by Steven Kotler · 4 Mar 2014 · 330pp · 88,445 words
of the problem—even when everything goes right, things go wrong. Walking this path demands constantly increasing the challenges we face. We are climbing a ladder of escalating risk—with this ladder being the first of the dangers encountered on the flow path. Continuously pushing on the challenge/skill ratio means it’s
by Jackson Lears
War (1960) and On Escalation (1965), Kahn claimed that both sides, out of self-interest, would produce decisions through algorithmic rules—every step up the ladder of escalation would be taken in accordance with axiomatic, formal rationality. (As in free-market ideology, self-interest became the stabilizing force that somehow automatically kept the
by Stross, Charles · 14 Jan 2010 · 366pp · 107,145 words
Metropolitan Police. "MAGINOT BLUE STARS are in the loop and ready to provide covering fire if we need to go above Rung Five." The notional ladder of escalation's rungs are denominated in steps looted from Herman Kahn's infamous theory of strategic conflict: in a good old-fashioned war, Rung Five would
by Richard A. Clarke and Robert Knake · 15 Dec 2010 · 282pp · 92,998 words
incommensurate, however, adds to deterrence. In nuclear strategy this idea was called “escalation dominance”—responding to a lower-level attack by moving rapidly up the escalation ladder and then saying that the hostilities must end. It sends the message that you are not willing to engage in some prolonged, slow-bleeding conflict
by Graham Allison · 29 May 2017 · 518pp · 128,324 words
an orchestra of engagement, one they may use preemptively to surprise a stronger opponent who would not have done likewise. SPARKS, BACKGROUND CONDITIONS, ACCELERANTS, AND ESCALATION LADDERS In war scenarios, analysts use basic concepts familiar from the US Forest Service. Arsonists cause only a small fraction of fires. Discarded cigarettes, smoldering campfires
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. In the 1960s, futurist Herman Kahn (one of the Cold War strategists parodied by Peter Sellers’s movie character Dr. Strangelove) proposed a 44-rung escalation ladder from “subcrisis maneuvering” up to full-scale nuclear war.27 Kahn’s first rung was the “ostensible crisis”—the spark. He explained that in a
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see the US attack on its forces as deliberate and retaliate. Unaware that they have killed Chinese troops, US commanders would respond, moving up the escalation ladder. North Korea’s increasingly sophisticated intermediate-range missiles serve as the driver for a second sequence. As North Korea descends into chaos following Kim’s
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intellectual property, including telecommunications company Huawei and appliance manufacturer Midea. China retaliates with its own tariffs on equivalent American products. As they move up this escalation ladder, US financial markets suffer a series of cyber glitches similar to the 2010 “flash crash” when high-frequency traders caused the stock market to lose
by Lawrence Freedman · 31 Oct 2013 · 1,073pp · 314,528 words
was transformed from a hopelessly unruly process to one that might be tamed and possibly manipulated. In his 1965 book On Escalation, he introduced the “escalation ladder” with sixteen thresholds and forty-four steps. For most, the striking feature of the book was the possibility of anyone coming up with almost thirty
by Edward Fishman · 25 Feb 2025 · 884pp · 221,861 words
Russian flag over Kyiv within forty-eight hours of the first combat operations. “Unlike in 2014, we can’t afford to think about a gradual escalation ladder,” Singh warned his international colleagues in Rome. “We need to start at the very top.” They did, however, have the luxury of advance warning and
by Keir Giles · 24 Oct 2024 · 296pp · 81,440 words
country has not yet moved to a war footing. In May 2024, Heiskanen said that Finland was at step three out of nine on its escalation ladder. For instance, although it had significantly increased production of ammunition after 2022 – now making five times the shells it did just five years ago and
by Henry A Kissinger, Eric Schmidt and Daniel Huttenlocher · 2 Nov 2021 · 194pp · 57,434 words
basic factors a matter of debate—such as whether a conflict has begun, with whom or what the conflict engages, and how far up the escalation ladder the conflict between the parties may be. In that sense, major countries are engaged in a kind of cyber conflict now, though one without a
by Annie Jacobsen · 25 Mar 2024 · 444pp · 105,807 words
weapon against us, we launch one back,” says General Hyten. “They launch another, we launch another. They launch two, we launch two.” It’s an “escalation ladder,” Hyten says. The STRATCOM commander in this scenario hustles into the underground Battle Deck, a 1,000-square-foot, concrete-walled room. His eyes focus
by Sean McFate · 22 Jan 2019 · 330pp · 83,319 words
by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares · 15 Sep 2025 · 215pp · 64,699 words
by Ed Offley · 25 Mar 2014 · 309pp · 84,539 words
by Kim Stanley Robinson · 23 Oct 1993 · 746pp · 239,969 words
by Ronald J. Deibert · 13 May 2013 · 317pp · 98,745 words
by Ernest Cline · 15 Feb 2011 · 458pp · 137,960 words