first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard Concepts

The Road Ahead

by Bill Gates, Nathan Myhrvold and Peter Rinearson · 15 Nov 1995 · 317pp · 101,074 words

he asked the man to name any reward. "Your Majesty," said the minister, "I ask that you give me one grain of wheat for the first square of the chessboard, two grains for the second square, four grains for the third, and so on, doubling the number of grains each time until all

Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think

by Hans Rosling, Ola Rosling and Anna Rosling Rönnlund · 2 Apr 2018 · 288pp · 85,073 words

had first learned about the effect of doubling at school. In the Indian legend, the Lord Krishna asks for one grain of rice on the first square of the chessboard, then two grains on the second square, four grains on the third square, then eight, and so on, doubling the number of grains

The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation

by Carl Benedikt Frey · 17 Jun 2019 · 626pp · 167,836 words

far greater than the experience any professional player could accumulate in a lifetime. The event marks what Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee have called the “second half of the chessboard.”5 As Scientific American marveled, “An era is over and a new one is beginning. The methods underlying AlphaGo, and its recent victory

Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution Is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy

by Erik Brynjolfsson · 23 Jan 2012 · 72pp · 21,361 words

, Andrew. II. Title. eBooks created by www.ebookconversion.com Contents 1. Technology’s Influence on Employment and the Economy 2. Humanity and Technology on the Second Half of the Chessboard 3. Creative Destruction: The Economics of Accelerating Technology and Disappearing Jobs 4. What Is to Be Done? Prescriptions and Recommendations 5. Conclusion: The

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ahead with machines instead of racing against them. Here’s how we’ll proceed through the rest of this book: Humanity and Technology on the Second Half of the Chessboard Why are computers racing ahead of workers now? And what, if anything, can be done about it? Chapter 2 discusses digital technology, giving

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to do so. We are strong digital optimists, and we want to convince you to be one, too. Chapter 2. Humanity and Technology on the Second Half of the Chessboard Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. —Arthur C. Clarke, 1962 We used to be pretty confident that we knew the relative

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! Underneath his written response to the tournament’s last question, he added, “I for one welcome our new computer overlords.” Moore’s Law and the Second Half of the Chessboard Where did these overlords come from? How has science fiction become business reality so quickly? Two concepts are essential for understanding this remarkable

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his own reward. The clever man asks for a quantity of rice to be determined as follows: one grain of rice is placed on the first square of the chessboard, two grains on the second, four on the third, and so on, with each square receiving twice as many grains as the previous

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take notice. But the emperor could still remain an emperor. And the inventor could still retain his head. It was as they headed into the second half of the chessboard that at least one of them got into trouble. Kurzweil’s point is that constant doubling, reflecting exponential growth, is deceptive because it

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initially unremarkable. Exponential increases initially look a lot like standard linear ones, but they’re not. As time goes by—as we move into the second half of the chessboard—exponential growth confounds our intuition and expectations. It accelerates far past linear growth, yielding Everest-sized piles of rice and computers that can

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accomplish previously impossible tasks. So where are we in the history of business use of computers? Are we in the second half of the chessboard yet? This is an impossible question to answer precisely, of course, but a reasonable estimate yields an intriguing conclusion. The U.S. Bureau

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let’s take the standard 18 months as the Moore’s Law doubling period. Thirty-two doublings then take us to 2006 and to the second half of the chessboard. Advances like the Google autonomous car, Watson the Jeopardy! champion supercomputer, and high-quality instantaneous machine translation, then, can be seen as the

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stay connected from the road, and tablet computers now provide much of the functionality of PCs. The innovations we’re starting to see in the second half of the chessboard will also be folded into this ongoing work of business invention. In fact, they already are. The GeoFluent offering from Lionbridge has brought

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influencing behavior can be amazingly complex. But it’s also true, as the examples in this chapter show, that as we move deeper into the second half of the chessboard, computers are rapidly getting better at both of these skills. We’re starting to see evidence that this digital progress is affecting the

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are now so amenable to automation, are any human skills immune? Do people have any sustainable comparative advantage as we head ever deeper into the second half of the chessboard? In the physical domain, it seems that we do for the time being. Humanoid robots are still quite primitive, with poor fine motor

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are now demonstrating skills and abilities that used to belong exclusively to human workers. This trend will only accelerate as we move deeper into the second half of the chessboard. What are the economic implications of this phenomenon? We’ll turn our attention to this topic in the next chapter. * * * 1 To be

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an artifact of the business cycle but rather a symptom of a deeper structural change in the nature of production. As technology accelerates on the second half of the chessboard, so will the economic mismatches, undermining our social contract and ultimately hurting both rich and poor, not just the first waves of unemployed

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could have remained employed. But that wage was so low that it did not pay for their feed. As technology continues to advance in the second half of the chessboard, taking on jobs and tasks that used to belong only to human workers, one can imagine a time in the future when more

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% of the labor force involved in information processing tasks but also to more and more of the remaining 40%. As the technology moves into the second half of the chessboard, each successive doubling in power will increase the number of applications where it can affect work and employment. As a result, our skills

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ever faster, smaller, more energy efficient, and cheaper over time. We are confident that these trends will continue even as we move deeper into the second half of the chessboard. Digital progress, in fact, is so rapid and relentless that people and organizations are having a hard time keeping up. So in this

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so that we all benefit from those talents and creativity. Investing in Human Capital Technology races ahead ever faster as we move deeper into the second half of the chessboard. To keep up, we need not only organizational innovation, orchestrated by entrepreneurs, but also a second broad strategy: investments in the complementary human

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now been substituting for human skills and workers and slowing median incomes and job growth in the United States. As we head deeper into the second half of the chessboard—into the period where continuing exponential increases in computing power yield astonishing results—we expect that economic disruptions will only grow as well

The Silent Intelligence: The Internet of Things

by Daniel Kellmereit and Daniel Obodovski · 19 Sep 2013 · 138pp · 40,787 words

told the man to name his reward. The man asked for his reward in an amount of rice — that one grain be placed on the first square of the chessboard, two on the second, four on the third, and so on — doubling the number of grains on each subsequent square. Not being a

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make the point that “exponential increases initially look a lot like linear, but they are not. As time goes by — as we move into the second half of the chessboard — exponential growth confounds our intuition and expectations.” As a result, in the early stages of a project or a new technology, it’s

Scale: The Universal Laws of Growth, Innovation, Sustainability, and the Pace of Life in Organisms, Cities, Economies, and Companies

by Geoffrey West · 15 May 2017 · 578pp · 168,350 words

the form of grains of rice. However, these were to be apportioned in the following manner: he would receive 1 grain of rice on the first square of the chessboard, 2 grains on the second, 4 on the third, 8 on the fourth, 16 on the fifth, and so on, doubling the amount

Thank You for Being Late: An Optimist's Guide to Thriving in the Age of Accelerations

by Thomas L. Friedman · 22 Nov 2016 · 602pp · 177,874 words

eventually you start to see some very funky things that you have never seen before. The authors argued that Moore’s law just entered the “second half of the chessboard,” where the doubling has gotten so big and fast we’re starting to see stuff that is fundamentally different in power and capability

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technology—but I think the Machine today is even more complicated. That’s because it’s not just pure technological change that has hit the second half of the chessboard. It is also two other giant forces: accelerations in the Market and in Mother Nature. “The Market” is my shorthand for the acceleration

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reaches of computational possibility, to something a teenager could reasonably expect to find under the Christmas tree. Now that Moore’s law has entered the second half of the chessboard, how much farther can it go? A microchip, or chip, as we said, is made up of transistors, which are tiny switches; these

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years ago. Now it is available to any company. And therein lies a really important story about how a combination of storage chips hitting the second half of the chessboard and a software breakthrough named after a toy elephant put the “big” into “big data” analytics. Microchips, as we have noted, are simply

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so, from 2007 onward, we have seen the birth of the “Cognitive Era” of computing. It could happen only after Moore’s law entered the second half of the chessboard and gave us sufficient power to digitize almost everything imaginable—words, photos, data, spreadsheets, voice, video, and music—as well as the capacity

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it’s the future that is much closer than you think.” The Designers It is fun to be around really, really creative makers in the second half of the chessboard, to see what they can do, as individuals, with all of the empowering tools that have been enabled by the supernova. I met

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invented by others, and APIs enabled them to partner with everyone. And the Moore’s law advances in storage, computing, and telecommunications deep into the second half of the chessboard enabled them to be competitive overnight. Jeremy King, chief technology officer for Walmart eCommerce, had previously been part of the tech team that

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us that when it comes to climate change, biodiversity loss, and population growth, particularly in the most vulnerable countries, Mother Nature has also entered the second half of the chessboard, just like Moore’s law and the Market. And in many ways, she has been driven there by the multiple accelerations in technology

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nitrogen cycle more dramatically than any event in 2.5 billion years” (italics added). And sometimes the records being broken as Mother Nature enters the second half of the chessboard are so numerous and profound, government agencies tracking them seem to run out of even climate-speak to describe the black elephants they

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powerful impact we can have on the environment when the Market, Mother Nature, and Moore’s law together all continue accelerating at once in the second half of the chessboard. To be blunt, adds Adam Sweidan, “we have reaped the rewards of technological progress without due concern for its unintended consequences.” All living

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you to be fast and smart.” This is only going to become more true as Moore’s law and the Market move deeper into the second half of the chessboard. Lovins argues: Let’s say you have two genomes. And genome A has one gene that is perfectly adapted for today’s system

The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies

by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee · 20 Jan 2014 · 339pp · 88,732 words

could have. Chapter 1 THE BIG STORIES Chapter 2 THE SKILLS OF THE NEW MACHINES: TECHNOLOGY RACES AHEAD Chapter 3 MOORE’S LAW AND THE SECOND HALF OF THE CHESSBOARD Chapter 4 THE DIGITIZATION OF JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING Chapter 5 INNOVATION: DECLINING OR RECOMBINING? Chapter 6 ARTIFICIAL AND HUMAN INTELLIGENCE IN THE SECOND

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their speed is easier to evaluate; the bigger the exponent, the faster they grow, and the steeper the line. Impoverished Emperors, Headless Inventors, and the Second Half of the Chessboard Our brains are not well equipped to understand sustained exponential growth. In particular, we severely underestimate how big the numbers can get. Inventor

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take notice. But the emperor could still remain an emperor. And the inventor could still retain his head. It was as they headed into the second half of the chessboard that at least one of them got into trouble.8 Kurzweil’s great insight is that while numbers do get large in the

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intuition. We experience it when harvesting grain, assessing the fortunes of the world’s richest people today, or tallying up national debt levels. In the second half of the chessboard, however—as numbers mount into trillions, quadrillions, and quintillions—we lose all sense of them. We also lose sense of how quickly numbers

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’s Law entered the business world, and used eighteen months as the doubling period. After thirty-two of these doublings, U.S. businesses entered the second half of the chessboard when it comes to the use of digital gear. That was in 2006. Of course, this calculation is just a fun little exercise

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: that exponential growth eventually leads to staggeringly big numbers, ones that leave our intuition and experience behind. In other words, things get weird in the second half of the chessboard. And like the emperor, most of us have trouble keeping up. One of the things that sets the second machine age apart is

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how quickly that second half of the chessboard can arrive. We’re not claiming that no other technology has ever improved exponentially. In fact, after the one-time burst of improvement

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small, so it only went through about three or four doublings in efficiency during that period.9 It would take a millennium to reach the second half of the chessboard at that rate. In the second machine age, the doublings happen much faster and exponential growth is much more salient. Second-Half Technologies

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of Moore’s Law has added up to the point that we’re now in a different regime of computing: we’re now in the second half of the chessboard. The innovations we described in the previous chapter—cars that drive themselves in traffic; Jeopardy!-champion supercomputers; auto-generated news stories; cheap, flexible

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been a decade earlier. As all of these innovations show, exponential progress allows technology to keep racing ahead and makes science fiction reality in the second half of the chessboard. Not Just for Computers Anymore: The Spread of Moore’s Law Another comparison across computer generations highlights not only the power of Moore

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first element of our three-part explanation of why we’re now in the second machine age: steady exponential improvement has brought us into the second half of the chessboard—into a time when what’s come before is no longer a particularly reliable guide to what will happen next. The accumulated doubling

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in degree (in other words, more of the same) becomes a difference in kind (in other words, different than anything else). The story of the second half of the chessboard alerts us that we should be aware that enough exponential progress can take us to astonishing places. Multiple recent examples convince us that

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previous chapter will help boost the bounty and reduce or reverse the spread. But as we move deeper into the second machine age and the second half of the chessboard, will the Econ 101 playbook be enough to maintain healthy wage and job prospects? As we look further ahead—into the 2020s and

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Soar Even Higher with 3D Printing,” 2013, http://www.stratasys.com/resources/case-studies/aerospace/nasa-mars-rover. Chapter 3 MOORE’S LAW AND THE SECOND HALF OF THE CHESSBOARD 1. G. E. Moore, “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits,” Electronics 38, no. 8 (April 19, 1965): 114–17, doi:10.1109/jproc

The 100-Year Life: Living and Working in an Age of Longevity

by Lynda Gratton and Andrew Scott · 1 Jun 2016 · 344pp · 94,332 words

Andrew McAfee, ‘Computers and other digital advances are doing for mental power … what the steam engine and its descendants did for muscle power’.11 The second half of the chessboard In 1965, Intel’s Geoffrey E. Moore conjectured that the processing power of semi-conductors would double roughly every two years and, to

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, this has been an extraordinarily accurate prediction. As a consequence of this exponential growth, ‘Second Machine Age’ proponents argue that we are now in the ‘second half of the chessboard’. This is a reference to a fable concerning a king in India who, bored with all his existing pastimes, set a challenge to

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the challenge, running out before the thirtieth square (before the second half of the chessboard). To meet the inventor’s demand the king would have to provide a mountain of rice larger than Mount Everest – nearly 18.5 quintillion grains. On the first square of the chessboard there is one grain of rice, and by the

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another routine task which has required knowledge and pattern recognition skills that have to date proved beyond computers. However, yet again, the implications of the second half of the chessboard is that this is no longer the case. Famously IBM’s supercomputer Watson is now performing oncology diagnosis. As computing power increases, so

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here routine tasks here–here Rule of here here Sabbath, the here sabbaticals here–here Save More Tomorrow (SMarT plan) here–here Scharmer, Otto here second half of the chessboard here–here segregation of the ages here–here, here–here, here, here–here self-control here–here, here–here age process algorithms here

Seventeen Contradictions and the End of Capitalism

by David Harvey · 3 Apr 2014 · 464pp · 116,945 words

exponential growth. An Indian king wished to reward the inventor of the game of chess. The inventor asked for one grain of rice on the first square of the chessboard and that the amount be doubled from one square to the next until all the squares were covered. The king readily agreed, since

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, profitable investment opportunities of close to $3 trillion will be needed. Thereafter the numbers become astronomical. It is as if we are on the twenty-first square of the chessboard and cannot get off. It just does not look a feasible growth trajectory, at least from where we sit now. Imagined physically, the