quantitative easing

The Insatiable Machine

by Trevor Jackson  · 15 Mar 2026  · 270pp  · 104,133 words

, that is class conflict. So too when workers strike for higher wages, or when governments bail out banks or central banks support asset prices through quantitative easing. Economists are used to thinking that the sum of numerous individual decisions can add up to unintentional or even paradoxical consequences. The creation, expansion, and

The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy

by Richard Duncan  · 2 Apr 2012  · 248pp  · 57,419 words

The Credit Cycle How Have They Done so Far? Monetary Omnipotence and the Limits Thereof The Balance Sheet of the Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing: Round One What Did QE1 Accomplish? Quantitative Easing: Round Two Monetizing the Debt The Role of the Trade Deficit Diminishing Returns The Other Money Makers Notes Chapter 6: Where Are

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. When seen through the framework of the quantity theory of credit, the rationale for the stimulus packages, the bank bailouts, and the multiple rounds of quantitative easing becomes obvious: the government is desperate to prevent credit from contracting. Chapter 6, Where Are We Now?, takes stock of the current state of the

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create $1.7 trillion of new fiat money, an amount equivalent to 12 percent of the U.S. GDP. That rescue operation became known as quantitative easing, round one (QE1). It will be described in greater detail in Chapter 5. EXHIBIT 1.6 Commercial Banks’ Vault Cash and Reserves to Total Liabilities

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Americans who were losing their manufacturing jobs to low-wage Chinese competitors. Think of the Federal Reserve’s actions since 2008. In two rounds of quantitative easing, the Fed created $2.3 trillion. That money is now on the Fed’s balance sheet. It is considered to be part of the U

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. Credit began to contract and the economy plunged into crisis. At that point the Fed had only one tool left, the printing press. Thus began quantitative easing (QE). EXHIBIT 5.2 The Federal Funds Rate Source: Economagic The Balance Sheet of the Federal Reserve The Fed has a balance sheet. It is

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its portfolio to raise the cash it needed; and, in the third quarter of 2008, it obtained a $300 billion loan from the Treasury Department. Quantitative easing began near the end of 2008. From that point, the Fed began buying credit instruments from the banks and paying for them by depositing money

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$33 billion in mid-2008 to $860 billion by the end of that year. By September 2011 they had grown to $1.6 trillion. Quantitative Easing: Round One Quantitative easing is a euphemism for fiat money creation. The “quantity” referred to is the amount of fiat money in existence. The creation of additional fiat

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has lowered the federal funds rate to 0 percent, QE is its only remaining policy option for stimulating the economy. During the first round of quantitative easing (QE1), the Fed focused on buying agency- and GSE-backed securities from the banks. Those assets were primarily the debt that had been issued or

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trillion in new fiat money into the credit market should not be underappreciated–particularly considering movements in stock prices after QE1 came to an end. Quantitative Easing: Round Two Five weeks after QE1 ended on March 31, 2010, the U.S. stock market experienced a flash crash when, in one day, stock

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over the risks of a double-dip recession began to take hold. In late July, Fed governors began dropping hints that a new round of quantitative easing (QE2) was on the way. When Fed Chairman Bernanke confirmed as much in late August, the stock market took off again, rising to a post

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.4.) EXHIBIT 5.4 The U.S. Budget Deficit and the U.S. Current Account Deficit Source: Congressional Budget Office and Bureau of Economic Analysis Quantitative easing was required to plug that gap. Out of the $1.75 trillion in fiat money the Fed created during QE1, it spent $300 billion acquiring

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a recession year. During the first half of 2011, GDP expanded by only 0.8 percent, despite the stimulus provided by the second round of quantitative easing, which injected approximately $500 billion into the economy during the first half of the year.) It is also significant that the gap between credit growth

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fiscal policy blocked, only they have the power to prevent that outcome. They will not hesitate to use that power—and to use it forcefully. Quantitative easing (QE) works best when combined with fiscal stimulus, as Bernanke explained in November 2002.7 Forced to act alone, the Fed will have to be

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diversified portfolio: 1. Commodities generally perform well in an inflationary environment and suffer in times of disinflation or deflation. Gold and silver benefit most from quantitative easing, which undermines public confidence in the national currency. 2. Stocks tend to rise (1) in a healthy economic environment, (2) when central banks create money

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remains unchanged. The Fed, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan have all launched more than one round of quantitative easing in recent years. Finally, there is also intervention by a central bank with the express purpose of fixing or moving a currency’s value. China

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of the currencies that are not pegged can be highly volatile. Moreover, short-term currency movements are notoriously difficult to predict. Quantitative Easing and Asset Prices The immediate effect of quantitative easing is to push interest rates down and to push stock prices and commodity prices up. As just mentioned, in a capitalist system

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case. Today, interest rates are determined not only by the demand for money but also by the supply of money. Consider the second round of quantitative easing. Between November 2010 and mid-2011, the Fed created $600 billion and used it to buy government bonds. That allowed the government to borrow money

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also pushed up commodity prices. It is well understood that fiat money creation causes inflation. In fact, the Fed justified launching the second round of quantitative easing by citing the threat that deflation poised to the economy, implicitly admitting that it was creating fiat money in order to cause prices to rise

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moved significantly higher when QE2 began and then fell when it ended. Therefore, the evidence is very persuasive that, at least over the short term, quantitative easing has the effect of pushing up the price of bonds, stocks, and commodities. And, when bond prices rise, their yield (i.e., interest rates) falls

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two was $1 trillion in 2009, $814 billion in 2010, and will be roughly $800 billion in 2011, a cumulative shortfall of $2.6 trillion. Quantitative easing was required to plug that gap. The Fed expanded its balance sheet by approximately $2 trillion over those three years. Looking ahead, the government’s

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budget deficit is likely to remain significantly larger than the U.S. trade deficit for many years. Consequently, additional rounds of quantitative easing should be anticipated. More fiat money will be required to finance the budget deficit if interest rates are to remain low. In the unlikely event

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’s Great Depression (Rothbard) Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Mutual Market Fund Liquidity Facility (AMLF) Asset-backed securities (ABSs) Asset prices: inflation and deflation and quantitative easing and Austerity program option, for U.S. Balance of payments: asset prices and currencies and foreign central banks’ creation of fiat money and foreign exchange

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reserves global imbalances government finance and quantitative easing and U.S. and foreign exchange reserves Banking sector: commercial banks, credit creation, and decline in liquidity reserves commercial banks’ credit structure current financial health

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savings glut theory of on Milton Friedman policy responses to credit expansion and New Depression Bodin, Jean Bonds: in diversified portfolio effect of stimulus on quantitative easing and Bush, George W. Business cycles, theories of Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting (Mitchell) Capital adequacy ratio (CAR) Capitalism, evolution to credit-based

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of end to buying of U.S. debt Citibank Commercial banks. See Banking sector Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) Commodities: in diversified portfolio inflation and quantitative easing and regulation of derivatives market and Congressional Budget Office (CBO): budget outlook scenarios government debt estimates Construction sector, in Mitchell’s theory of business cycles

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indebtedness Emotions, in Mitchell’s theory of business cycles Energy and energy prices. See also Solar initiative, proposed excluded from CPI in New Great Depression quantitative easing and England Equation of exchange European Central Bank Extended-baseline scenario, of Congressional Budget Office Fannie Mae: conservatorship of credit creation and decline in liquidity

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reserves quantitative easing and U.S. debt guarantees and FDIC Federal Reserve. See also Quantitative easing commercial bank reserves (1945–2007) end of gold standard, creation of fiat money, and expansion of credit policy actions

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2014 and Fiat Money Inflation in France (White) Financial sector: debt and lack of liquidity reserve requirements and credit expansion Fiscal stimulus, needed with additional quantitative easing Fisher, Irving theory of debt-deflation Fixed-interest-rate debt, in diversified portfolio Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States Food prices: deflation and

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excluded from CPI quantitative easing and Foreign causes, of credit expansion Bernanke’s global savings glut theory and central banks’ creation of fiat money and foreign exchange reserves possibility of

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exchange reserves. See Balance of payments Fortune magazine Fractional reserve banking, money creation through Freddie Mac: conservatorship of credit creation and decline in liquidity reserves quantitative easing and U.S. debt guarantees and Friedman, Milton General equilibrium, theory of Germany Glass–Steagall Act Globalization Global savings glut theory, of Bernanke Goldman Sachs

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investment option for results of spending cuts in Government-sponsored entities (GSEs): credit supply and GSE-backed mortgage pools inflation and deflation’s effects on quantitative easing and U.S. debt guarantees and Great Depression economic conditions during Friedman’s conclusions about Greece Greenspan, Alan Gross domestic product (GDP): change in value

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inflation derivative regulation and effects on asset classes Fisher’s theory of debt-deflation inflation in 2011 inflation likely in 2012 inflation likely without additional quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus New Great Depression scenarios and protectionism and wealth preservation during Innovation, in Mitchell’s theory of business cycles Interest rates, in U

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.S.: bond sales and cut by Federal Reserve to encourage credit expansion money supply and quantitative easing and trade balances and International Monetary Fund Ireland Jackson, Andrew Japan Johnson, Lyndon JP Morgan JPMorgan Chase Keynes, John Maynard Korea Labor market, changes in

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-deflation and Protectionism: inflation and New Great Depression scenarios and Purchasing Power of Money: Its Determination and Relation to Credit, Interest and Crises, The (Fisher) Quantitative easing: asset prices and balance of payments and beginning of QE1 QE2 QE3 Quantity theory of credit banking sector crisis and monetarism and principles of quantity

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Solar initiative, proposed Spain Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) Special purpose vehicles (SPVs), credit creation and Status quo option, for U.S. Stocks: in diversified portfolio quantitative easing and Switzerland Taiwan Tariffs: inflation and New Great Depression scenarios and Tax revenues: credit expansion’s effect on during Great Depression New Great Depression consequences

The Levelling: What’s Next After Globalization

by Michael O’sullivan  · 28 May 2019  · 756pp  · 120,818 words

, This is all very interesting, but what has it got to do with me? Most people can be forgiven for thinking that terms like “globalization,” “quantitative easing,” “trade protectionism,” and “international diplomacy” have little to do with their everyday lives. In fact the opposite is true. Our mortgages and pensions, the stresses

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will weigh down economic activity and fuel future crises. One cause of so much debt accumulation since the 2009 crisis is the monetary policy of “quantitative easing” (QE), that is, the buying of bonds and other securities by central banks, something that would have been unthinkable to earlier generations of central bankers

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. Quantitative easing is the financial equivalent of morphine, helping take pain away. Medicinal morphine is not supplied to patients on a continuous basis, and it is not

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bankers, however, appear to have a different view of the uses of financial morphine. A Westphalia for Finance Since 2009 central banks have aggressively pursued quantitative easing (and “zero” interest rates) in the hope of lowering borrowing costs and pushing up investment by companies and households. This has helped forestall financial crises

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. Under this agreement, the world’s major central banks would agree—or rather, their political masters would agree for them—to use extraordinary measures like quantitative easing only in truly exceptional preset conditions of great market and economic stress. The effects would be that markets would properly price economic and political risks

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therefore act to address those risks and fault lines, and, when extraordinary monetary policy needed to be launched, it would be more effective. By prohibiting quantitative easing or such extraordinary uses of the monetary toolbox (central banker speak for the many options they have invented to express their power), such a treaty

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. In more recent years, those with access to capital have been able to take advantage of low interest rates and the flatteringly positive effect of quantitative easing on asset prices, while also being less exposed to some of QE’s negative consequences (such as rising pension deficits).24 This has fueled explosive

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encouraged more debt issuance by companies and governments, and that this has led to inefficient allocation of capital. Unless central banks can fully disengage from quantitative easing and unless world debt levels are pared down, it will be impossible for growth to flourish again because the burden of debt on government spending

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take each option at a time, starting with infrastructure.19 In the period since 2011 the policy narrative has been dominated by the role of quantitative easing as a mechanism to support growth and raise inflation. It has succeeded in tranquilizing financial markets and lowering interest rates. But

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quantitative easing has not worked well in boosting economic potential. To be fair, the aim of quantitative easing has not been to change economic potential, but such has been the amplitude of quantitative easing and the power of central banks that many politicians appear comfortable

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, Detroit was not going to be made great again by the various policy efforts spawned by Washington, DC, such as corporate tax cuts, protectionism, and quantitative easing. Second, and more important, Detroit was a city deprived of intangible infrastructure, and it was obvious that the elements of intangible infrastructure—such as the

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finance specialists. I have taken his advice to heart and often ask my own sisters questions like, Have you heard of bitcoin? or, What is quantitative easing? Readers may pity my sisters. The point I am trying to get across is that even intelligent people (my sisters!) can find finance intimidating and

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Federal Reserve, which has increased interest rates, remains a massive holder of government debt and is intellectually and psychologically deeply invested in quantitative easing as an ongoing policy tool. Quantitative Easing The debate on central banks and bubbles has evolved from the time of Alan Greenspan. The orthodoxy in central banking now centers on

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than they were before the global financial crisis and where the lion’s share of their business takes place within, as opposed to between, regions. Quantitative easing, the chief element in central banks’ response to the financial crisis, has its roots in a 2002 speech by Ben Bernanke, then a member of

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late 2008 that it would buy mortgage-backed securities. From then on, consistent with the Bernanke speech, the Federal Reserve adopted a broad policy of quantitative easing—simply put, of buying government bonds in order to push down long-term interest rates (bond yields or rates move inversely to bond prices, so

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the fall in long-term interest rates, would feel better placed to invest and consume more. The best analogy I can think of to explain quantitative easing is a medical one. A person who has had a heart attack or a bad accident is often given adrenaline to stimulate the heart. This

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continued, its long-run net effect has become steadily less economically impactful.14 The initial changes in both market returns and growth in response to quantitative easing were strong, but in the period running up to the election of Donald Trump as US president, the immense effort of central banks had produced

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The impact of QE on markets has been profound, and in sharp contrast to the performance of real-world indicators. From the first announcement of quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve in 2009 to October 2018, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index is up nearly 270 percent, the European

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in the levelling of the international economic order. In this respect, they are central to several fault lines. Fault Lines One fault line is that quantitative easing has dramatically exacerbated wealth inequality, which is at its worst levels in decades. In theory, the aim of QE was to lower long-term interest

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be said that investors deserve some compensation for holding risky assets in uncertain times. Underlying this, in May 2017, when ECB president Draghi testified on quantitative easing to the Dutch Parliament, he was presented with a solar-powered tulip (by Pieter Duisenberg, son of the first ECB president, Wim Duisenberg) to underscore

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of the amount of debt they take on. The Future of Central Banking In 2018, the Federal Reserve began to step slowly, carefully back from quantitative easing programs, and other major central banks hinted at an era of policy normalization. The next recession or financial crisis will test their mettle. Have they

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. After the global financial crisis, international debt levels initially dropped (especially in the financial sector), but they have risen again, encouraged by the effects of quantitative easing. World indebtedness (households, companies, governments, and finance companies) stood at over 320 percent of world GDP at the end of 2018, above the 2008 peak

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-term stability in exchange for a rise in risk taking as debt mountains have grown. As we move through 2019, the combination of incrementally less quantitative easing and higher inflation could dramatically ignite this great debt burden. Historically, spikes in indebtedness are associated first with a rise in growth, followed by a

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provides. The best it can do is dull the pain of recession. One idea that has been circulated among central bankers, especially those fond of quantitative easing, is that in highly indebted countries like Japan, central banks should simply swallow the government debt that they hold on their balance sheets. In central

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budgets will be some important factors that will make the escape velocity from the recession very slow. Central banks may try wave after wave of quantitative easing, but they will have little effect, save to heighten currency volatility. For some time, the developed world will blame the recession on China and then

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is hard to think that many governments would take part in such a conference voluntarily; such a conference would only come after rounds of unsuccessful quantitative easing, wild currency volatility, and market stress and with the world facing the prospect of a long global recession. Once conceived, an international conference on debt

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would be an agreement to limit the use of extraordinary monetary policy in all but extreme market and economic situations. By restricting the use of quantitative easing in all but emergency circumstances (which could be defined according to threshold levels of inflation, growth, and market or financial system stress), governments and central

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banks would prevent quantitative easing being deployed in ways that dull markets’ sensitivities and that thereby encourage reckless leveraging and financial engineering by corporate actors. This treaty would also attune

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trade, before these issues are experienced in larger economies. They also all tend to suffer the same problems. For example, in the wake of the quantitative easing programs of the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, the currencies of countries like Norway and New Zealand became more volatile. Geopolitically, this

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(arguably less wealth inequality, a greater fiscal stimulus in the periphery countries, and better infrastructure, to highlight a few potential benefits) from policies such as quantitative easing. Third, this approach would curb imbalances in capital accounts across the eurozone and to a degree take some infrastructure spending decisions out of the hands

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Alchemy. Little, Brown, 2016. Kotlikoff, L., and S. Burns. The Coming Generational Storm. MIT Press, 2004. Krishnamurthy, A., and A. Vissing-Jorgensen. “The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy.” National Bureau of Economics Research (NBER) Working Paper 17555, October 2011. Krugman, P. Geography and Trade. MIT

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. Soros, G. The Tragedy of the European Union. Public Affairs, 2014. Spengler, O. The Decline of the West. Oxford University Press, 1991. Spiegel, M. “Did Quantitative Easing by the Bank of Japan Work?” Federal Reserve Bank San Francisco, economic letters, October 20, 2006. Steil, B. The Marshall Plan. Simon and Schuster, 2018

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(NBER) Working Paper 14631, 2009. Ther, P. Europe since 1989: A History. Princeton University Press, 2016. Thornton, D. “Evidence on the Portfolio Balance Channel of Quantitative Easing.” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper Series 2012-015A, 2012. Toffler, A. The Third Wave: The Classic Study of Tomorrow. Bantam Books, 1989

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Global Infrastructure Gaps.” McKinsey Global Institute. June 2016. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/capital-projects-and-infrastructure/our-insights/bridging-global-infrastructure-gaps. Woodford, M. “Quantitative Easing and Financial Stability.” National Bureau of Economics Research (NBER) Working Paper 22285, 2016. Woodhouse, A. S. P. Puritanism and Liberty. Dent and Sons, 1974. Wright

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Working Paper WP/15/27, February 2015, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp1527.pdf. 13. Though the Bank of Japan adopted quantitative easing in 2001, the wave of QE that has come to dominate markets started with the Federal Reserve’s first QE program in November 2008, when

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House of Nomura. 35. One or two dissenting members of the Bank of Japan’s board have warned of the risks from the consequences of quantitative easing, notably Takahide Kiuchi. See R. Yoshida and C. Baird, “BOJ Chief Faces Tougher Second Term as Reality of Monetary Easing Program Sinks In,” Japan Times

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, 160, 218 Putney Debates, 3–4, 12, 82, 84–85, 91 “QE inequality,” 190 the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue alliance), 244–245 Quah, Danny, 212 quantitative easing (QE) central banks, 16–18, 174–179, 183, 190 consequences, 44, 175, 177–178 and currency, 177 description, 175–176 and investment, 178–179 and

The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire

by Neil Irwin  · 4 Apr 2013  · 597pp  · 172,130 words

economic stagnation in the wake of a real estate and banking system collapse, the Bank of Japan begins a program of buying assets, known as quantitative easing. July 1, 2003—Mervyn King takes office as 119th governor of the Bank of England. November 1, 2003—Jean-Claude Trichet takes office as second

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time.” 2009 March 5—The Bank of England slashes its target interest rate to 0.5 percent and announces £75 billion of bond purchases, or quantitative easing. March 9—Global stock markets reach their lowest levels in over a decade, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 off 57 percent from its 2007

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peak. March 18—The Fed expands its own quantitative easing, to a total of $1.75 trillion in purchases of a variety of securities. March 24—Bernanke and Timothy Geithner, the treasury secretary and former

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with criticism of British bank regulation. August 6—King is outvoted on the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, favoring a larger expansion of quantitative easing than the majority. August 25—President Barack Obama announces that he is reappointing Bernanke to a second term as Fed chair. October 4—The socialist

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the powers of the Fed. August 27—Bernanke gives a speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium, raising the possibility of a new round of quantitative easing to address a slowdown in the U.S. economy. October 18—In Deauville, France, German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Nicolas Sarkozy walk on

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central bankers of the Group of 20 major world powers meet in Gyeongju, South Korea, where Bernanke explains the Fed’s expected new policy of quantitative easing to skeptical international policymakers. November 3—The Fed announces it will buy $600 billion in Treasury bonds in a second round of

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quantitative easing that will be widely known as QE2. It draws intensive criticism from American conservatives and the German, Chinese, and Brazilian governments. November 21—Ireland, under

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the ripple effects of the eurozone crisis on the British economy, the Bank of England policy committee unanimously agrees to an additional £75 billion of quantitative easing. October 19—At a farewell celebration for Trichet at the Frankfurt opera house, key players including Trichet, Draghi, Merkel, Sarkozy, and IMF chief Christine Lagarde

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pledge to buy bonds in unlimited amounts to combat market bets against the survival of the eurozone. September 13—The Fed announces a resumption of quantitative easing, pledging to continue buying bonds indefinitely unless the outlook for the job market in the United States improves or inflation becomes a threat. October 23

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back up to 0.25 percent and then to 0.5 percent. When the Japanese economy slumped again, Hayami’s BOJ took a different step: quantitative easing. “The BOJ had to do something to ease, but the governor did not want to do exactly the same thing, because it would be clear

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stop lending at all if rates fell too low. Instead, they joined the Fed and the Bank of Japan among those central banks experimenting with quantitative easing, or using newly created funds to buy longer-term government bonds in hopes of pushing more money out into the economy. They started with £75

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global markets in the first part of the year, even as the value of the pound had fallen due to the Bank of England’s quantitative easing policies, hiking the cost of imports. Additionally, a stimulus measure that had cut the value-added tax expired, meaning the purchase price of a wide

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focus on the problem we’re actually facing, not on the problem of our parents’ generation. Posen started voting for an extra £50 billion of quantitative easing at the October 2010 MPC meeting, and he became as consistent an advocate for easier money as Sentance was for tighter throughout 2011. Posen actually

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in the economy when short-term interest rates were already near zero. Ben Bernanke could explain all day long how this was different from the “quantitative easing policy” the Bank of Japan had tried a decade earlier. (Both central banks expanded their balance sheets, but the BOJ did so only by buying

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in the rarefied debates that went on inside the Eccles Building, though, it was a distinction without a difference. This being the second round of quantitative easing by the Fed, the approach adopted that November afternoon would soon be known around the world as QE2, whether Bernanke liked it or not. The

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-generated voices—whether they were in fact rabbits or bears or pigs or dogs was hard to say—engaged in a Socratic dialogue about “the quantitative easing” that had been launched by “the Ben Bernank” to benefit “the Goldman Sachs.” The video went viral; by mid-December, it had been viewed 3

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a dozen in total—Bernanke and his closest advisers had drafted a speech that laid out the decision of whether to do another round of quantitative easing as one of costs versus benefits. “As we return once again to Jackson Hole, I think we would all agree that, for much of the

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stubbornly sluggish. But after a summer in which economic data was pointing to a possible new recession and very low inflation, financial markets responded as quantitative easing shifted from a distant possibility in early August to a certainty in early November. Inflation expectations moved upward from 1.2 percent in August 2010

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that would allow the bank to ease policy without all the Sturm und Drang that would come with a QE3 program. The means by which quantitative easing affects the economy is called the portfolio balance channel. When the Fed buys $600 billion in Treasury bonds, as it did in QE2, the investors

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the duration of the Federal Reserve System Open Market portfolio” just sounds confusing to most people. It was, in a sense, a stealth form of quantitative easing—which was quite clear to the FOMC hawks. Richard Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota, and Charles Plosser again dissented. For the most part, though, public criticism was

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side was Adam Posen, who believed that a decelerating economy and rising unemployment was the main risk. He had argued for a new round of quantitative easing, for Britain’s own QE2, at every MPC meeting since October 2010. The majority of the committee, led by King, elected for no change. On

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as joblessness rose. At the same time, he laid the groundwork for more bond buying by the Bank of England, playing down the idea that quantitative easing is some exotic form of economic sorcery. “I regard QE as a perfectly conventional monetary policy tool,” King said. “This is something we can do

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exactly what the MPC will do.” At the committee’s early September meeting, King and the other members seemed on the verge of instituting new quantitative easing, with wide consensus that the British economy was in grave danger from Europe and that inflation was dissipating. But as much as everyone seemed to

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-2013 date previously announced. The Bank of England, judging that inflation was falling as economic growth in Britain remained weak, returned to the well of quantitative easing in February, expanding its bond purchases by another £50 billion. The Fed undertook “Operation Twist 2” at its June meeting, swapping out another $267 billion

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high unemployment rate, low inflation rate, and the U.S. federal funds rate close to zero, it is understandable that the Fed has adopted the quantitative easing monetary policy.” Then Zhou explained the Chinese position: that because the dollar is the international reserve currency, the United States has a special responsibility, one

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Federal Reserve had rescued investment banks and insurance companies, maintained zero interest rates for four years and counting, and bought $2 trillion in bonds through quantitative easing. The Bank of England had joined the ECB in becoming uncomfortably entangled in politics and the Fed in vastly expanding its balance sheet. And all

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noted that central bankers again and again had taken discrete policy actions, but done little to shape expectations for the future more broadly. All the quantitative easing in the world, he argued, would have little effect in isolation. People across the American, British, and, to some degree, European economies were convinced that

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speech was more carefully considered than most that he gave, calibrated with the knowledge that the world was looking to the Explorers Room for guidance. Quantitative easing and the other tools the Fed had been using since the end of 2008 to support growth had helped, Bernanke argued, and the downsides some

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we hope to inspire may live under its shadow for a long time to come,” King said. He didn’t rule out a return to quantitative easing, should conditions warrant it. But his tone was a far cry from that of Draghi or Bernanke, who offered open-ended pledges to return their

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sets monetary policy for the United States, through a controversial decision to cut interest rates and push money into the flailing U.S. economy through “quantitative easing,” or buying bonds using newly created money. The series of financial bailouts during the crisis exposed Bernanke and the Fed to vociferous criticism from the

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U.S. Plan to Pump Money into System,” Associated Press, November 8, 2010. In a seven-minute YouTube video: David Weigel, “The Man behind the Quantitative Easing Cartoon Speaks!” Slate, November 22, 2010. “The Federal Reserve . . . is not a repair shop”: Kevin M. Warsh, “The New Malaise and How to End It

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and bailout, 125–28 Osborne, new role proposed by, 247–48 Panic of 1866 bailout by, 27–28, 32–34 political independence, 121–22 quantitative easing (2009), 238–41 quantitative easing (QE2), 334–36, 340 Soros/Druckenmiller and devaluation of pound, 72–74 strong action, lack of, 138–39, 387–88 value of pound

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on, 84–85, 88–89 currency swaps with ECB (2011), 349–50 Hayami as governor, 87, 89–92 post–World War II power of, 86 quantitative easing by, 90–91, 255 zero-interest-rate policy, 87–88, 90–92 Bank of the Estates of the Realm, 24 Bank of the United States

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-Obama relationship, 181, 183 personal traits, 116–17, 118–19, 176, 200 as “Person of the Year,” 151, 184 public statement, first, 5–6 and quantitative easing (QE2), 259–61, 264–76, 279–80 reappointment (2010), 181–84, 189–93 and TARP, 156–57, 160 Teal Book, 262 on tight money approach

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, 31 Bonds ECB bond purchases. See Outright Money Transactions (OMT); Securities Markets Programme (SMP) federal, as war financing, 37 government bonds, large-scale purchase. See Quantitative easing market, economic importance of, 370 rating AAA as safe, 103 Boxer, Barbara, 189 Boyle, Andrew, 59 Brainard, Lael, 346 Bretton Woods (1944), 63 Bridgewater Associates

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Insurance Corporation (FDIC), 77–78 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) attendees of, 118 housing bubble, central bankers fears (2005), 104–7 meetings, structure of, 119 quantitative easing (QE2), 254–55, 274–76 Teal Book, 262, 330 Federal Reserve Board of Governors, 44–45 creation of, 35–36, 44–45 decision-making body

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, 331–32, 340 for money market funds, 150–51 nominal GDP targeting as topic, 338–39 Operation Twist, 331–32 Operation Twist 2, 340 quantitative easing (QE1), 263 quantitative easing (QE2), 255–80 Term Auction Facility (TAF), 131–32 Federal Reserve Transparency Act, 175–76 Feingold, Russell, 189 Feinstein, Dianne, 191 Feldman, Gerald D

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criticism by, 234–35, 237–39, 242 Mansion House Dinner speech (2009), 233 Mansion House Dinner speech (2010), 247 Mansion House Dinner speech (2012), 232 quantitative easing amount, outvoted on, 238–41 successor to. See Carney, Mark Klobuchar, Amy, 198–99 Knickerbocker Trust Co., 41 Kocherlakota, Narayana, 196, 264–65, 330, 332

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, 237–39, 242 Lacker, Jeffrey, 196, 264, 275, 385 Lagarde, Christine, 229, 289 Lamont, Norman, 73 Lamont, Thomas W., 42 Large-scale asset purchases. See Quantitative easing Laws, David, 244 Lazear, Edward P., 147 Lehman Brothers collapse, 139–41, 205 no bailout for, 141–42, 143–45, 151–52 Lehnert, Andreas, 104

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emergency relief, 150–51 near collapse (2008), 147–48 Money Market Investor Funding Facility (MMIFF), 151 Money supply decreasing, and inflation of 1970s, 69–71 quantitative easing goals, 263 Monti, Mario positive steps by, 353 as prime minister, 342, 347, 348 Moreau, Émile, 55 Morgan, John Pierpont First Name Club meeting (1910

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, 385 Price increases. See also Inflation self-perpetuation of, 65–66, 134–35 Privatization Greece, 309–16 Italy, 319 Provopoulos, George, 201–2, 203, 215 Quantitative easing by Bank of England (2009), 238–41 by Bank of England (2011), 334–36, 340 by Bank of Japan (2000), 90–91, 255 by Fed

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(QE1), 263 by Fed, second round. See Quantitative easing (QE2) goals of, 238–39, 255 Quantitative easing (QE2), 255–80 Bernanke briefing in South Korea about, 273–74 economic rationale for, 259–61, 263–65, 267–70 effectiveness of

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), 131–32 Thatcher, Margaret, 72 Thomsen, Poul, 285, 309 Tipping point theory, 267–68 Tobin, James, 70 Treasury securities Fed large-scale bond purchase. See Quantitative easing liquidity of, 236 Tremonti, Giulio, 319 Trichet, Jean-Claude. See also European Central Bank (ECB) remedies background information, 12, 112–15 beginning crisis, view of

Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance

by Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Mihm  · 10 May 2010  · 491pp  · 131,769 words

standard playbook. But many others seemed to come from another world, and in some cases another era. To the uninitiated, the names of these tactics—“quantitative easing,” “capital injections,” “central bank swap lines”—defy definition. But these and many other unorthodox weapons came off the shelf and were mustered into battle. Some

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was quite another. Nuclear Options One of the more remarkable weapons that the Fed and other central banks brought to bear on the crisis was “quantitative easing,” though Ben Bernanke advocates calling it “credit easing”; economist Paul Krugman argues that it should be called “qualitative easing.” Whatever its name, a modest version

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were clamoring for loans. While this strategy did nothing to ease the credit crunch, it made eminent sense from the standpoint of self-preservation. Using quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve would attack this problem on multiple fronts. It would wade into the financial system and start buying up long-term government debt

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the mortgage market. It would also help drive down the costs of borrowing for corporations. The Federal Reserve was not alone in its use of quantitative easing. In Britain, the Bank of England was caught in a liquidity trap as well. It had cut its benchmark rates close to zero, the lowest

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devised in the United States. But these moves failed to halt the prospect of debt deflation, and so in March 2009, in a bit of quantitative easing of its own, the Bank of England pledged to buy some £150 billion worth of government debt and corporate bonds. The European Central Bank followed

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corporate bonds to commercial real estate loans to commercial paper. This too helped prop up the value of a range of assets. The policy of quantitative easing, adopted by the Fed and other central banks, marked the culmination of this process: outright purchases of long-term debt in the open market. As

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how far the Fed would go to stop the crisis. Nor did the Fed ever deploy several other extremely controversial weapons. It might have used quantitative easing on a far more massive scale, manipulating the foreign exchange markets to weaken the value of the dollar, or even employed some version of a

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deficit, as long as the public debt is issued in local currency, a tactic known as “monetizing” the deficit. The mechanism is the same as quantitative easing, except that buying up debt has nothing to do with defeating deflation; it’s about making debt disappear. As money chases goods and pushes their

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Fed and other central banks eventually became investors of last resort, wading into government debt markets to inject still more liquidity into the system via quantitative easing. In their most radical interventions of all, central banks attempted to provide demand where demand had all but disappeared, purchasing mortgage-backed securities and other

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try to deliberately depreciate the dollar by “monetizing” the deficit, effectively printing money out of thin air. But then, it’s already doing that via quantitative easing. If the United States were an emerging market, it would have long ago suffered a collapse of confidence in its debt and its currency. That

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to mitigate it, triggering the sort of high inflation last seen in the 1970s. Other troubles may emerge as well. Extremely loose monetary policies and quantitative easing—combined with a growing reliance on the carry trade in the dollar—may foster an even bigger bubble than the one that just burst. Should

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up too fast too soon. Why? The most obvious reason is that the central banks of the advanced economies have used superlow interest rates and quantitative easing to create a “wall of liquidity” that has managed to surmount the “wall of worry” left behind after the crisis. And that’s helping to

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, a downward correction in gold prices carries significant risks. The dollar carry trade will likely unravel at some point, and central banks will eventually exit quantitative easing and abandon near-zero policy rates. Both these developments will put downward pressure on commodity prices, including gold. More generally, anyone who has blind faith

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the height of the recent crisis, concerns about deflation drove many governments to take drastic measures to prevent prices from falling. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing would normally trigger a round of inflation, but that did not happen in 2009. Deflation crept into the United States, the Eurozone, Japan, and even

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, “Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper no. 14826, March 2009. 151 “quantitative easing”: Ben S. Bernanke, “The Crisis and the Policy Response,” Stamp Lecture, London School of Economics, London, January 13, 2009, online at http://www.federalreserve.gov

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/newsevents/speech/bernanke20090113a.htm; Volker Wieland, “Quantitative Easing: A Rationale and Some Evidence from Japan,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper no. 15565, December 2009; Paul Krugman, “Fiscal Aspects of

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Quantitative Easing (Wonkish),” online at http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/ 2009/03/20/ fiscal-aspects-of-quantitative-easing-wonkish/; and Chris Giles, Cynthia O’Murchu, Steve Bernard, and Jeremy Lemer, “Quantitative Easing Explained,” Financial Times, February 5, 2009, online at http://www.ft.com

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, History, and Policy. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1982. Klyuev, Vladimir, Phil de Imus, and Krishna Srinivasan. “Unconventional Choices for Unconventional Times: Credit and Quantitative Easing in Advanced Economies.” IMF Staff Position Note, November 4, 2009. Online at http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2009/spn0927.pdf. Knight, Frank

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and Statistics 82 (2000): 127-38. White, Eugene N., ed. Crashes and Panics: The Lessons from History. Homewood, Ill.: Business One Irwin, 1990. Wieland, Volker. “Quantitative Easing: A Rationale and Some Evidence from Japan.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper no. 15565, December 2009. Online at http://www.nber.org/papers

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holdings of in India as investors of last resort as lenders of last resort lines of credit from monetary policy of overnight rates set by quantitative easing and SDRs purchased by see also Bank of England; Bank of Japan; European Central Bank; Federal Reserve central bank swap lines Central Europe see also

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created by lines of credit from liquidity trap and long-term loans to banks provided by LTCM bailout and open market operations of origins of quantitative easing and reform and sale of Bear Stearns and swap lines of threat of new bubbles and Volcker’s policies in Federal Reserve Board Federal Savings

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(Mills) procyclicality production, industrial productivity proprietary trading strategies protectionism see also tariffs Prussia Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP; Pee-Pip) public works projects Putin, Vladimir quantitative easing railroads Great Britain and Rajan, Raghuram Rand, Ayn random walk theory Rashomon (film) rating agencies reforms and see also specific ratings real estate boom price

Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State

by Paul Tucker  · 21 Apr 2018  · 920pp  · 233,102 words

stamp for its chair. The members’ long terms should, for the same reason, be staggered. As a concrete example, when faced with the criticism that quantitative easing (QE) was a plot for central banks to finance governments cheaply by buying their bonds, and that independence had willingly but surreptitiously been surrendered, I

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identified if they come in sizable discrete lumps or with sustained costs to particular groups, as central bankers have been discovering since they embarked on quantitative easing (chapter 24). But things are not so straightforward where the distributional effects of a series of regulatory measures are modest individually but material cumulatively. This

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do believe that the public clamor in some countries around the German legal challenge had the effect of delaying the ECB’s decision to launch quantitative easing for the quite different, and unequivocally core, purpose of stimulating euro areawide aggregate spending and output in order to keep inflation in line with its

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to the economy. 7 That story is broadly captured in Diamond and Dybvig, “Bank Runs.” 8 This is how Mervyn King persuaded the UK that quantitative easing was not inherently inflationary: we were addressing a problem of “not enough money” threatening deflation. By contrast, the Fed tends not to highlight the monetary

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part of quantitative easing (or of monetary policy more generally), which left it exposed to accusations that it risked runaway inflation by creating too much money. 9 Under the

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the future path of the policy rate (what has become known as forward guidance).7 All other interventions to stimulate aggregate demand—for example, the “quantitative easing” and “credit easing” of the postcrisis years—would fall to the “fiscal arm” of government. That—not a judgment on the merits of the minimal

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their own during disasters and emergencies. APPLYING THE BALANCE-SHEET PRINCIPLES TO OPERATIONS IN DEFAULT-FREE GOVERNMENT INSTRUMENTS This section, on default-free operations, covers quantitative easing (QE), “helicopter money,” and operationalizing negative interest rates.12 The running theme is around where cooperation or coordination with the fiscal authority might be needed

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. Quantitative Easing and Government Debt Management The most basic operation is quantitative easing, which involves the central bank buying long-term government bonds with the dual purpose of injecting money into the economy

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becomes a live issue: the monetary policy rate is at or very close to the effective lower bound and is expected to stay there; vanilla quantitative easing and guidance on the prospective path of the policy rate will not suffice or will entail even more unacceptable risks; repo operations in private sector

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ways. There has been increasing recognition that risk premia and risk appetite are affected by monetary policy—not only by those monetary operations, such as quantitative easing, that are designed to influence risk premia but also by regular interest-rate decisions. This might be so if very low interest rates, as prevailed

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and, 37; public goods and, 58–59, 321; public interest and, 32–34, 39; public policy regime design and, 72–76; purposes of, 51–53; quantitative easing and, 106, 380, 386, 442n8, 486, 492–93, 498, 533; regulatory capture and, 66–67; regulatory state and, 28, 36, 39n37, 43, 48, 50–62

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and, 6, 17, 19, 392; Principles for Delegation and, 129–33, 491–92; private sector instruments and, 495–501; pure credit policy and, 498–99; quantitative easing and, 486, 492–93, 498; restraining exuberance and, 499–501; secured lending and, 496; stability and, 438, 441–42, 457, 460, 466, 469, 481 Banca

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and, 370, 373; power and, 1, 6–7, 10, 19, 386–87, 393–94, 398, 473, 475; Principles for Delegation and, 244, 265, 328, 332; quantitative easing and, 386–87; stress testing and, 478; as Siysyphus, 563 European Court of Justice (ECJ), 43, 137, 328–29, 356, 359, 386 European Exchange Rate

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, 388, 402, 460, 480, 482–503, 525, 537–38; Principles for Delegation and, 128–33; public debate and, 490; pure credit policy and, 498–99; quantitative easing and, 486, 492–93, 498; restraining exuberance and, 499–501; social costs and, 487 Fischer, Stanley, 112n3, 415n3, 417, 428n10, 449n21 Fisher, Irving, 428n8, 438

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, 371; power and, 413; Principles for Delegation and, 137, 145, 239, 262n33 publicly observable information, 108 Purpose-Powers precept, 110–18, 128, 241, 491, 570 quantitative easing, 106, 380, 386, 442n8, 486, 492–93, 498, 533 quasi-legislative rule making, 37, 44, 185, 308 radical democrats, 237 Rajan, Raghuram, 535, 566 rational

The Long Good Buy: Analysing Cycles in Markets

by Peter Oppenheimer  · 3 May 2020  · 333pp  · 76,990 words

rates were cut again. The power of central banks has been wielded many times since, not least in the current cycle, with the introduction of quantitative easing (QE) and, at times, similarly powerful guidance to instil confidence. This was, perhaps, most famously demonstrated in 2012 in the midst of the European sovereign

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in 2015/2016. Second, this cycle has been different from others in that it has been marked by unconventional policy easing (and the start of quantitative easing), together with historically low inflation and bond yields. Relatively weak profit growth has been another particular feature of this cycle, but alongside rising valuations. It

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, post the financial crisis, has been particularly unusual in the extent of monetary easing. The collapse in policy rates to zero and the introduction of quantitative easing, largely to deflect the deflationary consequences of the collapse in economic activity and asset prices in the wake of the crisis, has been a particular

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to spend $1 trillion in newly created dollars on the back of government and mortgage bonds to push interest rates lower through its programme of ‘quantitative’ easing, which was critical in triggering the rebound in the stock markets. A second and important contributor to this bull market has been the assent of

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and spread into a broader credit crunch, ending with Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy and the start of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and quantitative easing (QE).4 Wave two in Europe began with the exposure of banks to leveraged losses in the US and spread to a sovereign crisis given

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2016, equity markets and fixed income (bond and credit) markets have moved higher together, although with significant differences in relative returns. Aggressive monetary easing and quantitative easing have had a strong effect in pushing up valuations in financial markets. Various academic papers have examined the impact of QE on bond prices, particularly

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measures that included the TARP bailout programme, authorising $700 billion to bail out banks, AIG, and auto companies. It also helped credit markets and homeowners. Quantitative easing (QE) – or large-scale asset purchases – refers to monetary policy that entails a central bank creating money that is used to buy predetermined amounts of

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markets, under certain conditions, of bonds issued by euro area member states. 6 Balatti, M., Brooks, C., Clements, M. P., and Kappou, K. (2016). Did quantitative easing only inflate stock prices? Macroeconomic evidence from the US and UK. SSRN [online]. Available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2838128

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returns, but it can also result in more demand for bonds as the yields fall, resulting in yet lower bond yields. Notes 1 See How quantitative easing affects bond yields: Evidence from Switzerland. Christensen, J., and Krogstrup, S. (2019). Royal Economic Society [online]. Available at https://www.res.org.uk/resources-page

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/how-quantitative-easing-affects-bond-yields-evidence-from-switzerland.html 2 See Gilchrist, S., and Zakrajsek, E. (2013). The impact of the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset

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the financial crisis.18 Of course, technology is not the only reason for this. The impact of austerity has contributed, as has the influence of quantitative easing. This process has helped to reduce the level of interest rates and boost corporate profits (as well as the trend for corporate buybacks in the

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to revert to the typical levels seen in the cycles prior to the financial crisis. As a result of these changes, and the onset of quantitative easing, valuations in financial assets have generally increased, suggesting lower future returns. Bond yields at the zero bound do not necessarily benefit equities. In general, the

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Royal Society [online]. Available at https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2009.0169 Balatti, M., Brooks, C., Clements, M. P., and Kappou, K. (2016). Did quantitative easing only inflate stock prices? Macroeconomic evidence from the US and UK. SSRN [online]. Available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2838128

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paradox v2.0: The price of free goods. New York, NY: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Hayes, A. (2019, April 25). Dotcom bubble. Investopedia. How quantitative easing affects bond yields: Evidence from Switzerland. (2019). Royal Economic Society [online]. Available at https://www.res.org.uk/resources-page/how

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-quantitative-easing-affects-bond-yields-evidence-from-switzerland.html How to tame the tech titans. (2018). The Economist. Hutchinson, J., and Persyn, D. (2012). Globalisation, concentration and

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/news/dnb-publications/dnb-working-papers-series/dnb-working-papers/working-papers-2010/dnb232375.jsp Vissing-Jorgensen, A., and Krishnamurthy, A. (2011). The effects of quantitative easing on interest rates: Channels and implications for policy. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, pp. 215–265. Wright, I., Mueller-Glissmann, C., Oppenheimer, P., and Rizzi

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-2009 financial crisis 169–174 emerging markets 171–173 forecasting 19–21 growth vs. value company effects 94–96 impact 169–170 phases 171–174 quantitative easing 173–174, 178–179 sovereign debt 170, 171–173 structural bear market 110, 118–119 A accounting, bubbles 163–165 adjustment speed 74, 89–90

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–217 and equity valuations 72–76, 206–208 and growth companies 92–94 historical 43, 202 and implied growth 210–215 and inflation 65, 70 quantitative easing 173–174, 202–205 and risk asset demand 217–220 S&P 500 correlation 72–73 speed of adjustment 74, 89–90 ultra-low 201

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–133 duration 136–138, 139–141 equity performance 135–136 Great Moderation 133–134, 187–189 non-trending 138–141 post-war boom 129–131 quantitative easing 134 secular 127–134 United States 136 C canal mania 152 CAPE see cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio capital investment, Juglar cycle 3 CDO

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from 196–200 lessons from 244–245 market and economy incongruence 174–178 monetary policy 178–179, 201–205 opportunities 230–231 profitability 185–186 quantitative easing 202–205 returns 174–179 risk asset demand 217–220 structural changes 76–79, 93–96, 169–200 technology 189–190, 221–241 term premium

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inflation 65–66, 70 mini/high-frequency cycles 58–61 narrowing and structural bear markets 114–115 overextension 36–37 phases of investment 50–58 quantitative easing 173–174, 178–179 S&P 500 historical performance 42 valuations and future returns 43–45 vs. bonds 43–45, 68–76, 78–79 equity

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ESM see European stability mechanism Europe dividends 39–40 exchange rate mechanism 16–17, 111 Maastricht Treaty 17 market narrowing in 1990s 115 privatisation 132 quantitative easing 17, 204–205 sovereign debt crisis 170, 171–173 European Central Bank (ECB) 17, 171, 173 European Recovery Plan 129–131 European stability mechanism (ESM

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157–159, 178–179, 201–205, 239 austerity 239 European Central Bank 17, 171, 173 Federal Reserve 16, 102, 131, 134, 150–151, 157, 203 quantitative easing 17, 70–71, 119, 133–134, 173–174, 178–179, 202–205 Montreal Protocol 13 mortgage-backed securities (MBS) 159 MSCI indices 91 N narrow

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negative bond yields 201–220 demographics 215–217 and equity valuations 206–208 and growth 208–210 implied growth 210–215 monetary policy 201–205 quantitative easing 202–205 risk asset demand 217–220 neuroeconomics 24–25 ‘new eras’ 113–114, 150–157 ‘Nifty Fifty’ 114, 233 non-trending bull markets 138

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21–25 policy setting 25–26 public ownership 132 purchasing managers' index (PMI) 59–61, 86–87, 89–90 Q QE see quantitative easing Qualcom 149–150 quality companies 193 quantitative easing (QE) asset returns 70–71, 119, 178–179 bond yields 173–174, 202–205 start of 17, 133–134, 171 United Kingdom

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-low bond yields 201–220 demographics 215–217 and equity valuations 206–208 and growth 208–210 implied growth 210–215 monetary policy 201–205 quantitative easing 202–205 risk asset demand 217–220 UNCTAD see United Nations Conference on Trade and Development unemployment 121–124, 183–185 unexpected shocks 108 United

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Kingdom (UK) Black Wednesday 16–17 bond yields, historical 202 canal mania 152 deregulation 132 exchange rate mechanism 16–17, 111 privatisation 132 quantitative easing 204–205 railway bubble 148, 152–153, 157, 163 South Sea Company 147, 151, 153 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) 129 United

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–239 market narrowing 114 NASDAQ 149–150, 161 ‘Nifty Fifty’ 114, 130–131, 233, 235 post-war boom 129–131 profit share of GDP 186 quantitative easing 133–134, 171, 202–204 radio manufacturing 154, 225 railway bubble 153–154, 160 stock market boom, 1920s 148, 154, 157, 160 vs. Microsoft 236

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Zaitech 164 zero bond yields 201–220 demographics 215–217 equity valuations 206–208 growth 208–210 implied growth 210–215 monetary policy 201–205 quantitative easing 202–205 risk asset demand 217–220 WILEY END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT Go to www.wiley.com/go/eula to access Wiley’s ebook EULA

The Crisis of Crowding: Quant Copycats, Ugly Models, and the New Crash Normal

by Ludwig B. Chincarini  · 29 Jul 2012  · 701pp  · 199,010 words

New Liquidity Requirements Other Changes Some Thoughts on Basel III Appendix N: The Policy Reaction III: The Federal Reserve The Fed’s Business Unconventional Policies Quantitative Easing The Federal Hedge Fund Appendix O: The Policy Reaction IV: Fiscal Stimulus and Housing Capital Injections into the Banking System Supporting the Housing Market Stimulating

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spreadsheet program, Lotus 1-2-3 (the precursor to Excel). Business partner of Eric Rosenfeld. John Maynard Keynes: British economist who first mentioned ideas of quantitative easing. Alex Kirk: Managing Director and global head of high-yield and leveraged loans at Lehman Brothers during financial crisis. William Krasker: Principal at LTCM. Modeler

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with a 0.24% move. Thus, it takes a lot of Fed firing power to get relevant interest rates down. TABLE N.1 Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates in the United States Thus, there are some limitations to the Fed’s normal way of influencing the economy. First, if longer

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to lend up to $200 billion on a nonrecourse basis to holders of AAA-rated asset-backed securities. Quantitative Easing On November 25, 2008, the Fed announced perhaps its most unusual program of quantitative easing.3 Rather than simply manipulate the short-term Fed Funds rate, the Federal Reserve announced that it would purchase

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securities, bringing the total to $1.25 trillion. The Fed also bought $200 billion in agency debt. They also announced the second phase of their quantitative easing technique. Instead of just buying mortgage securities, they agreed to begin buying up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six

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maturity to a 10-year maturity. This program of buying long-dated securities to try and force their yields down has become known as QE1 (quantitative easing 1). Although it was innovative, it was not only not a new idea, but had already been put into practice by the Japanese between 2001

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bonds. Some have argued that this policy was successful in stimulating Japan’s output for a period of two and a half years.4 The quantitative easing in the United States continued further when on November 3, 2010, the Fed announced that it would purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term

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end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month.5 This was called QE2 (quantitative easing 2). There have been both critics and supporters of the quantitative easing programs. Ultimately, it is hard to determine whether or not these policies helped stabilize the financial markets since there were

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bonds, the yields on 10-year Treasury bonds actually rose the following few months and were higher than at the announcement date. FIGURE N.3 Quantitative Easing Effects on Interest Rates and the Financial Stress Index Source: FRED. On November 3, 2010, the Fed formally announced the QE2 buyback plan of U

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%. This was due to the special programs that were mentioned earlier. FIGURE N.4 shows three bars growing dramatically. These were all due to the quantitative easing programs. The Fed has bought a lot of agency bonds, that is, bonds that were sold by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The Fed has

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rate that banks use to lend reserves to each other held at the Fed. 3. For a full set of dates of announcements associated with quantitative easing, see Gagnon et al. (2010) and Krishnamurthy and Vissing-Jorgensen (2010) or http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. 4. See Schenkelberg and Watzka (2011

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to make profits for the bank. put option The right, not obligation, to sell a security at a specified price in a specified time interval. quantitative easing A central bank program whereby the Fed attempts to influence longer-term interest rates by direct purchases of government bonds or mortgage-backed securities or

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Electronic Market.” http://ssrn.com/abstract=1686004, January 12, 2011. Klyuev, Vladimir, Phil de Imus, and Krishna Srinivasan. “Unconventional Choices for Unconventional Times: Credit and Quantitative Easing in Advanced Economies.” IMF Staff Position Note, November 4, 2009. Kopecki, Dawn. “Freddie Paid Big Bonuses in ’04.” Wall Street Journal, June 5, 2005. Kopecki

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. Krasker, William S. “The Rate of Return to Storing Wines.” Journal of Political Economy, December 1979. Krishnamurthy, Arvind and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen. “The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Long-Term Interest Rates.” Northwestern Working Paper, November 8, 2010. Kumar, Arun N. “American International Group: A View Through the Looking Glass as the

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. Tables on Strength of Subprime and New Channel for Product Loans.” Investment Dealers Digest, January 10, 2005. Schenkelberg, Heike and Watzka Sebastian. “Real Effects of Quantitative Easing at the Zero-Lower Bound: Structural VAR-based Evidence from Japan.” Working Paper, February 3, 2011. Schlesinger, Jacob M. “Long-Term Capital Bailout Spotlights a

Where Does Money Come From?: A Guide to the UK Monetary & Banking System

by Josh Ryan-Collins, Tony Greenham, Richard Werner and Andrew Jackson  · 14 Apr 2012

bank money? 4.6.1. Deposit insurance 4.7. Managing money: repos, open market operations, and quantitative easing (QE) 4.7.1. Repos and open market operations 4.7.2. Standing facilities 4.7.3. Quantitative Easing 4.7.4. Discount Window Facility 4.8. Managing money: solvency and capital 4.8.1. Bank

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at the central bank) and commercial bank lending/deposits can break down entirely. Flooding banks with additional liquidity, as central banks have done recently via Quantitative Easing (QE), has not led to much commensurate increase in bank lending or broad money. All this is set out in nice detail in this book

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. Where did all that money go? – in reference to the ‘credit crunch’. How can the Bank of England create £375 billion of new money through ‘quantitative easing’? And why has the injection of such a significant sum of money not helped the economy recover more quickly? Surely there are cheaper and more

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the money supply through monetary policy. This chapter includes a section on the recent adoption, by the Bank of England and other central banks, of ‘Quantitative Easing’ as an additional policy tool. We also examine the concepts of bank ‘solvency’ and ‘capital’ and examine how a commercial bank’s balance sheet is

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creation of money fuelled much of the unsustainable credit boom running up to 2007 (Figure 4). Conversely, during the crisis, the Bank of England’s ‘Quantitative Easing’ (QE) scheme (see section 4.7.3) pumped hundreds of billions of new base money into the system (Figure 6), yet this had no noticeable

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as effectively as when the Bank of England rolls the printing presses to produce more banknotes. 4.7. Managing money: repos, open market operations, and quantitative easing (QE) Towards the end of Chapter 3, we discussed how, during the 1970s, a fundamental shift occurred in the way the Bank of England conducted

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the lending are designed to ensure that the extra reserves are not used to enable more lending. The Asset Purchase Facility (also referred to as Quantitative Easing, see Section 4.7.3) allows the central bank to purchase gilts and other types of assets outright, for which it issues newly created central

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for reserves, the Bank of England also exchanges other assets for gilts through its Discount Window Facility (See Section 4.7.4). 4.7.3. Quantitative Easing Central banks tell us that monetary policy is conducted mainly through interest rates. The official description is along the following lines: when the Bank of

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early 1980s, but abandoned due to its ineffectiveness. This policy was also ineffective, but thanks to using a label originally defined as expanding credit creation – ‘quantitative easing’ – it caught the imagination of investors and commentators. Thus today often monetarist reserve or base money expansion is referred to as

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‘quantitative easing’, or QE.* Unlike the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve implemented a policy more directly aimed at expanding bank credit creation, as explained by Chairman

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in 2012 as bank credit growth recovered. In contrast, the Bank of England adopted the Bank of Japan’s monetarist reserve expansion under the label ‘quantitative easing’, and did not target bank credit creation directly, although it has made substantial efforts to ensure that bond purchases take place (to a significant extent

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from http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/340476/ 26 Werner, R.A., (1995). op. cit. 27 Voutsinas K. and Werner, R. A. (2010). The Effectiveness of ‘Quantitative Easing’ and the Accountability of the Central Bank in Japan. Paper presented at The 8th Infiniti Conference on International Finance, Trinity College, Dublin, 14-15 June

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the Cyprus University of Technology, Limassol, 1-2 Sept. 2010 28 Lyonnet, V. and Werner, R. A., (2012) Lessons from the Bank of England on ‘quantitative easing’ and other ‘unconventional’ monetary policies. International Review of Financial Analysis, Volume 25, December 2012, Pages 94-105 29 Ibid. 30 Ben Bernanke (2009). Speech given

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decision of the Bank to embark on the purchase of financial assets funded through the creation of new central bank reserves, more popularly known as Quantitative Easing (explained in Section 4.7.3).10, 11 The corridor system has now been replaced by a ‘floor’ system with the level of reserves initially

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market framework. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin Q4: 292-301, p. 293 10 Voutsinas, K., Werner, R.A., (2011a). New Evidence on the Effectiveness of Quantitative Easing in Japan. Centre for Banking, Finance and Sustainable Development Discussion Paper. Southampton: University of Southampton, School of Management 11 Lyonnet, V. Werner, R. A., (2012

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). Lessons from the Bank of England on ‘quantitative easing’ and other ‘unconventional’ monetary policies. International Review of Financial Analysis, Volume 25, December 2012, pp. 94-105 12 Financial Services Authority, (2009, October.) PS09/16

…

whether and when to do this. Purchasing bonds on the secondary market is exactly what the Bank of England has been doing since it commenced ‘quantitative easing’ in 2009. It has purchased £375bn worth of existing government bonds mostly from institutional investors such as pension funds. New deposits have been created not

…

. The crisis has also revealed the enormous advantage of having a sovereign currency and central bank in times of crisis. The UK, through its £375bn quantitative easing (QE) programme (section 4.7.3), can be seen to have, at least temporarily, monetised the Government debt ‘by the backdoor’. The Bank of England

…

Controls. IMF Staff Position Note, 19 February 2010, SPN/10/04 31 Lyonnet, V. Werner, R. A., (2012). Lessons from the Bank of England on ‘quantitative easing’ and other ‘unconventional’ monetary policies. International Review of Financial Analysis, Volume 25, December 2012, pp. 94-105 32 Voutsinas, K. and Werner, R.A., (2010

…

). New Evidence on the Effectiveness of ‘Quantitative Easing’ and the Accountability of the Central Bank in Japan, Centre for Banking, Finance and Sustainable Development, Discussion Paper, School of Management. University of Southampton, Southampton

…

33 Ryan-Collins, J., (2010). Quantitative easing is stimulating commodity trading, not the real economy. London: nef 34 Greenham, T., (2012). Quantitative easing: a wasted opportunity. London: nef 35 Davies, G., (2002). op. cit., p. 27, p. 663 7 CONCLUSIONS Banks

…

/2012/sep/24/vincecable-small-business-bank1 [accessed 1st October 2012] 25 See example proposals for ‘Green Quantitative Easing’, retrievable from – http://www.greennewdealgroup.org/?p=175 and http://www.neweconomics.org/blog/2012/07/05/quantitative-easing-a-wasted-opportunity 26 Peston, R., (n. d.). How Credit Easing Works, BBC News, http://www

…

followed the decision of the MPC to embark upon the purchase of financial assets funded through the creation of central bank money, popularly known as quantitative easing (QE) (see section 4.7.3). At the time of writing, the bank has created £375 billion worth of central bank reserves, and used them

…

., (2008). Reducing foreign exchange settlement risk. BIS Quarterly Review, p. 56 Lyonnet, V., and Werner, R. A., (2012). Lessons from the Bank of England on ‘quantitative easing’ and other ‘unconventional’ monetary policies. International Review of Financial Analysis, Volume 25, December 2012, pp. 94-105 MacGorain, S., (2005). Stabilising short-term interest rates

…

Distinguished Lecture in Economics and Public Policy, 18 February 2011. Clare College: Cambridge Voutsinas, K., Werner, R.A., (2011a). New Evidence on the Effectiveness of Quantitative Easing in Japan. Centre for Banking, Finance and Sustainable Development Discussion Paper. Southampton: University of Southampton, School of Management Walker D., (ed.) Money and Markets, Cambridge

…

Sustainable Development at the University of Southampton and author of two best-selling books on banking and economics. He is credited with popularising the term ‘quantitative easing’ in 1994 whilst Chief Economist at Jardine Fleming Securities (Asia), following a spell as visiting research fellow at the Japanese Central Bank. Andrew Jackson contributed

…

| R | S T | U | V | W allocation, credit 105, 106, 109, 111, 141 anti-Bullionist school 43 Article 101 EC 118 Asset Purchase Facility see Quantitative Easing Babylon 34 bank accounts balances 15, 16 customers’ ownership of money in 11-12 government 153 importance of 138 Bank Charter Act 1833 43 Bank

…

prosperity and financial stability 7-8 link to central reserves 7 multiplier model 18-21 securitisation 100-1 shadow banking 101-2 see also credit; Quantitative Easing money supply Bank of England measures of 60-1 control of 20, 48 definition 15 effects on 71 expansion by governments 145 money creation creation

…

credit creation 24, 111, 142 see also GDP transactions promissory notes 37, 38 Promissory Notes Act 1704 40, 42 PVP systems 165-6, 167, 168 Quantitative Easing (QE) Bank of England 81 bond purchases 81 definition 80-1 effect on economy 82-3 financial assets, purchase of 152 lending, impact on 22

…

expand credit creation. The Bank of Japan is usually thought of as commencing QE on March 19th 2001, but it did not use the expression ‘quantitative easing’ in its official descriptions of its policy in March 2001, and its scheme differed in key respects to Werner’s scheme of

…

quantitative easing. In fact, Werner had predicted that mere reserve expansion would not work after banking crises – neither would interest rate reductions or fiscal policy that is

After the Music Stopped: The Financial Crisis, the Response, and the Work Ahead

by Alan S. Blinder  · 24 Jan 2013  · 566pp  · 155,428 words

people’s money OTC: over the counter OTS: Office of Thrift Supervision PDCF: Primary Dealer Credit Facility PIIGS: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain QE: quantitative easing Repo: repurchase agreement S&L: savings and loan association S&P: Standard and Poor’s SEC: Securities and Exchange Commission Section 13(3): of Federal

…

that same day, the Fed started buying debt obligations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—marking the beginning of what would eventually be called QE1 (quantitative easing one). The central bank was clearly entering the asset-buying business on a large scale, but not with taxpayer money—or at least not directly

…

by selling or buying Treasury securities (which are riskless) in the open market. Anything else the central bank does, including any of a variety of quantitative easing policies, can be considered unconventional monetary policy. And the Federal Reserve has done plenty that’s unconventional since 2008. When would a central bank resort

…

did lose control of its balance sheet somewhat when it instituted “QE3” in September 2012. This brings us to . . . VARIETIES OF QUANTITATIVE EASING The Fed’s favorite unconventional weapon has been quantitative easing (QE), a term that encompasses a variety of ways to use the central bank’s balance sheet to improve financial conditions

…

weapon multiple times and in several different ways, we need to spend a little time on it. Since quantitative easing can take many forms, table 9.1 offers a simple two-by-two taxonomy. Quantitative easing operations might alter either the composition of the central bank’s balance sheet (the left-hand column) or

…

Federal Reserve has tried every one of the four alternatives since the crisis began in the fall of 2008. TABLE 9.1 Four Varieties of Quantitative Easing Composition Size Treasuries Pre-QE; Operation Twist QE2; part of QE1 Private-sector securities QE0 Most of QE1; QE3 The first notable changes in the

…

liquidity provider of last resort. It was not yet trying to move interest rates. No one except me has called that operation a case of quantitative easing, so I denote it as “Pre-QE” in table 9.1. But it really was an early form of QE because it altered the composition

…

-term securities, that is, to reduce term premiums.* The QE0 in the lower left cell of table 9.1 refers to several early episodes of quantitative easing—so early, in fact, that no one called them QE at the time. Most prominently, we saw that the Fed began buying commercial paper (CP

…

Mae and Freddie Mac bonds and MBS between late November 2008 and March 2010, was a much bigger deal, quantitatively. That’s when the term “quantitative easing,” a Japanese coinage, started to be used in the United States. But what we now call QE1 also included purchases of $300 billion worth of

…

, to reduce the spreads of MBS over Treasuries. And it worked. QE3 in late 2012 was essentially a repeat of the MBS part of QE1. QUANTITATIVE EASING A central bank normally eases monetary policy by reducing overnight interest rates—in the United States, that’s the federal funds rate. But what happens

…

else? Starting with the Bank of Japan in the 1990s, a number of central banks, prominently including the Fed, have resorted to some form of quantitative easing. The name derives from the idea that a standard easing of monetary policy works on price—on the cost of borrowing money. When that price

…

) avenue is exhausted, the central bank can still boost the quantities of bank reserves, money, and credit directly—normally by buying assets. That’s what quantitative easing is all about. The idea is to push more and more reserves into banks, at essentially a zero price, in the hope that the surfeit

…

.5 shows that total bank lending sagged badly and is still below late-2008 levels. With bank lending moribund, it is hard to see how quantitative easing could be inflationary. FIGURE 9.4 Slow and Steady (the money supply, M2 definition, 2008–2012, in billions) FIGURE 9.5 Reluctant Lenders (total bank

…

not like it. That would come as news to the U.S. Congress, which gave the Fed no such instructions. A third argument invoked against quantitative easing is the risk that the central bank might incur losses on its portfolio. If the central bank holds only T-bills, its portfolio is virtually

…

rates at the time. In fact, once Bernanke & Co. had slashed the federal funds rate to virtually zero in December 2008, the Fed looked to quantitative easing as a substitute for doing the impossible: pushing the funds rate into negative territory. Nonetheless, Taylor opposed the Fed’s unconventional monetary policies, claiming that

…

has not even begun to exit from this aspect of its unconventional monetary policy: the huge balance sheet. On the contrary, yet another program of quantitative easing (QE3) was announced in September 2012. So the Fed is still entering rather than exiting. Mountain of Excess Reserves Balance sheets must balance. As the

…

retrospect, and maybe even in prospect, that was astonishingly premature. The worst of the financial crisis was just receding, the economy was still contracting, and quantitative easing—a central part of the Fed’s entrance strategy—had begun only in November 2008. Nonetheless, by July 2009, Chairman Ben Bernanke was already sketching

…

passivity would never again cause a depression. Alternatively, the FOMC could resort to a variety of second-and third-best unconventional monetary policies, such as quantitative easing and verbal commitments. Which, of course, is exactly what they did—and are still doing. Exit is nowhere in sight. The likely outlook for the

…

, “The Financial Market Effects of the Federal Reserve’s Large-Scale Asset Purchases,” International Journal of Central Banking; Krishnamurthy and Vissing-Jorgensen, “The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. July 2010 by Mark Zandi and me: Blinder and Zandi, “How the Great Recession Was Brought to

…

effects”: Warsh, “The New Malaise and How to End It,” Wall Street Journal. smaller than those from QE1: Krishnamurthy and Vissing-Jorgensen, “The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. in non-Treasury securities: Blinder, “The Fed Is Running Low on Ammo,” Wall Street Journal. never again

…

. Bank of England, June 17, 2009. www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2012/speech587.pdf. Krishnamurthy, Arvind, and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen. “The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 42/2 (Fall 2011): 215–87. Krugman, Paul R. “Cash for Trash

…

macroeconomic impacts of, 209 monetary policy, unconventional. See Unconventional monetary policy (UMP) money market fund guarantees, 145–47 new dollars/euros, production of, 93–94 quantitative easing (QE), 248–56 spreads, reducing, 237–43 stimulus package, 223–36 stress tests, 257–60 TARP (Troubled Assets Relief Program), 126, 159, 177–209 T

…

. See Unconventional monetary policy (UMP) Interest-rate spreads, 237–43 and bond-related risk, 41–42 and European crisis, 410 in normal economy, 239, 241 quantitative easing (QE) to reduce, 248–56 reducing, methods of, 242–43 widening and crisis, 237–40 Interest-rate swaps, 60 International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA

…

banking system, 60 Proctor & Gamble, 60–61 Proprietary trading recognizing, difficulty of, 273–75 Volcker Rule regulation, 272–73, 283, 295–96, 308, 311–12 Quantitative easing (QE), 248–56 effectiveness of, 250 QE1 Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac bond purchases, 206–7, 251 QE1 Treasury security purchases, 207, 251–55 QE2 Treasury

…

(TSLF), 98–99 Treasury bonds features of, 40 federal deficit and borrowing rates, 395–96 LIBOR spread and crisis, 91 mortgage-backed securities versus, 46 quantitative easing (QE) purchases, 207, 251–55, 382–84 as risk-free securities, 41, 241, 395–96 Trichet, Jean Claude, 421, 423, 424 Troubled asset purchases canceled

…

excess reserves, reducing rate on, 246–47, 386 goals of, 243 inflation target, increasing, 245 Operation Twist, 383–84 pegging interest rate, 248, 385–86 quantitative easing (QE), 248–56, 382–84 verbal commitments, 243–45, 385, 386 Unemployment during financial crisis (2008–2012), 11–13, 19–20, 218, 354–55 low

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