 now appeal and, 151 reframing and, 185 self-control and, 148–149 summarized, 199 suppression and, 185 electrochemical energy, 38 emotion accumbens and, 79, 81–82 amygdala and, 79–80, 81–82 cognition linked with, 81–82 Donna hiding, 99–100 ego fatigue and, 150 habit and, 33–36 habit development and, 35–36 intensity of, 31, 39–40 learning and, 40, 104, 194 medial PFC and, 105–106 negative, 33–34 neurons and, 39–40 OFC and, 40, 81–82, 104, 194 strong, 31 empowerment cognition-based techniques and, 209 learning and, 10 nomenclature and, 16 treatment and, 212–214 environmental factors, 2 Everitt, Barry, 129–130 expectancy, desire and, 174, 175 experience brain and, 30–33 neuroplasticity and, 32–33 psychology and, 168–169 recovery and, 198–203 striatum structured by, 56 strong emotion and, 31 synaptic change, 30, 104, 127 feedback brain and, 30–31, 34–38 growth and, 34–35 habit development and, 35–36 Johnny and, 121–122 personality development and, 36–37 self-organization stemming from, 34 feelings.

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development and, 10 emotion and, 40, 104, 194 empowerment and, 10 neuroplasticity and, 194 OFC and, 40, 104, 194 repetition and, 40 Volkow and, 8 left dorsolateral PFC, 186, 187 (fig.), 191 Lilienfeld, S. O., 24 limbic system, 30 lollies, 73–74 love addiction and, 166–168, 176–177, 181–182 brain and, 166–168 disease model and, 168 dopamine and, 166–167 lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD), 48–49 marshmallow test, 184 Maté, Gabor, 36 maypole metaphor, 127, 157, 182 medial prefrontal cortex (medial PFC), 45 Donna and, 183 location of, 104–105 self-image and emotional goals and, 105–106 social knowledge and, 105–107 two personae and, 106–107 medical science disease model and, 5–6, 18 meditation, 64–65, 200 mental habit, 33 methamphetamine lollies and, 73–74 sleep and, 74–75 See also Brian mice, 82 midbrain, 44 (fig.), 45 dopamine and, 57–58 Mind and Life Institute, 8 Minnesota Model, 13, 14 Mischel, Walter, 184 Mogilner, Alex, 195, 196 (fig.)

Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst
by Robert M. Sapolsky
Published 1 May 2017

Marshmallows The frontal cortex and its increasing connectivity with the rest of the brain anchors the neurobiology of kids’ growing sophistication, most importantly in their capacity to regulate emotions and behavior. The most iconic demonstration of this revolves around an unlikely object—the marshmallow.20 In the 1960s Stanford psychologist Walter Mischel developed the “marshmallow test” to study gratification postponement. A child is presented with a marshmallow. The experimenter says, “I’m going out of the room for a while. You can eat the marshmallow after I leave. But if you wait and don’t eat it until I get back, I’ll give you another marshmallow,” and leaves.

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Work by Martha Farah of the University of Pennsylvania, Tom Boyce of UCSF, and others demonstrates something outrageous: By age five, the lower a child’s socioeconomic status, on the average, the (a) higher the basal glucocorticoid levels and/or the more reactive the glucocorticoid stress response, (b) the thinner the frontal cortex and the lower its metabolism, and (c) the poorer the frontal function concerning working memory, emotion regulation, impulse control, and executive decision making; moreover, to achieve equivalent frontal regulation, lower-SES kids must activate more frontal cortex than do higher-SES kids. In addition, childhood poverty impairs maturation of the corpus callosum, a bundle of axonal fibers connecting the two hemispheres and integrating their function. This is so wrong—foolishly pick a poor family to be born into, and by kindergarten, the odds of your succeeding at life’s marshmallow tests are already stacked against you.34 Considerable research focuses on how poverty “gets under the skin.” Some mechanisms are human specific—if you’re poor, you’re more likely to grow up near environmental toxins,*35 in a dangerous neighborhood with more liquor stores than markets selling produce; you’re less likely to attend a good school or have parents with time to read to you.

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Hamlin et al., “Social Evaluation by Preverbal Infants,” Nat 450 (2007): 557; M. Hoffman, Empathy and Moral Development: Implications for Caring and Justice (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001). 20. W. Mischel et al., “Cognitive and Attentional Mechanisms in Delay of Gratification,” JPSP 21 (1972): 204; W. Mischel, The Marshmallow Test: Understanding Self-Control and How to Master It (New York: Bantam Books, 2014); K. McRae et al., “The Development of Emotion Regulation: An fMRI Study of Cognitive Reappraisal in Children, Adolescents and Young Adults,” SCAN 7 (2012): 11; H. Palmeri and R. N. Aslin, “Rational Snacking: Young Children’s Decision-Making on the Marshmallow Task is Moderated by Beliefs About Environmental Reliability,” Cog 126 (2013): 109. 21.

Escape From Model Land: How Mathematical Models Can Lead Us Astray and What We Can Do About It
by Erica Thompson
Published 6 Dec 2022

Two famous results of behavioural economics are presented as ‘paradoxes’ that show people choosing to behave irrationally, against the course of action suggested by a model of the situation. Yet I think their results can be explained much more easily by the trivial observation that real people live in the real world, not in Model Land. First, the Marshmallow Test. This is an experiment where a child is offered a single marshmallow (perhaps left invitingly in front of them on the table), but told that if they can wait they will be given more marshmallows later. Of course, the ‘rational’ approach, in Model Land, to maximising the number of marshmallows means waiting and taking the larger amount.

You've Been Played: How Corporations, Governments, and Schools Use Games to Control Us All
by Adrian Hon
Published 14 Sep 2022

Vox, October 14, 2020, www.vox.com/future-perfect/21504366/science-replication-crisis-peer-review-statistics. 7. Brian Resnick, “The ‘Marshmallow Test’ Said Patience Was a Key to Success. A New Replication Tells Us S’More.” Vox, June 6, 2018, www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/6/6/17413000/marshmallow-test-replication-mischel-psychology; Yuichi et al., “Predicting Adolescent Cognitive and Self-Regulatory Competencies from Preschool Delay of Gratification: Identifying Diagnostic Conditions,” Developmental Psychology 26, no. 6 (2016): 978–986, https://doi.org/10.1037/0012-1649.26.6.978; Tyler W. Watts et al., “Revisiting the Marshmallow Test: A Conceptual Replication Investigating Links Between Early Delay of Gratification and Later Outcomes,” Psychological Science 29, no. 7 (July 2018): 1159–1177, https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797618761661. 8.

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Exaggerations can also occur intentionally, when marketers cherry-pick the single best improvement from a study and suggest it applies to their entire app. These misrepresentations come at a time when behavioural science itself has been in the midst of a “replication crisis,” along with fields like economics and medicine.6 Influential findings like the results of the marshmallow test, which showed that children’s ability to delay gratification predicted their future academic achievement, have failed to be replicated after repeated retesting.7 In other words, a lot of what’s published in scientific journals has turned out to be completely wrong. In response to this crisis, scientists are adopting better practices, such as using better statistical methods, more diligently retracting bad papers, and preregistering studies to avoid cherry-picking results.

The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest
by Edward Chancellor
Published 15 Aug 2022

Originally titled ‘The Preschool Self-Imposed Delay of Immediate Gratification for the Sake of Delayed but More Valued Rewards Paradigm’, Mischel’s study is popularly known, after the particular reward on offer, as ‘The Marshmallow Test’.55 Of the six hundred children who took the original test, a third of the children deferred gratification long enough to receive their extra marshmallow. The Marshmallow Test shows that humans, or at least pre-schoolers, are impatient. They exhibit positive ‘time preference’. The bonus marshmallow can be seen as a kind of interest. Various arguments have been advanced as to why people prefer present over future satisfactions.

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‘To save,’ wrote Frédéric Bastiat, ‘is deliberately to put an interval between the moment when the services are made for the society, and that when the equivalent is received from it.’3 The reward for this ajournement is interest. Various commentators from Bentham onwards have treated interest as the difference in value between present and future consumption. As we have seen, the Marshmallow Test shows that at least a proportion of children, when faced with a choice between an immediate marshmallow or two marshmallows in future, are prepared to wait. The second marshmallow is waiting’s reward. Irving Fisher put it nicely when he wrote that ‘Interest is, as it were, human impatience crystallized into a market rate.’4 Economists talk about time preference rather than impatience to describe how people value present and future goods differently.

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Millett, Paul, Lending and Borrowing in Ancient Athens (Cambridge, 1991). Mills, John, ‘On Credit Cycles and the Origin of Commercial Panics’, Manchester Statistical Society, 11 December 1867. Mirowski, Philip, Never Let a Serious Crisis Go to Waste: How Neoliberalism Survived the Financial Meltdown (London, 2013). Mischel, Walter, The Marshmallow Test: Understanding Self-Control and How to Master It (London, 2014). Mises, Ludwig von, Human Action: A Treatise on Economics (Indianapolis, 2014). Mises, Ludwig von, ‘Human Action: The Rate of Interest’, in The Pure Time-Preference Theory of Interest, ed. Jeffrey Herbener (Auburn, Ala., 2011).

Thinking in Bets
by Annie Duke
Published 6 Feb 2018

London: Walter Scott Publishing, 1859. Released on Project Gutenberg, 2011. https://www.gutenberg.org/files/34901/34901-h/34901-h.htm. Miller, Dale, and Michael Ross. “Self-Serving Biases in the Attribution of Causality: Fact or Fiction.” Psychological Bulletin 82, no. 2 (March 1975): 213–25. Mischel, Walter. The Marshmallow Test: Why Self Control Is the Engine of Success. New York: Little, Brown, 2014. Mitchell, Deborah, J. Edward Russo, and Nancy Pennington. “Back to the Future: Temporal Perspective in the Explanation of Events.” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 2, no. 1 (January 1989): 25–38. Morewedge, Carey, Lisa Shu, Daniel Gilbert, and Timothy Wilson.

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ConAgra Foods, 228–29 jobs, 41–46 Johnson, Hollyn, 55 Journal of Experimental Psychology, 55 Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 144 Journal of the American Medical Association, 55 judges, 141–44, 147, 148 Jussim, Lee, 146 Kable, Joe, 250n Kahan, Dan, 58, 62–64, 181n Kahn, Herman, 243n Kahneman, Daniel, 12, 14, 36, 52, 61, 181n Katyal, Neal, 140 Kazmaier, Dick, 56–57 Kissinger, Henry, 243n Klein, Gary, 219 Kluge: The Haphazard Evolution of the Human Mind (Marcus), 12–13, 52 Kubrick, Stanley, 19 Kurosawa, Akira, 157 language, 52, 197 Late Show with David Letterman, 119–21, 123, 125, 161, 171, 175, 205 lawyers, 28–29, 93, 110, 167, 202, 221, 222 learning, 2–3, 67, 77–78, 80, 82, 105, 108, 110, 113, 115, 116, 169, 173, 231 from experience, 78–80, 82, 88, 89, 91, 93–95 loop in, 80, 84, 120 poker and, 78 by watching, 96–97, 102 Lederer, Howard, 1–2, 101–2, 106, 123–24, 133–34, 161–62, 244n Lederer, Richard, 90n Lerner, Jennifer, 128–29, 132 Lester, Jason, 244n, 248n Letterman, David, 119–21, 123, 125, 161, 171, 175, 205, 248n Life of Lucullus (Plutarch), 160 Lombardi, Vince, 159 loss aversion, 36 low-fat diet, 54–55, 62, 85–86, 164–65 luck, 4, 7, 10, 11, 21, 22, 34, 35, 46, 79–80, 82, 86–92, 94–98, 101, 102, 110, 111, 113, 121, 123, 124, 129–31, 194, 205 skill vs., 82–85 Ludwig, David, 54–55 Lynch, Marshawn, 5, 7, 217n Lyubomirsky, Sonja, 104 MacCoun, Robert, 90, 166, 168 Madden, John, 159 Maddon, Joe, 100 Magriel, Paul, 244n Marcus, Gary, 12–13, 52 Marshmallow Test, 181n–82n math skills, 64, 181n Matrix, The, 122–23, 175–76 Mauboussin, Michael, 83n Maxwell, James Clerk, 27 Medical Daily, 49 mental contrasting, 223 Merrill Edge, 185 Merton, Robert C., 153 Merton, Robert K., 151, 153–55 Meserve, Russell, 62 Mickelson, Phil, 109, 247n Microsoft, 150 Mill, John Stuart, 137, 140, 163, 169 Mischel, Walter, 181n–82n misconceptions, common, 49 Mitchell, Deborah, 219 Monday Morning Quarterback, 7, 8, 229 Montag, Heidi, 119–20 Morgenstern, Oskar, 19, 23 Morris, Benjamin, 6 motivated reasoning, 59–61, 63–64, 94, 102, 108, 115, 132, 136, 181n, 206 MTV, 119–21 Müller-Lyer illusion, 14–15 Myerson, Roger, 19–20 Nabisco, 85, 86 nails, 197 narratives, 60–62, 95–96, 105, 107–9, 157, 160 Nash, John, 19 National Medal of Science, 154 National Science Foundation, 1 natural selection, 91n–92n, 103 Nature, 166 negotiated settlements, 40, 202 New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), 164, 165 New England Patriots, 5–7, 48, 216–18 New York, 218–20 New Yorker, 6, 218–19 New York Times, 140, 143, 153 Nick the Greek, 75–78, 84, 87, 90, 116 Nietzsche, Friedrich, 186, 187, 189 Night Jerry and Morning Jerry, 180–87 Nobel Prize, 12, 19–20, 36, 153, 166, 243n–44n Normandy landings, 208 Obama, Barack, 140, 146 obesity and weight gain, 55, 85–86, 164 Odysseus, 200–201 Oettingen, Gabriele, 223–24 Olmsted, Frederick Law, 220 On Liberty (Mill), 137 Operation Overlord, 208 optimism, 226 outcomes, 78–82, 86, 88, 95, 108, 113–14, 134, 166–68, 175, 226, 231 blindness to, 166–67 fielding, 82–85, 87, 89–91, 95, 103, 105, 111–15, 121, 194, 195, 205 negative, preparing for, 189, 226 see also future Pariser, Eli, 61 past, 178, 181, 183, 186 and moving regret in front of decisions, 186–89 see also time travel, mental Pavlov, Ivan, 107–8, 134 peer review, 72, 147–50 Pennington, Nancy, 219 Perlmutter, Saul, 166, 168 perspective, 227 Pfizer, 150 physics, 166 pinball, 198 Pleasure of Finding Things Out, The (Feynman), 72n Plutarch, 160 poker, 1–4, 7, 15–18, 28, 30–31, 33, 35, 37–38, 43, 47, 66–67, 75, 81–82, 90–91, 101–3, 105–6, 111, 115, 116, 123–24, 129, 167, 219, 231 belief formation and, 53 chess vs., 20–23, 80, 244n decisions in, 116, 167, 179, 180, 188, 196–98 diversity of opinions and, 139 learning and, 78 long hours of playing, 188–89 loss limits in, 136–37, 187 napkin list of hands in, 101–2, 161–62 possible futures and, 211 scoreboard in, 196 seminars on, 167 six and seven of diamonds in, 53, 59–60, 121 strategic plans and long view in, 179, 180, 200 strategy group for, 124, 126–27, 131, 133–34, 136–37, 155, 167, 174 suited connectors in, 53–54 Texas Hold’em, 53 tilt in, 197–98 time constraints in, 179 tournaments, 241n watching in, 97 workshopping in, 158–59 political beliefs, 63–64, 141–45, 162–63, 205 social psychologists and, 145–47 Pollan, Michael, 85 pollsters, 32, 230–31, 245n Poundstone, William, 19, 246n Powell, Justice, 143 Power of Habit, The (Duhigg), 106–7 Pratt, Spencer, 119–20 precommitments (Ulysses contracts), 200–203, 212, 221 decision swear jar, 204–7 Predictably Irrational (Ariely), 89n prediction markets, 149–50 premortems, 221–26 president-firing decision, 8–11, 33, 43, 48, 158, 229–30 presidential election of 2016, 32–33, 61n, 230–31, 245n Princess Bride, The, 23–26, 244n Princeton Alumni Weekly, 57 Princeton-Dartmouth football game, 56–59 Prisoner’s Dilemma (Poundstone), 19, 246n privacy, 157 Prospect Theory, 36 Prudential Retirement, 185 psychology, 145–47, 149 Pulitzer, Joseph, 60 p-values, 72 Rashomon, 157 Rashomon Effect, 157–58 rationality and irrationality, 11, 43, 51, 64, 181n, 183, 204 Ulysses contracts and, 201, 203 words, phrases, and thoughts that signal irrationality, 204–7 rats, 87 reconnaissance, 207–12, 218 red teams, 140, 170–71 Reese, Chip, 244n reflexive mind, 12–14, 16, 181n regret, 186–89, 212, 225, 230 Rehnquist, Justice, 143 Reiner, Rob, 244n relationships, 195, 196, 199, 223 relocating, 38–43, 45, 46 Reproducibility Project: Psychology, 149–50 resulting, 7–11, 26, 166 Rethinking Positive Thinking: Inside the New Science of Motivation (Oettingen), 223 retirement, 182, 184–86, 203 Righteous Mind, The: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion (Haidt), 129–30 risk, 20, 34, 39, 42–44, 46–47, 66, 111, 179 Roberts, Justice, 143 Russo, J.

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If we get out of reflexive mind, however, we can reduce the likelihood of emotionally driven decisions and decrease the influence of bias through self-reflection and vigilance. One way to do this is to take advantage of mental time-travel strategies. * From four-year-olds to adults, temporal discounting is a universal issue. The most famous experiment about the difficulty (and importance) of being patient, known as the Marshmallow Test, was performed by professor Walter Mischel and colleagues at Stanford starting in the early 1960s. At Stanford’s Bing Nursery School, they offered children a choice between a smaller reward (like one marshmallow) that they could have immediately, or a larger reward (like two marshmallows) if they were willing to wait, alone, for up to twenty minutes.

The Second Curve: Thoughts on Reinventing Society
by Charles Handy
Published 12 Mar 2015

A world of instantaneous messaging and simultaneous multi-viewing, of data on demand but without analysis, can, if we are not careful, lead to a shallow and self-centred take on the world, a Twittering world where no one has the concentration or time to take in more than a paragraph. Living in the present is all very well, but if we fail the Marshmallow Test we will short-change our future. Walter Mischel, a leading expert on self-control, devised the Marshmallow Test almost 50 years ago. In an empty room he presented young children with a choice: take one marshmallow now or wait a while and have two. It was a test of deferred gratification. After observing the later lives of the children he was convinced that deferred gratification was crucial to a successful life, to better social functioning and to a greater sense of self-worth.

Meet the Frugalwoods: Achieving Financial Independence Through Simple Living
by Elizabeth Willard Thames
Published 6 Mar 2018

In the unfurling of this personal frugality boot camp, Nate and I made the discovery that we were both second-marshmallow kids. Not literally, as we weren’t lucky enough to be actual subjects in this research experiment, but we fall into a category of people wired from an early age for delayed gratification. You’ve probably heard of what’s often referred to as the Stanford marshmallow study of the ’60s and ’70s, in which preschoolers underwent a now-classic test in delayed gratification. In this experiment, researchers sat a preschooler at a desk alone in a room, with two marshmallows atop the desk and the following instructions: the researcher needed to leave the room for a moment and the child could either eat one marshmallow while the researcher was absent or, if the child could wait until the researcher returned, the child could eat both marshmallows.

The Art of Execution: How the World's Best Investors Get It Wrong and Still Make Millions
by Lee Freeman-Shor
Published 8 Sep 2015

As a professional investor, I can tell you that clients are no different. Having entrusted you with their hard-earned money, they can get seriously annoyed when you persist in holding onto a stock that has made a nice profit. It gets even more awkward if that profit retraces its steps at some point. Faced with the marshmallow test of the previous chapter, the Connoisseurs had a simple way round it. These investors knew that they could not resist the temptation to eat what was put in front of them. Their strategy was therefore to take a small bite and leave some for later, extending and maximising the pleasure of success as long as possible.

Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think
by Hans Rosling , Ola Rosling and Anna Rosling Rönnlund
Published 2 Apr 2018

Some of the books that completely changed our thinking about the mind and about how we should teach facts about the world are: Dan Ariely, Predictably Irrational (2008), The Upside of Irrationality (2010), and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty (2012); Steven Pinker, How the Mind Works (1997), The Stuff of Thought (2007), The Blank Slate (2002), and The Better Angels of Our Nature (2011); Carol Tavris and Elliot Aronson, Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me) (2007); Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011); Walter Mischel, The Marshmallow Test (2014); Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting (2015); Jonathan Gottschall, The Storytelling Animal (2012); Jonathan Haidt, The Happiness Hypothesis (2006) and The Righteous Mind (2012); and Thomas Gilovich, How We Know What Isn’t So (1991). Chapter One: The Gap Instinct Child mortality.

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Filipa Ribeiro da Silva’s version revised by Jonathan Fink-Jensen, updated April 29, 2015. https://www.clio-infra.eu/Indicators/TotalPopulation.html. Magnus & Pia. Mino’s parents. McEvedy, Colin, and Richard Jones. Atlas of World Population History. New York: Facts on File, 1978. As cited in US Census Bureau. gapm.io/x-pophist. Mischel, Walter. The Marshmallow Test: Mastering Self-control. New York: Little, Brown, 2014. Music Trades. “The Annual Census of the Music Industries.” 2016. http://www.musictrades.com/census.html. Myrskylä, M., H. P. Kohler, and F. Billari. “Advances in Development Reverse Fertility Declines.” Nature 460, No. 6 (2009): 741–43.

A Life Less Throwaway: The Lost Art of Buying for Life
by Tara Button
Published 8 Feb 2018

If you can’t pay for it within a year, or without putting a strain on your income, go back to ranking the criteria you’ve set and find a product you can afford. HOW TO AVOID IMPULSE BUYING Remember that Haribo advert with the children who had to resist the sweets laid out in front of them? What’s interesting (and slightly ironic) is that this ad was based on a real Sixties experiment about willpower. It is now commonly known as the ‘Marshmallow Test’. It found that the kids who resisted the marshmallow in order to win another ended up with better SAT scores, were slimmer and had more self-worth in the future.2 Being able to delay gratification for a bigger prize in the future seems to be the key to many of the things we want – so all those Haribo kids failed!

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A Comparative Investigation of the Emotional Nature of Brand and Interpersonal Love’, Psychology and Marketing, 32: 6 (2015), 624–34. CHAPTER 10: TAKING STOCK 1.Evan Zislis, ClutterFree Revolution (Juniper Press, 2015), 52. CHAPTER 11: BEFORE YOU SHOP 1.http://www.statisticbrain.com/average-daily-activities/. 2.W. Mischel, The Marshmallow Test: Mastering self-control (Little, Brown and Company, 2014). 3.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-03-21/shoppers-mobile-blinders-force-checkout-aisle-changes. 4.Charles Duhigg, The Power of Habit: Why we do what we do in life and business (Random House, 2012). 5.Ann Widdecombe to the Rescue!

Dollars and Sense: How We Misthink Money and How to Spend Smarter
by Dr. Dan Ariely and Jeff Kreisler
Published 7 Nov 2017

It’s because we tend to value certain things right now in the present much more highly than we value them in the future. Something that’s great for us—but won’t arrive for days, weeks, months, or years—isn’t as valuable to us as something that’s only okay for us but is available right now. The future simply doesn’t tempt us as much as the present does. In his famous marshmallow test, Walter Mischel left four- and five-year-old children alone, each with a single marshmallow. He told each child that if they did not touch the marshmallow for a short time, someone would bring them a second marshmallow—but only if they didn’t touch the first one now. Most kids gobbled up their marshmallow right away, and never got to enjoy the second one.

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,” 205–6 honeymoon experience, 61–65, 69–71, 75 marriage proposal, 126 shopping for Optimum Slim cereal, 30 traveling with his family, 45, 55 unfulfilled friend’s party, 38 windfall hypothesis, 195 labor market in “sharing” economy, 160 Lambrecht, Anja, 33 Lanchester, John, 162 Langer, Ellen, 114 language, 149–66 overview, 154–55, 214–16, 220 adding value with rituals, 163–66, 179–80, 214–16, 220 choices based on descriptions vs. items, 153–56 consumption enhancement, 156–59, 163 double talk, 161–62 and expectations, 179–80 ignoring vs. immersing in, 149–52 language and fairness, 159–60 and restaurants, 150–55 sharing economy, 160–61 transformative ability of language, 162–63 Las Vegas, Nevada, 45–46 Levav, Jonathan, 50–51 listing price effect on Realtors’ estimates, 93–95, 98, 103 locksmith’s value, x, 133, 137, 140, 146 Loewenstein, George, 67, 77, 106–8, 191–92 loss aversion overview, 120–23 app for combating, 241 and employer’s retirement matching funds, 243 and investments, 123–25, 249 and Netflix new pricing scheme, 138, 138n overvaluing what we own, 219 and positive outcomes, 246–47 luxury items and resorts estate worth tens of millions, 119 prepaying vs. ala carte, 61–62, 69–70, 75–77, 228 relative price vs. real price, 29 malleable mental accounting, 53–54, 55 manipulation advertising copywriter skills, 119 new box and new price (same as old price), 30–31 pricing high to create excitement by lowering it, 104 self-manipulation, 221, 233 and transparency, 146–47, 220 winemakers and language manipulation, 151, 154–55, 162, 221 See also pricing Mansfield, Rob, 183–85, 190–91, 232 marshmallow test, 186 Martin, Jane, 41–43, 56 McGraw, Pete, 50–51 measurability, 24–25, 201, 204–5 Mencken, H. L., 24 mental accounting, 41–60 overview, 42–45, 59–60, 217, 254–55 and budgets, 43, 44–46, 52–53 cheating ourselves, 56–57, 58, 59 corporate accounting compared to, 51–52 and delayed consumption, 57–59 emotional accounting vs., 50–51 examples of, 41–42, 43–44, 45–46 and feelings about money, 49–51 integrative creative accounting, 55–56 as irrational and useful strategy, 47–49, 53 malleable mental accounting, 53–54, 55 and self-control, 193 spending a windfall, 55–57, 58, 195, 250–51 mental activities, effect of expectations on, 173–74 Mindless Eating (Wansink), 27–28, 192–93 Mischel, Walter, 186 misclassification and cheating ourselves, 56–57 mistakes.

The Launch Pad: Inside Y Combinator, Silicon Valley's Most Exclusive School for Startups
by Randall Stross
Published 4 Sep 2013

“We’re giving up cafeteria food for ramen. Not much different.” For Wu, the decision to come to YC has meant turning away from Facebook and others in the Valley, which offer generous salaries, stock options priced at pre-IPO levels, and other goodies.6 She says her situation brings to mind the famous marshmallow experiment, done at Stanford’s Bing Nursery School in the 1970s, which tested the ability of young children to exercise self-restraint. The subjects were told that if they resisted the temptation to eat one marshmallow while the researcher stepped out of the room, they would receive a second one. Those who did well in the test later thrived broadly as they reached adolescence and then adulthood.

Pound Foolish: Exposing the Dark Side of the Personal Finance Industry
by Helaine Olen
Published 27 Dec 2012

Other segments in For Me, For You feature personal finance guru Beth Kobliner, talking to Elmo about setting up jars with money divided into saving, spending, and charity categories. The segments are all about the benefits of planning and delayed gratification. This is one of the other newest ideas in the world of financial literacy and it is based, at least in part, on the infamous marshmallow experiment. Way back in the 1970s, a researcher at Stanford University decided to test the willpower of a bunch of preschoolers. He recruited several hundred four- to six-year-olds (or, more likely, their parents) and, one by one, put them in a room with a marshmallow, cookie, or pretzel. He then left the room, but not before telling them that if they ate the treat before he returned, that would be all they got.

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Randy, Jr., 200–201 Lloyd, Felix Brandon, 205–6 lobbying groups, 87–88, 99–100, 110, 200, 218 Lockyer, Bill, 100–101 Loibl, Cäzilia, 165 Lucas, Lori, 88 Lucht, Tracy, 16 Lundy, Jeff, 57 Lusardi, Annamaria, 159, 198 Mackay, Harvey, 34 Mad Money (CNBC), 143–47 Mahar, Maggie, 95 Malkiel, Burton, 33 Mamudi, Sam, 95 Mandell, Lew, 201, 207–8 Marquis, Milton, 83 marshmallow experiment, 211–12 Mathisen, Tyler, 82 McCarthy, Carolyn, 111 McGee, Micki, 33, 47 McGinn, Daniel, 179 McInturff, Bill, 75–76 McKenna, Laura, 27 medical expenses, 58, 59–60, 61 Mellan, Olivia, 227 Merrill Lynch, 162–63, 167, 213 Michelman, Kate, 59–60 Middle Class Millionaire, The (Prince and Schiff), 56 Miller, George, 100 Miller, Maurice Lim, 223 Millionaire Next Door, The (Stanley and Danko), 54 Mitchell, Olivia, 159, 198 Money Island game, 205–6 Money Makeover series, 1–2, 4 Money Navigator newsletter (Orman), 44–46 MoneyShow, 127–28, 134–37 Mooney, David, 109 Moore, Michael, 41 mortgage debt, 174–75, 176–77, 193 Mullainathan, Sendhil, 107–8, 116, 162, 166, 228 mutual funds.

This Will Make You Smarter: 150 New Scientific Concepts to Improve Your Thinking
by John Brockman
Published 14 Feb 2012

At the time, psychologists assumed that the ability to delay gratification in order to get that second marshmallow or cookie depended on willpower. Some people simply had more willpower than others, which allowed them to resist tempting sweets and save money for retirement. However, after watching hundreds of kids participate in the marshmallow experiment, Mischel concluded that this standard model was wrong. He came to realize that willpower was inherently weak and that children who tried to postpone the treat—gritting their teeth in the face of temptation—soon lost the battle, often within thirty seconds. Instead, Mischel discovered something interesting when he studied the tiny percentage of kids who could successfully wait for the second treat.

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Eliot), 293 Little Red Riding Hood, 180–81 Lloyd, Seth, 65–67 Lobachevsky, Nikolai, 109 Locke, John, 146 logic, 113, 355 Lombrozo, Tania, 336–37 Looking for Generators, 277 Lorenz, Konrad, 160 Loughner, Jared, 279 Lovelock, James, 15 luck, 105, 106–7 Lucretius, 9 Lysenko, Trofim, 88 Mach, Ernst, 85 magnesium, 360 magnitude, 12, 162, 182, 185, 186 malaria, 125 Maldacena, Juan, 297, 299 management theory, 186 Mandelbrot, Benoit, xxvi, 246, 326 Marcus, Gary, 39–40 Margulis, Lynn, 15 marketers, 50 Markus, Hazel Rose, 367–70 Marler, Peter, 154 Mars, 13, 179, 292, 360 Marshall, Barry, 240 marshmallow experiment, 46–47, 48 Martindale, Colin, 129, 130–31 mathematics, 355–56 McClintock, Barbara, 240–41 McCrum, Robert, 286 McLuhan, Marshall, 41 McWhorter, John, 285–88 measurement, 340–42 media, 41 medicine, 51 clinical trials in, 26, 44, 56 health care policies, 50, 67, 204, 233–34, 259–60, 387 physicians in, 36 terms used in, 63 mediocrity principle, 6–8, 11, 12 Mednick, Sarnoff, 101 memes, 180–81, 183, 242 memory, computer, 39–40 memory, human, 39–40, 82, 154, 376–77 cognitive load and, 116–17 Einstein’s law of, 252 Internet and, 376–77 lapses in, 116–17 state-dependent, 130 working, 116–17, 251, 252 Mendaña, Álvaro de, 361 Mendel, Gregor, 165 menstrual cycle, 351 mental garbage, 395–97 mental illness, 232–34, 279, 368, 369 Merton, Robert, 102, 110, 372 meta-induction from the history of science, 30–31 Metzinger, Thomas, 214 Mexico, 345 Michelson, A.

The 100-Year Life: Living and Working in an Age of Longevity
by Lynda Gratton and Andrew Scott
Published 1 Jun 2016

Agenda for Change 1Parfit, D., Reasons and Persons (Clarendon Press, 1984). 2Archer, M., The Reflexive Imperative (Cambridge University Press, 2012). 3Kahneman, D., Thinking Fast and Slow (Penguin, 2011). 4Heffernan, M., Willful Blindness: Why We Ignore the Obvious at Our Peril (Simon & Schuster, 2011). 5Eliot, T. S., Four Quartets (Harcourt, 1943). 6The original experiments on delayed gratification took place at Stanford in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Mischel, W., The Marshmallow Test: Mastering Self-Control (Bantam Press, 2014). 7Dweck, C., Mindset: The New Psychology of Success (Random House, 2006). 8Zhenghao, C., Alcorn, B., Christensen, C., Eriksson, N., Koller, D. and Emanuel, E. J., ‘Who’s Benefiting from MOOCs, and Why’, Harvard Business Review (September 2015). 9Sebastian Thun, a former Stanford University professor, vice president of Google and founder of online educational company Udacity, puts it well: ‘The education system is based on a framework from the 17th and 18th century that says we should play for the first five years of life, then learn, then work, then rest and then die.

Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least
by Antti Ilmanen
Published 24 Feb 2022

Empirical evidence needs to be compelling enough to overcome doubts after inevitable bad phases as well as any data mining concerns. Both types of concerns may warrant discounting historical performance. 9.1. Patience: Sustaining Conviction When Faced with Adversity2 The virtue of patience is widely known, reinforced by economists' studies of hyperbolic discounting and psychologists' marshmallow tests. Yet, many investors, both individuals and institutions, demand more performance consistency than is realistically available in financial markets. Many also believe that past performance contains more predictive information than it does. Too-easily disappointed investors may “misbehave,” impatiently churning their portfolios and hurting their long-run performance prospects.

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See also Naive Trading costs; Trading costs average market impact cost estimates, 229f minimization, 228f Covid-19 crisis, impact, 22, 73 Cowles data value, usage, 111 Credit carry strategy, 130 Credit excess return, 76f Credit market size, 75 Credit performance statistics, 78t Credit premium (premia), 74–81 Credit strategies, 125 Cross-country returns, 245 Cross-sectional approaches, time-series approaches (contrast), 182 Cross-sectional momentum, 117, 118, 182 Cross-sectional stock selection strategies, application, 121 Crowding concerns, 158–160 Cube, The, 197f Cumulative excess returns, 71f, 82f Cumulative return, 129f Currency carry, 125–126 Currency-hedged investor, function, 55 Cyclically-adjusted earnings yield (CAEY), 18, 59–60 aggregate measure, 113 averages, comparison, 65 judgement, in-sample signals (usage), 236 level, reduction, 68 quintile buckets, 238f scatter plot/time series, 237f usage, 174, 236 D Data mining, usage, 170–171 Defensive factor, 153 Defensive stock selection, low beta/quality basis, 132–133 Defensive strategies, 131–137 Defensive US equity strategies, performance, 135f Defined-benefit (DB) pension plan (D-B plans), 28–30 glide paths, adoption/changes, 32, 32f low expected return challenge, impact, 42–43 US public/corporate DB pensions, A-B evolving asset allocation, 38f Defined contribution (DC) pension, 16, 28 Defined contribution (DC) savers, low expected return challenge (impact), 44–45 di Bartolomeo, Dan, 160 Dilution effects, variation, 64 Dimson, Elroy, 36 Directional commodity index trading, 83 Direct real estate, listed real estate (comparison), 95 Discounting, 164, 170 Discount rate effect, 17–21, 17f Discretionary investing, systematic investing (contrast), 142b Disinflation, secular developments, 71 Disposition effect, 167 Diversification, 187–189, 191–194 A-B value, 190f usage, 191f Dividend discount model (DDM), 59, 174 Dividends-base Gordon model, 174 Dividends per share (DPS), 59, 60, 64–65 Dividend yield-based stock selection strategy, 130 Dividend yield differential, 127–128 Downward-sloping glide path, justification, 30–31 Dragon risk, 196 Drawdown control rules, 209–210 Dry powder, absorption challenge symptom, 100 Dynamic risk control strategies, 209–210 E Earnings per share (EPS), 59–62 Economic rationale, global change (impact), 169 Economic recessions (bad times measure), 154 Ellis, Charley, 36 Emerging market bonds, growth, 75 Empirical evidence, usage, 170–171 Employee satisfaction, evidence, 223 Endowment Model (Yale Model), 13, 37, 41 Endowments, 29, 45 Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing, 11, 26, 42, 205, 219–223 considerations, 6 ESG-Sharpe ratio frontier, stylized example, 222f framework, 220f preferences, 196 strategies, 168 themes, examples, 223t Equations, usage, 173–180 Equilibrium real yields/growth, comparison, 21 Equities beta, 101 bonds, shift, 35–36 contrarian timing, 240–242 equity-bond allocation, optimization, 201f equity-like risk-taking, 47 housing, performance comparison, 90–93 market beta, A-B scatterplot multi-asset average return, 154f money management process, 40 returns, GDP growth (weak empirical relationship), 67b valuation, level, 68 Equity allocation (stylized glide path), 30f, 32f Equity market, 168 correlations, evolution, 130f decline (bad times measure), 154 empirically decomposed equity market return, 66t ownership shares, evolution, 35f strategy Sharpe Ratios, predictor basis, 241f tail performance, 123f Equity premia, 55–69, 58f Estimation errors (MVO), 204–206 Excess returns, 9f, 70–71, 71f, 81, 82f Exchange-traded funds (ETFs), 34, 40, 83, 141 Exotic beta, 106 Expected real return (60/40 stock/bond portfolio), 19f Expected real return/expected inflation, US cash rate split, 54f Expected return, 62–64, 176, 197, 235 Expected Returns (Ilmanen), 10, 12, 75 Extrapolative strategies, 117–124 Ezra, Don, 36 F Factor, 8, 107 coefficients, 182 diversification/timing, usage, 242f factor-based investing, 47 momentum, 122 Fallen angels, 79–80, 102 Falling next-decade expectations, 20f Fama, Eugene, 107, 109, 111, 140, 152, 176, 178 Fama-French factor models, 140 Fama-MacBeth factor-mimicking portfolios, 183 Fear of missing out (FOMO), 246 Fees, 96, 225, 230–232 Five-factor model (Fama/French), 107 Fixed income (FI), 201 funds, positive credit beta tilt, 80 Flow data, understanding, 161b Forward-looking analysis, 65 Forward-looking equity premia (real yields), 59–62 Forward-looking indicators, 96 Forward-looking real equity return, 68f Forward-looking returns, 59 Forward-looking Treasury yields, decomposition, 71–72 French, Kenneth, 99, 107, 109, 111, 114, 140, 176, 230 Front-end opportunities, 80 Fundamental law of active management (FLAM), 178–180, 188, 193 Funding ratio (FR), 28, 31–32, 42 evolution, 43f Future excess returns, 238f G GAAP earnings (replacement), operating earnings (usage), 62 GARCH models, 215 Generic risk premium (1/price effect), 126 Geometric mean (GM), 81–82 Glide paths, adoption/changes, 32, 32f Global asset allocation, contrarian strategies (usage), 114 Global bond yield decline, convergence (relationship), 23f Global equities average compound/premia, 57f cumulative excess returns, comparison, 71f diversification, home bias (contrast), 188 drawdowns, 155 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), 4, 21, 38, 208 buyout index, drawdown, 99 volatility, 124 Global government bonds/global equities, cumulative excess returns (comparison), 71f Globalization, disinflationary impact, 53 Global Japanification, 21 Global market portfolio, 39b–40b Goetzmann, Will, 111 Gold, examination/history, 83, 85f Goobey, Ross, 36 Gordon growth model, 59, 62 Governance, problems, 248 Government bond index returns, 75 Gradualism, usage, 169 Great Depression, 36, 58, 208 Great Inflation, 53 Grinold, Richard, 178 Gross domestic product (GDP), 67b, 154 GSCI index, 83 H Hedge fund index cumulative excess return over cash, 144f Hedge funds, 144, 144f, 146f, 147, 149 industry excess-of-cash return, decomposition, 148t High yield (HY) bonds, 74, 76 High yield (HY) corporate bonds, characteristics, 76–77 High-yield default rates, 79f High yield (HY) market, OAS, 77 Historical average, 56 excess returns, 75–77, 81–83 return, 180 Historical bond yields, excess returns (relationship), 70–71 Historical equity premium, 56–59 Historical realized premium, 56 Historical returns, sources (understanding), 65 Home bias global equity diversification, contrast, 188 reduction, 37 Horizon, 165f, 181–182 Housel, Morgan, 248 Housing, 90–93 NCREIF commercial real estate index, real return (decomposition), 100f US housing, arithmetic mean returns (decomposition), 92f I Idiosyncratic momentum, 121 Idiosyncratic security risk, diversification, 109 Idiosyncratic volatility factor (IVOL), 134, 136 Illiquid alternatives, 36–37, 88–101, 203 Illiquid assets, 24 class, performance/risk statistics, 91t global wealth share, 89b–90b premia, 156 Illiquidity premia, 87, 95, 101, 146–147 correlations, 108t smoothing service, impact, 98–99, 99f Illiquidity proxy, A-D scatterplot multi-asset Sharpe ratio, 156f Impatience, 164–167 Incomes, equations, 174–175 Income strategies, 124–131 Index funds, market share loss, 40 Individual pension saver, 28 Inflation, 54 average inflation, real cash return (relationship), 53f GFC, impact, 21 hedging premium, 83, 85–86 increase, 215, 250 inflation-indexed government bonds, liquidity, 101–102 sensitivities, 85f Information ratio (IR), 80 Informed traders, 102 In-sample signals, usage, 236 Institutional investors asset management fees, estimates, 231f procyclicality, 246 Intangibles, B/P ratio, 112–113 Interest rate risk, 101 Internal rates of return, basis, 89, 99 Intertemporal CAPM, 176 Inverted Shiller CAPE, 174 Investable global market, history, 38 Investable indices, absence, 9 Investable, limit (broadening), 38 Investing, 34, 42, 47, 168, 243 active investing, passive investing (contrast), 140–142 principles, 250–251 superstars, examination, 147, 149, 149f systematic investing, discretionary investing (contrast), 142b Investment, 6–8, 11–15 models, taxonomy, 41f opportunities, 83, 247t problem/solution, identification, 30–31 returns, decadal perspective, 24–26 risk, management techniques, 209–210 success, forecasting skills (impact), 206 Investment-grade (IG) bonds, 74, 79 Investors, 27–33, 42–45 institutional investors, asset management fees (estimates), 231f low expected returns, impact, 249–250 patience, enhancement process, 167–169 portfolio construction process, 177–178 returns demand, 175–177 risk level, determination, 249–250 trading costs, differences, 226 value, addition process, 178–180 Irrational mispricing, rational reward, 152–153 K Kahneman, Daniel, 164 Kelly criterion, 216 Keynes, John Maynard, 99 L Large US endowments, asset allocation (evolution), 35f Last-decade performance, flatness, 119 Law of small numbers, 164–165 Leibowitz, Marty, 12, 36 Leverage, 156, 197 Leveraged buyout funds, impact, 95–96 Leverage risk management, 210 Liability matching, 206 long-duration bonds, demand, 73–74 Lifecycle investing, theories, 30 Line-item thinking, 168 Liquid alternatives, 106 Liquid ARP, 201 Liquid asset class, 118 premia, 51, 156 Liquid assets, 24, 156 Liquidity, 101, 102 Liquidity risk premium proxy, 101 Liquid public assets, 101–102 Listed real estate, direct real estate (comparison), 95 Long horizons, 181–182, 197 return, 236–237 Long-run return sources, 151–153 conviction/patiences, sustaining, 163 pyramid, 52f Long/short alternative risk premia variants, 8 Long-short value strategy, risks/pitfalls, 114–115 Long-shot bias, 136 Long/shot sides, valuation, 116f Long-term corporat bond returns, 75 Long-term per-share dividend/earnings growth, lag, 63 Long-term reversal patterns, 158f Lottery preferences, 156 Low expected return challenge, 15, 42–45 institutional answers, 47f investor responses, 27, 45–47 storyline, change, 79–80 Low expected returns, 15, 17–21 impact, 249–250 Serenity Prayer, relationship, 3–6 Low-for-longer policy rates, 55 Low-risk strategies, 131–137 LTREV Factors, 114 M Machine learning, 170, 183b–184b Macroeconomic exposures, 197–198, 200 Macroeconomic sensitivities, 199f Madoff, Bernie (returns), 167 Manager-specific alpha, 9 Market, 40 inefficiency, 143 liquidity, 87 moves, expectations, 126 risk, management, 214–216 yields, anchor, 19 Market beta, 231 exposures, problems, 114–115 Market risk premia (MRP), 146 Mark-to-market pricing, 89, 98 Marshmallow tests, 164 Maverick risk, 194, 210 Max expected utility, equation, 177 Mean reversion, appearance, 19 Mean-variance optimization (MVO), 177–178, 200–206 Medium-term expected returns, tactical timing, 235 Model errors (MVO), 204 Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), 36, 202b Momentum equity market trail performance, 123f extrapolative strategy, 117–124 monthly/quarterly momentum, 158f opportunities, 247 patterns, 245f style premia, per-decade/century-long SRs, 122f US momentum-based stock selection strategies, cumulative performance, 119f Money losses, 158–160 management process, 40–42 Multi-asset portfolio, variation, 190 Multidimensionality, meaning, 88 Multi-factor strategies, trading (increase), 227 Multi-metric composite, 112 Multiyear procyclic investor flows/mean-reverting returns (connection), 167 Multiyear return chasing, 244–246 Mutual funds, 34, 41f N NCREIF commercial real estate index, real return (decomposition), 100f Net dilution, 64 Net rental yields, overstatement, 93 Net return, maximization, 228f Net total payout yield, components, 64f Net total yield (NTY), 63 Next-decades excess returns, scatter plot/time series, 237f NIPA profits, usage, 240 Non-investment-grade bonds, 74 Non-profit-seeking market participants, presence, 126 Non-standard preferences, 157 Normal backwardation, 86 Normal cash rate, perception, 52 Norway Model, 13, 40, 41 Notional diversification, impact, 188 O Objective long-run return expectations, 61f Off-the-run bond, 102 One-factor alphas, measurement, 140 On-the-run bond, 102 OOS forecasts, 239 Optimal portfolios, information (variation), 205t Option-adjusted spread (OAS), 77 Organizational commitment, increase, 168 Outcome bias, Serenity Prayer (contrast), 5–6 Out-of-the-money (OTM) index, 212 short-dated deep-OTM index, rolling, 213 Overdiversification/diworsification, danger, 193 Overtrading, 243 P Passive investing, active investing (contrast), 140–141 Passive money management, 40 Path-dependence, role, 43 Patience adversity, conviction (sustaining), 164–169 impatience, causes, 164–166 investor patience, enhancement process, 167–169 problems, 167 sustaining, 163 Pension fund balance sheet, terminology, 28–29 Pension plans, problems, 46 Per-decade equity premia, 57–58, 58f Performance metrics, IRR basis, 89 Peso problem, 167 Portfolios, 197f carbon emissions measure, 224 choice, risky assets (impact), 203f construction, 187, 195–196 insurance strategies, 209–210 investor construction, 177–178 macroeconomic exposures, 197–198, 200 optimal portfolios, information (variation), 205t portfolio-level MVO, usage, 201–203 rebalancing strategies, 114 return/risk assumptions, 201t return sources, classification, 146–147 review, broadness/infrequency, 168 top-down decisions, 195–200 total portfolio, illiquid share, 196–197 volatility, 214–216 Predictive techniques, 173, 180–183 Price-scaled predictors, usage, 240 Private assets, 88–101 classes, valuation/expected return data (absence), 101 performance, 99–100 Private credit, 75, 88 Private equity (PE) A-B ex-post/ex-ante edge (weakening), 97f burnout, returns, 95–96, 98 funds, returns (earning), 232 illiquid alternative asset class, 88 managers, fee pressure, 96 Private market returns, IRR basis, 90 Probability distribution, reshaping, 209 Proprietary alpha, 51, 140 Prospect theory (Kahneman-Tversky), 157 Prudent Man Rule, 36 Public flows, importance, 162 Public pension plans, impact, 46 Pure alpha, 232 Put strategies, trend strategies (contrast), 210–213 Q Quality-adjusted house price appreciation, 93 Quality-minus-junk (QMJ), 132, 134, 136 performance, 134f Quality strategies, 131–137 R Radical Uncertainty (Kay-King), 216 Rational risk premia, 155–158 Real asset returns, 100 Real cash rates, 53, 55 Real cash return, average inflation (relationship), 53f Real estate illiquid alternative asset class, 88 returns, 94 Real estate investment trusts (REITs), 95 Real income growth, 94 Realized asset class return, decadal perspective, 25f Realized asset return, windfall gains, 17f Realized nominal returns, 46 Realized real return (60/40 stock/bond portfolio), 19f Real short rates, gold price history (relationship), 85f Real yields (forward-looking equity premia), 59–62 Rearview-mirror expectations, 17–21 Rebalancing, 114, 192 Regression, 180, 182–183 Replacement rate (75%), annual savings rate (requirement), 44f Responsible investing, framework, 220f Rethinking the Equity Risk Premium (Ilmanen), 56 Retirement, savings (calculation), 30 Returns active returns, alpha (relationship), 139–146 constant-varying expected returns, time-varying expected returns (contrast), 180–181 cumulative excess returns, comparison, 71f cumulative return, 129f enhancement, risk management (impact), 216b–217b equation, 174 ESG investing, impact, 221–223 excess returns, historical bond yields (relationship), 70–71 expected real returns, 19f, 54f expected return, equation, 176 fair split, 232–233 future excess returns, 238f generation process, 174–175 historical average excess returns, 75–77 historical performance, 111–112 improvement, 8–9 investor demands, 175–177 medium-term expected returns, tactical timing, 235 multiyear return chasing, 244–246 net return, maximization, 228f private equity (burnout) returns, 95–96, 98 rolling relative return, 166f smooth returns, 167–169 Reversal patterns, 227, 245f Risk, 208–210 adjusted active return, subtraction (equation), 179 aversion, increase, 160 level, investor determination, 249–250 management, 187, 207 perception, 197 rational reward, 152–153 risk-based explanations, 110, 126 risk-mitigating strategies, 213 risk-mitigating strategies, performance, 213t risk-neutral hypotheses, 128 risk-reward trade-off, 45 Risk-adjusted return (information ratio), 80 patience, enhancement, 168–169 Riskless arbitrage, 102 Riskless bonds, yields, 16 Riskless cash return, 52–55, 153–155, 153f Riskless long-term yields, historical perspective, 21–24 Riskless rate, 16 Risk parity 60/40 stock/bond portfolio, contrast, 188–189 investing, 179 Risk premia, 16, 153–158 annual excess returns/Sharpe ratios, 9f bond risk premium, 69–74 generic risk premium (1/price effect), 126 Rolling relative return, 166f Roll, Richard, 178 S Safe assets, demand, 73–74 Samonov, Mikhail, 111 Samuelson's dictum, 145 Saving glut hypothesis, 23 Saving/investment plan, setup, 29 Scheidel, Walter, 154 Seasonal strategies, 103 Secular low expected return, challenge, 15 Selection biases, 170, 223 Serenity Prayer, 3–6 Sharpe ratio (SR), 9f, 120f, 133 A-D scatterplot multi-asset Sharpe ratio, 156f ESG-Sharpe ratio frontier, stylized example, 222f increase, 120, 191f, 242f long-run Sharpe ratios, 112t predictor basis, 241f underperformance, frequency, 165f Sharpe, William, 175 Short horizons equity, 241 long horizons, contrast, 181–182 Short-selling constraints, 152 Short-term bill yields, history, 70, 70f Short-term reversal, 117 Simple expected real return, 7f Size premium, 107b Skew, A-D scatterplot multi-asset Sharpe ratio, 156f Skewness preferences, 155 Slippage, 228 Small numbers, law, 164–165 Smart beta factor investing, 8 Smart money, 121 Smoothing service, impact, 98–99, 99f Smoothness preference, 99 Smooth returns, 167–169 Soros, George (examination), 149f Sorting methods, regression methods (contrast), 182–183 Sovereign wealth fund, perception, 33 Stable-minus-risky (SMR) factor, 134, 136 Stable-minus-risky market-neutral (SMRMN), 134, 136 Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P500) Berkshire Hathway, rolling relative return (contrast), 166f returns, 24, 76 St.

Ego Is the Enemy
by Ryan Holiday
Published 13 Jun 2016

Make it so you don’t have to fake it—that’s they key. Can you imagine a doctor trying to get by with anything less? Or a quarterback, or a bull rider? More to the point, would you want them to? So why would you try otherwise? Every time you sit down to work, remind yourself: I am delaying gratification by doing this. I am passing the marshmallow test. I am earning what my ambition burns for. I am making an investment in myself instead of in my ego. Give yourself a little credit for this choice, but not so much, because you’ve got to get back to the task at hand: practicing, working, improving. Work is finding yourself alone at the track when the weather kept everyone else indoors.

Wait: The Art and Science of Delay
by Frank Partnoy
Published 15 Jan 2012

Much of that interest was stoked by a widely publicized series of experiments at Stanford University’s Bing Nursery School, where researchers presented four-year-old children with one marshmallow and gave them a choice: eat the marshmallow right away or wait fifteen minutes and get two marshmallows instead. They tested these children later in life and found that those who were able to delay gratification performed better on standardized tests in high school, were less prone to impulsive behavior, and were more likely to become emotionally well-adjusted adults.23 Since those tests, researchers have found, again and again, that children who can delay their reactions end up happier and more successful than their snap-reacting playmates: they are superior at building social skills, feeling empathy, and resolving conflicts, and they have higher cognitive ability.24 Kids with good preschool-age delay skills have higher self-esteem later in life, cope better with stress, are less likely to use cocaine and crack, and aren’t as fat.25 Children who can decide to wait do better.

…

Blogs such as Raising CEO Kids and Growing Rich Kids advise how to teach children about the pecuniary blessings of delayed gratification. Some parents have taken to rewarding good behavior not with immediate praise or presents but with tickets that are redeemable only at a later date. Yet concluding that children are better off delaying gratification doesn’t tell us why waiting is so much easier for some than others. The marshmallow tests might be widely known, but their results are not well understood. Although we have some understanding of the brain regions that are triggered by these kinds of tests, we don’t really know whether some four-year-olds are naturally able to wait fifteen minutes to get a second marshmallow and therefore do better in life, or whether we can save impatient children by training them to delay gratification for a few extra minutes.

The WEIRDest People in the World: How the West Became Psychologically Peculiar and Particularly Prosperous
by Joseph Henrich
Published 7 Sep 2020

Among eighth graders, for example, the less they discounted the future (picked the delayed choice, B) in the fall of the school year, the higher their grades and achievement test scores were at the end of that year. In fact, although both matter, patience was more important than IQ in predicting scholastic achievement. Notably, recent work has confirmed the ability of the marshmallow test to predict later scholastic achievement (Watts, Duncan, and Quan, 2018). However, this work appears to challenge the results by including a broad range of control variables. These controls capture many of the avenues through which culture shapes people’s patience, including the social context experienced by the child, the home environment, and the participant’s parents’ patience.

…

E., Bulbulia, J., and Gray, R. D. (2015). Broad supernatural punishment but not moralizing high gods precede the evolution of political complexity in Austronesia. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 282 (1804), 20142556. Watts, T. W., Duncan, G. J., and Quan, H. (2018). Revisiting the marshmallow test: A conceptual replication investigating links between early delay of gratification and later outcomes. Psychological Science 29 (7), 1159–77. Weber, M. (1958a). The City. New York: Free Press. Weber, M. (1958b). The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism. New York: Scribner. Weber, M. (1978).

The World Beyond Your Head: On Becoming an Individual in an Age of Distraction
by Matthew B. Crawford
Published 29 Mar 2015

death instinct in design intention in duration of Leap Frog Learning Table and libertarians and loyalty clubs for motorcycling compared with pathological in Pennsylvania productivity of regulation of renamed “gaming” speed of as tax on low-income people magic Mailer, Norman Manhattan Project manufactured certainties manufacturing Maoism Maria (gambler) marketplace Márquez, Marc marriage marshmallow test martial arts massification Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) Masterless, The (McClay) McClay, Wilfred McCulloch, Warren McDonald’s McDowell, John mechanization, of instruction Mediated (de Zengotita) Meditations on First Philosophy (Descartes) memory attention vs. autobiographical Mercedes meritocracy Merleau-Ponty, Maurice metacognition metaphysics of freedom Mickey Mouse Mickey Mouse Clubhouse Mill, John Stuart mind as computer Enlightenment ideas of existence of Mischel, Walter MIT Glass Lab Mole, Christopher monogamy Monticello mood moral autism morality, Kant’s radicalization of motivations MotoGP motorcycles, motorcycling alert watchfulness without meddling when riding on ice hockey vs. riding on learning to ride mechanics for on racetrack vs. streets self-criticism while on speed while on Muir, John multimodal interfaces Murdoch, Iris muscle memory music, musicians Muzak narcissism objects treated as props in narrative self-articulation Native Americans naturalistic psychology negative affordances neoconservatives neoliberalism neural plasticity neuroethics neurotransmitters Nevada Newton, Isaac Newtonian nature Nietzsche, Friedrich Noë, Alva no-fault divorce norms justification and North Korea novelty NPR Nudge (Sunstein and Thaler) nudging jigging vs.

The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined
by Steven Pinker
Published 24 Sep 2012

Aside from intelligence, no other trait augurs as well for a healthy and successful life.92 Walter Mischel began his studies of delay of gratification (in which he gave children the choice between one marshmallow now and two marshmallows later) in the late 1960s, and he followed the children as they grew up.93 When they were tested a decade later, the ones who had shown greater willpower in the marshmallow test had now turned into adolescents who were better adjusted, attained higher SAT scores, and stayed in school longer. When they were tested one and two decades after that, the patient children had grown into adults who were less likely to use cocaine, had higher self-esteem, had better relationships, were better at handling stress, had fewer symptoms of borderline personality disorder, obtained higher degrees, and earned more money.

…

The arc of crime in adolescence is the outcome of these inner forces pushing and pulling in different directions.106 Self-control, then, is a stable trait that differentiates one person from another, beginning in early childhood. No one has done the twin and adoption studies that would be needed to show that performance on standard tests of self-control, such as the marshmallow test or the adult equivalent, are heritable. But it’s a good bet that they are, because pretty much every psychological trait has turned out to be partly heritable.107 Self-control is partly correlated with intelligence (with a coefficient of about 0.23 on a scale from–1 to 1), and the two traits depend on the same parts of the brain, though not exactly in the same way.108 Intelligence itself is highly correlated with crime—duller people commit more violent crimes and are more likely to be the victims of a violent crime—and though we can’t rule out the possibility that the effect of self-control is really an effect of intelligence or vice versa, it’s likely that both traits contribute independently to nonviolence.109 Another clue that self-control is heritable is that a syndrome marked by a shortage of self-control, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (which is also linked with delinquency and crime), is among the most heritable of personality traits.110 So far all the evidence that violence is released by a lack of self-control is correlational.

…

Frontal pole: Gilbert et al., 2006; Koechlin & Hyafil, 2007; L. Helmuth, “Brain model puts most sophisticated regions front and center,” Science, 302, p. 1133. 91. Limbic and prefrontal responses in batterers: Lee, Chan, & Raine, 2008. 92. Importance of intelligence: Gottfredson, 1997a, 1997b; Neisser et al., 1996. 93. Marshmallow test: Metcalfe & Mischel, 1999; Mischel et al., in press. 94. Shallow discounting and life outcomes: Chabris et al., 2008; Duckworth & Seligman, 2005; Kirby, Winston, & Santiesteban, 2005. 95. Self-reports on self-control: Tangney, Baumeister, & Boone, 2004. 96. Benefits of self-control: Tangney et al., 2004. 97.

Bit Rot
by Douglas Coupland
Published 4 Oct 2016

However, placing my carry-on bag onto the conveyor belt, I ripped my thumbnail backwards, breaking off a wide swath of the top, and I was suddenly in that magical state of being where I could either (a) chew off the broken part of the thumbnail, most likely ripping out a chunk of the nail in the corner and so causing immense bleeding, stinging and disfigurement that could possibly continue for weeks, or (b) be an adult, wait just a little bit longer and perhaps locate some form of device for safely removing the offending piece of thumbnail. This was a very tough call—sort of like a marshmallow test of delayed gratification. As we all know, nature has programmed human beings to always choose option A, even though it’s by far the stupider choice. So what did I do? I tried to be an adult, and then…I had a brainwave. After my bag had gone through the scanner, and I was standing shoeless on the floor’s rubber padding (a place the security staff dub “the mushroom patch”), I said to the gentleman on the other side of the conveyor belt: “This is a weird request, but here’s the thing: I just ripped off a chunk of my thumbnail but it’s still attached to the thumb, and I know if I remove it with my teeth, it will turn into an unholy bloody painful mess.

Geek Heresy: Rescuing Social Change From the Cult of Technology
by Kentaro Toyama
Published 25 May 2015

“Practical wisdom” as defined by Schwartz and Sharpe (2010) is very close to the concept of discernment that I am defining in this chapter. 15.With regard to individuals, there is a rich line of research in the psychology of self-control (explored under various names, such as executive function, self-discipline, self-regulation, delay of gratification, and willpower), as well as in its pathological absence (such as akrasia, the breakdown of will, self-defeating behavior, and, in an extreme form, addiction). Academic experts sometimes make fine distinctions between these terms, but the concepts are closely related. Among those who champion the primacy of willpower are Walter Mischel, George Ainslie, and Roy Baumeister. Mischel is best known for his “marshmallow experiment” which demonstrated that young children who were able to delay gratification by giving up an immediate reward for a larger reward later grew up to be more successful in school and life than their peers who were not. See Shoda et al. (1990) and Mischel and Shoda (1995). Baumeister and his colleagues confirm that self-control is a predictor for better health, education, and employment, and further find that greater amounts of it as a character trait appear to confer a consistent advantage in life.

The Gifted Adult: A Revolutionary Guide for Liberating Everyday Genius(tm)
by Mary-Elaine Jacobsen
Published 2 Nov 1999

Only when we understand how we become victims of our own enthusiasm can we come to grips with the fact that our energy reserves are not bottomless. We must admit that our legendary verve can leave us burned out, and that scurrying about can detour us from realizing our most important dreams. An effective measuring tool for examining reactivity is the “marshmallow test,” devised by Walter Mischel. In Emotional Intelligence, Daniel Goleman employs Mischel’s test as a method of measuring the essence of emotional self-regulation: the ability to deny impulse in the service of a goal, whether building a business or pursuing the Stanley Cup. Goleman explains the need for goal-directed self-imposed delay of gratification this way: Just imagine you’re four years old, and someone makes the following proposal: If you’ll wait until after he runs an errand, you can have two marshmallows for a treat.

The Gifted Adult: A Revolutionary Guide for Liberating Everyday Genius(tm)
by Mary-Elaine Jacobsen
Published 18 Feb 2015

Only when we understand how we become victims of our own enthusiasm can we come to grips with the fact that our energy reserves are not bottomless. We must admit that our legendary verve can leave us burned out, and that scurrying about can detour us from realizing our most important dreams. An effective measuring tool for examining reactivity is the “marshmallow test,” devised by Walter Mischel. In Emotional Intelligence, Daniel Goleman employs Mischel’s test as a method of measuring the essence of emotional self-regulation: the ability to deny impulse in the service of a goal, whether building a business or pursuing the Stanley Cup. Goleman explains the need for goal-directed self-imposed delay of gratification this way: Just imagine you’re four years old, and someone makes the following proposal: If you’ll wait until after he runs an errand, you can have two marshmallows for a treat.

Advanced Software Testing—Vol. 3, 2nd Edition
by Jamie L. Mitchell and Rex Black
Published 15 Feb 2015

This appears to be an awkward translation. It would not make much sense to require a system to average N number of error messages over a certain period. Perhaps a better term would be maximum allowed number of error messages. We will use that phrase in future metrics. 29. An amusing take on this, the “marshmallow test,” can be found at http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/05/18/dont-2. 30. Pairwise testing and classification trees are discussed in Advanced Software Testing, Vol. 1 31. The best definition we can find for this term is a multidimensional data set. ISO 9126-2 does not give a formal definition. 32.

Alpha Trader
by Brent Donnelly
Published 11 May 2021

Start small and keep improving every day. Another hot topic in the world of education is grit. Grit, perseverance, mental endurance If you have kids, you have probably been bombarded with articles and parent coffees and TED Talks about building grit in your children. Fail early and fail fast and fail often and the marshmallow test and all that. Here is how Angela Duckworth, who popularized the term “grit”, defines it50: Grit is passion and perseverance for long-term goals. One way to think about grit is to consider what grit isn’t. Grit isn’t talent. Grit isn’t luck. Grit isn’t how intensely, for the moment, you want something.

Long Game: How Long-Term Thinker Shorthb
by Dorie Clark
Published 14 Oct 2021

When it comes to resisting short-term temptations (I’m going to eat that piece of cake or have a second drink), the trick is to “cool” the impulse by, as Konnikova recounts, “putting the object at an imaginary distance (a photograph isn’t a treat) or by reframing it (picturing marshmallows as clouds, not candy). Focusing on a completely unrelated experience can also work, as can any technique that successfully switches your attention.” That’s great for avoiding extra pounds. But the process is obviously a bit different for forcing ourselves to do workplace activities that are important in the long term—write articles, study for an extra certification, attend a networking event—but feel painful or burdensome in the moment.

Lonely Planet's 2016 Best in Travel
by Lonely Planet
Published 30 Sep 2015

Like, Comment, Subscribe: Inside YouTube's Chaotic Rise to World Domination
by Mark Bergen
Published 5 Sep 2022

Susan’s mother, Esther, was born to Russian Jewish immigrants on New York’s Lower East Side and became a vivacious journalist and educator, well known across Silicon Valley for teaching at Palo Alto High School, near Stanford. The Wojcickis had three girls in rapid succession and raised them to be industrious, clipping coupons and balancing checkbooks before they could drive. When Susan was four, she rushed up to her mother in the parking lot of her Stanford preschool. “We had marshmallows today,” the child said, “and I got two.” Esther Wojcicki soon learned her eldest was a participant in a psychology experiment. Walter Mischel, a Stanford professor, placed children in a room with a treat, telling them to eat it now or wait fifteen minutes for seconds. Forty years later kids who waited were physically fitter, “more cognitively and socially competitive adolescents,” and less troubled adults, so concluded the fabled study.

Brave New Work: Are You Ready to Reinvent Your Organization?
by Aaron Dignan
Published 1 Feb 2019

Then I offered my final provocation: “You do realize that you just had more fun removing and replacing ping-pong balls from a bucket than you do on a regular day at work.” They laughed. “How we work matters, doesn’t it?” If you’re willing to search, there are games and activities for learning or unlearning almost anything. Enemy/Defender, an improv game, shows us how simple rules can create complex behavior. The Marshmallow Challenge highlights the importance of testing and learning. The Cynefin Lego Game illustrates, in a hands-on way, the difference between simple, complicated, and complex systems. An Identity Walk can shine a light on diversity and privilege in a way that cuts deeper than any presentation on inclusion or unconscious bias.

On the Future: Prospects for Humanity
by Martin J. Rees
Published 14 Oct 2018

Yosemite, Sequoia & Kings Canyon
by Fodor's
Published 17 Aug 2010

100 Baggers: Stocks That Return 100-To-1 and How to Find Them
by Christopher W Mayer
Published 21 May 2018

Yellowstone & Grand Teton
by Fodor's
Published 16 Aug 2010

The Startup Wife
by Tahmima Anam
Published 2 Jun 2021

“I just said I could code an algorithm that would allow people to get a kind of Cyrus ritual, you know, a combination of all their things, wrapped up in a little modern package, without the sexism, homophobia, and burning in the fires of hell of actual religion.” “You know,” Jules agreed, “that’s not a bad idea. People might actually go for that.” I shrugged. “It’s up to Cyrus.” “What’s wrong, Cy, you don’t want to be the new messiah?” Outside, the snow continued to fall. Everything was blurry and quiet. “We need marshmallows,” Cyrus said. “Why don’t we do a little experiment,” I suggested. “I can code a mini version of the algorithm, and Cyrus, you can decide if you like it.” “You know what I don’t like about s’mores?” Cyrus said. “The chocolate should be melted. Otherwise it’s just the marshmallow that’s warm, and they’re never hot enough to take the chocolate down.”

The Master Algorithm: How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine Will Remake Our World
by Pedro Domingos
Published 21 Sep 2015

What Should I Do With My Life?
by Po Bronson
Published 2 Jan 2001

Their black boxes must work under incredible heat, radiation, cold, g-forces, electric pulse, and vibration. They had everything but the Samsonite gorilla to beat up their components. They had a kiln to cook the chips in, a radiation oven of some sort, a centrifugal whirly spinner, a superfreezer, a vacuum to re-create zero gravity, a blowtorch to toast hard drives like marshmallows. Every black box that emerges from this testing can take a beating. Aerospace engineers are obsessed with redundancy and backup systems. They know that metals give, that gears slip, that motors overheat, and they plan for this in their designs. Not everything has to go right for it to work. This obsession shows up in every aspect of their lives.

The Power of Habit: Why We Do What We Do in Life and Business
by Charles Duhigg
Published 1 Jan 2011

Public and charter schools in Philadelphia, Seattle, New York, and elsewhere have started incorporating willpower-strengthening lessons into curriculums. At KIPP, or the “Knowledge Is Power Program”—a collection of charter schools serving low-income students across the nation—teaching self-control is part of the schools’ philosophy. (A KIPP school in Philadelphia gave students shirts proclaiming “Don’t Eat the Marshmallow.”) Many of these schools have dramatically raised students’ test scores.5.12 “That’s why signing kids up for piano lessons or sports is so important. It has nothing to do with creating a good musician or a five-year-old soccer star,” said Heatherton. “When you learn to force yourself to practice for an hour or run fifteen laps, you start building self-regulatory strength.

The Village Effect: How Face-To-Face Contact Can Make Us Healthier, Happier, and Smarter
by Susan Pinker
Published 30 Sep 2013

Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought
by Andrew W. Lo
Published 3 Apr 2017

Psychologists have examined the ability of the human brain to defer to the short-term bad in favor of the long-term good, albeit in a much less dramatic fashion than Ralston’s ordeal. Beginning in the late 1960s, the American psychologist Walter Mischel conducted a series of experiments with more than six hundred preschoolers at Stanford University.26 Each toddler was presented a tray of marshmallows and other treats. The child was then given a choice: have a treat immediately, or wait a few minutes while Mischel left the room and when he returned, the child could have two treats. There were a number of experimental variations: for example, sometimes the child was instructed to think about “fun things” or “sad thoughts” while waiting.

A Man for All Markets
by Edward O. Thorp
Published 15 Nov 2016

Palo Alto: A History of California, Capitalism, and the World
by Malcolm Harris
Published 14 Feb 2023