Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider’s View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead
by Kenneth Rogoff · 27 Feb 2025 · 330pp · 127,791 words
Ways the United States Helps Countries Deal with Dollar Dominance Chapter 23. Costs of Being a Dominant Currency Part VI. Peak Dollar Dominance Chapter 24. Central Bank Independence: The Bulwark of Currency Dominance Chapter 25. Debtor’s Empire: The United States’ Achilles’ Heel Chapter 26. The Siren Call of “Lower Forever” Interest Rates
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was the promise of enjoying the same kind of low inflation levels Germans had. My guess is that had each of their countries simply established independent central banks, designed to place a large weight on inflation stabilization, it would have done the job, or so my research in the early 1980s suggested.1
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to maintain its lifestyle. The euro does have some undeniable strengths that just might come to the fore in coming decades. For starters, the independence of the European Central Bank is etched into the Maastricht treaty of 1992. The U.S. Federal Reserve, by contrast, was founded in 1913 by an act of
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figured out that if the main object was to restore low inflation, a more enduring and direct approach would have been to give national central banks much greater independence and to direct them to put a large weight on inflation stabilization.9 One wonders whether the Eurosystem might have evolved quite differently than
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most countries should instead adopt a flexible exchange rate regime with inflation targeting. We emphasized that this would be much more effective if coupled with central bank independence. Thus, the Brookings panel discussion around Dornbusch and Werner’s paper was wrong in one essential element. Mexico didn’t just need a one-time
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of inflation targeting a couple of years later, in 2001. What made Fraga’s move so astounding was that central bank independence is normally a key institutional requirement for inflation targeting to succeed. Without independence, the central bank will constantly be forced to succumb to political influence—for example, inflationary finance, where the central bank prints
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to soak up government debt, without worrying about the effect on inflation. Fraga managed to use inflation targeting as a mechanism to assert de facto central bank independence, even though there was no legislation to that effect. President Cardoso’s strong public support was critical. It must be added that even with Fraga
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’s extremely thoughtful implementation of central bank independence, it still might not have worked without a major loan from the IMF to bridge the transition to stability, especially in 2002, when Brazil was
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traveled to Brasilia, the capital in the north of Brazil where the central bank was located, just to understand better for myself whether the central bank’s operating independence was to be believed. I also needed to decide how to advise the IMF’s managing director, Horst Köhler, on plans to offer Brazil
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early research on the topic, perhaps I am a little biased by his courageous decision to give the central bank so much de facto independence and to stick by it when the going got tough. Formal central bank independence took much longer. It was finally granted in 2021 (technically only “autonomy” was granted), and although the
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rate flexibility, issuing most government debt in local currency, and frankly, for the most part, adopting relatively conservative monetary and fiscal policies. Emerging central banks have become more independent, and notably they did not make the mistake that advanced economies made after the pandemic by waiting too long to raise interest rates. Instead
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of being a military superpower, and is not quite the unalloyed benefit that it is sometimes portrayed as. Part VI Peak Dollar Dominance CHAPTER 24 CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE The Bulwark of Currency Dominance “Climate is systemic risk, climate is systemic risk,” a dozen protestors chanted as they pushed their way onto the stage
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. Back in August 1979, when Volcker arrived as chairman of the Fed, few countries endowed their central banks with any significant independence from their treasury departments. Only the Bundesbank and the Fed could be regarded as truly independent central banks; the Bank of England wasn’t granted independence to set interest rates until 1997. Watching the
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Volcker Fed up close led me to formulate a theory that offered a new rationale for having an independent central bank, and for choosing central bankers who are more “conservative” than society as a whole, in the sense that they are known to place a high
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weight on controlling inflation compared with short-term output stabilization. Equivalently, as my 1985 paper showed, the independent central bank can simply place significant weight on hitting an inflation target.7 Earlier work, especially the Nobel Prize–winning work of Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott
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of the financial system, which would defy any attempt to enshrine a mechanical rule. Having an independent central bank with a strong commitment to stabilizing inflation solves these problems. At the time, the idea of instituting an independent central bank with an anti-inflation character or mandate was rather radical, and it was a long multiyear
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involved just enough mathematics to discourage careful reading by anyone outside of academia, especially journalists, and the paper slipped through. The idea for making the central bank both independent and exceptionally inflation focused had come partly from watching Volcker’s predecessor, the hapless G. William Miller, who was appointed by President Carter as
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patterned off either the Bundesbank or the Fed model, with the refinement of making inflation targets more specific (per a main example in my paper). Central bank independence has generally been one of the major successes of modern macroeconomics and has paved the way for a huge turnaround in central bank performance. If
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you don’t believe that central bank independence matters for inflation stability, consider that during the first hundred years of the Federal Reserve’s existence, from 1913 to 2013, the U.S. consumer
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a foothold in some regions, a broader theme we have mentioned before and will return to in the last chapter. So, if the case for central bank independence has now become so clear, why should there be any concern going forward? One problem is that in the low-inflation era, too many people
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to “modern monetary theory,” an extreme variant of this approach, in the next chapter.) If the Fed were to try helicopter money on its own, central bank independence would quickly become a distant memory; perhaps the Fed would even lose its headquarters and have to move back to the U.S. Treasury building
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analysis of their speeches suggests that central bankers are being pushed hard to engage in such issues.16 So far, we have discussed attacks on central bank independence from the left, where a lot of the action and ideas have been in recent years. However, the Fed has also come under assault from
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kind of mission creep in central banking has become a global phenomenon. Although there is no space here to go into detail, the rise of central bank independence has proved phenomenally successful in emerging markets, far more so than I would have ever guessed back in the early 1980s. (The Brazilian central bank
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likely, especially if there is another major shock such as a cyber war or a pandemic. Nor can one presume that politicians will always find central bank independence convenient. Donald Trump’s proposal that the President have a direct input into Fed policy is particularly blunt, but even a more conventional administration in
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. 6 (December 1976): 1161–1176. 8. “Inflation, Consumer Prices for Germany” (series: FPCPITOTLZGDEU), FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). 9. The idea of employing central bank independence as an alternative mechanism for achieving inflation stability was first formally developed in Kenneth S. Rogoff, “The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary
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–14. 14. “Brazilian Reals to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate” (series: DEXBZUS), FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). 15. Juliana Bolzani et al., “Central-Bank Independence Comes to Brazil,” Project Syndicate, May 21, 2021. Chapter 14. Lebanon and Argentina 1. It was not the first time Köhler had put me on
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-Olivier Gourinchas, Hélène Rey, and Nicolas Govillot, “Exorbitant Privilege and Exorbitant Duty,” IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-20 (Bank of Japan, 2010). Chapter 24. Central Bank Independence 1. Kenneth Rogoff, “The Age of Inflation: Easy Money, Hard Choices,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2022. 2. The specter of rising political pressures on central
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and Monetary Community, 46–47 central bank digital currencies (CBDC), 199–207, 289, 290 challenges with, 201–3 purposes of, 200 Central Bank of Russia, 139 central banks, 294 n.15 independence of, 51, 121, 142–43, 158, 166, 247–61 political pressures on, 250 swap lines, 231–35. See also central bank digital
Globalists
by Quinn Slobodian · 16 Mar 2018 · 451pp · 142,662 words
the history of the neoliberal fix in different ways. One scholar writes of the “nonmajoritarian” models of governance in port authorities and the idea of central bank independence.20 Still others have seen this strain in the European Central Bank and the governance structure of the European Union.21 Other scholars have described
Eurowhiteness: Culture, Empire and Race in the European Project
by Hans Kundnani · 16 Aug 2023 · 198pp · 54,815 words
Helmut Kohl to agree to finally move ahead. In return for his agreement, the new currency was created largely on German terms, with a “hyper-independent” central bank based on the Bundesbank that was committed almost exclusively to preventing inflation, and fiscal rules that set limits on deficits and debts.6 The creation
The New Class War: Saving Democracy From the Metropolitan Elite
by Michael Lind · 20 Feb 2020
immigrants at home. And wages and unemployment levels are affected by many other factors, including changes in tax laws, reclassification of employees as independent contractors, zero-hours contracts, central bank austerity policies, and, in the US, the continuing practice of interregional labor arbitrage among states and the erosion of the minimum wage by
Windfall: The Booming Business of Global Warming
by Mckenzie Funk · 22 Jan 2014 · 337pp · 101,281 words
worked. The class erupted. “Integration is a slippery slope,” said McKeown. A student on the far side of the room agreed. “We could lose our central-banking independence, our monetary independence, our social democratic Canadianism,” he said. “Our sovereignty is us, right? Without it we lose independent policy all over the board.” “Has
Revolting!: How the Establishment Are Undermining Democracy and What They're Afraid Of
by Mick Hume · 23 Feb 2017 · 228pp · 68,880 words
actions of the New Labour government, which gave the Bank these powers to set interest rates while floating above democratic politics.) When technocrats talk about ‘independent’ central banks, the key thing is that they should be independent of any democratic interference by the millions who pay the price for their policies. They seriously
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needs, be left to decide? No, better by far we are told to entrust the setting of interest rates to the independent experts in the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. Never mind that millions of people’s lives will be directly affected by whatever the bankers
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its place, but its place is apparently not at the financial top table with the City money-men and Euro-bankers. The important thing about ‘independent’ central banks is that they are supposed to be independent of any political interference – otherwise known as democratic control. The central banks were handed these powers by
This Is Not Normal: The Collapse of Liberal Britain
by William Davies · 28 Sep 2020 · 210pp · 65,833 words
sought to reassure international investors that they will stick to predictable regulatory, monetary and fiscal frameworks. Various instruments have been invented to achieve this, from central bank independence, which removes monetary policy from the domain of democratic politics, to the ‘stability and growth pact’ that has limited European Union member states’ fiscal freedoms
The Laundromat : Inside the Panama Papers, Illicit Money Networks, and the Global Elite
by Jake Bernstein · 14 Oct 2019 · 470pp · 125,992 words
Cavendish International, 54 Cayman Islands, 4, 23, 66, 98, 115, 140 Center for Public Integrity (CPI), 148–52, 161, 187, 225–27 ICIJ independence from, 273–74 Central Bank of Cyprus, 61 Chagall, Marc, 113 Chan, Yuen-Ying, 164–66, 175, 244 Channel Islands, 24, 259 charities, as fake beneficiaries, 44 Charlie Hebdo
The Aristocracy of Talent: How Meritocracy Made the Modern World
by Adrian Wooldridge · 2 Jun 2021 · 693pp · 169,849 words
in the long term but a secret sauce that is becoming more potent. Studies of institutions point in the same direction as cross-country studies. Independent central banks are more successful at controlling inflation than are those beholden to governments and therefore voters.7 Independent judges, appointed by technocratic merit commissions, produce sounder
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1994.33 The best way forward is to supplement democratic institutions with meritocratic institutions and democratic mechanisms with meritocratic mechanisms. Countries that have not adopted independent central banks, most importantly China, should make the leap. Governments should generally avoid referenda, but if they must use them, they should apply very stringent criteria for
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/faculty/luigi-zingales/research/pellegrinozingalesdiagnosingtheitaliandisease512019.pdf. I am most grateful to Professor Zingales for sending me this paper 7 Alberto Alesina and Lawrence H. Summers, ‘Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 25 (2) (1993), pp. 151–62 8 Garett Jones, 10% Less Democracy: Why
What's Wrong With Economics: A Primer for the Perplexed
by Robert Skidelsky · 3 Mar 2020 · 290pp · 76,216 words
it not as connected to ideology or politics but to something objective like physics or chemistry. It is surely no coincidence that the policy of central bank independence depends largely on the acceptance that economics is a science, and thus the decisions of a central bank are technical, rather than political, in nature
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