The Hidden Half: How the World Conceals Its Secrets
by Michael Blastland · 3 Apr 2019 · 290pp · 82,871 words
the temptation to grasp too hastily at mere hints of knowing. The idea of negative capability overlaps with another: the ability to refrain from ‘the rage to conclude’, to borrow another expression, this time from the writer Gustave Flaubert, who said: ‘The rage for wanting to conclude is one of the most deadly
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manias to befall humanity.’ In a research context, Edward Tufte, an American data visualization guru, says this rage to conclude leads, ‘to premature, simplistic, and false inferences about causality. Good statistical analysis seeks to calm down the rage to conclude. . .’36 We would all rather know than be ignorant. But we should have more fear about
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how this desire can lead to bad knowledge, and ultimately to harm. Developing negative capability, calming the rage to conclude, might help. At the very least, it would be an expression of respect for a prolific world of astonishing intricacy. 5. The principle isn’t
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leave our imaginations unfurnished or in doubt, is an urge we could usefully resist. Negative capability, as Keats called it, the ability to resist the rage to conclude, is perhaps another way of holding bad answers at bay. 4. Embrace uncertainty. A hidden half means a mass of inevitable ignorance and uncertainty. That
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psychology 58 Pullinger, John 278n14 Pullman, Philip 37 quantification, risk and risk-taking 162–5 racism 125–6 radical uncertainty 106, 107 Radio, Andrew 102 rage to conclude, the 139 randomized controlled trials, value of 280n6 randomness, pure 9 Ranieri, Claudio 200–1 rationality 68, 260n6, 260n8 reality 230, 245, 254n14 reciprocity 155
AIQ: How People and Machines Are Smarter Together
by Nick Polson and James Scott · 14 May 2018 · 301pp · 85,126 words
happens, it’s usually because people have made poor choices in tending the soil. There are three prime ways in which this can happen: 1. Rage to conclude. 2. Model rust. 3. Bias in, bias out. To illustrate these themes, we’ll ask for a little bit of help from a midcentury American
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’s hitting streak is the opening act in a parable about how the human side of this process can go wrong. Joe DiMaggio and the Rage to Conclude Act 1: The Streak To calculate a probability for Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak, we’ll begin with a metaphor. Suppose that a
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and Fruitless Mania” We see the Times article on contraceptive failure rates as an example of what data-analysis guru Edward Tufte once called the “rage-to-conclude bias.” He took the name from an aphorism of Flaubert’s: “The rage for wanting to conclude is one of the most disastrous and fruitless
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manias to befall humanity.”15 Tufte was referring to the human tendency to see patterns in randomness, but the rage-to-conclude phenomenon certainly doesn’t stop there. Sometimes a data set is inherently unable to answer a question. When that happens, you really should go find
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company, large and small, will rely on this kind of data to do business. In this new age, it’s essential that we calm the rage to conclude, by remembering that every unverified assumption is a placeholder—an approximation to be used, for better or worse, only until more data is available. Model
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criminal justice system and democratization of diffusion and dissemination of enabling technological trends image classification image recognition model rust models versus reality Moravec paradox policy rage to conclude bias robot cars salaries SLAM problem (simultaneous localization and mapping) speech recognition talent and workforce twenty questions game and See also anomaly detection; Bayes’s
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language processing and neural networks and overfitting problem training the model trial and error strategy Price, Richard principle of least squares privacy ProPublica Quetelet, Adolphe rage to conclude bias ransomware Reagan, Ronald recommender systems health care and large-scale legacy of Netflix See also suggestion engines Rees, Mina Reinhart, Alex robot cars Bayes