business cycle

Globalists

by Quinn Slobodian  · 16 Mar 2018  · 451pp  · 142,662 words

.9 After the mid-1920s, Mises was joined by Hayek again, along with another protégé, Gottfried Haberler, for whom Mises secured positions in the Austrian Business Cycle Research Institute, which operated in the same building. Mises’s office on the second floor, facing the Ringstrasse, was also the meeting place for his

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world economies or seeking to understand their cyclical rise and fall. In 1927 Mises and Hayek expanded their cooperation with the ICC to found a Business Cycle Research Institute in the offices on the Stubenring in Vienna. This job led Hayek to the center of global economic research in Geneva. The League

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level but at the scale of the globe. Neoliberalism was born out of projects of world observation, global statistics gathering, and international investigations of the business cycle. Why is this fact so often missed by historians? Part of the reason is that the ultimate conclusion of neoliberals about the Great Depression and

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framework of tradition and the rule of law, all of which they perceived to be disintegrating in the 1930s. The road away from statistics and business cycle research led neoliberals to, as they put it, think in orders. From that point onward they sharpened their focus on designing institutions that would best

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. Condliffe.15 By November, the globalized spiral reappeared in Vienna.16 The Viennese publication that featured the spiral was the monthly report of the Austrian Business Cycle Research Institute founded by Mises and Hayek in late 1926 and housed in the Vienna Chamber of Commerce building. Morgenstern took over its direction from

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Hayek in 1931. Understanding the business cycle was the central intellectual challenge of the 1920s and 1930s for economists. By the early 1930s, Geneva was the hub of such efforts, with spokes

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1924 for his pioneering development of electrocardiography, creating a means for measuring the pulse of the human heart on a line chart over time.27 Business cycle research—and the visual technique of the business barometer—helped place the economist alongside the medical doctor as the master of an esoteric branch of

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met Charles Bullock, the director of the Harvard Economic Service, who recalled being favorably impressed by the young Hayek.31 Hayek brought the idea of business cycle research back to Austria with him.32 In his words, he imported “from America a new idea of great predictions.”33 He wrote to Mitchell

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doctor, on this view, the economist was entitled privileged access to the internal workings of private business. The first challenge to trying to understand the business cycle was getting access to the data. Mises and Hayek argued that it was necessary “to overcome the life-threatening secretiveness of Austrian enterprises and organizations

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opening their account books beyond the firm represented a revision of the classical liberal vision. The privacy of the businessman was no longer sacred. In business cycle research, social science was applied to the market, but not—as had been the case of the movements of “social reform” and progressivism—in order

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the archetypical case of this form of sozial policy, and its lead was followed from Japan to Ireland to the United States. Much of the business cycle research of the 1920s was a different beast. Here economic knowledge was more commonly being developed to maximize rather than moderate the effectiveness and scope

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easily grasped.38 Mises and Hayek described the most important thing as the “pedagogical value of constant reference to the cyclical nature of business cycle movements offered by regular business cycle reporting. It allows for a planned distribution of investments over a long period of time as well as for the selection of the

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the businessperson and the statesperson needed to be trained to understand the cycle. The efforts of Mises and Hayek succeeded in late 1926. The Austrian Business Cycle Research Institute was officially constituted on December 15, 1926. Hayek became its director in January 1927, with a secretary as the only other staff member

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: politics subordinated to the rise and fall of an abstracted market climate. The national frame of the business barometers made sense for the homeland of business cycle research—the United States—which had the largest domestic economy in the world. But even there the importance of global events led the Harvard Economic

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nation-state frame did not transfer well to smaller countries. Austria and other postcolonial successor states in Central Europe were much more dependent on the business cycles of neighboring countries than larger countries or empires were. The precariousness of the position of the dissolved Habsburg Empire meant that foreign economies mattered more

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about how one could practically begin to create a synthetic statistical portrait of the region. In March 1928 he organized a conference of Central European business cycle research institutes, which included representatives from Hungary, Poland, and Czechoslovakia, as well as Adolph Löwe from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, and Paul

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million to research in social sciences, a colossal investment in the power of knowledge to solve social and economic problems.52 Vienna was the first business cycle institute in Europe to receive Rockefeller funding, with a grant of $20,000 in 1931 that was a windfall in economically depressed Austria.53 Hayek

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region of formally independent states being examined as an interdependent economic unit. Hayek’s collaborations were an important step in beginning to think about the business cycle and the business barometer beyond the scale of the individual nation. The predicament of post-imperial Austria directed attention outward to neighboring nations and the

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was the pulse of the region and the pulse of the world. THE PULSE OF THE WORLD F. A. Hayek’s work at the Austrian Business Cycle Research Institute brought him into contact with the center of world economic research in Geneva. Alexander Loveday supported Hayek’s efforts to create a network

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of Central European business cycle research in 1928.55 In early 1931 Loveday invited Hayek to Geneva as the representative of the Vienna Institute for the first international gathering of

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more distant horizon.”58 The convener of the meeting was the Swedish economist Bertil Ohlin. He had gathered reports from the invited economists about the business cycles in their respective countries. Such international coordination was felt to be necessary because “whereas a number of pre-war depressions were confined to a relatively

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same as the Chilean-German statistician Ernst Wagemann had proposed in 1928: to inquire if there was “a world-economic, as well as national-economic, business cycle.”60 The conclusion of the gathered economists in 1931 was unanimous: even if solutions were still elusive, they should be sought at the scale of

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escape the push and pull of global economic forces.66 In 1932 Arthur Salter referred to the “collective laboratory work” on the problem of the business cycle, analogizing economists to natural scientists working on a problem that would have a definitive solution.67 Beginning the same year, Condliffe oversaw the publication of

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and Geneva deepened when Haberler was appointed in May 1934, on Hayek’s recommendation, to write the follow-up volume to Ohlin on theories of business cycles and the Depression.69 As we saw in Chapter 1, Haberler used the model of the spaceless world to build his analysis, equating tariffs, distances

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optimal distribution of the world’s resources. Even if he was unsuccessful in proving it scientifically, he saw it as a matter of fact that business cycles could be internationalized. “For a hundred years or more,” he wrote, “the economic connections between most countries in the world, industrialized countries as well as

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become so intimate and international trade so important for the various national economic systems that a closer connection between the ups and downs of the business cycle in different countries is to be expected.” The “bacillus of boom or depression,” he wrote, travels freely “from country to country.”70 Even if causality

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The Haberler method was about expanding the ambit of economists in public life and extending economists’ reach into the domain of government. Just like the business cycle research institutes sought to breach the walls around corporate secrecy, the activity of international institutions like the League sought to draw information out of national

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for Vienna to discuss coordination among research institutes.79 Until Ohlin and Haberler’s reports on the Great Depression, most of the research on the business cycle to date had been basically national. The question the Rockefeller Foundation had for the economists in Annecy was fundamental: Did the global economy exist? As

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was Röpke’s International Economic Disintegration project that came out of Geneva and Annecy, funded by Rockefeller, and closely connected to the League of Nations, business cycle research, and the Vienna cohort of Haberler, Hayek, and Mises. The second was the International Studies Conference (ISC), the first international cooperative institution of the

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above.122 In what could be read as an implicit critique of both socialist planning and attempts to perceive the entirety of economic life through business cycle research, Lippmann wrote that “to the data of social experience the mind is like a lantern which casts dim circles of light spasmodically upon somewhat

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things that they knew (or claimed to know) and the things that average economic actors in the world actually knew. His work at the Austrian Business Cycle Research Institute had been premised on the notion of economic pedagogy—the idea that the gap between the market, the economist, and the economic actor

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140 If humans acted in unconscious response to market stimuli, then it followed that public enlightenment was no longer the role of the economist. The business cycle chart was truly the pulse of the nation in the sense of being a record of the autonomous nervous system rather than the thinking mind

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the declension of the social sciences into “a fact-recording machinery” and called for more synthetic collaborative work—less like the statistics-gathering of the business cycle research institutes and more like the international relations investigations of the ISC and the social philosophy of Lippmann.149 Perhaps the most strident attack on

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numbers but ended the decade with an antipathy toward them. Even the Austrians with their preexisting skepticism toward descriptive statistics had been willing to promote business cycle research with a public pedagogical function. Yet by the end of the decade, Hayek was speaking of the necessity of not-knowing for economic relations

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see it as one of the chief causes of “international economic disintegration.”161 Röpke said at the Lippmann Colloquium: “The greatest danger is the new business cycle policy: the policy of economic autonomy, the policy of economic nationalism, combined with the planned economy and autarchy.”162 Seeing economics through statistics and cycles

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in den 1920er und 1930er Jahren und der Völkerbund,” Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte 57, no. 2 (2016): 545–588. 16. “Österreich,” 183. 17. Wesley Clair Mitchell, Business Cycles (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1913), vii. 18. Mary S. Morgan, The History of Econometric Ideas (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990), 64. 19. Walter

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Ausland,” WWA, 2627 / 10 / 262701, 1926 folder. 39. “Entstehungsgründe des Instituts: Praktischer Vorteil,” WWA, 2627 / 10 / 262701, 1926 folder. 40. Hansjörg Klausinger, “Hayek on Practical Business Cycle Research: A Note,” in Austrian Economics in Transition: From Carl Menger to Friedrich Hayek, ed. Harald Hagemann, Yukihiro Ikeda, and Tamotsu Nishizawa (New York: Palgrave

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, doss. 23630, doc. 24135. 57. Loveday to Morgenstern, March 11, 1931, LON, R2889, doss. 23630, doc. 24135. 58. Alexander Loveday, “The League of Nations and Business Cycle Research,” Review of Economics and Statistics 18, no. 4 (1936): 157. 59. Appendix, League of Nations Official Journal 12, no. 12 (December 1931): 2403. 60

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. 73. Ibid., 63. 74. Clavin, Securing the World Economy, 205. 75. Karl Pribram, “How to Ascertain the Definition of Some Notions Which Are Fundamental to Business Cycle Analysis?,” Revue de l’Institut International de Statistique / Review of the International Statistical Institute 4, no. 2 (1936): 215. 76. Haberler to Loveday, August 22

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and Total War (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1944), 238. 132. Hansjörg Klausinger, introduction to The Collected Works of F. A. Hayek, vol. 7: Business Cycles, Part I, ed. Hansjörg Klausinger (London: Routledge, 2009), 7. 133. Ibid. 134. F. A. Hayek, “Economics and Knowledge,” Economica 4, no. 13 (1937): 33–54

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Atlantic Community, 156, 184 Attlee, Clement, 139 Augustine, Saint, 268 Austerity, 25 Austria, 26, 42, 51, 106; and European integration, 189; First Republic, 31 Austrian Business Cycle Research Institute, 31, 59, 66, 82–83 Austrian economics, 6, 91 Austro-Hungarian Empire. See Habsburg Empire Authoritarianism, 15, 116, 277, 296 Autocracy, 45 Babson

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Africa, 150, 154, 168, 174, 325n49 Bulgaria, 69, 109 Bullock, Charles J., 64, 75 Burma, 201, 339n111 Burnham, James, 179 Bush, George H. W., 261 Business cycle research, 17–18, 58–76, 79, 89 Businesspeople. See Chambers of commerce; National Association of Manufacturers Butler, Nicholas Murray, 39 California, 237 Cameroon, 215 Campos

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Chambers of commerce, 163; Boston, 75; Dortmund, 206. Peruvian, 165; Vienna, 21, 30, 31, 38, 40–48, 59. See also International Chamber of Commerce Charts, business cycle, 83. See also Models Chicago, 11, 24; Chicago School, 7–9, 229, 269; University of Chicago, 166, 204 Chile, 70, 126, 339n11; neoliberals and, 22

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, 251, 275; of the world economy, 22, 194, 275 Guatemala, 139, 193 Gueye, Djeme Momar, 197 Haberler, Gottfried, 8, 99, 147, 164, 190, 207; and business cycle research, 17, 21, 31, 49, 71; on European integration, 183, 194, 216; on floating exchange rates, 241; Haberler Method, 72–73, 75, 77, 127; Haberler

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Eugène, 32, 47 Havana, 126, 130; ITO Charter, 128–130, 132–134, 318n64 Hayek, F. A., 6–8, 20, 29, 35, 74, 118, 128; and business cycle research, 17, 21, 31. 57, 59, 62–66; Capitalism and the Historians, 172; on Cold War, 264; on constitutional design, 14, 204–206, 210, 212

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S., 20, 144 Mind, 228–230, 238, 260 Minorities, protection of, 112, 174 Mises, Ludwig von, 8, 52, 94, 99, 129, 132, 150, 285; and business cycle research, 17, 21, 49, 57, 59, 64–66, 73, 79; and chamber of commerce, 21, 31–41, 87, 128; critique of mathematics and statistics, 82

Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider’s View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead

by Kenneth Rogoff  · 27 Feb 2025  · 330pp  · 127,791 words

.19 The paper I prepared for the Board argued that by several of the criteria the Commission had stressed—for example, the co-movement of business cycles—a North American currency shared between the United States, Canada, and Mexico (which I christened the “NACho”) would make just as much sense as the

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investment. The exchange rate is only one of the factors that drive the current account deficit; other factors include productivity, interest rates, savings preferences, and business cycles.10 China’s citizens and corporations had (and still have) a very high propensity to save compared with Americans. Between 2001 and 2008, China’s

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exchange rate has long been manifestly in China’s interests, if only because, as we have noted, China is a large country that typically faces business cycles that are very distinct from those of the United States. Not everyone has always agreed that exchange rates between the major currencies (which nowadays would

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stability, but at the cost of generating much larger crises when they do come. Moreover, without the ability to engage in countercyclical Keynesian monetary policy, business cycles could be far more severe. These kinds of concerns are not very popular in certain quarters of the crypto community, as I know well from

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change in views among academic economists on the role of fiscal policy. A poll of American Economic Association members posed the proposition “Management of the business cycle should be left to the Federal Reserve; activist fiscal policies should be avoided.” In 2000, 72 percent either agreed or agreed with proviso and 28

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that politicians might want to raise spending before elections traces back to classic articles by William Nordhaus and Edward Tufte. William D. Nordhaus, “The Political Business Cycle,” Review of Economic Studies 42, no. 2 (April 1975): 169–190; Edward Tufte, Political Control of the Economy (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1978

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. 1 (January 1988): 1–16. Note the difference between the modern formulation “political budget cycles” and Nordhaus’s and Tufte’s original thesis of “political business cycles.” There is very strong cross-country evidence on the former—that governments spend excessively on visible projects before elections—but the evidence on there being

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a political business cycle is much weaker. 6. Min Shi and Jakob Svensson, “Political Budget Cycles: Do They Differ Across Countries and Why?,” Journal of Public Economics 90, nos

On Bicycles: A 200-Year History of Cycling in New York City

by Evan Friss  · 6 May 2019  · 314pp  · 85,637 words

in Los Angeles” (PhD diss., University of California, Irvine, 2013); Adonia E. Lugo, Bicycle/Race: Transportation, Culture, & Resistance (Portland, OR: Microcosm Publishing); John G. Stehlin, “Business Cycles: Race, Gentrification, and the Making of Bicycle Space in the San Francisco Bay Area” (PhD diss., University of California, Berkeley, 2015).   66.  Lawrence Solomon, “Ban

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), 210, 324; Tuckel and Milczarski, “Bike Lanes + Bike Share Program = Bike Safety.” For a smart take on the relationship between cycling and gentrification see Stehlin, “Business Cycles: Race, Gentrification, and the Making of Bicycle Space in the San Francisco Bay Area.”   67.  Michael Crowley, “Honk, Honk, Aaah,” New York, March 17, 2009

Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk

by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz  · 8 Jul 2024  · 259pp  · 89,637 words

a tool for thinking about the risk profile. 4. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz, “What Penicillin, Heart Disease, and Cancer Tell Us about the Business Cycle and Recession Risk,” Sanford C. Bernstein, August 3, 2018. Reprinted in An Economic History of Now, November 2018. 5. Based on GDP by Industry accounts

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by 9% overall from 2019 to 2022. Elise Gould and Katherine deCourcy, “Low-Wage Workers Have Seen Historically Fast Real Wage Growth in the Pandemic Business Cycle,” Economic Policy Institute, March 23, 2023, https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2022/. 15. Larry Summers, “Secular Stagnation or Secular Stagflation,” Speech at the

Stocks for the Long Run, 4th Edition: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long Term Investment Strategies

by Jeremy J. Siegel  · 18 Dec 2007

Interest Costs 203 Capital Gains Taxes 204 Conclusion 205 Chapter 12 Stocks and the Business Cycle 207 Who Calls the Business Cycle? 208 Stock Returns around Business Cycle Turning Points 211 Gains through Timing the Business Cycle 214 How Hard Is It to Predict the Business Cycle? 216 Conclusion 219 CONTENTS CONTENTS xi Chapter 13 When World Events Impact Financial

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quickly crossed the Atlantic and were the subject of much discussion in Great Britain. John Maynard Keynes, the great British economist and originator of the business cycle theory that became the accepted paradigm for future generations, reviewed Smith’s book with much excitement. Keynes stated: The results are striking. Mr. Smith finds

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Shares versus Bonds as Permanent Investments,” The Nation & The Athenaeum, May 2, 1925, p. 157. 12 Quoted by Edgar Lawrence Smith in Common Stocks and Business Cycles, New York: William-Frederick Press, 1959, p. 20. 13 Edgar Lawrence Smith, “Market Value of Industrial Equities,” Review of Economic Statistics, vol. 9 (January 1927

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to take some average of past earnings to smooth out temporary increases and decreases in earnings that may be due to such factors as the business cycle. The earnings yield based on a five-year average of past earnings against the next five years of real returns is plotted in Figure 7

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Investment Management, The FAJ 60th Anniversary Anthology, Charlottesville, Va.: CFA Institute, 2005, pp. 202–217. 18 James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson, “Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2002, pp. 159–218. 17 132 PART 2 Valuation, Style Investing, and Global Markets FIGURE 8–2 Monthly Percentage

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2 percent risk premium, implying a P-E ratio of 20. Therefore, if inflation stays low, the tax policy remains favorable for equities, and the business cycle remains muted, one can justify price-to-earnings ratios in the low 20s for the equity market. THE AGE WAVE Inflation, tax policy, macroeconomic stability

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, value stocks were often called cyclical stocks because low-P-E stocks were often found in those industries whose profits were closely tied to the business cycle. With the growth of style investing, equity managers that specialized in these stocks were uncomfortable with the “cyclical” moniker and greatly preferred the term “value

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such industries as oil, motor, finance, and utilities where investors have low expectations of future growth or believe that profits are strongly tied to the business cycle, while growth stocks are generally found in such industries as high technology, brand-name consumer products, and healthcare where investors expect profits either to grow

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quickly or to be more resistant to the business cycle. Of the 10 largest U.S.-based corporations by market value at the end of 2006, Exxon Mobil, Citigroup, and Bank of America had a

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entitled “Good Beta, Bad Beta,” John Campbell separates the beta related to interest rate fluctuations (which he called “good beta”) from the beta related to business cycles (which he called “bad beta”)27 based on historical evidence. But recent data are not supportive of this theory as growth stocks rose from 1997

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even after the tech bubble popped, sector correlations were lower than before. One reason for the decreased correlation between sectors is the moderation of the business cycle, which means that shifts in sector demands, rather than changes in the overall economy, become the primary sources of changes in firm profitability. What does

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market as they had in the past. STOCKS AS HEDGES AGAINST INFLATION Although the central bank has the power to moderate (but not eliminate) the business cycle, its policy has the greatest influence on inflation. As noted above, the inflation of the 1970s was due to the overexpansion of the money supply

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inflation again rears its head, investors will do much better in stocks than in bonds. This page intentionally left blank 12 CHAPTER STOCKS AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE The stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions! PA U L S A M U E L S O N , 1

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do well enough to support these high stock prices. This chapter is an adaptation of my paper “Does It Pay Stock Investors to Forecast the Business Cycle?” in Journal of Portfolio Management, vol. 18 (Fall 1991), pp. 27–34. The material benefited significantly from discussions with Professor Paul Samuelson. 1 “Science and

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words, cited at the beginning of this chapter, still remains true more than 40 years after they were first uttered. But do not dismiss the business cycle too quickly when examining your portfolio. The stock market still responds quite powerfully to changes in economic activity. The reaction of the S&P 500

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Index to the business cycle is displayed in Figure 12-1. Although there were many “false alarms” when a substantial market decline was not followed by a recession, stocks almost

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always fell prior to a recession and rallied rigorously at signs of an impending recovery. If you can predict the business cycle, you can beat the buy-and-hold strategy that has been advocated throughout this book. But this is no easy task. To make money by

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predicting the business cycle, one must be able to identify peaks and troughs of economic activity before they actually occur, a skill very few if any economists possess. Yet

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business cycle forecasting is a popular Wall Street endeavor not because it is successful—most of the time it is not—but because the potential gains are

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so large. WHO CALLS THE BUSINESS CYCLE? It is surprising to many that the dating of business cycles is not determined by any of the myriad government agencies that collect data on CHAPTER 12 Stocks and the

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. Instead, the task falls to the National Bureau of Economic Research (the NBER), a private research organization founded in 1920 for the purpose of documenting business cycles and developing a series of national income accounts. In the early years of its existence, the bureau’s staff compiled comprehensive chronological records of the

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, or contractions, and revivals that merge into the expansion phase of the next cycle; this sequence of changes is recurrent but not periodic; in duration business cycles vary from more than one year to ten or twelve years and they are not divisible into shorter cycles of similar character.3 It is

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the turning points in the economy: employment, industrial production, real personal income, and real manufacturing and trade sales. The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research confirms the business cycle dates. This committee consists of academic economists who are associated with the bureau and who meet to examine economic data

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period, the economy has been in a recession less than one-seventh of the time, far less than the prewar average. The dating of the business cycle is of great importance. The designation that the economy is in a recession or an expansion has political as well as economic implications. For example

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. 444. The data on U.S. recessions are taken from the NBER’s Web site (www.nber.org), which lists business cycles from 1854 onward. 4 CHAPTER 12 Stocks and the Business Cycle 211 cession a month earlier. Similarly the 2001 recession began in March when technology spending dropped sharply and well before the

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9/11 terrorist attacks. The Business Cycle Dating Committee is in no rush to call the turning points in the cycle. Never has a call been reversed because of new or revised

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—and the NBER wants to keep it that way. As Robert E. Hall, current chair of the seven-member Business Cycle Dating Committee indicated, “The NBER has not made an announcement on a business cycle peak or trough until there was almost no doubt that the data would not be revised in light of

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. 1. 212 PART 3 How the Economic Environment Impacts Stocks TABLE 12–1 Recessions and Stock Returns Recession Peak of Stock Index (1) Peak of Business Cycle (2) Lead Time Between Peaks (3) Decline in Stock Index from (1) to (2) (4) Maximum 12 Month Decline in Stock Index (6) 1948-1949

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crash and explain why it did not lead to an economic downturn. The trough in the stock return index and the trough in the NBER business cycle are compared in Table 12-3. The average lead time between a market upturn and an economic recovery has been 4.8 months, and in

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Recession 1948-1949 1953-1954 1957-1958 1960-1961 1970 1973-1975 1980 1981-1982 1990-1991 2001 Trough of Stock Index (1) Trough of Business Cycle (2) May 1949 Oct 1949 Aug 1953 May 1954 Dec 1957 April 1958 Oct 1960 Feb 1961 Jun 1970 Nov 1970 Sep 1974 Mar 1975

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. The maximum excess return of 4.8 percent per year is obtained by investing in bills four months before the business cycle peaks and in stocks four months before the business cycle troughs. The strategy of switching between bills and stocks gains almost 30 basis points (30⁄100 of a 7 The returns of

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the same level of market risk as the buy-and-hold strategy. TABLE 12–4 Switching Returns (Percent) Minus Buy-and-Hold Returns (Percent) around Business Cycle Turning Points, 1802 through December 2006 Switching from Bills to Stocks before Trough Switching from Stocks to Bills before Peaks 4 month 3 month 2

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your wealth over the same time period compared to a buyand-hold strategy. HOW HARD IS IT TO PREDICT THE BUSINESS CYCLE? Billions of dollars of resources are spent trying to forecast the business cycle. The previous section showed that it is not surprising that Wall Street economists desperately try to predict the next

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recession or upturn since doing so dramatically increases returns. But the record of predicting exact business cycle turning points is extremely poor. Stephen McNees, vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, has done extensive research into the accuracy of economic

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severe 1973–1975 and 1981–1982 recessions, much smaller in the 1980 and 1990 recessions, and generally quite minimal apart from business cycle turning points.”8 But it is precisely these business cycle turning points that turn a forecaster into a successful market timer. The 1974 to 1975 recession was particularly tough for economists

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the 8 Stephen K. McNees, “How Large Are Economic Forecast Errors?” New England Economic Review, July/August 1992, p. 33. CHAPTER 12 Stocks and the Business Cycle 217 next recession, which didn’t strike until 1980 while most economists thought it had begun early in 1979. From 1976 to 1995, Robert J

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had already started—forecasting negative GNP growth in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 1979. However, the NBER declared that the peak of the business cycle did not occur until January 1980 and that the economy expanded throughout 1979. By the middle of the next year, forecasters were convinced that a

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that a recession was imminent turned into the belief that prosperity was here to stay. The continuing expansion fostered a growing conviction that perhaps the business cycle had been conquered—by either government policy or the “recessionproof” nature of our service-oriented economy. Ed Yardeni, senior economist at Prudential-Bache Securities, wrote

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the postwar era, Leonard Silk, senior economics editor of the New York Times stated in May 1990 in an article entitled “Is There Really a Business Cycle?”: Most economists foresee no recession in 1990 or 1991, and 1992 will be another presidential year, when the odds tip strongly against recession. Japan, West

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. Which effect is stronger—the change in the interest rate or the change in corporate profits—depends often on where the economy is in the business cycle. Recent analysis shows that in a recession, a strongerthan-expected economic report increases stock prices since the implications for corporate profits are considered more important

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than the change in interest rates at this stage in the business cycle.2 Inversely, a weaker-than-expected report depresses stock prices. During economic expansions, and particularly toward the end of an expansion, the interest rate effect

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of job seekers into an improved labor market. For these reasons, economists and forecasters have downplayed the importance of the unemployment rate in forecasting the business cycle. But this does not diminish the political impact of this number. The unemployment rate is an easily understood figure that represents the fraction of the

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16-4, volatility in 2005 and 2006 was among the lowest in history. There are goods reasons for this: (1) lower economic volatility as the business cycle is muted, (2) the globalization of financial markets that allows investors to diversify risks, and (3) the increased liquidity of markets that allows capital to

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, 359q Bull markets: beginning of, 85–86 from 1982-1999, 14 Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 241 Burns, Arthur, 210n Bush, George W., 69, 75 Business cycle, 207–219, 285 dating of, 208–211 definition of, 209–210 prediction of, 216–219 timing of, gains through, 214–216, 215i turning points of

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McKinley, William, 226–227 McNees, Stephen K., 216 McQuaid, Charles, 346 Mean aversion, 30 Mean reversion, of equity returns, 13 Mean-variance efficiency, 354 Measuring Business Cycles (Mitchell), 209 Melamed, Leo, 165, 251q, 274 Melville, Frank, 61 Melville Shoe Corp., 59i, 61 MENA (Middle East and North Africa), 179 Mental accounting, 329

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Purchasing Managers (NAPM), 243 National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (see Nasdaq entries) National Biscuit Co., 62 National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), 209 Business Cycle Dating Committee of, 210, 211 National Can, 60i, 64 National Dairy, 60i National Distillers and Chemical, 48 National income, ratio of corporate profits to, market

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), 252 Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index, 37, 40, 47, 51–64, 342 outperformance of original S&P 500 firms and, 63–64 reaction to business cycle, 208, 20i sector allocation and, 175i sector rotation in, 52–58, 53i, 55i, 56i top-performing firms in, 58–63, 59i, 60i Standard & Poor’s

Guide to business modelling

by John Tennent, Graham Friend and Economist Group  · 15 Dec 2005  · 287pp  · 44,739 words

revealed that gdp growth rates do not change dramatically from year to year and that they generally follow a cyclical pattern – sometimes described as the business cycle. These two observations can be used to produce a simple forecast for gdp growth and gdp. The approach used assumes an average underlying gdp growth

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in either a positive or a negative direction. The actual rate of growth in any one year, however, will depend on the position within the business cycle. The business cycle is modelled as a sine curve where assumptions entered by the user determine the length and amplitude of the

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business cycle. The use of a sine curve represents a simplifying assumption, as business cycles do not usually exhibit a constant cyclical pattern. Forecasting gdp is useful as it provides a building block for forecasting imports

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modelled as a sine curve and is defined by the user inputs below. This example assumes a five-year business cycle.  The number of years for a complete business cycle (cell E5).  The stage of the business cycle for the current level of gdp, that is, 23,000 (cell E6). A figure of 25% indicates a

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and lowest points of the cycle.  The underlying growth rate of gdp (cell E8). This represents the average growth rate over the length of the business cycle.  The amount each year by which the underlying growth rate changes (cell E9). Over time the underlying growth rate may change, and this is represented

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the gdp growth rate that is calculated in row 8.  Row 4 determines the stage of the business cycle that will help determine the gdp growth rate.  Row 5 divides the full amplitude of the business cycle in half.  Row 6 adjusts the average growth rate for the trend in the average growth rate

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produce the gdp growth rate. The adjusted growth rate of row 6 is altered up or down by the multiplication of the position within the business cycle (row 4) and half of the amplitude (row 5).  The resulting gdp growth rate is then used to generate the final result for gdp in

…

, therefore, is to assume a comparatively stable trend for inflation, with variations around this trend that are related to the peaks and troughs of the business cycle, which was already captured in the modelling of gdp growth. However, a delay between demand increasing and suppliers recognising the increase in demand means that

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inclusion of an additional term in the sine curve position calculation. A lag term has been introduced which offsets inflation from the stage of the business cycle calculated in the gdp working. The results in Chart 9.11 show that the sine curve position results are always one period behind those of

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:  The trend (T) is the long-term, underlying movement of the data.  The evolution of the trend will reflect the booms and slumps of the business cycle. This wave-like pattern, observed in much economic data, is represented by the cyclical component (C).  The observation will also comprise a seasonal component (S

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.13 Chapter 9, page 73 SIN Definition Calculates the SINE of a given angle APPENDIX SPREADSHEET FUNCTIONS Examples of use Syntax Example Reference 269 Forecasting business cycles in the calculation of GDP growth rates ⫽SIN(number) where number is the angle in radians. To convert from degrees to radians multiply it by

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, 75–6, 80–81, 83 beta testing 213 bottom-up forecasting 87–8 Box-Jenkins procedures 96 brainstorming 10, 18 buildings, and residual value 132 business cycle 71, 72, 75, 76, 89 business model output checklist 18 business model input checklist 24 business modelling process 6–11 creating the right business modelling

The Personal MBA: A World-Class Business Education in a Single Volume

by Josh Kaufman  · 2 Feb 2011  · 624pp  · 127,987 words

both be better off if we agreed to trade. The Transaction is the defining moment of every business. Sales are the only point in the business cycle where resources flow into the business, which makes completing Transactions critically important. Businesses survive by bringing in more money than they spend, and there’s

…

http://macfreedom.com. 6 http://www.proginosko.com/leechblock.html. 7 http://www.timessquarenyc.org/facts/PedestrianCounts.html. 8 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory. 9 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania. 10 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble. 11 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United

Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side

by Howard Marks  · 30 Sep 2018  · 302pp  · 84,428 words

—even as it follows the underlying trendline on average—to also exhibit annual variability. The economic cycle (also known—mostly in the past—as “the business cycle”) provides much of the foundation for cyclical events in the business world and the markets. The more the economy rises, the more likely it is

…

. As its lead paragraph says: From boardrooms to living rooms and from government offices to trading floors, a new consensus is emerging: The big, bad business cycle has been tamed. The current expansion, at 67 months, has already far exceeded the post-war average. Nevertheless, 51 of the 53 “top economists” surveyed

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on until the turn of the century.” Sara Lee’s CEO says “I don’t know what could happen to make a cyclical downturn.” (“The Business Cycle is Tamed, Many Say, Alarming Others,” Wall Street Journal, November 15, 1996) Clearly these statements, made in 1996, did not truly mark the end of

Big Debt Crises

by Ray Dalio  · 9 Sep 2018  · 782pp  · 187,875 words

to try to understand the cause-effect relationships behind them. I found that by examining many cases of each type of economic phenomenon (e.g., business cycles, deleveragings) and plotting the averages of each, I could better visualize and examine the cause-effect relationships of each type. That led me to create

…

templates or archetypal models of each type—e.g., the archetypal business cycle, the archetypal big debt cycle, the archetypal deflationary deleveraging, the archetypal inflationary deleveraging, etc. Then, by noting the differences of each case within a type

…

(e.g., each business cycle in relation to the archetypal business cycle), I could see what caused the differences. By stitching these templates together, I gained a simplified yet deep understanding of all these cases

…

interest rates, severe debt crises (i.e., depressions) occur when this is no longer possible. Classically, a lot of short-term debt cycles (i.e., business cycles) add up to a long-term debt cycle, because each short-term cyclical high and each short-term cyclical low is higher in its debt

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the total amount of debt service payments relative to the total amount of income. Bubbles are most likely to occur at the tops in the business cycle, balance of payments cycle, and/or long-term debt cycle. As a bubble nears its top, the economy is most vulnerable, but people are feeling

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priced in that the Fed would tighten two or three times within the year—roughly the amount of tightening you’d expect in a standard business-cycle recovery from a recession. That was odd given conditions. Unemployment rates were still a hair away from postwar highs, wage growth was stuck, homes prices

…

long-term debt cycle. As long-term debt cycles transpire slowly—essentially over a lifetime—most people haven’t experienced many of them, unlike the business cycle which most of us have seen many of. So, while recessions are well understood, deleveragings are not well understood.” –BDO July 21, 2010 Bernanke Comment

Expected Returns: An Investor's Guide to Harvesting Market Rewards

by Antti Ilmanen  · 4 Apr 2011  · 1,088pp  · 228,743 words

hurt the prospects for subsequent long-term equity returns. Empirical evidence suggests that near-term returns of risky assets are relatively high around business cycle troughs and relatively low around business cycle peaks. The two main explanations for the apparent countercyclic pattern in ex ante returns are (1) rationally time-varying risk premia and

…

add value. Rising inflation and interest rates appeared to predict poor equity market returns, average returns were seasonally high in January and cyclically high after business cycle troughs, and volatility seemed excessive given a model of rational investors and constant expected returns. Academic studies reporting long-horizon return predictability using dividend yields

…

echo the long-term reversal pattern (due to overreaction) and short-term momentum pattern (due to underreaction) observed in many asset return series. Real activity. Business cycle indicators are classic equity market predictors. While equities have some ability to predict future growth developments, the opposite relation is more controversial. The consumption/wealth

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ability to predict bond returns Regression studies that predict future bond returns using the YC emphasize return predictability that appears to be tied to the business cycle. In contrast, survey-based BRP estimates exhibit little cyclical variation and much secular variation. To reconcile the evidence, I note that predictability regressions are implicitly

…

countries. Irrational expectations stories come in many forms. An early conjecture suggested that exchange rate flows and rates respond sluggishly to interest rate news. Nonsynchronous business cycles and monetary policy cycles across countries influence real rate and nominal rate differentials, and exchange rates appear to respond to these movements both contemporaneously and

…

recall the debate regarding the countercyclical pattern in risky assets’ expected returns. Many academic studies find that risky asset returns are predictably high (low) after business cycle troughs (peaks). These studies identify expected returns by the ability of some countercyclical indicator (such as yield curve steepness or consumption–wealth ratio) to predict

…

growth and inflation and between real stock and bond returns, 1814–2009. Sources: Arnott–Bernstein (2002), Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, own calculations. Figure 17.3. Average business cycle pattern of inflation over the three 46-year subperiods since 1872. Sources: Robert Shiller’s website, National Bureau of Economic Research, own calculations. (The construction

…

of these business cycle graphs is described in Chapter 26.) In the past, inflation used to be procyclical, rising during expansions and falling during contractions, perhaps because it was

…

exceptional momentum before event days, see Ilmanen–Byrne (2003). On return periodicity, see Heston–Sadka (2008). 26 Cyclical variation in asset returns • Data gathered over business cycles show that, on average, excess returns on risky assets are especially high near cyclical troughs and low near cyclical peaks. • Forward-looking value indicators (dividend

…

the growth environment (benefiting from strong growth). This chapter reviews the way realized returns—and some ex ante carry and value indicators—vary through the business cycle or across different macroeconomic environments. Long data histories are needed for such assessments, which restricts this empirical analysis to core asset classes. Unlike most of

…

the book, this chapter focuses on contemporaneous empirical relations. The observed relationship between the business cycle and asset returns may be more reflective of unexpected returns (data surprises) than of expected returns. When interpreting the relationship of asset returns to the

…

—suggesting good and bad environments for various asset classes and dynamic strategies. 26.1 TYPICAL BEHAVIOR OF REALIZED RETURNS AND EX ANTE INDICATORS THROUGH THE BUSINESS CYCLE Business cycles describe broad fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. The U.S. government considers the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to be the final arbiter of

…

’ forward-looking nature and/or countercyclical risk premium are highlighted by the fact that the stock market’s realized returns are high around business cycle troughs and low around business cycle peaks. Although this is not visible, the CRP has a cyclical pattern similar to that of the ERP, although an order of magnitude

…

defensive stocks to aggressive cyclicals, which is a bad environment for momentum. Figure 26.1. Mean excess returns of equities, government bonds, and credits over business cycle expansion and contraction phases, 1927–2009. Sources: Ken French’s website, Ibbotson Associates (Morningstar), Bloomberg, Citigroup, Barclays Capital, National Bureau of Economic Analysis, own calculations

…

. Figure 26.2. More mean excess returns of U.S. equity styles over business cycle expansion and contraction phases, 1927–2009. Sources: Ken French’s website, National Bureau of Economic Analysis, own calculations. Realized returns are noisy proxies of expected

…

only slightly lower than that near troughs, the yield curve is typically at its flattest at the business cycle trough and steepest near the business cycle peak. Figure 26.3. Mean spreads and valuation ratios across the business cycle, 1927–2009. Sources: Robert Shiller’s website, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Board, Moody’s, Ibbotson Associates (Morningstar

…

), Bloomberg, Citigroup, Barclays Capital, National Bureau of Economic Analysis, own calculations. Figure 26.4. Mean rates across the business cycle, 1927–2009. Sources: Robert Shiller’s website, Federal Reserve Board, Bloomberg, National Bureau of Economic Analysis, own calculations. Finally, Figure 26.4 shows that while

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the long Treasury yield level exhibits almost no cyclical variation, the short rate and the inflation rate clearly vary with the business cycle. Traditionally, the monetary policy cycle and the business cycle were closely related. As capacity utilization and demand-driven inflation pressures rose in a mature expansion, the central bank responded to

…

another secular theme, decades of deregulation and market fundamentalism. Yet others stress the paradox of credibility: central bankers’ apparent success in taming inflation and the business cycle made investors overconfident of the persistence of the Goldilocks environment, resulting in unsustainable increases in credit growth and asset valuations. Details make up the rest

…

; and Tracy Yue Wang (2010b), “Investor overconfidence and the forward premium puzzle,” NBER working paper 15866. Campbell, John Y. (1999), “Asset prices, consumption and the business cycle,” in Handbook of Macroeconomics (John Taylor and Mark Woodford, Eds., pp. 1231–1303), Amsterdam: Elsevier. Campbell, John Y. (2000), “Asset pricing at the millennium,” Journal

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cross-section of foreign currency risk premia and US consumption growth risk,” American Economic Review 97(1), 89–117. Lustig, Hanno; and Adrien Verdelhan (2010), “Business cycle variation in the risk–return tradeoff,” UCLA working paper. Ma, Cindy; and Andrew MacNamara, (2009), “The price of illiquidity: Valuation approaches across asset classes,” Houlihan

…

paper 2010-04, available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1552125 Naes, Randi; Johannes Skjeltorp; and Bernt Arne Odegaard (2011), “Stock market liquidity and the business cycle,” forthcoming in the Journal of Finance. Nagel, Stefan (2009), “Evaporating liquidity,” Stanford University working paper. Naik, Vasant; Srivatha Balakrishnan; and Mukundan Devarajan (2009), Nomura Quantitative

…

Black—Scholes (BS) option-pricing formula Black—Scholes—Merton (BSM) world blind men and elephant poem (Saxe) bond risk premium (BRP) approximate identities bond yield business cycles covariance risk cyclical factors decomposed-year Treasury yield drivers ex ante measures historical returns inflation interpreting BRP IRP macro-finance models nominal bonds realized/excess

…

premium BSM see Black—Scholes—Merton bubbles absolute valuation memory bias money illusion real estate Shiller’s four elements speculative Buffet, Warren building block approach business cycles asset returns economic regime analysis ex ante indicators realized returns buybacks B-S see Black—Scholes option-pricing formula C-P BRP see Cochrane—Piazzesi

…

correlation supply—demand volatility Capital Ideas (Bernstein) capitalism capitalization (cap) rate CAPM see Capital Asset Pricing Model carry strategies 1990—2009 active investing asset classes business cycles credit carry currency ERP financing rates foreign exchange forward-looking indicators forward-looking measures generic proxy role historical returns long-horizon investors non-zero yield

…

writing (CCW) crashes markets see also “bad times” credit default swaps (CDSs) credit-pricing models credit risk credit risk premium (CRP) analytical models attractive opportunities business cycles credit default swaps credit spreads decomposing credit spread default correlations emerging markets debt front-end trading historical excess returns IG bonds low ex post premia

…

credit-pricing models reward—risk single-name risk swap—Treasury spreads tactical forecasting terminology theory credit spreads AAA/AA/A-rated bonds BBB-rated bonds business cycles CRP cyclical effects decomposition empirical “horse races” forward-looking indicators high-yield bonds rolling yield top-rated bonds volatility yield-level dependence credit and tactical

…

indicators seasonals selection biases strategy improvements “timing” the strategy trading horizons unwind episodes why strategies work cyclical effects credit spreads growth seasonal regularities see also business cycles D/P see dividend yield data mining see also overfitting; selection bias data sources of time series data series construction day-of-the-week effect

…

momentum trend following volatility selling enhancing returns costs horizon investors risk management skill EPS see earnings per share equilibrium accounting equilibrium model equities 1990—2009 business cycles carry strategies correlation premium empirical “horse races” forward-looking indicators inflation long history momentum sample-specific valuation tactical forecasting ten-year rolling averages value strategies

…

-sectional relations earnings economic surprises emerging markets GDP growth rates long-term growth time series valuation equity momentum equity premium puzzle equity risk premium (ERP) business cycles DDM equity betas equity premium puzzle ERPB/C ex ante premia forward-looking measures global evidence growth high market valuations historical premium lower premium market

…

geometric mean gold standard government bonds government debt Great Moderation Greenspan, Alan Grinold, Richard gross domestic product (GDP) growth asset class sensitivities asset market relations business cycles determinants emerging markets evidence for GDP inflation long-horizon investors long-term growth as risk factor risk premia speed limits theory time-varying premium yield

…

indices CCW strategies equity fundamental market cap weighted real estate vulnerability see also individual indices industry inefficiency see efficiency inflation asset class sensitivity BEI BRP business cycles commodities currencies deflation determinants disinflation drivers earnings yield equities expectations future trends growth rates history hyperinflation linkers persistence premium process real estate returns 1990—2009

…

estate index MLMCCO see Mount Lucas Management trend-following index mode momentum 1990—2009 active/real asset investing asset classes based on past returns bias business cycles commodities currency carry equities feedback loops liquidity real estate risk factors stocks style rotation models tactical forecasting see also commodity momentum monetary policy cycle, BRP

…

investors losses markets style timing tactical forecasting TIPS see Treasury inflation-protected securities trading costs traditional asset classes Treasuries 1952—2009 attractive opportunities bills BRP business cycles creditworthiness ERPB foreign exchange forward-looking indicators front-end richness interest rates sample-specific valuation survey-based returns swap—Treasury spreads timevarying illiquidity premia timing

…

models TIPS volatility Treasury bills Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) trend following business cycles four-asset classes measures of sectors simple commodity strategies volatility when it works well see also commodity momentum Triumph of the Optimists (Dimson, Marsh, and

…

minus growth see VMG value premium equity value strategies irrational explanations rational explanations style timing value spread, industry adjusted value strategies 1990—2009 active investing business cycles currency carry forward-looking asset returns liquidity real assets risk factors stocks tactical forecasting see also equity value strategies variance risk premium variance-selling strategies

…

variance swaps venture capital (VC) view-based expected returns VMG (value minus growth) volatility asset returns assets faring poorly average returns business cycles commodity momentum credit spreads cross-sectional relations E/P ratio empirical “horse races” equity value strategies financial theories high-volatility assets historical returns leverage long

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Before Babylon, Beyond Bitcoin: From Money That We Understand to Money That Understands Us (Perspectives)

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The World's First Railway System: Enterprise, Competition, and Regulation on the Railway Network in Victorian Britain

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The End of Loser Liberalism: Making Markets Progressive

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A Culture of Growth: The Origins of the Modern Economy

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The Power of Gold: The History of an Obsession

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Getting Back to Full Employment: A Better Bargain for Working People

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Reskilling America: Learning to Labor in the Twenty-First Century

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Trading and Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners

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The Magic of Thinking Big

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The Rise and Fall of the British Nation: A Twentieth-Century History

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Understanding Power

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Python for Finance

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by Ayn Rand  · 15 Aug 1966  · 400pp  · 129,841 words

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J.K. Lasser's Your Income Tax

by J K Lasser Institute  · 30 Oct 2012  · 2,045pp  · 566,714 words

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Borrow: The American Way of Debt

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The Atlantic and Its Enemies: A History of the Cold War

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A History of Zionism

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To Sell Is Human: The Surprising Truth About Moving Others

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The Structure of Scientific Revolutions

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