tail risk

Succeeding With AI: How to Make AI Work for Your Business

by Veljko Krunic  · 29 Mar 2020

. 2012 Aug;arXiv:1208.1189 [q-fin.RM]. Taleb NN, Canetti E, Kinda T, Loukoianova E, Schmieder C. A new heuristic measure of fragility and tail risks: Application to stress testing. IMF Working Papers. 2012 Aug;12. Taleb NN. The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable. 2nd ed. New York

The Acquirer's Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market

by Tobias E. Carlisle  · 13 Oct 2017  · 120pp  · 33,892 words

and his teacher, Benjamin Graham, and other contrarians, including: •billionaire trader Paul Tudor-Jones •venture capitalist billionaire Peter Thiele •global macroinvestor billionaire Michael Steinhardt •billionaire tail-risk hedger Mark Spitznagel I wrote this book so you can read it in a couple of hours. It’s written for my kids, family, and

Shutdown: How COVID Shook the World's Economy

by Adam Tooze  · 15 Nov 2021  · 561pp  · 138,158 words

Europe was, in fact, spared most of these blows, but opinion polls show that people understood coronavirus as an indication of how seriously to take tail risks.56 The year 2020 had been billed as one of climate action. The key date was to have been COP26 in Glasgow in November.57

Age of Greed: The Triumph of Finance and the Decline of America, 1970 to the Present

by Jeff Madrick  · 11 Jun 2012  · 840pp  · 202,245 words

all the annual profits of the company in 2007, insisted the crisis was one of those events so rare it barely showed up statistically—a “tail risk” as it was now called. Bear Stearns CEO Jimmy Cayne (Illustration credit 19.1) Richard Fuld, CEO of Lehman Brothers, about to testify before Congress

Lying for Money: How Fraud Makes the World Go Round

by Daniel Davies  · 14 Jul 2018  · 294pp  · 89,406 words

final ‘why’? Why is there always an incentive to economise on checks, audits and fraud prevention? Because fraud is an unusual condition; it’s a ‘tail risk’. In an advanced, high-trust economy, a business can trade for years without ever seeing a big systematic fraud like Tino De Angelis. And normal

The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine

by Michael Lewis  · 1 Nov 2009  · 265pp  · 93,231 words

fair to say that our risk management division did not stress those losses as well.* It's just simple as that. Those are big fat tail risks that caught us hard, right. That's what happened. TANONA: Okay. Fair enough. I guess the other thing I would question. I am surprised that

Planet Ponzi

by Mitch Feierstein  · 2 Feb 2012  · 393pp  · 115,263 words

play with stuff that you really, truly understand. And stick close to actual market pricing, because only then do you stay close to reality. Long tail risk There’s a variant on risk quantification which carries its own separate hazards. Back in the 1990s, JP Morgan‌—‌then and now, one of the

The Shifts and the Shocks: What We've Learned--And Have Still to Learn--From the Financial Crisis

by Martin Wolf  · 24 Nov 2015  · 524pp  · 143,993 words

announcement but also its tacit acceptance by all member state governments had an extraordinary impact on markets, because it was seen as largely eliminating the tail risk of break-up. As the International Monetary Fund noted in its July 2013 report on the Eurozone: ‘The ECB’s commitment to do “whatever it

Artificial Intelligence: A Guide for Thinking Humans

by Melanie Mitchell  · 14 Oct 2019  · 350pp  · 98,077 words

economist Sendhil Mullainathan, in writing about the dangers of AI, cited the long-tail phenomenon (which I described in chapter 6) in his notion of “tail risk”: We should be afraid. Not of intelligent machines. But of machines making decisions that they do not have the intelligence to make. I am far

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more afraid of machine stupidity than of machine intelligence. Machine stupidity creates a tail risk. Machines can make many many good decisions and then one day fail spectacularly on a tail event that did not appear in their training data

The Long Good Buy: Analysing Cycles in Markets

by Peter Oppenheimer  · 3 May 2020  · 333pp  · 76,990 words

deterioration in data slows (things are still bad but are not deteriorating), and this visibility caps the potential downside risk. Investors respond to the lower tail risk by increasingly accepting lower future expected returns (and higher valuations); the equity risk premium declines and valuations rise as the ‘fear of missing out’ often

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global financial cycle. CEPR Discussion Papers 10936. Mueller-Glissmann, C., Rizzi, A., Wright, I., and Oppenheimer, P. (2018). The balanced bear – Part 2: Chasing your tail risk and balancing the bear. London, UK: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Mukunda, G. (2018). The social and political costs of the financial crisis, 10 years

The Alpha Masters: Unlocking the Genius of the World's Top Hedge Funds

by Maneet Ahuja, Myron Scholes and Mohamed El-Erian  · 29 May 2012  · 302pp  · 86,614 words

The Captured Economy: How the Powerful Enrich Themselves, Slow Down Growth, and Increase Inequality

by Brink Lindsey  · 12 Oct 2017  · 288pp  · 64,771 words

Beyond the 4% Rule: The Science of Retirement Portfolios That Last a Lifetime

by Abraham Okusanya  · 5 Mar 2018  · 130pp  · 32,279 words

Ludicrous: The Unvarnished Story of Tesla Motors

by Edward Niedermeyer  · 14 Sep 2019  · 328pp  · 90,677 words

The Great Displacement: Climate Change and the Next American Migration

by Jake Bittle  · 21 Feb 2023  · 296pp  · 118,126 words

The Glass Half-Empty: Debunking the Myth of Progress in the Twenty-First Century

by Rodrigo Aguilera  · 10 Mar 2020  · 356pp  · 106,161 words

Firefighting

by Ben S. Bernanke, Timothy F. Geithner and Henry M. Paulson, Jr.  · 16 Apr 2019

The Rise of Carry: The Dangerous Consequences of Volatility Suppression and the New Financial Order of Decaying Growth and Recurring Crisis

by Tim Lee, Jamie Lee and Kevin Coldiron  · 13 Dec 2019  · 241pp  · 81,805 words

The Best Business Writing 2013

by Dean Starkman  · 1 Jan 2013  · 514pp  · 152,903 words

Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World

by Adam Tooze  · 31 Jul 2018  · 1,066pp  · 273,703 words

Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve Is Bad for America

by Danielle Dimartino Booth  · 14 Feb 2017  · 479pp  · 113,510 words

The Fifth Risk

by Michael Lewis  · 1 Oct 2018  · 157pp  · 53,125 words

Fool's Gold: How the Bold Dream of a Small Tribe at J.P. Morgan Was Corrupted by Wall Street Greed and Unleashed a Catastrophe

by Gillian Tett  · 11 May 2009  · 311pp  · 99,699 words

The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-First Century's Greatest Dilemma

by Mustafa Suleyman  · 4 Sep 2023  · 444pp  · 117,770 words

Capital Ideas Evolving

by Peter L. Bernstein  · 3 May 2007

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner  · 14 Sep 2015  · 317pp  · 100,414 words

Money and Power: How Goldman Sachs Came to Rule the World

by William D. Cohan  · 11 Apr 2011  · 1,073pp  · 302,361 words

Never Let a Serious Crisis Go to Waste: How Neoliberalism Survived the Financial Meltdown

by Philip Mirowski  · 24 Jun 2013  · 662pp  · 180,546 words

Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State

by Paul Tucker  · 21 Apr 2018  · 920pp  · 233,102 words

Young Money: Inside the Hidden World of Wall Street's Post-Crash Recruits

by Kevin Roose  · 18 Feb 2014  · 269pp  · 83,307 words

Capital Allocators: How the World’s Elite Money Managers Lead and Invest

by Ted Seides  · 23 Mar 2021  · 199pp  · 48,162 words

Unknown Market Wizards: The Best Traders You've Never Heard Of

by Jack D. Schwager  · 2 Nov 2020

The Little Book of Hedge Funds

by Anthony Scaramucci  · 30 Apr 2012  · 162pp  · 50,108 words

Financial Market Meltdown: Everything You Need to Know to Understand and Survive the Global Credit Crisis

by Kevin Mellyn  · 30 Sep 2009  · 225pp  · 11,355 words

The Joys of Compounding: The Passionate Pursuit of Lifelong Learning, Revised and Updated

by Gautam Baid  · 1 Jun 2020  · 1,239pp  · 163,625 words

All the Devils Are Here

by Bethany McLean  · 19 Oct 2010  · 543pp  · 157,991 words

A Man for All Markets

by Edward O. Thorp  · 15 Nov 2016  · 505pp  · 142,118 words

Smart Money: How High-Stakes Financial Innovation Is Reshaping Our WorldÑFor the Better

by Andrew Palmer  · 13 Apr 2015  · 280pp  · 79,029 words

Them And Us: Politics, Greed And Inequality - Why We Need A Fair Society

by Will Hutton  · 30 Sep 2010  · 543pp  · 147,357 words

Refuge: Transforming a Broken Refugee System

by Alexander Betts and Paul Collier  · 29 Mar 2017

More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of a New Elite

by Sebastian Mallaby  · 9 Jun 2010  · 584pp  · 187,436 words

Extreme Money: Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk

by Satyajit Das  · 14 Oct 2011  · 741pp  · 179,454 words

A Demon of Our Own Design: Markets, Hedge Funds, and the Perils of Financial Innovation

by Richard Bookstaber  · 5 Apr 2007  · 289pp  · 113,211 words

Foolproof: Why Safety Can Be Dangerous and How Danger Makes Us Safe

by Greg Ip  · 12 Oct 2015  · 309pp  · 95,495 words

The Euro and the Battle of Ideas

by Markus K. Brunnermeier, Harold James and Jean-Pierre Landau  · 3 Aug 2016  · 586pp  · 160,321 words

The Default Line: The Inside Story of People, Banks and Entire Nations on the Edge

by Faisal Islam  · 28 Aug 2013  · 475pp  · 155,554 words

The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World

by Niall Ferguson  · 13 Nov 2007  · 471pp  · 124,585 words

How Markets Fail: The Logic of Economic Calamities

by John Cassidy  · 10 Nov 2009  · 545pp  · 137,789 words

Efficiently Inefficient: How Smart Money Invests and Market Prices Are Determined

by Lasse Heje Pedersen  · 12 Apr 2015  · 504pp  · 139,137 words

Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea

by Mark Blyth  · 24 Apr 2013  · 576pp  · 105,655 words

Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises

by Timothy F. Geithner  · 11 May 2014  · 593pp  · 189,857 words

The Butterfly Defect: How Globalization Creates Systemic Risks, and What to Do About It

by Ian Goldin and Mike Mariathasan  · 15 Mar 2014  · 414pp  · 101,285 words

Finance and the Good Society

by Robert J. Shiller  · 1 Jan 2012  · 288pp  · 16,556 words

MONEY Master the Game: 7 Simple Steps to Financial Freedom

by Tony Robbins  · 18 Nov 2014  · 825pp  · 228,141 words

Escape From Model Land: How Mathematical Models Can Lead Us Astray and What We Can Do About It

by Erica Thompson  · 6 Dec 2022  · 250pp  · 79,360 words

On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything

by Nate Silver  · 12 Aug 2024  · 848pp  · 227,015 words

Investment: A History

by Norton Reamer and Jesse Downing  · 19 Feb 2016

Commodity Trading Advisors: Risk, Performance Analysis, and Selection

by Greg N. Gregoriou, Vassilios Karavas, François-Serge Lhabitant and Fabrice Douglas Rouah  · 23 Sep 2004

Inside the House of Money: Top Hedge Fund Traders on Profiting in a Global Market

by Steven Drobny  · 31 Mar 2006  · 385pp  · 128,358 words

Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb  · 20 Feb 2018  · 306pp  · 82,765 words

The Crisis of Crowding: Quant Copycats, Ugly Models, and the New Crash Normal

by Ludwig B. Chincarini  · 29 Jul 2012  · 701pp  · 199,010 words

Red-Blooded Risk: The Secret History of Wall Street

by Aaron Brown and Eric Kim  · 10 Oct 2011  · 483pp  · 141,836 words

Market Sense and Nonsense

by Jack D. Schwager  · 5 Oct 2012  · 297pp  · 91,141 words

Python for Finance

by Yuxing Yan  · 24 Apr 2014  · 408pp  · 85,118 words

Alpha Trader

by Brent Donnelly  · 11 May 2021

High-Frequency Trading: A Practical Guide to Algorithmic Strategies and Trading Systems

by Irene Aldridge  · 1 Dec 2009  · 354pp  · 26,550 words

In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: The Stories, Voices, and Key Insights of the Pioneers Who Shaped the Way We Invest

by Andrew W. Lo and Stephen R. Foerster  · 16 Aug 2021  · 542pp  · 145,022 words

Safe Haven: Investing for Financial Storms

by Mark Spitznagel  · 9 Aug 2021  · 231pp  · 64,734 words

Big Data and the Welfare State: How the Information Revolution Threatens Social Solidarity

by Torben Iversen and Philipp Rehm  · 18 May 2022

How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors Behind Every Successful Project, From Home Renovations to Space Exploration

by Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner  · 16 Feb 2023  · 353pp  · 97,029 words

Chaos Kings: How Wall Street Traders Make Billions in the New Age of Crisis

by Scott Patterson  · 5 Jun 2023  · 289pp  · 95,046 words

Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb  · 27 Nov 2012  · 651pp  · 180,162 words

Stigum's Money Market, 4E

by Marcia Stigum and Anthony Crescenzi  · 9 Feb 2007  · 1,202pp  · 424,886 words

Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy

by Raghuram Rajan  · 24 May 2010  · 358pp  · 106,729 words

Expected Returns: An Investor's Guide to Harvesting Market Rewards

by Antti Ilmanen  · 4 Apr 2011  · 1,088pp  · 228,743 words

The Invisible Hands: Top Hedge Fund Traders on Bubbles, Crashes, and Real Money

by Steven Drobny  · 18 Mar 2010  · 537pp  · 144,318 words

Beyond Diversification: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Asset Allocation

by Sebastien Page  · 4 Nov 2020  · 367pp  · 97,136 words

The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions

by Victor Haghani and James White  · 27 Aug 2023  · 314pp  · 122,534 words

Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least

by Antti Ilmanen  · 24 Feb 2022