The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win
by Maria Konnikova · 22 Jun 2020 · 377pp · 117,339 words
had bad cards for the last half an hour. I deserve to win here! I lose over half my chips by refusing to fold—hello, sunk cost fallacy! We’ll be seeing you again, many times. And then, instead of reevaluating, I start to chase the loss: Doesn’t this mean I’m
Logically Fallacious: The Ultimate Collection of Over 300 Logical Fallacies (Academic Edition)
by Bo Bennett · 29 May 2017
Shoehorning Slippery Slope Special Pleading Spiritual Fallacy* Spotlight Fallacy Statement of Conversion Stereotyping Stolen Concept Fallacy Strawman Fallacy Style Over Substance Subjectivist Fallacy Subverted Support Sunk-Cost Fallacy Suppressed Correlative Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy Tokenism Two Wrongs Make a Right Unfalsifiability Unwarranted Contrast Use-Mention Error Weak Analogy Willed Ignorance Wishful Thinking B-List
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the earth as described in the Bible, once covered the earth. It is no longer there today because it was destroyed during Noah’s flood. Sunk-Cost Fallacy (also known as: concorde fallacy) Description: Reasoning that further investment is warranted on the fact that the resources already invested will be lost otherwise, not
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Shoehorning Slippery Slope Special Pleading Spiritual Fallacy* Spotlight Fallacy Statement of Conversion Stereotyping Stolen Concept Fallacy Strawman Fallacy Style Over Substance Subjectivist Fallacy Subverted Support Sunk-Cost Fallacy Suppressed Correlative Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy Tokenism Two Wrongs Make a Right Unfalsifiability Unwarranted Contrast Use-Mention Error Weak Analogy Willed Ignorance Wishful Thinking B-List
Thinking, Fast and Slow
by Daniel Kahneman · 24 Oct 2011 · 654pp · 191,864 words
prediction when we started, we would not have gone into it, but we had already invested a great deal of effort—an instance of the sunk-cost fallacy, which we will look at more closely in the next part of the book. It would have been embarrassing for us—especially for me—to
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or weaker than similar claims?” “We are making an additional investment because we do not want to admit failure. This is an instance of the sunk-cost fallacy.” The Engine of Capitalism The planning fallacy is only one of the manifestations of a pervasive optimistic bias. sid to adtions of aMost of us
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not among the Econ’s concerns. The decision to invest additional resources in a losing account, when better investments are available, is known as the sunk-cost fallacy, a costly mistake that is observed in decisions large and small. Driving into the blizzard because one paid for tickets is a sunk-cost error
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does not carry the same mental accounts and is therefore better able to ignore the sunk costs of past investments in evaluating current opportunities. The sunk-cost fallacy keeps people for too long in poor jobs, unhappy marriages, and unpromising research projects. I have often observed young scientists struggling to salvage a doomed
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better advised to drop it and start a new one. Fortunately, research suggests that at least in some contexts the fallacy can be overcome. The sunk-cost fallacy is identified and taught as a mistake in both economics and business courses, apparently to good effect: there is evidence that graduate students in these
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she will charge tickets for the show if she has lost money. The explanation should already be familiar—this problem involves mental accounting and the sunk-cost fallacy. The different frames evoke different mental accounts, and the significance of the loss depends on the account to which it is posted. When tickets to
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Report,” Remodeling, November 20, 2002. completion times: Brent Flyvbjerg, “From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right,” Project Management Journal 37 (2006): 5–15. sunk-cost fallacy: Hal R. Arkes and Catherine Blumer, “The Psychology of Sunk Cost,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 35 (1985): 124–40. Hal R. Arkes and
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of word; of experts, see expert intuition; predictive, see predictions and forecasts; as recognition; Simon’s definition of Inventor’s Assistance Program investments: stock portfolios; sunk-cost fallacy and Invisible Gorilla, The (Chabris and Simons) irrationality Israel, bombings in Israeli Defense Forces: flight instructors in; interviews in; leaderless group challenge in Israeli Ministry
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, Meryl strength, assessments of structured settlements Stumbling to Happiness (Gilbert) substitution; and mood heuristic for happiness; and 3-D heuristic success, uot sum-like variables sunk-cost fallacy Sunstein, Cass Super Bowl supply and demand surgeons Surowiecki, James surprise survey and gift experiments survival-mortality experiment symbols System 1; characteristics of; conflict between
Rationality: What It Is, Why It Seems Scarce, Why It Matters
by Steven Pinker · 14 Oct 2021 · 533pp · 125,495 words
bad” and in the First Law of Holes: “When you’re in one, stop digging.” One of the most commonly cited human irrationalities is the sunk-cost fallacy, in which people continue to invest in a losing venture because of what they have invested so far rather than in anticipation of what they
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a boring movie, finishing a tedious novel, and staying in a bad marriage are familiar examples. It’s possible that people fall prey to the sunk-cost fallacy as a spillover from playing Escalation (and Chicken), where a reputation for standing one’s ground, no matter how costly, could convince the other player
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exhaust itself first.14 The common rationale is “We fight so that our boys will not have died in vain,” a textbook example of the sunk-cost fallacy but also a tactic in the pathetic quest for a Pyrrhic victory. Many of the bloodiest wars in history were wars of attrition, showing once
The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined
by Steven Pinker · 24 Sep 2012 · 1,351pp · 385,579 words
toughens. His motto would be: “We fight on so that our boys shall not have died in vain.” This mindset, known as loss aversion, the sunk-cost fallacy, and throwing good money after bad, is patently irrational, but it is surprisingly pervasive in human decision-making.65 People stay in an abusive marriage
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mammalian mother faces an expenditure of more calories in suckling the offspring to maturity than she expended in bearing it.108 Nature generally abhors the sunk-cost fallacy, and so we expect mothers to assess the offspring and the circumstances to decide whether to commit themselves to the additional investment or to conserve
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. code of the streets; see also honor cognitive dissonance cognitive illusions, xxiii; see also availability heuristic; cluster illusion; conjunction fallacy; loss aversion; overconfidence; positive illusions; sunk-cost fallacy Cohen, Dov Cohen, Jonathan Cold War end of interstate wars in Europe mutually assured destruction proxy wars superpower confrontations Cole, Michael Collier, Paul Collins, Randall
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, Uncle Tom’s Cabin Straus, Murray Stravinsky, Igor Straw, Margaret Stroop task Sturm und Drang movement Sudan Suedfeld, Peter Sugiyama, Lawrence suicide terrorism Suk, Jeannie sunk-cost fallacy; see also loss aversion Sunstein, Cass superrationality suttee Suttner, Bertha von Sutton, Willie Swift, Jonathan Switzerland Symbionese Liberation Army (SLA) Symons, Donald sympathy; see also
You Are Not So Smart
by David McRaney · 20 Sep 2011 · 270pp · 83,506 words
. They usually ask for more money, like $8. Ownership adds special emotional value to things, even if those things were free. Another bias is the sunk cost fallacy. This is when you’ve spent money on something you don’t want to own or don’t want to do and can’t get
You Are Now Less Dumb: How to Conquer Mob Mentality, How to Buy Happiness, and All the Other Ways to Outsmart Yourself
by David McRaney · 29 Jul 2013 · 280pp · 90,531 words
Better World.” TED Talks, Feb. 2010. Web: Mar. 2011, www.ted.com/talks/jane_mcgonigal_gaming_can_make_a_better_world.html. Schwartz, Barry. “The Sunk-Cost Fallacy: Bush Falls Victim to a Bad New Argument for the Iraq War.” Slate, Sept. 9, 2005. Web: Mar. 2011, www.slate.com/articles/news_and
Rationality: From AI to Zombies
by Eliezer Yudkowsky · 11 Mar 2015 · 1,737pp · 491,616 words
times as common, in the United States.9 Other examples of biases include duration neglect (evaluating experiences without regard to how long they lasted), the sunk cost fallacy (feeling committed to things you’ve spent resources on in the past, when you should be cutting your losses and moving on), and confirmation bias
The Confidence Game: The Psychology of the Con and Why We Fall for It Every Time
by Maria Konnikova · 28 Jan 2016 · 384pp · 118,572 words
Waterway, “To terminate a project in which $1.1 billion has been invested represents an unconscionable mishandling of taxpayers’ dollars.” Thaler termed the phenomenon the sunk-cost fallacy. The sunk-cost effect gives us a continued, strong motivation to believe in something even when the landscape has changed significantly since we first invested
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what was driving the irrational-seeming behavior. What if they spelled it all out and made the red flags and errors clear? What did the sunk-cost fallacy mean in a practical scenario? It would be the equivalent of pointing the Bureau of Reclamation’s leader at every bit of evidence and calling
Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models
by Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann · 17 Jun 2019
spent the resources on the project to date. When you allow these irrecoverable costs to cloud your decision making, you are falling victim to the sunk-cost fallacy. The costs of the project so far, including your time spent, have already been sunk. You can’t get them back. This can be a
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diminishing returns and avoid negative returns. Use commitment and the default effect to avoid present bias, and periodic evaluations to avoid loss aversion and the sunk-cost fallacy. Look for shortcuts via existing design patterns, tools, or clever algorithms. Consider whether you can reframe the problem. 4 Becoming One with Nature BEFORE THE
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, 51, 52 Stroll, Cliff, 290 Structure of Scientific Revolutions, The (Kuhn), 24 subjective versus objective, in organizational culture, 274 suicide, 218 summary statistics, 146, 147 sunk-cost fallacy, 91 superforecasters, 206–7 Superforecasting (Tetlock), 206–7 super models, viii–xii super thinking, viii–ix, 3, 316, 318 surface area, 122 luck, 122, 124
Engineering Security
by Peter Gutmann
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