loss aversion

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Fixed: Why Personal Finance is Broken and How to Make it Work for Everyone

by John Y. Campbell and Tarun Ramadorai  · 25 Jul 2025

): 262–292, and Daniel Kahneman, Jack L. Knetsch, and Richard H. Thaler, “Anomalies: The endowment effect, loss aversion, and status quo bias,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 5, no. 1 (1991): 193–206. For evidence that loss aversion is not confined to human beings, see M. Keith Chen, Venkat Lakshminarayanan, and Laurie R. Santos, “How

Finance, 216 longevity risk, 169 long-term inflation-indexed bonds, 166 long-term insurance, 253–254. See also life insurance long-term interest rates, 289n37 losses: aversion to, 130; deferring pain of, 45 lottery: initial public offering and, 137; prize-linked savings account and, 223, 240, 241; state, 292n9; value of ticket

Human Frontiers: The Future of Big Ideas in an Age of Small Thinking

by Michael Bhaskar  · 2 Nov 2021

older we get, the less risk the economy can bear. In general, one would expect an older society to be less dynamic, more risk- and loss-averse. Others see the role of competition, market barriers or access to capital as having the same effect. The capital required to unseat incumbents, whose market

Split-Second Persuasion: The Ancient Art and New Science of Changing Minds

by Kevin Dutton  · 3 Feb 2011  · 338pp  · 100,477 words

stock-market decline – despite the fact that the latter, over time, have shown far better rates of return. Such conundrums as this – known as myopic loss aversion – have provided the impetus for a new, and somewhat timely, field of study: neuroeconomics. Neuroeconomics focuses on the mental processes that drive financial decision-making

Brave New Work: Are You Ready to Reinvent Your Organization?

by Aaron Dignan  · 1 Feb 2019  · 309pp  · 81,975 words

/papers/w10486.pdf. We prefer to stick with what we’ve got: Daniel Kahneman, Jack L. Knetsch, and Richard H. Thaler, “Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 5, no. 1 (1991), doi:10.1257/jep.5.1.193. “put a man on the moon

Psychopathy: An Introduction to Biological Findings and Their Implications

by Andrea L. Glenn and Adrian Raine  · 7 Mar 2014

with conduct problems and callous-unemotional traits.” Brain 132:843–52. De Martino, B., C. F. Camerer, and R. Adolphs. 2010. “Amygdala damage eliminates monetary loss aversion.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 107 (8):3788–92. de Oliveira-Souza, R., R. D. Hare, I. E. Bramati, G. J. Garrido

Thinking, Fast and Slow

by Daniel Kahneman  · 24 Oct 2011  · 654pp  · 191,864 words

sensitive to changes than to states (prospect theory)* overweights low probabilities* shows diminishing sensitivity to quantity (psychophysics)* responds more strongly to losses than to gains (loss aversion)* frames decision problems narrowly, in isolation from one another* * * * Part 2 Heuristics and Biases The Law of Small Numbers A study of the incidence

room. Similarly, the subjective difference between $900 and $1,000 is much smaller than the difference between $100 and $200. The third principle is loss aversion. When directly compared or weighted against each other, losses loom larger than gains. This asymmetry between the power of positive and negative expectations or experiences

slope of the function changes abruptly at the reference point: the response to losses is stronger than the response to corresponding gains. This is loss aversion. Figure 10 Loss Aversion Many of the options we face in life are “mixed”: there is a risk of loss and an opportunity for gain, and we must

rise, but not dramatically. All bets are off, of course, if the possible loss is potentially ruinous, or if your lifestyle is threatened. The loss aversion coefficient is very large in such cases and may even be infinite—there are risks that you will not accept, regardless of how many millions

I have made two claims, which some readers may view as contradictory: In mixed gambles, where both a gain and a loss are possible, loss aversion causes extremely risk-averse choices. In bad choices, where a sure loss is compared to a larger loss that is merely probable, diminishing sensitivity causes

prospect theory. Figure 10 shows an abrupt change in the slope of the value function where gains turn into losses, because there is considerable loss aversion even when the amount at risk is minuscule relative to your wealth. Is it plausible that attitudes to states of wealth could explain the extreme

theory failed to attract scholarly notice for more than 250 years. In 2000, the behavioral economist Matthew Rabin finally proved mathematically that attempts to explain loss aversion by the utility of wealth are absurd and doomed to fail, and his proof attracted attention. Rabin’s theorem shows that anyone who rejects

criticized the rational model and expected utility theory. It is time for some balance. Most graduate students in economics have heard about prospect theory and loss aversion, but you are unlikely to find these terms in the index of an introductory text in economics. I am sometimes pained by this omission,

was accepted by many scholars not because it is “true” but because the concepts that it added to utility theory, notably the reference point and loss aversion, were worth the trouble; they yielded new predictions that turned out to be true. We were lucky. Speaking of Prospect Theory “He suffers from

reference point is the existing contract and that the negotiations will focus on mutual demands for concessions relative to that reference point. The role of loss aversion in bargaining is also well understood: making concessions hurts. You have much personal experience of the role of reference point. If you changed jobs

were coded as pluses or minuses relative to where you were. You may also have noticed that disadvantages loomed larger than advantages in this evaluation—loss aversion was at work. It is difficult to accept changes for the worse. For example, the minimal wage that unemployed workers would accept for new

contrast, prospect theory asserts that both twins will definitely prefer to remain as they are. This preference for the status quo is a consequence of loss aversion. Let us focus on Albert. He was initially in position 1 on the graph, and from that reference point he found these two alternatives

to buy. These cases of routine trading are not essentially different from the exchange of a $5 bill for five singles. There is no loss aversion on either side of routine commercial exchanges. What distinguishes these market transactions from Professor R’s reluctance to sell his wine, or the reluctance of

a subject about which our grandmothers knew a great deal. In fact, however, we know more than our grandmothers did and can now embed loss aversion in the context of a broader two-systems model of the mind, and specifically a biological and psychological view in which negativity and escape dominate

positivity and approach. We can also trace the consequences of loss aversion in surprisingly diverse observations: only out-of-pocket losses are compensated when goods are lost in transport; attempts at large-scale reforms very often

a cherry will do nothing at all for a bowl of cockroaches. As he points out, the negative trumps the positive in many ways, and loss aversion is one of many manifestations of a broad negativity dominance. Other scholars, in a paper titled “Bad Is Stronger Than Good,” summarized the evidence

of course, and you will soon be shivering behind the rock again, driven by your renewed suffering to seek better shelter. Goals are Reference Points Loss aversion refers to the relative strength of two motives: we are driven more strongly to avoid losses than to achieve gains. A reference point is sometimes

theoretical concept as an aid to thinking. Who would have thought it worthwhile to spend months analyzing putts for par and birdie? The idea of loss aversion, which surprises no one except perhaps some economists, generated a precise and nonintuitive hypothesis and led researchers to a finding that surprised everyone—including

reference points, and a proposed change in any aspect of the agreement is inevitably viewed as a concession that one side makes to the other. Loss aversion creates an asymmetry that makes agreements difficult to reach. The concessions you make to me are my gains, but they are your losses; they

, when the existing workforce is reduced by attrition rather than by dismissals, or when cuts in salaries and benefits apply only to future workers. Loss aversion is a powerful conservative force that favors minimal changes from the status quo in the lives of both institutions and individuals. This conservatism helps keep

us stable in our neighborhood, our marriage, and our job; it is the gravitational force that holds our life together near the reference point. Loss Aversion in the Law During the year that we spent working together in Vancouver, Richard Thaler, Jack Knetsch, and I were drawn into a study of

designed to reward generosity as reliably as they punish meanness. Here again, we find a marked asymmetry between losses and gains. The influence of loss aversion and entitlements extends far beyond the realm of financial transactions. Jurists were quick to recognize their impact on the law and in the administration of

Sam never wavers in his aversion to losses. However, the aggregation of favorable gambles rapidly reduces the probability of losing, and the impact of loss aversion on his preferences diminishes accordingly. Now I have a sermon ready for Sam if he rejects the offer of a single highly favorable gamble played

themselves from the pain of losses by broad framing. As was mentioned earlier, we now know that experimental subjects could be almost cured of their loss aversion (in a particular context) by inducing them to “think like a trader,” just as experienced baseball card traders are not as susceptible to the

used in lie detection. As expected, broad framing blunted the emotional reaction to losses and increased the willingness to take risks. The combination of loss aversion and narrow framing is a costly curse. Individual investors can avoid that curse, achieving the emotional benefits of broad framing while also saving time and

avoidance of exposure to short-term outcomes improves the quality of both decisions and outcomes. The typical short-term reaction to bad news is increased loss aversion. Investors who get aggregated feedback receive such news much less often and are likely to be less risk averse and to end up richer.

. An organization that could eliminate both excessive optimism and excessive loss aversion should do so. The combination of the outside view with a risk policy should be the goal. Richard Thaler tells of a discussion about decision

which separate attributes are combined to form overall measures of advantage and of disadvantage, but it imposes on these measures assumptions of concavity and of loss aversion. Our analysis of mental accounting owes a large debt to the stimulating work of Richard Thaler (1980, 1985), who showed the relevance of this

to the former. Evidently, the same difference in pay or in working conditions looms larger as a disadvantage than as an advantage. In general, loss aversion favors stability over change. Imagine two hedonically identical twins who find two alternative environments equally attractive. Imagine further that by force of circumstance the twins

laureate receives an individual certificate with a personalized drawing, which is presumably chosen by the committee. My illustration was a stylized rendition of figure 10. “loss aversion ratio”: The loss aversion ratio is often found to be in the range of 1. 5 and 2.5: Nathan Novemsky and Daniel Kahneman, “The Boundaries of

an estimate of 2.3, “in striking agreement with estimates obtained in the very different methodology of laboratory experiments of individual decision-making”: Moshe Levy, “Loss Aversion and the Price of Risk,” Quantitative Finance 10 (2010): 1009–22. effect of price increases: Miles O. Bidwel, Bruce X. Wang, and J. Douglas

of Local Telephone Calls,” Journal of Regulatory Economics 8 (1995): 285–98. Bruce G. S. Hardie, Eric J. Johnson, and Peter S. Fader, “Modeling Loss Aversion and Reference Dependence Effects on Brand Choice,” Marketing Science 12 (1993): 378–94. illustrate the power of these concepts: Colin Camerer, “Three Cheers—Psychological, Theoretical

, Empirical—for Loss Aversion,” Journal of Marketing Research 42 (2005): 129–33. Colin F. Camerer, “Prospect Theory in the Wild: Evidence from the Field,” in Choices, Values, and

Frames, ed. Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2000), 288–300. condo apartments in Boston: David Genesove and Christopher Mayer, “Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 116 (2001): 1233–60. effect of trading experience: John A. List, “Does Market

when you buy one good that you will not be unable to afford another good. Novemsky and Kahneman, “The Boundaries of Loss Aversion.” Ian Bateman et al., “Testing Competing Models of Loss Aversion: An Adversarial Collaboration,” Journal of Public Economics 89 (2005): 1561–80. 28: Bad Events heartbeat accelerated: Paul J. Whalen et

Behavior: An Evolutionary Approach (Sunderland, MA: Sinauer Associates, 2009), 278–84, cited by Eyal Zamir, “Law and Psychology: The Crucial Role of Reference Points and Loss Aversion,” working paper, Hebrew University, 2011. merchants, employers, and landlords: Daniel Kahneman, Jack L. Knetsch, and Richard H. Thaler, “Fairness as a Constraint on Profit

of the gamble and you will find AD and BC. the equivalent of “locking in”: Thomas Langer and Martin Weber, “Myopic Prospect Theory vs. Myopic Loss Aversion: How General Is the Phenomenon?” Journal of E {>Joenon?&conomic Behavior & Organization 56 (2005): 25–38. 32: Keeping Score drive into a blizzard: The

frowning; availability heuristic and; representativeness and gains Galinsky, Adam Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index Galton, Francis gambles; bundling of; certainty effect and; emotional framing in; loss aversion in; lottery; mixed; and outcomes produced by action vs. inaction; possibility effect and; psychological value of; regret and; simple; St. Petersburg paradox and; vs.

Layard, Richard leaderless group challenge leadership and business practices; at Google LeBoeuf, Robyn legal cases: civil, damages in; DNA evidence in; fourfold pattern and; frivolous; loss aversion in; malpractice; outcome bias in leisure time less-is-more pattern Lewis, Michael libertarian policies Lichtenstein, Sarah life: evaluation of; stories in; satisfaction in; thinking

in Albert and Ben problem; blind spots of; cumulative; decision weights and probabilities in; fourfold pattern in; frames and; graph of losses and gains in; loss aversion in; reference points in “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk” (Kahneman and Tversky) prototypes psychiatric patients psychological immune system psychology, teaching psychopathic charm

decision weights; denominator neglect and; by experts; and format of risk expression; fourfold pattern in; for health risks; hindsight bias and; laws and regulations governing; loss aversion in; narrow framing in; optimistic bias and; policies for; possibility effect and; precautionary principle and; probability neglect and; public policies and; small risks and; of

Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought

by Andrew W. Lo  · 3 Apr 2017  · 733pp  · 179,391 words

set out to test these systematic biases in an experimental setting. From a financial perspective, one of the most important of these biases is called loss aversion. When we make choices involving risky outcomes, most of us place greater weight on losses than on gains. We’re much more averse to losing

in a risky situation than simple mathematics would predict. Loss aversion is so embedded in our behavior that it can be difficult for us to see. Kahneman and Tversky brought it to light by ruthlessly stripping

worth much less than the possibility of many thorns in the bush if that possibility also includes a chance of avoiding thorns altogether. Why should loss aversion be interesting to anyone other than academics? It’s because this behavior is especially counterproductive in a financial context. To see why, take the combination

Banks, 2002, $691 million loss), Yasuo Hamanaka (Sumitomo, 1996, $2.6 billion loss), Nick Leeson (Barings, 1995, £827 million loss), and many others before them. Loss aversion applies not only to traders and investors, but to any individual facing a choice between a sure loss and a riskier alternative that may bring

the regulator’s competence and bringing down political wrath on the regulator’s agency. Here we have all the ingredients for a classic case of loss aversion: a sure loss to the regulator if she takes action, but a riskier alternative with the possibility of redemption, if only she waits. Waiting to

why regulatory forbearance might occur, such as global competition among regulatory agencies and the political economy of regulation.15 But a more mundane explanation is loss aversion: a sure loss to the regulator if she calculates that a bank’s assets have declined, and a riskier but less psychologically painful alternative if

crisis,16 we shouldn’t dismiss the possibility that they didn’t react sooner simply because they were too human. PROBABILITY MATCHING AND MARCH MADNESS Loss aversion is only one of many behavioral biases discovered by psychologists like Tversky and Kahneman. Just as the human eye is susceptible to optical illusions, the

, or there must be something else driving us to behave in these seemingly irrational ways. Fortunately for our self-esteem, there is. Probability matching and loss aversion are not irrational in the sense of being totally random—they’re far too systematic for that. Let me propose an outline of an explanation

. We may know what we do, but we need to understand how and why as well. IT TAKES A THEORY TO BEAT A THEORY Although loss aversion, probability matching, the Law of Small Numbers, and representativeness are clearly irrational in certain contexts, they don’t amount to full theories of human psychology

arise from small, systematic glitches in how we perceive the world, and more important, how we act on those misperceptions. For example, we saw how loss aversion easily explains the phenomenon of rogue traders, tens of billions of dollars at a time, a rather large difference from market efficiency. Clearly, human decision

forever. The problem is that regulators are human too, and as we explored in chapter 2, the same behavioral biases that lead to rogue traders—loss aversion—can also cause bank supervisors to wait too long before taking away the punchbowl. The Adaptive Markets framework includes regulators as part of the ecosystem

London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), 344 longevity risk, 408 Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), 230, 241–244, 292, 294, 316, 321, 376 Loomis, Carol, 233 loss aversion, 58, 61–62, 65, 69 Lotta-Volterra equations, 279 Lou Gehrig’s disease (amyotrophic lateral sclerosis), 409 Lucas, Debbie, 361 Lucas, Robert, 36, 37, 42

Expected Returns: An Investor's Guide to Harvesting Market Rewards

by Antti Ilmanen  · 4 Apr 2011  · 1,088pp  · 228,743 words

“arbitrage”. • Irrationality reflects biased beliefs (heuristic shortcuts, such as representativeness and conservatism, and self-deception, such as overconfidence and hindsight) as well as nonclassical preferences (loss aversion, narrow framing, overweighting low-probability events, etc.). • Behavioral finance literature is fun and offers stories for most observed empirical anomalies, perhaps too easily. • The best

revealed in Kahneman and Tversky’s experimental studies, are:— people care more about gains and losses (changes in wealth) than about overall wealth; — people exhibit loss aversion and can be risk seeking when facing the possibility of loss; — people overweight low-probability events. Here is a well-known example from behavioral experiments

the initial bonus and the gamble separately. Such findings, together with the observation that people tend to reject actuarially fair (50/50) gambles, point to loss aversion (losses loom larger than same-sized gains) [1]. Let us look at the specifics. In PT, people maximize the weighted sum of values (utilities) where

advantageous gambles as often as they do. • The value function is kinked at the origin or the “reference point”; the steeper slope below zero implies loss aversion. Many studies show that losses hurt twice to two and a half times as much as same-sized gains satisfy. Following the example above, the

. However, PT as described above pertains to one-off gambles. Risk preferences in a sequence of gambles depend on how prior gains and losses influence loss aversion over time. An experimental study by Thaler and Johnson finds evidence in favor of the house money effect—more aggressive risk taking following successful trading

, and cautiousness following losses. Such dynamic loss aversion is broadly consistent with wealth-dependent risk aversion. There is one interesting exception to caution after losses: if investors have a chance to fully recover

of rational explanations for each regularity. 6.5 NOTES [1] The second feature could also reflect classic risk aversion—diminishing marginal utility of wealth. However, loss aversion seems a more plausible explanation given the finding that expected utility maximizers should act in an almost risk-neutral fashion over small-stake gambles unless

decade may cast a long shadow on investor behavior. The two main behavioral explanations both require combining loss aversion with one other behavioral feature—a short time horizon (myopia) or the house money effect:• The myopic loss aversion model relies on a variant of mental accounting related to the investment time horizon (evaluation period

evaluate their portfolios very frequently, the odds of risky assets outperforming riskless ones are close to 50/50 and loss aversion kicks in. Over longer horizons, the odds steadily improve. A typical degree of loss aversion applied to annual changes in financial wealth can justify an equity premium of 6.5%, suggesting that an

which investors derive utility both from consumption and from annual changes in wealth. They too assume a typical degree of loss aversion (just above 2) but find that a model with constant loss aversion cannot fully explain the equity premium puzzle. However, they can resolve the puzzle if they include in their model the

“house money effect”—the idea that the degree of loss aversion varies dynamically with prior gains and losses. The model thus implies that investors’ risk attitudes become more conservative in down-markets. The next section shows

the long run: A potential resolution of asset pricing puzzles,” Journal of Finance 59(4), 1481–1509. Barberis, Nicholas; and Ming Huang (2001), “Mental accounting, loss aversion, and individual stock returns,” Journal of Finance 56, 1247–1292. Barberis, Nicholas; and Ming Huang (2008), “Stocks as lotteries: The implications of probability weighting for

. Bekaert, Geert; and Xiaozheng Wang (2010), “Inflation risk and the inflation risk premium,” Economic Policy, 25, 755–806. Benartzi, Shlomo; and Richard Thaler (1995), “Myopic loss aversion and the equity premium puzzle,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 110, 75–92. Benzoni, Luca; Pierre Collin-Dufresne; and Robert S. Goldstein (2010), “Explaining asset pricing

institutional practices insurance selling/buying key debates large investors leverage liquidity lottery selling/buying market timing recent success takeaways theory lookahead bias lookback bias loss loss aversion models lottery approaches LTCM HF management lunar cycle macro-finance models, BRP managers hedge funds PE funds skill styles marginal utility (MU) market-cap-weighted

Moody’s mortgage-backed securities (MBS) Moses see Mei—Moses Mount Lucas Management (MLMCCO) trend-following index MU see marginal utility multi-factor models myopic loss aversion model narrow framing, PT National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) NCREIF real estate index noise traders nominal bonds non-government bonds non-zero yield spreads

Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk

by Peter L. Bernstein  · 23 Aug 1996  · 415pp  · 125,089 words

willing to choose a gamble when they consider it appropriate. But if they are not risk-averse, what are they? "The major driving force is loss aversion," writes Tversky (italics added). "It is not so much that people hate uncertainty-but rather, they hate losing."6 Losses will always loom larger than

your losses is also a good idea, but investors hate to take losses, because, tax considerations aside, a loss taken is an acknowledgment of error. Loss-aversion combined with ego leads investors to gamble by clinging to their mistakes in the fond hope that some day the market will vindicate their judgment

is relatively unimportant. The start-up company's performance as compared with Johnson & Johnson's performance taken as a reference point is what matters. Second, loss aversion and anxiety will make the joy of winning on the start-up company less than the pain if you lose on it. Johnson & Johnson is

, stockholders would have been wealthier than they had been. To explain the puzzle, Shefrin and Statman draw on mental accounting, self-control, decision regret, and loss aversion. In the spirit of Adam Smith's "impartial spectactor" and Sigmund Freud's "superego," investors resort to these deviations from rational decision-making because they

survival is vulnerable to the risks of volatility. As a result, volatility tends to be underpriced, especially in the commodity markets, and the producer's loss aversion gives the speculator a built-in advantage. This phenomen goes under the strange name of "backwardation." In the twelfth century, sellers at medieval trade fairs

the Endowment Effect." Journal ofPolitical Economy, Vol. 98, No. 6, pp. 1325-1348. Thaler, Richard H., Amos Tversky, and Jack L. Knetsch, 1991. "Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias." Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 193-206. Todhunter, Isaac, 1931. A History of the Mathematical Theory of

Big Data and the Welfare State: How the Information Revolution Threatens Social Solidarity

by Torben Iversen and Philipp Rehm  · 18 May 2022

average risks because there is no such thing as an actuarially accurate policy position. Nevertheless, under reasonable assumptions, the center is the preferred position of “loss-averse” voters who try to avoid making big mistakes if they are ill-informed. The result follows from spatial voting under uncertainty where voters minimize the

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