Zeitgeist
by Bruce Sterling · 1 Nov 2000 · 333pp · 86,662 words
matter.” “Go ahead! Give it a try. But you’re never gonna get there with my act, because we fold our tent for good on Y2K Day.” Ozbey smiled bitterly. “The number-one rule. Of course, you have my word about your number-one rule.” He lowered his voice. “But what
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for you. How you could set it up with no regrets. How you could actually benefit. Finish the G-7 job with us. Get to Y2K day. Take the big money. And just go home. Marry a medical student.” She gaped. “What?” “Marry a doctor. That’s a great option, babe
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seen her smile! Like she just … faded. My little angel … God, the camera loved her so much!” “I knew she’d never make it through Y2K,” Starlitz said slowly. “I didn’t say anything to you … but I mean, how could she? How the hell could she?” “I always tried to
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shuts down, you know? There’s no sequel possible. You can’t extend the franchise.” “I know that,” Wiesel said in black despair. “It’s Y2K, boyo. It’s that bleedin’ glass wall.…” “Well, then.” “I’m not gonna make it either.” “The fuck you talking about? Of course you’re
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gonna make it! The next century, that’s gonna be the golden age of surveillance. You’re much better off without her, man. After Y2K you’re finally coming into your own.” “No, that isn’t true. This isn’t my time anymore. It’s not my wonderful time. Me
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—there’s a big cusp coming. A major narrative crisis. It’s gonna wipe a lot of slates clean. Bury the walking zombies.” “You mean Y2K,” said Viktor, leaning back. Starlitz nodded silently. The night was going well. The kid would be okay now. The kid had made his bones tonight
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at all.” “Well, normally that’s true. But this is a funny time, man. It’s the end of an era. This is, like, my Y2K personal problem. It’s, like, looming up here.” Makoto sucked air between his teeth. “Well! I don’t know what to say.” “This is dead
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righteous fucking thing.” “Well, with an attitude like that, she’s not gonna make it through Y2K.” “And don’t start on me with that crap, either! I’m up to here with fucking Y2K! I read fifty megs of CERT dossiers on UNIX date bugs. I already burned my stupid Windows
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thing I did in the twentieth century that I can’t get away from.” “What?” “It makes perfect sense that she’d show up at Y2K. Because she is the one consequence that is gonna outlive me. I can’t dodge her or deny her. I can’t crawl under her
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more yin drama. No more net-surfing either. I’ll read the Bhagavad Gita. I’ll kayak every day. I’ll realign my chakras. When Y2K hits, we’ll cut a big totem pole, and we’ll dance around it, and every-body’ll sing.” “Tremendous. That’s the ticket. Drop
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again. Get a firm new grip on your cool little alternative thing.” “You really think that’ll work for me? It’ll get me through Y2K?” “Absolutely,” Starlitz said. “That was a brainstorm, it was great. It’s totally you, babe. So: can I have your satellite phone?” Vanna considered this
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my way through! I love Istanbul—just like you said I would! It’s got cafés a thousand years old. So what’s Y2K to them, or them to Y2K? I’ll just sit quiet under some nice awning with my hubble-bubble, till everything blows over. I’ll polish my lenses
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looked up sharply. “Are you laughing?” “Fuck, no, man! I totally concur with that analysis.” “I knew you would agree. Istanbul has two futures after Y2K. She could be a Moslem Rome—or the next Teheran. A great world capital—or a fanatic’s dungeon. The playground of the East—or
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in nightclubs, wigs ripped off, fan stampedes, hotel thefts, you name it. But no dead ones. Because every single one of them makes it to Y2K alive. That is a central part of the G-7 magic.” Ozbey frowned thoughtfully. “Did you say, ‘through
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Y2K alive’?” “No, no, I said to Y2K alive.” “I see.” “Because, see, that’s when we wrap it all up and put it away. Once we’re past Y2K, well, who gives a shit? It’s all yesterday then, it’s
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not my problem. But up to Y2K, yes, that is my problem. And that means, now, that it’s your problem.” “Was this
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to shoot Viktor—considering that Viktor was an entity with such unique and rapidly developing personal qualities. A mature Viktor on the far side of Y2K would surely be trouble of the gravest kind. But Starlitz had put that kind of thing well behind him. Shooting Viktor was more trouble to
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laughed morosely. “And does it help them? Hell, no! The poor bastards, they strangle their wives, they get run over by laundry trucks.… And after Y2K their whole line of gab is gonna be permanently out of fashion. It’ll be yesterday.” “How come they know so much?” “I don’t
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, and a scratched stack of Christmas carols on vinyl. At a desolate yard sale they bagged an unused electrical generator from a despondent New Mexico Y2K survivalist. This tragic geek had forfeited his career, his marriage, and his life savings while trying to hide from buggy software. Then came a crucial
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not gonna see him.” “Why not? What about next year?” Joe shook his head sadly. “No darn radon.” “Grandpa’s right,” Starlitz said heavily, “after Y2K there’s no way.” Zeta was stricken. “But why not?” “It’s a Bomb thing,” Starlitz said. “It’s the narrative of the Bomb. There
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is no ‘Atomic Age’ in the next century. The Atomic Age is over, it’s yesterday. The meaning of the Bomb is different after Y2K. I mean, if you ever see them set a Bomb off … the Bomb was the twentieth-century Holy Grail, but it can only be the
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nuke, it never sees the original glamour, it always sees the trash first.” “No way! But what about Grandpa? It just isn’t fair!” “After Y2K it’s just not his kind of story anymore.” Joe looked at Zeta with distant pity. It was visibly paining him to hurt her feelings
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gotta answer me something, okay? When does the twenty-first century start?” The derelict brushed at a desert-dusty dreadlock. “New Year’s Day, man. Y2K. Everybody knows that. Planes fall out of the sky, blackouts all over the place …” “Suppose you start back at the year zero, and start counting
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old now. He shook his head mournfully. “Senicide medicines.” Starlitz tapped his forehead. “She’s already gone, up here, for all intents and purposes, right? Y2K can’t touch her now: she already left.” Joe’s brown eyes glittered. Joe’s eyes looked quite ageless suddenly, like two puddles of heat
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’ve placed ourselves in a yuppie town right into the fat center of a major demographic median, we’re practically certain to slide right through Y2K!” “Is all that s’posed to be good, Dad?” “Well, I’m not saying we’ll go totally unscathed. There might be a few power
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hundred million yen tax-free ‘a little money.’ I would have had some major use for that kind of bread. On the far side of Y2K a fat stack of yen would have been handy.” “It isn’t much money,” shrugged Makoto. “First hundred million yen is hardest. But now, you
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. Him.” Starlitz examined the rosebushes. “I’m thinking about this proposal. Seriously.” Makoto chuckled. “I see the future, my brother. I have no fear of Y2K. The years roll by, I just get fatter, and older, and richer. Maybe I get a little better at playing my guitar. But I have
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only one of the twentieth century’s strutting throng of self-appointed Saviors of the Nation who had no reason at all to flinch at Y2K. The grateful Turks would not rename his streets, bulldoze his airport, topple his ten thousand bronze busts and his macho equestrian statues. Atatürk’s steely
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every channel. I am raining down out the sky, everywhere. This isn’t quite my time just yet, but I am what’s next. After Y2K the Whore of Babylon is on her fuckin’ way, Jack. And I don’t come to bring peace. Because I am a bombshell.” Starlitz nodded
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occurred to me. An American CyberMoslem. Of course! And from California. That couldn’t be better!” “Might be a waste of time head-hunting one. Y2K is so close now, and all.” With an evasive grin Ozbey began agitating his shaker. “Sit down, please. You need a drink.” “I could go
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have the smell of doom.” “What about the band?” “I am breaking your number-one rule. They are useful to me, and they matter. After Y2K they will only matter more. I am turning them into my own weapon.” “You break that number-one rule, pal, and you are dead in
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Y2K.” “No, Starlitz. You’re just projecting your own Westernized assumptions. You are dead in Y2K.” “I’m promising you, right now—you drop the band, or you are dead in
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Y2K.” “I’m not dead in Y2K. I’m just getting started. You are dead.” “Ozbey, wake up, man. You have already got two
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works super hard, Dad. She’s always in the gym, and she never gets enough to eat. She says she’s gonna make it to Y2K, and get her stupid million dollars, and go home to Bremen, and sleep for five years. I mean, that was the deal.” “Maybe that could
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,” said Tim, obviously irritated. “I got eighteen acres of vintage Crays under a hill in Fort Meade, and we’re way behind on our comprehensive Y2K upgrades.” “Oh, yeah.” Starlitz nodded. “I mighta known.” “Why did you bring a little girl to a Level Three national-security incident? That’s not
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; actually, you are insane, Viktor. Not that I hold that against you.” “No, Starlitz, you’re insane; you’ve lost all sense of proper proportion. Y2K is coming, and you’re at the end of your rope. You’ve lost all sense of restraint and decency. You’re going to pop
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hippie crap. They’re petty crooks, and they’re high on drugs. They’re all over, Dad. They’re yesterday. See, I’m already past Y2K. The twentieth century is already over in my heart.” Starlitz said nothing. “The twentieth century was never as important as you thought it was, Dad
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me. After this you don’t see much of me anymore. Maybe you see me at Christmas. Well, not this Christmas. Not the Y2K Christmas. Definitely not the Y2K Christmas. Maybe the next Christmas. If I’m around. Some Christmases in the next century. If I’m available, I’ll try to
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like that. Starlitz left Turkey. In the final weeks and months of the century, he moved his base of operations to Switzerland. It was a Y2K thing; they had gold there, and cash laundries, and fallout shelters. Starlitz bought into a small software company, and radically increased its profits by the
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survival wasn’t good enough for Zeta; she was the type who prevailed. Zeta was bound to bury almost everyone she knew. When the fatal Y2K moment came, Starlitz met it in a crowd. Descending mirror balls, schmaltzy public singing, entirely predictable. Just another face, another particle in the public wave
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good. I rejoined my nephew in Budapest—he has some very interesting biznis deals going on there—and I recovered my health. When the actual Y2K day came along, I just breezed right through it. Not a problem. Who cares? Just another day on the calendar. How about you, Starlits?” Khoklov
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doomed to rapidly vanish.” “Right. That was it exactly.” “What if we reversed the polarity? Turned the concept inside out, for the far side of Y2K. Seven very talented girls, from seven troubled, totally obscure nations. Singing fabulous, honest, and authentic music. Determined to last as long as possible.” “Why seven
Upstream: The Quest to Solve Problems Before They Happen
by Dan Heath · 3 Mar 2020
vital to everyday human survival. These global issues are the direct result of an equally real human oversight many people now refer to as the Y2K or Year 2000 problem, which derives from the fact that billions of lines of computer code and embedded microchips that now run the very technologies
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to far outpace our human abilities to control those innovations, and most importantly, to foresee their ultimate consequences?” As it turns out—spoiler coming—the Y2K bug did not end civilization on January 1, 2000. What did happen, though? Was civilization saved, or did it never need saving at all? In
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address problems that are unpreventable (like hurricanes) or uncommon (like an IT network being hacked) or downright far-fetched (humanity being extinguished by new technologies). Y2K was a one-off problem—a new kind of computer bug that humanity had never faced before and wouldn’t face again. John Koskinen was
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Budget. Twenty-two months before the new millennium, in February 1998, Koskinen had accepted President Bill Clinton’s invitation to be the nation’s Y2K czar. The Y2K czar role was a classic no-win job, as Koskinen knew. “If everything went smoothly, people would say: ‘What was that all about? What
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of Transportation, for instance, worked with airlines, railroads, truckers, and shipping companies. A colleague had objected to this approach: Our job is to fix the Y2K bug in the federal government—not the entire American economy. Koskinen’s reply was “But you know if the federal systems all work and, come
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ATM machines aren’t working. They’re broken or out of money. But on January 1, 2000, a nonfunctioning ATM might be interpreted as a Y2K problem, fueling fear. One of everyone’s biggest concerns was the possibility of a bank run. If customers worried about not being able to get
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’s about $500 for every household in the United States. In the months leading up to the new millennium, Koskinen grew increasingly certain that the Y2K bug would not cause major disruptions. His public communications and interviews were calm and confident. Still, on December 31, 1999, he was not anxiety-free
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. He worried about the situation globally—every country with IT systems was theoretically at risk from the Y2K bug, and the United States had become the de facto leader of the work internationally. Would there be a foreign country that had neglected
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Y2K work and saw a critical system collapse? That visible failure—made hysterical by the media—could be enough to spark panic-driven problems in the
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other issues were more minor: delayed paychecks, stalled payments, repeated charges on credit cards, and so on. This example, from the final report of the Y2K team a few months later, captures well the day’s lack of drama: “Low-level Windshear Alert Systems (LLWAS) failed at New York, Tampa, Denver
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saying, ‘Well, that went pretty smoothly. Must not have been a problem,’ ” he said. But might it be possible those skeptics were right—that the Y2K bug was never really much of a threat at all? Some observers, such as the Canadian computer-systems analyst David Robert Loblaw, had been saying
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that were the source of so much hysteria, such as hydro and air-traffic control,” he wrote. Many of the IT leaders who handled the Y2K preparation still get incensed when they hear it called a hoax. “The reason nothing happened is that a huge amount of work was done because
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people had made a huge amount of fuss,” said Martyn Thomas, who worked on Y2K-related issues from within the UK as a consultant and an international partner at (what was then) Deloitte & Touche. He considers the
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Y2K bug a near-miss—a catastrophe narrowly avoided thanks to a successful global mobilization of talent and energy. Who’s right? It’s hard to
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a new program, and this year there were only 400 dropouts, then you can have some confidence that your work made an impact. But with Y2K, there’s just one data point: January 1, 2000. And, fortunately, by virtue of fortune or preparation or both, it turned out to be no
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big deal. * * * Y2K was a situation where we prepared for disaster, and when disaster didn’t come, we questioned whether the preparations had been necessary. Think of the
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don’t want to be exchanging business cards in the middle of an emergency.” In these efforts to prepare for uncertain or unpredictable problems—like Y2K or hurricanes—we’re seeing familiar themes. An authority convenes the right players and aligns their focus. They escape their tunnels and surround the problem
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prediction that prevents what it predicts from happening. A self-defeating prediction. What if Chicken Little’s warnings actually stopped the sky from falling? The Y2K bug was an example of the prophet’s dilemma. The warnings that the sky would fall triggered the very actions that kept the sky from
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-inc-reports-fiscal-2018-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results. Chapter 12: The Chicken Little Problem: Distant and Improbable Threats 1999 as a VHS tape: Y2K Family Survival Guide with Leonard Nimoy, 1999, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEhEQEG43RU. John Koskinen was the man tasked: The
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Y2K preparation story comes from two interviews with Koskinen in May 2019 and an excerpt from an unpublished draft of his memoir. Other details not from
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, “Bank Regulators Feel Confident Federal Reserve Prints Extra $50 Billion in Currency,” Spokesman Review, December 4, 1999; Ruth Simon, “Wall Street Deploys Troops to Battle Y2K—Nervous Investors Hoard Cash Gold as Chaos Hedges,” Wall Street Journal, December 22, 1999. lost touch… with some intelligence satellites: President’s Council, The Journey
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Report of the President’s Council on Year 2000 Conversion, March 29, 2000, https://itlaw.wikia.org/wiki/The_Journey_to_Y2K:_Final_Report_of_the_President%27s_Council_on_Year_2000_Conversion. delayed paychecks, stalled payments, repeated charges: Ibid. “Low-level Windshear Alert Systems”: Ibid. “ ‘Must
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/sections/health-shots/2015/05/07/404460240/dna-printing-a-big-boon-to-research-but-some-raise-concerns. “So we recall the fate of Atlantis”: Y2K Family Survival Guide with Leonard Nimoy, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEhEQEG43RU. A self-defeating prediction: “Self-Defeating Prophecy,” https://www.oxfordreference.com/view
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parental leave and, 13 sexual harassment in, 31–32, 38, 54 staff meetings at, 183–84 “the world avoided” phrase, 70 wrong pocket problem, 197 Y2K or Year 2000 problem, 207–13, 223, 226 Yin, Diana, 193 Youth Guidance, 118, 121 Becoming a Man, 117–23, 249, 250 “Youth in Iceland
The Weather of the Future
by Heidi Cullen · 2 Aug 2010 · 391pp · 99,963 words
competing sense that we might also witness human civilization crushed by a little bug was not lost on anyone. That bug, of course, was the Y2K bug, the millenium bug. It was nothing more and nothing less than a computer bug resulting from the practice in early computer program design of
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representing the year with two digits. In fact, the term Y2K itself was born out of a good programmer’s relentless pursuit of efficiency. David Eddy, one of an army of programmers who worked on fixing
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he coined it on June 12, 1995,1 in an absentminded e-mail. “Being a good programmer,” he explains, “I’m a minimalist typist. And Y2K was simply 60 percent less effort/cheaper to type than year 2000.” Funny the way good intentions can come back to haunt us. Actually
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, Y2K was wrapped up in something much bigger. “Y2K coincided with the end of the millennium, so it became somewhat of a Rorschach blot for our collective anxiety about the future
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more we freak out,” explains Paul Saffo, a technology forecaster based in Silicon Valley who was among the first to push businesses to take Y2K seriously. He adds, “Y2K tapped into some pretty apocalyptic stuff. And in that sense I think it has some similarities with climate change.” Saffo is a consulting
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Stanford University, where he teaches forecasting and the impact of technological change on the future. “Like Y2K, climate change is a technology problem that resonates with millennial anxieties.” I guess that would make climate change Y2K 2.0. Still, there are some important differences. Government and business spent on the order of
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$100 billion dollars fixing Y2K, but the problem of climate change is a lot bigger and a lot harder to
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solve. “And ultimately, the Y2K story ends happily with a bunch of geeks saving the world from a stupid problem the geeks themselves created,” Saffo says. He thinks it will
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that the climate story will have a happy ending. As a technology forecaster, Saffo helped persuade the business community to get to work quickly on Y2K. “Actually, it was pretty simple. I told them, ‘This is not hype. You can either fix the bug now, or you can wait until the
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the outcome of the tests, which consisted of nothing more complicated than advancing their computer clocks out in time to the year 2000, suggested that Y2K was indeed a problem. When the clocks got to the year 2000, their computers stopped working. That’s what you might call a straightforward modeling
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experiment. Even so, some businesses underreacted to Y2K at first, and then, just as Saffo had warned, they spent more money than they should have scrambling to fix the bug in their software
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as it was lured by potential opportunity. “What really persuaded them in the end,” Saffo says, “was that we presented Y2K as an opportunity. We said, ‘Don’t just solve the Y2K problem; use this as an opportunity to improve your business.’” I guess in the end, we all live in the
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Cynthia Rosenzweig works. Rosenzweig, a senior research scientist who heads up the Climate Impacts Group at GISS, hopes Americans can be convinced that, as with Y2K, fixing the climate bug is an opportunity to be seized sooner rather than later. And she’s spent her career proving that climate change is
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it, New York City has decided to fix the climate bug now. The city has decided to see climate change as an opportunity, just like Y2K. In February 2009, the NPCC released its latest report, Climate Risk Information. This presents a picture of what New York could look like in the
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I am very much into win-win solutions. And anything we do today will help us today,” Rosenzweig adds. That ended up being true of Y2K as well. Saffo says you can credit the millennium bug for the swift rebound of New York City’s computing systems after the attacks of
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9/11. “Y2K forced Wall Street to make upgrades. Wall Street had a Y2K drill. They practiced that drill and it paid off,” Saffo says. The system redundancies developed in anticipation of
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Y2K allowed the city’s transportation and telecommunications sectors to provide service despite the enormous damage on 9/11. Those redundant networks and contingency plans put
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–35, 142 wine production, in California, 142 woolly mammoths, 13–16, 17 World Bank Climate Resilient Cities, 238 world’s most vulnerable places, 299–301 Y2K bug, 227–29, 236 Zimmerman, Rae, 237, 241, 242, 245–46 zooxanthellae, 94–95, 99, 110 Acknowledgments Rob Socolow, a physics professor at Princeton University
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. Lobell, D. B., et al., Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030. Science 319, 607–610 (2008). 1. Eddy, D. Y2K Discussion List, in Y2K Discussion List, edited by Peter de Jager’s (1995). 2. Rosenzweig, C., and Solecki, W., eds., Metro East Coast, Report for the U.S
The Computer Boys Take Over: Computers, Programmers, and the Politics of Technical Expertise
by Nathan L. Ensmenger · 31 Jul 2010 · 429pp · 114,726 words
fraught with anger and anxiety. In an industry characterized by rapid change and innovation, the rhetoric of the software crisis has proven remarkably persistent. The Y2K crisis, the H1-B visa debates, and recent concerns about the loss of programming jobs to India and Pakistan are only the most recent manifestations
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observer, by the mid-1980s “the software crisis has become less a turning point than a way of life.”67 In the late 1990s the Y2K crisis called new public attention to this long-standing debate; in many respects, however, it added little to an already-established discourse. It is a
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suggests that it is by far the most popular and widely used computer language ever.40 A recent study undertaken in response to the perceived Y2K crisis suggests that there are seventy billion lines of COBOL code currently in operation in the United States alone. Despite its obvious popularity, though, from
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possible consequences of this seemingly trivial programming error included banks failing, airplanes falling out of the sky, possibly even an unintended nuclear war.1 “The Y2K problem is the electronic equivalent of the El Niño,” the United States Deputy Secretary of Defense John Hamre had warned a year earlier: “This is
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programmers in the United States alone had invested more than $300 billion in last-minute attempts to remediate the possible consequences of the so-called Y2K Bug; even still, the final minutes prior to midnight were tense with uncertainty. Like most crises, the salience of the
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diminished almost immediately upon its failure to materialize. To the average citizen, the fuss that the computer people made about Y2K was just one of several apocalyptic scenarios that swirled around the turn of the millennium, all of which seem, in retrospect, self-evidently unfounded. It
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addressing this latest iteration of the software crisis. For experienced observers of the computer industry, however, the shortcomings of contemporary software development practices revealed by Y2K were both very real and depressingly familiar. Once the proximate technical cause of the problem had been clearly identified (the shortsighted decision, intentional or otherwise
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turned to the deeper, more endemic problems associated with software development: haphazard techniques, a lack of professionalism, and insufficient managerial controls. In many respects, the Y2K problem was just another in long series of software crises which, as we have seen, have plagued the computer industry since its very inception. But
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Y2K in particular highlighted some of the lesser-known facets of the seemingly perpetual software crisis, the most interesting and surprising of which was the problem
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, modified, and expanded. The vast majority of the code that had to be remediated prior to Y2K was written in COBOL. That fact that so much of the $300 billion that was spent on Y2K involved the maintenance of existing code highlighted both the continued significance of, and dissatisfaction with, the work
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the software had not been written properly in the first place. For some observers, at least, the Y2K fiasco was yet another indication that computer programmers were lazy and unprofessional. In the wake of Y2K, renewed criticisms were raised against the “artistic ethos” of many programmers, their continued neglect of the rigorous
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, no. 2 (1989): 72. 84. William Wayt Gibbs, “Software’s Chronic Crisis,” Scientific American 271, no. 3 (1994): 86. Chapter 9 1. J. Jimms, “Could Y2K cause a global recession?” Fortune 138, no. 7 (1998): 172–176. 2. Fred Kaplan, “Military on Year 2000 alert,” Boston Globe (June 21, 1998): A1
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(2008). 15. Andrew Pollack, “Year 2000 Problem Tests Professionalism of Programmers,” New York Times (May 3, 1999): C1; Mark Manion and William M. Evan, “The Y2K Problem: Technological Risk and Professional Responsibility,” ACM SIGCAS Computers and Society 29, no. 4 (1999): 24–29. 16. John Shore, “Why I Never Met a
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. “The Sociotechnical Boundaries of Hardware and Software: A Humpty-Dumpty History.” Bulletin of Science, Technology, and Society 26 (6) (2006): 497–509. Jimms, J. “Could Y2K cause a global recession?” Fortune 138 (7) (1998): 172–176. Johnsrud, John. “Computer Makers Set Up Own ‘Universities’” New York Times (September 24, 1961): F1
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History of Computing 24 (3) (2002): 14–22. Mandel, Lois. “The Computer Girls.” Cosmopolitan, April 1967, 52–56. Manion, Mark, and William M. Evan. “The Y2K problem: technological risk and professional responsibility.” ACM SIGCAS Computers and Society 29 (4) (1999): 24–29. Markham, Edward. “EDP Schools: An Inside View.” Datamation 14
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, 240–241 applications crisis, 143 crisis of professionalism, 165–166 labor crisis, 17–18, 51, 55, 57, 70–71, 89, 114 management crisis, 143, 161 Y2K crisis, 10, 25, 100, 223–224 Software development methodologies. See also Chief Programmer Team; Egoless programming; Hierarchical management; Structured programming politics of, 202–203, 209
The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspan
by Sebastian Mallaby · 10 Oct 2016 · 1,242pp · 317,903 words
the year 2000 with the year 1900 when the millennium rolled over at midnight on January 1. Computers running on processors not protected from this “Y2K bug” could suffer debilitating glitches. And because trillions of dollars existed as 1s and 0s in banks’ hard drives, a software failure threatened to ignite
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panic throughout the economy. By the summer of 1999, the ripples from the Y2K problem were already apparent. Market interest rates rose that summer as businesses scrambled to lock in funding ahead of possible disruptions to credit markets; the
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textbook case in which the lender of last resort ought to step in, Greenspan readied his response to the apocalypse.25 Greenspan rolled out his Y2K plan in late October. It was both imaginative and vigorous. The Fed would pre-position emergency stocks of shrink-wrapped currency at ninety locations across
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the nation; crisis-management teams would be prepared in every Federal Reserve district. Meanwhile, armed with a newly created Y2K fund, the Fed offered to sell banks a promise of liquidity: they could buy options on short-term loans around the century date change. Greenspan
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hoped that merely dangling these options would calm Y2K fears; perhaps no one would actually purchase them.26 But the banks snapped up the options the way ordinary citizens were expressing their millennial anxieties
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up growth forecasts—and growth duly hit an annualized rate of 7.1 percent in the fourth quarter.28 Fund managers who had fretted about Y2K-panicked customers withdrawing their money now reported the opposite problem, with the result that yet more cash was searching for a home in Wall Street
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, the economy would run out of workers to produce additional output, or run out of foreign loans to pay for its imports. But with the Y2K date changeover just days away, Greenspan lacked the will to move. “We want to communicate as effectively as we can that we have no intention
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,” another governor observed supportively.36 Performing her familiar function, Cathy Minehan of the Boston Fed attempted to push back. “It is hard to find any Y2K panic or even deep worries out there, and believe me we’ve tried to find it,” she objected. But as usual, she was ignored, and
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first couple of finance slipped out of the White House, boarding a car that carried them through Washington’s dark streets to the Fed’s Y2K command center. There, in the William McChesney Martin Building, a hundred or so people sat in a large room, watching the celebrations on their TV
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screens as the millennium advanced westward from Asia and through Europe. Countless hours of preparation were about to be tested. If the Y2K bug so much as reared its head, the Fed was ready to swat it. Greenspan looked around the room. He was dressed up in black
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, Treasury Secretary Rubin had been a principal obstacle to passage of the banking reform that ratified Citi’s structure. 24. John Waggoner, “Fear Sting of Y2K? Try Corporate Bond Funds,” USA Today, July 30, 1999. 25. At the FOMC meeting in August, Greenspan argued that the staff had underestimated the effects
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of Y2K. 26. “If we’re completely successful in the message we give, we may never have a single one of these options exercised. That would be
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victory,” Vice Chairman McDonough said at the August 24 FOMC meeting. “Not exercised and not even purchased,” Greenspan replied. 27. The Fed continued auctioning off Y2K financing options each week until December 1, when the dwindling number of participants signaled that demand had been satisfied. By the time the auctions ended
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2000 Insurance Is Hot on Wall St., but Not a Sign of Fear,” New York Times, November 13, 1999. 29. Ibid. 30. The Fed’s Y2K options were designed to avoid a backdoor loosening. The interest rate for borrowing from this facility was set at 150 bps over the fed funds
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Evangeline Sophia Drossos and Spence Hilton, “The Federal Reserve’s Contingency Financing Plan for the Century Date Change.”) To counteract that easing while leaving the Y2K insurance in place, the Fed could have tightened the funds rate more aggressively. 31. Eddie Baeb, “For Rich Shoppers, the Price Is Right,” Crain’s
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, 382–85, 388, 393–96, 569, 573, 575 stability of, 498, 646 and stock market, 445, 526 tightening of, 366–67, 374, 378–80 and Y2K panic, 562 Economic Policy Advisory Board, 286 Economics (Samuelson), 29 economics field, 33–35, 37–38, 77, 131, 230, 335–36, 496, 552, 669, 680
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, 362, 378, 387 and ordinary Americans, 47 rally on, 609–10 and Reagan, 1, 257 regulation of, 630–31 and Sept. 11, 2001, 584 and Y2K panic, 561–64 Wall Street Journal, 93, 152, 216–17, 238, 244, 265, 268–69, 271, 337, 359–60, 400, 405–6, 422, 432, 500
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World War II, 20–24, 26–28, 40, 83, 87, 165, 183, 234, 530 Wu, Lucille, 84, 318 Wyoming, 282. See also Jackson Hole symposium Y2K plan, 561–64 Yale University, 366, 502 Yankee Stadium, 18–19 Yellen, Janet, 448, 487–90, 495, 512, 649 Zaire, 191–92 Zarb, Frank, 188
Off the Edge: Flat Earthers, Conspiracy Culture, and Why People Will Believe Anything
by Kelly Weill · 22 Feb 2022
clock ticked over into the year 2000. This was the world according to Adams’s panic-mongering website Y2K Newswire, which, in the final months of 1999, promoted headlines about the so-called Y2K bug, a mythic computer error that would allegedly send the world into meltdown when the new millennium began
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trumpet your opinions to the world, email chains were the best way to FW: FW: FW: your fears to a wide circle of acquaintances. As Y2K neared, Adams used his spam-mail savviness to convince strangers that they should really start panicking now. One of his most notorious emails, “Thirty-Nine
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Unanswered Questions About Y2K,” spread fast enough to become a well-known headache for skeptics. “Adams’ ‘Thirty-Nine Unanswered Questions About Y2K’ have arrived in my mailbox about 50 times today,” a technology blogger wrote in a December 1999
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most annoying emails as coming from Flat Earthers. Adams’s emails, though, were more than annoying; they were profitable. The mass messages contained links to Y2K Newswire, where readers could feast on fear and, conveniently for him, waste thousands of dollars on
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(“much of it too sensitive for public release”), dehydrated foods in bulk, and overpriced gold coins. A yearlong digital subscription to Y2K Newswire with a “one year basic food unit” cost $569. It was a shameless cash grab, making what Adams claimed was more than $400,000
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in six months as part of an experimental internet sales blitz. Adams also boasted on Y2K Newswire of developing “patents on search engine ranking improvement technology”—effectively, tricks to make a website appear higher in search results. Although he was vague
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to the top of search results. At least that’s what he went on to do when Y2K passed without catastrophe. When the new millennium arrived without financial collapse or martial law, Adams replaced Y2K Newswire with a single page defending his actions. (On it he claimed the site “never made a
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Natural News. Not all the sites were particularly active. Some even hosted identical articles, but by linking them together, like he’d alluded to on Y2K Newswire, Adams was able to land his websites high in the Google results for innocent searches on topics like health foods and alternative medicine. While
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do not think my reporting merits a raid by the military police.) Adams, who’d kicked off the century by selling dehydrated foodstuffs for the Y2K apocalypse, had also pioneered another facet of the Flat Earth movement: the conspiracy theory wanted its believers’ money. FEIC founder Robbie Davidson told me he
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/flathome.htm. 82 “interesting and/or revolting websites” Kate Silver, “Site Specific,” Miami Herald, November 30, 2001. 82 “government-run re-education centers” “Welcome to Y2K Newswire,” November 18, 1999, Wayback Machine, Internet Archive, https://web.archive.org/web/19991118033625/http://www.y2knewswire.com/. 82 “into the year 2000” Jonathan Chevreau
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, “Who’s Afraid of the Big, Bad Y2K Bug?” National Post, March 6, 1999. 83 threatened to sue him Mitch Ratcliffe, “Mike Adams’ Last Gasp,” ZDNet, December 9, 2009, www.zdnet.com/article
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Janensch, “ ‘Astroturf’ Threatens E-mail Form of Letters to Editor,” Great Falls Tribune, February 1, 2003. 84 “too sensitive for public release” “New to Y2K Newswire,” Y2K Newswire, http://web.archive.org/web/19991128093829/www.y2knewswire.com/new.htm. 84 cost $569 Kelly Weill, “The New Infowars Is a Vitamin Site Predicting
Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress
by Steven Pinker · 13 Feb 2018 · 1,034pp · 241,773 words
, one’s very life, take on historical meaning and no small measure of poignance.”11 Scientists and technologists are by no means immune. Remember the Y2K bug?12 In the 1990s, as the turn of the millennium drew near, computer scientists began to warn the world of an impending catastrophe. In
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of the challenge. This is not one of the summer movies where you can close your eyes during the scary part”). Cultural pessimists saw the Y2K bug as comeuppance for enthralling our civilization to technology. Among religious thinkers, the numerological link to Christian millennialism was irresistible. The Reverend Jerry Falwell declared
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, “I believe that Y2K may be God’s instrument to shake this nation, humble this nation, awaken this nation and from this nation start revival that spreads the face
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of the earth before the Rapture of the Church.” A hundred billion dollars was spent worldwide on reprogramming software for Y2K Readiness, a challenge that was likened to replacing every bolt in every bridge in the world. As a former assembly language programmer I was skeptical
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enough, at 12:00 A.M. on January 1, nothing happened (as I quickly reassured family members back home on a fully functioning telephone). The Y2K reprogrammers, like the elephant-repellent salesman, took credit for averting disaster, but many countries and small businesses had taken their chances without any
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Y2K preparation, and they had no problems either. Though some software needed updating (one program on my laptop displayed “January 1, 19100”), it turned out that
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on the current year. The threat turned out to be barely more serious than the lettering on the sidewalk prophet’s sandwich board. The Great Y2K Panic does not mean that all warnings of potential catastrophes are false alarms, but it reminds us that we are vulnerable to techno-apocalyptic delusions
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. Traditions of criticism. An Enlightenment.18 * * * Prominent among the existential risks that supposedly threaten the future of humanity is a 21st-century version of the Y2K bug. This is the danger that we will be subjugated, intentionally or accidentally, by artificial intelligence (AI), a disaster sometimes called the Robopocalypse and commonly
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illustrated with stills from the Terminator movies. As with Y2K, some smart people take it seriously. Elon Musk, whose company makes artificially intelligent self-driving cars, called the technology “more dangerous than nukes.” Stephen Hawking
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/wiki/List_of_apocalyptic_films, retrieved Dec. 15, 2016. 11. Quoted in Ronald Bailey, “Everybody Loves a Good Apocalypse,” Reason, Nov. 2015. 12. Y2K bug: M. Winerip, “Revisiting Y2K: Much Ado About Nothing?” New York Times, May 27, 2013. 13. G. Easterbrook, “We’re All Gonna Die!” Wired, July 1, 2003. 14
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rise of democratic governments after, 200 and romantic militarism, 166, 451 See also Long Peace; Nazi Germany Wright, Quincy, 418 XKCD webcomic, 127, 128, 430 Y2K Panic, 293–4 Yazidi people, 162 Yeats, William Butler, 446, 447 yellow fever, 62 Yemen, 73, 160, 222 Yong, Keehup, 490n87 Yousafzai, Malala, 232, 240
Global Catastrophic Risks
by Nick Bostrom and Milan M. Cirkovic · 2 Jul 2008
for the strain [N I H , 2006].) An example of a more successful channelling oftechno-apocalyptic energies into effective prophylaxis was the Millennium Bug or Y2K phenomenon. In the late 1990s a number of writers began to warn that a feature of legacy software systems from the 1960s and 1970s, which
…
apocalyptics bought emergency generators, guns and food in anticipation of a prolonged social collapse (CNN, 1 998; Kellner, 1 999; Tapia, 2003) . Some anti-technology Y2K apocalyptics argued for widespread technological relinquishment - getting off the grid and returning to a nineteenth century lifestyle. The date 1 January 2000 was as unremarkable
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consumers ( S pecial Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem, 2000), motivated in part by millennia! anxieties. Although the necessity and economic effects of pre-Y2K investments in information technology modernization remain controversial, some subsequent economic and productivity gains were probably accrued (Kliesen, 2003) . Althoughthe size and cost of the
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Y2K preparations may not have been optimal, the case is still one of proactive policy and technological innovation driven in part by millennialjapocalyptic anxiety. Similar dynamics
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Popkin, R . H . (1999). Messianic Revolution: Radical Religious Politics to the End of the Second Millennium (New York: Hill and Wang). Kellner, M .A. ( 1999) . Y2K: Apocalypse or Opportunity? (Wheaton Illinois: Harold Shaw Publications). Kelly, K. (2007). The Maes-Garreau Point. The Technium, March 14. http:(fwww .kk.orgf thetechniumfarchivesf2007 f03
…
Klaw, S. (1 993). Without Sin: The Life and Death of the Oneida Community (New York: Allen Lane, Penguin Press). Kliesen, K.L. (2003). Was Y2K behind the business investment boom and bust? Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January: 31-42. Kunstler, J . H . (2006). The Long Emergency: Surviving
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: Harvard University Press). Moravec, H . (2000). Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind (OX: Oxford University Press). Mussington, D . (2002). Conceptsfor Enhancing Critical Infrastructure Protection: Relating Y2K to Cip Research and Development (Washington, DC: Rand Corporation). Naquin, S. ( 1 976). Millenarian Rebellion in China: The Eight Trigrams Uprising of 1 8 1
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Against the Future: The Luddites and Their War on the Industrial Revolution: Lessonsfor the Computer Age (New York, NY: Basic Books). Schaefer, N.A. (2004). Y2K as an endtime sign: apocalypticism in America at the fin de-millennium. ]. Popular Cult., 38( 1 ) , 82-105. Schmidhuber, ) . (2006) . New millennium AI and the
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Project at the University of Virginia. http:/ jreligiousmovements.lib.virginia.edujnrmsjmillenniumjviolence.html 90 Global catastrophic risks Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem. (2000). Y2K Aftermath Crisis Averted: Final Committee Report. February 2000. U . S . Senate. Stock, G. ( 1 993). Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global
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: Mappo Thought in Kamakura Buddhism. Eastern Buddhist, 1 8 ( 1 ) , 28-56. Tapia, A.H. (2003). Technomillennialism: a subcultural response to the technological threat of Y2K. Sci., Technol. Human Values, 28(4) , 483-5 1 2 . Teilhard d e Chardin, P. 1955. The Phenomenon of Man. (New York: Harper & Row) . Thompson
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they were developed and then polished and improved over time, have basic incompatibilities with the requirements of Friendly AI as I currently see them. The Y2K problem although not a global-catastrophe, but which proved very expensive to fix analogously arose from failing to foresee tomorrow's design requirements. The nightmare
…
surveillance 16, 469, 470-1 Wright, R. 509-10, 5 1 3 Xanthomonas axonopodis, Florida outbreak (2001) 468 X article, G. Kennan 452 xenotransplantation 300 Y2K phenomenon 82-3, 340 Yellman, T.W. 1 76 yellow fever 289, 291, 294 pandemic, 1853 290 Yellowstone Caldera, super-eruptions 2 1 3-14
The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence
by Ray Kurzweil · 31 Dec 1998 · 696pp · 143,736 words
the computers vanished, then we’d really be in trouble. There has been substantial concern with Y2K (Year 2000 Problem), that at least some computer processes will be disrupted as we approach the year 2000. Y2K primarily concerns software developed one or more decades ago in which date fields used only two
…
digits, which will cause these programs to behave erratically when the year becomes “00.” I am more sanguine than some about this particular issue. Y2K is causing the urgent rewriting of old business programs that needed to be dusted off and redesigned anyway. There will be some disruptions (and a
…
lot of litigation), but in my view Y2K is unlikely to cause the massive economic problems that are feared.1 In less than forty years, we have gone from manual methods of controlling
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Web is built into the operating system. By the late twenty-first century, the Web will provide the distributed computing medium for software-based humans. Y2K (year 2000 problem) Refers to anticipated difficulties caused by software (usually developed several decades prior to the year 2000) in which date fields used only
…
.gsa.gov/mks/yr2000/y2khome.htm>, contain a number of links to web pages devoted to Y2K issues. There are also many discussion groups on the Web about the Y2K topic. Simply do a search for “Y2K discussion” using a search engine such as Yahoo (www.yahoo.com) to find a number of
…
predictions made about programming of, compared with evolution in schools speed and power of supercomputers in 2009 in 2019 in 2029 world’s first operational Y2K and Computing Machinery and Intelligence (Turing) consciousness brain and in computers/AI Descartes’s dictum and as “different kind of stuff” in evolution as function
…
integrated circuits and number of, in brain quantum computation in slow speed of types of neuron transistors NeuroSonics neurotransmitters neutrons Newell, Allen Newton, Isaac 1999 Y2K and noise nuclear technology number factoring objective experience Olds, James Olson, Ken ontogeny optical character recognition (OCR) optical computing optical imaging order computation and in
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traveling salesperson problem Trosch, Rick tunneling Turing, Alan on acknowledging intelligence in machines Enigma code and Turing machine Turing Test musical Twilight Zone, The 2000, Y2K and 2009 2019 2029 2099 United States Universe: birth of consciousness and development of end of expansion and contraction of Law of Accelerating Returns and
…
Wide Web (WWW) adult entertainment on list of sites in twenty-first century see also Internet writing, see literary arts Xerox Palo Alto Research Center Y2K (Year 2000 Problem) Yeats, William Butler Yim, Mark Young, R. W Zettl, Alex Zimmerman, Phil
The Long Boom: A Vision for the Coming Age of Prosperity
by Peter Schwartz, Peter Leyden and Joel Hyatt · 18 Oct 2000 · 353pp · 355 words
to be seen. Federal surpluses are projected to top $3 trillion over the next decade. Crime rates are plummeting in the inner cities. The expected Y2K compute meltdown never happens. The crashed Asian economies are bouncing back. Europe is booming and its chronic unemployment rates are finally coming down. China moved
…
in this promising new field. In the last year, the world has easily survived many so-called crises that were touted as impending disasters. The Y2K computer meltdown and global recession never materialized. In fact, the date passed almost without incident—proving that our technological infrastructure is much more robust than
…
global economy weren't enough, there's the mounting anxiety over the state of our technology. As the new century approaches, the year 2000, or Y2K, problem looms large. Talk about a lack of historical perspective! Here's a problem generated by the mass of computer programmers who collectively could not
…
, or even the expectation of such failures, could prompt a broad public backlash—or it may not. There's a very good chance that the Y2K problem will act like the 1973 oil crisis, which cut the supplies of oil, quadrupled the prices almost overnight, and forced almost every person in
…
shock was a thunderous wakeup call that focused the world community on developing and deploying more efficient technologies. The same will be true of the Y2K problem. Most people do not understand how hooked we already are on computers, but if 54 The LONCJ BOOM widespread failures affect services of every
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day ("You mean my electricity, my food supply, the phones, hospitals, airplanes, everything could go down?") will drive the point home almost as well. The Y2K crisis will also accelerate the shift from the problematic computer systems that are a legacy of the past to the newest generation of networked computer
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that's gathering force is the fear of global climate change. This fear is not as immediate as the anxiety over the global economy or Y2K, but long after these other anxieties dissipate, it will probably prolong the sense of urgency in the first decade of the twenty-first century and
…
with the same creative design talent, but they are the workhorses, who, among other things, are cranking out the code to solve the world's Y2K problem. Bangalore is a thriving middle-class oasis that's more the norm in India than outsiders think. It's also more about the future
…
-253, 271-272 Networking computers advent of, 22 Internet and, 22-23,190 New Economy and, 127 predictions about, 190 Silicon Valley vs. Microsoft, 27 Y2K bug and, 54 Networks in China, 127-128 in educational system, 84 for global governance, 64-65 of scientific research via the Internet, 215-216
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, 1980's, 16 environmental impact of, 155-156, 285 Long Boom strategy and, 56-57 as megatrend, 2,10 nanotechnology, 184-186 upcoming developments, 3 Y2K bug, 53-54 Telecommunications decentralization of, 22, 178 future of, 24-26 globalization of, 257 Internet and, 22-23 predictions about, 33-34 voice vs
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See also post World-War II era World Wide Web, 89, 234-235 See also Internet Wright brothers, 72 Wriston, Walter, 262 Xerox machines, 261 Y2K bug, 53-54 Zero-point energy sources, 219-?20
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