Gambling Man
by Lionel Barber · 3 Oct 2024 · 424pp · 123,730 words
to do with its operational business: instead the currency market moved in SoftBank’s favour. In 1995, Masa was desperate to take advantage of record low interest rates and the strong yen against the US dollar. Ron Fisher, Masa’s trusted American lieutenant, later explained that currency moves rescued what might otherwise have
Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider’s View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead
by Kenneth Rogoff · 27 Feb 2025 · 330pp · 127,791 words
future (say, for emergency defense needs, the green transition, or a presidential administration gone off the rails)? Austerity? Financial repression (forced holdings of debt at low interest rates)? Outright default? Mind you, there was inflation before the printing press; it was just much harder to do. When coins were made of precious metals
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in its forecasts. Given that ballooning debt burdens are a likely future source of political pressures on central banks, especially if the era of ultra-low interest rates does not return, the Maastricht treaty restrictions, which for years many liberal economists have argued are vastly too restrictive, will likely help protect the independence
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economies. That was helping to produce a large flow of funds from China to the United States. That inflow, in turn, was contributing to very low interest rates in the United States, not only for the government but also for households, as well as a massive run-up in equity and housing prices
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destabilizing in their countries. They see Federal Reserve interest rate policy as helping propel a global financial cycle: foreign capital rushes in when investors see low interest rates and relative economic calm in the United States, but then races out even faster when interest rates and risk perceptions turn.5 And even worse
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economy, which makes Wall Street like them even better. A second reason was that tech firms are best positioned to exploit a world of very low interest rates, which make very-long-term projects viable even if they don’t pay off for decades—for example, space exploration, self-driving vehicles, or artificial
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much when the Fed has to raise interest rates to control inflation. There are also pressures from the rest of the economy. Most people love low interest rates. When financing costs are low, it is cheaper to buy a house or a car, or anything purchased on credit. And precisely because
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to push up the price of stocks and housing, people feel wealthier, borrow more, and spend more. For a long time, Americans facing low interest rates have behaved as if savings was for suckers. Private-equity funds that took out massive loans to buy companies made spectacular profits, as did ordinary
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his 2019 presidential address to the American Economic Association, Olivier Blanchard, a giant in academic macroeconomics research, went further to suggest that, thanks to ultra-low interest rates, higher debt can be financed through growth alone without necessarily ever having to raise taxes, not just in the United States but across advanced economies
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now I am extremely grateful that someone put my prediction in the record. For years, faith in low interest rates consumed Washington. Not only did the United States borrow heavily to take advantage of near-historic low interest rates; the U.S. Treasury and the Fed doubled down by issuing relatively short-term debt, in essence
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if the government just kept rolling over all principal and interest payments. Then again, there are countless instances when countries with strong growth rates and low interest rates suddenly ran into debt problems; real interest rates and growth rates are highly volatile. One also needs to ask whether hidden financial-repression taxes are
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it. The past few decades of rising dollar dominance have created a false sense in U.S. political circles (and among many economists) that ultra-low interest rates are almost certainly the future norm. Their complacency is classic “This Time Is Different” thinking. History suggests that the ultra-low real interest rates that
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high debt, an area where the former vice president had more nuanced views than he is usually credited with. 6. Olivier Blanchard, “Public Debt and Low Interest Rates,” American Economic Review 109, no. 4 (April 2019): 1197–1229. 7. Walter Bagehot, Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market (London: Henry S. King
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, March 2023). 10. Blanchard emphasized that the fact that the government can tax some of its interest payments reduces the cost. Blanchard, “Public Debt and Low Interest Rates.” Overall taxes, of course, are endogenous, so if the government starts collecting more taxes in one area, voters may push back in others. 11. Alvin
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, Alex Pienkowski, and Kenneth Rogoff (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2019), 102–150. Indeed, the correlation we conjectured even comes through in the period of ultra-low interest rates that followed our study. Greece, Italy, and Japan, the countries with the highest debt of our original sample group, all had dismal growth performances after
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) (PPP rates); “Major Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasury Securities,” Treasury International Capital (TIC) System (U.S. Department of the Treasury). 24. The point that low interest rates and slow growth in Japan might have spilled over into the United States was made by Gauti Eggertsson, Neil Mehrotra, and Lawrence Summers, “Secular Stagnation
The Dream of Europe: Travels in the Twenty-First Century
by Geert Mak · 27 Oct 2021 · 722pp · 223,701 words
quickly large companies in particular started to fall apart. It seemed the normal buffers barely existed any longer. The reason was simple: with the extremely low interest rates of recent years, debt cost almost nothing, so all profits could go to the shareholders. Holding resources or cash in reserve was for idiots. There
Fixed: Why Personal Finance is Broken and How to Make it Work for Everyone
by John Y. Campbell and Tarun Ramadorai · 25 Jul 2025
managing their risk exposure. We will illustrate this principle with three practical examples. First, it is common in many countries for mortgages to have initially low interest rates that reset after a year or two to a much higher rate. The low initial rates are known as “teaser” rates because they attract the
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and have substantial home equity. However, the growing availability of second mortgages, together with tempting opportunities to refinance and extract home equity in times of low interest rates (common worldwide in the first two decades of the twenty-first century), have reduced this form of saving.16 Some people may be reluctant to
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investments when real interest rates are unstable. Bonds rise in value when interest rates decline, protecting the income they generate from the consequences of a low-interest-rate environment; similarly, as we saw in chapter 6, stocks rise in value when their long-run returns decline, again protecting investors’ income from the impact
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of initial investment because insurance companies cannot earn high returns on the payments they receive from annuity purchasers. People may not understand the impact of low interest rates on the present value of a stream of income and may, especially at such times, wrongly perceive annuities to be exorbitantly expensive. In this situation
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, it may be appropriate to require people to annuitize a fraction of their wealth upon retirement. To keep annuities affordable even in the face of low interest rates, initial payouts should be deferred for ten or twenty years after the date of annuity purchase. This is another example of the general principle that
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money in target date funds until retirement. These funds hold long-term bonds that deliver capital gains when interest rates decline, buffering the impact of low interest rates on retirement income. Furthermore, Ruth would be encouraged to buy deferred-payout annuities at her or her spouse’s retirement date, and these annuities would
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holdings. Christmas clubs, popular in working-class communities in both the United States and the United Kingdom, are another example of savings products with very low interest rates. While they may have value as commitment devices to encourage saving for holiday gifts, they offer extremely poor returns. 22. See Anne Sibert, “The Icesave
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Father character enlightens us: “Under true free-market capitalism, the government would have no involvement in homeownership whatsoever.” They wouldn’t encourage it through artificially low interest rates, Fannie and Freddie, tax breaks, or a “Community Reinvestment Act,” but they wouldn’t discourage it either.* Rates would be set by market participants, based
Beyond the 4% Rule: The Science of Retirement Portfolios That Last a Lifetime
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retirement. What low bond yield means for sustainable withdrawal rates There have been concerns – voiced by several leading retirement income experts – that the era of low interest rates and low bond yields makes the SWR framework unlikely to hold up. Their argument is based on evidence that current bond yields are a strong
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perfect storm is a complete catastrophe, again caused by a combination of events that would be bad enough if they occurred separately: The global crash, low interest rates and the raising of their pensionable age created a perfect storm financially for anyone born in the 1950s. Stealing someone’s thunder – taking credit for
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of rogue pioneers; much like our own redlined suburbs, they are state projects. In the settlements, first-time homebuyers are eligible for subsidized mortgages at low interest rates to build houses on land they lease at discounted rates—a discount made possible on account of the land being stolen. Factories and farms are
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perfect storm is a complete catastrophe, again caused by a combination of events that would be bad enough if they occurred separately: The global crash, low interest rates and the raising of their pensionable age created a perfect storm financially for anyone born in the 1950s. Stealing someone’s thunder – taking credit for
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. This became one of the chief reasons that the overseas French Empire fell into British hands. While the British could borrow money easily and at low interest rates, France had difficulties securing loans, and had to pay high interest on them. In order to finance his growing debts, the king of France borrowed
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