geopolitical risk Concepts

Adriatic: A Concert of Civilizations at the End of the Modern Age

by Robert D. Kaplan · 11 Apr 2022 · 500pp · 115,119 words

, I would rather have one-on-one conversations at café tables in Ljubljana, closer to the borders of the Near East and Orthodox worlds, where geopolitical risk is more immediate, less abstract. Ljubljana: known in German as Laibach, a place more historically associated with the Habsburg Empire than with any particular nation

Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk

by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz · 8 Jul 2024 · 259pp · 89,637 words

in sound judgment.” —ALEX DRUMMOND, Chief Strategy Officer, American Express “Tailored to executives, this excellent book serves as a compass for navigating economic, financial, and geopolitical risk, emphasizing the enduring importance of judgment over prediction. A must-read for those seeking a nuanced understanding of macroeconomics and a guide for leaders shaping

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2, this book breaks the question into three interacting components: the real economy (risks to growth), the financial economy (financial risks), and the global economy (geopolitical risks). Parts 1, 2, and 3 reflect this three-way partition of the risk landscape. In each part we deconstruct the three components further into discrete

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Convergence Boom to Divergence Gloom,” we trace the rise and fall of the convergence bubble of the past 30 years (chapter 17) and analyze why geopolitical risk rarely translates linearly into macroeconomic impact and how to approach this challenge (chapter 18). We then consider the economic impact of changing trade patterns (chapter

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corollary is that exuberance about US hegemony has turned into doomsaying about US declinism. Both uses of history pull us toward extremes, and to read geopolitical risk effectively, executives will need to resist and decode that pull. Using History Why care about history? For those analyzing geopolitics—or macroeconomics—history matters because

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have experienced has been relative to the unrealistic dreams. What matters more is the actual damage and changed realities. Don’t forget to de-layer geopolitical risk. There are multiple interrelated dimensions. Geopolitical narratives weave these together into persuasive trajectories. Disaggregating security, political, economic, and financial themes will improve risk assessment by

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have to be over age 60 to have firsthand (professional) experience of geopolitics before the convergence bubble. But readers can think about the transmission of geopolitical risk to economic impact in the next chapter and dive into the details of trade risk and dollar hegemony in chapters 19 and 20 respectively. CHAPTER

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function: there is no such thing as a meaningful five-year geopolitical plan. Rather than following the approach used in preparing corporate strategies, we see geopolitical risk assessment as being closer in style to the role played by the CFO. It requires the ability to react, quickly assess impacts, and disseminate directional

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as economists cannot get it right consistently. Their genuine insight must be used with that in mind. * * * Geopolitical quantification, the other tempting tool for taming geopolitical risk, stems from the allure of models, indexes, and dashboards. These have the scientific veneer of command and control. As management scholar Peter F. Drucker argued

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anchoring on any specific expert. But such indexes suffer from significant shortcomings. Consider figure 18.2 (left panel), which charts levels of risk via a geopolitical risk index that was created by researchers at the Federal Reserve and that was in use until late 2021.10 While the time series seems to

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to equate the complexity of these two episodes with the flatness of a single number. The false equivalence exposes the weakness of quantitative approaches to geopolitical risk management. As with expert opinion, it is not that quantification itself is fatally flawed; the hazard lies in how the quantification is used. With experts

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the contours could be sketched out. Though far from perfect, financial markets can lend a helping hand. Price signals provide a first pass at assessing geopolitical risk and can typically be observed across many markets, geographies, and sectors. The signals are volatile and are more directionally revealing than precise, but they do

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less to shift the economy out of its depressive state than did the war effort. Remember, Skills Matter More Than Plans The economic impact of geopolitical risks is often absent, rarely linear, and occasionally the opposite of what could reasonably be expected. Due to its labyrinthine nature, it can be tempting to

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the case when the policy reaction overwhelms the shock’s initial impact. The discussion above has focused on the tools we can employ to translate geopolitical risk and stress to macroeconomic realities. In the following two chapters we do exactly that—with reference to trade and the dollar. CHAPTER 19 Trade, Not

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would be tragic. In macroeconomic terms, however, the impact of conflict is difficult to gauge (and can make for uncomfortable analysis). Looking across decades of geopolitical risk, macroeconomic impact is often absent, rarely linear, and occasionally the opposite of what could intuitively be expected (chapter 18). If great-power conflict were to

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Review, January/February 2015, https://static.store.tax.thomsonreuters.com/static/relatedresource/CMJ--15-01%20sample-article.pdf. 10. Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello, “Measuring Geopolitical Risk,” American Economic Review 112, no. 4 (2022): 1194, https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20191823. 11. At this point in time the

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.1 The rise and fall of the convergence bubble 18.1 War is bad, but the direction of economic impact can be surprising 18.2 Geopolitical risk is hard, probably impossible, to quantify 18.3 A positive shock: World War II returns the US economy to its pre–Great Depression trend 19

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, 59–60, 60f, 75 predictions on cyclical inflation, 150–153, 150f geopolitical, 207–218 models and, 8–10 prices commodity, 221f, 222 divergence and, 251 geopolitical risk assessment and, 214 inflation regime breaks and, 148 inflation upward bias and, 158 productivity and, 84–88, 86f, 88 stability in, inflation and, 146–147

The Dawn of Eurasia: On the Trail of the New World Order

by Bruno Macaes · 25 Jan 2018 · 287pp · 95,152 words

earth. Start with logistics and you will quickly find yourself addressing much more delicate issues. Even in its incipient form the project is creating considerable geopolitical risks. In late 2016 the founder of the military security company Blackwater, associated with the American invasion of Iraq, announced his new company would be establishing

Saudi America: The Truth About Fracking and How It's Changing the World

by Bethany McLean · 10 Sep 2018

$40 a barrel, stuff in the world starts breaking,” one oil man says. “Oil remains the world’s most efficient mechanism for translating economic into geopolitical risk,” wrote three authors in a lengthy piece called “Fueling a New Order? The New Geopolitical and Security Consequences of Energy,” which was published in 2014

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and acerbic commentators: “As The Saudi Economy Implodes, a Fascinating Solution Emerges: The Aramco IPO,” Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, January 7, 2016. 102translating economic into geopolitical risk: “Fueling a New Order? The New Geopolitical and Security Consequences of Energy,” Bruce Jones, David Steven, and Emily O’Brien, Brookings Institution, April 15, 2014

Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization

by Parag Khanna · 18 Apr 2016 · 497pp · 144,283 words

entire electronics supply chain when China temporarily banned the export of rare earth minerals in 2011. But as with the oil shocks of the 1970s, geopolitical risk has spurred the United States, Canada, India, Kazakhstan, and Australia to invest in excavating new supplies.9 Just as distributed energy supplies and alternative and

How Boards Work: And How They Can Work Better in a Chaotic World

by Dambisa Moyo · 3 May 2021 · 272pp · 76,154 words

complex. In the coming years, boards will face the challenges of providing oversight amid exponential technological change; rising activism by ever more powerful investors; mounting geopolitical risks that are trending toward insularity, protectionism, and de-globalization; and a war for global talent. Chapter 4 explores each of these critical issues and how

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even force multinational corporations to scale back and sell parts of their international operations. Boards of global corporations are already contending with a host of geopolitical risks. These include challenges to the efficacy of multilateral institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Trade Organization (WTO), which have governed the

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banks, thereby enabling them to inject greater liquidity into the economy and avoiding the dire scenario that Dimon had foreshadowed. Greater economic protectionism and mounting geopolitical risks affect where and how companies can successfully and competitively sell across borders. Boards need to make sure they have the talent and skills to understand

Super Continent: The Logic of Eurasian Integration

by Kent E. Calder · 28 Apr 2019

, 186 –187; western development, 115-116. See also Four Modernizations; Special Economic Zones (SEZs); stateowned enterprises (SOEs) China, energy: coal, 83, 198; gas, 82 – 83; geopolitical risks, 74, 127, 128-129; oil, 81– 82, 119; pipelines, 34, 57, 58 –59, 78 – 81, 83 – 84, 135, 144 –145, 153, 193; pollution, 198 –199

The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World

by Daniel Yergin · 14 May 2011 · 1,373pp · 300,577 words

’s new growth projects were in Nigeria, Kazakhstan, and Qatar, as well as Indonesia, meaning that the company’s future prospects would be susceptible to geopolitical risks of one kind or another. Qatar’s vast offshore natural gas field, at the northern end of the Persian Gulf, would be a particular challenge

The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse

by Mohamed A. El-Erian · 26 Jan 2016 · 318pp · 77,223 words

. Again, it is hard to argue that markets have priced in the scale and scope of possible disruptions that come with this unfortunate combination of geopolitical risks. And, again, the reason for this is a conditioned rational one that includes enormous faith in the power of central banks to insulate markets, together

Four Battlegrounds

by Paul Scharre · 18 Jan 2023

synthetic media will enable more sophisticated fake audio and video, making it harder for people to know what is real and what is fake. The geopolitical risks from deepfakes extend beyond manipulating elections. Fake audio or video could be used to manufacture a political crisis, undermine relations between allies, or inflame geopolitical

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, 294 Synopsys, 162 synthetic aperture radar, 210 synthetic media, 127–34, 138–39 criminal use, 128–29 deepfake detectors, 132–33 deepfake videos, 130–32 geopolitical risks, 129–30 watermarks, digital, 138–39 Syria, 58 system integration, 91 tactics and strategies, 270 Taiwan, 27, 71, 76, 100, 175, 178, 185–86 Taiwan