overconfidence effect
description: bias in which a person's subjective confidence in their judgements is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgements
2 results
Scarcity Brain: Fix Your Craving Mindset and Rewire Your Habits to Thrive With Enough
by Michael Easter · 25 Sep 2023 · 318pp · 95,383 words
control. When someone else is late to a meeting, they’re lazy. When we’re late, it’s because of traffic. Or there’s the “overconfidence effect.” This is how we tend to have excessive confidence in our beliefs. Scientists found that people who said they were “99 percent certain” on an
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. I wasn’t backing down. She wasn’t backing down. It was as if we were both sipping strong cocktails of the fundamental attribution error, overconfidence effect, and naive cynicism. During the stalemate, I vented to this friend. I explained to him in agonizing detail why I was right, why my wife
Time Paradox
by Philip G. Zimbardo and John Boyd · 1 Jan 2008 · 297pp · 96,509 words
Wiser?” Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 108: 441–85 (1979). For a contrary view, see D. Dunning and A. L. Story, “Depression, Realism and the Overconfidence Effect: Are the Sadder Wiser When Predicting Future Actions and Events?” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 61: 521–32 (1991); and R. M. Msetfi et
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and Thinking: The Role of Affect in Social Cognition, ed. J. Forgas (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000), 178–97. 26. D. Dunning et al., “The Overconfidence Effect in Social Prediction,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 58: 568–81 (1990); and R. Vallone et al., “Overconfident Predictions of Future Actions and Outcomes