Age of Greed: The Triumph of Finance and the Decline of America, 1970 to the Present
by Jeff Madrick · 11 Jun 2012 · 840pp · 202,245 words
Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31 (2000–2001), pp. 1–60. 62 “NOBODY KNOWS THE COST”: On Blanchard’s inflation targeting, see Chris Giles, “IMF Experts Spell Out Policy Flaws,” Financial Times, February 12, 2010, p. 3; Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry, “Near-Rational Wage and Price
Money and Government: The Past and Future of Economics
by Robert Skidelsky · 13 Nov 2018
easy to follow the rules? Exactly the same question would arise in the Great Moderation years of the 1990s and 2000s: was it central bank inflation-targeting which kept inflation low, or was it what the Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King described as a ‘nice’ environment? 53 H i
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message was clear: he who would control money has to control expectations about future prices. This, as we shall see, was the rationale for the inflation targeting adopted in the 1990s. Like his predecessors, Fisher and Wicksell, Keynes encountered the problem of the gold standard. Bank Rate could be used to stabilize
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n e s The policy failures of monetarism led the Fed and the Bank of England to abandon the attempt directly to control monetary aggregates. Inflation targeting became the default position. Its great advantage was that it bypassed the interminable debates about whether money was exogenous or endogenous, whether one should try
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behaviours to provide consistent signals to markets. (This became standard practice until 2012, when it adopted an explicit inflation target under Ben Bernanke.)37 The European Central Bank, established in 1997, was also given an inflation target, to be achieved by varying short-term interest rates. In Britain, targeting of money was discontinued in
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the 1970s and nearly 6 per cent a year in the 1980s. The inflation record improved dramatically when inflation targeting was announced in 1992. The same pattern was seen the world over. Was it inflation targeting that ‘conquered’ inflation? Much depends on the weight one attaches to the fluctuating price of energy over the
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period 1973 to 1983. Figure 16. UK monetary policy and inflation38 30% 25% (RPI up to 1987, CPI from 1988) Bretton Woods Money Targeting Inflation Targeting DM3 20% ERM 15% 10% 5% RPIX CPI 300 250 06 04 02 08 20 20 20 20 98 96 94 00 20 19 19
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chief instrument in the central banks’ tool kit. Simon Wren Lewis put a New Keynesian gloss on this policy procedure, arguing that ‘implicit or explicit inflation targeting by independent central banks . . . reflected an understanding of the importance of rational expectations. If a central bank had a clear inflation objective, and established a
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should rise. The framework of policy was Wicksellian rather than Friedmanite: bank rate should be set to achieve the target rate of inflation. But ‘flexible inflation targeting’ incorporated the New Keynesian feature of allowing for (small) shocks to Wicksell’s ‘natural’ rate. The policy framework also emphasized the importance of policy rules
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would indicate a shortage of demand relative to supply. Targeting the inflation rate was thus a way of balancing aggregate demand and supply, with the inflation target replacing the Keynesian full employment target. This reflected Milton Friedman’s view that unemployment would normally be at its ‘natural’ rate if prices were kept
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, E. (1935), Comments. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 50 (1), pp. 185–92. 438 Bi bl io g r a p h y Hammond, G. (2009), Inflation Targeting in the UK: Bank of England presentation at the Banco Central do Brasil. Available at: http://www.bcb.gov. br/pec/depep/seminarios/2009_xisemanualmetasinflbcb
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), Global imbalances: the perspective of the Bank of England. Banque de France Financial Stability Review, 15, pp. 73–80. King, M. (2012), Twenty Years of Inflation Targeting. Available at: http:// www.bis.org/review/r121010f.pdf [Accessed 10 July 2017]. King, M. (2016), The End of Alchemy. London: Little, Brown. Kingsley, P
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(1694), 42–3, 80 given ‘operational independence’ (1998), 249, 272–3 imposes ‘Corset’ (1973), 168 inflation targeting, 188, 189, 249–53 and ‘law of reflux’, 46 as ‘lender of last resort’, 50, 249 ‘loss function’ for inflation target, 252 macroeconomic model (2004–10), 233, 310, 310–11 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), 249, 254, 265
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, 254, 261–2, 276 and broad money monetarism, 186 in Cunliffe’s model, 54, 54–5, 102, 145 after First World War, 101–2 and inflation targeting, 188, 249, 251, 252, 358–9 and Keynes, 101, 102, 115, 166, 255* and managed gold standard, 71 in pre-crash USA, 340 and Radcliffe
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‘dual mandate’ proposal, 358 during Great Moderation, 215, 252–3, 310, 359, 360 independent, 1, 32, 43, 129, 140, 188, 198, 215, 249, 272–3 inflation targeting, 2, 101, 188–9, 189, 196, 215, 249–53, 347, 358 in Keynesian economics, 101, 102–4, 105, 115–16 need for revived regulatory tools
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, US and 2008 crash, 50, 217, 254, 256 AIG bail-out (2008), 325 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), 185–6 and Great Depression, 104–6 inflation targeting, 188 and monetarism, 185–6, 188 monetary policy in 1950s, 146 ‘Operation Twist’, 268 quantitative easing (QE) by, 256–7, 273–4 ‘Reserve Position Doctrine
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Moderation, 106, 215, 216, 252–3, 253, 348, 359, 360 hyperinflation of early 1920s, 100, 275 increases in late 1960s, 152, 153, 154, 163, 164 inflation targeting, 2, 101, 188–9, 189, 196, 215, 249–53, 347, 358 ‘inflation tax’, 28, 64–5 and interest rates, 101–2, 359 Keynes–Cannan debates
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New Classical economics and 2008 collapse, 2–3, 5 DSGE modelling, 196, 211–12 and erroneous austerity arguments, 232–4 and growth in inequality, 4 inflation targeting, 2 and microeconomics of Walras, 10 ‘natural’ rate of unemployment, 2, 195, 197, 208, 232–3 New Classical economics – (c0nt.) and neo-liberal capture of
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, 212 ‘Washington consensus’, 198 484 i n de x New Keynesianism, 195–7, 199, 200, 201, 202, 212, 358 Brown constitution, 221–3, 227 and inflation targeting, 196, 251 ‘new stagnation’ theorists, 151 New Zealand, 188 Newton, Isaac, 42, 43, 47–8 Nielsen, Robert, 389 Niemeyer, Sir Otto, 108 Nixon, Richard, 153
In FED We Trust: Ben Bernanke's War on the Great Panic
by David Wessel · 3 Aug 2009 · 350pp · 109,220 words
hints of the meltdown that was to come, Bernanke devoted himself to a pet project: setting a target for inflation and trying to meet it. Inflation targeting is an effort both to avoid a repeat of the inflationary 1970s and to employ the insights of scholars concerning the importance of public expectations
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anything approaching specificity about the Fed’s goals. At one FOMC meeting, Fed governor Frederic Mishkin, a proponent of explicit inflation targeting, derided the reports as “sex made boring.” Bernanke reopened the inflation targeting question soon after becoming chairman, but the process dragged on for so long that even fans of the approach and
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past, the forecast looked out three — and later more — years, instead of the two years that had been the custom. The reports amount to unofficial inflation targeting; most Fed officials in early 2009 predicted inflation would fall between 1.9 percent and 2.0 percent several years into the future. Everyone in
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as a significant innovation. However, his change initially was overshadowed by the beginning of the Great Panic, which, among other things, exposed the shortcomings of inflation targeting über alles. The targets provided no guidance for how the Fed should respond to the collapsing housing market or the financial calamity it triggered. As
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essentially said: “Mr. Inflation, you’re going to have to wait, which is the opposite of inflation targeting.” But as the recession deepened and the inflation rate fell lower than the Fed thought desirable, the inflation target issue resurfaced — as a way for the Fed to assure everyone that it wouldn’t let inflation
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on the other side, defending Greenspan’s approach. Before Bernanke ascended to the throne, Kohn took the lead in making the public case against his inflation-targeting proposal, squaring off against Bernanke face-to-face at a St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank forum on the topic in 2004. Aware of skepticism about
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inflation targeting both inside the Fed and on Capitol Hill, Bernanke knew he couldn’t make progress without Kohn’s support. So Bernanke appointed Kohn to head
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a subcommittee to examine “communications” — a euphemism for “inflation targeting.” Bernanke knew that Kohn commanded enormous respect and affection among the Fed staff and policy makers, and he knew that Kohn was unfailingly loyal to
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was. Despite uneasiness among the Fed’s public relations staff, he titled one speech “Comfort Zones, Shmumfort Zones,” an uncomplimentary reference to an alternative to inflation targeting that called for the Fed to set a vague “comfort zone” for the acceptable level of inflation. “Putting the ‘shm’ before a word is a
The Euro and the Battle of Ideas
by Markus K. Brunnermeier, Harold James and Jean-Pierre Landau · 3 Aug 2016 · 586pp · 160,321 words
. This data does contain monetary aggregates. Although, they never admitted it, and actually resisted any suggestion to that effect, ECB policy makers were following an inflation-targeting framework inside the second pillar. Also, they thought that proper attention of the first pillar to monetary developments in medium-term price movements would provide
Birth of the Euro
by Otmar Issing · 20 Oct 2008 · 276pp · 82,603 words
the questions and my answers: Question 8: Would you support the ECB being held accountable for realizing an explicit inflation target and over what time period? To what extent could a mixed targeting strategy (inflation target ⫹ money supply target) be defined and evaluated? The ECB is definitely accountable for the target of price stability
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my invitation and made themselves available for seminars on relevant topics. For instance, we were able to discuss the whole spectrum of issues relating to inflation targeting with one of its proponents, Mervyn King, from the design stage to the problems which arise in practice, including that of communication. Alongside monetary policy
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not to spring a surprise and pursue an expansionary policy, which it might have been tempted to do. On how discretionary monetary policy compares with inflation targeting regimes, see, for example, V. V. Chari and P. J. Kehoe, ‘Modern macroeconomics in practice: how theory is shaping policy’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20
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rule can provide indications as to the current stance of monetary policy and to that extent act as a kind of guide.45 Why not inflation targeting? In the course of the preparatory work undertaken by the EMI, the experts had ruled out an exchange rate strategy for the ECB. A central
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euro area was much too large to be made dependent on another currency. That left, as it were, only two strategy options: monetary targeting and inflation targeting. At the time the discussion was taking place, the latter strategy already enjoyed a lot of support among academic economists, and could point to extremely
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successful practical models, in particular the policy pursued by two proponents, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of England. Inflation targeting was well on the way to becoming the ‘state of the art’ in central bank policy-making.46 What could have been more obvious than
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these central banks and the urging of leading economists? There are persuasive reasons why the ECB at the time chose a different course. Put simply, inflation targeting can be understood as a strategy with the following main elements: 45 46 See O. Issing, V. Gaspar, I. Angeloni and O. Tristani, Monetary Policy
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subject. For a good overview, see B. S. Bernanke, T. Laubach, F. S. Mishkin and A. S. Posen, Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience (Princeton, 1999); B. S. Bernanke and M. Woodford (eds.), Inflation Targeting (Chicago and London, 2004). Monetary policy options • 91 1. The central bank announces a numerical target (point target
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, also play an important role in this framework. Clearly, the success of this strategy depends crucially on the quality and reliability of the inflation forecast. ‘Inflation targeting’ is actually ‘inflation forecast targeting’. Because of the uncertainty (over data and structure) analysed above, however, the ECB had every reason to exercise the greatest
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.49 It also remained largely unclear which of the available models provided the closest approximation to reality. In other words, inflation targeting did not offer anywhere 47 48 49 In the original inflation targeting model, both the inflation forecast horizon and the target horizon were fixed. Meanwhile, the forecast horizon has in many cases
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have had many in-depth discussions, and also quarrels, on the subject, not least with Lars Svensson. I do not deny that the idea of inflation targeting has been handled flexibly in practice from the start, and that the theory has undergone refinement over time. But in fact, these developments in the
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concept of inflation targeting, and not least the increasing emphasis on ‘judgement’ (see footnote 50), represent elements that have been taken into account in the ECB’s strategy from
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and criticisms notwithstanding, I have learnt a great deal from the discussions on the subject. Significantly, in all the conversations I had with proponents of inflation targeting, I never received an answer to my question of how the data problem in the forecast could be satisfactorily overcome. Regarding the scale of the
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in light of the particular uncertainty facing the ECB. Given these criticisms, the linkage between the forecast and the monetary policy response becomes less clear: inflation targeting becomes extremely complex, the ‘charm’ of its seeming simplicity is lost, and communication becomes correspondingly difficult. Nothing exemplifies this better than the fact that, over
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time, it has been conceded that inflation targeting requires ‘judgement’.50 These considerations argued against an inflation-targeting strategy for the ECB. This certainly does not mean, however, that the ECB rejects inflation targeting lock, stock and barrel – quite the reverse.51 As will be shown in the
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next chapter, the strategy adopted by the ECB shares important elements with inflation targeting. Chief among them are the priority accorded to price stability, underscored by quantification of the target, and the importance of transparency. The ECB also uses
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. They are only one input – albeit an important one – in the assessment of the future evolution of prices. Alongside these objections, one fundamental shortcoming of inflation targeting was a decisive factor in our decision, namely the fact that it completely ignores the relationship – borne out by overwhelming empirical evidence – between the growth
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of the money 50 51 Compare, as but one example, the two papers by the eminent proponent L. E. O. Svensson: ‘Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 43 (1999); ‘Monetary policy with judgement forecast targeting’, UCB, International Journal of Central Banking, 1:1
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(2005). If one restricts the definition of inflation targeting to the common elements, then one could also call the ECB an inflation targeter. See O. Issing, ‘Inflation targeting: a view from the ECB’, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review, 86 (2004). Monetary policy options
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• 93 supply and inflation. The econometric models commonly used for inflation targeting are essentially models of the real economy, and thus do not assume any independent influence of monetary growth on price developments. This bears out the
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rely for their assessment of current conditions and future inflation solely on models that completely disregard this important relationship between money and prices. In an inflation-targeting framework it is moreover almost impossible to take adequate account of developments in asset prices. It was for all these reasons that the ECB rejected
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the option of an inflation-targeting strategy.52 Deciding against a monetary target So, should the ECB not have opted for the second strategy considered by the EMI and adopted a
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), Reinhard Schmidt (Frankfurt University) et al., European Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee (ESFRC). Other speakers included Lars E. O. Svensson (Institute for International Economic Studies) on ‘Inflation Targeting’, John Taylor (Stanford University) on ‘Interest Rate Rules’, Stefan Gerlach (Bank for International Settlements, BIS), Ignazio Visco (OECD) and Thomas Mayer (Goldman Sachs). The ‘Watchers
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, 213 high 143–6 long-term in euro area 144 fig. 11 low-level 100–3 well-anchored 66, 87, 117, 140–1, 145–6 inflation targeting 30, 85, 90–3, 103 insolvency, of sovereign states 194, 196 interest rates at beginning of monetary union 138–41 criterion for admission to EMU
Getting Back to Full Employment: A Better Bargain for Working People
by Dean Baker and Jared Bernstein · 14 Nov 2013 · 128pp · 35,958 words
the punditry to be unfit for work would be miraculously on the job. A second new development that brings us back to this research is inflation targeting by the Federal Reserve Board. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has publicly committed the central bank to a policy of targeting a 2.0 percent inflation
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inflation targeting as the basis for central bank policy, it is worth asking where this urge originated. First, note that wealthy countries have generally had inflation rates
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in fact no relationship. For this reason, some view this literature as being less conclusive than the proponents of inflation targeting believe. Skeptics also question the rationale for a 2.0 percent inflation target as opposed to a 0.0 percent target. Advocates of the 2.0 percent target generally take the view that
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is close to zero (see e.g. Feldstein 1997). However, this assumption raises a fundamental problem with the sort of studies that the proponents of inflation targeting use as evidence to support this policy. If there is a large error in the measure of inflation, then this measurement error is likely to
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GDP grows by 5.0 percent and the inflation rate is 2.0 percent, then real GDP growth is 3.0 percent. But proponents of inflation targeting argue that the measured rate of inflation is subject to a large amount of error, so that 2.0 percent measured inflation may actually correspond
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inflation-targeting policy is dubious. If the general public and even most politicians fully understood the costs and risks associated with the inflation policy pursued by central
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to 1.0 percentage points below the level that is consistent with stable inflation for a period of time. [23] In fairness to advocates of inflation targeting, there is a wide range of views as to how strictly we should hold to the target as the primary or only goal of monetary
Endless Money: The Moral Hazards of Socialism
by William Baker and Addison Wiggin · 2 Nov 2009 · 444pp · 151,136 words
with an antigold bias is examined carefully. The modern precepts of central banking T 70 Flat-Earth Economics 71 are discussed, revealing how and why inflation targeting has become the primary policy rule, and what this means for financial markets over a very long stretch of time. Several provocative figures are presented
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conflict, the central bank might defend maintaining a prudent stance with this institutionalized formula. But a larger theoretical question gnaws at the accepted convention of inflation targeting, even if it is improved through considering real growth as well. Is the primary outcome being targeted—inflation—really the underlying problem, or is it
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before severe systemic damage is done. The freezing of the credit markets in 2008 throws an inconvenient monkey wrench into the inflation-targeting orthodoxy of the high priests of central banking. Inflation targeting is like a surfer’s fancy maneuvers to optimize his ride on the crest of a building wave. It’s great
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induced in the 1870-1890 period. Or, under a fiat system such as 1940-1970, an inflation level above the comfort zone of today’s inflation-targeting Fed governors might result. But it wouldn’t necessarily restrain economic output. With credit held in check, the increase in money tends to flow to
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. However, there must be other factors at work because in three of the six long time periods shown, the directional movement is negative! Moreover, if inflation targeting through using the lever of the Fed funds rate is our intervention weapon of choice, the scatter plot in Figure 4.3 would indicate that
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question of whether great depressions are caused by the excessive buildup of debt, which is fostered by centralized control over money and the policy of inflation targeting, which inclines the money supply to expand faster than real economic activity. Considering that blaming gold for transmitting the depression globally is in vogue today
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, 94, 112–113, 114, 116, 131. See also Flat-Earth economics, debt inflation theory Fitzgerald, F. Scott, 165, 175 Flat-Earth economics: overview, 70–75 inflation targeting, 75–84 and the Great Depression, 84–94 debt inflation theory, 94–105 debt among nations, 105–115 and six sigma events, 111 Flower, Shawn
The Invisible Hands: Top Hedge Fund Traders on Bubbles, Crashes, and Real Money
by Steven Drobny · 18 Mar 2010 · 537pp · 144,318 words
we are in now, you can have much greater policy divergence. Every major central bank in the world over the last 10 years has been inflation targeting, and this may well cease to be the driver going forward. The ECB may target inflation, whereas the Fed may target growth, for example. Congress
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examples. Another example is policy change. Central banks changing the manner in which they conduct policy can be a source of alpha. People think of inflation targeting as the Holy Grail, but that cachet has applied for less than a decade. For example, the National Bank Act in Switzerland formalized the Swiss
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Bank’s (SNB) independence and mandate in the constitution only in 2003, which is frankly like yesterday in the big picture. You could argue that inflation targeting has worked as planned, but that it also led to the crisis of 2008. Because people thought that price stability was here forever, they started
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levering up, and asset prices exploded. An example where alpha may result from policy change going forward is central banks moving away from inflation targeting, whereby they perhaps target inflation and credit growth. That would generate volatility and change how risk premia are valued. Another source of alpha from policy
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/reward, change trading accounts, problems decisions, policy makers (impact) disaster preplanning sharpness style, implementation worldview Euro, two-year Euro interest rates European Central Bank (ECB) inflation targeting European Currency Unit (ECU) basket European Exchange Rate (ERM) European Monetary Unit (EMU) European Union, breakage (potential) Excess demand, control Excess return, valuation Exchange rate
When the Money Runs Out: The End of Western Affluence
by Stephen D. King · 17 Jun 2013 · 324pp · 90,253 words
and narrow. There is, apparently, no reason to fear the onset of depression, stagnation or inflation because, nowadays, we know how to fix such problems. Inflation targeting – an amalgamation (more accurately, a bastardization) of the views of von Mises and Friedman – supposedly reduces the likelihood of crises fuelled by excessive inflation or
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ever rising income, policy-makers' confidence didn't seem entirely misplaced. But after hubris came nemesis. Far from preventing the economic crisis, the pursuit of inflation targeting and a dependency on continued Keynesian-style rescue operations from policy-makers may have contributed to the West's financial downfall. Take, for example
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, inflation targeting in the UK. In the early years of the new millennium, inflation had a tendency to drop too low, thanks to the deflationary effects on
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the expense of a bigger fall in activity that, in the Bank's judgement, would have been not only unwelcome but also inconsistent with its inflation targeting remit. Yet there is something disconcerting about King's remarks. If inflation was allowed to overshoot target post-crisis thanks to the effects of higher
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the persistence of deflation were all reflections of the now near-universal attachment of monetary systems to the Gold Standard, the nineteenth-century equivalent of inflation targeting. At first, investors in silver mines – many of which were in North America – were particularly vulnerable, reflecting the sudden loss in ‘official’ demand for silver
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investment for tomorrow. A NEW MONETARY FRAMEWORK Monetary policy alone cannot solve the Western world's economic ills. Yet there is room for modest reform. Inflation targeting, the backbone of monetary policy throughout much of the Western world, is no longer able to provide the monetary answers. Adherents of
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inflation targeting gave the impression that monetary policy was somehow merely a job for technicians who could blissfully ignore the day-to-day political fray. That's
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been decidedly anaemic. Central bankers have instead ended up making a deal with the fiscal devil. So perhaps it's time to formalize that deal. Inflation targeting is all very well but nations today desperately need higher levels of activity. Central banks that focus on price stability alone are not in a
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to inflationary undershoots. On this occasion, inflation has hardly budged. From a purely inflation-targeting perspective, it seems as though central bankers are doing the right thing. That, though, surely suggests that inflation targeting is too narrow an ambition. Hitting an inflation target when the economy is on the ropes is a bit like taking pleasure
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in one's exercise regime even as the cardiologist tells you that you need a heart transplant. Inflation targeting is neither a necessary nor a sufficient framework for running the economy. It creates an illusion that monetary policy is somehow ‘neutral’ when monetary decisions
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up, contracts end up null and void and the currency falls. Economic recovery becomes ever less likely. Far better, then, for central banks to put inflation targeting to one side and, instead, focus on the value of national income. What's needed is not so much an
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the effects of outsourcing manufacturing production to China or other low-cost producers. Lower import prices will, in time, lead to lower inflation. Under an inflation targeting regime, the central bank should respond by cutting interest rates to lift domestically generated inflation to bring overall inflation back to target. The rise in
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: a lower level of imports subtracts less from nominal GDP. The policy implications are, therefore, entirely different. Rather than cutting interest rates, as implied by inflation targeting, there should be a bias towards raising interest rates. Had this approach been used in the years running up to the financial crisis, central bankers
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the world is an inherently uncertain place which does not respond well to simple macroeconomic rules that, eventually, only lead to distortion and disaster. Whether inflation targeting, deficit targeting, debt targeting or any other brand of ‘commitment’, these macroeconomic frameworks are only as good as the results they deliver. For the most
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off at the end of the 1980s. In 2012, both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan finally got around to adopting formal inflation targets, ironically after inflation targeting had failed to prevent the financial crisis. 16. See, for example, P. Krugman, ‘It's Baaack! Japan's Slump and the Return of the
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), (ii) economy (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) equities (i) and the eurozone (i), (ii) exports (i) government borrowing (i) growth forecasts (i) income inequality (i), (ii) inflation targeting (i) interest rates (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) liabilities (i) mortgages (i), (ii) national income (i), (ii), (iii) per capita incomes (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) precious
The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People's Economy
by Stephanie Kelton · 8 Jun 2020 · 338pp · 104,684 words
or how much inflation is considered too much. The central bank is treated as independent in the sense that it gets to pick its own inflation target and decide for itself what maximum employment means.8 Like most central banks, the Federal Reserve has chosen a 2 percent
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