Stocks for the Long Run, 4th Edition: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long Term Investment Strategies
by Jeremy J. Siegel · 18 Dec 2007
intentionally left blank F o u r t h E d i t i o n STOCKS FOR THE LONG RUN The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies JEREMY J. SIEGEL Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance The Wharton School University
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Real Returns on Fixed-Income Assets 14 The Fall in Fixed-Income Returns 15 The Equity Premium 16 Worldwide Equity and Bond Returns: Global Stocks for the Long Run 18 Conclusion: Stocks for the Long Run 20 Appendix 1: Stocks from 1802 to 1870 21 Appendix 2: Arithmetic and Geometric Returns 22 v vi Chapter 2 Risk, Return, and Portfolio
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. You can only admire the scope, lucidity, and sheer delight with which Professor Siegel serves up the evidence to support his case for investing in stocks for the long run. But this book is far more than its title suggests. You will learn a lot of economic theory along the way, garnished with a fascinating
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material with fresh insights into important issues. Revisions throughout the book have added valuable factual material and powerful new arguments to make his case for stocks for the long run. Whether you are a beginner at investing or an old pro, you will learn a lot from reading this book. Jeremy Siegel is never shy
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to an end, and with a bang, not a whimper. Peter Bernstein P R E F A C E I wrote the first edition of Stocks for the Long Run with two goals in mind: to document the returns on the major classes of financial assets over the past two centuries and to offer strategies
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the asset of choice for investors seeking long-term growth. I am both honored and flattered by the tremendous reception that the core ideas of Stocks for the Long Run have received. Since the publication of the first edition 13 years ago, I have given hundreds of lectures on the markets and the economy both
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e-mails from readers. My responses have formed the basis of much of the new material that has been added to the fourth edition of Stocks for the Long Run. NEW MATERIAL IN THE FOURTH EDITION The fourth edition not only updates all the data from the third edition, but it also introduces completely new
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history of the firms in the S&P 500 Index, which celebrated its fiftieth anniversary in March 2007. A recurring theme in this edition of Stocks for the Long Run is that “growth does not imply return.” This principle can be applied to individual stocks, industries, and even countries. I show the superiority of high
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growth stocks in the long run, a phenomenon that has been well documented in the finance literature. In the preface to the 2002 edition of Stocks for the Long Run, I wrote, “Although I still believe that [capitalization-weighted] indexed investments should constitute the core of every investor’s long-term portfolio, xvii Copyright © 2008
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are given a new look. I determine whether there have been any systematic changes in the response to these factors since the first edition of Stocks for the Long Run was published in 1994. There are some surprising results: some of the calendar anomalies hold up very well while others disappear altogether. For example, Fed
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many “bears” PREFACE PREFACE xix have misinterpreted historical evidence on dividend growth and corporate profits. CONCLUDING REMARKS Since the publication of the first edition of Stocks for the Long Run, there have been some extraordinary events in the capital markets. The greatest bull market in the 200-year history of U.S. equities ended in
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than in previous downturns, and surveys showed that most retained their faith that stocks were still the best long-term investment. If earlier editions of Stocks for the Long Run played some small part in stock investors’ newfound tenacity, I take great satisfaction. Nevertheless, all who strive to be successful investors must exercise patience. In
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS It is never possible to list all the individuals and organizations that have praised Stocks for the Long Run and encouraged me to update and expand past editions. Many who provided me with data for the first three editions of Stocks for the Long Run willingly contributed their data again for this fourth edition, including the Vanguard Group, Morgan
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Stanley, Smithers & Co., and Randell Moore of Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Jeremy Schwartz, who was my principal researcher for the third edition of Stocks for the Long Run as well as for The Future for Investors, provided invaluable assistance for the fourth edition. More than a year ago he and I sketched the
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financial advisors from dozens of financial firms, such as Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley, who have provided me with invaluable feedback on earlier editions of Stocks for the Long Run in seminars and open forums. As senior investment strategy advisor to WisdomTree Investments, I have been better able to articulate the value-based strategies discussed
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job of editing the final drafts of the book. I am hopeful that my efforts will bring us even more time together in the future. STOCKS FOR THE LONG RUN This page intentionally left blank 1 PA R T THE VERDICT OF HISTORY Copyright © 2008, 2002, 1998, 1994 by Jeremy J. Siegel. Click here for
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premium will certainly shrink. Chapter 8 will further discuss the equity premium and its implications for future returns. WORLDWIDE EQUITY AND BOND RETURNS: GLOBAL STOCKS FOR THE LONG RUN When I published Stocks for the Long Run in 1994, some economists questioned whether my conclusions, drawn from data from the United States, might overstate equity returns measured on a worldwide
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outperformed fixed-income assets in every country examined and often by an overwhelming margin. International studies have reinforced, not diminished, the case for equities. CONCLUSION: STOCKS FOR THE LONG RUN Over the past 200 years the compound annual real return on a diversified portfolio of common stock is nearly 7 percent in the United States
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in sustaining bull markets, noting Edgar Smith’s and Irving Fisher’s work in the 1920s, the Fisher-Lorie studies in the 1960s, and my Stocks for the Long Run, published in 1994. Shulman’s own long-term studies, based on dividend growth, reinforced his long-term bearish views on stocks.27 WARNINGS OF OVERSPECULATION
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its true valuation was nearly three times higher at 36,000. They incorrectly asserted that the theoretical underpinning for their analysis came from my book Stocks for the Long Run! Since I showed that nominal (nonindexed) bonds were as risky as stocks over long horizons, they improperly claimed that stock prices should rise sufficiently CHAPTER
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the banks, trade credit, or by selling bonds) or 2 This is an update of the chart that was presented in the second edition of Stocks for the Long Run (1998) as Figure 9-2 but omitted from the third edition. 3 Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, and Michael Staunton confirm my findings in the Triumph
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there are predictable times during which stocks as a whole, and certain stocks in particular, outperform the market. The analysis in the first edition of Stocks for the Long Run, published in 1994, was based on long data series analyzed through the early 1990s. The calendar anomalies reported in that edition invited investors to try
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that much, if not all, of the anomaly is eliminated. That certainly would be the prediction of the efficient market hypothesis. In this edition of Stocks for the Long Run, I shall look at the evidence over the past 14 years to determine whether the anomaly survived or 305 Copyright © 2008, 2002, 1998, 1994 by
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and 2 keep investors focused on the big picture about risk and return. IMPLEMENTING THE PLAN AND THE ROLE OF AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR I wrote Stocks for the Long Run to spell out what returns could be expected on stocks and bonds and to analyze the major factors influencing those returns. Many investors will consider
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represent the best way to accumulate wealth in the long run, remains as true today as it was when I published the first edition of Stocks for the Long Run in 1994. This page intentionally left blank I N D E X Note: Page numbers followed by i refer to figures or tables; those followed
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) yields on, bond yields related to, 95–97 “Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation: Year-by-Year Historical Returns (1926-74)” (Ibbotson and Sinquefield), 84–85 Stocks for the Long Run (Siegel), 86, 88–89, 305, 363 Stop-loss orders, 275 Story stocks, 158 Strike price, of options, 265 Subrahmanyam, Avandihar, 326n Summers, Lawrence H., 224n
Stocks for the Long Run 5/E: the Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies
by Jeremy Siegel · 7 Jan 2014 · 517pp · 139,477 words
Total Real Returns Real Returns on Fixed-Income Assets The Continuing Decline in Fixed-Income Returns The Equity Premium Worldwide Equity and Bond Returns Conclusion: Stocks for the Long Run Appendix 1: Stocks from 1802 to 1870 Chapter 6 Risk, Return, and Portfolio Allocation Why Stocks Are Less Risky Than Bonds in the Long Run
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, which he founded and edited. I hoped there might be a slim chance he would consent to write the preface to the second edition of Stocks for the Long Run. His secretary set up a date at one of his favorite restaurants, Circus on the Upper East Side. He arrived with his wife Barbara and
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. You can only admire the scope, lucidity, and sheer delight with which Professor Siegel serves up the evidence to support his case for investing in stocks for the long run. But this book is far more than its title suggests. You will learn a lot of economic theory along the way, garnished with a fascinating
…
material with fresh insights into important issues. Revisions throughout the book have added valuable factual material and powerful new arguments to make his case for stocks for the long run. Whether you are a beginner at investing or an old pro, you will learn a lot from reading this book. Jeremy Siegel is never shy
…
, long- term gains” or our system will come to an end, and with a bang, not a whimper. —Peter Bernstein PREFACE The fourth edition of Stocks for the Long Run was written in 2007. During the last several years, as many of my colleagues my age had slowed the pace of their research, I was
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-term real return on a diversified portfolio of common stocks has remained virtually identical to the 6.7 percent reported in the first edition of Stocks for the Long Run, which examined returns through 1992. CONFRONTING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS Because of the severe impact of the crisis, I felt that what transpired over the last
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been found by researchers to be important determinants of individual stocks’ return. CONCLUDING REMARKS I am both honored and flattered by the tremendous reception that Stocks for the Long Run has received. Since the publication of the first edition nearly 20 years ago, I have given hundreds of lectures on the markets and the economy
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS It is never possible to list all the individuals and organizations that have praised Stocks for the Long Run and encouraged me to update and expand past editions. Many who provided me with data for the first four editions of Stocks for the Long Run willingly contributed their data again for this fifth edition. David Bianco, Chief U.S
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would not have been possible without the hard work of Shaun Smith, who also did the research and data analysis for the first edition of Stocks for the Long Run in the early 1990s. Jeremy Schwartz, who was my principal researcher for The Future for Investors, also provided invaluable assistance for this edition. A special
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Lynch, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Wells Fargo, and many others who have provided me with critical feedback in seminars and open forums on earlier editions of Stocks for the Long Run. As before, the support of my family was critical in my being able to write this edition. Now that my sons are grown and out
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a national obsession. To update Marx, it is the religion of the masses. —ROGER LOWENSTEIN, “A COMMON MARKET: THE PUBLIC’S ZEAL TO INVEST”2 Stocks for the Long Run by Siegel? Yeah, all it’s good for now is a doorstop. —INVESTOR CALLING INTO CNBC, MARCH, 20093 “EVERYBODY OUGHT TO BE RICH” In the
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in sustaining bull markets, noting Edgar Smith’s and Irving Fisher’s work in the 1920s, the Fisher-Lorie studies in the 1960s, and my Stocks for the Long Run, published in 1994.28 But these bears had little impact as stocks continued upward. Warnings of Overvaluation By 1996, price/earnings ratios on the S
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valuation was three times higher at 36,000. Much to my surprise, they asserted that the theoretical underpinning for their analysis came from my book Stocks for the Long Run! They claimed that since I showed that bonds were as risky as stocks over long horizons, then stock prices must rise threefold to reduce their
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most difficult stock returns to collect were those from 1802 through 1871 because few dividend data were available from that period. In prior editions of Stocks for the Long Run i used a stock price index based on the research of Professor William Schwert.1 But his research did not include dividends, so I estimated
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stocks is approximately 6.6 percent per year after inflation. Despite the addition of 20 years of stock market data since the first edition of Stocks for the Long Run, this return is just one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the 6.7 percent return that i reported in 1994.11 Some have
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their historical average, the forward-looking equity premium in 2013 could be 6 percent or more.15 WORLDWIDE EQUITY AND BOND RETURNS When I published Stocks for the Long Run in 1994, some economists questioned whether my conclusions, drawn from data from the United States, might overstate historical equity returns measured on a worldwide basis
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market, and they have decidedly triumphed over more cautious investors over the last century. International studies have reinforced, not diminished, the case for equities. CONCLUSION: STOCKS FOR THE LONG RUN Over the past 210 years, the compound annual real return on a diversified portfolio of common stock has been between 6 and 7 percent in
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percent of the time. TABLE 6-1 Percentage of Time Stocks Outperform Bonds and Bills over Various Holding Periods In the first four editions of Stocks for the Long Run, I noted that the last 30-year period when the return on long-term bonds beat stocks ended in 1861, at the onset of the
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are predictable times during which the stock market, and certain groups of stocks in particular, do particularly well. The analysis in the first edition of Stocks for the Long Run, published in 1994, was based on long data series analyzed through the early 1990s. The calendar anomalies reported in that edition invited investors to outperform
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that much, if not all, of the anomaly is eliminated. That certainly would be the prediction of the efficient market hypothesis. In this edition of Stocks for the Long Run, I also look at the evidence since 1994 to determine whether the anomaly survived or not. The results are surprising. Some anomalies have weakened and
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steam ahead, although in the United States much of the market’s decline has now been brought forward into August since the first edition of Stocks for the Long Run was published. In fact, since 1995, September returns, measured by the S&P 500 index, have become slightly positive in the United States, but September
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and 5 keep investors focused on the big picture about risk and return. IMPLEMENTING THE PLAN AND THE ROLE OF AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR I wrote Stocks for the Long Run to spell out what returns could be expected on stocks and bonds and to analyze the major factors influencing those returns. Many investors will consider
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represent the best way to accumulate wealth in the long run, remains as true today as it was when I published the first edition of Stocks for the Long Run in 1994. NOTES Chapter 1 1. Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, Security Analysis, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1934, p. 11. 2. Roger Lowenstein, “A Common
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, 166–168 transaction costs falling and, 170 yield reversals in, 157–159 “Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation: Year-by-Year Historical Returns (1926–74),” 12 Stocks for the Long Run , previous editions on calendar anomalies, 325 Glassman and Hassett on, 16 on investment advisors, 377 on long-term bonds, 96 real returns on stocks in
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by John Y. Campbell and Tarun Ramadorai · 25 Jul 2025
Chan, and Luis M. Viceira, “A Multivariate Model of Strategic and Asset Allocation,” Journal of Financial Economics 67 (2003): 41–80; and Jeremy J. Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies, 6th ed. (McGraw-Hill, 2022). A simple way to see the point is
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do was sit back and let your money compound. But, of course, successful investing looks easy when you’re not the one doing it. “Hold stocks for the long run,” you’ll hear. It’s good advice. But do you know how hard it is to maintain a long-term outlook when stocks are collapsing
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experience. Degrees of belief have a substantial emotional component. We can also approach the stock market from a propensity perspective. According to Jeremy Siegel’s Stocks for the Long Run, U.S. stocks have generated annual real returns just under 7 percent over the past 200 years, including many subperiods within that time.4 The
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that it’s hard to take advantage of it, we turn to Jeremy Siegel’s excellent analysis of the Nifty Fifty in his investment classic Stocks for the Long Run.6 The Nifty Fifty were the leading growth stocks in the early 1970s and had high growth rate expectations and price/earnings (P/E) multiples
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John Rennie, “Editor’s Commentary: The Cold Odds Against Columbia,” Scientific American, February 7, 2003. 3 Gigerenzer, Calculated Risks, 26-28. 4 Jeremy J. Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run, 3rd ed. (New York: McGraw Hill, 2002), 13. 5 Michael J. Mauboussin and Kristen Bartholdson, “Long Strange Trip: Thoughts on Stock Market Returns,” Credit Suisse
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explanation, see Peter L. Bernstein, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1996), 122-23. 6 Jeremy J. Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run, 3rd ed. (New York: McGraw Hill, 2002), 150-56. 7 Joseph Fuller and Michael C. Jensen, “Dare to Keep Your Stock Price Low,” The Wall
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. Web site. http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/. Shleifer, Andrei. Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000. Siegel, Jeremy J. Stocks for the Long Run. 3rd ed. New York: McGraw Hill, 2002. Sklansky, David. The Theory of Poker. 4th ed. Henderson, Nev.: Two Plus Two Publishing, 1999. Slovic, Paul, Melissa
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speculation Stalin, Josef stall point Steinhardt, Michael stock market: as complex adaptive system; crash of 1987, investor diversity and outperforming stocks parallels with insect colonies Stocks for the Long Run (Siegel) strategic options strategy. See competitive strategy streaks of success luck and skill and stress long-term focus required loss of control and predictability physical
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York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2003. Nicholas, Joseph. Investing in Hedge Funds: Strategies for the New Marketplace. New York: Bloomberg Press, 2005. Siegel, Jeremy J. Stocks for the Long Run. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2002. Soros, George. The Alchemy of Finance. Hoboken, N.J: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1987. Swensen, David F. Pioneering Portfolio Management
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a government that does not default on its debt), returns have averaged between 5% and 6% over the same holding periods. In his famous book Stocks for the Long Run, Jeremy J. Siegel (1994) argued that real returns (nominal returns adjusted for inflation) in equities had been remarkably stable over many different periods and different
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: Princeton University Press. Shiller, R. J. (2003). From efficient markets theory to behavioral finance. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 83–104. Siegel, J. (1994). Stocks for the long run (2nd ed.). New York, NY: Irwin. Siegel, J. (1998). Valuing growth stocks: Revisiting the nifty fifty. The American Association of Individual Investors Journal [online]. Available
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boom years, investors were much more concerned with capital gains than they were with dividends. To reverse this trend, finance professor Jeremy Siegel, author of Stocks for the Long Run, and two of his colleagues recently proposed eliminating the corporate dividend tax and making dividends deductible. The bottom line of bottom-line investing is that
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bonds are generally safer and less volatile than stocks, although the latter have a higher rate of return. In fact, as Jeremy Siegel reports in Stocks for the Long Run, the average annual rate of return for stocks between 1802 and 1997 was 8.4 percent; the rate on treasury bills over the same period
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Number, New York, Basic Books, 1998. Ross, Sheldon, Probability, New York, Macmillan, 1976. Ross, Sheldon, Mathematical Finance, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1999. Siegel, Jeremy J., Stocks for the Long Run, New York, McGraw-Hill, 1998. Shiller, Robert J., Irrational Exuberance, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 2000. Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, Fooled by Randomness, New York, Texere, 2001
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pay for insider trading and overvaluation price anomalies that lead to predictability price targets of selecting. see stock-picking uniformity of positive ratings value stocks Stocks for the Long Run (Siegel) stop-loss orders strike prices, of stock options subterranean information processing support levels survivorship bias Taleb, Nassim taxes, progressive technical analysis blackjack strategies as
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L. Wall Street Words: An A to Z Guide to Investment Terms for Today’s Investor. 3rd ed. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 2003. Siegel, Jeremy J. Stocks for the Long Run. 4th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2007. Sherman, Andrew J., and Milledge A. Hart. Mergers & Acquisitions From A to Z. 2nd ed. New York: AMACOM
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as well as the increase in personal wealth in recent years further supports the inclusion of alternative investments in investors’ portfolios. The classic example is Stocks for the Long Run (Siegel 2008), which was popular during the run-up for the stock market. For a review of the return and risk benefits of a wide
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. Sharpe, W.F. “Asset Allocation: Management Style and Performance Measurement.” The Journal of Portfolio Management 18, No. 2 (Winter 1992): 7–19. Siegel, J.J. Stocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies, 4th ed. New York: McGrawHill, 2008. Szado, E., and T. Schneeweis. “Loosening the
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