the scientific method Concepts

Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals

by David Aronson · 1 Nov 2006

received a BA in philosophy from Lafayette College in 1967 and served in the Peace Corps in El Salvador. xi Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David R. Aronson Copyright © 2007 David R. Aronson Introduction T echnical analysis (TA) is the study of

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data. The rules are evaluated for statistical signiﬁcance using tests designed to cope with the problem of data-mining bias. Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David R. Aronson Copyright © 2007 David R. Aronson PA RT I Methodological, Psychological, Philosophical, and Statistical Foundations

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Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David R. Aronson Copyright © 2007 David R. Aronson CHAPTER 1 Objective Rules and Their Evaluation T his chapter

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than ﬁnding rules that can be used as stand-alone trading strategies it was decided not to impose trading costs. Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David R. Aronson Copyright © 2007 David R. Aronson CHAPTER 2 The Illusory Validity of Subjective Technical Analysis The

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rigorous than visual analysis and intuition are needed to ﬁnd the exploitable order that may exist in ﬁnancial market ﬂuctuations. THE ANTIDOTE TO ILLUSORY KNOWLEDGE: THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD This chapter examined many ways we can be fooled into adopting erroneous knowledge. The best antidote ever invented for this problem is the scientiﬁc method

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, the subject of the next chapter. Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David R. Aronson Copyright © 2007 David R. Aronson CHAPTER 3 The Scientiﬁc Method and Technical Analysis T A

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was insufﬁcient for learning about the world. He saw the need for an empirical approach based on inductive logic—observation followed by generalization. Its in- The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 105 vention was his most signiﬁcant contribution to science. However, he failed in the application of his own invention. At his institution

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the Church to publish his ﬁndings, it subsequently withdrew the permission and Path Path Predicted by Aristotelian Physics FIGURE 3.1 Prediction versus observation. Observed The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 107 found him guilty ex post facto. As punishment, he was forced to give up astronomy and live out his days under

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. This eliminates from consideration subjective assessments that are inherently private and accessible by only one person. Inner thoughts and emotive states cannot be shared ac- The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 109 curately with others, even when that is the intent of an artist, poet, writer, or composer. In Naked Lunch, William

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ﬁtting (e.g., regression analysis). Currently, TA is primarily constrained to the latter because theories of TA are just now being formulated (see Chapter 7). The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 111 THE ROLE OF LOGIC IN SCIENCE Scientiﬁc knowledge commands respect, in part because its conclusions are based on logic. By relying

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category, for example All humans are mortal, and ends with a conclusion that states a truth about a speciﬁc instance, for example Socrates is mortal. The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 113 Premise 1: All humans are mortal. Premise 2: Socrates is a human. Therefore: Socrates is mortal. Notice that the argument’s

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two premises. Moreover, if it has valid form and its premises are factually true, then the conclusion of the conditional syllogisms must also be true. The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 117 Valid Forms of the Conditional Syllogism. There are two valid forms of the conditional syllogism; afﬁrming the antecedent and denying the

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Consequent If A, then B. Not B. Therefore, Not A. If A, then B. B. Therefore, A. FIGURE 3.4 Conditional syllogisms: general form. 121 The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis Valid Invalid Affirming The Antecedent Fallacy: Denying Antecedent If a dog, then has 4 legs. It is a dog. Therefore, has 4

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enumerates the evidence contained in a set of observations, and then draws a general conclusion that pertains to all similar observations outside the enumerated set. The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 123 Premise: Over the past 20 years there have been 1,000 instances in which TA rule X gave a buy signal

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of inference? This section discusses the keys steps in the method’s development and the milestones in our deepening understanding of how and why it The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 125 works. The reader may wish to skip this historical development and go directly to the summary of the key aspects of

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inductive generalization was the route to wisdom. Rationalists, on the other hand, contended that pure deductive reasoning from self-evident truths was the correct method. The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 127 Hume took issue with both schools of thought and ultimately even with himself. As an empiricist, Hume disparaged the rationalists’ purely

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(predicts) with Y the following conditional proposition would apply: IF X predicts Y, then future instances of X will be followed by instances of Y. The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 129 In cases where the hypothesis asserts that X causes Y, the following conditional proposition would apply: IF X causes Y, then

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under speciﬁed conditions (e.g., back test of a TA rule). Evidence E did not occur under the speciﬁed conditions. Therefore, hypothesis H is false. The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 131 In taking this stance, Popper challenged the prevailing view advocated by a school of philosophy called logical positivism. Just as Francis

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to test statistical hypotheses. The Provisional and Cumulative Nature of Scientiﬁc Knowledge. One implication of Popper’s method of falsiﬁcation is that all existing sci- The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 133 entiﬁc knowledge is provisional. Whatever theory is currently accepted as correct is always a target for empirical challenge and the possibility

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because they make speciﬁc predictions. They may prove to be wrong, but at least they say something of substance. A proposition that cannot generate falsi- The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 135 ﬁable predictions essentially says any outcome can happen. For example, a weather forecast that says, It will be cloudy or sunny

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hence more falsiﬁable than others. When Popper referred to a bold conjecture he was speaking of a highly informative hypothesis from which many falsiﬁable predictions The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 137 could be deduced. The scientist’s job, therefore, is to continually attempt to refute an existing hypothesis and to replace it

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For example, suppose a bold new theory of physics is put forward, one of whose predictions is that it is possible to build an anti- The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 139 gravity device. If true, such a theory would represent a major increase in knowledge. However, if the device fails to work

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true, that new planet’s gravitational effects could explain the aberrant motion of Uranus, which seemed to be in conﬂict with Newton’s laws. The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 141 In addition, if an eighth planet did exist, one of Newton’s laws would predict the exact spot in the sky

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of the studies showing that stocks with these traits were able to earn excess returns. Had EMH theorists done so, it they would have bol- The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 143 stered the information content of EMH with an additional dimension of risk. Instead, EMH theorists invented these risk factors after the

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outcomes deﬁned by X makes clear which future observations would conﬁrm the prediction and, more importantly, which future observations would be in conﬂict with it. The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 145 4. Veriﬁcation: New observations are made in accordance with the op- erations speciﬁed and compared to the predictions. In some sciences

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science is quantitative data, and the tool of choice for drawing conclusions is statistical inference. An important scientiﬁc principle is the preference for simpler expla- The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 147 nations (Okam’s Razor). As such, astounding hypotheses are given serious consideration only after more commonplace hypotheses have been rejected. Sightings

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due to sampling error (see Chapters 4 and 5) and systematic error due to data-mining bias (see Chapter 6). SUMMARY OF KEY ASPECTS OF THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD The following is a summary of the key points of the scientiﬁc method: • No matter how voluminous the evidence, the scientiﬁc method can never

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that can make testable predictions that display genuine predictive power deserve to be retained in the body of TA knowledge. IF TA WERE TO ADOPT THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD This section examines consequences of TA adopting the scientiﬁc method. The Elimination of Subjective TA The most important consequence of TA adopting the scientiﬁc method

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I discuss an algorithm for the automated diction of head and shoulder patterns and test results in the section “Objectiﬁcation of Subjective TA: An Example.” The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 149 Elimination of Meaningless Forecasts It is not practical to assume that all subjective practitioners will follow my call to objectify or

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and so forth. They established the subjective research tradition and postulated the background wisdom that is accepted as true and taught to aspiring practitioners. The The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 151 certiﬁcation exam given by the Market Technicians Association to aspiring Chartered Market Technicians (CMT) exempliﬁes this tradition. The shift to an

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they were not included. ? ? ? ? Head & Shoulders ? Double Bottom Etc. ? Set of All Possible Chart Patterns FIGURE 3.6 Subjective patterns—no deﬁnitive exclusion rules. 153 The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis Not H&S Not DB Not DB Not H&S Head & Shoulders Double Bottom Not H&S Not DB FIGURE 3.7

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than would be possible in actual trading. An extreme example would be assuming access to the Wall Street Journal the day before its publication. 159 The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis Price Completion Rule C D4< D3 E A Neck Line B D D3 D4 Time FIGURE 3.14 Pattern completion rule satisﬁed

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doubtful.47 The head-and-shoulders performed worse on stocks. C&O evaluated the head-and-shoulders on 100 randomly selected equities48 over the pe- The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 161 riod from July 1962 until December 1993. On average, each stock gave one head-and-shoulders signal per year, counting both

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YES RIGOROUS EVALUATION EBTA Objective NO Value Unknown EBTA YES Objective Valuable YES SIGNIFICANT FIGURE 3.16 Subsets of Technical Analysis. NO Objective No Value The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis 163 rules will add value when used in combination with other rules to form complex rules. Evidence-based technical analysis (EBTA) refers

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is illustrated in Figure 3.16. The next three chapters discuss the application of statistical analysis to back-test results. Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David R. Aronson Copyright © 2007 David R. Aronson CHAPTER 4 Statistical Analysis S tatistics is the science of

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interval, in this case 20 percentage points, is derived from the same sampling distribution that is used for hypothesis testing. Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David R. Aronson Copyright © 2007 David R. Aronson CHAPTER 5 Hypothesis Tests and Conﬁdence Intervals TWO TYPES OF

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in approximately 80 of the samples, the true expected return of the rule would be enclosed by the conﬁdence interval. Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David R. Aronson Copyright © 2007 David R. Aronson CHAPTER 6 Data-Mining Bias: The Fool’s Gold of

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placed in the public domain and codes for it will be made available on a web site, www.evidencebasedta.com. Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David R. Aronson Copyright © 2007 David R. Aronson CHAPTER 7 Theories of Nonrandom Price Motion A t the

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some portion of that nonrandom behavior. Ultimately, it is up to each method of TA to prove that it can. Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David R. Aronson Copyright © 2007 David R. Aronson PART II Case Study: Signal Rules for the S&P

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500 Index Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David R. Aronson Copyright © 2007 David R. Aronson CHAPTER 8 Case Study of Rule Data Mining for the

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back span. This completes the description of the rules tested in the case study. Results are presented in Chapter 9. Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David R. Aronson Copyright © 2007 David R. Aronson CHAPTER 9 Case Study Results and the Future of TA

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is essentially unchanging, but computer intelligence is increasing at an exponential rate,63 no other approach to TA makes sense. Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David R. Aronson Copyright © 2007 David R. Aronson APPENDIX Proof That Detrending Is Equivalent to Benchmarking Based on

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the effect of long/short imbalance in a biased market, all you need to do is center the raw returns. Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David R. Aronson Copyright © 2007 David R. Aronson Notes INTRODUCTION 1. Data typically considered by TA includes prices

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Data Mining, 21, 57. 63. R. Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (New York: Penguin Group, 2005). Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David R. Aronson Copyright © 2007 David R. Aronson Index Afﬁrming the consequent, 112–121, 170, 219 Alexander reversal

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