polycrisis

Shutdown: How COVID Shook the World's Economy
by Adam Tooze
Published 15 Nov 2021

Or the culmination of a process of decline stretching over many decades. Or the insularity of their political cultures?24 In the EU, “polycrisis” is a term that has come into use in the last decade. European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker borrowed the idea from the French theorist of complexity Edgar Morin.25 Juncker used it to capture the convergence between 2010 and 2016 of the eurozone crisis, the conflict in Ukraine, the refugee crisis, Brexit, and the Europe-wide upsurge in nationalist populism.26 Polycrisis neatly captures the coincidence of different crises but it doesn’t tell us much about how they interact.27 In January 2019, China’s president Xi Jinping gave a widely remarked speech on the duty of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) cadres to anticipate both black swan and gray rhino risks.28 That summer, Study Times and Qiushi, the two journals through which the CCP communicates doctrinal statements to its more intellectual cadres, published an essay by Chen Yixin that elaborated on Xi’s aphoristic observations.29 Chen is a protégé of Xi Jinping and would be chosen during the coronavirus crisis to lead the party’s cleanup operation in Hubei province.30 In his 2019 essay Chen put the question: How did risks combine?

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While crowds of desperate Americans gathered at Charles de Gaulle Airport, France’s outspoken finance minister Bruno Le Maire denounced Trump’s actions as an “aberration.”9 “There is no longer any coordination between Europe and the USA.” Le Maire went on to draw wider conclusions: “Europe must defend itself alone, protect itself alone, and be able to confront things alone, to come together as a sovereign bloc to defend its economic interests because nobody—including the U.S. evidently—will help us.”10 Corona was becoming a polycrisis. Though the UK had been exempted from Trump’s travel ban, there was little cause for glee there. On March 12, Prime Minister Johnson adopted an unfamiliar tone of seriousness. Gone was the braggadocio about superheroes and handshakes. “I must level with you, level with the British public—more families, many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time.”11 Johnson asked Britons to prepare themselves for tough measures that might be necessary “at some point in the next few weeks.”

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The challenge was to make the best of the ample options that were available. * * * — Of the many miscalculations made by the Brexiteers in their dealings with Brussels, the most basic was to assume that the UK was ever the first item of business, either in Brussels or Berlin. It was not. Not in 2016, when the EU was recovering from its “polycrisis” over Ukraine, Greece, and the surge of refugees from Syria, and not in December 2020, as the moment of Brexit truth arrived. As 2020 ground to an end, the main preoccupations of the EU were the pandemic, the unfinished business of the July compromise, and the uncertainty surrounding relations with China and the United States.

Left Behind
by Paul Collier
Published 6 Aug 2024

Since there were two different trends in process, the pertinent questions were why a large group of countries had been falling behind for many decades and what should be changed in consequence. Embarrassingly, the happy answers to the wrong question were published just as many of the poorest countries were diverging faster than ever as the poly-crisis ripped into them. The shock of the new? Both the bleak overall picture and the evidence from heroic exceptions warranted decisive and timely action. Instead, what arrived was the poly-crisis. COVID-19 struck in January 2020, followed by climatic shocks, acute international tensions over Taiwan, the war in Ukraine and the conflict between Hamas and Israel. It became a world dominated by uncertainty in which governments needed to take reassuring actions that restored confidence.

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But big sister was engrossed in the cumbersome internal process by which it might redefine its purpose to something easier to achieve, and change its measures of poverty so that rising global poverty would not even need to be reported. Before it had finished this nefarious process, international anger at its failure to respond to the poly-crisis boiled over and reached its Board of Management. The Bank was correctly judged to be dilatory in disbursing funds that could have enabled the governments of the poorest countries to prevent their economies imploding. In February 2023, in humiliating circumstances, its president was forced to resign.

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viii According to the specialist wealth-focus magazine Forbes, as of 2023. ix This is a central conclusion of Pillars of Prosperity, by Tim Besley and Torsten Persson (2011). In 2023 their work was recognized as an outstanding contribution of social science by the British Academy. x New Zealand suffered a poly-crisis in miniature as its thick state administering extensive social protection became unaffordable unless taxes were increased. Unfortunately, the shock coincided with the emergence of a small third party which held the balance of power, and this made the tax increases politically too difficult. xi Precisely the same process of a merger between former Italian and British colonies was mirrored on the other side of the Red Sea, forming the state now known as Yemen.

Capitalism and Its Critics: A History: From the Industrial Revolution to AI
by John Cassidy
Published 12 May 2025

But had global capitalism ever faced so many serious challenges simultaneously? Writing in the Financial Times in October 2022, Adam Tooze, an economic historian at Columbia University, described the current conjuncture as a “polycrisis,” noting: “In the polycrisis the shocks are disparate, but they interact so that the whole is even more overwhelming than the sum of the parts.”4 In a demonstration of just how fraught and contested the times were, some leftist commentators even criticized the term polycrisis, claiming that it obfuscated the fact that there was only one underlying crisis: capitalism itself. “Pandemics, climate breakdown, wars and global deflationary pressures are not mere externalities of the capitalist system but intrinsic to its operations—long predicted by a diverse group of thinkers,” Farwa Sial, a research fellow at the University of Manchester, wrote on the Developing Economics blog.5 Throughout the history of capitalism, critics had argued that it was amoral, inequitable, and destructive, but rarely had the criticisms come together in such dramatic fashion.

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World Economic Forum, Global Risks Report 2023, 9, figure B, https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_Report_2023.pdf.   4.   Adam Tooze, “Welcome to the World of the Polycrisis,” Financial Times, October 28, 2022, https://www.ft.com/content/498398e7–11b1–494b-9cd3–6d669dc3de33.   5.   Farwa Sial, “Whose Polycrisis?,” Developing Economics (blog), January 27, 2023, https://developingeconomics.org/2023/01/27/whose-polycrisis.   6.   Samuel Bowles and Wendy Carlin, “Shrinking Capitalism: Components of a New Political Economy Paradigm,” Oxford Review of Economic Policy 37, no. 4 (Winter 2021), 794, https://academic.oup.com/oxrep/article/37/4/794/6423495.   7.  

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“The Weberian attempt to prevent it from being confounded with greed has finally failed, as it has more than ever become synonymous with corruption.” Streeck made this comment in 2014. The subsequent decade only confirmed his point.12 So, what was the prognosis for capitalism, two and a half centuries after Richard Arkwright opened Cromford Mill? One scenario was that the polycrisis would continue, intensify, and possibly even prove fatal—an outcome that Streeck predicted. Citing the examples of Polanyi, Marx, Keynes, Schumpeter, and others, the German scholar readily acknowledged that many of capitalism’s most illustrious theorists had mistakenly predicted its demise. “I believe that this time is different,” he added.13 The list of systemic ills that Streeck identified was similar to the ones that Guterres and the WEF would produce years later: it included slow growth in output and productivity, “oligarchic redistribution,” rising political extremism, and a lack of effective global leadership.

Chaos Kings: How Wall Street Traders Make Billions in the New Age of Crisis
by Scott Patterson
Published 5 Jun 2023

British historian and economist Adam Tooze coined a term for the converging, expanding risks the world faces—the polycrisis. It’s a world in which pandemics, inflation, recession, the climate crisis, nuclear escalation, and other risks combine to magnify harm via a series of vicious feedback loops. A pandemic triggers supply chain snags, causing prices to rise, tipping economies into recession, resulting in a global hunger crisis that affects poor people in low-income countries, leading to destabilizing mass migration that triggers political unrest and topples governments. “A polycrisis is not just a situation where you face multiple crises,” Tooze wrote.

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See also Covid-19 “Systemic Risk” memo on, 20–23, 164 Taleb’s research on, 16, 19–20 Pareto-Levy distribution, 69 Paris Accord (2015), 186, 238, 251 Parker, Sean, 124 Paul, Ron, 42, 135 Paulsen, Hank, 107, 136 Paulson, John, 113, 114, 139 Peiser, Benny, 194–95, 243 Pence, Mike, 251 Pershing Square Capital Management, 2, 3, 4, 176 Pew Research Center, 122 Phillips, Keith, 247 Piedmont Lithium, 247, 248 Pimco, 24 Pinker, Steven, 124 polycrisis, 35 Popper, Karl, 62, 65–66 Powell, Jerome, 287 Powers, Jimmy, 52, 56 precautionary principle, 36–37, 189–90 Precautionary Principle, The (Taleb et al.), 16, 36 Princeton University Global Systemic Risk project, 31 Process Driven Training (PDT), 95–97 Project on Security and Threats, University of Chicago, 34 Protégé Partners, 156 Putin, Vladimir, 32, 280, 285–86 Rajaratnam, Raj, 55 Rand, Ayn, 136 Raytheon Technologies, 168 Read, Rupert, 36, 183–89, 243–46, 252 Reagan, Ronald, 39, 45, 130, 136 Real World Risk Institute (RWRI), 166 Regression Analysis of Time Series (RATS), 227, 229 Relativity Media, 94 Renaissance Technologies, 96 Reuters, 204–5 RichterX website, 288 Rittel, Horst, 240 Romer, Paul, 230 Rothschild, Baron, 4 Roubini, Nouriel, 119 Rubin, Robert (Bob), 141–42, 218 Russell, Bertrand, 66 Russia, 78, 280 climate change and oil income of, 236, 237 hedge fund bet on debt of, 13, 60 invasion of Ukraine by, 223, 239, 272, 280, 285–86 methane release in permafrost areas of, 36 Taleb’s put options on bank debt of, 60 Russian roulette, risk in, 211 Rylance, Mark, 244 Ryskex, 259–60, 262, 265 Saba Capital, 176 Safe Haven (Spitznagel), 272, 273–75 SALT Conference, 139, 140 Samama, Frédéric, 224–25 Sanders, Bernie, 237 Sargent, Tom, 226 Scaramucci, Anthony, 139, 140 Schaeffer’s Investment Research, 111 Schatzker, Erik, 165 Schmalbach, Marcus, 259–67 Science & Finance firm, 85 September 11, 2001, terrorist attack, 35, 64, 71, 76–77, 103, 105, 144 Shehadi, Nadim, 149 Shirer, William, 53–54 Shriver, Lionel, 105 Simplify Asset Management, 277 Simplify Downside ETF, 276–77 Sims, Chris, 226 Singer, Peter, 283 Skin in the Game (Taleb), 135, 218–19, 286 SkyBridge Capital, 139 Smith, Adam, 44, 78 Smith, Noah, 217 Smith, Yves, 23 Smith, Zadie, 243, 244 Social Bubble Hypothesis, 179 Sontag, Susan, 73 Sornette, Didier, 83–92, 93, 131–33, 143, 157 Dragon Kings concept of, 31, 91–92, 132–33, 142, 144–46, 202, 205, 288 risk-tempting trait of, 83, 85, 93, 177 Soros, George, 58, 65, 69 Sparks, Richard, 111 Spinks, Lynwood, 94 Spitznagel, Amy, 50, 93, 135 Spitznagel, Eric, 41 Spitznagel, Mark CBOT membership and trading done by, 12, 44–49, 137 Empirica’s launch by, 12, 13, 61–62, 65 Empirica’s trading strategy and, 13, 38, 66–68, 113, 134, 143 experience of organized chaos of trading, during his first visit to CBOT, 39–40 family background and education of, 12, 40–42, 44 global market response to Covid-19 spread and, 11–12, 14–15 learnings about trading from Klipp at CBOT, 40, 42–44, 47, 48, 50, 110, 137 trading strategy of, 136 Statista, 32 Stigler, George, 226 Stiglitz, Joseph, 236 Stockholm Resilience Centre, 215–16 Summers, Larry, 140–42 Sussman, Donald, 61, 64, 65, 68 Sutherland, Rory, 216 Systemic Risk Masterclass webcast, 267 “Systemic Risk” memo (Taleb, Bar-Yam, and Norman), 20–23, 164 Tainter, Joseph, 202–3 Taleb, Nassim Nicholas background of, 12–13 Black Swan concept extensions by, 16 Chicago Mercantile Exchange trading experience of, 56–58, 70 concerns about the spread of Covid-19 and, 17–19, 162–63 decision to leave Empirica by, 12, 81–82, 99 Empirica’s launch and naming by, 13, 61–62, 65 Empirica’s trading strategy and, 13, 38, 66–68, 77, 103, 113, 143 Gray Swans and, 27, 31, 105, 114, 145–46 pandemics research by, 16, 19–20 panic now—panic early phrase used by, 21 role of at Universa, 13–14, 112–13, 129, 140, 271 success of, 114–15 “Systemic Risk” memo of, 20–23, 164 Universa investments of, 13, 16, 98, 120, 129, 190 Tepper, David, 140, 146 Tesla, 19, 177–78, 219–20, 238–39, 247, 261 Tetlock, Philip, 106 Thaler, Richard, 124 Thomson, John, 263, 264 Thunberg, Greta, 184–85, 186, 188, 225 Tillerson, Rex, 240 time preferences, 136 Tooze, Adam, 35 Tournant, Greg, 168–69 Townsend, Jessica, 244 Trump, Donald Ackman’s Covid-19 warning to, 5, 7 attack on the Capitol (January 6, 2021) and, 251 as a Black Swan event, 105 climate threat and, 186 Covid-19 response of, 17, 18–19, 23, 165, 167 Doomsday Clock response to election loss of, 235 economic conditions and rise of, 35, 122 election of, 151, 280 Goldstone and Turchin’s forecast about election loss of, 30 political extremes and protest movements and, 32, 33–34 Turchin, Peter, 29–30 Tversky, Amos, 78, 79 Twitter, 175, 178, 216, 282 Ukraine Russian invasion of, 223, 239, 272, 280, 285–86 Taleb’s visit to, 279–80 United Nations, 18, 204, 206, 251, 281 U.S.

The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump: What the Trade War Means for the World
by Philip Coggan
Published 1 Jul 2025

Prepare for a price shock’, ING, 28 March 2025, think.ing.com/articles/importing-european-cars-into-the-us-prepare-for-a-price-shock 2 ‘Trump tells Walmart to “eat the tariffs” instead of raising prices’, City AM, 17 May 2025, cityam.com/trump-tells-walmart-to-eat-the-tariffs-instead-of-raising-prices/ 3 John Maynard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace (London: Macmillan and Co., 1919) 4 samsung.com/us/aboutsamsung/sustainability/supply-chain/supplier-list/ 5 ‘Why Trump can’t build iPhones in the US’, Financial Times, 28 April 2025, ig.ft.com/us-iphone/ 6 Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024: Pathways out of the Polycrisis (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024), worldbank.org/en/publication/poverty-prosperity-and-planet 7 Saloni Dattani et al., ‘Life expectancy’, Our World in Data (2023), ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy 8 x.com/MikeDrucker/status/1917640525915591090 9 fdra.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/April-29-Footwear-POTUSLetter.pdf 10 Dorothy Neufeld, ‘Mapped: average tariff rates by country’, Visual Capitalist, 3 April 2025, visualcapitalist.com/tariff-rates-by-country 11 Davide Furceri et al., ‘Are tariffs bad for growth?

England: Seven Myths That Changed a Country – and How to Set Them Straight
by Tom Baldwin and Marc Stears
Published 24 Apr 2024

In the final years of her reign, constitutional shifts had taken place at the very same time that tensions between people grew. Ugly old scars over social class or immigration were reopened. Divides have widened between north and south, towns and cities, young and old. Multiplying global problems – the so-called ‘polycrisis’ of pandemics, mass migration, war and climate change – have pushed voters this way and that with many of them losing faith in politics to make any difference. It was in this context that England became fertile territory for myth-makers of all kinds and particularly for an angry kind of politics.

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His account, given to a newspaper two decades later, of spending a night in the cells may have been invented because he wanted to be more like the posh English boys he admired so much.61 Ultimately, Johnson’s antics in this uncivil culture war served only as a gigantic technicoloured distraction from the very real challenges facing both Establishment institutions and the country itself. Lifted off its moorings The early decades of the twenty-first century have often been described as an era of ‘polycrisis’. After terror attacks in the United States at the start of this century came the war in Iraq, then there was the financial crash which in turn was followed by austerity, the Covid pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and renewed crisis in the Middle East. Like the tremors before an earthquake, the period of calm between each of these crises is getting ominously shorter.

Carbon: The Book of Life
by Paul Hawken
Published 17 Mar 2025

GO TO NOTE REFERENCE IN TEXT a pod of orcas: Caitlin Gibson, “The Call of Tokitae,” The Washington Post, December 5, 2023, washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/interactive/2023/tokitae-lolita-orca. GO TO NOTE REFERENCE IN TEXT anxiety and panic course through: Tyler Austin Harper, “The 100-Year Extinction Panic Is Back, Right on Schedule,” The New York Times, January 26, 2024, nytimes.com/2024/01/26/opinion/polycrisis-doom-extinction-humanity.html. GO TO NOTE REFERENCE IN TEXT turned the table: Báyò Akómoláfé, “Let’s Meet at the Crossroads,” commencement address to Pacifica Graduate Institute, May 29, 2021, YouTube video, 1:00:17, youtube.com/watch?v=Lh2QmobEMFg, text: pgiaa.org/alumni-resources/12044.

Limitarianism: The Case Against Extreme Wealth
by Ingrid Robeyns
Published 16 Jan 2024

And, since their drive for capital accumulation is focused on the short term, they have allowed global warming to crescendo into climate disaster, which has already had devastating effects across vulnerable communities in the Global South. These catastrophes are leading to increased migration streams away from the Global South, which is in turn leading to increasing xenophobia in countries of the Global North. We are thus witnessing a polycrisis, much of which can be traced back to the way the global economic elite are pushing their own agenda. All of this social and economic upheaval suits fascist politicians nicely, as they can twist these developments to their own ends, further undermining democracy from within. It should be no surprise that once these fascists seize power, they start dismantling the “liberal” elements of our liberal democracies, including fundamental human rights.