business cycle

The Innovation Paradox: Developing-Country Capabilities and the Unrealized Promise of Technological Catch-Up

by Xavier Cirera and William Francis Maloney  · 14 Jun 2017  · 373pp  · 109,964 words

insight to these questions. The fundamental work is Joseph Schumpeter’s The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle (1934, translated from the original 1911 German transcript). In this book, Schumpeter helps us see clearly the role of innovation and the entrepreneur in economic

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Learning and the Evolution of Dynamic Capabilities (2002). Joseph A. Schumpeter, The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1934), 65. Ricardo Hausmann et al., The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity, 2nd ed. (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2013

Apple: The First 50 Years

by David Pogue  · 10 Mar 2026  · 686pp  · 216,944 words

our way out of this,” he said. “We’re going to invest in ourselves.” His thinking was that all of this was just one big business cycle. Market slumps were perfect times to invest in new projects; once the economy bounced back, Apple would be sitting pretty. Jobs hired engineers to write

Corporate Finance: Theory and Practice

by Pierre Vernimmen, Pascal Quiry, Maurizio Dallocchio, Yann le Fur and Antonio Salvi  · 16 Oct 2017  · 1,544pp  · 391,691 words

in Europe: Some evidence, Journal of Banking and Finance, 30(5), 1409–1422, May 2006. M. Campello, Capital structure and product market interactions: Evidence from business cycles, Journal of Financial Economics, 68(3), 353–378, June 2003. S. Chava, M. Roberts, How does financing impact investment? The role of debt covenants, Journal

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private credit agreements, Journal of Financial Economics, 93(2), 159–184, August 2009. J. Santos, A. Winton, Bank loans, bonds, and information monopolies across the business cycle, Journal of Finance, 63(2), 1315–1360, June 2008. A. Saretto, H. Tookes, Corporate leverage, debt maturity, and credit supply: The role of default swaps

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holding company’s interest and debt payments. The target must not have burdensome investment needs. Mature companies that are relatively shielded from variations in the business cycle make the best candidates: food, retail, water, building materials, real estate, cinema theatres and business listings providers are all prime candidates. THE WORLD’S 10

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, and has no dollar payables at the same date. That company is said to be long in six-month dollars. Depending on the company’s business cycle, the actual timeframe can range from a few days to several years (if the order backlog is equivalent to several years of revenues). The company

Stocks for the Long Run, 4th Edition: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long Term Investment Strategies

by Jeremy J. Siegel  · 18 Dec 2007

Interest Costs 203 Capital Gains Taxes 204 Conclusion 205 Chapter 12 Stocks and the Business Cycle 207 Who Calls the Business Cycle? 208 Stock Returns around Business Cycle Turning Points 211 Gains through Timing the Business Cycle 214 How Hard Is It to Predict the Business Cycle? 216 Conclusion 219 CONTENTS CONTENTS xi Chapter 13 When World Events Impact Financial

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quickly crossed the Atlantic and were the subject of much discussion in Great Britain. John Maynard Keynes, the great British economist and originator of the business cycle theory that became the accepted paradigm for future generations, reviewed Smith’s book with much excitement. Keynes stated: The results are striking. Mr. Smith finds

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Shares versus Bonds as Permanent Investments,” The Nation & The Athenaeum, May 2, 1925, p. 157. 12 Quoted by Edgar Lawrence Smith in Common Stocks and Business Cycles, New York: William-Frederick Press, 1959, p. 20. 13 Edgar Lawrence Smith, “Market Value of Industrial Equities,” Review of Economic Statistics, vol. 9 (January 1927

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to take some average of past earnings to smooth out temporary increases and decreases in earnings that may be due to such factors as the business cycle. The earnings yield based on a five-year average of past earnings against the next five years of real returns is plotted in Figure 7

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Investment Management, The FAJ 60th Anniversary Anthology, Charlottesville, Va.: CFA Institute, 2005, pp. 202–217. 18 James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson, “Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2002, pp. 159–218. 17 132 PART 2 Valuation, Style Investing, and Global Markets FIGURE 8–2 Monthly Percentage

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2 percent risk premium, implying a P-E ratio of 20. Therefore, if inflation stays low, the tax policy remains favorable for equities, and the business cycle remains muted, one can justify price-to-earnings ratios in the low 20s for the equity market. THE AGE WAVE Inflation, tax policy, macroeconomic stability

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, value stocks were often called cyclical stocks because low-P-E stocks were often found in those industries whose profits were closely tied to the business cycle. With the growth of style investing, equity managers that specialized in these stocks were uncomfortable with the “cyclical” moniker and greatly preferred the term “value

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such industries as oil, motor, finance, and utilities where investors have low expectations of future growth or believe that profits are strongly tied to the business cycle, while growth stocks are generally found in such industries as high technology, brand-name consumer products, and healthcare where investors expect profits either to grow

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quickly or to be more resistant to the business cycle. Of the 10 largest U.S.-based corporations by market value at the end of 2006, Exxon Mobil, Citigroup, and Bank of America had a

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entitled “Good Beta, Bad Beta,” John Campbell separates the beta related to interest rate fluctuations (which he called “good beta”) from the beta related to business cycles (which he called “bad beta”)27 based on historical evidence. But recent data are not supportive of this theory as growth stocks rose from 1997

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even after the tech bubble popped, sector correlations were lower than before. One reason for the decreased correlation between sectors is the moderation of the business cycle, which means that shifts in sector demands, rather than changes in the overall economy, become the primary sources of changes in firm profitability. What does

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market as they had in the past. STOCKS AS HEDGES AGAINST INFLATION Although the central bank has the power to moderate (but not eliminate) the business cycle, its policy has the greatest influence on inflation. As noted above, the inflation of the 1970s was due to the overexpansion of the money supply

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inflation again rears its head, investors will do much better in stocks than in bonds. This page intentionally left blank 12 CHAPTER STOCKS AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE The stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions! PA U L S A M U E L S O N , 1

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do well enough to support these high stock prices. This chapter is an adaptation of my paper “Does It Pay Stock Investors to Forecast the Business Cycle?” in Journal of Portfolio Management, vol. 18 (Fall 1991), pp. 27–34. The material benefited significantly from discussions with Professor Paul Samuelson. 1 “Science and

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words, cited at the beginning of this chapter, still remains true more than 40 years after they were first uttered. But do not dismiss the business cycle too quickly when examining your portfolio. The stock market still responds quite powerfully to changes in economic activity. The reaction of the S&P 500

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Index to the business cycle is displayed in Figure 12-1. Although there were many “false alarms” when a substantial market decline was not followed by a recession, stocks almost

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always fell prior to a recession and rallied rigorously at signs of an impending recovery. If you can predict the business cycle, you can beat the buy-and-hold strategy that has been advocated throughout this book. But this is no easy task. To make money by

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predicting the business cycle, one must be able to identify peaks and troughs of economic activity before they actually occur, a skill very few if any economists possess. Yet

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business cycle forecasting is a popular Wall Street endeavor not because it is successful—most of the time it is not—but because the potential gains are

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so large. WHO CALLS THE BUSINESS CYCLE? It is surprising to many that the dating of business cycles is not determined by any of the myriad government agencies that collect data on CHAPTER 12 Stocks and the

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. Instead, the task falls to the National Bureau of Economic Research (the NBER), a private research organization founded in 1920 for the purpose of documenting business cycles and developing a series of national income accounts. In the early years of its existence, the bureau’s staff compiled comprehensive chronological records of the

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, or contractions, and revivals that merge into the expansion phase of the next cycle; this sequence of changes is recurrent but not periodic; in duration business cycles vary from more than one year to ten or twelve years and they are not divisible into shorter cycles of similar character.3 It is

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the turning points in the economy: employment, industrial production, real personal income, and real manufacturing and trade sales. The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research confirms the business cycle dates. This committee consists of academic economists who are associated with the bureau and who meet to examine economic data

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period, the economy has been in a recession less than one-seventh of the time, far less than the prewar average. The dating of the business cycle is of great importance. The designation that the economy is in a recession or an expansion has political as well as economic implications. For example

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. 444. The data on U.S. recessions are taken from the NBER’s Web site (www.nber.org), which lists business cycles from 1854 onward. 4 CHAPTER 12 Stocks and the Business Cycle 211 cession a month earlier. Similarly the 2001 recession began in March when technology spending dropped sharply and well before the

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9/11 terrorist attacks. The Business Cycle Dating Committee is in no rush to call the turning points in the cycle. Never has a call been reversed because of new or revised

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—and the NBER wants to keep it that way. As Robert E. Hall, current chair of the seven-member Business Cycle Dating Committee indicated, “The NBER has not made an announcement on a business cycle peak or trough until there was almost no doubt that the data would not be revised in light of

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. 1. 212 PART 3 How the Economic Environment Impacts Stocks TABLE 12–1 Recessions and Stock Returns Recession Peak of Stock Index (1) Peak of Business Cycle (2) Lead Time Between Peaks (3) Decline in Stock Index from (1) to (2) (4) Maximum 12 Month Decline in Stock Index (6) 1948-1949

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crash and explain why it did not lead to an economic downturn. The trough in the stock return index and the trough in the NBER business cycle are compared in Table 12-3. The average lead time between a market upturn and an economic recovery has been 4.8 months, and in

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Recession 1948-1949 1953-1954 1957-1958 1960-1961 1970 1973-1975 1980 1981-1982 1990-1991 2001 Trough of Stock Index (1) Trough of Business Cycle (2) May 1949 Oct 1949 Aug 1953 May 1954 Dec 1957 April 1958 Oct 1960 Feb 1961 Jun 1970 Nov 1970 Sep 1974 Mar 1975

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. The maximum excess return of 4.8 percent per year is obtained by investing in bills four months before the business cycle peaks and in stocks four months before the business cycle troughs. The strategy of switching between bills and stocks gains almost 30 basis points (30⁄100 of a 7 The returns of

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the same level of market risk as the buy-and-hold strategy. TABLE 12–4 Switching Returns (Percent) Minus Buy-and-Hold Returns (Percent) around Business Cycle Turning Points, 1802 through December 2006 Switching from Bills to Stocks before Trough Switching from Stocks to Bills before Peaks 4 month 3 month 2

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your wealth over the same time period compared to a buyand-hold strategy. HOW HARD IS IT TO PREDICT THE BUSINESS CYCLE? Billions of dollars of resources are spent trying to forecast the business cycle. The previous section showed that it is not surprising that Wall Street economists desperately try to predict the next

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recession or upturn since doing so dramatically increases returns. But the record of predicting exact business cycle turning points is extremely poor. Stephen McNees, vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, has done extensive research into the accuracy of economic

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severe 1973–1975 and 1981–1982 recessions, much smaller in the 1980 and 1990 recessions, and generally quite minimal apart from business cycle turning points.”8 But it is precisely these business cycle turning points that turn a forecaster into a successful market timer. The 1974 to 1975 recession was particularly tough for economists

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the 8 Stephen K. McNees, “How Large Are Economic Forecast Errors?” New England Economic Review, July/August 1992, p. 33. CHAPTER 12 Stocks and the Business Cycle 217 next recession, which didn’t strike until 1980 while most economists thought it had begun early in 1979. From 1976 to 1995, Robert J

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had already started—forecasting negative GNP growth in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 1979. However, the NBER declared that the peak of the business cycle did not occur until January 1980 and that the economy expanded throughout 1979. By the middle of the next year, forecasters were convinced that a

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that a recession was imminent turned into the belief that prosperity was here to stay. The continuing expansion fostered a growing conviction that perhaps the business cycle had been conquered—by either government policy or the “recessionproof” nature of our service-oriented economy. Ed Yardeni, senior economist at Prudential-Bache Securities, wrote

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the postwar era, Leonard Silk, senior economics editor of the New York Times stated in May 1990 in an article entitled “Is There Really a Business Cycle?”: Most economists foresee no recession in 1990 or 1991, and 1992 will be another presidential year, when the odds tip strongly against recession. Japan, West

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. Which effect is stronger—the change in the interest rate or the change in corporate profits—depends often on where the economy is in the business cycle. Recent analysis shows that in a recession, a strongerthan-expected economic report increases stock prices since the implications for corporate profits are considered more important

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than the change in interest rates at this stage in the business cycle.2 Inversely, a weaker-than-expected report depresses stock prices. During economic expansions, and particularly toward the end of an expansion, the interest rate effect

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of job seekers into an improved labor market. For these reasons, economists and forecasters have downplayed the importance of the unemployment rate in forecasting the business cycle. But this does not diminish the political impact of this number. The unemployment rate is an easily understood figure that represents the fraction of the

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16-4, volatility in 2005 and 2006 was among the lowest in history. There are goods reasons for this: (1) lower economic volatility as the business cycle is muted, (2) the globalization of financial markets that allows investors to diversify risks, and (3) the increased liquidity of markets that allows capital to

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, 359q Bull markets: beginning of, 85–86 from 1982-1999, 14 Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 241 Burns, Arthur, 210n Bush, George W., 69, 75 Business cycle, 207–219, 285 dating of, 208–211 definition of, 209–210 prediction of, 216–219 timing of, gains through, 214–216, 215i turning points of

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McKinley, William, 226–227 McNees, Stephen K., 216 McQuaid, Charles, 346 Mean aversion, 30 Mean reversion, of equity returns, 13 Mean-variance efficiency, 354 Measuring Business Cycles (Mitchell), 209 Melamed, Leo, 165, 251q, 274 Melville, Frank, 61 Melville Shoe Corp., 59i, 61 MENA (Middle East and North Africa), 179 Mental accounting, 329

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Purchasing Managers (NAPM), 243 National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (see Nasdaq entries) National Biscuit Co., 62 National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), 209 Business Cycle Dating Committee of, 210, 211 National Can, 60i, 64 National Dairy, 60i National Distillers and Chemical, 48 National income, ratio of corporate profits to, market

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), 252 Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index, 37, 40, 47, 51–64, 342 outperformance of original S&P 500 firms and, 63–64 reaction to business cycle, 208, 20i sector allocation and, 175i sector rotation in, 52–58, 53i, 55i, 56i top-performing firms in, 58–63, 59i, 60i Standard & Poor’s

Principles of Corporate Finance

by Richard A. Brealey, Stewart C. Myers and Franklin Allen  · 15 Feb 2014

average risk or above- or below-average risk? We suggest you check whether the project’s cash flows are more or less sensitive to the business cycle than the average project. Also check whether the project has higher or lower fixed operating costs (higher or lower operating leverage) and whether it requires

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betas should also have high asset betas. This means that cyclical firms—firms whose revenues and earnings are strongly dependent on the state of the business cycle—tend to be high-beta firms. Thus you should demand a higher rate of return from investments whose performance is strongly tied to the performance

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firm underperforms. But suppose the firm is a cyclical business that always struggles in recessions. Then high-powered incentives will force the manager to bear business cycle risk that is not his or her fault. There are limits to the risks that managers can be asked to bear. So the result is

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-profitability firms. Such firms may suffer more in downturns in the economy. Thus size and book-to-market measures may be proxies for exposure to business-cycle risk. See E. F. Fama and K. R. French, “Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns,” Journal of Finance 50 (March 1995

Financial Statement Analysis: A Practitioner's Guide

by Martin S. Fridson and Fernando Alvarez  · 31 May 2011

more heavily on vendor financing, allowing accounts payable to increase by $278 million. By virtue of being long past the high-growth phase of its business cycle, Kimberly-Clark did not have to spend heavily on adding to its productive capacity. Capital expenditures, the main component of investing activities, therefore absorbed only

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-over-year gains in quarterly earnings is a reason to suspect earnings management. Businesses tend to grow unevenly over time, reflecting such factors as the business cycle, waxing and waning of competitive pressures, and fluctuations in input costs. A second lesson of the Krispy Kreme case is that related-party transactions and

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losses). Typically, this sort of guideline is interpreted as an average payout over time, so that the dividend rate does not fluctuate over a normal business cycle to the same extent that earnings do. A company may even avoid cutting its dividend through a year or more of losses, borrowing to maintain

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.1 through 12.12). When looking forward by as much as five years, though, the analyst must be especially cognizant of the impact of the business cycle. Many companies’ projected financial statements look fine as long as sales grow like a hockey stick (sloping upward). Their financial strength dissipates quickly, however, when

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in the area of gathering information on industry conditions. No matter how refined the methods are, however, perfection will always elude the modeler since no business cycle precisely recapitulates its predecessor. That is what ultimately makes looking forward with financial statements such a challenging task. The lack of a predictable, recurring pattern

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amount of the payout, notwithstanding declines in earnings. For example, a company that aims to pay out 25 percent of its earnings over a complete business cycle might record a payout ratio of 15 percent in a peak year and 90 percent or 100 percent in a trough year. Indeed, a company

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will continue for an infinite number of periods becomes unsustainable. On the other hand, a cyclical company may sustain losses at the bottom of a business cycle but never reach the point at which its funds from operations, net of capital expenditures required to maintain long-term competitiveness, fail to cover the

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television stations, defined as Operating Income + Depreciation and Amortization + Corporate Overhead – Cash Outlays for Acquisition of New Programming + Amortization of Cost of Previously Acquired Programming. business cycle. Periodic fluctuations in economic growth, employment, and price levels. Phases of the classic cycle, in sequence, are peak, recession, trough, and recovery. capital-intensive. Characterized

Stocks for the Long Run 5/E: the Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies

by Jeremy Siegel  · 7 Jan 2014  · 517pp  · 139,477 words

Corporate Earnings Inflationary Biases in Interest Costs Capital Gains Taxes Conclusion Chapter 15 Stocks and the Business Cycle Who Calls the Business Cycle? Stock Returns Around Business Cycle Turning Points Gains Through Timing the Business Cycle How Hard Is It to Predict the Business Cycle? Conclusion Chapter 16 When World Events Impact Financial Markets What Moves the Market? Uncertainty and

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quickly crossed the Atlantic and were the subject of much discussion in Great Britain. John Maynard Keynes, the great British economist and originator of the business cycle theory that became the paradigm for future generations of economists, reviewed Smith’s book with much excitement. Keynes stated: The results are striking. Mr. Smith

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also punctured the myth that grew during Greenspan’s tenure as Fed chairman that the Federal Reserve could fine-tune the economy and eliminate the business cycle. Nevertheless, despite having failed to see the crisis brewing, the Federal Reserve acted quickly to assure liquidity and prevented the recession from becoming far more

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surpassed its precrisis peak, while it took 14 years for consumer prices to recover to their 1929 level following the Great Depression. Deflation worsens a business cycle, since a fall in wages and prices increases the burden of debt, which increases in real value as prices decline. Consumers were already burdened by

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of the last 10 years of aggregate earnings, all measured in real terms. Its purpose is to smooth out temporary fluctuations in profits caused by business cycles. The CAPE ratio was then regressed against the future 10-year real returns on stocks, establishing that this ratio was a significant variable predicting long

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, value stocks were often called cyclical stocks because low-P/E stocks were often found in those industries whose profits were closely tied to the business cycle. With the growth of style investing, equity managers that specialized in these stocks were uncomfortable with the “cyclical” moniker and greatly preferred the term value

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such industries as oil, motor, finance, and utilities where investors have low expectations of future growth or believe that profits are strongly tied to the business cycle, while growth stocks are generally found in such industries as technology, brand-name consumer products, and healthcare where investors expect profits either to grow quickly

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or to be more resistant to the business cycle. DIVIDEND YIELDS Dividends have always been an important criterion for choosing stocks, as Graham and Dodd stated in 1940: Experience would confirm the established verdict

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entitled “Bad Beta, Good Beta,” John Campbell separates the beta related to interest rate fluctuations (which he called “good beta”) from the beta related to business cycles (which he called “bad beta”)27 based on historical evidence. But recent data are not supportive of this theory, as growth stocks first rose relative

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even begins to take its stabilizing actions. STOCKS AS HEDGES AGAINST INFLATION Although the central bank has the power to moderate (but not eliminate) the business cycle, its policy has the greatest influence on inflation. As noted above, the inflation of the 1970s was due to the overexpansion of the money supply

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they have largely succeeded. But if inflation again rears its head, investors will do much better in stocks than in bonds. 15 * * * Stocks and the Business Cycle The stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions. —PAUL SAMUELSON, 19661 I’d love to be able to predict markets and

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words, cited at the beginning of this chapter, still remains true more than 45 years after they were first uttered. But do not dismiss the business cycle too quickly when examining your portfolio. The stock market still responds quite powerfully to changes in economic activity. The reaction of the S&P 500

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Index to the business cycle from 1871 onward is displayed in Figure 15-1. Stocks frequently begin to decline just before the shaded periods, which indicate recessions, and rally rigorously

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at signs of an impending economic recovery. If you can predict the business cycle, you can beat the buy-and-hold strategy that has been advocated throughout this book. FIGURE 15-1 Stock Prices, Earnings, Dividends, and Recessions 1871

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-2012 But this is no easy task. To make money by predicting the business cycle, one must be able to identify peaks and troughs of economic activity before they actually occur, a skill very few if any economists possess. Yet

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it is not—but because the rewards are so large if you can identify the turning point of the business cycle. WHO CALLS THE BUSINESS CYCLE? It is surprising to many that the dating of business cycles is not determined by any of the myriad government agencies that collect data on the economy. Instead, the task

…

falls to the National Bureau of Economic Research (the NBER), a private research organization founded in 1920 for the purpose of documenting business cycles and developing a series of national income accounts. In the early years of its existence, the bureau’s staff compiled comprehensive chronological records of the

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, or contractions, and revivals that merge into the expansion phase of the next cycle; this sequence of changes is recurrent but not periodic; in duration business cycles vary from more than one year to ten or twelve years and they are not divisible into shorter cycles of similar character.3 It is

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period, the economy has been in a recession less than one-sixth of the time, far less than the prewar average. The dating of the business cycle is of great importance. The designation that the economy is in a recession or an expansion has political as well as economic implications. For example

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recession a month earlier. Similarly the 2001 recession began in March when technology spending dropped sharply and well before the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The Business Cycle Dating Committee is in no rush to call the turning points in the cycle. Never has a call been reversed because of new or revised

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reached the end of the recession, the stock market has risen 23.8 percent on average. Therefore, an investor waiting for tangible evidence that the business cycle has hit bottom has already missed a very substantial rise in the market. And as noted above, the NBER does not announce the dates that

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recessions end until many months after the economy turns up. GAINS THROUGH TIMING THE BUSINESS CYCLE My studies show that if investors could predict in advance when recessions will begin and end, they could enjoy superior returns to the returns earned

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beginning and end of the recession gain a mere ½ percentage point return over the buy-and-hold investor. HOW HARD IS IT TO PREDICT THE BUSINESS CYCLE? If one could predict in advance when recessions will occur, the gains would be substantial. That is perhaps why billions of dollars of resources are

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spent trying to forecast the business cycle. But the record of predicting business cycle turning points is extremely poor. Stephen McNees, vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, has done extensive research into the

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had already started—forecasting negative GNP growth in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 1979. However, the NBER declared that the peak of the business cycle did not occur until January 1980 and that the economy expanded throughout 1979. Forecasters’ ability to predict the severe 1981–1982 recession, when unemployment reached

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that a recession was imminent turned into the belief that prosperity was here to stay. The continuing expansion fostered a growing conviction that perhaps the business cycle had been conquered—by either government policy or the “recession-proof nature of our service–oriented economy. Ed Yardeni, senior economist at Prudential-Bache Securities

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the postwar era, Leonard Silk, senior economics editor of the New York Times, stated in May 1990 in an article entitled “Is There Really a Business Cycle?”: Most economists foresee no recession in 1990 or 1991, and 1992 will be another presidential year, when the odds tip strongly against recession. Japan, West

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NBER eventually dated November 2001 as the end of the recession.14 Once again, economists have been unable to call the turning point of the business cycle until well after the date has passed. Forecasters did no better predicting the Great Recession of 2007–2009. The National Bureau of Economic Research did

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recession” [a slowdown in economic growth] in this forecast and nothing more than that.15 CONCLUSION Stock values are based on corporate earnings, and the business cycle is a prime determinant of these earnings. The gains of being able to predict the turning points of the economic cycle are large, and yet

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degree of prescience that forecasters do not yet have. This chapter is an adaptation of my paper “Does It Pay Stock Investors to Forecast the Business Cycle?” in Journal of Portfolio Management, vol. 18 (Fall 1991), pp. 27-34. The material benefited significantly from discussions with Professor Paul Samuelson. 16 * * * When World

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. Which effect is stronger—the change in the interest rate or the change in corporate profits—often depends on where the economy is in the business cycle. Recent analysis shows that in a recession, a stronger-than-expected economic report increases stock prices since the implications for corporate profits are more important

…

than the change in interest rates at this stage in the business cycle.2 Inversely, a weaker-than-expected report depresses stock prices. During economic expansions, and particularly toward the end of an expansion, the interest rate effect

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of job seekers into an improved labor market. For these reasons, many economists and forecasters downplay the importance of the unemployment rate in forecasting the business cycle. But this does not diminish the political impact of this number. The unemployment rate is an easily understood figure that represents the fraction of the

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of Economic Research, 1927, p. 444. The data on U.S. recessions are taken from the NBER’s website (http://www.nber.org), which lists business cycles from 1854 onward. 5. Robert Hall, “Economic Fluctuations,” NBER Reporter, Summer 1991, p. 1. 6. Chapter 19 will discuss the 1987 stock crash and explain

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March 19, 2002; and finally another bear market of 33.0 percent, ending in October. 8. See “Does It Pay Stock Investors to Forecast the Business Cycle?” Journal of Portfolio Management, vol. 18 (Fall 1991), pp. 27-34 9. Stephen K. McNees, “How Large Are Economic Forecast Errors?,” New England Economic Review

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Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), 153 Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 261–262, 266 Burns, Arthur, 231 Bush, President George W., 55, 135 Business Cycle Dating Committee, 232–233 Business cycles conclusions about, 237–238 gains through timing of, 235–236 introduction to, 229–230 market volatility and, 307–308 NBER calling, 230–233

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Research in Security Prices), 113, 176 Cubes, 273 Currency hedging, 201 CVS Corporation, 129 Cycle of economic data, 262–264, 307 Cycles of business. See Business cycles Cyclically adjusted price/earnings (CAPE) ratios, 160–165 Daimler AG, 205 David, Joseph, 91 Day-of-the-week effects, 336–337 Day trading, 281 De

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, 218 Federal funds rate, 218–219 Federal income tax, 141–142 Federal Open Market Committee in 2008 financial crisis, 31 after 2008 financial crisis, 45 business cycles and, 238 inflation and, 267 Federal Reserve Act. See also Federal Reserve System (Fed), 34, 54–55, 213 Federal Reserve System (Fed) in 1982–2000

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IRAs (Individual retirement accounts), 284 Irrational exuberance, 14, 30, 162 IRS (Internal Revenue Service), 225 “Is There a Housing Bubble?,” 29 “Is There Really a Business Cycle?,” 237 ISM (Institute for Supply Management), 263–264 January effect causes of, 328–329 introduction to, 326–328 weakening of, 329–330 Japan after 2008

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indexes, 375 Lowenstein, Roger, 3, 14 Lower bounds, 314–316 Lower-than-expected inflation, 266 Lun, Ts’ai, 70 Lynch, Peter on Buffett, 271 on business cycles, 229 on index products, 271, 288 on mutual funds, 362–365 Lyondell Basell Industries, 116 MacCauley, Frederick, 313 Magellan Fund, 362, 365 Magnitudes of cash

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., 128 McKinley, President William, 247 McNees, Stephen, 236 McQuaid, Charles, 362 Mean aversion of returns, 99 Mean reversion, 6, 162 Mean-variance efficiency, 369 Measuring Business Cycles , 231 Media fiction, 3–19 Median family incomes, 28–29, 210–211 Mehra, Rajnish, 171 Melamed, Leo, 200, 294 Meltzer, Allan, 35 Melville, Frank, 129

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, 367 AOL in, 152 on April 13, 1992, 275 asset classes in, 48–49 bad news vs. good news in, 128 Berkshire Hathaway in, 205 business cycles and, 231 capitalization-weighted indexing in, 368–369 dividend yields and, 145–146, 180–183 earnings reported in, 145–146, 150–153 equity mutual funds

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, 128 top-performing firms in, 126–130 value-weighted, 110–111 Safe-haven status, 51–52 Salomon Brothers, 13–14 Samsung, 205 Samuelson, Paul on business cycles, 229–230, 234 on purchasing power, 93 SAP, 205 Saturday Night Massacre, 217 Savings rates, 66 Savings vehicles, 140 Scholes, Myron, 285–286 Schwert, William

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of 1987 in 2008 financial crisis, 21–22 after 2008 financial crisis, 41–45 age wave and, 62 bonds vs. See Bonds vs. stocks business cycles and. See Business cycles economic data and. See Economic data flash crash of 2010, 297–300 historical patterns in, 7–10, inflation and, 218–226 internationally. See Global

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Thaler, Robert, 323 Thatcher Glass, 129 Theory of Investment Value , 149 Thiel, Peter, 69 Time Warner, 152, 161 Times of month, 335–336 Timing of business cycle, 235–236 TIPS (Treasury inflation protected securities), 86–87, 170, 375 Tishman Speyer, 35 Title II, 53–54 Title XI, 53–54 Titman, Sheridan, 322

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VIX (Volatility Index), 42, 303–305 Vodafone Group, 205 Volatility Index (VIX), 42, 303–305 Volatility of markets in 1987 stock market crash, 291–296 business cycles and, 307–308 circuit breakers and, 296 economics of, 307–308 exchange rate policies and, 293–294 flash crash of May 2010, 297–300 futures

Makers and Takers: The Rise of Finance and the Fall of American Business

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for this book. 42. Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, “The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles,” Working Paper no. 2014-23 (September 2014), 10. 43. Turner, Between Debt and the Devil, chapter 4. 44. Calomiris and Haber, Fragile by Design, 19

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. On occasion, he even took it upon himself to pronounce the onset of a bull market or a bear. IRVING FISHER SAW THE “SO-CALLED business cycle” that obsessed Babson and Hamilton as a mere side effect of the difficulty people had in getting their heads around changes in the value of

…

, and died. Edgar Lawrence Smith was booted from his mutual fund post in 1931 and spent the next few decades spinning weird theories linking the business cycle to the weather. This left the ever-resilient Irving Fisher, who in the 1930s watched his mathematical, rational ideas about economics and markets begin a

…

making but especially decision making about the future. These systematic errors, Macaulay argued, were the main cause of the “violent social disturbances” known as the business cycle.6 The cure he prescribed was more government planning of economic activity, so the future might hold fewer surprises. THAT WAS A FASHIONABLE ENOUGH prescription

…

big impression on Mitchell, who stayed on at Chicago for his Ph.D., then went on to become the nation’s foremost authority on the business cycle. Mitchell subscribed neither to Roger Babson’s simplistic action-begets-reaction formula nor to Fisher’s belief that the “dance of the dollar” explained all

…

fluctuations. He seemed to subscribe to no theory at all. Instead, he saw the business cycle as a natural part of the workings of capitalism and hoped that close examination of the data would enable him to understand it better. Mitchell

…

. “The one name by which the eager young men swore was the only one I had not known…Wesley Clair Mitchell,” he later wrote. “Indeed business cycles and institutionalism were the two main topics of discussion.”11 Fred Macaulay, Mitchell’s student at Columbia and one of his first hires at NBER

…

crash and the Depression came, the moment seemed ripe for Mitchell and the institutionalists to seize control of American economics once and for all. The business cycle had asserted itself in all its ferociousness. Irving Fisher’s talk of a “permanently high plateau” for stock prices proved to be nonsense, and near

…

but for recognizable patterns and, not surprisingly, many were found. The purported link between the British business cycle and sunspots was one. Another famous example came in the mid-1920s when the young founder of Moscow’s Business Cycle Institute, Nikolai Kondratiev, proposed that economic activity moved in half-century-long “waves.”35 As

…

paired microeconomics, the elegant study of the interactions of hyperrational firms and individuals, with less elegant macroeconomic explanations of the economy-wide phenomena like the business cycle. (The terms were coined by Ragnar Frisch, Irving Fisher’s partner in launching the Econometric Society.) Such juxtapositions came to typify Samuelson’s approach. In

…

a macroeconomist, Modigliani had been puzzling over this matter because corporate decisions about whether to hoard money or invest it in future growth affect the business cycle. Together with Miller he came up with a straightforward plan of intellectual attack: Assume that all the firm’s owners, and all its potential owners

…

day a mathematically inclined graduate student in economics would apply the elegant formulas he was learning in micro class to the inelegant problems of the business cycle. It was also perhaps inevitable that this would happen at Carnegie Tech’s Graduate School of Industrial Administration, that pioneer in imposing the scientific method

…

fight market forces.”15 Greenspan got his economic philosophy from a grab bag of sources. He was the last prominent product of the school of business cycle research established by Wesley Mitchell—his initial Ph.D. adviser was Mitchell’s protégé Arthur Burns—and he shared with Mitchell and Burns an almost

…

tactile feel for economic statistics and business cycles. He was a follower of libertarian philosopher and novelist Ayn Rand, and he shared her distrust of meddling governments. His monetary policy ideas owed much

…

Society were among the first to seriously examine some of the defining dilemmas of market capitalism. Among them was the question of what caused the business cycle—and in particular the periodic sharp downturns in financial markets that accompanied it. William Langton, a banker who was the Statistical Society’s driving force

…

explanations of the market’s ups and downs that rested on something more solid than mass mood swings. The standard neoclassical theories simply ignored the business cycle. The mainstream economists such as Irving Fisher and John Maynard Keynes who explored economic downturns tended to portray them more as fixable divergences from the

…

III and Associates, Common Stock Indexes, 2d ed., (Bloomington, Ind.: Principia Press Inc., 1939). 29. Irving Fisher, in “Our Unstable Dollar and the So-Called Business Cycle,” Journal of the American Statistical Association (June 1925): 199, approvingly cites Holbrook Working, “Prices and the Quantity of Circulating Medium, 1890–1921,” Quarterly Journal of

…

Koopmans, “Measurement Without Theory,” Review of Economics and Statistics (Aug. 1947): 167. It was a review of Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell, Measuring Business Cycles (New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1946). 4. Milton Friedman, “Wesley C. Mitchell as Economic Theorist,” Journal of Political Economy (Dec. 1950): 465–93

…

, 278–79, 323, 366n. 29 bull markets, 18, 61–62, 255, 279, 291 Burns, Arthur, 76, 217, 258 Bush, George W., 295 business cycle, 19–20, 28, 81, 309–10 Business Cycle Institute, 41 Business Week, 97–98 California Institute of Technology, 147 California Public Employees Retirement System (Calpers), 272, 273–74 Cambridge, University

…

–27, 130, 131, 205, 209 Financial Times, 163 First Call, 281 Fischhoff, Baruch, 185–86 Fisher, Irving, 320–321, 323 background, 8–11 and the business cycle, 19–20, 311 on common stocks, 22–23 and Cowles, 36 and equilibrium theory, 301, 304 and the Federal Reserve, 242–43 and financial success

…

, 201, 289, 291, 316, 324 Kassouf, Sheen, 217–18 Kendall, Maurice, 63–65, 68–69, 132 Ketchum, Marshall, 53 Keynes, John Maynard, 324 and the business cycle, 311, 338n. 16 and Edgar Smith, 22 and exchange rates, 92 and heuristics, 303–4 and influence of theory, xv–xvi and interest, 319 and

…

Economics, 63 Rand, Ayn, 91, 258 RAND Corporation, 55, 59, 86 A Random Walk Down Wall Street (Malkiel), 129–30 random walk hypothesis and the business cycle, 26–28 and computing, 99–101 and Cowles, 35–39 and Fama, 96–97 and ideological debate, 29–35 and Malkiel, 129–30 and market

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