fixed income

Empire of the Fund: The Way We Save Now

by William A. Birdthistle  · 15 May 2016  · 375pp  · 106,189 words

higher price for portfolio securities, could it? Let’s consult the professionals. The UBS Investments In June 2008, UBS Global Asset Management purchased 54 complex fixed-income securities for the portfolios of various mutual funds that it advised. UBS—or, rather, the UBS funds—paid a total of $22 million for those

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savings whenever they want.) Throughout those decades, the fund itself—and not the investor—makes the prudent adjustments from holding primarily equity investments to primarily fixed-income investments as the target date approaches. This change in allocations over time is known as the fund’s glide path. When depicted graphically, as in

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target date ought to have almost completed its glide path. And a fund that had shifted almost entirely away from risky equities and into safer fixed-income investments should have been largely insulated from the turmoil of 2008’s collapsing stock markets. So, what could account for these precipitous failures on the

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enjoyed a long, bullish phase for debt instruments? If a bearish correction, or a black swan,26 or some other animal unfriendly to investors strikes fixed-income investments, then target-date funds could be savaged. And, ironically, the longer the debt appears safe, the more complacent investors will become. And the more

Lost at Sea: Poverty and Paradise Collide at the Edge of America

by Joe Kloc  · 14 Apr 2025  · 249pp  · 71,929 words

like this to the unhoused once a week, at church. “It costs $150. By the time I add everything, it’s almost more than my fixed income. The reason I can do it is I don’t pay rent or a mortgage or taxes. I feed people.” He couldn’t really make

Corporate Finance: Theory and Practice

by Pierre Vernimmen, Pascal Quiry, Maurizio Dallocchio, Yann le Fur and Antonio Salvi  · 16 Oct 2017  · 1,544pp  · 391,691 words

the system is flawed because the real return to investors is zero or negative. Their savings are insufficiently rewarded, particularly if they have invested in fixed-income vehicles. The savings rate in a credit-based economy is usually low. The savings that do exist typically flow into tangible assets and real property

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risky and the β of Orange is now below 1. 2. Parameters behind beta By definition, the market b is equal to 1. β of fixed-income securities ranges from about 0 to 0.5. The β of equities is usually higher than 0.5, and normally between 0.5 and 1

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and valuation of securities After having studied the yield curve, it is easier to understand that the discounting of all the cash flows from a fixed-income security at a single rate, regardless of the period when they are paid, is an oversimplification, although this is the method that will be used

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throughout this text for stocks and capital expenditure. It would be wrong to use it for fixed-income securities. In order to be more rigorous, it is necessary to discount each flow with the interest rate of the yield curve corresponding to its

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conditions that are very likely to have changed since the original issue. Section 20.3 Floating-rate bonds So far we have looked only at fixed-income debt securities. The cash flow schedule for these securities is laid down clearly when they are issued, whereas the securities that we will be describing

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; market rates: the lower the level of market rates, the higher a bond’s modified duration. Modified duration represents an investment tool used systematically by fixed-income portfolio managers. If they anticipate a decline in interest rates, they opt for bonds with a higher modified duration, i.e. a longer time to

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fall in interest rates leads to a loss on the reinvestment of coupons and to a capital gain. Intuitively, it seems clear that for any fixed-income debt portfolio or security, there is a period over which: the loss on the reinvestment of coupons will be offset by the capital gain on

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. Agrawal, C. Mann, Explaining the rate spread on corporate bonds, Journal of Finance, 56(1), 247–278, February 2001. F. Fabozzi, The Handbook of European Fixed Income Securities, 8th edn, McGraw-Hill, 2011. J. Finnerty, D. Emery, Debt Management: A Practitioner’s Guide, Oxford University Press, 2001. J. Hand, R. Holthausen, R

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yield spreads: Default risk or liquidity? New evidence from the credit default swap market, Journal of Finance, 60(5), 2213–2247, October 2005. P. Veronesi, Fixed Income Securities: Valuation, Risk, and Risk Management, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2010. And also: www.fitchratings.com www.moodys.com www.standardandpoors.com www.spreadresearch.com

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. Stein, Convertible bonds as backdoor equity financing, Journal of Financial Economics, 32(1), 3–21, August 1992. On exchangeable bonds: F. Fabozzi, The Handbook of Fixed Income Securities, 8th edn, McGraw-Hill, 2011. On hybrid securities: F. Black, M. Scholes, The pricing of options and corporate liabilities, Journal of Political Economy, 81

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, who coordinates all aspects of an offering; the global coordinator is also lead manager and usually serves as lead and book-runner as well. For fixed-income issues, the global coordinator is called the arranger; the lead manager is responsible for preparing and executing the deal. The lead helps choose the syndicate

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de l’association française de finance, 31(2), 51–92, December 2010. J. Helwege, P. Kleiman, The pricing of high-yield debt IPOs, Journal of Fixed Income, 8(2), 61–68, September 1998. R. Taggart, The growing role of junk bonds in corporate finance, in D. Chew (Ed.), The New Corporate Finance

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on corporate investment, Journal of Finance, 54(6), 1939–1967, December 1999. P. Fernandez, Levered and unlevered beta, Journal of Applied Finance, 2005. K. Garbade, Fixed Income Analytics, MIT Press, 2002. L. Jui, R. Merton, Z. Bodie, Does a firm’s equity returns reflect the risk of its pension plan?, Journal of

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in market value of the underlying asset (or a fall in interest rates). The notion of position is very important for banks operating on the fixed-income and currency markets. Generally speaking, traders are allowed to keep a given amount in an open position, depending on their expectations. However, clients buy and

Stigum's Money Market, 4E

by Marcia Stigum and Anthony Crescenzi  · 9 Feb 2007  · 1,202pp  · 424,886 words

model for options pricing. This model, which was developed for the pricing of options on equities, must be modified in order to be applied to fixed-income securities. Also, theoreticians—rocket scientists or quants to the Street—are constantly tinkering with this model to improve its accuracy and extend its reach.

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in immunizing portfolios, in hedging trading positions, in comparing investment alternatives, and in performing various other analyses. Duration has become a key measurement for fixed-income securities; and it is a key element in the investment decision-making process. It’s impossible to derive results concerning duration without using simple calculus

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sentiment can occur in any market, including the bond market in which tracking market sentiment is helped immensely by tracking the collective duration levels of fixed-income portfolios. Since the bond market is largely an institutional business, aggregate duration surveys conducted by Wall Street firms and economic research firms are a

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microcosm of the risk profiles of the universe of fixed-income portfolios. Indeed, most duration surveys include portfolios that have a combined total of several hundred billion dollars or more in assets. The best and

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curve to display over its entire price-yield range. REVIEW IN BRIEF • Duration and convexity are key considerations in the decision to buy and sell fixed-income securities. • Duration measures a bond’s price sensitivity to changes in interest rates, although not precisely. Nevertheless, duration provides a close approximation if the

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when calculating price changes that will occur when yield changes are large. • Duration can be used as a gauge of market sentiment, which can help fixed-income portfolio managers in the investment decision-making process. PART TWO The Major Players Copyright © 2007, 1990, 1983, 1978 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.

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of risk that a trading operation can take. These can be defined as either market risks or credit risks. In a money market or other fixed-income portfolio, these risks can be defined by portfolio duration, average maturity, convexity, foreign-exchange exposure, or credit ratings, for example. In a large organization

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used for a variety of purposes other than as pure investments. One of these is for the financing of Wall Street’s large holdings of fixed-income securities. The Street’s primary dealers finance their holdings via repurchase agreements (repos), which are essentially short-term loans secured by collateral deemed safe

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a notional value of over $200 billion (2 million contracts × $100,000 of notional value per contract). No other futures contract on any other fixed-income security comes close. For example, the number of federal agency futures outstanding is scant at only a few thousand contracts. Many loans granted to both

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Greenspan’s tenure had been institutionalized. The Fed’s Impact on Spread Products The Federal Reserve can greatly influence the performance of spread products, or fixed-income securities other than Treasuries such as agency securities, corporate bonds, mortgage-backed securities, and emerging markets securities. These securities are called “spread” products because

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, or, as it is formally called, the Bloomberg Professional system, has arguably been the most important information, analytics, and trading system used by the fixed-income community over the past two decades. The Bloomberg system is crammed with a deep database and functionality, but in its infancy it was initially blocked

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a vital role in the money market, connecting participants throughout the world. • Information, analytics, and trading systems such as Bloomberg are widely used in the fixed-income community, providing an array of tools for professionals. CHAPTER 11 The Investors: Running a Short-Term Portfolio Copyright © 2007, 1990, 1983, 1978 by The

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U.S. Aggregate Index. Indeed, Lehman claims that over 90% of U.S. investors use one or more of its fixed-income benchmarks to assist in analyzing their portfolios. Fixed-income managers use the indices largely to compare how their portfolios are constructed and to compare performance. The indices are an important resource

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knowledgeably buy a lesser-grade commercial paper that other portfolio managers wouldn’t touch. Portfolio managers face many choices with respect to what type of fixed-income security they should buy. The decision often rests on expectations regarding the economy and hence the outlook for monetary policy. 2 Commercial paper, as

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$2.29 trillion in reverses. During the quarter, over $99.5 trillion in repo trades were submitted by the Government Securities Division of the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation (FICC), an SEC-registered clearing agency that facilitates orderly settlements in the U.S. government securities market and tracks repo trades settled through

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two things. First, dealers were running huge matched books. Second, in March 2006, dealers were borrowing money to fund other activities including their holdings in fixed-income securities. Data from the New York Fed, which collects such statistics on a weekly basis, show that dealers were short $113 billion Treasuries, but

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appear to suggest that dealer financing has increased sharply during the period. Adrian and Fleming counter this simplistic analysis, arguing that dealer borrowing involving fixed-income securities grew only modestly in recent years and that the increase is unrelated to an increase in net positions held.12 The researchers assert that

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Current Issues in Economics and Finance, March 2005. sharp increase in net repo financing—the net amount of money primary dealers borrow through repos on fixed-income securities (calculated as repos minus reverses)—net repo financing is an incomplete and potentially misleading measure of dealer leverage. One reason is that net repo

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financing, which is measured as securities out minus securities in. Net financing measures the net amount of funds that primary dealers borrow through all fixed-income security financing transactions. Figure 13.11 shows the sharp difference between the amount of net repo financing and net financing during the period 1994–2004

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amount of bond issuance increased compared to the previous year, a factor that tends to boost volume. Record amounts of foreign purchases of U.S. fixed-income assets also boosted volume. Over time, three of the biggest factors affecting trading volume in Treasuries include: the Federal Reserve, the state of the

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half of Treasuries are held by foreign investors. Another factor that boosts Treasury volume is its transparency. Treasury prices are more transparent than any other fixed-income instrument, meaning that both the price and size of the bids and offers for Treasury securities are readily discerned. Moreover, the bid and offer

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prices for Treasuries tend to be quite narrow relative to other fixed-income securities, which also boost their attractiveness. In fact, in a study the Federal Reserve estimates that the average bid-ask spread for Treasuries is

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their trading activities, cash, futures, and financing market positions in Treasury and other securities. Primary dealers tend to carry larger amounts of inventories of fixed-income securities and a greater variety of these securities. The dealers also tend to have a greater ability than smaller market participants to participate in offerings

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bidders take delivery of their Treasury securities directly from the Treasury, although about 75% of all auction deliveries are made to dealers indirectly through the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation (FICC), which is a clearing agency registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission that acts as the central clearing corporation for Treasury

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their respective clearing banks. Now, trades done through brokers are to be cleared via a netting process run by the Government Securities Division of the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation, which we discussed earlier. The Government Securities Division clears, nets, settles, and manages risk arising from a broad range of U.S.

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type of system, the dealers act as principals, meaning that they buy and sell securities for their own account. The full range of major fixed-income products are currently being offered through this system. This system enables investors to peruse a dealer’s inventory of bonds, thereby helping customers locate bonds

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led by the explosive growth of TradeWeb, a New York-based online trading firm that enables institutional customers to buy and sell various types of fixed-income securities electronically with multiple primary dealers. In early 2006, over 2,200 of the largest buy-side institutions were using TradeWeb to both price

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themselves reports on inflation. Inflation, after all, is the bane of the bond market because it erodes the value of the cash flows associated with fixed-income securities. Yields are therefore greatly affected by inflation expectations, which are influenced daily by many factors. The inflation data are enormously influential on the

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7% would be the more attractive investment. Factors That Cause Real Yields to Fluctuate There are many factors that determine the real yield on a fixed-income security. (For simplicity, we again focus on government bonds rather than corporate and other types.) Here is the list of factors: • Inflation expectations • Opportunity

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much more than bills, at $997 billion, and bonds, at $526 billion. • Primary dealers customarily hold net short positions in Treasuries as hedges against other fixed-income securities that they hold. Indeed, dealers were net short in every week during the 4½ years ending March 2006. • In various studies, the yield curve

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accelerated pace at which federal regulators began to approve new contracts led to a rapid expansion in the menu of securities—financial futures, options on fixed-income securities, and options on futures—being traded. The specifications of the principal financial futures contracts and of options on those contracts that are traded

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. Commercial traders in Treasuries are the true end users of the contracts: the hedgers and those who are in the business of buying and selling fixed-income securities. Commercial traders are known as “smart money.” They can be primary dealers, insurance companies, pension funds, and the like. Noncommercials are considered speculators.

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speculative traders have relatively less information in hand than do commercial traders with respect to market fundamentals and the true level of underlying demand for fixed-income securities. In addition, speculators frequently have a herd mentality and are therefore more likely to alter their positions when commercial players ignite a change

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segments of the bond market, including the mortgage and corporate securities markets. • Futures are also used as a vehicle for boosting the returns of fixed-income portfolios via strategies designed to take advantage of volatility in the interest-rate environment, yield curve shifts, and so on. Calendar spreads and the NOB

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Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Alex Edmans is a Ph.D. candidate in financial economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and previously worked in both fixed income and investment banking for Morgan Stanley. FIGURE 17.1 Puts and calls: rights, contingent obligations, and features (European call) or up to the maturity

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May 2005, a number of prominent international bond issuers known to draw significant buying interest from the world’s central banks, issued more SEC-registered fixed-income securities than nonregis-tered securities (Table 18.1). For example, the Republic of Italy registered over 90% of its dollar issues during the period.

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terms. For issuers, the growth of the asset-backed securities market has significantly expanded the pool of funding sources to include the broad array of fixed-income investors, a market consisting of $26 trillion in mid-2006. Commercial banks have become increasingly reliant upon securitization as a way of diversifying their

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for all projects, debt issuance costs, and the cost of purchasing commercial bond insurance. Moving to Book Entry and Real-Time Reporting As with other fixed-income securities, municipal notes used to be issued as bearer notes (Figure 25.1). For securities of such short duration, registration wasn’t worth the

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free money fund companies to purchase securities from their portfolios to prevent losses to investors. Earlier in 1994, which was a tumultuous year in the fixed-income markets with yields rising sharply, more than 20 money funds were negatively impacted by investments in money market derivatives. Many of these funds needed

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trading. actuals: The cash commodity as opposed to the futures contract. actual/360: The day-count convention applied to the calculation of interest on a fixed-income security. Calculations are based on a 360-day calendar. This day-count convention is applied in the Eurosystem’s monetary policy operations. ACUs (Asian

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provision that permits conversion to the issuer’s common stock at some fixed exchange ratio. convexity: The slope of the price-yield relationship for a fixed-income security. Convexity is normally positive, but it can be negative. corporate bond equivalent: See equivalent bond yield. corporate taxable equivalent: Rate of return required

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selling the proceeds of the investment forward for dollars. credit default swap (CDS): A credit derivative that enables parties to exchange the credit risk of fixed-income securities. CDS buyers purchase protection against a bond’s default, paying a fee to protection sellers. credit enhancement: The backing of paper with collateral,

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bids through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as well as any customer who submits through a primary dealer. inflation-index security: A fixed-income security whose cash flows and principal value are linked to an inflation index such as to a particular consumer price index. interbank: When interbank refers

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Fedwire Funds Transfer Service vs. CHIPS FFB (see Federal Financing Bank) FHCs (see financial holding companies) FHLB (see Federal Home Loan Bank System) FICC (see Fixed Income Clearing Corporation) FICO (see Financing Corporation) Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) asset-backed paper loan participations financial futures (see also futures) financial holding companies (

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financial stability, Fed Financing Corporation (FICO) S&L crisis financing gap financing use, Treasury fine-tuning quotes, brokers’ market First Report on the Public Credit Fixed Income Clearing Corporation (FICC), Treasury securities float, Fed floating-rate CDs floating-rate MTNs floating-to-floating swaps, money market swaps flower bonds, Treasury securities FOMC

Principles of Corporate Finance

by Richard A. Brealey, Stewart C. Myers and Franklin Allen  · 15 Feb 2014

in such cases were called consols. Consols are perpetuities. These are bonds that the government is under no obligation to repay but that offer a fixed income for each year to perpetuity. The British government is still paying interest on consols issued all those years ago. The annual rate of return on

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debt maturing in a year or less. These short-term securities are known as Treasury bills. Treasury bonds, notes, and bills are traded in the fixed-income market. Let’s look at an example of a U.S. government bond. In 1985 the Treasury issued 11.25% notes maturing in 2015. These

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promising to pay higher rates of interest. ● ● ● ● ● FURTHER READING Two good general texts on fixed income markets are: F. J. Fabozzi and S. V. Mann, Handbook of Fixed Income Markets, 8th ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2011). S. Sundaresan, Fixed Income Markets and Their Derivatives, 3rd ed. (San Diego, CA: Academic Press, 2009). Schaefer’s paper

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nature of the inefficiency. Trading Opportunities—Are They Really There for Nonfinancial Corporations? Suppose that the treasurer’s staff in your firm notices mispricing in fixed-income or commodities markets, the kind of mispricing that a hedge fund would attempt to exploit in a convergence trade. Should the treasurer authorize the staff

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. Its competition included the trading desks of all the major investment banks, hedge funds, and fixed-income portfolio managers. P&G had no special insights or competitive advantages on the fixed-income playing field. There was no evident reason to expect positive NPV on the trades it committed to. Why was it trading at

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paper but are sold in a similar way. ● ● ● ● ● FURTHER READING A useful general work on debt securities is: F. J. Fabozzi (ed.), The Handbook of Fixed Income Securities, 8th ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2011). For nontechnical discussions of the pricing of convertible bonds and the reasons for their use, see: M

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pension plans) and wealthy individuals. In mid-2014 RA had about £1.1 billion under management, invested in a wide range of common-stock and fixed-income portfolios. Its management fees average 55 basis points (.55%), so RA’s total revenue for 2014 will be about .0055 × £1.1 billion = £6.05

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as time passes and interest rates change. Also explain why SPX’s proposal is not advisable for a conservative company like Tintagel. RA manages several fixed-income portfolios. For simplicity, you decide to propose a mix of the following three portfolios: • A portfolio of long-term government bonds with an average duration

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compensating balances and toward direct fees. 30-5 Marketable Securities In September 2011 Apple was sitting on an $81.6 billion mountain of cash and fixed income investments, amounting to 70% of the company’s total assets. Of this sum, $2.9 billion was kept as cash and the remainder was invested

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Finance 19 (Summer 2007), pp. 74–81. For descriptions of the money-market and short-term lending opportunities, see: F. J. Fabozzi, The Handbook of Fixed Income Securities, 8th ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2012). F. J. Fabozzi, S. V. Mann, and M. Choudhry, The Global Money Markets (New York: John Wiley

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-stage financing, 372 Fisher, A. C., 277n Fisher, F., 509n Fisher, Irving, 62–63, 699n Fitch credit ratings, 65–66, 595, 628n Fitzpatrick, Dan, 4n Fixed-income market, 47 Fixed-rate debt, 357 Flat (clean) price, 48n FleetBoston, 812 Fleet Financial Group, 812 Floating charge, 626 Floating-price convertibles, 622 Floating-rate

Financial Statement Analysis: A Practitioner's Guide

by Martin S. Fridson and Fernando Alvarez  · 31 May 2011

one-year projections and pro forma adjustments to current financial statements. Such exercises, however, represent nothing more than the foundation of a complete projection. A fixed-income investor buying a 30-year bond is certainly interested in the issuer's financial prospects beyond a 12-month horizon. Similarly, a substantial percentage of

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in a reduction of net leverage (defined as debt minus cash divided by EBITDA) from 2.58X to 1.41X. From the standpoint of the fixed-income investors, the picture does not look as bleak as it does to equity investors accustomed to seeing forecasts that show large, steady gains in earnings

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. Fixed-income investors are in fact the target of the analyst's research, with particular focus on the term loans of Dex One's subsidiaries, RHD, Dex

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, income statement, and statement of cash flows—yields valuable insights when studied through ratio analysis techniques, as well as when used in the evaluation of fixed-income securities. In each case, the analyst must temper any enthusiasm generated by a review of historical statements with caution based on a consideration of financial

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of a Conference Held in October 1987. Boston: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 1988. Fabozzi, Frank J., and T. Dessa Fabozzi (Eds.). The Handbook of Fixed Income Securities, 4th ed. Burr Ridge, IL: Irwin, 1995. Fridson, Martin S. High Yield Bonds: Identifying Value and Assessing Risk of Speculative-Grade Securities. Chicago: Probus

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, participants in the Institutional Investor All-America research survey ranked Fridson number one in high yield bond strategy. Fridson has served as president of the Fixed Income Analysts Society, governor of the Association for Investment Management and Research (now CFA Institute), and director of the New York Society of Security Analysts. Since

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Dealers Digest called him “perhaps the most well-known figure in the high yield world.” In 2000, Fridson became the youngest person inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Hall of Fame. The Financial Management Association named him Financial Executive of the Year in 2002. Fridson is the author of six books on

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1998. He has taught Financial Management, Long-Term Finance with an emphasis in Shareholder Value/Economic Value Added, Short-Term Finance and Cash Flow Management, Fixed Income Analysis, Investments, Financial Statement Analysis, and Portfolio Analysis and Management. He was affiliated with the Shulman Chartered Financial Analyst Review Program in Boston. He has

Debtor Nation: The History of America in Red Ink (Politics and Society in Modern America)

by Louis Hyman  · 3 Jan 2011

to lend money without incurring interest rate risk. Such adjustable rates shifted the risk of a rising interest rate to the borrowers, who, also with fixed incomes, would be even more unable to weather such a shift in their payments than institutions. In the early 1980s, adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) and secondary

Stocks for the Long Run, 4th Edition: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long Term Investment Strategies

by Jeremy J. Siegel  · 18 Dec 2007

Stability 9 Total Real Returns 11 Interpretation of Returns 12 Long-Term Returns 12 Short-Term Returns and Volatility 14 Real Returns on Fixed-Income Assets 14 The Fall in Fixed-Income Returns 15 The Equity Premium 16 Worldwide Equity and Bond Returns: Global Stocks for the Long Run 18 Conclusion: Stocks for the

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to more moderate levels. One can see that the level of interest rates is closely tied to the level of inflation. Understanding the returns on fixed-income assets therefore requires knowledge of how inflation is determined. THE END OF THE GOLD STANDARD AND PRICE STABILITY Consumer prices in the United States and

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, are insignificant when compared to the upward movement of equity values over time. In contrast to the remarkable stability of stock returns, real returns on fixed-income assets have declined markedly over time. In the first and even second subperiods, the annual returns on bonds and bills, although less than those on

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equities, were significantly positive. But since 1926, and especially since World War II, fixed-income assets have returned little after inflation. INTERPRETATION OF RETURNS Long-Term Returns The annual returns on U.S. stocks over the past two centuries are

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stocks, as of the end of 2006, near their long-term trends. REAL RETURNS ON FIXED-INCOME ASSETS As stable as the long-term real returns have been for equities, the same cannot be said of fixed-income assets. The nominal and real returns on both short-term and long-term bonds are reported

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so in Treasury bills. In contrast, it takes about 10 years to double purchasing power in stocks. The decline in the average real return on fixed-income securities is striking. In any 30-year period beginning with 1889, the average real rate of return on short-term government securities has exceeded 2

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4 percent, and it has exceeded 3 percent during only 22 such periods. CHAPTER 1 Stock and Bond Returns Since 1802 TABLE 15 1–2 Fixed-Income Returns, 1802 through December 2006 You have to go back more than 11⁄2 centuries to the period from 1831 through 1861 to find any

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which the return on either long- or short-term bonds exceeded that on equities. The dominance of stocks over fixed-income securities is overwhelming for investors with long horizons. THE FALL IN FIXED-INCOME RETURNS Although the returns on equities have fully compensated stock investors for the increased inflation since World War II, the

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returns on fixedincome securities have not. The change in the monetary standard from gold to paper had a far greater impact on the returns of fixed-income assets than on stocks. It is clear that the buyers of long-term bonds in the 1940s, 1950s, and early 1960s did not recognize the

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and 4 percent coupons ignoring a government policy that favored inflation? But there must have been other reasons for the decline in real returns on fixed-income assets. Theoretically, the unanticipated inflation of the postwar period should have had a significantly smaller effect on the real return of short-term bonds, such

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a high price for gaining short-term stability of their assets. THE EQUITY PREMIUM Whatever the reasons for the decline in the real return on fixed-income assets over the past century, it is very likely that the real returns on bonds will be higher on average in the future than they

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major disasters visited on many of these countries, such as war, hyperinflation, and depressions, all 16 countries offered substantially positive, after-inflation stock returns. Furthermore, fixed-income returns in countries that experienced major wartime dislocations, such as Italy, Germany, and Japan, were decidedly negative, so that the supe17 See Stephen J. Brown

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all investors in all countries. The superior performance of U.S. equities over the past two centuries is not a special case. Stocks have outperformed fixed-income assets in every country examined and often by an overwhelming margin. International studies have reinforced, not diminished, the case for equities. CONCLUSION: STOCKS FOR THE

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sample of history.” Yet one must start by analyzing the past in order to understand the future. The first chapter showed that not only have fixed-income returns lagged substantially behind those on equities but, because of the uncertainty of inflation, bonds can be quite risky for long-term investors. In this

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stocks. Note that the height of the bars, which measures the difference between best and worst returns, declines far more rapidly for equities than for fixed-income securities as the holding period increases. Stocks are unquestionably riskier than bonds or Treasury bills over one- and two-year periods. However, in every five

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returns for stocks remained comfortably ahead of inflation by 2.6 percent per year, a return that is not far from the average return on fixed-income assets. CHAPTER 2 Risk, Return, and Portfolio Allocation FIGURE 25 2–1 Maximum and Minimum Real Holding Period Returns, 1802 through December 2006 It is

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is 20 years, stock accumulations beat those in bonds by about twoto-one. Even 10 years after market peaks, stocks still have an advantage over fixed-income assets. Unless investors believe there is a high probability that they will need to liquidate their savings over the next 5 to 10 years to

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falls as the square root of the length of the holding period. 30 PART 1 The Verdict of History The standard deviation of returns for fixed-income assets, on the other hand, does not fall as fast as the random walk theory predicts. This is a manifestation of mean aversion of bond

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be correlated with labor income. 36 PART 1 The Verdict of History CONCLUSION No one denies that in the short run stocks are riskier than fixed-income assets. But in the long run, history has shown that stocks are actually less risky investments than bonds. The inflation uncertainty that is inherent in

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the paper money standard that the United States and the rest of the world have adopted indicates that “fixed income” does not mean “fixed purchasing power.” Despite the dramatic gains in price stability seen over the past decade, there is still much uncertainty about what

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objective to maximize total real return after taxes is an essential investment strategy. And stocks are very well suited to this purpose. In contrast to fixed-income investments, both the capital gains and now the dividends are treated favorably by the U.S. tax code. So in addition to having superior before

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period for capital gains portion of return. Despite the debilitating effect of taxes on equity accumulations, taxes cause the greatest damage to the returns on fixed-income investments. On an after-tax basis, an investor in the top tax bracket who put $1,000 in Treasury bills at the beginning of 1946

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401(k) plans. Many investors hold most of their stock (if they hold any at all) in their tax-deferred accounts, while they hold primarily fixed-income assets in their taxable accounts. Yet many of the recent changes in the tax laws argue that investors should do the opposite. Dividends will enjoy

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. Because of favorable dividend and capital gains tax rates and the potential to defer those capital gains taxes, stocks hold a significant tax advantage over fixed-income assets. These advantages have risen in recent years as the capital gains and dividend tax has been reduced, inflation has remained low, and firms have

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strategy called dollar cost averaging), they found that the returns over the next 14 years, at 12.2 percent per year, far exceeded those in fixed-income investments. Twelve years later they repeated the study, using the same stocks they had used in their previous study. This time the returns were even

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’s comments by penning an article in January 1997 “In the Market We Trust.”29 Henry Kaufman, the Salomon Brothers guru whose pronouncements on the fixed-income market had frequently rocked bonds in the 1980s, declared that “the exaggerated financial euphoria is 27 Three months later, in December 1995, Shulman capitulated to

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than 2 percentage points to the return over the last half century. This is substantially more than the increase in the after-tax return on fixed-income assets. But there has been a second significant factor increasing expected return on stocks—the reduction in transactions costs. Chapter 1 confirmed that the real

…

models of risk and return that economists had developed over the years, one could not explain the large gap between the returns on equities and fixed-income assets found in the historical data. They claimed that economic models predicted that either the rate of return on stocks should be lower, or the

…

rate of return on fixed-income assets should be higher, or both. In fact, according to their studies, an equity premium as low as 1 percent or less could be justified

…

to put a larger share of their savings in riskier assets such as equities. This is because workers will not need to accumulate as many fixed-income assets to protect themselves in case unemployment arises, which will also have a favorable impact on equity prices. See John Heaton and Deborah Lucas, “Portfolio

…

than did their wealthy benefactors, and this spending often requires the sale of substantial stock. Furthermore, the large volume of bank accounts, bonds, and other fixed-income securities that must be liquidated to finance the retirements of ordinary retirees could sharply raise interest rates and depress equity prices. Reversal of a Century

…

economies peaking at 13 percent per year in the United States and exceeding 24 percent in the United Kingdom. In contrast to the returns of fixed-income assets over long periods of time, the historical evidence is convincing that the returns on stocks over the same time periods have kept pace with

…

inventory profits, it leads to a downward bias in reported corporate earnings during periods of inflation. Most firms raise some of their capital by issuing fixed-income assets such as bonds and bank loans. This borrowing leverages the firm’s assets since any profits above and beyond the debt service go to

…

the best financial asset if you fear rapid inflation since many countries with high inflation can still have quite viable, if not booming, stock markets. Fixed-income assets, on the other hand, cannot protect investors from excessive government issuance of money. Inflation, although kinder to stocks than bonds, is still not good

…

worse than expected raises interest rates and depresses stock and bond prices. That inflation is bad for bonds should come as no surprise. Bonds are fixed-income investments whose cash flows are not adjusted for inflation. Bondholders demand higher interest rates to protect their purchasing power when inflation increases. Worse-than-expected

…

the market fears an increase in inflation. But if the central bank eases excessively, an investor would prefer to be in stocks than bonds, as fixed-income assets are hurt more than stocks by unexpected inflation. CONCLUSION The reactions of financial markets to the release of economic data are not random but

…

. CHAPTER 19 Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing 333 omists have been trying to figure out why stocks have returned so much more than fixed-income investments. Studies show that over periods of 20 years or more, a diversified portfolio of equities not only offers higher after-inflation returns but is

…

-term correlation between country returns, the case for international investing is persuasive. In all countries studied, the return on stocks has handily beaten bonds and fixed-income assets over the last century. Do not overweight high-growth countries, as the data presented in Chapter 9 show that investors often overpay for growth

…

, 31i Russian default on, 88 standard deviation of returns for, 30 stocks’ outperformance of, 26 yields on, stock yields related to, 95–97 (See also Fixed-income assets) Book value, 117 Bos, Roger, J., 353n Bosland, Chelcie C., 82 Boyd, John, 241n BP (British Petroleum), 177, 183 Index BP Amoco, 55 Brealey

…

First Union Bank, 21n Fischhoff, B., 326n Fisher, Irving, 4n, 23q, 78–79, 79, 80, 86, 201n Fisher, Lawrence, 45, 84 Fisher effect, 201–202 Fixed-income assets: fall in returns on, 15–16 real returns on, 14–16, 15i (See also Bonds) Flintkote, 60i, 62–63, 64 Float-adjusted shares, in

…

(Malkiel), 303 Raskob, John J., 3–5 Rational theory of consumer choice, 322 Reagan, Ronald, 274 Real returns, 112 annual, in United States, 20 on fixed-income assets, 14–16, 15i total, growth of, 11–12, 11i Rebalancing, of fundamentally weighted portfolios, 355 Regulation Q, 8 Reported earnings, 102–104 Representative bias

…

: arithmetic, 22 buy-and-hold, 215 effects of costs on, 350 from 1802-1870, 21–22 from 1802-present, 5–7, 6i excess, 215 for fixed-income assets, standard deviation of, 30 geometric, 22 long-term, 12–14, 13i from market peaks, 27, 28i mean reversion of, 13 measurement of, 23–24

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and options. Research Information Exchange Markup Language (RIXML) is an industrystandard dialect of XML that deals with management of research information, which includes equity research, fixed-income research, and events and calendars. This specification is targeted toward financial services firms such as brokerage houses, asset management companies, mutual fund managers and securities

…

in marketable securities, issuance debt and security instruments, and sale and redemption of these instruments. These activities require access to stock market information, money markets, fixed-income securities markets, foreign exchange rates and derivatives. The treasurer also needs a view of market positions, ability to track, check and complete transactions, and back

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only to have their principal whittled away through the back door. Inflation can be particularly pernicious for individuals who are retired or otherwise living on fixed incomes. If that income is not indexed for inflation, then its purchasing power will gradually fade away. A monthly check that made for a comfortable living

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, one theory for why Japanese officials have not done more to fight falling prices is that Japan’s aging population, many of whom live on fixed incomes or savings, see deflation as a good thing despite its dire consequences for the economy as a whole. The United States has had its own

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