technology bubble

Money in the Metaverse: Digital Assets, Online Identities, Spatial Computing and Why Virtual Worlds Mean Real Business

by David G. W. Birch and Victoria Richardson  · 28 Apr 2024  · 249pp  · 74,201 words

McConnell have written in some detail about what they call the Metaverse ‘bubble’, and they have examined the economic effects of bubbles by comparing this technology bubble to past ones (Funk et al. 2022). Their view is that the biggest difference is that some goods did emerge from the dot-com bubble

The Everything Blueprint: The Microchip Design That Changed the World

by James Ashton  · 11 May 2023  · 401pp  · 113,586 words

entered the FTSE 100, the exclusive club of the UK’s 100 most valuable listed companies. Its sky-high £6bn valuation was driven by the technology bubble that would soon start to deflate – but it was easy to see why investors were excited. A decade earlier, Saxby calculated that Arm needed to

The Long Good Buy: Analysing Cycles in Markets

by Peter Oppenheimer  · 3 May 2020  · 333pp  · 76,990 words

real returns) SOURCE: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. In an historical context, the period of the technology bubble and its collapse at the end of the 1990s is particularly striking. Equities bought at the top of the technology bubble in 2000 – and even through to 2003 – achieved over the subsequent decade some of the

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-war years of the 1950s and 1960s (coming from low valuations post-war and supported by strong economic growth), as exhibit 2.6 illustrates. The technology bubble of the 1990s created a valuation-led collapse in stock prices, which resulted in a negative ex post (or achieved) ERP for several years. Equities

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fully explain the returns to shareholders over specific periods of time. For example, the end of the final decade of the last century (when the technology bubble burst) was one of unusually strong economic and profit growth in most regions. Inflation was generally low and stable and, in the US and Europe

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, equities did not look particularly cheap versus bonds, but over the following 5 years they significantly outperformed bonds, although this reflected the onset of the technology bubble. Although valuation is clearly not the only factor driving relative returns, it is nonetheless significant. The Impact of Diversification on the Cycle Because equities and

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bond yields and equity prices). For much of the history, the positive correlation between bond and equity prices has generally been the norm. After the technology bubble burst in the late 1990s, however, the reverse occurred. Growth expectations collapsed and easier monetary policy pushed down bond yields. But equities were at such

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respite. Before long, the collapse of the US housing bubble (which was partly fuelled by the lower interest rates that followed the end of the technology bubble) heralded the start of the global financial crisis. Easier monetary policy in the wake of the crisis resulted in lower bond yields and inflation amid

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refers to the fall in dividend yields to below government bond yields: a pattern that continued, in most developed economies, until the collapse of the technology bubble in the late 1990s. In his speech to the ASPF, Ross Goobey presented the long-run historical evidence that the ex post equity risk premium

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forward expectations, began to change from the start of this century in the aftermath of the collapse in equity markets following the end of the technology bubble. In this post-bubble world, equity valuations fell from unrealistically high levels. The onset of the credit crunch, and the deleveraging of balance sheets in

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were associated with generally strong growth and lower risks – an environment that was conducive to value companies. Then, in the period running up to the technology bubble in the late 1990s, there was a sharp rotation in favour of growth stocks when low interest rates were seen as beneficial to growth companies

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those in traditional industries (often referred to at the time as ‘old economy’) where demand was mature. In the wake of the collapse of the technology bubble, many of these growth stocks (and technology stocks in particular) experienced the biggest falls in valuations. Indeed, at the time, the gap in valuations between

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France Telecom in 1997 and made a $10.4 billion secondary offering a year later (as the fervor for telecom companies accelerated around the expanding technology bubble). The secular trend was punctuated temporarily by a (sharp but short-lived) crash in 1987 before lower interest rates and a continuation of economic growth

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bull market was buffeted once again by the 1998 Asia crisis, but a decisive policy response resulted in looser money, which helped to propel the technology bubble of the late 1990s. When this bubble eventually burst, it brought to an end the secular uptrend that had started in 1982. 2009 Onwards: The

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1873: The railway bubble in the US 1920s: The stock market boom in the US 1980s: The land and stock bubble in Japan 1990s: The technology bubble, global 2007: The housing/banking bubble in the US (and Europe). When reviewing these bubbles, and their eventual collapse, there are some common threads and

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sales than America's largest company, General Motors.10 A more recent expression of confidence and, eventually, overvaluation came prior to the collapse of the technology bubble in the late 1990s. Before this bubble had burst, shares in new companies were rising exponentially. When the internet-based company Yahoo! made its initial

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country [England] has never been more beneficially employed.’ This was shortly before the epic collapse of the railway bubble in Great Britain. Similar to the technology bubble that came about a century and a half later, investors correctly identified the transformational impact of the latest innovations but ultimately overstated the potential returns

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June 2015. As global growth slowed and concerns about US interest rates intensified, the stock market then collapsed by 48% through to March 2016. The technology bubble that developed in many countries in the late 1990s became more broad-based and fuelled companies across the technology, telecom and media industries (commonly referred

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) wrote that ‘instead of judging the market by established standards of value, the new era based its standards of value upon the market price’. The technology bubble of the 1990s also revealed its fair share of scandals and irregularities. Perhaps the most famous was that of Enron, a company that Fortune magazine

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–18. 18 Stephen King of HSBC wrote a report ‘Bubble Trouble’ in which he identified significant risks of overvaluations and potential economic consequences before the technology bubble burst in 2000. 19 See Masson, P. (2001). Globalization facts and figures. IMF Policy Discussion Paper No. 01/4 [online]. Available at https://www.imf

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the period of the ‘Great Moderation’ because of its stable growth and low inflation, it came to an end largely as a result of the technology bubble in equity markets at the end of the century. But, since then, macro volatility has fallen again. Typical drivers of past recessions, such as industrial

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more likely it is that volatility-adjusted returns will rise. For equity investors, these considerations are particularly important. Equities bought at the top of the technology bubble in 2000, for example, achieved among the worst 10-year holding returns in over 100 years because the starting valuations were so high. Similarly, the

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–149, 155–156, 158, 160–161, 162, 164 technology 12–15 1990s 16–17 Asia crisis 108, 133 equity cycle 57 S&P concentration 114 technology bubble 33, 93–94, 149–150, 156–157, 158–159, 161, 164 2000-2007 equity cycle 57 2007-2009 financial crisis 169–174 emerging markets 171

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185 Glasnost 14 Glass-Steagall Act, 1933 132 global growth 182–183 globalisation 14–16 global relative performance 193–196 global sales growth 212 global technology bubble 33, 93–94, 149–150, 156–157, 158–159, 161, 164 Goetzmann, F. 151 ‘Golden Age of Capitalism’ 129–131 Gold Standard 130 see also

Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles

by William Quinn and John D. Turner  · 5 Aug 2020  · 297pp  · 108,353 words

number of companies that went public during the bubble.71 The lack of any silver lining underlines a key difference between technological and political bubbles. Technology bubbles often involve large sums of money flowing into extremely innovative sectors of the economy, which might 150 JAPAN IN THE 1980S otherwise have trouble attracting

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fourth industrial revolution technologies – biotech, nanotechnology and artificial intelligence – have been developed by companies, not individual entrepreneurs. However, unlike during the dot-com and other technology bubbles, the funding for these companies comes from venture capitalists (VCs) and institutional investors rather than stock markets. Notably, press commentators have referred to the ‘tech

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new 215 BOOM AND BUST technology? Second, how might a government prevent itself from, or be prevented from, creating a socially destructive bubble? During a technology bubble, the government can attack any area of the bubble triangle, but it is easiest for them to tighten monetary policy or macroprudential standards to reduce

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fuelling the bubble. However, such policies are not without their dangers.10 It is difficult to identify with confidence whether or not there is a technology bubble or, if there is one, when it will burst.11 Ben Bernanke, former Chair of the Federal Reserve, has suggested that central banks should intervene

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trading system.16 John Maynard Keynes also suggested that such a tax would limit the influence of speculators upon stock markets.17 If leaning against technology bubbles is impractical, then governments and central banks can simply clean up the mess from the collapse of the bubble by soothing the pain of its

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halt a run out of real and illiquid financial assets into money by making more money available’.20 After the bursting of the dot-com technology bubble, the Federal Reserve eased monetary policy. However, this action may have created a moral hazard problem and therefore increased the likelihood of another bubble. What

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corrode the ability of investors to think clearly and understand the complexities of the financial system.30 CAVEAT INVESTOR Governments are typically unwilling to prick technology bubbles, and are often reluctant to tie their own hands to prevent themselves from creating political bubbles. The incentives for the fourth estate mean that it

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out of the question, because the longer the duration of the bubble, the costlier it is to hold a short position. How should investors approach technology bubbles? Since the returns on technology shares are extremely uncertain, perhaps the best way to think about them is as lotteries.32 Most will produce a

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and L. E. Blume (eds.), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008. Brunnermeier, M. K. and Nagel, S. ‘Hedge funds and the technology bubble’, Journal of Finance, 59, 2,013–40, 2004. Brunnermeier, M. K. and Schnabel, I. ‘Bubbles and central banks: historical perspectives’, Gutenberg School of Management and

Stocks for the Long Run 5/E: the Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies

by Jeremy Siegel  · 7 Jan 2014  · 517pp  · 139,477 words

Effect Other Seasonal Returns Day-of-the-Week Effects What’s an Investor to Do? Chapter 22 Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing The Technology Bubble, 1999 to 2001 Behavioral Finance Fads, Social Dynamics, and Stock Bubbles Excessive Trading, Overconfidence, and the Representative Bias Prospect Theory, Loss Aversion, and the Decision

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the prime lessons learned from long-term analysis is that no asset class can stay permanently detached from fundamentals. Stocks had their comeuppance when the technology bubble burst and the financial system crashed. It is quite likely that bondholders will suffer a similar fate as the liquidity created by the world’s

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and Cisco had the two largest market values in the world, and Nasdaq-listed Intel and Oracle were also among the top 10. When the technology bubble burst, trading and prices on the Nasdaq sank rapidly. The Nasdaq Index declined from over 5,000 in March 2000 to 1,150 in October

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because timely price data were not available to compute the index until the Nasdaq exchange began in 1971. In 2000, at the peak of the technology bubble, 49 new firms were added to the index, the highest since Nasdaq stocks were included in 1976. In 2003, the number of additions fell to

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dry period that lasted 17 years, as they underperformed large stocks, especially in the late 1990s as the technology boom gained momentum. But when the technology bubble burst, small stocks strongly outperformed once again. From the March 2000 peak through 2012, despite the severe intervening bear market, small stocks enjoyed a 7

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fall of 1999, several months prior to the peak in the technology and Internet bubble that dominated markets at the turn of the century. THE TECHNOLOGY BUBBLE, 1999 TO 2001 TIME: OCTOBER 1999 Dave: Jen, I’ve made some important investment decisions. Our portfolio contains nothing but these “old fogy” stocks like

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had to be something there. If I didn’t buy the Internet stocks, I thought that I was missing out. IC: I know. The Internet/technology bubble is a perfect example of social pressures influencing stock prices. The conversations around the office, the newspaper headlines, and the analysts’ predictions—they all fed

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, 350–352 prospect theory in, 347–349 representative bias in, 345–347 rules vs., 376 social dynamics in, 343–344 stock bubbles in, 343–344 technology bubble, 1999–2001 in, 340–342 Benchmarks, 358–359 Berkshire Hathaway, 203–205, 362–363 Bernanke, Fed Chairman Ben on central banks, 33–35 on innovation

The Price of Inequality: How Today's Divided Society Endangers Our Future

by Joseph E. Stiglitz  · 10 Jun 2012  · 580pp  · 168,476 words

, 142, 159, 167, 208, 209, 211, 212, 214–15, 218, 221, 223, 224, 225, 226, 256, 274, 275, 294, 312, 335, 344, 360, 383, 394 technology: bubble in, 85, 87, 88, 89, 211, 243, 391, 396 economic impact of, 30, 79, 80 government investment in, 15, 93, 115, 155, 174, 217, 267

Investment: A History

by Norton Reamer and Jesse Downing  · 19 Feb 2016

away from the firm, and he started Galleon Group in 1997 with several coworkers from Needham. Galleon was extremely successful despite the bursting of the technology bubble. In fact, the firm was up over 40 percent from 2000 to 2002 when the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) was down 37

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may impair an array of institutions at once. And so, we live in the age of a highly financialized economy. Now why, then, did the technology bubble not produce severe economic ramifications? After all, the disaster in the stock market surely should have caused the real economy to seize. Not necessarily. There

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were likely two related reasons why the technology bubble did not cause severe problems for the real economy. First, even though the risk of owning the technology enterprises was socialized through the stock market

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low-risk capital and as such could build more liabilities against them, and when that turned out not to be true, disaster struck. Furthermore, the technology bubble did not trigger a major credit event. Surely, tech companies themselves had a very difficult time accessing any form of capital in the wake of

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last 25 years or so, we have seen the crash of 1987, the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998, the popping of the technology bubble in the late 1990s and into early 2000, and the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009. To build robust theories, or even effective working models

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categories listed. Much of this is due to the strong bull market of the 1990s and the run-up again in equities markets between the technology bubble and the global financial crisis. Timing shorts, as Jones himself found decades ago, is quite difficult. After all, if one’s premise is that an

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equity markets, institutional private equity firms gained prominence and the industry was once again on an upswing—until, at the turn of the century, the technology bubble burst. This was followed by yet another upswing that culminated in, and contributed to, the 2008 financial crisis. Because many leveraged buyout private equity firms

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actively managed ETFs will have on the industry.61 Exchange-traded funds, as an asset class, immediately caught on. Even with the collapse of the technology bubble and the dramatic fall in equity indices around the globe, assets in ETFs remained steady, and this growth accelerated tremendously at the turn of the

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, 124; ETFs and, 286; foundations and, 126–27; pensions and, 109–10, 112; REITs and, 281 Tax Reform Act of 1969, 126 Technical Revolution, 70 technology: bubble, 187, 223–24, 246, 263, 276, 287; public markets and, 89–90; venture capital and, 277–79 tegata (promissory notes), 46 telegraph, 89 telephone, 90

The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World

by Niall Ferguson  · 13 Nov 2007  · 471pp  · 124,585 words

rate increase of March 1997 was scarcely sufficient to dispel that exuberance. Partly, Greenspan and his colleagues seem to have underestimated the momentum of the technology bubble. As early as December 1995, with the Dow just past the 5,000 mark, members of the Fed’s Open Market Committee speculated that the

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Black Monday (1987) 166 on bond market 65 and Enron 168-70 on ‘irrational exuberance’ 121 and mortgage crisis 266 successes of 168-9 and technology bubble 167-8 Greenwich, Connecticut 320 Griffin, Kenneth C. 2 Grinspun, Bernardo 111 Gross, William 68 gross domestic product (GDP): financial sectors and 5 international data

Stocks for the Long Run, 4th Edition: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long Term Investment Strategies

by Jeremy J. Siegel  · 18 Dec 2007

, Production, and Equity Capital 162 Cycles in Foreign Markets 164 The Japanese Market Bubble 165 The Emerging Market Bubble 166 The New Millennium and the Technology Bubble 167 Diversification in World Markets 168 Principles of Diversification 168 “Efficient” Portfolios: Formal Analysis 168 Should You Hedge Foreign Exchange Risk? 173 Sector Diversification 173

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315 Day-of-the-Week Effects 316 What’s an Investor to Do? 318 Chapter 19 Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing 319 The Technology Bubble, 1999 to 2001 320 Behavioral Finance 322 Fads, Social Dynamics, and Stock Bubbles 323 Excessive Trading, Overconfidence, and the Representative Bias 325 Prospect Theory, Loss

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the top 10. By 2007 Microsoft was the only Nasdaq stock among U.S. stocks ranked in the top 10 by market value. When the technology bubble burst, trading and prices on the Nasdaq sunk rapidly. The Nasdaq Index declined from over 5,000 in March 2000 to 1,150 in October

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-the-counter” (OTC) market and timely price data were not available until the Nasdaq Exchange began in 1971. In 2000, at the peak of the technology bubble, 49 new firms were added to the index, the highest since Nasdaq stocks were included in 1976. In 2003, just after the bottom of the

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values exceeded $9 trillion, by far the greatest loss in history. The bear market came in two waves. The first was the popping of the technology bubble, which sent the Nasdaq index plummeting by nearly 70 percent by the summer of 2001. Nontech stocks held up very well until the second wave

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options should be expensed when granted. Technology firms, heavy users of options, lobbied Congress to block the FASB from instituting those rules. But after the technology bubble broke, there was clear professional sentiment that options should be expensed, and the FASB set 2006 as the year that firms must expense options. Many

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when there has been a basic structural shift in the economy and when there has not. Admittedly, there are too many times, such as the technology bubble at the end of the last century, when speculators used “new era” economics to justify unreasonably high prices. But there are also times when there

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dry period that lasted 17 years as they underperformed large stocks, especially in the late 1990s as the technology boom gained momentum. But when the technology bubble burst, small stocks strongly outperformed once again. From the March 2000 peak through 2006, despite the severe intervening bear market, small stocks enjoyed a 7

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dollars, dwarfing the aggregate stock values of all but a handful of countries. Valuations reached and in some cases exceeded those attained in the great technology bubble of 2000 and were far above anything known in the U.S. or European markets. During his travels to Japan in 1987, Leo Melamed, president

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years of investing abroad vanished, leaving many questioning the wisdom of international investing. The New Millennium and the Technology Bubble The last three years of the twentieth century, marked by the emergence of a huge technology bubble, saw strong gains in all of the world stock markets, with the European and American markets surging

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to all-time highs. But this was not to last. A few months into the new millennium, the technology bubble burst and stocks fell into a severe bear market. All of the developed countries’ markets fell by at least 50 percent: from March 2000 through

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the moving-average strategy is that it keeps investors in major bull markets and out of major bear markets. The strategy worked beautifully during the technology bubble of 1999 to 2001. Using the timing strategy, an investor would have entered the Nas12 Note that during the 1990 to 2006 period, the risk

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fall of 1999, several months prior to the peak in the technology and Internet bubble that dominated markets at the turn of the century. THE TECHNOLOGY BUBBLE, 1999 TO 2001 TIME: OCTOBER 1999 Dave: Jen, I’ve made some important investment decisions. Our portfolio contains nothing but these “old fogy” stocks like

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to be something there. If I didn’t buy the Internet stocks, I thought that I was missing out. IC: I know. The Internet and technology bubble is a perfect example of social pressures influencing stock prices. The conversations around the office, the newspaper headlines, and the analysts’ predictions—they all fed

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–182 Japanese market bubble and, 165 largest non-U.S.-based companies and, 182–184 population, production, and equity capital and, 162, 162i, 163i, 164 technology bubble and, 167 Global Marine, 63 Global stocks, 18–20, 19i Global Wealth Allocation, 356 Globex, 258–260 Goethe, Johann Wolfgang, 37q Goetzmann, William, 12n, 18n

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(Cont.): randomness of stock prices and, 291–292, 293i, 294 trending markets and price reversals and, 294–295 Technology boom of 1999-2001, 320–322 Technology bubble, 167 Telecommunications services sector: in GICS, 53 global shares in, 175i, 177 Telefonica, 177 Templeton, John, 65q, 66, 161q Tennessee Coal and Iron, 47 in

Leading From the Emerging Future: From Ego-System to Eco-System Economies

by Otto Scharmer and Katrin Kaufer  · 14 Apr 2013  · 351pp  · 93,982 words

the overuse and mismanagement of the ecological and social commons in epic proportion. 8. A disconnect between technology and real societal needs. This disconnect generates technology bubbles that serve the well-being of a few in already overserved markets. For example, most R&D spending by the pharmaceutical industry caters to markets

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between real societal needs and, 7 evolution of, 103–105 as force of liberation vs. force of dependency, 106–107 origin of the term, 108 Technology bubble, 7 Technology disconnect, 46 Technology fix, 107 Technology-fix myth, debunking the, 107 Text messaging, 199–200 Theory U debates over agricultural sustainability and, 224

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Good Economics for Hard Times: Better Answers to Our Biggest Problems

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Concentrated Investing

by Allen C. Benello  · 7 Dec 2016

Smarter Investing

by Tim Hale  · 2 Sep 2014  · 332pp  · 81,289 words

Systematic Trading: A Unique New Method for Designing Trading and Investing Systems

by Robert Carver  · 13 Sep 2015

Dancing in the Glory of Monsters: The Collapse of the Congo and the Great War of Africa

by Jason Stearns  · 29 Mar 2011  · 487pp  · 139,297 words

The Art of Execution: How the World's Best Investors Get It Wrong and Still Make Millions

by Lee Freeman-Shor  · 8 Sep 2015  · 121pp  · 31,813 words