Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals
by David Aronson · 1 Nov 2006
, a faulty application of the generally useful representativeness rule biases us toward the perception of order where it does not exist. Heuristic Bias and the Availability Heuristic To recap, heuristics help us make complex decisions rapidly in spite of the limitations of human intelligence, but they can cause those decisions to be
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biased. The notion of heuristic bias is easily explained by considering the availability heuristic. We rely on the availability heuristic to estimate the likelihood of future events. It is based on the reasonable notion that the more easily we can bring to mind
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are easily brought to mind are said to be cognitively available. For example, plane crashes are a class of events with high cognitive availability. The availability heuristic makes a certain amount of sense. The ability to recall a class of events is indeed related to how frequently they have occurred in the
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class, thunderstorms have been more frequent in the past than asteroid impacts, and they do indeed have a higher future likelihood. The problem with the availability heuristic is that there are factors that can enhance an event’s cognitive availability that have nothing to do with its historical frequency and are, therefore
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the likelihood of future plane crashes and are inordinately fearful of flying. Note the bias in the judgment is one of overestimating a probability. The availability heuristic never causes us to underestimate an event’s likelihood. The error is always one of overestimating the probability. The Representativeness Heuristic: Reasoning by Similarity The
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soundness and, 309–311 differing expected returns experiment, 307–309 equal merit experiment, 293–307 Assumed execution prices, 29–30 Asymmetric binary variables, 78–80 Availability heuristic, 87–88 Back testing, 15–16. See also Data mining; Data-mining bias computer-intensive methods applied to single rule, 241–243 data mining versus
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Hayes, T., 21 Head-and-shoulders pattern, objectification example, 151–161 Heiby, W.A., 403, 433 Herd behavior, 362–369 Heuristic bias, 41, 86–87 availability heuristic, 87–88 heuristic defined, 86 representativeness heuristic, 88–93 illusory trends and patterns and, 93–101 521 Hindsight bias, 50–58 Hong and Stein (HS
Fancy Bear Goes Phishing: The Dark History of the Information Age, in Five Extraordinary Hacks
by Scott J. Shapiro · 523pp · 154,042 words
objects are, they often respond to a different, easier question. Instead of “How common is this?” they answer, “How memorable is this?” According to the Availability Heuristic, the more available an object is in memory, the more common it will be judged to be. Because we assume that memorability is correlated with
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greater causes of death than diabetes because car and plane crashes are covered by the news, while the more common diabetes deaths are not. The Availability Heuristic, therefore, biases our perception of frequency toward exceptional, especially vivid, events. Shark attacks are extremely rare. But because they are terrifying and sensational, they are
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its occurrence, the more available it is to memory, and hence the more common it is thought to be. Fancy Bear tried to trigger the Availability Heuristic by alleging that the sign-in attempt occurred in Ukraine. The choice of Ukraine was deliberate. In addition to the hazy stereotypes that stem from
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likelihood to the alleged attack originating in Ukraine. Of course, Ukraine was not the source of the Russian hacks; it was the target. But the Availability Heuristic works by association. Since Ukraine was associated with hacking, the heuristic lent credence to the claim that the hacking came from Ukraine. For similar reasons
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, phishing emails routinely refer to current events, like natural disasters and infectious diseases, when asking for donations. Because these events are vivid and sensational, the Availability Heuristic lends credibility to scams that mention them. The scams are believable because the events they mention are memorable. Closely related to the
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Availability Heuristic is the Affect Heuristic. The Affect Heuristic substitutes questions of affect, or emotion, for questions of risks and benefits. Instead of asking “How should I
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almost entirely on heuristics, which work through substitution. Instead of answering cognitively demanding answers to questions such as “How common is the letter K?,” the Availability Heuristic of System 1 substitutes easier-to-answer queries such as “How easy is it to think of words with the letter K?” and delivers its
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%3Dforum%2Fgmail. “word starts with a K”: Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability,” Cognitive Psychology 5 (1973): 211. Availability Heuristic: In another Kahneman and Tversky experiment, participants listened to lists of names containing either nineteen famous women and twenty less famous men or nineteen famous
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Donald G. MacGregor, “The Affect Heuristic,” European Journal of Operational Research 177 (2007): 1333–52. downplay its benefits: The Affect Heuristic works partially through the Availability Heuristic. The more you like something, the more likely its benefits will be available to you in memory. Conversely, the more available an event is in
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memory, the greater the affect experienced. For the relation between these two heuristics, see Thorsten Pachur et al., “How Do People Judge Risks: Availability Heuristic, Affect Heuristic, or Both?,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 18, no. 3 (2012): 314–30. an urn: Dale T. Miller, William Turnbull, and Cathy McFarland
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; software development for ARPANET artificial intelligence; Hollywood depiction of; Turing test on Artificial Intelligence Lab (at MIT) Assange, Julian assembly language authentication; see also passwords Availability Heuristics Ballmer, Steve Bennahum, David Biden, Joe binary language Bitcoin: as cybercrime payment medium; Fancy Bear use of Bitly black hat community Bluetooth technology Bontchev, Vesselin
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on resetting; side-channel attacks and; UNIX approach to; weak Patrick, Neal Patriot Act payment systems personal computer evolution Peterson, Elliott phishing: Affect Heuristic in; Availability Heuristic in; characteristics of emails in; definition and types of; Fancy Bear; Google accounts targeted in; Loss Aversion Heuristic in; misspellings and; Nigerian Prince; nudges and
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and; for World Wide Web early days; see also operating systems; self-replication programming languages protection rackets ProTraf Solutions proxies ProxyPipe psychology; Affect Heuristic in; Availability Heuristic in; cybersecurity threat relation to human; dual-process theories and; Fancy Bear exploitation of; of hackers; of helplessness to cybercrime; Kahneman and Tversky studies on
Thinking, Fast and Slow
by Daniel Kahneman · 24 Oct 2011 · 654pp · 191,864 words
judged the size of categories by the ease with which instances came to mind. We called this reliance on the ease of memory search the availability heuristic. In one of our studies, we asked participants to answer a simple question about words in a typical English text: Consider the letter K. Is
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than the transgressions of lawyers and doctors. My intuitive impression could be due entirely to journalists’ choices of topics and to my reliance on the availability heuristic. Amos and I spent several years studying and documenting biases of intuitive thinking in various tasks—assigning probabilities to events, forecasting the future, assessing hypotheses
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in many fields, including medical diagnosis, legal judgment, intelligence analysis, philosophy, finance, statistics, and military strategy. For example, students of policy have noted that the availability heuristic helps explain why some issues are highly salient in the public’s mind while others are neglected. People tend to assess the relative importance of
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heuristics. At night I wrote Attention and Effort. It was a busy year. One of our projects was the study of what we called the availability heuristic. We thought of that heuristic when we asked ourselves what people actually do when they wish to estimate the frequency of a category, such as
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the class will be retrieved from memory, and if retrieval is easy and fluent, the category will be judged to be large. We defined the availability heuristic as the process of judging frequency by “the ease with which instances come to mind.” The statement seemed clear when we formulated it, but the
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idea of the relative frequency with which different countries have appeared in the news during the past year (Belgium, China, France, Congo, Nicaragua, Romania…). The availability heuristic, like other heuristics of judgment, substitutes one question for another: you wish to estimate the size se ost c d of a category or the
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that feeling even when each member of the team feels the same way. The Psychology of Availability A major advance in the understanding of the availability heuristic occurred in the early 1990s, when a group of German psychologists led by Norbert Schwarz raised an intriguing question: How will people’s impressions of
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instances of my assertiveness, then I can’t be very assertive. Note that this inference rests on a surprise—fluency being worse than expected. The availability heuristic that the subjects apply is better described as an “unexplained unavailability” heuristic. Schwarz and his colleagues reasoned that they could disrupt the heuristic by providing
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were asked for risky behaviors, others for protective behaviors). Students with no family history of heart disease were casual about the task and followed the availability heuristic. Students who found it difficult to find eight instances of risky behavior felt themselves relatively safe, and those who struggled to retrieve examples of safe
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standards) to be released within two or three days of birth, so your attention turned to the abnormal alternative. The unlikely event became focal. The availability heuristic is likely to be evoked: your judgment was probably determined by the number of scenarios of medical problems you produced and by the ease with
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that the associative connections between events are strengthened when the events frequently co-occur. As a result, man has at his disposal a procedure (the availability heuristic) for estimating the numerosity of a class, the likelihood of an event, or the frequency of co-occurrences, by the ease with which the relevant
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Gilovich, “The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic,” Psychological Science 17 (2006): 311–18. Norbert Schwarz et al., “Ease of Retrieval of Information: Another Look at the Availability Heuristic,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 61 (1991): 195–202. Elke U. Weber et al., “Asymmetric Discounting in Intertemporal Choice,” Psychological Science 18 (2007): 516
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; regulations on; in survival-mortality experiment; in ticket problem Frederick, Shane Freedman, David freedom Free to Choose (Friedman) frequency representation Frey, Bruno Friedman, Milton frowning; availability heuristic and; representativeness and gains Galinsky, Adam Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index Galton, Francis gambles; bundling of; certainty effect and; emotional framing in; loss aversion in
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Mao Zedong march of historyuote> Markowitz, Harry marriage; life satisfaction and Mathematical Psychology (Dawes, Tversky, and Coombs) matter, relation of mind to McFarland, Cathy media, availability heuristic and medical school admissions medical survey problem medicine; expertise in; malpractice litigation; overconfidence in; physicians; unique cases in; unusual treatments in Mednick, Sarnoff Meehl, Paul
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meetings memory, memories; associative, see associative memory; availability heuristic and, see availability; duration neglect in; experienced utility and; illusions of; and the remembering self; of vacations mental accounts mental effort, see effort mental energy
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; acquisition of; environment of; feedback and practice in; illusions of; in stock-picking Slovic, Paul Slovic, Roz slow thinking <="0> smiles, in face reading smiling; availability heuristic and Smith, Vernon socializing social science Soll, Jack somatic marker hypothesis soul Sources of Power (Klein) Soviet Union Spinoza, Baruch Sports Illustrated Stalin, Joseph Standard
Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value (And How to Take Advantage of It)
by William Poundstone · 1 Jan 2010 · 519pp · 104,396 words
to rattle off words beginning with r; harder and slower to free-associate words with r in third place. This is an example of the availability heuristic, and here it leads us astray. Words with r in third place happen to be more common. But because words beginning with r are more
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't
by Nate Silver · 31 Aug 2012 · 829pp · 186,976 words
Arrhenius, Svante, 376 artificial intelligence, 263, 293 Asia, 210 asset-price bubble, 190 asymmetrical information, 35 Augustine, Saint, 112 Australia, 379 autism, 218, 218, 487 availability heuristic, 424 avian flu, see bird flu A/Victoria flu strain, 205–6, 208, 483 Babbage, Charles, 263, 283 Babyak, Michael, 167–68 baby boom, 31
Bulletproof Problem Solving
by Charles Conn and Robert McLean · 6 Mar 2019
a new kind of problem, we risk disastrously wrong solutions or endless work getting back on track. This kind of mistake is sometimes called an availability heuristic (you use the framework you happen to have handy, not the right one) or substitution bias (you substitute a simple model you know rather than
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AT&T, lawsuit, 171 Audiences, interaction, 190–191 Automation, role, 204 Avahan HIV project (India), problem aperture, widening, 41–42 framing, 42e Availability bias, 101 Availability heuristic, 100 B Back of the envelope calculation, 169 Baer, Tobias, xxii Baghai, Mehrdad, 169, 203, 220 Balancing, 71 moral balancing, 71 Baur, Louise, 242 Bay
Rationality: From AI to Zombies
by Eliezer Yudkowsky · 11 Mar 2015 · 1,737pp · 491,616 words
. Or, in the classic heuristic-and-bias, the machinery operates by an identifiable algorithm that does some useful work but also produces systematic errors: the availability heuristic is not itself a bias, but it gives rise to identifiable, compactly describable biases. Our brains are doing something wrong, and after a lot of
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curious. To this end let us strive to overcome whatever obstacles lie in our way, whether we call them “biases” or not. * 5 Availability The availability heuristic is judging the frequency or probability of an event by the ease with which examples of the event come to mind. A famous 1978 study
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evidence predicted, but not observed, is the mathematical mirror image of hindsight bias.) The brain has many mechanisms for generalizing from observation, not just the availability heuristic. You see three zebras, you form the category “zebra,” and this category embodies an automatic perceptual inference. Horse-shaped creatures with white and black stripes
How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors Behind Every Successful Project, From Home Renovations to Space Exploration
by Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner · 16 Feb 2023 · 353pp · 97,029 words
school. The second school concentrates on “negative heuristics,” defined as heuristics that trip up people, violating basic laws of rationality and logic; e.g., the availability heuristic and the anchoring heuristic; see Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability,” Cognitive Psychology 5, no. 2 (September 1973
The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less
by Barry Schwartz · 1 Jan 2004 · 241pp · 75,516 words
to give undue weight to some types of information in contrast to others. They called it the availability heuristic. This needs a little explaining. A heuristic is a rule of thumb, a mental shortcut. The availability heuristic works like this: suppose someone asked you a silly question like “What’s more common in English
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there must be more words in English that start with t than have it as the third letter.” But your conclusion would be wrong. The availability heuristic says that we assume that the more available some piece of information is to memory, the more frequently we must have encountered it in the
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we retrieve information from memory, salience or vividness will influence the weight we give any particular piece of information. There are many examples of the availability heuristic in operation. When college students who are deciding what courses to take next semester are presented with summaries of course evaluations from several hundred students
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than those of their partner. Because our own actions are more available to us from memory, we assume they are more frequent. Now consider the availability heuristic in the context of advertising, whose main objective is to make products appear salient and vivid. Does a particular carmaker give safety a high priority
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Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases,” Science, 1974, 185, 1124–1131. There are many examples For a detailed discussion of many examples of human susceptibility to the availability heuristic, especially in social situations, see R. Nisbett and L. Ross, Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1980). How
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“attractiveness score,” attributional style automobiles autonomy choice as essential for limits to psychological well-being and psychology and ecology of social ties and value of availability heuristic B babies, of unmarried parents Berlin, Isaiah blame, for making bad choices Blue Cross Bowling Alone (Putnam) brain brand loyalty “branding,” Brickman, Philip bulimia Bush
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cosmetic surgery cost accounting counterfactuals definition of upward vs. downward Cullum, Leo “curse of discernment,” D death, most common causes of decision-making anchoring and availability heuristic and avoidance of by children emotional pressure and evaluating information and framing and gathering information for goals and maximizing and quality and prospect theory and
Why Nudge?: The Politics of Libertarian Paternalism
by Cass R. Sunstein · 25 Mar 2014 · 168pp · 46,194 words
warnings, grabbing the attention of System 1, are a possibility here. PROBLEMS WITH PROBABILITY System 1 does not handle probability well. One problem is the availability heuristic. When people use that heuristic, they make judgments about probability by asking whether a recent event comes readily to mind.63 If an event is
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they are aware. While System 2 might be willing to do some calculations, System 1 works quickly, and it is pretty simple to use the availability heuristic. Instead of asking hard questions about statistics, System 1 asks easy questions about what comes to mind. “Availability bias” can lead to significant mistakes about
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if people underestimate the risks of distracted driving or of smoking. If the government corrects people’s unrealistic optimism, or counteracts their use of the availability heuristic in order to produce an accurate judgment about probability, it is respecting their ends. We might not want to characterize this action as paternalistic at
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merely judgments of fact.11 Moral heuristics are pervasive, and they can go wrong, no less than heuristics of other kinds. Consider an analogy: The availability heuristic helps people to come up with estimates of probability, and it generally works well. When we learn of an incident in which certain actions produced
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serious harm, we update our probability judgments. The updating is perfectly sensible. Use of the availability heuristic can be seen as a kind of rough-and-ready statistical analysis—and perhaps it is even better than that. The problem is that use
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of the availability heuristic can also go badly wrong, leading to wildly exaggerated fears (or to unhealthy complacency). The same problems arise for many moral heuristics, which generally work
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, 151–54; thick version, 127–28, 133–38; thin version, 124–26, 128–32; and welfare, 123–29, 134, 136–38. See also the individual availability heuristic and availability bias, 48–49, 63–64, 101, 135 Beckett, Samuel, 31, 172(n11) behavioral economics, 8–9, 19. See also behavioral market failures behavioral
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