Empire of the Fund: The Way We Save Now
by William A. Birdthistle · 15 May 2016 · 375pp · 106,189 words
can really be sure about the wine … but investments are not just for social poseurs; we quite reasonably expect more expensive investments to generate greater risk-adjusted returns. The inverse relationship is the opposite of what you would anticipate from an efficient market. We expect expensive cars to be faster, expensive computers to
Trading and Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners
by Larry Harris · 2 Jan 2003 · 1,164pp · 309,327 words
and —15 percent. For most purposes, market-adjusted returns demonstrate how well the portfolio has performed better than raw returns do. 22.2.2.2 Risk-adjusted Returns Analysts sometimes further adjust raw returns to account for the exposure of portfolios to known risks. For example, consider the exposure of a portfolio to
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computed frequently because the portfolio beta changes whenever the manager exchanges assets that have different betas. To accurately estimate risk-adjusted returns, analysts must multiply market returns by concurrent portfolio betas. Analysts who compute risk-adjusted returns often also compute market-timing returns. The market-timing return is the difference between the portfolio beta times the
Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least
by Antti Ilmanen · 24 Feb 2022
in Chapters 4 and 6. The bars show annual average compound returns over cash since 1926 (left y-axis), while the line shows Sharpe ratios (risk-adjusted returns, henceforth “SRs”, right y-axis). Chapters 5 and 7 will also cover illiquidity premia and manager-specific alpha, but we do not have nearly century
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management, and effective implementation. We call these less glamorous activities collectively as sources of “alpha beyond expected returns” where alpha is loosely defined as improved risk-adjusted returns. In today's low-rate environment, it is even more important that investors do not let any source of alpha go to waste. If investing
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.6% versus 2.3%); the edge remained unchanged between 2010 and 2020 (6.5% versus 4.2%).38 Front-end opportunity: I emphasized the high risk-adjusted returns of conservative credit strategies at short maturities, which would require leverage to really matter. This pattern is consistent with common leverage aversion among investors. The
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credit portfolios (the ICE BofA US Fallen Angel Index and the All High Yield Index) over duration-matched Treasuries. The edge shows up also in risk-adjusted returns because fallen angels have only mildly higher volatility (11% versus 10%). See Ben Dor et al. (2021) for more detail. 39 See Brooks-Gould-Richardson
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the lack of mark-to-market pricing and artificially smooth returns, their risks are understated. The smoothed returns ensure that all private assets have attractive risk-adjusted returns. Yet, in most cases, also the long-run raw returns (note everything is in expressed in excess of cash) look striking. Does Housing Beat Equities
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of 16 countries, though not in the large US and UK and only ahead in 5 of 16 countries since 1950. But housing offered better risk-adjusted returns everywhere, thanks to lacking mark-to-market returns. Figure 5.1 picks one example. I use Jorda et al. data for US assets 1960–2015
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days when they were more consistently profitable. And it is harder to justify why other carry strategies, with more benign characteristics, have earned high historical risk-adjusted returns. What other explanations do we have for the long-run rewards for carry strategies? Overconfident expectations of market moves and capital losses may offset the
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Low-Risk/Quality Strategies Defensive, or low-risk, strategies take advantage of the empirical fact that, within most asset classes, “boring” assets have earned better risk-adjusted returns than their speculative peers.28 Within stock markets, there is evidence that defensive stocks have earned at least as high long-term (raw) returns as
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line (SML), where the slope is the full-sample market risk premium. There are different ways to take advantage of the low-risk stocks' higher risk-adjusted returns. One is to overweight low-risk stocks in a long-only portfolio, thereby earning the same equity premium as the cap-weighted portfolio but at
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relevant metrics. QMJ is constructed using no leverage, resulting in a net negative beta.30 Economic Rationale The evidence that lower-beta assets offer higher risk-adjusted returns contradicts the standard CAPM, which predicts that expected excess returns are proportional to betas. Nevertheless, low-risk investing is consistent with other economic theories, notably
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.0 for both US Treasuries and US Credits across maturities. Figure 8.4 later in the book will confirm that short-maturity bonds have higher risk-adjusted returns than long-maturity bonds both within Treasury and Credit markets. Taking advantage of this opportunity would require levering up the short-maturity bonds, something leverage
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This statement is true if the low-risk stocks and high-risk stocks (and the market) have the same average returns, which still implies better risk-adjusted returns for low-risk stocks. If these low-risk stocks even have superior raw returns – as has been the case, for example, with some quality factors
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past performance, neither approach seems to consistently outpace the other in raw returns, but the diversification applied by systematic managers may give an edge in risk-adjusted returns. Unless an investor has a strong prior belief in either approach, they may be excellent complements: We observe equally low correlations within both systematic and
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a variety of plausible risk measures. I can already reveal that the visual patterns are rather weak – which may imply opportunities for investors to improve risk-adjusted returns. The 20 factor premia I study in Figures 8.2–8.4 include: liquid asset class premia in equities (S&P500, non-US “EAFE,” emerging
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private assets, which may explain historically limited realized illiquidity premia (see Chapter 5 (5.1)). Leverage aversion and lottery preferences can give rise to higher risk-adjusted returns to less risky assets if investors pay for the embedded leverage and lottery characteristics in riskier stocks (see Chapter 6 (6.4)). Leverage constraints on
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. This can be achieved in many ways, such as skillful investing and aggressive diversification. Grinold's (1989) fundamental law of active management says that higher risk-adjusted returns can be achieved through some combination of skill and breadth. There are more questionable ways to achieve smooth returns. Avoiding mark-to-market pricing in
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and Kahn's (1999) great book Active Portfolio Management developed both concepts further. IR and SR are the most common measures of relative and absolute risk-adjusted returns in investment practice. For a manager whose benchmark is cash, IR is equivalent to SR. FLAM states that, as a good approximation, the IR is
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: FLAM was originally written for an active stock-picker, but it works as well for asset allocation and factor allocation even in terms of absolute risk-adjusted returns (SRs). When we assess diversification across market risk premia or long/short premia which have nearly uncorrelated returns, the breadth math of halving the volatility
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and doubling the risk-adjusted returns with four independent return sources is more realistic than it is for diversification within a stock portfolio whose constituents are highly correlated. Specifically, risk parity
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in investing. But did you know that well-executed diversification is indistinguishable from magic?2 Diversification's ability to reduce portfolio volatility and to improve risk-adjusted returns is perhaps best captured by the role of breadth in the fundamental law of active management (FLAM) in the previous chapter. Improving breadth seems an
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easier way to double risk-adjusted returns than improving skill. I cover below a few practical examples. Global equity diversification versus home bias. The FLAM has less bite in this case because
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chasing: The US focus is often more popular after a strong decade. Yet, both logic and empirics suggest that globally diversified portfolios should provide better risk-adjusted returns in the long run. Risk parity versus 60/40. Decent notional diversification can hide poor risk diversification.3 Famously, the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio
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least reliable, many portfolio construction approaches (e.g. equal-weighted portfolio, minimum variance portfolio, risk parity portfolio) avoid using them. Implicitly, these approaches assume that risk-adjusted returns are similar across assets (or that the estimates are highly uncertain). Full MVO would be superior to such approaches if expected return or
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beyond risk reduction and also enhance long-run returns. I have stressed that better risk diversification is an attractive way of improving a portfolio's risk-adjusted returns. Mitigating the worst tail events can enhance long-run compounding of wealth, especially if it enables investors to buy bargains after large market falls. And
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proactive volatility targeting of asset class or style exposures may improve risk-adjusted returns. I conclude this section with some words on volatility targeting (volatility-managed portfolios or constant-volatility strategies). Volatility targeting involves keeping larger nominal position sizes
Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals
by David Aronson · 1 Nov 2006
other words, if it is costly to make markets informationally efficient, investors would be motivated to do it only if they were compensated with excess risk-adjusted returns. Thus the contradiction—EMH requires that information seekers be compensated for their efforts and simultaneously denies that they will be. This paradox is argued persuasively
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that price movements can be predicted to a meaningful degree with publicly known (stale) information. In other words, strategies based on stale information can generate risk-adjusted returns that beat the market. If it were true that prices quickly incorporate all known information, as EMH asserts, this should not be possible. How Cross
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is the boldest testable version of EMH.44 It asserts that no information in the public domain, fundamental or technical, can be used to generate risk-adjusted returns in excess of the market index. The bottom line of numerous well-conducted cross-sectional time series studies is this: Price movements are predictable to
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some degree with 352 METHODOLOGICAL, PSYCHOLOGICAL, PHILOSOPHICAL, STATISTICAL FOUNDATIONS stale public information, and excess risk-adjusted returns are possible. Here, I summarize some of these key findings: • Small capitalization effect: A stock’s total market capitalization, defined as the number of shares
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a benchmark index, whose function is to estimate the returns that can be earned by investing in an asset class with no special skill. The risk-adjusted returns earned by the MLM index suggest that commodity futures markets contain systematic price movements that can be exploited with relatively simple TA methods. The MLM
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of 17.91 0.7 0.6 Sharpe Ratio 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Futures Stocks FIGURE 7.15 Risk-adjusted returns to trend-following futures versus stocks. Theories of Nonrandom Price Motion 385 percent. Again, we see evidence of systematic price movements that can be explained
Extreme Money: Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk
by Satyajit Das · 14 Oct 2011 · 741pp · 179,454 words
follow the familiar bell-shaped normal distribution. Risk models grossly underestimate tail risk, exposure to large price moves. Traders arb internal risk metrics to inflate risk-adjusted returns to increase bonuses. Real hedge fund risks—correlation, liquidity, complexity, and model risk—are not measured properly. If the portfolio of long and short positions
The New Science of Asset Allocation: Risk Management in a Multi-Asset World
by Thomas Schneeweis, Garry B. Crowder and Hossein Kazemi · 8 Mar 2010 · 317pp · 106,130 words
200 202 203 206 206 208 210 212 213 214 viii CONTENTS Historical Security and Index Performance Provides a Simple Means to Forecast Future Excess Risk-Adjusted Returns Recent Manager Fund Return Performance Provides the Best Forecast of Future Return Superior Managers or Superior Investment Ideas Do Not Exist Performance Analytics Provide a
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Returns EXHIBIT 3.4 Return Convexity factors or from the selection of assets with nonlinear payoffs relative to the market in order to deliver improved risk-adjusted returns. In its advantageous form, this dynamic exposure is hypothesized to take the form of increased factor exposure during periods when market factors deliver positive returns
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factors, either from dynamic allocation of exposure to market factors or from the selection of assets with nonlinear payoffs relative to market, may deliver improved risk-adjusted returns. NOTES 1. There is extensive literature on Sharpe Ratios and alternative relative risk comparison measures (e.g., the Jensen and the Treynor indices). See Bodie
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a portfolio which meets an investor’s investment goals through time comes from actively monitoring and managing the risk of the portfolio. The concept of risk-adjusted returns is not easy to explain because there is no consensus on how the “true” risk of a portfolio should be measured and because, as was
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. Bache Commodity Index (BCI): The primary objective of the BCI is to provide broad-based exposure to global commodity markets, with low turnover and strong risk-adjusted returns resulting from multiple return factors. The BCI employs a dynamic asset allocation strategy based on the price momentum of individual commodity markets. This approach to
How to Predict the Unpredictable
by William Poundstone · 267pp · 71,941 words
the time. It beat the market while it was in stocks and offered the safety of fixed-income investments the rest of the time. By risk-adjusted return, that’s not so bad. To top the S&P 500’s return, you need to be more selective about limit values. The historical record
Learn Algorithmic Trading
by Sebastien Donadio · 7 Nov 2019
very simple variant of a mean reversion strategy and then show how one would apply volatility adjustment to the strategy to optimize and stabilize its risk-adjusted returns. Mean reversion strategy using the absolute price oscillator trading signal Let's explain and implement a mean reversion strategy that relies on the Absolute Price
The Unusual Billionaires
by Saurabh Mukherjea · 16 Aug 2016
for each portfolio (defined as the maximum drop in cumulative returns from the highest peak to the lowest subsequent trough); and Finally, I calculate the risk-adjusted returns, i.e. returns in excess of the risk-free rate (assumed to be 8 per cent) divided by the maximum drawdown. The results can be
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. The large-cap version continued its outperformance in this iteration as well beating both the all-cap version and the Sensex on both absolute and risk-adjusted return measures (Exhibit 176). Exhibit 176: Twelfth iteration summary Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research. Note: *Portfolio kicks off on 30 June 2011. Excess returns have been
Just Keep Buying: Proven Ways to Save Money and Build Your Wealth
by Nick Maggiulli · 15 May 2022 · 287pp · 62,824 words
at Vanguard came to a similar conclusion after analyzing the optimal rebalancing frequency for a 50/50 global stock/bond portfolio. Their paper states, “The risk-adjusted returns are not meaningfully different whether a portfolio is rebalanced monthly, quarterly, or annually; however, the number of rebalancing events and resulting costs increase significantly.”⁹⁴ And
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