capital controls

Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider’s View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead

by Kenneth Rogoff  · 27 Feb 2025  · 330pp  · 127,791 words

had already become an increasingly important economy, commanding increasing attention from the IMF for its growing global impact. There was considerable concern that despite the capital controls that insulated China during the Asian debt crisis in the 1990s, its fixed exchange rate regime would eventually lead to trouble, both for China and

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it be better for China to move off the hard peg now, from a position of strength? we asked. The Chinese expressed confidence that their capital controls were reasonably watertight, though they did not have a good answer when asked about the large discrepancies between the export and import numbers China was

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and out of the country using the time-honored accounting trick of under- and over-invoicing. In one meeting, I commented that Europe had strong capital controls in the years after World War II. However, as trade grew those controls became easier to evade and Europe’s fixed exchange rates against the

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rather passionate explanation of why the IMF was being unfair in its criticisms of China’s capital-control regime. She complained that the IMF was not giving China enough credit for all it had done to loosen capital controls, explaining that China had eliminated forty-eight of the sixty-five restrictions that the IMF

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get it off human-rights watch lists. Had I been quicker on my feet, I would have been more sympathetic. In their work on measuring capital controls, the economists Menzie Chinn and Hiro Ito argued that although of course what matters is the intensity of a country’s

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capital controls, not just their number, very often the two are highly correlated.1 Countries with intense capital controls need to have a wide range of restrictions to shut off every avenue of evasion. And Madame

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fixed-rate system supported strong growth throughout much of the world in the 1950s and 1960s (though in the 1950s Europe and Japan had intense capital controls). Widespread restrictions on international capital movements prevented speculators from bringing down the exchange rate peg at the cost of holding back financial market development, much

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a bad idea per se; he simply believed that policymakers would have trouble living within the straitjacket fixed rates imply, since even with all the capital controls put in place after the war, there were still periodic realignments, that is, occasions when a country (e.g., France) had to change its dollar

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isolationist development strategy—was not in the game, despite its rapidly expanding outsourcing sector. A number of influential left-leaning economists pushed for restoring strong capital controls,2 advice that some highly interventionist socialist governments outside Asia welcomed with open arms. In 2003, Argentine president Néstor Kirchner and Brazilian president Lula da

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Silva signed the “Buenos Aires Consensus” on macroeconomic policy and capital controls, which was intended to run counter to the “Washington consensus” that called for relatively open markets and stable macroeconomic policies.3 In practice, Venezuela was

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capital controls were extensive on paper. However, rampant use of under- and over-invoicing of exports and imports dramatically muted their effect. Leakage of this kind amounted

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the complete solution (unless those reserves were as massive as Hong Kong’s). Three further factors helped. First, Asian countries restored some of their international capital controls, particularly on inflows of funds. Second, and much more importantly, they improved domestic regulation, strengthening capital requirements on banks, for example. Although not technically a

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Asia, did not so much reject the Washington consensus as choose to adopt key elements and insert their own improvements. Asian policymakers understood that although capital controls and financial market regulation have their uses, they cannot compensate for deep inconsistencies in macroeconomic policies. Asian policymakers thus built up reserves, strengthened regulation, and

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former academics—argued that Asia was just following the same development strategy as Europe had used after the war, employing a mix of intervention and capital controls to maintain an undervalued exchange rate in order to promote growth.1 They described the international monetary system as having evolved into a Bretton Woods

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is far from clear that Europe’s exchange rates were undervalued. In fact, with only a couple of exceptions (mainly Germany), post-war Europe needed capital controls to protect their overvalued exchange rates, and to conserve precious dollars. By contrast, as explained in the previous chapter, most Asian economies were really following

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, and an independent monetary policy. Rey argues that, in fact, the core problem is a dilemma. Countries that want independent monetary policy need to have capital controls. A floating exchange rate is not enough. Rey’s work has helped motivate efforts to understand whether there are intermediate solutions involving some modest use

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of capital controls and intermediate exchange rate flexibility; we have already mentioned the Asian model as well as Gita Gopinath’s research. Although there have been some exciting

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is being used for transactions, not just as a store of value. Not surprisingly, the cross-border outflows are particularly large from countries with intense capital controls, including Nigeria, Venezuela, Ghana, Argentina, and Russia. There are many exciting new approaches to studying these issues; the example I have provided is just one

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, no. 2 (May 2002): 379–408. Chapter 7. The People’s Bank of China 1. Menzie Chinn and Hiro Ito, “What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions,” Journal of Development Economics 81, no. 1 (October 2006): 163–192. 2. Ayhan Kose et al., “The Effects of Financial Globalization on

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bank hard currency reserves, however, are not a bottomless pit. Eventually, the government has to take action to bring macroeconomic policy into line or make capital controls much stricter. It can defy the trilemma for a time, but not forever. 4. Lawrence Schembri, “Canada’s Experience with a Flexible Exchange Rate in

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involves intra-firm trade (e.g., Ford Mexico sending parts to Ford USA), it becomes apparent how doubly difficult it is to enforce overly stringent capital controls in an otherwise open economy. For example, a multinational firm can get money into China by having its Chinese plant pay a high price for

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, 303 n.2 Canada, 169, 286 Bank of Canada, 118, 199, 322 n.9 military spending by, 49, 237 Canon, 27, 28 Canzoneri, Matthew, 214 capital controls, 155, 157, 194 Cardoso, Fernando Henrique, 142, 143 Carlsen, Magnus, 259, 260, 326 n.23 Carney, Mark, 174 Carter, Jimmy (President, United States), 250, 252

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, 252, 259, 260, 267, 289 Chile, 169, 304 n.3 China, 20, 162–63, 183, 185, 201, 211, 217–18, 285–86 Beidaihe, 88, 89 capital controls in, 71, 84 central control in, 65, 95 China Development Forum, 99 China Development Research Foundation, 93–95 Chinese Executive Leadership Academy Pudong, 87–88

The Radical Fund: How a Band of Visionaries and a Million Dollars Upended America

by John Fabian Witt  · 14 Oct 2025  · 735pp  · 279,360 words

mass economy, they saw that prosperity and control could be accomplished together, but only if control were relocated to a collective democratic process. Joint labor-capital control of a rationally managed economy might bring new efficiency, higher living standards, and industrial democracy, all together in one interwoven and mutually supportive package. Excitement

Globalists

by Quinn Slobodian  · 16 Mar 2018  · 451pp  · 142,662 words

declared that the unregulated global free market was “the last utopia”—and the international financial institutions partly agreed.10 They dropped their doctrinaire opposition to capital controls, the very subject of the 2016 Fortune article. The World Trade Organization (WTO) underwent a similar facelift. After protests shut down its 1999 meeting, it

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Thomas Balogh who dominated the young UN. The new language of “development” and the subfield of “development economics” helped legitimize worldwide demands for full employment, capital controls, and the right to nationalize foreign-owned assets and resources. As Röpke put it sarcastically, “today’s ‘human rights’ as formulated by the UN include

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considered an act of aggression and a violation of human rights in international law.”72 By exchange control, Cortney meant what is better known as capital controls: the right to change money from one currency to another, specifically with the goal of transferring the money over a national border. The right to

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use capital controls was included in the framework of the IMF at Bretton Woods, a fact that Heilperin condemned as one of its crucial failings. Though many observers

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, Heilperin turned the problem around. “It is not the money that is ‘hot,’ ” he said, “but the place from which it takes flight.”73 If capital controls were removed, countries that had drawn investors would have to establish conditions hospitable enough to induce foreign capital to remain. Cortney’s rhetorical move was

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a “preferential” position.82 Heilperin had already noted in his 1947 book that the protection for foreign investors had to exceed that for citizens. If capital controls applied to citizens, for example, they must not be allowed to apply to aliens. “Equality of treatment,” he said, “does not suffice.83 In a

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term. Utopias of deplanning were rejected for the collective risk-pooling of the welfare state. Postwar regimes of free trade were riddled with exceptions, and capital controls were sanctioned by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Universal investment codes ran aground on the rock of national sovereignty. Part of the problem seemed to

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Labour Organization (ILO), 23, 56, 72, 199, 240, 266, 281, 283 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2, 4, 23, 25, 119, 125–126, 276, 278; and capital controls, 241; transformation of, 222; voting model in, 177 International relations, as a discipline, 77, 85, 89 International Statistical Institute, 35, 70, 72 International Studies Conference

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: economic, 52, 82–83, 85; global, 258 Modern Age, 154 Modernization theory, 147, 159 Mollet, Guy, 195 Molnar, Thomas, 166 Money, 16–17, 111, 143; capital controls, 124, 134, 148; currency union, 188; exchange control, 120, 137; hot money, 241; monetarism, 23, 222; monetary governance, 4, 23, 46, 119, 129, 241, 285

Crack-Up Capitalism: Market Radicals and the Dream of a World Without Democracy

by Quinn Slobodian  · 4 Apr 2023  · 360pp  · 107,124 words

it.83 (One textbook observed that nearly any two places in the world could be linked by a stopover in Dubai.)84 The end of capital controls and the fluidity of money turned the emirate’s gleaming towers and villas into three-dimensional tax-free savings accounts. Dubai was a perfect symbol

The Means of Prediction: How AI Really Works (And Who Benefits)

by Maximilian Kasy  · 15 Jan 2025  · 209pp  · 63,332 words

live in a capitalist society, and in such a society the objectives of AI are typically determined by the owners of capital. The owners of capital control the means of prediction that are needed for building AI—data, computational infrastructure, technical expertise, and energy. More generally, the objectives of AI are determined

The Quiet Coup: Neoliberalism and the Looting of America

by Mehrsa Baradaran  · 7 May 2024  · 470pp  · 158,007 words

sovereignty.”19 Through treaties and declarations, the nations of the Global South tried to nurture and protect their nascent export economies with tariff protections and capital controls. As more countries joined the United Nations, it became another site where leaders from the Global South forged alliances. In 1960, Bunche’s “Year of

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most of the Western nations, including the United States during the era of Bretton Woods. Small nations could not build their economies without tariffs and capital controls, which allowed native industries to grow without having to compete with better-resourced nations. Their main area of concern was with the power of transnational

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.) These laws erected dams and barriers that protected small banks against the ever present forces of conglomeration and power that accumulate in finance. Activity restrictions, capital controls, geographical limits, and interest rate caps—the risky magic of banking was carefully regulated. For a while, the only competition allowed between banks was who

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, 67 Camp Fire, xiii–xiv, xviii, xx, xxii, xxiv cancer, 86 capital, 45–46, 52, 258, 261–62, 270–76, 321, 350–51, 354, 355 capital controls, 49, 50, 255 capitalism, xxiv–xxv, xxxiii, 11, 12, 19, 21, 26, 29, 52, 53, 81, 89, 95, 122, 184, 185, 191, 192, 194, 195

Mastering Private Equity

by Zeisberger, Claudia,Prahl, Michael,White, Bowen, Michael Prahl and Bowen White  · 15 Jun 2017

to build on the company’s established strengths but also look for new ways to release cash or increase profit margins. Typical initiatives include working capital controls and the adoption of more sophisticated pricing strategies. Where an improvement is expected to be self-funding, PE will assess the opportunity using conventional measures

The City

by Tony Norfield  · 352pp  · 98,561 words

the dollar was widespread by the early 1960s, but the [US] Treasury opposed any proposals for fundamental reforms to the financial system and instead adopted capital controls. The latter, however, did little to reduce the outflows of capital associated with foreign direct investment by American companies.31 By 1960, and more evidently

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the expectation that OPEC oil revenues would be invested in US securities.21 Before 1979, several other countries had followed the US in cutting back capital controls, including Canada and Germany. The collapse of Bretton Woods in the early 1970s had also brought about a boom in financial market activity. For example

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access to the sources of foreign finance that the expanding euromarkets were providing. For the US, the UK and Japan, a key motivation for lifting capital controls was to boost their own financial markets and gain a bigger share of this growing business. By 1981, the US authorities had become more favourably

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’ by 1992. The scope of this single market was not restricted to the products of industry and regular services. It also included the removal of capital controls and a ‘free market’ in financial services within the EU. A number of these policies had already been operative since the late 1970s. By 2012

The Blockchain Alternative: Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy and Economic Theory

by Kariappa Bheemaiah  · 26 Feb 2017  · 492pp  · 118,882 words

.2% and a total capital ratio of 14.5% (BIS, 2016). In the context of creating money these capital requirements, in the form of tiered capital controls, allow central banks to control the issuance of debt, and hence money, by commercial banks. For the sake of simplicity, let’s assume that the

India's Long Road

by Vijay Joshi  · 21 Feb 2017

r o e c o n o mic S ta b i l i t y [ 155 ] 156 India’s regime of ‘managed floating’ plus capital controls has been helpful in avoiding these various pitfalls. It has enabled the authorities to target the exchange rate from time to time to preserve trade

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competitiveness, while letting the market dictate the level of the exchange rate most of the time. At the same time, since the capital controls have been specific, not pervasive, they have allowed the economy to enjoy many of the benefits of free capital flows (while protecting it against movements

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be higher than that earned on the dollar reserves that are bought. Sterilized intervention, therefore, can only be applied in moderation, as a supplement to capital controls, not as a substitute for it. The main reason for managing the exchange rate is to help preserve trade competitiveness and ensure that the current

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competitiveness (or it would surely not have allowed the recent substantial real appreciation).48 Another concern is the strong trend since 2010 towards liberalization of capital controls on external commercial borrowing by companies and banks, and debt flows more generally, including inflows of foreign money into government securities. This kind of borrowing

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India should be wary of abandoning its tried and tested policy of managing the exchange rate to maintain export competitiveness, with the help of targeted capital controls,50 and sterilized intervention, as and when necessary. It would be unwise to change this policy framework until rapid export growth is more secure, and

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have to float cleanly. But an inflation targeting regime for India would not be faced with this dilemma, if it retained sterilized intervention and focused capital controls on hot money movements as T h e R e q u i s i t e s of M a c r o e

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greater burden on interest rate policy in fighting inflation but in my view that would have been a price worth paying. See Subramanian (2009, 2012a). Capital controls overlap with prudential regulatory instruments and there is no hard and fast distinction between the two. A solvency problem would also lead to capital flight

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stranglehold on IMF decision-​making.30 The third problem with the IMS is volatility of capital flows, which has the potential to cause financial havoc. Capital controls are a measure that attacks this problem directly. They used to be regarded by the IMF as beyond the pale but India has maintained them

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good effect. This is a case where the IMF’s position has moved closer to India’s over the years. The IMF now recognizes that capital controls may be necessary to defend national financial stability. The East Asian crisis of 1997 was partly responsible for the change of view. More recently, in

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capital account ‘may not be the right goal for all countries at all times’ but it wants to establish multilateral ‘rules of the game’ for capital controls since they may have harmful spill-​over effects on other countries. For example capital inflow controls may act as a ‘beggar-​my-​neighbour’ policy by

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rate more depreciated than it would otherwise be. In practice, it would be impossible to lay down operationally useful criteria to distinguish benign from harmful capital controls. There is a danger that the ‘rules of the game’ may degenerate into rigidly applied tick-​boxes, which harass small countries that do not have

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Fed will not agree to be constrained in their use of monetary policy. So, India has quite rightly been lukewarm about establishing multilateral rules for capital controls. International Trade India’s trade policy, which had been highly protectionist for three decades from the mid-​1950s, became much more open after the advent

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. Contrary to some purist views, inflation targeting and a managed float of the exchange rate are not incompatible, if they are supported by some focused capital controls and occasional foreign exchange intervention, sterilized or unsterilized as necessary. (This could be called a regime of ‘managed floating plus’.) Fiscal sustainability is the third

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–╉3 reform of capital markets, 97–╉9, 291 see also human capital; investment; environment capital capital account convertibility (CAC), 155, 159, 253, 262 capital controls, 155–╉6, 262–╉3 capital flows, 157, 250, 254, 282 volatility of, 262 338 capital-​output ratio, 19 capitalism, 60–​2 carbon tax

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