How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors Behind Every Successful Project, From Home Renovations to Space Exploration
by Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner · 16 Feb 2023 · 353pp · 97,029 words
more like California High-Speed Rail. Average practice is a disaster, best practice an outlier, as I would later point out in my findings about megaproject management.7 Why is the track record of big projects so bad? Even more important, what about the rare, tantalizing exceptions? Why do they
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I’ve spent many years putting my answers into practice. In this book, I’m putting them into print. The focus of my work is megaprojects—very big projects—and lots of things about that category are special. Navigation of national politics and global bond markets, for example, is not something
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drivers of project failure and success that are universal. That explains the title. How Big Things Get Done is a nod to my expertise in megaprojects, which are big by anyone’s standards. But “big” is relative. For average homeowners, a home remodeling can easily be one of the most
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expensive, complex, challenging projects they ever tackle. Getting it right means as much or more to them as the fate of megaprojects means to corporations and governments. It is absolutely a “big thing.” So what are the universal drivers that make the difference between success and failure
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me. Then they gave up. Later, an official national audit confirmed my numbers, and the case was closed.2 That experience taught me that megaproject management may not be a field of what University of Washington public affairs professor Walter Williams called “honest numbers.”3 As simple as it should
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simply hadn’t been collected and analyzed. That made no sense when trillions of dollars had been spent on the giant projects increasingly being called megaprojects—projects with budgets in excess of $1 billion. Our database started with transportation projects: the Holland Tunnel in New York; the BART system in
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blame relative to politics.6 After debating in print, Kahneman invited me to meet and discuss matters further. I also arranged for him to visit megaproject planners so he could study their experiences firsthand. Eventually each of us came to accept the other’s position: psychology for me and politics
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forecasts right and managing your risks. In 2010, as China was launching one giant infrastructure project after another, Hong Kong’s Legislative Council approved a megaproject that was ambitious even by Chinese standards: the world’s first fully underground high-speed rail system, to be known as “XRL,” including the world
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Management: An Overview,” Project Management Journal 52, no. 6 (2021): 531–46, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3979164. Bent Flyvbjerg, “Make Megaprojects More Modular,” Harvard Business Review 99, no.6 (November–December 2021): 58–63, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3937465. Bent Flyvbjerg
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118 (December 2018): 174–90, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3248999. Bent Flyvbjerg and J. Rodney Turner, “Do Classics Exist in Megaproject Management?,” International Journal of Project Management 36, no. 2 (2018): 334–41, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3012134. Bent Flyvbjerg, ed
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–74, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2229700. Bent Flyvbjerg, “Why Mass Media Matter and How to Work with Them: Phronesis and Megaprojects,” in Real Social Science: Applied Phronesis, ed. Bent Flyvbjerg, Todd Landman, and Sanford Schram (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2012), 95–121, https://papers.
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37, no. 3 (August 2006): 5–15, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2238013. Bent Flyvbjerg, “Design by Deception: The Politics of Megaproject Approval,” Harvard Design Magazine, no. 22 (Spring–Summer 2005): 50–59, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2238047. Bent Flyvbjerg, Mette K
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Reviews 24, no. 1 (January 2004): 3–18, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2278352. Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius, and Werner Rothengatter, Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2003), https://amzn.to/3ELjq4R. Bent Flyvbjerg, “Delusions of Success: Comment on Dan Lovallo
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the storyline as vigorously as I defended the scholarship in our writing. Special thanks also to Alexander Budzier, my alter ego and closest collaborator in megaproject management. Many years ago, we committed to being partners through thick and thin. I hope Alex thinks I’ve kept my word as well
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Denmark], Beretning om Storebæltsforbindelsens økonomi, beretning 4/97 (Copenhagen: Statsrevisoratet, 1998); Bent Flyvbjerg, “Why Mass Media Matter and How to Work with Them: Phronesis and Megaprojects,” in Real Social Science: Applied Phronesis, eds. Bent Flyvbjerg, Todd Landman, and Sanford Schram (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2012), 95–121. 3. Walter
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Goldberger, Building Art: The Life and Work of Frank Gehry (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2015), 299; Bent Flyvbjerg, “Design by Deception: The Politics of Megaproject Approval,” Harvard Design Magazine, no. 22 (Spring–Summer 2005): 50–59. 5. Paul Israel, Edison: A Life of Invention (New York: John Wiley & Sons,
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g., singularly healthy, clever, or attractive. In project planning and management, I first used the term in my 2014 paper “What You Should Know About Megaprojects and Why” in Project Management Journal, where I defined uniqueness bias as the tendency of planners and managers to see their projects as singular. It
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in project management because project planners and managers are systematically primed to see their projects as unique; see Bent Flyvbjerg, “What You Should Know About Megaprojects and Why: An Overview,” Project Management Journal 45, no. 2 (April–May 2014): 6–19; Bent Flyvbjerg, “Top Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management:
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“the organization of the artist,” put in print for the first time in Harvard Design Magazine; see Bent Flyvbjerg, “Design by Deception: The Politics of Megaproject Approval,” Harvard Design Magazine, no. 22 (Spring–Summer 2005): 50–59. Gehry has used this setup on every project since the Disney Concert Hall to
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Project Management 31, no. 5 (May 2013): 760–74. 19. Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, 245–47. 20. Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius, and Werner Rothengatter, Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2003). 21. Statens Offentlige Utredninger (SOU), Betalningsansvaret för kärnavfallet (Stockholm: Statens Offentlige Utredninger, 2004
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255. 15. Joseph Campbell, The Hero with a Thousand Faces (San Francisco: New World Library, 2008). 16. Bent Flyvbjerg, “Design by Deception: The Politics of Megaproject Approval,” Harvard Design Magazine, no. 22 (Spring–Summer 2005): 50–59. The term one-building architect is used to designate architects known for mainly one
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Author interviews with Andrew Wolstenholme, May 27, 2020, May 28, 2021, and January 14, 2022. 4. Andrew Davies, David Gann, and Tony Douglas, “Innovation in Megaprojects: Systems Integration at London Heathrow Terminal 5,” California Management Review 51, no. 2 (Winter 2009): 101–25. 5. “Your ‘Deadline’ Won’t Kill You: Or
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Review 71, no. 1(January–February 1993): 97–108. 9. Author interview with Richard Harper, September 12, 2021. 10. Davies, Gann, and Douglas, “Innovation in Megaprojects: Systems Integration at London Heathrow Terminal 5,” 101–25. 11. Amy Edmondson, The Fearless Organization: Creating Psychological Safety in the Workplace for Learning, Innovation, and
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Melis, March 3, 2021; Manuel Melis, “Building a Metro: It’s Easier Than You Think,” International Railway Journal, April 2002, 16–19; Bent Flyvbjerg, “Make Megaprojects More Modular,” Harvard Business Review 99, no. 6 (November–December 2021): 58–63; Manuel Melis, Apuntes de introducción al proyecto y ponstrucción de túneles y
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“Ending World Hunger by 2030 Would Cost $330 Billion, Study Finds,” The Guardian, October 13, 2020. Using the conservative numbers from Flyvbjerg, Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management (2017)—that is, $6 trillion to $9 trillion per year—a 5 percent cost cut would equal savings of $300 billion to $450 billion
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38 (2): 338–68. Ansar, Atif, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn. 2014. “Should We Build More Large Dams? The Actual Costs of Hydropower Megaproject Development.” Energy Policy 69: 43–56. Ansar, Atif, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn. 2016. “Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth or Economic
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): 360–90. Ansar, Atif, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn. 2017. “Big Is Fragile: An Attempt at Theorizing Scale.” In The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management, ed. Bent Flyvbjerg. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 60–95. Anthopoulos, Leonidas, Christopher G. Reddick, Irene Giannakidou, and Nikolaos Mavridis. 2016. “Why E-
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Johnson. 1999. “Anchoring, Activation, and the Construction of Values.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 79 (2): 115–53. Charest, Paul. 1995. “Aboriginal Alternatives to Megaprojects and Their Environmental and Social Impacts.” Impact Assessment 13 (4): 371–86. Christian, Alex. 2021. “The Untold Story of the Big Boat That Broke the
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Hal. 2014. “Ald. Burke Calls Great Chicago Fire Festival a ‘Fiasco.’” Chicago Tribune, October 6. Davies, Andrew, David Gann, and Tony Douglas. 2009. “Innovation in Megaprojects: Systems Integration at London Heathrow Terminal 5.” California Management Review 51 (2): 101–25. Davies, Andrew, and Michael Hobday. 2005. The Business of Projects: Managing
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Innovation in Complex Products and Systems. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. De Bruijn, Hans, and Martijn Leijten. 2007. “Megaprojects and Contested Information.” Transportation Planning and Technology 30 (1): 49–69. De Reyck, Bert, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Ioannis Fragkos, and Jeremy Harrison. 2015. Optimism Bias
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Drew, Philip. 2001. The Masterpiece: Jørn Utzon, a Secret Life. South Yarra, Victoria, Australia: Hardie Grant Books. Drummond, Helga. 2014. “Is Escalation Always Irrational?” In Megaproject Planning and Management: Essential Readings, vol. 2, ed. Bent Flyvbjerg. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 291–309. Originally published in Organization Studies 19 (6). Drummond, Helga
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of Success: Comment on Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman.” Harvard Business Review 81 (12): 121–22. Flyvbjerg, Bent. 2005. “Design by Deception: The Politics of Megaproject Approval.” Harvard Design Magazine 22 (Spring/Summer): 50–59. Flyvbjerg, Bent. 2005. “Measuring Inaccuracy in Travel Demand Forecasting: Methodological Considerations Regarding Ramp Up and Sampling
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It.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy 25 (3): 344–67. Flyvbjerg, Bent. 2012. “Why Mass Media Matter and How to Work with Them: Phronesis and Megaprojects.” In Real Social Science: Applied Phronesis, eds. Bent Flyvbjerg, Todd Landman, and Sanford Schram. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 95–121. Flyvbjerg, Bent. 2013. “
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2021. “Four Ways to Scale Up: Smart, Dumb, Forced, and Fumbled.” Saïd Business School Working Papers. Oxford, UK: University of Oxford. Flyvbjerg, Bent. 2021. “Make Megaprojects More Modular.” Harvard Business Review 99 (6): 58–63. Flyvbjerg, Bent. 2021. “Top Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management: An Overview.” Project Management Journal 52
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Analysis Is Broken and How to Fix It.” Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis 12 (3): 395–419. Flyvbjerg, Bent, Nils Bruzelius, and Werner Rothengatter. 2003. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Flyvbjerg, Bent, and Alexander Budzier. 2011. “Why Your IT Project May Be Riskier Than
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‘Deadline’ Won’t Kill You.” Merriam-Webster. https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/your-deadline-wont-kill-you. Merrow, Edward W. 2011. Industrial Megaprojects: Concepts, Strategies, and Practices for Success. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley. Midler, Christophe. 1995. “Projectification of the Firm: The Renault Case.” Scandinavian Journal of Management 11 (
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(2): 226–51. Mitzenmacher, Michael. 2005. “Editorial: The Future of Power Law Research.” Internet Mathematics 2 (4): 525–34. Molle, François, and Philippe Floch. 2008. “Megaprojects and Social and Environmental Changes: The Case of the Thai Water Grid.” AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 37 (3): 199–204. Montealgre, Ramiro
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Social, Environmental, Institutional and Political Costs. London: Earthscan. Scudder, Thayer. 2017. “The Good Megadam: Does It Exist, All Things Considered?” In The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management, ed. Bent Flyvbjerg. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 428–50. Selznick, Philip. 1949. TVA and the Grass Roots: A Study in the Sociology of
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Methods and Empirical Evidence.” The European Physical Journal Special Topics 205 (1): 1–26. Sovacool, Benjamin K., and L. C. Bulan. 2011. “Behind an Ambitious Megaproject in Asia: The History and Implications of the Bakun Hydroelectric Dam in Borneo.” Energy Policy 39 (9): 4842–59. Sovacool, Benjamin K., and Christopher J
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. Cooper. 2013. The Governance of Energy Megaprojects: Politics, Hubris and Energy Security. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar. Sovacool, Benjamin K., Peter Enevoldsen, Christian Koch, and Rebecca J. Barthelmie. 2017. “Cost Performance and
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Scale Urban Development Projects and the New Urban Policy.” Antipode 34 (3): 542–77. Szyliowicz, Joseph S., and Andrew R. Goetz. 1995. “Getting Realistic About Megaproject Planning: The Case of the New Denver International Airport.” Policy Sciences 28 (4): 347–67. Taleb, Nassim N. 2004. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role
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Olympic Committee (IOC), ref1 International Renewable Energy Agency, ref1 Internet, ref1 intuitive judgments, ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5 iPod, ref1 Ireland, ref1 Iron Law of Megaprojects, ref1, ref2 iterations (see planning) Ive, Jony, ref1 James Webb Space Telescope, ref1, ref2 Japan, ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6, ref7 Jaws (movie),
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product model, ref1, ref2 McAllister, Ian, ref1 McKinsey & Company, ref1 McLean, Malcolm, ref1 Mead, Margaret, ref1 mean, regression to, ref1 means and ends, ref1, ref2 megaprojects, ref1, ref2, ref3 adjustments and, ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4 airports, ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6, ref7, ref8 anchoring and, ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4,
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ref29, ref30, ref31, ref32, ref33, ref34, ref35, ref36, ref37, ref38, ref39, ref40, ref41, ref42, ref43 commitment, escalation of, ref1, ref2 ending world hunger, as a megaproject, ref1, ref2 estimates and, ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6, ref7, ref8, ref9 experience and (see experience) fat-tailed distribution and, ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4
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Authors Bent Flyvbjerg is a professor at the University of Oxford and the IT University of Copenhagen, an economic geographer, and ‘the world’s leading megaproject expert’, according to global accounting network KPMG. He has consulted on over one hundred projects costing $1 billion or more and has been knighted by
The Story of Crossrail
by Christian Wolmar · 5 Sep 2018 · 292pp · 85,381 words
it encountered en route to completion. Contents Welcome Page About The Story of Crossrail Dedication Preface 1. The first Crossrail 2. The Crossrail concept 3. Megaprojects and mega-businesses 4. Saved but shelved 5. Crossrail revived 6. Seeing off the naysayers 7. Money, money, money 8. A daunting task 9. Digging
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Crossrail will follow this pattern and will therefore have no toilets, saving a huge amount on maintenance and servicing, but undoubtedly inconveniencing some passengers. 3. Megaprojects and mega-businesses With the palpable overcrowding of London’s transport network and the probability that the capital’s economy would continue to grow rapidly
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extra 30 per cent on the costs side, a calculation known as ‘optimism bias’. That is to reflect the fact that in the past many megaprojects have gone over budget, completely negating the original benefit–cost ratio calculation. This presents an extra hurdle for schemes to be given the go-ahead
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. Not surprisingly, even without ‘optimum bias’ being factored into the equation, the Treasury was deeply suspicious of these big projects – which are now dubbed ‘transport megaprojects’ – and subjected them to rigorous analysis. Its favoured tactic to avoid spending money was to announce further studies which would inevitably lead to delays, in
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of luck because another project, the Jubilee Line, was more in tune with the zeitgeist but the second time it was more fortunate. Research into megaprojects, those defined as costing billions rather than millions of pounds, provide some justification for the Treasury’s scepticism by highlighting the widespread tendency of promoters
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understate costs and overstate benefits. In an analysis of figures produced by the World Bank, the Danish economic geographer Bent Flyvbjerg, in his book on megaprojects, found that ‘cost overruns of 50 per cent to 100 per cent in real terms are common for large transport infrastructure projects, and overruns above
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make a mark in the short time they have in office and pressure from special interest groups and contractors for the over-optimistic view of megaprojects which in turn makes them more likely to be given the go-ahead. Once work on projects is put out to tender, there are considerable
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, the Major Projects Association, the industry’s representative organization, has acknowledged that ‘too many projects proceed that should not have done’.7 However, while some megaprojects have undoubtedly proved to be white elephants, with, in hindsight, little justification for their construction, many do produce considerable wider societal benefits when their overall
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impact is taken into account. More recent analysis, by the University College London Omega research team into transport megaprojects, is rather more supportive of the concept than Flyvbjerg, suggesting that the benefits of megaprojects need to be looked at in a wider context. While recognizing that overspending is a problem, the researchers
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politicians do not make hasty decisions over their viability while they are still being constructed or shortly after completion. The Omega team stressed that transport megaprojects ‘are “organic” phenomena rather than static engineering artefacts’,9 and thereby inevitably become ‘agents of change’. Of course, some of this change, such as increased
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a network that now does much more than simply serving Docklands, though that definitely remains its main task. Crossrail, on the other hand, is a megaproject created in one go as a huge new transport system for London, though, like the DLR, it may well evolve over time by, for example
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, intended to increase the capacity of the line linking Euston with Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow, was off the scale, even by the standards of megaprojects generally. Originally estimated to cost £2bn, the projected spending on the scheme was now £9bn, and, during the period when the Crossrail Business Plan was
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. Even costly disasters like the Big Dig in Boston* and the Scottish Parliament tend to get finished. There are relatively few remnants of half-built megaprojects dotted around the world. Following the passage of the bill, the legal status of Crossrail had to be established. An agreement between the Department for
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of what sort of governance structure should we have.’ This is a vital issue. Big projects like Crossrail can, as Flyvbjerg stresses in his book Megaprojects and Risk, get completely out of control. There is no shortage of examples, including two notable ones from Germany: the cost of the reconstruction of
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80 per cent to £4.65bn. Such cases are ever-present in the minds of Crossrail’s senior executives as a reminder that when a megaproject goes wrong, it can go very badly wrong. Even with the large contingency available, there is a risk that things will still go awry. Bechtel
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preliminary work had been undertaken at stations, the letting of these contracts really marked the beginning of the project. Crossrail was by then unstoppable. * A megaproject in Boston, Massachusetts, which entailed the rerouting of Interstate 93, a motorway running through the heart of the city, into a new 1.5-mile
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other such schemes, or whether it is a one-off, remains to be seen. 13. And another one? Many people, myself included, are sceptical of megaprojects. Such projects are all too often presented as the only possible solution when more modest schemes – or indeed other measures, such as encouraging people to
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the British with their love of understatement being embarrassed by their own achievements, together with the fact that the press, which is routinely hostile towards megaprojects, has made those involved in Crossrail understandably defensive. The City and the economists place great store by the economic benefits of the new railway. Their
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found it was one of the wonders of the age. Crossrail may well be viewed in the same light. Crossrail will go down as a megaproject that did not get out of control. In a speech in 2017, the programme director Simon Wright summarized neatly the key elements needed when beginning
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of the tunnels. The announcement had been widely anticipated in the industry and while the amount was relatively modest in relation to overspending by other megaprojects, notably the Jubilee Line Extension and the Channel Tunnel, it was still embarrassing enough to be slipped out at a traditional time for hiding bad
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train paths. Gordon Brown’s attempts to obtain private support for Crossrail largely failed, since investors do not like the long-term risks associated with megaprojects. It is cheaper for those drawing up such schemes to be honest about how much the private sector is prepared to put in, rather than
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of money. Since HS2 appears likely to proceed, there are many in the Conservative Party who baulk at spending yet more billions on another railway megaproject. The key issue is how to raise the money. New sources of funding are essential if the scheme is to go ahead. Fares will be
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Interview with author. 10 Michael Schabas, The Railway Metropolis: How Planners, Politicians and Developers Shaped Modern London, Institution of Civil Engineers, 2017, p. 96. 3. Megaprojects and Mega-businesses 1 Michael Schabas, The Railway Metropolis: How Planners, Politicians and Developers Shaped Modern London, Institution of Civil Engineers, 2017, p. 131. 2
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Transport, British Rail Network SouthEast, London Regional Transport and London Underground Ltd, January 1989, p. 19. 4 Bent Flyvbjerg, with Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rotherngatter, Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition, Cambridge University Press, 2003, p. 44. 5 Ibid. 6 Ibid., p. 45. 7 Quoted in ibid., p. 48. 8
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Omega Centre, Megaprojects Executive Summary: Lessons for decision-makers: an analysis of selected international large-scale transport infrastructure projects, UCL, 2012, p. 16. 9 Ibid., p. 20. 10
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Omega Centre, Megaprojects Executive Summary, p. 36. 11 Schabas, The Railway Metropolis, p. 52. 12 Ibid., p. 85. 13 Ibid., p. 51. 14 Ibid., p. 55. 15 Quoted
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ratios Crossrail project 83, 99, 153, 273 and the Chelsea–Hackney Line 70, 71 Kingston branch 105, 106 potential cross-London railways 91–2 transport megaprojects 45–54, 59 Bennett, Simon 143 Berkeley Homes 139, 149, 151, 154 Berryman, Keith 164–5 Bethlem Hospital cemetery, skeletons found at 201–2 bi
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testing regime 264–5 see also stations (Crossrail); tunnel boring machines (TBMs); tunnels (Crossrail) cost–benefit analysis agglomeration effects 38, 48, 152–3 of transport megaprojects 45–54 County of London Plan (1943) 25–6 Cross London Rail Links 69, 70, 73, 96, 119, 120, 125, 143 Business Case 95–6
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Works application 88–9 Gatwick Airport 121 G.E. Pensions Ltd 137 geology of London, and the Crossrail works 175, 177–8, 179, 224 Germany megaprojects 165 S-Bahn railways 36–7, 41, 107–8 GLA (Greater London Authority) 66, 94, 147, 151 GLC (Greater London Council) 28, 29, 34, 49
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residents, objections to Crossrail 78, 79–80 mayor of London, office of 84, 90–1, 146, 153, 161 Meads, Richard 34, 73 Meale, Alan 134 megaprojects benefit–cost ratios of 45–54, 59 cost escalation of 165 Metropolitan Line 7, 25, 42, 69, 71, 72, 92, 121, 122, 123–4, 215
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Crossrail 157–8 project delivery agreement for Crossrail 163, 164 and revenue from Crossrail fares 234 transport megaprojects, cost–benefit analysis of 45–54 Travelstead, G. Ware 56–7 Treasury and benefit–cost ratios of megaprojects 48, 49, 50–1 Crossrail station contracts 209 and the first Crossrail Bill 75–7, 82
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Tunnicliffe, Denis (now Lord) 64, 89 Twain, Mark 14 twin-bore tunnels 127 Tyburn tollgate 2 United States Embassy officials’ opposition to Crossrail 78–9 megaprojects 157, 269 tax increment financing 115–16 University College London, Omega research team 52, 54 Upper Lea Valley 278 vegetation, environmental impact on 131 Victoria
Food and Fuel: Solutions for the Future
by Andrew Heintzman, Evan Solomon and Eric Schlosser · 2 Feb 2009 · 323pp · 89,795 words
, cutting deals, and working the drillfloor. Indeed, the First Nations of the Mackenzie are one-third owners of what will become Canada’s first Arctic megaproject, right alongside corporate majors like Imperial, Shell, Conoco, and ExxonMobil, all of whom hold substantial reserves from the Arctic’s first wave of gas exploration
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. The result will be the continent’s single longest pipeline and the first megaproject of the twenty-first century: a 1,350-kilometre-long string of steel that would carry a twenty-year supply of natural gas to hungry
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delving deeper and deeper into remote territory to locate marketable fossil fuels, a trend that’s reflected in efforts to create “secure supplies” through energy megaprojects — everything from Canada’s oil sands to China’s Three Gorges Dam to a global wave of nuclear reactor construction — as we attempt to forestall
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the inevitable and final depletion of non-renewable energy. A surge in new megaprojects is accelerated by a series of tectonic economic shifts that are transforming previously cheap commodities like natural gas into one of Earth’s most strategic
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up costly Arctic reserves, including a competing $26 billion pipeline to tap the rich gas reserves of Alaska’s North Slope, a 3,200-kilometre megaproject championed by former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.7 In 2008, reports surfaced estimating that the construction cost of the Alaska pipeline had increased 50
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business spirit of the region. It’s precisely because Aboriginals have control that development is permitted and promoted. What this all means for the first megaproject of the twenty-first century is that the task of forging partnerships is potentially a bigger job than building the pipeline itself. The
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megaproject is the relationship, and that mantra shapes everything that happens along the Mackenzie. It’s been a long economic struggle to gain land claims and
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until 2010.12 So if it’s oil and gas you want, you must first reckon with the Mackenzie. But as locals engage with a megaproject, talk of renewables and energy alternatives seems to fade. In the Northwest Territories, for example, almost 50 percent of all funding for resource development in
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tundra and Arctic Ocean to drillers and shippers.14 In other words, the Mackenzie pipeline is a massive social, economic, and environmental experiment: Can a megaproject serve everyone? Despite the promise of a new Aboriginal– corporate partnership, the long-term consequences are still unclear. One 2001 pilot study by the United
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at current rates, more than half of the Arctic will be seriously threatened in less than fifty years.” Thanks to climate change, energy alternatives, and megaprojects, Canada’s North is on the cutting edge of our energy future. But in many ways, all North Americans are caught between the seductive lure
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of energy megaprojects, the dire need for energy conservation and alternative generation, and the economic and environmental consequences that loom in the decades to come. It is at
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this context, a multitude of local, national, and international citizen-based environmental groups. The 1970s saw an ever-growing number of proposals for new energy megaprojects coming under consideration, and many people — mostly environmentalists, but others as well — in Canada, the United States, and around the world began turning their attention
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two preceding decades energy demand had indeed been growing rapidly, fueled by low oil prices and the post-war economic expansion. For many of the megaproject proponents, the link between growth in energy use and growth in the GDP seemed not only strong historically but inflexible and essential. Of course new
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added to the political and economic consternation. The stage was thus set after 1973 for the fierce battles that erupted between environmentalists opposed to new megaprojects and mainstream interests who insisted on the crucial need to increase domestic energy supplies. The intensity of some of these conflicts was not lessened because
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and plan for energy security, and that economics did matter. Moreover, they met head-on one of the main criticisms of their opposition to various megaprojects. Instead of merely pointing generally to more efficient technologies and renewable energy sources when challenged as to how, exactly, the demand for energy was going
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particular topic, of course, has drawn more notice since the September 11, 2001, terror attacks.) As well, moderated demand weakened the viability of many proposed megaprojects and the Chernobyl accident specifically decreased acceptance of nuclear energy. Environmental attention related to energy began to centre on greenhouse gas emissions and air quality
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PATH TECHNOLOGIES Other than those that were in planning or under construction at the time of the 1983 soft energy study for Canada, few new megaprojects have gone forward. To the contrary, several existing nuclear units in Ontario have been shut down, and although some are supposed to be restarted, it
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management, 30, 40–46, 48, 49, 53, 57–60; Sinclair exposé of, 30, 46; and smaller abbatoirs, 51–47, 292n50. See also agribusiness; beef industry megaprojects, 237–38, 257. See also pipeline projects Mexico, 12, 17, 112 Mexico, Gulf of, environmental “dead zone” in, 9, 120 monoculture, 7, 10–11 Monsanto
The Emperor's New Road: How China's New Silk Road Is Remaking the World
by Jonathan Hillman · 28 Sep 2020 · 388pp · 99,023 words
when crossing Central Asia’s borders on foot and while hitching a ride across the Caspian Sea, the BRI is a middleman’s dream. Its megaprojects offer ample opportunities for bribery, kickbacks, and theft. These challenges are hardly limited to Central Asia. Indeed, the problem is not simply corruption where China
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international institutions and norms moderate today’s global connectivity competition. To understand these challenges, there is no better year to begin than 1869, when three megaprojects shrank the world. The U.S. transcontinental railway, the Suez Canal, and the Indo-European Telegraph leveraged new technologies to carry people, goods, and information
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“places in between” and the longer-term challenges they may pose for China’s BRI. After all, the BRI is a middleman’s dream. Its megaprojects and multitude of new connections offer ample opportunities for bribery, kickbacks, and theft.53 The world’s most corrupt sectors are construction, transportation, and extraction
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savviest among them have turned a contest among outside powers into a buffet of options for themselves. They do this directly, through open competitions for megaprojects. When Indonesia called for bids for a high-speed railway in 2015, for example, it was as if Sotheby’s put the Mona Lisa on
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profligate ways.” When the government canceled a hydroelectric project, he recalls, “I began hearing accusations that I had spent all the Government’s money on megaprojects which the country apparently did not need.” And when a bridge to Singapore was canceled, he writes, “I was flabbergasted. By allowing Singaporeans to dictate
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projects is difficult but essential. Sunk costs can be a powerful, and dangerously misleading, justification for spending even more. It is why management experts call megaprojects “Vietnams”—easy to begin and difficult and expensive to stop.94 Chinese projects are even harder to kill because the BRI is Xi’s signature
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sweeter than honey.”121 But with deeper engagement comes greater turbulence, and that saying also carries a warning. Honey is sweet, but like spending on megaprojects, it provides a temporary boost that soon wears off. Mountains are high, and oceans are deep; but like large amounts of debt, they are dangerous
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has space and plans to expand.8 The biggest threat to the success of Hambantota Port has always come from within Sri Lanka. Ideas for megaprojects come and go, but they rarely die. Before the Suez Canal became a reality, it was dreamt up, studied, and abandoned by a succession of
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political benefits of starting new projects are rarely around to be held accountable for their long performance.22 Colombo’s Lotus Tower is another Chinese megaproject with questionable utility. At $100 million, it is South Asia’s second-tallest building and, true to its name, looks like a metallic green stem
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red flags, no independent analysis of the railway’s cost appears to have been undertaken. Impressively, the project was completed ahead of time, unlike most megaprojects globally. Environmental groups, which objected to the line cutting through Tsavo National Park, failed to stop it. Some design changes were made, such as elevating
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encourage Beijing to increase the quality of its projects. These headwinds may also lift China’s “digital silk road.” Compared to ports, railways, and other megaprojects, digital infrastructure is often less risky financially while offering distinct strategic benefits. Even in friendly Pakistan, it is much easier for China to lay a
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22, 2019, https://www.csis.org/analysis/influence-and-infrastructure-strategic-stakes-foreign-projects. 20. Bent Flyvbjerg, “Introduction: The Iron Law of Megaproject Management,” in The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management, ed. Bent Flyv-bjerg (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017), 1–18, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2742088
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.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Serbia/40-km-an-hour.-The-slow-modernization-of-the-Serbian-railways-142933. 24. Bent Flyvbjerg, “What You Should Know about Megaprojects, and Why: An Overview,” Project Management Journal 45, no. 2 (April–May 2014): 6–19, https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1409/1409.0003.pdf
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, https://www.pmo.gov.my/2019/04/belt-and-road-initiative-not-chinas-plan-to-dominate-pm/. 94. Bent Flyvbjerg, “What You Should Know about Megaprojects, and Why: An Overview,” Project Management Journal 45, no. 2 (April–May 2014): 6–19, https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1409/1409.0003.pdf
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more prudent investments,” they cautioned. Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn, “Should We Build More Large Dams? The Actual Costs of Hydropower Megaproject Development,” Energy Policy, March 2014, 13, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2406852. 81. AidData, William and Mary College, “China’s Global
Utopias: A Brief History From Ancient Writings to Virtual Communities
by Howard P. Segal · 20 May 2012 · 299pp · 19,560 words
Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries viii Table of Contents 99 123 6 7 8 Utopia Reconsidered 139 The Growing Retreat from Space Exploration and Other Megaprojects 139 Nuclear Power: Its Rise, Fall, and Possible Revival—Maine Yankee as a Case Study 142 The Declining Belief in Inventors, Engineers, and Scientists as
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expect and demand insulation and protection from the world about them. Not surprisingly, their varied individual political agendas increasingly do not include taxpayer support for megaprojects such as super colliders and space stations. For that matter, whatever appreciation follows for the scientific, technological, and social scientific advances that allow for these
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63 but with different pagination. Shelley, Frankenstein, 193. Growing Expectations of Realizing Utopia Chapter 6 Utopia Reconsidered The Growing Retreat from Space Exploration and Other Megaprojects Nothing is more indicative of the fading of scientific and technological utopian fantasies from the sensibilities of ordinary Americans (and most other people) than the
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released declassified tapes stored at the John F. Kennedy Library in Boston reveal the president’s own doubts about the value of a moon landing megaproject months before his assassination.1 Certainly the two fatal space shuttle disasters of 1986 (“Challenger”) and 2003 (“Columbia”) severely damaged public confidence in the space
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, did an actual scientist (Harrison Schmidt, a geologist) walk on that surface. Instead, there was considerably more grass-roots skepticism about the value of these megaprojects in view of more pressing needs on earth. Meanwhile, some conspiracy theorists still maintained that the original moon landing had been faked and that NASA
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unveiled the start of an improved version of the footage that might quell some doubts when completed. The same skepticism, of course, applies to other megaprojects such as the so-called “Star Wars” anti-missile defense system and the Superconducting Super Collider in Texas, though it should be said that the
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that wind energy may not constitute the panacea it has been touted to be. For that matter, the actual costs to ratepayers of wind energy megaprojects such as Cape Wind’s 130 turbines have been calculated by skeptics to be considerably higher than originally contended. Meanwhile, federal law requires that the
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Belief in Inventors, Engineers, and Scientists as Heroes; in Experts as Unbiased; and in Science and Technology as Social Panaceas The growing retreat from such megaprojects as nuclear power plants extends to a declining belief in inventors, engineers, and scientists as heroes; in experts as wholly objective; and, most broadly, in
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, War Stars: The Superweapon and the American Imagination, 2nd edn. (Amherst: University of Massachusetts Press, 2008 [1988]). 7 “Star Wars” continues to be a possible megaproject in one form or another and is commonly understood in its basic structure and operation. On its historical background, see Franklin, War Stars. Concerning the
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engineering. Safe, efficient, and comparatively cheap nuclear power stations are their envisioned principal energy sources.3 To these envisioned powers we must now add contemporary megaprojects intended to reduce, if not eliminate, global climate change. Historian James Fleming has analyzed this revived faith in “techno-fixes,” which makes the “Star Wars
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planet by launching a solar shield into orbit or suck carbon dioxide out of the air with hundreds of thousands of giant artificial trees. These megaprojects, moreover, are hardly limited to the United States. In 2008, shortly before the Beijing Olympics began, China had 30,000 artillerists shooting chemicals at clouds
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). Turkle, Sherry, Alone Together: Why We Expect More from Technology and Less from Each Other (New York: Basic Books, 2011). 266 Further Reading Contemporary Utopian Megaprojects Fleming, James, Fixing the Sky: The Checkered History of Weather and Climate Control (New York: Columbia University Press, 2010). Franklin, H. Bruce, War Stars: The
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McNamara, Robert 104–105, 106, 112, 113, 166 “McNamara Line” 105 Medieval Machine, The: The Industrial Revolution of the Middle Ages (Gimpel) 236 “megachurches” 11 megaprojects: and climate change 187–188 retreat from 139ff, 157 skepticism toward 141–142 taxpayer support for 122, 150 Megatrends and Megatrends 2000 (Naisbitt and Aburdene
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’s utopianism 213–217 Latin American utopias 21–23 literary accounts 1–2, 47–50, 54–55 location of 13 Index 287 utopias (Continued) and megaprojects 139–142 and millenarian movements 8–9 minor utopias 251, 252–253 and modernization 105–106 and “near future” 164, 186 necessity for ability to
Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation
by Byrne Hobart and Tobias Huber · 29 Oct 2024 · 292pp · 106,826 words
neatly within modern cultural norms, which favor relentless fine-tuning and incremental innovation. 2 Perhaps even more surprisingly, we find that technological breakthroughs and scientific megaprojects share an underlying dynamic with financial bubbles in one very specific sense: they coordinate behavior to build a complex future. Against the standard view in
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canonical example of the free market demonstrates. While full-on anarcho-capitalism might not be the best approach for running large tech firms or scientific megaprojects, it’s important to emphasize that hierarchical structures can be oppressive and that procedure overload often produces mediocre results, if not outright failure. As we
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about as much as one dollar today, the timing of profits doesn’t matter. But everything is not what needs to happen; the bubbles and megaprojects that produce transformative innovation are specific events. Initially, these developments resist categorization because they occur before there’s even a defined category, sector, or industry
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past century. An important category of human activity that follows the patterns of bubbles but doesn’t always get lumped in with them is the megaproject. The Manhattan Project, the Apollo program, and the development of Covid-19 vaccines were all bubbles. They attracted floods of capital and talent toward specific
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it to invest in another round of spending, and the process repeats. Bubbles are not only mechanisms for coordinating parallel innovation in emerging technologies. Scientific megaprojects also often follow a bubble-like dynamic, as we will explore in Chapters 3 and 4. One of the most impressive aspects of the Manhattan
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any individual part in isolation would be worthless except for demonstration purposes or to confirm theories. It took a megaproject to make nuclear weapons a reality. As a species of inflection bubble, a megaproject accomplishes a set of tasks in parallel that would never be accomplished serially. Today, the dynamic of parallelization
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never put to widespread use, it may be the case that mass technological progress requires the intersection of a toy and a speculative mania or megaproject. De Solla Price, Science Since Babylon (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1975), 57. 150 In fact, a cluster sometimes seems to revolve around a place
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not participating in the bubble are perceived as greater than the bubble’s identifiable risks. Whether they form in technology, in markets, or in scientific megaprojects, bubbles channel our thymotic energies, ambitious visions, irrational exuberance, and economic desires toward the realization of a future that is radically different from the present
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of naming a few sites of potential future bubbles, we’ll now return to our analysis of the key features of the technologies and scientific megaprojects we explored in Part II. By extracting the defining characteristics of innovation-accelerating bubbles, we’ve identified five overarching traits shared by all of the
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technologies and megaprojects we’ve covered: Definite optimism and constrained vision Innovation-accelerating bubbles are driven by and organized around a sense of definite optimism or a constrained
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, necessarily defined by the past and present and restricted by the historical, and proceed toward the future. Technologies of transcendence The technological breakthroughs and scientific megaprojects we’ve covered in this book have all contained a religious or spiritual dimension. While in our age of stagnation the future has collapsed into
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is this intense commitment to transcendence from which the low time preferences arise that ambitious, long-term, large-scale projects demand. In this sense, scientific megaprojects like the Apollo program and technologies like Bitcoin resemble the cathedrals built in Europe between the 11th and 13th centuries: spectacular monuments that reify the
The Profiteers
by Sally Denton · 556pp · 141,069 words
, putting him among the fifty wealthiest people in America and making him the 127th richest person in the world. Specializing in what it calls “multiyear megaprojects,” Bechtel received $24 billion in new contracts during 2013. Its fifty-five thousand “employees”—most of whom are subcontractors—are divided among projects in six
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on mythological proportions. Over time Bechtel emerged as the primary builder of the dam, so that today the company website highlights it as its flagship megaproject. What is undisputed about the consortium’s provenance is the fact that on a February morning in 1931, a group of twelve West Coast contractors
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mass transit systems and other major infrastructures. The Bechtel Corporation changed its name to the Bechtel Group, and Shultz assumed a formal role in developing megaprojects in newly industrialized countries. Under his guidance, the company evolved from a direct construction company into project management, engineering, and construction management, which, by 1980
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American economy had slipped into the most severe recession since World War II, with the rest of the world soon following. Steve Jr., seeing “few megaprojects in the offing” as a result of the downturn, decided to expand operations even further onto the international stage. The nuclear power market, which had
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the Big Dig would have absorbed the lion’s share of corporate energy and resources. But for Bechtel, it was just one of dozens of megaprojects happening simultaneously by the late 1990s—many dogged by the same complaints of cost overruns. Bechtel had landed a gargantuan $20 billion Hong Kong deal
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, water delivery, disaster relief, urban planning, nuclear waste, management of government facilities, homeland security, nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, counterterrorism technology, environmental remediation, data collection, aerospace, megaproject financing, telecom start-ups, e-commerce, and more. This global power grab was of massive proportions unlike anything seen in world history. Characteristically, Bechtel put
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, their website along with corporate histories provided a wealth of information. The company’s website is brimming with financial and technical details about its worldwide megaprojects throughout history. The three corporate-sponsored company histories—The Bechtel Story, A Builder and His Family, and Bechtel in Arab Lands—were a veritable treasure
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a Big Deal? You Don’t Know Bechtel,” SF Weekly, June 18, 2003. “In fact, if they had their way”: Dowie, “Bechtel File,” 33. “multiyear megaprojects” . . . “markets” . . . “signature projects” . . . “tens of thousands” . . . “a third of the world’s” . . . “many of the largest” . . . “global leader in design”: www.bechtel.com. “to industrial
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: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 2011), 148. “If the Reagan administration”: Brownstein and Easton, Reagan’s Ruling Class, 144. “the story goes”: Fehner, 1. “few megaprojects”: www.bechtel.com/BAC-Chapter-6.html. “For one thing”: Nies, Unreal City, 200. “We have to approach” . . . “bailout teams”: www.bechtel.com/BAC-Chapter
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-Up.” Phoenix, July 27, 2006. Berrigan, Frida. “Privatizing the Apocalypse.” tomdispatch.com, March 30, 2006. www.tomdispatch.com/post/72765. Bischoff, Glenn. “Master of the Megaproject.” Telephony 242, no. 22 (June 3, 2002). Bishop, Elizabeth. “ ‘Blown Away by the Winds Like Ashes’: Biopower in Egypt’s #25 Jan. and Iraq’s
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, 149, 150, 162, 173, 189–90, 202, 207, 211, 218, 224, 257, 261, 282, 291, 307 move into international work by, 53, 57, 59 multiyear megaproject specialization of, 9 “mystique” as member of global power elite held by, 11 overview of Bechtel family at, 7–9 private ownership structure of, 45
A Line in the Tar Sands: Struggles for Environmental Justice
by Tony Weis and Joshua Kahn Russell · 14 Oct 2014 · 501pp · 134,867 words
and simply to convince potential producers that it was worth the capital investment, whereas in recent years, industry has had to dress up the entire megaproject in green clothing. Years ago, efforts to reduce ecological impacts were seldom trumpeted, mostly because they were seldom practiced. It is important to recall that
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reframing the discourse. Although fossil fuels are by their very nature non-renewable and unsustainable, the tar sands are now being sold as a “sustainable” megaproject. The provincial government of Alberta has some experience in this regard, having faced a crisis of legitimacy in the 1990s over its dependency on natural
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of development, and who is really benefiting? Not only are we experiencing impacts at ground zero in Alberta and along pipeline corridor routes, but this megaproject affects communities all around the world through the devastation caused by climate change. What are we leaving to future generations? We need to shift away
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country (see chapter 22). Aboriginal rights are enshrined in Section 35 of the Constitution Act of 1982.7 So there are legal grounds to challenge megaprojects that are destroying First Nations’ rights to hunt, trap, and fish—in direct violation of their Constitutional rights, which are the highest law in Canada
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their Dene peoples’ struggle with what would soon be known as the most destructive industrial project on the face of the earth: the tar sands megaproject. These three women were related to each other and represented three generations of one prominent family in Fort Chip known as the Deranger clan. They
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past few years, grassroots struggles to stop the spread of pipeline infrastructure have been central to conflicts over the fate of the Athabasca tar sands megaproject. Companies are proposing new pipeline systems, and are seeking to repurpose existing pipelines, to accommodate the transport of bitumen and the expansion of the industry
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whose pedestal has been pulled away, fall of his own weight and break in pieces. —Étienne de La Boétie, Discourse on Voluntary Servitude Like the megaproject it opposes, the movement to shut down the tar sands is remarkably ambitious. Its aim is to bring the world’s largest energy project grinding
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? Most of them have been used against firms like Enbridge and Suncor in the past few years, and none seems to have seriously weakened the megaproject. Of course, to have their full effect, tactics have to be implemented relentlessly, on an escalating trajectory, with an ever-broadening base of participation. But
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to elite governance and unaccountable decision-making. Large-scale jurisdictional contestation can create a perception of uncertainty and unpredictability that weakens the appeal of the megaproject for would-be investors, thereby weakening the project’s support system. Conclusion A secondary targeting approach, applied in a relentless and escalating way, with a
Transport for Humans: Are We Nearly There Yet?
by Pete Dyson and Rory Sutherland · 15 Jan 2021 · 342pp · 72,927 words
British public, but it shares common ground with similar rail projects all over the world. It’s certainly not the first massive and controversial transport megaproject, and there’s a good chance it won’t be the last. In this way it is similar to time-saving inventions of the past
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‘Over time, over budget, under benefits, over and over again.’ 10 Bent Flyvbjerg, a Danish transport geographer, coined this phrase as the Iron Law of Megaprojects. These are the massively expensive initiatives that collectively comprise roughly 8% of global GDP.11 In the United Kingdom we have Crossrail (the Elizabeth Line
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fallacy is a direct and expensive outcome of optimism bias. Cost overruns are universal A comprehensive study spanning ninety years and covering 1,500 transport megaprojects in twenty countries found that nine out of ten of them experienced cost overruns.13 For rail, the average cost escalation was 45%, for tunnels
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.15 In 2017 the Institute for Government showed that when smaller projects in the UK overran, they did so less severely.16 Evidence suggests that megaprojects operate on a scale so large that, even when they try to keep it simple, they end up breaking new ground, transforming landscapes and gaining
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Team (www.bi.team/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/BIT-Behavioural-Government-Report-2018.pdf). 10 B. Flyvbjerg. 2017. Introduction: the iron law of megaproject management. In The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management, edited by B. Flyvbjerg, pp. 1–18. Oxford University Press. 11 B. Flyvbjerg. 2014. What you should know about
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megaprojects and why: an overview. Project Management Journal 45(2), 6–19. 12 B. Flyvbjerg. 2016. The fallacy of beneficial ignorance: a test of Hirschman’s
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-matter). 17 D. R. Hofstadter. 1979. Gödel, Escher, Bach. Hassocks: Harvester Press. 18 European Court of Auditors. 2020. EU transport infrastructures: more speed needed in megaproject implementation to deliver network effects on time. Report, October (www.eca.europa.eu/Lists/ECADocuments/SR20_10/SR_Transport_Flagship_Infrastructures_EN.pdf). 19 Department
The Geek Way: The Radical Mindset That Drives Extraordinary Results
by Andrew McAfee · 14 Nov 2023 · 381pp · 113,173 words
be objectively assessed, that are visible to everyone, and that can be pieced together to create the final product. Management researcher Bent Flyvbjerg has studied megaprojects like bullet train networks, undersea tunnels, and the Olympic Games. He’s reached the same conclusion as the business geeks who are currently disrupting industry
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after industry. As Flyvbjerg puts it, “I’ve researched and consulted on megaprojects for more than thirty years, and I’ve found that two factors play a critical role in determining whether an organization will meet with success
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of Delays, Billions in Overruns: The Dismal History of Big Infrastructure,” New York Times, November 28, 2021, www.nytimes.com/2021/11/28/us/infrastructure-megaprojects.html. 19 “Overly optimistic forecasts”: Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011), 250. 20 talked to more than a
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-10?r=US&IR=T. 56 “I’ve researched and consulted on megaprojects”: Bent Flyvbjerg, “Make Megaprojects More Modular,” Harvard Business Review, November–December 2021, https://hbr.org/2021/11/make-megaprojects-more-modular. 57 Copenhagen’s City Circle Line: Flyvbjerg, “Make Megaprojects More Modular.” 58 partially opened in 2017: Nick Paumgarten, “The Second
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!,” The New Yorker, February 6, 2017, www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/13/the-second-avenue-subway-is-here. 59 “The tunnel modules”: Flyvbjerg, “Make Megaprojects More Modular.” 60 “The Tesla’s stopping distance”: Patrick Olsen, “Tesla Model 3 Falls Short of a CR Recommendation,” Consumer Reports, May 30, 2018, www
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No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends
by Richard Dobbs and James Manyika · 12 May 2015 · 389pp · 87,758 words
China into Africa: trade, aid, and influence
by Robert I. Rotberg · 15 Nov 2008 · 651pp · 135,818 words
The End of Growth
by Jeff Rubin · 2 Sep 2013 · 262pp · 83,548 words
Whole Earth Discipline: An Ecopragmatist Manifesto
by Stewart Brand · 15 Mar 2009 · 422pp · 113,525 words
City for Sale: The Transformation of San Francisco
by Chester W. Hartman and Sarah Carnochan · 15 Feb 2002 · 518pp · 170,126 words
The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations
by Daniel Yergin · 14 Sep 2020
The Default Line: The Inside Story of People, Banks and Entire Nations on the Edge
by Faisal Islam · 28 Aug 2013 · 475pp · 155,554 words
The Narcissist You Know
by Joseph Burgo · 239pp · 73,178 words
A Burglar's Guide to the City
by Geoff Manaugh · 17 Mar 2015 · 238pp · 75,994 words
The Planet Remade: How Geoengineering Could Change the World
by Oliver Morton · 26 Sep 2015 · 469pp · 142,230 words
Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies
by Nick Bostrom · 3 Jun 2014 · 574pp · 164,509 words
California
by Sara Benson · 15 Oct 2010
Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought
by Andrew W. Lo · 3 Apr 2017 · 733pp · 179,391 words
The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life When Robots Rule the Earth
by Robin Hanson · 31 Mar 2016 · 589pp · 147,053 words
The Story of Stuff: The Impact of Overconsumption on the Planet, Our Communities, and Our Health-And How We Can Make It Better
by Annie Leonard · 22 Feb 2011 · 538pp · 138,544 words
Triumph of the City: How Our Greatest Invention Makes Us Richer, Smarter, Greener, Healthier, and Happier
by Edward L. Glaeser · 1 Jan 2011 · 598pp · 140,612 words
To the Edge of the World: The Story of the Trans-Siberian Express, the World's Greatest Railroad
by Christian Wolmar · 4 Aug 2014 · 323pp · 94,406 words
Down the Tube: The Battle for London's Underground
by Christian Wolmar · 1 Jan 2002 · 723pp · 98,951 words
Palaces for the People: How Social Infrastructure Can Help Fight Inequality, Polarization, and the Decline of Civic Life
by Eric Klinenberg · 10 Sep 2018 · 281pp · 83,505 words
The Metropolitan Revolution: How Cities and Metros Are Fixing Our Broken Politics and Fragile Economy
by Bruce Katz and Jennifer Bradley · 10 Jun 2013
Endure: Mind, Body, and the Curiously Elastic Limits of Human Performance
by Alex Hutchinson · 6 Feb 2018 · 403pp · 106,707 words
The Great Reset: How the Post-Crash Economy Will Change the Way We Live and Work
by Richard Florida · 22 Apr 2010 · 265pp · 74,941 words
Execution: The Discipline of Getting Things Done
by Larry Bossidy · 10 Nov 2009 · 244pp · 76,192 words
Some Remarks
by Neal Stephenson · 6 Aug 2012 · 335pp · 107,779 words
Circus Maximus: The Economic Gamble Behind Hosting the Olympics and the World Cup
by Andrew Zimbalist · 13 Jan 2015 · 222pp · 60,207 words
Mysteries of the Mall: And Other Essays
by Witold Rybczynski · 7 Sep 2015 · 342pp · 90,734 words
No Is Not Enough: Resisting Trump’s Shock Politics and Winning the World We Need
by Naomi Klein · 12 Jun 2017 · 357pp · 94,852 words
Radical Cities: Across Latin America in Search of a New Architecture
by Justin McGuirk · 15 Feb 2014 · 246pp · 76,561 words
Smart Cities: Big Data, Civic Hackers, and the Quest for a New Utopia
by Anthony M. Townsend · 29 Sep 2013 · 464pp · 127,283 words
The Sport and Prey of Capitalists
by Linda McQuaig · 30 Aug 2019 · 263pp · 79,016 words
An Empire of Wealth: Rise of American Economy Power 1607-2000
by John Steele Gordon · 12 Oct 2009 · 519pp · 148,131 words
Cadillac Desert
by Marc Reisner · 1 Jan 1986 · 898pp · 253,177 words
Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve And/or Ruin Everything
by Kelly Weinersmith and Zach Weinersmith · 16 Oct 2017 · 398pp · 105,032 words
The Looting Machine: Warlords, Oligarchs, Corporations, Smugglers, and the Theft of Africa's Wealth
by Tom Burgis · 24 Mar 2015 · 413pp · 119,379 words
Parkland: Birth of a Movement
by Dave Cullen · 12 Feb 2019 · 368pp · 108,222 words
Uncharted: How to Map the Future
by Margaret Heffernan · 20 Feb 2020 · 335pp · 97,468 words
The World's First Railway System: Enterprise, Competition, and Regulation on the Railway Network in Victorian Britain
by Mark Casson · 14 Jul 2009 · 556pp · 46,885 words
You've Been Played: How Corporations, Governments, and Schools Use Games to Control Us All
by Adrian Hon · 14 Sep 2022 · 371pp · 107,141 words
Windfall: The Booming Business of Global Warming
by Mckenzie Funk · 22 Jan 2014 · 337pp · 101,281 words
Lonely Planet Iceland
by Lonely Planet
The Thinking Machine: Jensen Huang, Nvidia, and the World's Most Coveted Microchip
by Stephen Witt · 8 Apr 2025 · 260pp · 82,629 words
New Laws of Robotics: Defending Human Expertise in the Age of AI
by Frank Pasquale · 14 May 2020 · 1,172pp · 114,305 words
In the Realm of Hungry Ghosts: Close Encounters With Addiction
by Gabor Mate and Peter A. Levine · 5 Jan 2010 · 504pp · 147,660 words
Markets, State, and People: Economics for Public Policy
by Diane Coyle · 14 Jan 2020 · 384pp · 108,414 words
American Foundations: An Investigative History
by Mark Dowie · 3 Oct 2009 · 410pp · 115,666 words
There Is No Place for Us: Working and Homeless in America
by Brian Goldstone · 25 Mar 2025 · 512pp · 153,059 words
Energy and Civilization: A History
by Vaclav Smil · 11 May 2017
Among the Braves: Hope, Struggle, and Exile in the Battle for Hong Kong and the Future of Global Democracy
by Shibani Mahtani and Timothy McLaughlin · 7 Nov 2023 · 348pp · 110,533 words
Into the Ice: The Northwest Passage, the Polar Sun, and a 175-Year-Old Mystery
by Mark Synnott · 14 Apr 2025 · 443pp · 140,219 words
The Rough Guide to Seoul
by Rough Guides · 26 Sep 2018 · 305pp · 87,259 words
How to Spend a Trillion Dollars
by Rowan Hooper · 15 Jan 2020 · 285pp · 86,858 words