Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking
by Richard E. Nisbett · 17 Aug 2015 · 397pp · 109,631 words
not by how verbally clever a person seems or how large the person’s vocabulary is. Another important heuristic Tversky and Kahneman identified is the availability heuristic. This is a rule of thumb we use to judge the frequency or plausibility of a given type of event. The more easily examples of
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more available as we rummage through memory. But in fact there are more words with r in the third position. One problem with using the availability heuristic for judgments of frequency or plausibility is that availability is tangled up with salience. Deaths by earthquake are easier to recall than deaths by asthma
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frequency of earthquake deaths in their country (by a lot) and underestimate the frequency of asthma deaths (hugely). Heuristics, including the representativeness heuristic and the availability heuristic, operate quite automatically and often unconsciously. This means it’s going to be hard to know just how influential they can be. But knowing about
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of everyday life events. These heuristics will shrink the range of events to which you will apply only intuitive heuristics, such as the representativeness and availability heuristics. Such heuristics invade the space of events for which only statistical heuristics are appropriate. Two years of thinking about rats or brains or memory for
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numbers of prepared relationships. Genitals are representative of anything having to do with sex. Eyes are representative of suspicion. Weapons are representative of hostility. The availability heuristic also does a good job of creating prepared relationships. Films and cartoons show people with funny-looking eyes (squinting, rolling, etc.) when they’re suspicious
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of our prior assumptions about correlation. If A is similar to B in some respect, we’re likely to see a relationship between them. The availability heuristic can also play a role. If the occasions when A is associated with B are more memorable than occasions when it isn’t, we’re
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Aristotle artifacts Arts and Entertainment (A&E) channel Associated Press assumptions attitudes; constructing; cultural differences in assumptions about; influences on; relativity of beliefs and Austria availability heuristic average deviation Azande people Bachmann, Michele Bangladesh Bargh, John Basseches, Michael Batson, Daniel Becker, Gary before/after design behavior; actor-observer differences in assessment of
Why Nudge?: The Politics of Libertarian Paternalism
by Cass R. Sunstein · 25 Mar 2014 · 168pp · 46,194 words
warnings, grabbing the attention of System 1, are a possibility here. PROBLEMS WITH PROBABILITY System 1 does not handle probability well. One problem is the availability heuristic. When people use that heuristic, they make judgments about probability by asking whether a recent event comes readily to mind.63 If an event is
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they are aware. While System 2 might be willing to do some calculations, System 1 works quickly, and it is pretty simple to use the availability heuristic. Instead of asking hard questions about statistics, System 1 asks easy questions about what comes to mind. “Availability bias” can lead to significant mistakes about
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if people underestimate the risks of distracted driving or of smoking. If the government corrects people’s unrealistic optimism, or counteracts their use of the availability heuristic in order to produce an accurate judgment about probability, it is respecting their ends. We might not want to characterize this action as paternalistic at
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merely judgments of fact.11 Moral heuristics are pervasive, and they can go wrong, no less than heuristics of other kinds. Consider an analogy: The availability heuristic helps people to come up with estimates of probability, and it generally works well. When we learn of an incident in which certain actions produced
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serious harm, we update our probability judgments. The updating is perfectly sensible. Use of the availability heuristic can be seen as a kind of rough-and-ready statistical analysis—and perhaps it is even better than that. The problem is that use
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of the availability heuristic can also go badly wrong, leading to wildly exaggerated fears (or to unhealthy complacency). The same problems arise for many moral heuristics, which generally work
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, 151–54; thick version, 127–28, 133–38; thin version, 124–26, 128–32; and welfare, 123–29, 134, 136–38. See also the individual availability heuristic and availability bias, 48–49, 63–64, 101, 135 Beckett, Samuel, 31, 172(n11) behavioral economics, 8–9, 19. See also behavioral market failures behavioral
Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals
by David Aronson · 1 Nov 2006
, a faulty application of the generally useful representativeness rule biases us toward the perception of order where it does not exist. Heuristic Bias and the Availability Heuristic To recap, heuristics help us make complex decisions rapidly in spite of the limitations of human intelligence, but they can cause those decisions to be
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biased. The notion of heuristic bias is easily explained by considering the availability heuristic. We rely on the availability heuristic to estimate the likelihood of future events. It is based on the reasonable notion that the more easily we can bring to mind
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are easily brought to mind are said to be cognitively available. For example, plane crashes are a class of events with high cognitive availability. The availability heuristic makes a certain amount of sense. The ability to recall a class of events is indeed related to how frequently they have occurred in the
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class, thunderstorms have been more frequent in the past than asteroid impacts, and they do indeed have a higher future likelihood. The problem with the availability heuristic is that there are factors that can enhance an event’s cognitive availability that have nothing to do with its historical frequency and are, therefore
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the likelihood of future plane crashes and are inordinately fearful of flying. Note the bias in the judgment is one of overestimating a probability. The availability heuristic never causes us to underestimate an event’s likelihood. The error is always one of overestimating the probability. The Representativeness Heuristic: Reasoning by Similarity The
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soundness and, 309–311 differing expected returns experiment, 307–309 equal merit experiment, 293–307 Assumed execution prices, 29–30 Asymmetric binary variables, 78–80 Availability heuristic, 87–88 Back testing, 15–16. See also Data mining; Data-mining bias computer-intensive methods applied to single rule, 241–243 data mining versus
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Hayes, T., 21 Head-and-shoulders pattern, objectification example, 151–161 Heiby, W.A., 403, 433 Herd behavior, 362–369 Heuristic bias, 41, 86–87 availability heuristic, 87–88 heuristic defined, 86 representativeness heuristic, 88–93 illusory trends and patterns and, 93–101 521 Hindsight bias, 50–58 Hong and Stein (HS
The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less
by Barry Schwartz · 1 Jan 2004 · 241pp · 75,516 words
to give undue weight to some types of information in contrast to others. They called it the availability heuristic. This needs a little explaining. A heuristic is a rule of thumb, a mental shortcut. The availability heuristic works like this: suppose someone asked you a silly question like “What’s more common in English
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there must be more words in English that start with t than have it as the third letter.” But your conclusion would be wrong. The availability heuristic says that we assume that the more available some piece of information is to memory, the more frequently we must have encountered it in the
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we retrieve information from memory, salience or vividness will influence the weight we give any particular piece of information. There are many examples of the availability heuristic in operation. When college students who are deciding what courses to take next semester are presented with summaries of course evaluations from several hundred students
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than those of their partner. Because our own actions are more available to us from memory, we assume they are more frequent. Now consider the availability heuristic in the context of advertising, whose main objective is to make products appear salient and vivid. Does a particular carmaker give safety a high priority
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Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases,” Science, 1974, 185, 1124–1131. There are many examples For a detailed discussion of many examples of human susceptibility to the availability heuristic, especially in social situations, see R. Nisbett and L. Ross, Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1980). How
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“attractiveness score,” attributional style automobiles autonomy choice as essential for limits to psychological well-being and psychology and ecology of social ties and value of availability heuristic B babies, of unmarried parents Berlin, Isaiah blame, for making bad choices Blue Cross Bowling Alone (Putnam) brain brand loyalty “branding,” Brickman, Philip bulimia Bush
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cosmetic surgery cost accounting counterfactuals definition of upward vs. downward Cullum, Leo “curse of discernment,” D death, most common causes of decision-making anchoring and availability heuristic and avoidance of by children emotional pressure and evaluating information and framing and gathering information for goals and maximizing and quality and prospect theory and
Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value (And How to Take Advantage of It)
by William Poundstone · 1 Jan 2010 · 519pp · 104,396 words
to rattle off words beginning with r; harder and slower to free-associate words with r in third place. This is an example of the availability heuristic, and here it leads us astray. Words with r in third place happen to be more common. But because words beginning with r are more
Rationality: What It Is, Why It Seems Scarce, Why It Matters
by Steven Pinker · 14 Oct 2021 · 533pp · 125,495 words
works. Instead, people judge the probability of events by the ease with which instances come into mind, a habit that Tversky and Kahneman called the availability heuristic.11 We use the ranking from our brain’s search engine—the images, anecdotes, and mental videos it coughs up—as our best guess of
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more accurate than their estimate for another conspicuous minority, Jews, where respondents are off by a factor of nine (18 versus 2 percent).15 The availability heuristic is a major driver of world events, often in irrational directions. Other than disease, the most lethal risk to life and limb is accidents, which
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a positive diagnosis. How common the cancer is, and how common a positive diagnosis is, never enter our minds. (Horses, zebras, who cares?) Like the availability heuristic from the preceding chapter, the representativeness heuristic is a rule of thumb the brain deploys in lieu of doing the math.6 Tversky and Kahneman
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hot hand fallacy, 131 hot hand fallacy fallacy, 131–32 hyperbolic discounting. See myopic temporal discounting illusory correlation, 245–46, 251–52, 321 imaginability. See availability heuristic intransitivity, 176, 185–88 irrelevant alternatives, sensitivity to, 177–78, 188–92, 350n8 loss aversion, 192–94 mañana fallacy, 101 Meadow’s fallacy (multiplying probabilities
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, 211 autism–vaccine claims, 287, 311 autocracy dissidents in, 299 imposition of beliefs, 43, 245–46 peace and, 266, 269, 270 rationality and, 245–46 availability heuristic COVID-19 and, 11 dangers of, 126–27 definition, 119 ignorance of progress and, 125–26, 324 journalism and, 120, 125–27 and killings, social
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–40 identity, beliefs and, 93 if-then statements. See conditional probability; conditionals Iliad, 302 illusory correlation, 245–46, 251–52, 321 imaginability, 25 See also availability heuristic immigration, misconception of rate, 120 impartiality as the core of morality, 68–69, 317, 340 as the core of rationality, 317 fairness and, 164 impeachment
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posterior, 151, 153 the present evidence and, 27–28 propensity and, 115 risk estimation, 118–27 subjectivist interpretation, 115, 116, 151, 194–96 See also availability heuristic; conditional probability; frequentist interpretation; single-event probabilities probability neglect, 11, 28, 321 processes, random, 112 profiling forbidding of, 62, 163–66 rare traits and false
Thinking, Fast and Slow
by Daniel Kahneman · 24 Oct 2011 · 654pp · 191,864 words
judged the size of categories by the ease with which instances came to mind. We called this reliance on the ease of memory search the availability heuristic. In one of our studies, we asked participants to answer a simple question about words in a typical English text: Consider the letter K. Is
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than the transgressions of lawyers and doctors. My intuitive impression could be due entirely to journalists’ choices of topics and to my reliance on the availability heuristic. Amos and I spent several years studying and documenting biases of intuitive thinking in various tasks—assigning probabilities to events, forecasting the future, assessing hypotheses
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in many fields, including medical diagnosis, legal judgment, intelligence analysis, philosophy, finance, statistics, and military strategy. For example, students of policy have noted that the availability heuristic helps explain why some issues are highly salient in the public’s mind while others are neglected. People tend to assess the relative importance of
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heuristics. At night I wrote Attention and Effort. It was a busy year. One of our projects was the study of what we called the availability heuristic. We thought of that heuristic when we asked ourselves what people actually do when they wish to estimate the frequency of a category, such as
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the class will be retrieved from memory, and if retrieval is easy and fluent, the category will be judged to be large. We defined the availability heuristic as the process of judging frequency by “the ease with which instances come to mind.” The statement seemed clear when we formulated it, but the
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idea of the relative frequency with which different countries have appeared in the news during the past year (Belgium, China, France, Congo, Nicaragua, Romania…). The availability heuristic, like other heuristics of judgment, substitutes one question for another: you wish to estimate the size se ost c d of a category or the
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that feeling even when each member of the team feels the same way. The Psychology of Availability A major advance in the understanding of the availability heuristic occurred in the early 1990s, when a group of German psychologists led by Norbert Schwarz raised an intriguing question: How will people’s impressions of
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instances of my assertiveness, then I can’t be very assertive. Note that this inference rests on a surprise—fluency being worse than expected. The availability heuristic that the subjects apply is better described as an “unexplained unavailability” heuristic. Schwarz and his colleagues reasoned that they could disrupt the heuristic by providing
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were asked for risky behaviors, others for protective behaviors). Students with no family history of heart disease were casual about the task and followed the availability heuristic. Students who found it difficult to find eight instances of risky behavior felt themselves relatively safe, and those who struggled to retrieve examples of safe
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standards) to be released within two or three days of birth, so your attention turned to the abnormal alternative. The unlikely event became focal. The availability heuristic is likely to be evoked: your judgment was probably determined by the number of scenarios of medical problems you produced and by the ease with
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that the associative connections between events are strengthened when the events frequently co-occur. As a result, man has at his disposal a procedure (the availability heuristic) for estimating the numerosity of a class, the likelihood of an event, or the frequency of co-occurrences, by the ease with which the relevant
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Gilovich, “The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic,” Psychological Science 17 (2006): 311–18. Norbert Schwarz et al., “Ease of Retrieval of Information: Another Look at the Availability Heuristic,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 61 (1991): 195–202. Elke U. Weber et al., “Asymmetric Discounting in Intertemporal Choice,” Psychological Science 18 (2007): 516
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; regulations on; in survival-mortality experiment; in ticket problem Frederick, Shane Freedman, David freedom Free to Choose (Friedman) frequency representation Frey, Bruno Friedman, Milton frowning; availability heuristic and; representativeness and gains Galinsky, Adam Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index Galton, Francis gambles; bundling of; certainty effect and; emotional framing in; loss aversion in
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Mao Zedong march of historyuote> Markowitz, Harry marriage; life satisfaction and Mathematical Psychology (Dawes, Tversky, and Coombs) matter, relation of mind to McFarland, Cathy media, availability heuristic and medical school admissions medical survey problem medicine; expertise in; malpractice litigation; overconfidence in; physicians; unique cases in; unusual treatments in Mednick, Sarnoff Meehl, Paul
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meetings memory, memories; associative, see associative memory; availability heuristic and, see availability; duration neglect in; experienced utility and; illusions of; and the remembering self; of vacations mental accounts mental effort, see effort mental energy
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; acquisition of; environment of; feedback and practice in; illusions of; in stock-picking Slovic, Paul Slovic, Roz slow thinking <="0> smiles, in face reading smiling; availability heuristic and Smith, Vernon socializing social science Soll, Jack somatic marker hypothesis soul Sources of Power (Klein) Soviet Union Spinoza, Baruch Sports Illustrated Stalin, Joseph Standard
Rationality: From AI to Zombies
by Eliezer Yudkowsky · 11 Mar 2015 · 1,737pp · 491,616 words
. Or, in the classic heuristic-and-bias, the machinery operates by an identifiable algorithm that does some useful work but also produces systematic errors: the availability heuristic is not itself a bias, but it gives rise to identifiable, compactly describable biases. Our brains are doing something wrong, and after a lot of
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curious. To this end let us strive to overcome whatever obstacles lie in our way, whether we call them “biases” or not. * 5 Availability The availability heuristic is judging the frequency or probability of an event by the ease with which examples of the event come to mind. A famous 1978 study
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evidence predicted, but not observed, is the mathematical mirror image of hindsight bias.) The brain has many mechanisms for generalizing from observation, not just the availability heuristic. You see three zebras, you form the category “zebra,” and this category embodies an automatic perceptual inference. Horse-shaped creatures with white and black stripes
Global Catastrophic Risks
by Nick Bostrom and Milan M. Cirkovic · 2 Jul 2008
of respondents guess that words beginning with 'R' are more frequent, when the reverse is the case (Tversky and Kahneman, 1973). Biases implicit in the availability heuristic affect estimates of risk. A pioneering study by Lichtenstein et al. ( 1 978) examined absolute and relative probability judgements of risk. People know in general
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, 467 attempted anthrax attack 466 interest in Ebola virus 467 nuclear ambitions 417, 419-20, 422 authoritarianism 507, 509 Autonomous Pathogen Detection System (APDS) 469 availability heuristic, biases 92-3 avoidable risk 176 Aztecs, effect of smallpox 296 Bacillus anthracis 456 bacteria, drug resistance 302-3 bacterial toxins 300 Bacteriological (Biological) and
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biases 10, 91-2, 1 1 3-15 affect heuristic 104-5 anchoring, adjustment and contamination effects 101-4 anthropomorphism 308-11, 312, 326 in availability heuristic 92-3 Black Swans 94-5 bystander apathy 109-1 1 cautions 1 1 1-12 confirmation bias 98-101 conjunction fallacy 95-8 hindsight
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school. The second school concentrates on “negative heuristics,” defined as heuristics that trip up people, violating basic laws of rationality and logic; e.g., the availability heuristic and the anchoring heuristic; see Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability,” Cognitive Psychology 5, no. 2 (September 1973
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